1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply - demand situation is complex. The supply is stable, but demand is weak. The cost support is weakening in the flood season, and the market is expected to oscillate in the range of 8605 - 8875 [6][8]. - For polysilicon, the short - term supply schedule is decreasing, while the demand shows a continuous recovery trend. The cost support is stable, and the market is expected to oscillate in the range of 52660 - 54760 [10]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Views Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: Last week, the supply was 90,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [6]. - **Demand**: Last week, the demand was 81,000 tons, a 1.21% decrease from the previous week. The demand in the downstream sectors such as polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy is in different states [6]. - **Cost**: The production of sample oxygen - passed 553 in Xinjiang is at a loss of 3322 yuan/ton, and the cost support is weakening in the flood season [6]. - **Other factors**: On September 11, the basis of the 11 - contract was 260 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price. The social inventory decreased by 0.73%, and the sample enterprise inventory decreased by 1.55%. The main port inventory decreased by 1.68%. The MA20 is upward, and the 11 - contract futures price closed above the MA20. The net position of the main players is short, and the short position is decreasing [6][8]. Polysilicon - **Supply**: Last week, the production was 31,200 tons, a 3.31% increase from the previous week. The production schedule for September is expected to be 126,700 tons, a 3.79% decrease from the previous month [10]. - **Demand**: The production of silicon wafers last week was 13.88GW, a 0.72% increase from the previous week, and the inventory decreased by 1.78%. The production of battery cells and components is increasing, and the overall demand is recovering [10]. - **Cost**: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 35,620 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 14,430 yuan/ton [10]. - **Other factors**: On September 11, the basis of the 11 - contract was - 2160 yuan/ton, with the spot price lower than the futures price. The weekly inventory increased by 3.79% and is at a low level compared to the same period in history. The MA20 is upward, and the 11 - contract futures price closed above the MA20. The net position of the main players is long, and the long position is decreasing [10]. 3.2 Market Overview Industrial Silicon - Futures prices of different contracts showed varying degrees of increase. For example, the 01 - contract increased by 0.94% [17]. - Spot prices of different grades of industrial silicon also showed increases, such as the price of East China non - oxygen - passed 553 silicon increased by 0.56% [17]. - Inventory data of different types, including social inventory, sample enterprise inventory, and main port inventory, showed a decreasing trend [17]. Polysilicon - Futures prices of different contracts increased. For example, the 01 - contract increased by 1.54% [19]. - Prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components were relatively stable, with small changes in some indicators [19]. - The export volume of battery cells and components increased, and the inventory of some products decreased [19]. 3.3 Price and Cost Trends - **Industrial Silicon**: The price - basis and delivery product spread trends, as well as the cost trends in sample regions, show fluctuations over time [21][38]. - **Polysilicon**: The market price and cost trends show that the price and cost of polysilicon have different change trends in different periods [64]. 3.4 Supply - Demand Balance - **Industrial Silicon**: The weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables show that the supply - demand relationship is in a state of change, with different levels of balance or imbalance in different periods [41][44]. - **Polysilicon**: The monthly supply - demand balance table shows that the supply and demand are also in a dynamic state, with different balance results in different months [67]. 3.5 Downstream Market Trends Organic Silicon - The DMC price, production, and inventory trends show that the production capacity utilization rate is relatively stable, and the inventory has increased [47][53]. - The prices of downstream products such as 107 glue, silicone oil, and raw rubber are relatively stable [49]. Aluminum Alloy - The price, supply, inventory, and production trends of aluminum alloy show that the inventory is at a high level, and the production and import - export situation is complex [56][59]. - The demand in the automotive and wheel - hub sectors is related to the production and sales of automobiles and the export of wheel - hubs [60]. Polysilicon Downstream - **Silicon Wafers**: The price, production, inventory, and demand trends show that the production is increasing, and the inventory is decreasing [70]. - **Battery Cells**: The price, production, and export trends show that the production is increasing, and the export volume is also increasing [73]. - **Photovoltaic Components**: The price, production, inventory, and export trends show that the production and export are increasing, and the inventory is decreasing [76]. - **Photovoltaic Accessories**: The price, production, and import - export trends of photovoltaic accessories such as photovoltaic coating, photovoltaic film, and photovoltaic glass show different change trends [79]. - **Component Composition Cost - Profit**: The cost - profit trends of different components in 210mm components show different profit situations [81].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of soda ash and float glass are currently at historically low levels, with high risks associated with short - selling. Given strong macro - expectations and the "anti - involution" backdrop, the price centers of soda ash and glass are expected to gradually rise. It is not advisable to chase short positions at low prices. Instead, one can wait for long - entry opportunities when prices break upwards [14][84]. - For soda ash, although production and inventory remain high and demand recovery is slow, increasing exports may support prices. For glass, the improvement in real - estate terminal demand is slow, and high production and inventory levels continue to exert pressure on prices. Attention should be paid to the peak - season data during the "Golden September and Silver October" period [14][84]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Soda Ash Report 3.1.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Price**: As of September 2, 2025, the spot market price of soda ash was 1167 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan/ton from the previous week and 79 yuan/ton from the beginning of the previous month. The futures price of the main contract (SA509) closed at 1267 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan/ton from the previous week but up 11 yuan/ton from the beginning of the previous month. The basis was - 100 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the basis rate was - 7.89%, at a relatively low - neutral level in historical statistics [13][19]. - **Cost - profit**: As of August 29, 2025, the production cost of the ammonia - soda process was 1268 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 0.1 yuan/ton; the production cost of the combined - soda process was 1651 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 20 yuan/ton. As the proportion of the natural - soda process increases, the overall cost support for soda ash may be limited [13][30]. - **Supply**: As of August 29, 2025, the weekly production of soda ash was 71.91 tons, a decrease of 5.23 tons from the previous week. The monthly production in August was 331.87 tons, an increase of 15.45 tons from the previous month. Production is expected to remain high in the short term, pressuring prices [13][44]. - **Demand**: In August, the start - up rate and production of float glass increased, driving short - term soda ash demand. However, the increase in float - glass inventory at the end of August may have a negative feedback effect on soda ash demand. The operating daily capacity of photovoltaic glass increased, and the inventory pressure was low. If the start - up rate and capacity increase in the future, it will drive up soda ash demand [13][58]. - **Inventory**: As of August 29, 2025, the in - factory inventory of soda ash was 186.75 tons, an increase of 7.17 tons from the beginning of the month. The inventory is expected to remain high in the short term, pressuring prices [13][69]. - **Import - export**: In July 2025, soda ash imports were 0.32 tons, exports were 16.12 tons, and net exports were 15.80 tons, an increase of 0.25 tons from the previous month. With the current low prices, export volumes are expected to continue to rise, supporting prices [13][64]. 