1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is cautiously bullish, driven by both supply and demand factors. The supply is tight due to issues with mining licenses and year - end maintenance, while the demand is expected to increase as downstream enterprises may start stockpiling before the Spring Festival and the export tax - rebate policy adjustment may lead to a "non - off - season" for material manufacturers [3][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Overview - In China, the industrial added value of large - scale industries in December increased by 6.8% year - on - year, 0.6% faster than the previous month. The social consumer goods retail总额 in December increased by 5.6% year - on - year. The export amount in December reached $357.75 billion, a record high for a single month, with a year - on - year growth of 6.6% and a 0.7% increase in the growth rate compared to the previous month. Real estate investment in December decreased by 35.8% year - on - year. The CPI in December increased by 0.8% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 1.2%. The PPI in December decreased by 1.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.3%. In the US, the initial estimate of GDP in the fourth quarter showed an annualized quarter - on - quarter growth of 3.3%, far exceeding the expected 2%. The core PCE index in December increased by 2.9% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month [3]. 3.2 Supply Side - This week, the lithium carbonate production decreased slightly. Issues with mining licenses at the ore end continued to intensify, and some enterprises carried out year - end maintenance, resulting in tight market supply. As of January 23, the lithium carbonate production was 24,150 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 360 tons, and the enterprise operating rate was 52.8%, a 1.5% week - on - week decline. The lithium hydroxide supply was also tight, with a production of 6,715 tons as of January 16, a week - on - week increase of 325 tons, and an enterprise operating rate of 36.99%, a 1.79% week - on - week increase [3][10][12]. 3.3 Demand Side - From January 1 to 18, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in the national market were 312,000 units, a 16% year - on - year decrease compared to the same period in January last year and a 52% decrease compared to the same period of the previous month. The wholesale volume was 348,000 units, a 23% year - on - year decrease compared to the same period in January last year and a 46% decrease compared to the same period of the previous month. However, as the Spring Festival approaches, downstream enterprises may start stockpiling, and the adjustment of the export tax - rebate policy will promote material manufacturers to have a "non - off - season" feature, with the production of lithium iron phosphate returning to an upward trend [4][5]. 3.4 Cost and Profit - This week, the ore - end prices increased significantly. The African SC 5% was priced at $1,850 per ton, a $100 per - ton increase compared to last week; the Australian 6% spodumene CIF price was $2,325 per ton, a $75 per - ton increase compared to last week; the lithium mica market price was 6,500 yuan per ton, a 450 - yuan per - ton increase compared to last week. The lithium carbonate industry profit was 36,139 yuan per ton, a 3,529 - yuan decrease compared to last week. The lithium hydroxide industry profit expanded, with a profit of 40,022 yuan per ton as of January 16, a 11,047 - yuan increase compared to last week. However, the downstream lithium iron phosphate industry was still in a loss - making state, with a loss of 2,259 yuan per ton as of January 23, a 29 - yuan per - ton decrease compared to last week [4][49][54]. 3.5 Inventory - As of January 22, the total lithium carbonate inventory was 108,896 tons, a 783 - ton decrease compared to last week. The inventory of upstream smelters was 19,834 tons, a 107 - ton increase compared to last week. The total inventory of lithium iron phosphate decreased, with a total inventory of 29,299 tons as of January 23, a 1,487 - ton decrease compared to last week. However, the inventory of the ternary material industry increased [33][36][38]. 3.6 Market Price - As of January 23, the lithium carbonate futures contract LC2605 closed at 181,520 yuan per ton, a 24.2% increase compared to last week. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 170,000 yuan per ton, an 8% increase compared to last week. Most lithium - related products' prices increased, such as lithium iron phosphate, whose storage - type price increased by 5.73% and power - type price increased by 5.35% [7][6]. 3.7 Future Outlook - The lithium carbonate futures and spot price basis was generally stable. The lithium carbonate main contract is expected to remain strong under the drive of continuous supply disturbances and resilient demand, as the supply is expected to remain tight and the downstream demand for restocking is strong [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the given content Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - For silicon ferroalloy, prices vary by region and type, with daily and weekly changes. For example, the latest price of Ningxia 72 is 5250, with a weekly change of -70; the latest price of Tianjin 72 for export is 1045 USD, with a weekly change of 20 [1]. - For silicon manganese, prices also vary by region and type, with corresponding daily and weekly changes. For example, the latest price of Inner Mongolia 6517 is 5680, with a weekly change of -70 [1]. Supply - For silicon ferroalloy, data on production volume, capacity utilization, and export volume are presented. For example, the monthly production volume of 136 silicon ferroalloy enterprises in China from 2022 - 2026 is shown, and the monthly capacity utilization of 136 silicon ferroalloy production enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi is also provided [4]. - For silicon manganese, data on production volume, procurement volume, and export volume are presented. For example, the weekly production volume of silicon manganese in China from 2022 - 2026 is shown, and the monthly procurement volume and price of Hebei Iron and Steel Group are also provided [6]. Demand - For silicon ferroalloy, demand - related data such as the production volume