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中辉期货能化观点-20250526
Zhong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-05-26 06:54
| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 | 旺季预期 震荡 | VS OPEC+增产,油价盘整。OPEC+持续增产,原油远月压力较大;夏季原油 | | | | 消费旺季即将到来;中美关税超预期下降,宏观面改善,市场风险偏好上升。SC【445-465】 | | LPG | 偏弱 | 仓单压制盘面,液化气走势偏弱。近期液化气仓单不断攀升,盘面受到压制,油价偏弱; | | | | 下游利润不佳,但对美关税下降后,进口成本下降,开工率有上升预期。PG【4030-4080】 | | L | 偏弱 | 期现齐跌,社库去化速度放缓,本周装置计划重启增多,供给充沛;抢出口可持续性不 | | | | 强,农膜季节性淡季,反弹偏空。L【7050-7150】 | | PP | 偏弱 | 内需淡季,期现齐跌,5-7 月即将迎来新一轮投产高峰期,基本面供需格局偏弱,向下考 | | | | 验前低支撑位,反弹偏空。PP【6930-7030】 | | PVC | 偏弱 | 成本坍塌,开工高位窄幅下滑。5-6 月有多套新装置计划投产,出口尚存不确定性,基本 | | | | 面预期 ...
中辉期货LPG早报-20250522
Zhong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-05-22 03:23
| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 旺季预期 VSOPEC+增产,油价区间震荡。夏季原油消费旺季即将到来;中美关税超预期 | | 原油 | 震荡 | 下降,宏观面改善,市场风险偏好上升;OPEC+扩产持续增产,原油远月压力较大。SC | | | | 【455-475】 | | LPG | 偏弱 | 仓单压制盘面,液化气走势偏弱。近期液化气不断攀升,盘面受到压制,走势偏弱;成 | | | | 本端反弹,但下游利润不佳,PDH 开工率下降,港口库存连续累库。PG【4200-4230】 | | L | 偏弱 | 现货疲软,基差走弱,社库去化速度放缓,供给充沛;短期出口端抢出口有一定支撑, | | | | 内贸淡季,反弹偏空。L【7180-7275】 | | PP | 偏弱 | 成本端原油偏弱,上中游库存去化,月内存新装置投产计划,供给充沛,内需淡季,基 | | | | 本面供需格局偏弱,反弹偏空。PP【7000-7100】 | | PVC | 震荡 | 仓单下降,4 月出口表现依旧亮眼,本周开工存上行预期,出口后市尚存不确定性,盘面 | | | | ...
广发期货《黑色》日报-20250521
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-05-21 02:43
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - The steel industry shows a structure of high production, low inventory, weak cost support, and improved demand expectations. It is approaching the seasonal off - season, and there is a possibility of weakening manufacturing demand (exports). The price is expected to oscillate at a low level, with attention paid to whether there is support at the previous low. It is advisable to wait and see for now [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The iron ore market is expected to be mainly in a state of oscillation in the short term. Although the iron ore inventory is slightly decreasing under high pig iron production, the supply is expected to increase in the future, and the macro - expectation improvement may bring sentiment repair [3]. Coke Industry - The coke market is in a weak state. The supply side has improved production due to good orders, and the demand side shows a sign of peaking and falling. It is recommended to short the coke 2509 contract opportunistically and continue to hold the strategy of longing hot - rolled coils and shorting coke [5]. Coking Coal Industry - The coking coal market is in a weak pattern, with the supply being relatively high and the demand likely to decline. It is recommended to short the coking coal 2509 contract opportunistically and continue to hold the strategy of longing hot - rolled coils and shorting coking coal [5]. Ferrosilicon Industry - The supply - demand contradiction of ferrosilicon has been significantly alleviated, and it is expected that the price will oscillate in the short term. Attention should be paid to the marginal change in exports [6]. Ferromanganese Industry - The ferromanganese price is expected to continue to oscillate and decline. Although the supply - demand gap is narrowing under production cuts, the cost and supply pressure still exist [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - The prices of most steel products show minor changes. For example, the spot price of rebar in South China increased by 10 yuan/ton, while the 05 - contract price of rebar decreased by 20 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The cost of steel billets decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the profit of hot - rolled coils in East China decreased by 13 yuan/ton. The profit of rebar in different regions also showed varying degrees of decline [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average pig iron production remained unchanged at 245.6 tons, and the production of five major steel products decreased by 5.8 