3.1.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Soda Ash Basis**: As of September 2, 2025, the basis was - 100 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the basis rate was - 7.89%, at a relatively low - neutral level in historical statistics [19]. - **Difference between Dense and Light Soda Ash**: As of September 2, 2025, the price difference between dense and light soda ash in North China was 100 yuan/ton, and in East China was 120 yuan/ton, showing little change and remaining within a reasonable range [22]. - **Soda Ash Inter - monthly Spread**: As of September 2, 2025, the spread between the 1 - 5 contracts of soda ash futures was - 80 yuan/ton. Although the short - term fundamentals are difficult to improve rapidly, there are expectations of price increases in the future [25]. 3.1.3 Profit and Cost - **Soda Ash Cost - profit**: As of August 29, 2025, the production cost of the ammonia - soda process was 1268 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 0.1 yuan/ton; the production cost of the combined - soda process was 1651 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 20 yuan/ton. As the proportion of the natural - soda process increases, the overall cost support for soda ash may be limited [30][33]. - **Raw Material Costs**: As of September 2, 2025, the price of raw salt in Northwest China remained unchanged from the previous week, and the price of动力煤 changed little, with a slight decline in some areas. The price of synthetic ammonia changed little from the previous week and remained at a relatively low level year - on - year. These factors have little impact on soda ash prices [36][39]. 3.1.4 Supply and Demand - **Total Production**: As of August 29, 2025, the weekly production of soda ash was 71.91 tons, a decrease of 5.23 tons from the previous week. The monthly production in August was 331.87 tons, an increase of 15.45 tons from the previous month. Production is expected to remain high in the short term, pressuring prices [44]. - **Production of Dense and Light Soda Ash**: As of August 29, 2025, the production of dense soda ash was 38.32 tons, a decrease of 4.2 tons from the previous week, and the production of light soda ash was 33.59 tons, a decrease of 1.03 tons from the previous week. With fewer maintenance plans in September, production is expected to remain high [47]. - **Soda Ash Start - up Rate**: The start - up rate of soda ash in August first increased and then decreased. With fewer planned maintenance enterprises in September, the start - up rate is expected to remain at the current level [50]. - **Soda Ash Demand**: The increase in float - glass production drove short - term soda ash demand, but the increase in float - glass inventory may have a negative impact. The operating daily capacity of photovoltaic glass increased, and if the start - up rate and capacity increase in the future, it will drive up soda ash demand [58][61]. - **Soda Ash Import - export**: In July 2025, soda ash imports were 0.32 tons, exports were 16.12 tons, and net exports were 15.80 tons, an increase of 0.25 tons from the previous month. With the current low prices, export volumes are expected to continue to rise, supporting prices [64]. 3.1.5 Inventory - As of August 29, 2025, the in - factory inventory of soda ash was 186.75 tons, an increase of 7.17 tons from the beginning of the month. The inventory is expected to remain high in the short term, pressuring prices [69]. 3.2 Glass Report 3.2.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Price**: As of September 2, 2025, the spot market price of float glass was 1130 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton from the previous week and 115 yuan/ton from the beginning of the previous month. The futures price of the main contract (SA509) closed at 1134 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan/ton from the previous week but up 33 yuan/ton from the beginning of the previous month. The basis was - 4 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the basis rate was + 2.73%, at a neutral level in historical statistics [83][89]. - **Cost - profit**: As of August 29, 2025, the production costs of float glass using coal, petroleum coke, and natural gas as fuels were 995 yuan/ton, 1039 yuan/ton, and 1398 yuan/ton respectively, and the profits were 109.46 yuan/ton, 25.66 yuan/ton, and - 188.41 yuan/ton respectively, providing some support for glass - futures prices [83][97]. - **Supply**: As of August 29, 2025, the weekly production of float glass was 111.70 tons, an increase of 0.18 tons from the beginning of the month. The start - up rate was 75.49%, an increase of 0.49 percentage points from the beginning of the month. With some production lines planning to start up next month, production is expected to remain at a relatively high level in the short term [83][108]. - **Demand**: As of August 29, 2025, the start - up rate of Low - e glass was 48.10%, an increase of 4.8 percentage points from the beginning of the month. As of September 1, 2025, the downstream deep - processing orders of float glass were 10.4 days, an increase of 0.85 days from the beginning of the previous month, indicating a slight recovery in demand. However, the improvement in real - estate terminal demand was slow, dragging down glass prices in the short term. Attention should be paid to the peak - season data during the "Golden September and Silver October" period [83][113]. - **Inventory**: As of August 29, 2025, the in - factory inventory of float glass in China was 6256.6 million weight - cases, an increase of 306.7 million weight - cases from the beginning of the month. The inventory in the Shahe area also increased. With high production levels, inventory is expected to continue to pressure prices [83][126]. 3.2.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Glass Basis**: As of September 2, 2025, the basis was - 4 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the basis rate was + 2.73%, at a neutral level in historical statistics [89]. - **Glass Inter - monthly Spread**: As of September 2, 2025, the spread between the 1 - 5 contracts of glass futures was - 99 yuan/ton. Although the short - term fundamentals are difficult to improve rapidly, there are expectations of price increases in the future [92]. 3.2.3 Profit and Cost - As of August 29, 2025, the production costs of float glass using coal, petroleum coke, and natural gas as fuels were 995 yuan/ton, 1039 yuan/ton, and 1398 yuan/ton respectively, and the profits were 109.46 yuan/ton, 25.66 yuan/ton, and - 188.41 yuan/ton respectively, providing some support for glass - futures prices [97]. 