of crude steel, stainless - steel crude steel, and the procurement volume of Hebei Iron and Steel Group are presented [4]. - For silicon manganese, demand - related data such as the production volume of crude steel and the estimated demand in China are presented [4][7]. Inventory - For silicon ferroalloy, inventory data of 60 sample enterprises in China, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi are presented, as well as data on warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and inventory average available days in different regions [5]. - For silicon manganese, inventory data such as warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and inventory average available days in China are presented, as well as the inventory of 63 sample enterprises in China [7]. Cost and Profit - For silicon ferroalloy, cost - related data such as electricity prices in different regions, the market price of semi - coke, and profit - related data such as production costs, profits from converting to the main contract, and export profits in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia are presented [5]. - For silicon manganese, profit - related data such as profits in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, and different regions in China, and profits from converting to the main contract in Guangxi and Ningxia are presented [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - The steel market shows weak supply and demand. The seasonal decline in rebar demand is significant, while the decline in hot - rolled coil demand is relatively small. The recent cost reduction may lead to a downward shift in the steel price center. The reference range for the May rebar contract is 3050 - 3250 yuan, and for hot - rolled coils, it is 3200 - 3350 yuan. Consider closing long positions on the steel - to - ore ratio when it rises, and continue to hold long positions on the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread [1]. Iron Ore Industry - Iron ore is facing a situation of weak supply and demand. The support factors for iron ore are reversing, with iron - making resumption falling short of expectations, potential changes in negotiation deadlocks, and the gradual fulfillment of steel mill restocking. The price is under overall pressure, and it is advisable to short at around 800 yuan [4]. Coke Industry - The coke market is currently stable. After the fourth - round price cut, some coke enterprises are resisting price cuts and limiting production to maintain prices. The mainstream coke enterprises are initiating a price increase, which is expected to be realized. The market is expected to be looser after the Spring Festival, and the price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 1600 - 1800 yuan [7]. Coking Coal Industry - The coking coal market shows a pattern of increasing supply and demand. Before the Spring Festival, the spot market is strong due to restocking demand, but the futures market has over - anticipated the price increase. After the Spring Festival, the market supply and demand are expected to be loose, and the price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 1000 - 1200 yuan [7]. Ferrosilicon Industry - The short - term supply - demand contradiction of ferrosilicon is limited, lacking upward drivers at the industrial level. The price is expected to fluctuate slightly within the range of 5300 - 5800 yuan, with short - term attention to macro and policy factors [8]. Ferromanganese Industry - Ferromanganese is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 5800 - 6000 yuan, with short - term attention to macro and policy factors [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices mostly declined. The rebar spot price in East China decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 3270 yuan/ton, and the rebar 05 contract price decreased by 23 yuan/ton to 3117 yuan/ton. The hot - rolled coil spot price in North China decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 3170 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil 05 contract price decreased by 13 yuan/ton to 3286 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The billet price decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 2930 yuan/ton. The profit of hot - rolled coils in East China decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 15 yuan/ton, and the profit of rebar in North China decreased by 20 yuan/ton to - 95 yuan/ton [1]. Production - The daily average pig iron output decreased by 1.5 tons to 228.0 tons, a decline of 0.7%. The production of five major steel products increased slightly by 0.6 tons to 819.2 tons, an increase of 0.1%. Rebar production decreased by 0.7 tons to 190.3 tons, a decrease of 0.4%, while hot - rolled coil production increased by 2.9 tons to 308.4 tons, an increase of 0.9% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 6.9 tons to 1247.0 tons, a decrease of 0.6%. The rebar inventory remained unchanged at 438.1 tons, and the hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 5.8 tons to 362.3 tons, a decrease of 1.6% [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume decreased by 0.2 to 7.6, a decrease of 2.2%. The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 29.3 tons to 826.1 tons, an increase of 3.7%. The apparent demand for rebar increased by 15.4 tons to 190.3 tons, an increase of 8.8%, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils increased by 5.8 tons to 314.2 tons, an increase of 1.9% [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of most iron ore varieties decreased, with the PB powder warehouse - receipt cost decreasing by 5.5 yuan/ton to 850.1 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.6%. The 05 - contract basis of some varieties changed slightly, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 0.5 to 17.5, a decrease of 2.8% [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 260.7 tons to 2659.7 tons, a decrease of 8.9%. The global shipment volume decreased by 251.0 tons to 2929.9 tons, a decrease of 7.9%. The national monthly import volume increased by 910.7 tons to 11964.7 tons, an increase of 8.2% [4]. Demand - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.5 tons to 228.0 tons, a decrease of 0.6%. The 45 - port daily average ore removal volume decreased by 3.4 tons to 661.3 tons, a decrease of 1.0%. The national monthly pig iron output decreased by 162.3 tons to 6072.0 tons, a decrease of 2.6%, and the national monthly crude steel output decreased by 169.1 tons [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 279.8 tons to 16555.10 tons, an increase of 1.7%. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 272.6 tons to 9262.2 tons, an increase of 3.0%. The inventory - available days of 64 steel mills increased by 2.0 days to 21.0 days, an increase of 10.5% [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged. The coke 05 contract price increased by 10 yuan/ton to 1684 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.6%. The coking profit decreased by 20 yuan/ton [7]. Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal remained unchanged, while the price of Mongolian 5 raw coal decreased by 27 yuan/ton to 1193 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.2%. The coking coal 05 contract price increased by 5 yuan/ton to 1129 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.4%. The sample coal mine profit increased by 18 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.74% [7]. Supply - The daily average coke output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.1 tons to 63.5 tons, a decrease of 0.2%. The daily average coke output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.2 tons to 46.7 tons, a decrease of 0.3%. The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased by 2.7 tons to 853.4 tons, a decrease of 0.3% [7]. Demand - The pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.5 tons to 228.0 tons, a decrease of 0.6%. The daily average coke output of all - sample coking plants and 247 steel mills decreased slightly [7]. Inventory - The total coke inventory increased by 4.3 tons to 920.2 tons, an increase of 0.5%. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 4.3 tons to 81.8 tons, a decrease of 4.9%, while the coke inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 4.6 tons to 650.3 tons, an increase of 0.7%. The coking coal inventory of various sectors increased to varying degrees [7]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Spot Prices and Spreads - The spot prices of ferrosilicon in most regions remained unchanged, with the 72% FeSi in Inner Mongolia at 5250 yuan/ton. The spot prices of ferromanganese in some regions also remained unchanged, with the FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia at 5680 yuan/ton. The ferrosilicon主力合约收盘价 increased by 4.0 yuan/ton to 5556.0 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.14%, and the ferromanganese主力合约收盘价 increased by 26.0 yuan/ton to 5786.0 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.5% [8]. Cost and Profit - The production cost of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia decreased slightly, and the production profit increased slightly. The manganese ore prices of some varieties decreased slightly [8]. Supply - The ferrosilicon production enterprise's weekly start - up rate decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 29.2%, a decrease of 1.4%. The ferromanganese weekly output remained unchanged at 19.1 tons, and the start - up rate decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 36.1%, a decrease of 2.0% [8]. Demand - The ferrosilicon demand (calculated by Steel Union) decreased slightly, and the ferromanganese demand remained unchanged. The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.5 tons to 228.0 tons, a decrease of 0.6% [8]. Inventory - The ferrosilicon inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased by 0.5 tons to 6.4 tons, a decrease of 7.5%. The inventory of 63 sample enterprises of ferromanganese decreased by 1.0 tons to 37.3 tons, a decrease of 2.5% [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - The steel industry shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. Before the Spring Festival, domestic demand is weak, and prices have fully factored in the weak demand. The decline in production and the accumulation of raw materials have led to a weakening of raw material prices, and the recent cost reduction may cause the steel price center to shift downwards. The reference range for the May contract of rebar is 3050 - 3250 yuan/ton, and for hot - rolled coils, it is 3200 - 3350 yuan/ton. It is recommended to hold long positions in the steel - to - iron ore ratio and long positions in the hot - rolled coil to rebar price spread [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The iron ore market faces a situation of weak supply and demand. The price is constrained by high inventory on the upside and supported by the expectation of steel mill restocking on the downside. In the short term, attention should be paid to the resumption of iron - making production, macro - level narratives, and the rhythm of steel mill restocking. In the long term, negotiation situations need to be monitored. It is expected that the iron ore price will fluctuate widely, with a recommended trading range of 770 - 830 [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - For coke, after the fourth round of spot price cuts, some coke enterprises are resisting further price cuts and are considering production cuts to maintain prices. The mainstream coke enterprises have initiated a price increase, which is expected to be implemented. The futures price of coke has fallen in advance, and the spot price decline depends on the decline of coking coal. It is recommended to be bearish on the futures price and consider an arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short coke. - For coking coal, although there is a demand for spot restocking before the Spring Festival, the futures price has already factored in the increase. After the Spring Festival, the market supply and demand are expected to be loose. It is also recommended to be bearish on the futures price and consider an arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short coke [5]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - Ferrosilicon: In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction is limited, and there is a lack of upward momentum at the industrial level. It is expected that the price will fluctuate widely, with a reference range of 5300 - 5800 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to