tons. The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 3.1%, with rebar and hot - rolled coils having a better de - stocking situation [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 3.1%, and the apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 8.1%. The apparent demand for rebar increased by 21.7% [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The basis of the 09 - contract for various iron ore types increased significantly. For example, the basis of the 09 - contract for PB powder increased by 57.2 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 209.0% [3]. Supply and Demand - The global iron ore shipment volume increased by 10.5% week - on - week, and the domestic arrival volume decreased by 3.5%. The pig iron production may decline slightly, but it is still expected to remain at a high level [3]. Inventory Change - The inventory of 45 ports decreased by 0.8% week - on - week, and the inventory of 247 steel mills increased slightly by 0.0% [3]. Coke Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of the coke 09 - contract decreased by 1.4%, and the 09 - basis increased by 21 yuan/ton. The coking profit increased by 85.7% week - on - week [5]. Supply and Demand - The daily average production of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.3%, and the pig iron production of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.4% [5]. Inventory Change - The total coke inventory decreased by 1.1%, with the inventory of coking plants, steel mills, and ports all showing a downward trend [5]. Coking Coal Industry Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of the coking coal 09 - contract decreased by 0.8%, and the 09 - basis decreased by 30 yuan/ton. The sample coal mine profit decreased by 4.3% week - on - week [5]. Supply and Demand - The production of raw coal and clean coal increased slightly, and the daily average production of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.3% [5]. Inventory Change - The clean coal inventory of Fenwei sample mines increased by 9.2%, the inventory of coking plants decreased by 3.5%, and the port inventory increased by 2.8% [5]. Ferrosilicon Industry Ferrosilicon Spot Prices and Spreads - The price of the ferrosilicon 72%FeSi in some regions decreased slightly, and the SF - SM main - contract spread increased by 14 yuan/ton [6]. Cost and Profit - The production cost in some regions decreased slightly, and the production profit in Inner Mongolia increased by 2.5% [6]. Supply and Demand - The ferrosilicon production decreased by 9.15%, and the demand remained stable [6]. Inventory Change - The inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased by 11.8% [6]. Ferromanganese Industry Ferromanganese Spot Prices and Spreads - The price of the ferromanganese main - contract decreased by 1.1%, and the spread between Inner Mongolia and the main - contract increased by 66 yuan/ton [6]. Cost and Profit - The production cost remained unchanged, and the production profit in Inner Mongolia remained the same [6]. Supply and Demand - The ferromanganese production decreased by 5.4%, and the demand decreased slightly by 0.2% [6]. Inventory Change - The inventory of 63 sample enterprises increased by 13.9%, and the average available days decreased by 7.0% [6].
《能源化工》日报-20250521
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-05-21 02:32
甲醇产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年5月21日 张晓珍 数据来源:Wind、卓创、彭博、隆众、广发期货发展研究中心。请仔细阅读报告尼端免费声明。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料. 但广发期货对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报 告反映研究人员的不同观点、见解及分析方法,并不代表广发期货或其附属机构的立场。在任何情况下,报告内容仅供参考,报告中 的信息或所泰达的意见并不构成所述品种买卖的出价或询价. 投资者据此投资,风险自担。本报告旨在发送给广发期货特定客户及其 他专业人士、版权归广发期货所有,未经广发期货书面授权,任何人不得对本报告进行任何形式的发布,复制。如引用、刊发、需注 明出处为"广发期货"。 知识图强,求实奉献,客户至上,合作共赢 亚期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【 2011】1292 Z0003135 甲醇价格及价差 | 品种 | 5月20日 | 5月19日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | MA2501 收盘价 | 232 ...