3.2.4 Supply and Demand - **Glass Production and Start - up Rate**: As of August 29, 2025, the weekly production of float glass was 111.70 tons, an increase of 0.18 tons from the beginning of the month. The start - up rate was 75.49%, an increase of 0.49 percentage points from the beginning of the month. With some production lines planning to start up next month, production is expected to remain at a relatively high level in the short term [108]. - **Glass Demand**: The downstream deep - processing orders of float glass increased slightly, indicating a slight recovery in demand. However, the improvement in real - estate terminal demand was slow, dragging down glass prices in the short term. The real - estate transaction volume improved slightly but remained relatively low compared to historical levels [113][119]. 3.2.5 Inventory - As of August 29, 2025, the in - factory inventory of float glass in China was 6256.6 million weight - cases, an increase of 306.7 million weight - cases from the beginning of the month. The inventory in the Shahe area also increased. With high production levels, inventory is expected to continue to pressure prices [126].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of industrial silicon show both increasing supply and demand, but the inventory pressure remains significant. Recently, driven by macro - sentiment, the silicon price has been relatively strong and is expected to maintain a high - level consolidation in the short term, with an operating range of 8,000 - 10,000 yuan/ton [2]. - For polysilicon, the supply side has a strong incremental expectation, the demand side has no significant change, the number of warehouse receipts is gradually increasing, but the bullish sentiment is still strong. It is expected that the price will maintain a high - level consolidation in the short term, with an operating range of 44,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Industrial Silicon Cost & Profit - The prices of silicon coal, petroleum coke, and electrodes have rebounded due to anti - involution sentiment and increased demand. However, as the southwestern production areas enter the wet season, the electricity cost has significantly decreased, weakening the cost support for silicon prices [2]. - In July, the average profit of national industrial silicon 553 was - 1,329 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1,032 yuan/ton; the average profit of 421 was - 988 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1,061 yuan/ton [32]. Supply - The number of open furnaces of silicon enterprises has increased overall this week. Northern large factories have gradually resumed supply, and after the cost in the southwestern production areas has decreased, the resumption of production has continued, with the number of open furnaces increasing. The overall supply shows an incremental trend [2]. - On the week of August 14, the number of open furnaces of silicon enterprises increased by 10 compared with the previous week [33]. Demand - The incremental demand mainly comes from the polysilicon sector. As the polysilicon price has reached a high level and the southwestern production areas have entered the wet season, the enthusiasm of enterprises to start work has greatly increased. The polysilicon production in July increased to around 110,000 tons and is expected to increase to about 130,000 tons in August. The organic silicon industry has gradually recovered after some enterprises resumed work after accident - related rectification, with rigid demand for industrial silicon. The demand for silicon - aluminum alloy is weak, with no incremental demand for industrial silicon for the time being [2]. Inventory - The futures price has remained at a high level, and the number of warehouse receipts has been increasing. As silicon enterprises in the southwestern production areas have gradually resumed production, the factory inventories of silicon factories have gradually accumulated [2]. - As of August 14, the social inventory of industrial silicon (social inventory + delivery warehouse) was 545,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2,000 tons; the total factory inventories of Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan were 171,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,100 tons. As of August 15, the registered warehouse receipts on the exchange were 50,599 lots, equivalent to 253,000 tons of spot [120]. Market Outlook The fundamentals of industrial silicon show both increasing supply and demand, and the inventory pressure remains significant. Recently, driven by macro - sentiment, the silicon price has been relatively strong and is expected to maintain a high - level consolidation in the short term, with an operating range of 8,000 - 10,000 yuan/ton [2]. 2. Polysilicon Supply - In July, some polysilicon enterprises increased production, mainly concentrated in the southwestern region and Qinghai region, and some enterprises carried out maintenance. After offsetting the increase and decrease, the monthly output is expected to increase to about 110,000 tons. In August, the wet season and high prices will further stimulate the start - up of polysilicon bases, and the monthly output is expected to increase to about 130,000 tons [2]. - The polysilicon production last week was 29,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 100 tons. As of August 14, the polysilicon inventory was 242,000 tons, an increase of 9,000 tons [63]. Demand Based on the current latest silicon material price, the silicon wafer quotation still cannot cover the full cost. Considering the weak demand and the gradual stabilization of upstream raw material prices, the silicon wafer price lacks upward momentum. Some battery cell enterprises have accumulated inventory due to reduced orders, and the price has loosened. The end - market has a low acceptance of high prices, and the overseas component export tax - refund stockpiling is basically completed, with components continuing to weaken [2]. Inventory As of August 14, the total polysilicon inventory was 242,000 tons, and the silicon wafer inventory was 19.8 GW. As of August 15, the total number of polysilicon futures warehouse receipts was 5,600 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts increased significantly [2]. Market Outlook The supply side of silicon materials has a strong incremental expectation, the demand side has no significant change, the number of warehouse receipts is gradually increasing, but the bullish sentiment is still strong. It is expected that the price will maintain a high - level consolidation in the short term, with an operating range of 44,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the macro - sentiment and the implementation of policies [2]. 3. Organic Silicon Supply In July, the operating rate of China's DMC was 67.73%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.22 percentage points, and the DMC output was 199,800 tons, a month - on - month decline [89]. Demand The demand for organic silicon is weak, and the price is declining. As of August 8, the average price of DMC was 11,400 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 6.17%; the average price of 107 glue was 12,250 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.92%; the average price of silicone oil was 13,900 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.42%. New orders are weak, and monomer factories are selling at reduced prices [95]. 4. Silicon - Aluminum Alloy Supply On the week of August 14, the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy was 56.6%, a month - on - month increase of 1 percentage point; the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy was 53%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1 percentage point [104]. Price The price of silicon - aluminum alloy has rebounded. As of August 15, the average price of ADC12 was 20,350 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.49%; the average price of A356 was 21,150 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.24% [107].