合成橡胶:丁二烯回调,震荡承压
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-05-21 01:48
2025年05月21日 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 05 月 21 日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 橡胶:宽幅震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 合成橡胶:丁二烯回调,震荡承压 | 4 | | 沥青:区间震荡,观望为上 | 6 | | LLDPE:短期震荡,后期仍有压力 | 8 | | PP:价格小跌,成交一般 | 10 | | 烧碱:反弹难持续 | 11 | | 纸浆:震荡运行 | 13 | | 玻璃:原片价格平稳 | 15 | | 甲醇:震荡承压 | 16 | | 尿素:高位震荡 | 18 | | 苯乙烯:短期震荡 | 20 | | 纯碱:现货市场变化不大 | 21 | | LPG:短期支撑走强,关注内盘反弹 | 22 | | PVC:后期仍有压力 | 25 | | 燃料油:日盘小幅上涨,短期转入调整走势 | 27 | | 低硫燃料油:夜盘继续转弱,外盘高低硫价差小幅回弹 | 27 | | 集运指数(欧线):高位震荡,6-8反套减仓止盈;10-12反套持有 | 28 | | 短纤:短期震荡,成本支撑偏弱 | 31 | | 瓶片:短期震荡,成 ...
华宝期货晨报铝锭-20250520
Hua Bao Qi Huo· 2025-05-20 08:31
晨报 铝锭 成材:重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭:周末到货增加 关注铝库存走势 投资咨询业务资格: 于 1 月 5 日开始停产;其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假, 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假,停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 右。2024 年 12 月 30 日-2025 年 1 月 5 日,10 个重点城市新建商品房成 交(签约)面积总计 223.4 万平方米,环比下降 40.3%,同比增长 43.2%。 成材昨日继续震荡下行,价格再创近期新低。在供需双弱的格局下, 市场情绪同样偏悲观,导致价格重心持续下移。无论从宏观上还是产业上, 市场近期均无太多亮点。且今年冬储偏低迷,对价格支撑不强。 观点:震荡整理运行。 后期关注/风险因素:宏观政策;下游需求情况。 成 材:武秋婷 原材料:程 鹏 有色金属:于梦雪 基本面来看,矿端扰动再起,据媒体报道,几内亚政府宣布已经收回 了 51 份矿业许可。一些分析师认为,此举是全球第二大铝土矿生产国对大 型运营商发出的警告。据 SMM 氧化铝理论利润数据显示,自 3 月 19 日以来, 氧化铝企业理论利润便开始出现亏损态势,此后亏损情况一直持续 ...
广发期货《有色》日报-20250519
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-05-19 05:51
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - The steel industry presents a structure of high production, low inventory, weak cost support, and expected demand recovery. It is about to face the seasonal off - season and the possibility of weakening manufacturing demand (exports). The price is expected to oscillate at a low level, and it is recommended to wait and see for now [1]. Iron Ore Industry - This week, the daily average iron ore production has peaked and declined, while the port clearance volume has slightly increased. It is expected that the iron ore production will remain at a high level in the short term. The iron ore is slightly de - stocked under high iron ore production, and the steel mill inventory remains low. The terminal demand of finished products determines the sustainability of high - level iron ore production. It is expected that the iron ore will oscillate in the short term [4]. Silicon and Manganese Industry - For silicon iron, the daily production has declined, the supply pressure has been gradually relieved, and the factory inventory has gradually decreased, but the overall inventory is still at a medium - high level. For silicon manganese, the production is accelerating to decline, the supply and demand contradiction is limited, and the price is expected to oscillate, stabilize, and rebound [5]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - The coke and coking coal futures showed a weak oscillating trend last week. The supply - demand pattern is still loose in the short term. It is recommended to short the 2509 contracts of coke and coking coal at high prices and continue to hold the arbitrage strategy of long hot - rolled coils and short coke/coking coal [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of most steel products decreased. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China decreased by 30 yuan/ton, and the 10 - contract price decreased by 36 yuan/ton. The cost of some steel products decreased, and the profit of most steel products increased [1]. - **Production**: The daily average iron ore production remained unchanged at 245.6 tons, the production of five major steel products decreased by 5.8 tons (- 0.7%), the rebar production increased by 3.0 tons (1.3%), and the hot - rolled coil production decreased by 8.4 tons (- 2.6%) [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 45.4 tons (- 3.1%), the rebar inventory decreased by 33.8 tons (- 5.2%), and the hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 17.6 tons (- 4.8%) [1]. - **Demand**: The daily average construction material trading volume decreased by 0.3 tons (- 3.1%), the apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 68.6 tons (8.1%), the apparent demand for rebar increased by 46.4 tons (21.7%), and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils increased by 20.0 tons (6.5%) [1]. Iron Ore Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of most iron ore varieties decreased. For example, the warehouse - receipt cost of PB powder decreased by 8.8 yuan/ton (- 1.1%), and the spot price of PB powder at Rizhao Port decreased by 8.0 yuan/ton (- 1.0%). The basis of some varieties increased significantly [4]. - **Supply**: The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 95.1 tons (- 3.9%), and the global shipment volume decreased by 21.5 tons (- 0.7%) [4]. - **Demand**: The daily average iron ore production of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.9 tons (- 0.4%), and the 45 - port daily average port clearance volume increased by 8.7 tons (2.8%) [4]. - **Inventory**: The 45 - port inventory decreased by 174.8 tons (- 1.2%), and the inventory of imported iron ore in 247 steel mills increased by 2.2 tons (0.0%) [4]. Silicon and Manganese Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese increased slightly. The closing price of the silicon iron main contract increased by 26.0 yuan/ton (0.5%), and the closing price of the silicon manganese main contract increased by 12.0 yuan/ton (0.2%) [5]. - **Cost and Profit**: The production cost of some regions remained stable, and the production profit of some regions increased or remained unchanged [5]. - **Supply**: The production of silicon iron decreased by 0.9 tons (- 5.4%), and the production of silicon manganese decreased by 0.9 tons (- 5.4%). The start - up rates of both decreased [5]. - **Demand**: The demand for silicon iron and silicon manganese remained relatively stable [5]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of 60 sample silicon iron enterprises decreased by 1.0 tons (- 11.8%), and the inventory of 63 sample silicon manganese enterprises increased by 2.5 tons (13.9%) [5]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of coke and coking coal decreased. For example, the price of first - class wet - quenched coke in Shanxi decreased by 50 yuan/ton (- 3.84%), and the price of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse - receipt) decreased by 20 yuan/ton (- 1.9%) [6]. - **Supply**: The coke production increased slightly, and the coking coal production remained at a relatively high level. The domestic coal mines continued to resume production, and the Mongolian customs clearance volume increased from a low level [6]. - **Demand**: The iron ore production showed signs of peaking and declining, and the downstream users' replenishment was mainly on - demand [6]. - **Inventory**: The coke inventory in coking plants continued to decline, the port inventory decreased slightly, and the steel mill inventory was low. The coking coal inventory in mines continued to accumulate, and the downstream inventory was at a low level [6].
工业硅期货早报-20250513
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-05-13 14:47
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 供给端来看,上周工业硅供应量为6.8万吨,环比有所减少1.44%。 需求端来看,上周工业硅需求为6.7万吨,环比增长19.64%.需求有所抬升.多晶硅库存为25.7万 吨,处于低位,硅片亏损,电池片亏损,组件盈利;有机硅库存为105000吨,处于低位,有机 硅生产利润为-301元/吨,处于亏损状态,其综合开工率为60.11%,环比持平,低于历史同期平 均水平;铝合金锭库存为1.47万吨,处于低位,进口亏损为702元/吨,A356铝送至无锡运费和 利润为516.79元/吨,再生铝开工率为55%,环比增加4.76%,处于低位。 成本端来看,新疆地区样本通氧553生产亏损为3555元/吨,枯水期成本支撑有所上升。 2、基差: 05月12日,华东不通氧现货价9000元/吨,06合约基差为680元/吨,现货升水期货。 偏多。 3、库存: 社会库存为59.6万吨,环比减少1.16%,样本企业库存为264900吨,环比增加1.44%,主要港口库 存为13.3万吨,环比减少2.20%。 偏空。 4 ...
减产力度不足,寻底或将继续
Zhong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-04-30 12:48
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For silicon manganese, the industry fundamentals have not improved significantly, cost - end support is insufficient, and high inventory suppresses price increases. The market may continue to seek a bottom and is expected to be weak in the short term, with the main contract reference range of [5600, 6000] [5] - For silicon iron, the supply - demand contradiction is gradually alleviating, the industry's production reduction progress is accelerating, but the inventory level is still relatively high. The market may continue to seek a bottom and is expected to be weak in the short term, with the main contract reference range of [5400, 5850] [46] 3. Summary according to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Silicon Manganese 3.1.1 Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: In April, production and operating rates declined significantly. It is expected that the total silicon manganese output in April will be around 810,000 tons. Although the production decline in each production area has slowed down compared with the previous period, the daily average output in Inner Mongolia is still at a relatively high level in the same period, and the operating rate in Yunnan is also at a high level in the same period [4][18] - Demand: In April, the substantial increase in hot metal production provided rigid support for the demand for silicon manganese. However, in steel tenders, the procurement prices of mainstream steel mills decreased, and the overall price - pressing sentiment was strong. Recently, news of production cuts has disturbed the market [4] 3.1.2 Manganese Ore Overview - Price: Manganese ore prices have not stopped falling, and the decline of oxide ore is obvious. Although the inquiry enthusiasm at ports has increased recently, the overall purchasing mentality is still cautious [4] - Inventory: Port inventory has continued to rise but is still at a historically low level. The arrival volume in April increased significantly, and the floating volume at sea surged. It is expected that large ships will arrive at ports in mid - to - late May, and the inventory may return to the normal range [4] 3.1.3 Cost and Profit - The entire industry is still in a loss state, and there are still expectations for production cuts. Special attention should be paid to the production reduction progress in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia. Coke's second - round price increase was blocked, and the coke price is expected to be weak. The electricity prices in the north and south production areas have decreased to varying degrees, and there is an expectation of a decrease in Ningxia's electricity price [4] 3.1.4 Market Review - In April, the silicon manganese futures price continued to decline, and the spot price followed the decline. As of April 28, 2025, the closing price of the silicon manganese 509 contract was 5804 yuan/ton, with a cumulative decline of 6.66% compared with the beginning of the month; the price range of Inner Mongolia 6517 was 5680 - 5900 yuan/ton, with a cumulative decrease of 220 yuan/ton [6] 3.2 Silicon Iron 3.2.1 Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: In April, the production and operating rates decreased significantly. It is expected that the national output in April will be 430,000 - 440,000 tons. Since the end of March, news of factory production cuts and shutdowns has been continuously reported, and production area shutdowns and overhauls have gradually increased since mid - April [45] - Demand: With the repair of steel mill profits, blast furnaces have been actively restarted, and hot metal production has increased more than expected. In April, steel tenders progressed slowly, and most steel mills' tender prices decreased to varying degrees compared with the previous round. Non - steel demand remained stable, and downstream pre - holiday restocking was mainly based on demand - based procurement. The cumulative silicon iron export volume from January to March decreased significantly year - on - year [45] 3.2.2 Cost and Profit - The semi - coke market has been stable recently. The price of lump coal in the raw material end has declined, weakening the cost support for semi - coke. The overall operating rate of semi - coke enterprises is low, and they have entered the regular maintenance season, with the overall supply continuing to shrink. The price of small materials in Shaanxi has not changed significantly this month. The electricity price in Inner Mongolia was reduced by 0.015 yuan in mid - April, and there is an expectation of a decrease in Ningxia's electricity price [45] 3.2.3 Market Review - In April, the silicon iron futures price continued to decline, and the spot price followed the decline. As of April 28, 2025, the closing price of the silicon iron 506 contract was 5648 yuan/ton, and the silicon iron 72 in Inner Mongolia was in the price range of 5550 - 5700 yuan/ton, with a cumulative decrease of 150 yuan/ton [49]