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Industrial silicon supply production scheduling has increased, demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support has risen. Industrial silicon 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8640 - 9040 [6]. - For polysilicon, supply production scheduling continues to increase, demand shows continuous recovery overall, and cost support remains stable. Polysilicon 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 50315 - 53285 [8]. - The main bullish factors are cost - upward support and manufacturers' shutdown and production - reduction plans; the main bearish factors are slow post - holiday demand recovery and strong supply but weak demand in downstream polysilicon. The main logic is that capacity mismatch leads to strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change [11][12]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - Industrial Silicon - **Fundamentals**: Last week, industrial silicon supply was 84,000 tons, a 3.70% increase; demand was 78,000 tons, an 11.43% increase. Polysilicon inventory is at a high level, silicon wafers and battery cells are in a loss state, while components are profitable. Silicone inventory is at a low level, with a production profit of 479 yuan/ton, and its comprehensive开工率 is 74.84%, flat compared to the previous period and higher than the historical average. Aluminum alloy ingot inventory is at a high level, with an import loss of 612 yuan/ton, and the recycled aluminum开工率 is at a low level. The cost of sample oxygen - passing 553 production in Xinjiang is in a loss state, and the cost support during the wet season has weakened [6]. - **Basis**: On August 12, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 360 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory was 547,000 tons, a 1.30% increase; sample enterprise inventory was 170,050 tons, a 0.81% decrease; major port inventory was 118,000 tons, a 0.84% decrease [6]. - **Disk**: MA20 is upward, and the 11 - contract futures price closed below MA20 [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing [6]. - **Expectation**: Industrial silicon 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8640 - 9040 [6]. 3.2 Daily Views - Polysilicon - **Fundamentals**: Last week, polysilicon production was 29,400 tons, a 10.94% increase, and the August production schedule is expected to be 130,500 tons, a 22.76% increase compared to the previous month. Silicon wafer production, battery cell production, and component production are showing different trends. The average cost of N - type polysilicon is 36,280 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 9,720 yuan/ton [8]. - **Basis**: On August 12, the price of N - type dense material was 46,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was - 4800 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: Weekly inventory was 233,000 tons, a 1.74% increase, at a high level compared to the same period in history [8]. - **Disk**: MA20 is upward, and the 11 - contract futures price closed above MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net long, and long positions are decreasing [8]. - **Expectation**: Polysilicon 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 50315 - 53285 [8]. 3.3 Market Overview - **Industrial Silicon**: The prices of most futures contracts decreased, and the basis, inventory, production, and开工率 of different regions and specifications showed different changes [15]. - **Polysilicon**: The prices of most futures contracts decreased, and the prices, production, inventory, and profit of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components also changed [17]. 3.4 Other Charts and Tables - **Industrial Silicon Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread Trends**: Showed the historical trends of the basis and the spread between 421 and 553 of industrial silicon [20]. - **Industrial Silicon Inventory**: Displayed the historical inventory changes of industrial silicon in different regions and types [22]. - **Industrial Silicon Production and Capacity Utilization Trends**: Presented the historical production and开工率 changes of industrial silicon in different regions and specifications [26]. - **Industrial Silicon Component Cost Trends**: Showed the historical price trends of electricity, silica, graphite electrodes, and reducing agents in the main production areas [31]. - **Industrial Silicon Cost - Sample Region Trends**: Displayed the historical cost and profit trends of industrial silicon in Sichuan, Yunnan, and Xinjiang [33]. - **Industrial Silicon Weekly and Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Tables**: Presented the weekly and monthly supply - demand balance situations of industrial silicon [35][38]. - **Industrial Silicon Downstream - Organic Silicon**: Included price, production, import - export, and inventory trends of DMC and its downstream products [41][43][46]. - **Industrial Silicon Downstream - Aluminum Alloy**: Included price, supply, inventory, production, and demand trends related to aluminum alloy [49][52][54]. - **Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon**: Included cost, price, inventory, production, supply - demand balance, and trends of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [60][63][66].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about the report industry investment ratings in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Steel**: Steel prices have strengthened again, with clear support levels for rebar and hot-rolled coils. Social inventory has increased significantly in the past two weeks due to positive arbitrage by futures-spot traders. Steel mills have few overstocked products as inventory has shifted from mills to traders. There are expectations of production restrictions in mid-to-late August. Short-term inventory pressure is not high, but off-season demand has low acceptance of high prices. The main contract is approaching the rollover period, and the price of the October contract may fluctuate at high levels. It is advisable to hold long positions and be cautious about chasing high prices [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The 09 contract of iron ore showed a volatile upward trend. Globally, iron ore shipments and arrivals at 45 ports have decreased. On the demand side, steel mills' profit margins are at a relatively high level, with a slight increase in maintenance volume and a slight decline in molten iron production, which remains at around 240,000 tons per day. Steel exports remain strong, maintaining short-term resilience in molten iron production. Terminal demand shows strong performance during the off-season but weakens month-on-month. In terms of inventory, port inventory has slightly increased, and steel mills' equity ore inventory has increased month-on-month. It is expected that molten iron production in August will remain high, with an average daily output of around 236,000 tons. Steel mills' improving profits support raw materials. There are also new supply-side policy expectations and production restriction expectations for Hebei steel mills before the September 3rd parade. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract on dips and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal 01 and short on iron ore 01 [4]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal futures showed a volatile upward trend, with intense price fluctuations recently. Spot auction prices are stable with a slight upward trend, and Mongolian coal prices are stable with an increase. The fifth round of coke price increases has been officially implemented, and the sixth round of price increases has been initiated. On the supply side, coal mine production has decreased month-on-month, and the market remains in short supply. Imported coal prices have rebounded this week after falling last week, and downstream users continue to replenish their inventories. On the demand side, coking plant operations are stable, and the high-level molten iron production of blast furnaces has slightly declined, with continuous downstream replenishment demand. It is expected that molten iron production in August will continue to decline slightly. In terms of inventory, coking plant inventory continues to decrease, port inventory has slightly increased, and steel mill inventory has decreased. It is recommended to go long on coking coal 2601 on dips and conduct an arbitrage strategy of coking coal 9 - 1 reverse spread [7]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot-rolled coil prices have increased, with different price levels and changes in different regions and contracts. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China is 3,360 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton from the previous value [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of steel billets and slabs has changed, and the profit of steel products has generally decreased. For example, the profit of East China hot-rolled coils has decreased by 23 yuan/ton [1]. - **Production**: The daily average molten iron production has slightly decreased, while the production of five major steel products has increased. Rebar production has increased significantly, with a 4.8% increase, and hot-rolled coil production has decreased by 2.4% [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products has increased by 1.7%, the rebar inventory has increased by 1.9%, and the hot-rolled coil inventory has increased by 2.5% [1]. - **Trading and Demand**: Building material trading volume has decreased by 3.5%, the apparent demand for five major steel products has decreased by 0.7%, the apparent demand for rebar has increased by 3.6%, and the apparent demand for hot-rolled coils has decreased by 4.3% [1]. Iron Ore - **Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders have increased, and the basis of the 09 contract has changed. For example, the warehouse receipt cost of PB powder has increased by 8.8 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract of PB powder has increased by 2.3 yuan/ton [4]. - **Supply**: The weekly arrivals at 45 ports have decreased by 5.0%, and the global weekly shipments have decreased by 0.5%. The monthly national import volume has increased by 8.0% [4]. - **Demand**: The weekly average daily molten iron production of 247 steel mills has decreased by 0.2%, the weekly average daily port clearance volume has increased by 6.3%, the monthly national pig iron production has decreased by 3.0%, and the monthly national crude steel production has decreased by 3.9% [4]. - **Inventory**: The 45-port inventory has decreased by 0.2%, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills has increased by 0.0%, and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills have decreased by 4.8% [4]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of coking coal and coke futures have increased, and the basis and spreads have changed. For example, the 09 contract of coking coal has increased by 37 yuan/ton, and the 09 - 01 spread of coking coal has changed from -158 to -150 [7]. - **Supply**: The weekly production of coke has increased slightly, and the production of sample coal mines has decreased. For example, the daily average production of all-sample coking plants has increased by 0.3% [7]. - **Demand**: The weekly molten iron production of 247 steel mills has decreased by 0.2%, and the demand for coke remains supported [7]. - **Inventory**: Coke inventory has generally decreased, and coking coal inventory has changed differently. For example, the total coke inventory has decreased by 0.9%, and the coking coal inventory of all-sample coking plants has decreased by 0.5% [7].

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Silicon Manganese (SM)**: The fundamental contradictions of SM are relatively limited. With the new round of demand release, short - term demand resilience remains. Total inventory shows a downward trend but the absolute level is still high. The price will fluctuate with market sentiment. Short - term cost has strong support, and the downward space is relatively limited. It is advisable to operate within the range or stay on the sidelines and avoid excessive short - selling. The reference range for the main contract is [5884, 6210] [4][5]. - **Silicon Iron (SF)**: The fundamentals are showing signs of weakening. Alloy factory inventories are continuously accumulating and at a high level for the same period. Delivery inventory has stopped increasing and started to decline, but the absolute level is still high. There is no obvious short - term driver, and the price will follow market sentiment. In the medium term, the fundamentals will gradually return to a loose state, and the price may be under pressure. The reference range for the main contract is [5584, 5960] [53][54]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Silicon Manganese - **Supply**: National output has increased for twelve consecutive weeks. Northern production areas have stable operations, with a slight resumption in southern Guizhou and Yunnan maintaining an over 85% operating rate. As of August 8, the national SM output was 195,825 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5,005 tons, and the operating rate was 43.43%, a week - on - week increase of 1.25% [4][11][13]. - **Demand**: Weekly hot metal production was 2.4032 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.39 million tons, while rebar production and apparent demand increased week - on - week. The new round of steel procurement has started, and the procurement volume and price of a leading steel mill have both increased, providing rigid support for alloy demand. As of August 8, the weekly SM demand was 125,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,485 tons [4][14][18]. - **Inventory**: The total enterprise inventory was 161,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,500 tons; the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1,809 to 76,045; the delivery inventory (including forecasts) continued to decline to 384,500 tons, with a slower decline rate [4][23]. - **Cost and Profit**: Port manganese ore prices were strong. Multiple foreign mines' September quotes increased slightly, leading to strong price - holding sentiment among manganese ore merchants. The supply of manganese ore decreased significantly, mainly from South Africa and Australia. The arrival volume of South African manganese ore was 259,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 41.8%. The actual arrival volumes of Gabon and Australian ores were still low. The port inventory is expected to remain low in the short term. Some regions have started the sixth round of coke price increases, but the chemical coke price in production areas has not yet followed [4]. - **Market Price**: As of August 7, the closing price of the SM main contract was 6,064 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Jiangsu was 6,000 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 64 yuan/ton. The spot prices in main production areas increased by 70 - 100 yuan/ton [7][8]. Silicon Iron - **Supply**: National output continued to increase this week, with the operating rate at a low level for the same period. Except for Inner Mongolia, the operating rates in other production areas were relatively stable. Inner Mongolia's production increased by 12.8% week - on - week, and the daily output was at a relatively high level for the same period. As of August 8, the weekly SF output was 109,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4,700 tons, and the operating rate was 34.32%, a week - on - week increase of 0.56% [53][59]. - **Demand**: The demand for SF from five major steel products was 20,266.3 tons, a week - on - week increase of 344.3 tons. In August, a new round of demand was released, and most steel mills' procurement volume and price increased. The inquiry price for a leading steel mill's August SF procurement was 5,700 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from last month, and the procurement quantity was 2,835 tons, an increase of 135 tons from the previous round. Non - steel demand: the domestic magnesium market has been strong recently, and the magnesium ingot price in Fugu has risen to 17,000 yuan/ton [53][62][66]. - **Inventory**: The total enterprise inventory was 71,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6,200 tons; the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 2,396 to 19,646; the delivery inventory (including forecasts) was 107,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7,900 tons [53][67]. - **Cost and Profit**: The semi - coke market was stable, with some enterprises slightly increasing prices. The cost line in production areas moved up slightly, and the spot profit declined compared to the previous period. The immediate costs in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia were 5,499 yuan/ton and 5,352 yuan/ton respectively; the production profits were - 49 yuan/ton and 48 yuan/ton respectively [53][69][71]. - **Market Price**: As of August 7, the closing price of the SF main contract was 5,834 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Jiangsu was 5,600 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 234 yuan/ton [57].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of the asphalt industry is "oscillation", with a short - term trading strategy of "oscillation" for the single - side and an arbitrage strategy of paying attention to the 9 - 12 reverse spread [3]. Core View of the Report - The supply and demand of asphalt both increase, and there is no significant contradiction in its own supply - demand relationship, so it follows the trend of crude oil. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it will move in line with crude oil [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: The asphalt production plan of local refineries in August 2025 is tentatively set at around 1.26 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 250,000 tons (27%) and a month - on - month increase of 60,000 tons (5%). The total asphalt production of local refineries from January to August 2025 is expected to be about 8.89 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.11 million tons (14%). The supply of imported asphalt is expected to shrink, supporting the import price. [3] - **Demand**: The release of demand falls short of expectations. Overall capital issues, the northern flood season, and the southern rainy season suppress demand. The downstream construction in the north is gradually recovering, while there is no obvious improvement in the south. The total shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises this week is 415,000 tons, a slight month - on - month increase of 0.2%. [3] - **Inventory**: The factory inventory decreased significantly this week, from 773,000 tons last Thursday to 723,000 tons this Thursday. The social inventory increased slightly, from 1.827 million tons last Thursday to 1.857 million tons this Thursday. [3] - **Cost**: The current crude oil market is in an adjustment period after intense geopolitical fluctuations. In the short term, the market is likely to move sideways with support below and limited upside. In the medium term, it is unfavorable for the bulls. [3] 2. Price - The report presents the mainstream market prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in regions such as East China, South China, North China, and Shandong, as well as the import prices from South Korea and Singapore [5][12]. 3. Spread, Basis, and Delivery Profit - The report shows the trends of asphalt cracking spread, asphalt - coker feedstock spread, and the basis in major regions [17][21]. 4. Supply - **Scheduled Production Expectation**: It shows the monthly scheduled production and actual production of asphalt in China from 2025 - 01 to 2025 - 08, as well as the production in different regions in recent years [25]. - **Capacity Utilization**: It presents the capacity utilization rates of heavy - traffic asphalt in China and different regions from 2019 to 2025, and the weekly and monthly maintenance loss volumes of asphalt in China from 2018 to 2025 [34][40]. 5. Cost and Profit - It shows the production gross profit of asphalt in Shandong from 2021 to 2025, and the price, premium, and port inventory of diluted asphalt [43][46]. 6. Inventory - **Factory Inventory**: It shows the factory inventory and inventory rate of asphalt in China and different regions from 2019 to 2025 [51][54]. - **Social Inventory**: It shows the social inventory of asphalt in China and different regions from 2022 to 2025 [57]. 7. Demand - **Shipment Volume**: It shows the shipment volumes of asphalt in China and different regions from 2022 to 2025 [60]. - **Downstream Operating Rate**: It shows the operating rates of road - modified asphalt, modified asphalt, building asphalt, waterproofing membranes, and modified asphalt in different regions in recent years [62][66][69].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The aluminum market is expected to experience large - range oscillations, with an overall upward - biased trend in August. The new production capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum in the third quarter is at the lowest level of the year. August is the window period for the transition between the off - season and peak season of downstream industries. With the temporary easing of the China - US tariff war, exports remain resilient. Additionally, with the implementation of domestic anti - involution and stable - growth policies, the supply and demand situation in August can be viewed optimistically [5][12]. - The aluminum price is expected to maintain an upward - biased oscillation, with a fluctuation range of 20,500 - 21,000 yuan/ton. The Shanghai Aluminum 2509 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 20,500 - 21,100 [12][8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Mid - term Market Analysis - Trend judgment: Large - range oscillations, with an overall upward - biased trend in August. The new production capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum in the third quarter is at the lowest level of the year. August is the window period for the transition between the off - season and peak season of downstream industries. With the temporary easing of the China - US tariff war, exports remain resilient. Additionally, with the implementation of domestic anti - involution and stable - growth policies, the supply and demand situation in August can be viewed optimistically [5]. - Strategy suggestion: Hold long positions at low levels in the mid - term [5]. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The range of Shanghai Aluminum 2509 in the coming week was expected to be 20,200 - 20,900. Appropriate long positions could be established near the lower end of the range [7]. - This week's strategy suggestion: The Shanghai Aluminum 2509 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 20,500 - 21,100. Appropriate long positions could be established near the lower end of the range [8]. - Hedging suggestion for spot enterprises: Consider allocating an appropriate amount of virtual futures inventory at low prices [9]. Overall Viewpoint Bauxite Market - Starting from August, the import of bauxite from Guinea to China is expected to decrease. Overall, the import volume of domestic bauxite in the second half of the year is expected to decline compared with the first half, and there is a risk that the monthly balance of bauxite may turn into a deficit. However, considering that some enterprises have stocked up in advance to cope with the rainy season, the supply - demand contradiction of bauxite is not expected to be significant in the short term. The price of bauxite in the third quarter is expected to remain stable. If the shipment volume remains low and domestic bauxite inventory continues to decline, the contradiction will gradually become prominent, and the bauxite price may turn upward in the fourth quarter [10]. Alumina Market - As of July 18, the built - in production capacity of domestic metallurgical - grade alumina was about 111.75 million tons, the operating