工业硅期货早报-20250430
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-04-30 02:57
Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, despite increased cost support, weak demand and high inventory levels suggest a bearish outlook. The price of Industrial Silicon 2506 is expected to fluctuate between 8,450 - 8,630 yuan/ton [6]. - For polysilicon, although there are signs of production increase and cost stability, overall demand is currently declining but may rebound. The price of Polysilicon 2506 is predicted to oscillate between 36,785 - 37,855 yuan/ton [9][10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Views Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week's supply was 70,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [6]. - Demand: Last week's demand was 67,000 tons, a 20.23% decrease from the previous week, remaining persistently weak [6]. - Cost: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 3,139 yuan/ton, with increased cost support during the dry season [6]. - Basis: On April 29th, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9,350 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 06 contract was 810 yuan/ton, indicating a spot premium over futures [6]. - Inventory: Social inventory was 602,000 tons, a 1.63% decrease; sample enterprise inventory was 251,900 tons, a 1.46% decrease; major port inventory was 137,000 tons, unchanged [6]. - Market: The MA20 was downward, and the 06 contract price closed below the MA20 [6]. - Main Position: The main position was net short, with an increase in short positions [6]. - Forecast: Supply production is decreasing, demand is gradually recovering, and cost support is rising. The price of Industrial Silicon 2506 is expected to fluctuate between 8,450 - 8,630 yuan/ton [6]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week's production was 22,800 tons, a 2.24% increase from the previous week. The predicted production for April is 100,900 tons, a 4.99% increase from the previous month [9]. - Demand: Last week's silicon wafer production was 13.38 GW, a 1.40% decrease; inventory was 195,300 tons, a 7.18% increase. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. Battery cell production is also in a loss state, while component production is profitable [9]. - Cost: The average industry cost of N - type polysilicon is 36,940 yuan/ton, with a production profit of 3,560 yuan/ton [9]. - Basis: On April 29th, the price of N - type polysilicon was 40,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 06 contract was 3,180 yuan/ton, indicating a spot premium over futures [11]. - Inventory: Weekly inventory was 259,000 tons, a 3.18% increase, at a neutral level compared to historical data [11]. - Market: The MA20 was downward, and the 06 contract price closed below the MA20 [11]. - Main Position: The main position was net long, with a decrease in long positions [11]. - Forecast: Supply production continues to increase, while demand for silicon wafers may decrease in the medium - term after a short - term increase. Battery cell and component production are on the rise. Overall demand is currently weak but may rebound. The price of Polysilicon 2506 is expected to fluctuate between 36,785 - 37,855 yuan/ton [10]. 2. Fundamental/Position Data - Industrial silicon market overview: It includes price changes of different contracts, inventory data, production, and basis information [17]. - Polysilicon market overview: Covers price changes of different contracts, production, inventory, and cost data [19]. - Industrial silicon price - basis and delivery product price difference trends: Analyzes the historical trends of the basis and the price difference between 421 and 553 silicon [21]. - Industrial silicon inventory: Displays historical inventory data of different regions and warehouses [24]. - Industrial silicon production and capacity utilization trends: Shows the historical production and capacity utilization of different regions [25]. - Industrial silicon cost - sample region trends: Presents the historical cost and profit trends of different regions [31]. - Industrial silicon weekly and monthly supply - demand balance sheets: Analyze the supply - demand balance situation of industrial silicon on a weekly and monthly basis [33][36]. - Industrial silicon downstream - organic silicon: Includes price, production, inventory, and import - export data of organic silicon products [39]. - Industrial silicon downstream - aluminum alloy: Covers price, supply, inventory, and production data of aluminum alloy products, as well as related demand data from the automotive and wheel hub industries [47]. - Industrial silicon downstream - polysilicon: Analyzes the fundamental trends, supply - demand balance, and cost - profit data of polysilicon and its downstream products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [57].