capacity was about 92.2 million tons, and the operating rate was about 83.61%, up from about 83.28% last week, showing an overall upward trend since the end of May. There is a new production capacity project in Guangtou Beihai in Q3, and the operating capacity of alumina still has the potential to refresh the historical peak in the first half of the year. However, there are many factors disturbing the ore supply from Guinea in the second half of the year [10]. Production of Electrolytic Aluminum - According to Aladdin, the current operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 44.2 million tons, and the new production capacity of electrolytic aluminum in Q3 is at the lowest level of the year [10]. Import and Export - The theoretical import loss of electrolytic aluminum is currently about 1,200 yuan/ton, down from about 1,350 yuan/ton last week. Since February 2025, China's aluminum exports have been increasing. Although the growth rate has declined due to tariff disturbances since April, overall, exports remain resilient [10]. Demand - Aluminum profiles: The weekly operating rate of the domestic aluminum profile industry increased by 1 percentage point to 50.5% this week, mainly due to the increase in orders for automotive profiles from some enterprises, while the operating rate of building profiles remained weak [11]. - Aluminum plates, strips, and foils: The operating rate of leading aluminum plate and strip enterprises remained stable at 63.2%. In mid - to late July, the probability of an increase in the operating rate driven by improved demand is extremely low. During the transition period between the off - season and peak season in August, if the aluminum price remains relatively stable, downstream customers' stocking actions for the peak season may bring about a wave of demand recovery. The operating rate of leading aluminum foil enterprises remained stable at 69.6%. The overall demand in the aluminum foil market continued to be weak this week. As it is the traditional consumption off - season from July to August, there is no hope for a recovery in terminal demand, and the operating rate of the aluminum foil industry is expected to continue to decline in the short term [11]. - Aluminum cables: The operating rate of leading aluminum cable enterprises increased by 0.4 percentage points to 62% this week, showing signs of bottoming out and recovery. In the final year of the "14th Five - Year Plan", the supervision of power grid construction is still urgent. Coupled with the relatively abundant backlog of orders from enterprises, there is still a window period for concentrated deliveries in the second half of the year, which will drive the operating rate of aluminum cables and aluminum consumption after August [11]. - Alloys: The operating rate of the primary aluminum alloy industry remained stable at 54.0%. The performance in mid - July was better than the previous weak and stable situation, maintaining a game pattern of "dominated by molten aluminum allocation and demand suppressed by aluminum prices". The exports of primary aluminum alloys and aluminum wheels may enter a deep adjustment period in the second half of the year, and a substantial recovery will depend on clear policies and the alleviation of cost pressures. The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 53.4% this week, mainly due to the shortage of raw materials and the reduction in demand. Constrained by both raw materials and orders, the operating rate of the industry is expected to continue to be under pressure in the short term [11]. Inventory - Electrolytic aluminum: The latest social inventory of aluminum ingots is 490,000 tons, an increase of about 5% compared with the week before last and a decrease of about 39% compared with the same period last year. Recently, the purchasing and stocking sentiment of downstream customers has improved, and the demand in the aluminum cable sector still has some support during the off - season. The sustainability of the inventory build - up of aluminum ingots still needs to be observed, but the situation of inventory remaining at a historical low level in the same period is difficult to change for the time being. The inventory of aluminum rods is 153,200 tons, a decrease of about 2% compared with last week and an increase of about 10% compared with the same period last year. Although the production cuts by aluminum rod manufacturers have reduced the arrival pressure on the supply side, the current replenishment of rigid demand is mainly a short - term boost, and the off - season theme of downstream industries has not changed. Therefore, from a long - term perspective, the inventory of aluminum rods will still maintain an upward trend, and the general trend has not changed significantly. The LME electrolytic aluminum inventory has been increasing slightly since July, after a continuous slight decline since May 2024, but it is still at a low level since 1990 [11]. Alumina Profit - The average cash cost of the Chinese alumina industry is currently about 2,600 yuan/ton, and the profit is about 550 yuan/ton, the same as last week [12]. Electrolytic Aluminum Profit - The average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is currently about 17,500 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 3,200 yuan/ton, down from 3,300 yuan/ton last week. The profit is at a relatively high level [12]. Market Expectation - Policy expectations continue to ferment, and social inventory is at a low level in recent years; overseas tariff negotiations have been postponed, and export orders have recovered in the short term. However, the marginal demand during the off - season is weakening, and the operating rate of aluminum processing enterprises is under pressure; the expectation of the Fed's interest rate decision is disturbing, and the recent rebound of the US dollar index has suppressed metal prices. The aluminum price is expected to maintain an upward - biased oscillation, with a fluctuation range of 20,500 - 21,000 yuan/ton [12]. Personal View - The new production capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum in the third quarter is at the lowest level of the year. August is the window period for the transition between the off - season and peak season of downstream industries. With the temporary easing of the China - US tariff war, exports remain resilient. Additionally, with the implementation of domestic anti - involution and stable - growth policies, the supply and demand situation in August can be viewed optimistically. Looking forward to the coming week, the Shanghai Aluminum 2509 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 20,500 - 21,100 [12]. Key Concerns - Whether the inventory of LME and domestic electrolytic aluminum will increase more than expected. - Whether the import window for aluminum ingots will open [12]. Important Industrial Link Price Changes - The prices of various aluminum - related products and raw materials have shown different degrees of change. For example, the price of bauxite from Guinea remained stable at 73 US dollars/dry ton, while the price of动力煤 (Q5500平仓价) at Jingtang Port increased by 1.73% week - on - week [13]. Important Industrial Link Inventory Changes - The inventory of various aluminum - related products and raw materials has also changed. For example, the port inventory of bauxite increased slightly this week, and the LME aluminum inventory increased by 7.59% week - on - week [14]. Supply - Demand Situation - The operating rate of the domestic aluminum processing industry increased by 0.2 percentage points to 58.8% this week, driven by the slight increase in the weekly operating rates of aluminum profiles and aluminum cables. Overall, the weekly operating rate of downstream aluminum processing is expected to continue to be under pressure next week [22][23]. Futures - Spot Structure - The current price structure of Shanghai Aluminum is still in a relatively strong pattern. The adjustment of Shanghai Aluminum at the beginning of last week was mainly concentrated in the near - end, reflecting the market's cautious attitude towards high prices during the off - season. However, the attitude of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology towards the high - quality development of the copper and aluminum industries near the weekend may further open the prelude to Supply - side 2.0, and it should be treated as a relatively strong situation [27]. Spread Structure - The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 is currently about - 1,330 yuan/ton, down from - 1,260 yuan/ton last week. The current spread between primary aluminum and alloys is at a relatively high level in recent years, which may have a drag on the electrolytic aluminum price [33][34]. Market Capital Situation - LME aluminum: The net long position has been increasing slightly in the past 10 weeks. Since May, the short - selling camp has been reducing positions overall, and the long - buying camp has been increasing positions slightly since early June. The market is expected to be dominated by a relatively strong oscillation recently [35]. - SHFE electrolytic aluminum: The net long position of the main contract has remained stable this week. Since early July, both the long - buying and short - selling camps have slightly reduced positions to cope. The net long position of funds mainly for financial speculation has continued to decrease slightly. The net short position of funds from mid - and downstream enterprises has increased slightly. From the performance of the main funds, the market is expected to oscillate at a high level next week [38].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the content Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - For silicon ferroalloy, on July 15, 2025, the latest price of Ningxia 72 natural block was 5200, with a weekly increase of 50; the latest price of Tianjin 72 export (in US dollars) was 1010, with no daily or weekly change. For silicon manganese, the latest price of Inner Mongolia 6517 was 5600, with a weekly increase of 50, and the latest price of Guangxi 6517 was 5650, with a weekly increase of 80 [2]. - The report also presents historical price trends of various silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese products from 2021 - 2025, including market prices in different regions, export and import average prices, and contract closing prices [3][4][6]. Supply - The production data of 136 silicon ferroalloy enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including monthly and weekly production, and capacity utilization rates in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi [4]. - The production data of silicon manganese in China from 2021 - 2025 are also provided, including weekly production and procurement data from Hebei Iron and Steel Group [6]. Demand - The report shows the demand - related data of silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese in China from 2021 - 2025, such as the estimated demand for silicon manganese (in ten thousand tons) and the procurement volume of silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese by Hebei Iron and Steel Group [4][6][7]. - It also includes data on the production of related downstream products, such as the production of crude steel, metal magnesium, and stainless - steel crude steel [4]. Inventory - The inventory data of 60 sample silicon ferroalloy enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including weekly inventory in different regions, and data on warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and inventory average available days [5]. - For silicon manganese, the inventory - related data from 2021 - 2025 are provided, including daily warehouse receipt quantity, effective forecast quantity, and inventory average available days, as well as the inventory of 63 sample enterprises in China (in tons) [7]. Cost and Profit - The cost - related data of silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese from 2021 - 2025 are shown, such as electricity prices in different regions, market prices of raw materials like semi - carbonated manganese ore and lanthanum charcoal, and production costs in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia [5][6][7]. - The profit - related data of silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese from 2021 - 2025 are also provided, including spot profit, profit after converting to the main contract, and export profit [5][7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the spot price of lithium carbonate declined slightly, and the futures fluctuated narrowly following the macro - sentiment. The overall market situation is affected by factors on the supply, demand, inventory, and profit sides [1][2][3]. - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate are weak. If the consumer side weakens significantly, there is still room for the lithium carbonate market to decline. However, attention should be paid to the downstream's willingness to accept warehouse receipts [8]. 3. Summary by Related Aspects Spot Market - **Price**: The lithium carbonate futures weakened this week. The main contract 2509 closed at 58,900 yuan/ton on Friday, with a weekly decline of 1.81%. The average price of battery - grade spot was 60,000 yuan/ton, down 1.23% from the previous week, and the average price of industrial - grade spot was 59,000 yuan/ton, down 1.26% from last week. The futures were at a discount of 1,500 yuan/ton to battery - grade lithium carbonate [1]. - **Supply**: The weekly output increased slightly to 18,500 tons, with an increase of 335 tons. The output from different sources all showed a slight increase [1]. - **Consumption**: The output of lithium iron phosphate increased by 0.92% month - on - month, ternary materials increased by 0.30%, cobalt - lithium decreased by 0.50%, and manganese - lithium decreased by 0.67%. The demand at the battery end is difficult to increase, and the industry chain is in a destocking trend [2]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of the lithium carbonate industry increased. The spot inventory was 134,900 tons, an increase of 1,352 tons from last week. The futures warehouse receipt volume decreased to 30,000 tons [2]. - **Profit**: Lithium ore prices have been relatively stable recently. Enterprises purchasing lithium ore externally have difficulty in making profits and need to cooperate with futures hedging. Salt lake lithium extraction maintains profitability. Recycling material manufacturers are facing losses, and the processing fees of processing enterprises are in a competitive situation [2]. Other Products - **Lithium Hydroxide**: The output this week was 5,050 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.37%. The overall supply of the market is stable, but the industry's operating rate remains at a low level [3]. - **Cobalt**: The output of domestic cobalt sulfate is expected to be 1,080 metal tons this week, a decrease from last week, and the operating rate has also declined. The output of cobalt tetroxide is expected to be 2,415 tons, remaining stable compared to last week [4]. Market Transactions - **Lithium Carbonate**: Spot transactions were dull, and the basis of spot quotations weakened. Downstream procurement is still mainly based on long - term agreements and customer - supplied materials, and the demand for spot purchases is poor [3]. - **Cobalt**: The cobalt salt market is in the off - season of demand, and the demand growth momentum is limited. The downstream purchasing atmosphere is not good, and the market is mainly executing existing orders [5]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: If the consumer side weakens significantly, the lithium carbonate market still has room to decline. If the market rebounds, upstream enterprises should mainly sell for hedging at high prices [8]. - **Options**: Sell out - of - the - money call options and use bear spread options [8].