macro - level and policy - related narratives. - Ferromanganese: It is in a situation of weak supply and demand. High inventory suppresses the price in the short term, but manganese ore provides support. It is expected that the price will fluctuate widely, with a reference range of 5600 - 6000 yuan/ton [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices mostly declined, except for the 01 contract of rebar and hot - rolled coil, which increased [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet prices decreased, while plate billet prices remained unchanged. The costs of different types of steel production varied, and the profits of most regions showed an upward trend [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average iron - making production decreased by 1.5 tons to 228.0 tons, a decline of 0.7%. The production of five major steel products increased slightly by 0.6 tons to 819.2 tons, a rise of 0.1%. The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 6.9 tons to 1247.0 tons, a decline of 0.6% [1]. Trading and Demand - The daily average building material trading volume decreased by 1.0 to 8.5, a decline of 10.4%. The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 29.3 tons to 826.1 tons, a rise of 3.7% [1]. Iron Ore Industry Prices and Spreads - The prices of iron ore spot, warehouse - receipt costs, and price indices mostly declined. The 5 - 9 spread and 1 - 5 spread also decreased [3]. Supply - The 45 - port weekly arrival volume decreased by 260.7 tons to 2659.7 tons, a decline of 8.9%. The global weekly shipping volume decreased by 251.0 tons to 2929.9 tons, a decline of 7.9%. However, the national monthly import volume increased by 910.7 tons to 11964.7 tons, a rise of 8.2% [3]. Demand - The daily average iron - making production of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.5 tons to 228.0 tons, a decline of 0.6%. The 45 - port daily average ore - unloading volume decreased by 3.4 tons to 661.3 tons, a decline of 1.0%. The national monthly pig - iron and crude - steel production also decreased [3]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 279.8 tons to 16555.1 tons, a rise of 1.7%. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 272.6 tons to 9262.2 tons, a rise of 3.0%. The inventory - available days of 64 steel mills increased by 2 days to 21 days, a rise of 10.5% [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Prices and Spreads - Coke and coking coal futures prices showed a slight upward trend, while the basis of some contracts decreased. The coking profit decreased, while the coal - mine profit increased [5]. Supply - The daily average coke production of full - sample coking plants and 247 steel mills decreased slightly. The production of raw coal and clean coal in sample coal mines also decreased slightly [5]. Demand - The iron - making production of 247 steel mills decreased slightly, and the demand for coke and coking coal showed mixed trends [5]. Inventory - Coke inventory increased slightly overall, with ports and steel mills accumulating inventory and coking plants reducing inventory. Coking coal inventory also increased slightly, with all links in the supply chain accumulating inventory [5]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Prices - The futures prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese declined slightly, and the spot prices of most regions also decreased [6]. Cost and Profit - The production costs of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese in different regions showed different trends, and the production profits generally decreased [6]. Supply - The weekly production of ferrosilicon decreased slightly, and the production of ferromanganese remained stable. The production start - up rates of both decreased [6]. Demand - The demand for ferrosilicon and ferromanganese decreased slightly, and the iron - making production and blast - furnace start - up rate also decreased [6]. Inventory - The inventory of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese decreased slightly, and the average available days of inventory also decreased [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel - Steel supply and demand are both weak, with controllable real - inventory pressure and limited industrial contradictions. Prices follow raw material fluctuations, and the steel price is expected to fluctuate within a range. The reference range for the May contract of rebar is 3050 - 3250 yuan, and for hot - rolled coils is 3200 - 3350 yuan [1]. Iron Ore - Iron ore faces a situation of weak supply and demand. The price is suppressed by high inventory on the upside and supported by steel mill restocking expectations and hot - metal复产 on the downside. It is expected to maintain high - level volatility, with a reference range of 770 - 830 [4]. Coke - After the fourth round of price cuts for coke, some coke enterprises resist further cuts and initiate price increases, which are expected to be implemented. It is recommended to go long on the dips and pay attention to the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Coking Coal - Driven by pre - Spring Festival restocking demand, it is recommended to go long on the dips and pay attention to the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Ferrosilicon - Short - term ferrosilicon supply - demand contradictions are limited, and there is a lack of upward drivers at the industrial level. After a pullback, one can try to go long on the dips, with a bottom support reference of around 5500 [7]. Silicomanganese - Silicomanganese is in a situation of weak supply and demand. High inventory suppresses prices in the short term, but manganese ore provides support. It is expected to fluctuate widely, with a local support reference of around 5800 [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices in different regions have varying degrees of increase or decrease. The spread between the May contracts of hot - rolled coils and rebar has widened to 161 [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices remain unchanged. The costs of different types of steel production have different changes, and the profits of different regions and varieties also vary [1]. Supply - The daily average hot - metal output has decreased by 0.7%, and the output of the five major steel products has increased slightly by 0.1%. The output of rebar and hot - rolled coils has different trends [1]. Inventory - The inventory of the five major steel products has decreased by 0.6%. The inventory of rebar remains unchanged, and the inventory of hot - rolled coils has decreased by 1.6% [1]. Demand - The demand has decreased month - on - month, mainly due to the seasonal weakening of rebar demand. The apparent demand for rebar remains low, while that for hot - rolled coils has recovered month - on - month, better than the seasonal average in previous years [1]. Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs and 05 - contract basis of various iron ore varieties have slightly decreased. The 5 - 9 spread and 1 - 5 spread have changed to different extents [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume has increased by 5.9%, the global shipment volume has decreased by 1.0%, and the national monthly import volume has increased by 8.2% [4]. Demand - The daily average hot - metal output of 247 steel mills has decreased by 0.6%, the 45 - port daily average desulfurization volume has decreased by 1.0%, and the national monthly pig iron and crude steel output have decreased [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory has increased by 1.7%, the 247 steel mills' imported ore inventory has increased by 3.0%, and the inventory - available days of 64 steel mills have increased by 10.5% [4]. Coke Prices and Spreads - Coke and coking coal spot and futures prices have decreased to different extents. The basis and spreads of different contracts have also changed [6]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants has decreased by 0.2%, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills has decreased by 0.3% [6]. Demand - The hot - metal output of 247 steel mills has decreased by 0.6% [6]. Inventory - The total coke inventory has increased by 0.5%, and the coking coal inventory of different entities has different trends [6]. Supply - Demand Gap - The coke supply - demand gap has increased by 188.0% [6]. Ferrosilicon Prices and Spreads - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese futures and spot prices have decreased. The spreads between different regions and contracts have changed [7]. Cost and Profit - The production costs of ferrosilicon in different regions have slightly changed, and the production profits have decreased. The prices of manganese ore raw materials remain stable [7]. Supply - The weekly output of ferrosilicon has decreased slightly, and the production enterprises' operating rate has decreased by 1.4% [7]. Demand - The weekly demand for ferrosilicon has decreased, and the iron - making - related demand indicators have also decreased [7]. Inventory - The inventory of 60 sample ferrosilicon enterprises has decreased by 7.5%, and the average available days of downstream ferrosilicon have decreased [7]. Silicomanganese Prices and Spreads - Silicomanganese futures and spot prices have decreased, and the spreads between different regions and contracts have changed [7]. Cost and Profit - The production costs of silicomanganese in different regions remain stable, and the manganese ore prices are strong [7]. Supply - The weekly output of silicomanganese remains unchanged, and the operating rate has decreased by 0.1% [7]. Demand - The demand for silicomanganese has decreased, and the iron - making - related demand indicators have also decreased [7]. Inventory - The inventory of 63 sample silicomanganese enterprises has decreased by 2.5%, and the average available days of silicomanganese inventory have decreased [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the given content Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - For silicon iron (FeSi), prices vary by region and grade, e.g., Ningxia 72 is 5320, Inner Mongolia 72 is 5350 [1] - For silicon manganese (SiMn), the closing price of the main contract on CZCE shows different trends over the years [6] - There are price differences in different regions and grades of FeSi and SiMn, such as the north - south price difference of SiMn [6] Supply - The production of 136 silicon iron enterprises in China shows different trends over the years, and the production capacity utilization rate also varies by region [4] - The production of silicon manganese in China shows a changing trend, and the procurement volume of HeSteel Group also changes over time [6] Demand - The demand for silicon manganese in China (by Steel Union's caliber) shows an upward trend over the years [4][7] - The production of crude steel in China has an impact on the demand for ferroalloys [4][7] Inventory - The inventory of 60 sample silicon iron enterprises in China and different regions shows different trends over the years [5] - The inventory - related data of silicon manganese, including warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and the sum of them, show different trends [7] Cost and Profit - The production cost and profit of silicon iron in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia show different trends over the years [5] - The profit of silicon manganese in different regions, such as Inner Mongolia and Guangxi, also shows different trends [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views Steel - Steel prices fluctuated within a range, with this week's data showing increased production, accumulated inventory, and a significant decline in apparent demand. The current demand is in a seasonal off - peak, while steel mill production has rebounded from a low level, resulting in increased supply and decreased demand, and inventory has stopped falling and started to rise. Before the Spring Festival, steel usually accumulates inventory seasonally. The decline in the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils is not significant, and attention should be paid to whether the inventory accumulation is lower than expected. The raw materials, coking coal and iron ore, support steel prices due to strong supply - side expectations. The fluctuation range of rebar is expected to be between 3000 - 3200, and that of hot - rolled coils between 3150 - 3350 [1]. Iron Ore - The iron ore market is expected to transition from a situation of loose supply and demand to a situation of weak supply and demand. The price is suppressed by high inventory on the upside and supported by the expectation of steel mill restocking on the downside, and it is expected to maintain high - level volatility. In the short term, it is necessary to pay attention to macro - sentiment, policy expectations, and the rhythm of steel mill restocking. In the long term, negotiation situations should be monitored. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate widely, and the recommended strategy is range - bound trading, with a reference range of 770 - 830 [4]. Coke and Coking Coal - For coke, the futures market saw a peak - to - fall trend, while the spot market is weakly stable. After the fourth round of price cuts, some coke enterprises are resisting further price cuts and implementing production restrictions to maintain prices. The supply is recovering, and the demand is increasing as steel mills resume production after the New Year. The overall inventory is slightly increasing in the middle position, and the supply - demand situation has improved. The recommended strategy is to go short on the spot at high prices on a light - position basis and consider an arbitrage strategy of going long on coke and short on coking coal. For coking coal, the futures market continued to rise, and the spot market also showed a mixed performance. The supply is gradually recovering, and the demand is increasing as steel mills reduce losses and increase production. The overall inventory is slightly increasing in the middle position. The recommended strategy is to go short on the spot at high prices on a light - position basis and consider an arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - For ferrosilicon, the futures price dropped significantly, mainly affected by market sentiment. The supply is at a historically neutral - low level, with some potential for short - term increase. The demand from the steel - making industry has some support, and the non - steel demand, such as from the metal magnesium industry, is also strong. The cost is relatively stable, and the supply - demand contradiction has been alleviated. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range of 5500 - 6200. For silicomanganese, the futures price also decreased. The supply is relatively stable, and the demand from the steel - making industry is increasing. The manganese ore price provides support for the silicomanganese price. The supply - demand situation is in a state of slight oversupply but with overall balance in manganese elements. The price is expected to fluctuate widely, and the recommended strategy is range - bound trading, with a reference range of 5800 - 6300 [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices showed different trends. For example, rebar in North China increased by 30 yuan/ton, while hot - rolled coils in East China decreased by 10 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The cost of steel billets and slab remained unchanged, while the cost of Jiangsu's electric - arc furnace and converter rebar increased slightly. The profit of rebar in South China increased by 48, and the profit of hot - rolled coils in North China increased by 5 [1]. Production - The daily average pig iron output increased by 1.6 to 229.0, a 0.7% increase. The output of five major steel products increased by 3.4 to 818.6, a 0.4% increase. The rebar output increased by 2.8 to 191.0, a 1.5% increase [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products increased by 21.8 to 1253.9, a 1.8% increase. The rebar inventory increased by 16.1 to 438.1, a 3.8% increase, while the hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 2.8 to 368.1, a 0.8% decrease [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume decreased by 4.2 to 8.4, a 33.1% decrease. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 44.2 to 796.8, a 5.3% decrease. The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 25.5 to 175.0, a 12.7% decrease [1]. Iron Ore Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore powders decreased, and the basis of the 05 - contract for different iron ore powders increased. The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 2.5 to 21.0, a 10.6% decrease, while the 1 - 5 spread increased by 34.0 to 45.0, a 309.1% increase [4]. Supply - The global iron ore shipping volume decreased by 463.4 to 3213.7, a 12.6% decrease, and the national monthly import volume decreased by 76.9 to 11054.0, a 0.7% decrease [4]. Demand - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.8 to 227.4, a 0.4% increase, and the daily average port clearance volume of 45 ports increased by 10.2 to 325.2, a 3.2% increase [4]. Inventory Changes - The inventory of 45 ports increased by 41.8 to 15970.89, a 0.3% increase, and the inventory of imported iron ore in 247 steel mills increased by 86.4 to 8946.5, a 1.0% increase [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi's quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse - receipt) remained unchanged, while the price of Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse - receipt) increased by 11, a 0.7% increase [6]. Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi's medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse - receipt) remained unchanged, while the price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal (warehouse - receipt) increased by 33, a 2.8% increase [6]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.9 to 63.6, a 1.4% increase, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1 to 46.9, a 0.1% increase [6]. Demand - The pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 2.1 to 229.5, a 0.9% increase [6]. Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory remained basically unchanged, with the inventory of all - sample coking plants decreasing by 5.5 to 86.1, a 6.0% decrease, and the inventory of 247 steel mills increasing by 1.7 to 645.7, a 0.3% increase [6]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese Spot Prices and Spreads - The price of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese decreased. For example, the ferrosilicon 72% FeSi in Inner Mongolia decreased from 5750.0 to 5350.0, and the silicomanganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia increased from 5300.0 to 5650.0 [7]. Cost and Profit - The cost of some manganese ores increased slightly, and the production profit of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia decreased significantly [7]. Supply - The production of ferrosilicon decreased slightly, and the production of silicomanganese decreased by 0.3 to 19.1 [7]. Demand - The demand for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese from the steel - making industry increased slightly [7]. Inventory Changes - The inventory of ferrosilicon in 60 sample enterprises increased by 0.5 to 6.9, a 7.1% increase, and the inventory of silicomanganese in 63 sample enterprises decreased by 1.1 to 38.3, a 2.8% decrease [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Crude Oil**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **LPG**: Bearish rebound [1] - **L**: Bearish rebound [1] - **PP**: Bearish rebound [1] - **PVC**: Bearish rebound [1] - **PX/PTA**: Buy on pullback [3] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Close short positions [3] - **Methanol**: Cautiously bullish [3] - **Urea**: Cautiously chase up [3] - **Natural Gas**: Cautiously bearish [6] - **Asphalt**: Bearish rebound [6] - **Glass**: Bearish rebound [6] - **Soda Ash**: Bearish rebound [6] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical changes in South America lead to a short - term rebound in oil prices, but they remain under pressure in the medium and long term. The supply is in surplus during the off - season, and attention should be paid to changes in US shale oil production and geopolitical developments in Russia, Ukraine, and South America [1][10]. - **LPG**: Cost - side support boosts LPG prices in the short term. In the medium and long term, it is anchored to the cost - side crude oil, with a downward trend overall [1]. - **L**: After the holiday, the inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina has significantly increased. The supply is still sufficient, and there is pressure to reduce inventory in the future [1][21]. - **PP**: The total commercial inventory is being reduced from a high level. Pay attention to the dynamics of PDH devices. Short - term supply - demand contradictions are not prominent [1][25]. - **PVC**: The thermal coal price has stopped falling and stabilized, and the industry chain has restocked. Most domestic devices are losing cash flow, and some marginal devices have started to reduce their loads [1][29]. - **PX/PTA**: The valuation is not low. The supply - side maintenance efforts are large, and the downstream demand is relatively good but expected to weaken. The short - term supply - demand is tight, and attention should be paid to the negative feedback from the demand side [3][31]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The valuation is low, but there is a lack of upward drivers. It follows the cost fluctuations in the short term, and there is an expectation of maintenance in Q1 2026 [3][34]. - **Methanol**: The valuation is not low. The supply - side pressure still exists, the demand side is slightly weakening, and the cost support is slightly stable. The supply - demand is slightly loose, but the downside space may be limited [3][38]. - **Urea**: The absolute valuation is not low. The supply - side pressure is expected to increase in mid - January. The demand side is weakening recently, and the social inventory is being reduced but remains at a relatively high level [3][43]. - **Natural Gas**: The US natural gas inventory has decreased, and the gas price has rebounded, but it remains under pressure in the medium and long term. The supply is relatively sufficient, and the demand - side support has declined [6][48]. - **Asphalt**: The valuation is gradually returning to normal. The cost - side oil price is weak, and attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation in South America. The supply - demand is generally loose [6][51]. - **Glass**: The in - factory inventory has changed from increasing to decreasing, and there is short - term cold - repair expectation support. The supply - demand is weak, and the real estate market is in an adjustment period [6][56]. - **Soda Ash**: The warehouse receipts have increased, and the in - factory inventory has decreased for two consecutive times. It rebounds at a low level following the glass. The long - term supply pattern is loose, and the demand support is insufficient [6][60]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices slightly declined. WTI decreased by 0.22%, Brent decreased by 0.26%, and SC increased by 0.69% [9]. - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical changes in South America may cause short - term strength in oil prices, but the supply surplus situation remains unchanged. The supply is in surplus during the off - season, and the global crude oil inventory is accumulating rapidly [10]. - **Fundamentals**: On January 3, the US took military action against Venezuela, which may cause a short - term rebound in oil prices. Japan's crude oil imports in November increased by 7.0% year - on - year. As of December 19, the US crude oil and refined product inventories all increased [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium and long term, OPEC+ is expanding production and pressing down prices. Hold short positions and buy call options for risk control. Pay attention to the range of [425 - 435] for SC [12]. LPG - **Market Review**: On December 30, the PG main contract closed at 4092 yuan/ton, up 0.52% month - on - month. The spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 4320, 4380, and 4510 yuan/ton respectively [15]. - **Basic Logic**: Saudi Arabia raised the latest CP contract price, which boosts the gas price in the short term. In the medium and long term, it is anchored to the oil price and is under pressure. The supply is increasing, and the downstream chemical demand is resilient [16]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium and long term, the upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand, and the LPG price still has room for compression. Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of [4100 - 4200] for PG [17]. L - **Market Review**: The L05 contract price increased by 0.2%, and the L01 contract price decreased by 1.7%. The L05 basis was - 202 yuan/ton, and the L59 spread was 37 yuan/ton [19][20]. - **Basic Logic**: After the holiday, the inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina has significantly increased. The supply - demand is weak, and there is pressure to reduce inventory in the future [21]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see in the short term. In the medium and long term, it is in a high - production cycle. Wait for a rebound to go short. Hold the short position of the LP05 spread. Pay attention to the range of [6400 - 6550] for L [21]. PP - **Market Review**: The PP05 contract price increased by 0.4%. The PP05 basis was - 136 yuan/ton, and the PP59 spread was - 20 yuan/ton [23][24]. - **Basic Logic**: The total commercial inventory is being reduced from a high level. Pay attention to the dynamics of PDH devices. Short - term supply - demand contradictions are not prominent [25]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see. Short the MTO05 spread. Pay attention to the range of [6300 - 6450] for PP [25]. PVC - **Market Review**: The V05 contract price decreased by 0.1%. The V05 basis was - 305 yuan/ton, the V59 spread was - 134 yuan/ton, and the warehouse receipts were 108,557 lots [27][28]. - **Basic Logic**: The thermal coal price has stopped falling and stabilized, and the industry chain has restocked. Most domestic devices are losing cash flow, and some marginal devices have started to reduce their loads [29]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take partial profits on long positions. In the medium and long term, wait for the inventory to be continuously reduced and go long on pullbacks. Industrial customers can hedge at high prices. Pay attention to the range of [4700 - 4900] for V [29]. PTA - **Market Review**: The TA05 contract price was 5110 yuan/ton. The TA05 basis was - 13 yuan/ton, and the TA5 - 9 spread was 100 yuan/ton [30][31]. - **Basic Logic**: The valuation is not low. The supply - side maintenance efforts are large, and the downstream demand is relatively good but expected to weaken. The short - term supply - demand is tight, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in January [31]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The supply - demand is in a tight balance. Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on pullbacks for the 05 contract. Pay attention to the range of [5120 - 5250] for TA05 [32]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: The EG05 contract price was 3609 yuan/ton. The EG05 basis was - 125 yuan/ton, and the EG5 - 9 spread was - 93 yuan/ton [33][34]. - **Basic Logic**: The valuation is low, but there is a lack of upward drivers. The domestic device load has increased, and the port inventory has continued to rise. The demand is relatively good but expected to weaken [34]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Close short positions and pay attention to the opportunity to short on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of [3780 - 3880] for EG05 [35]. Methanol - **Market Review**: The main contract of methanol decreased in position and increased in price. The East China basis and the 1 - 5 spread strengthened [38]. - **Basic Logic**: The valuation is not low. The supply - side pressure still exists, the demand side is slightly weakening, and the cost support is slightly stable. The supply - demand is slightly loose, but the downside space may be limited [38]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The arrival volume in December is high, and the supply - side pressure is still large. The demand side is suppressed by the weak olefin market. Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on pullbacks for the 05 contract. Pay attention to the range of [2205 - 2265] for MA05 [40]. Urea - **Market Review**: The main contract of urea closed at 1749 yuan/ton. The Shandong small - particle basis was - 39 yuan/ton, and the ur1 - 5 spread was - 88 yuan/ton [44]. - **Basic Logic**: The Shandong small - particle urea spot price has stabilized. The supply - side pressure is expected to increase in mid - January. The demand side is weakening recently, and the social inventory is being reduced but remains at a relatively high level [43]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The winter storage benefit is relatively limited, and the export window is still open. There is an expectation of spring fertilizer use trading. Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on pullbacks for the 05 contract. Pay attention to the range of [1720 - 1750] for UR05 [45]. Natural Gas - **Market Review**: On December 31, the NG main contract closed at 3.686 US dollars/million British thermal units, down 7.20% month - on - month [47]. - **Basic Logic**: The demand side has entered the consumption peak season, but the recent weather in the US is relatively mild, and the demand - side support for the gas price has declined. The supply side is relatively abundant, and the gas price is under pressure [48]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the Northern Hemisphere winter, the demand for combustion and heating increases, but the gas price has reached a high level in recent years, and the supply is relatively sufficient. The gas price is under downward pressure. Pay attention to the range of [3.250 - 3.680] for NG [48]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: On December 31, the BU main contract closed at 3022 yuan/ton, down 0.53% month - on - month. The market prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 2950, 3090, and 2940 yuan/ton respectively [50]. - **Basic Logic**: The price is mainly anchored to the cost - side crude oil. The oil price rebounds in the short term due to geopolitical disturbances in the Middle East and South America and is under pressure in the medium and long term. The supply in January 2026 is expected to decrease, and the demand has increased slightly [51]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The valuation has returned to normal, but there is still room for compression. The supply is sufficient, and the demand has entered the off - season. Short positions should pay attention to risk prevention. Pay attention to the range of [3000 - 3200] for BU [52]. Glass - **Market Review**: The FG05 contract price remained unchanged. The FG05 basis was - 87 yuan/ton, the FG59 spread was - 104 yuan/ton, and the warehouse receipts were 1676 lots [54][55]. - **Basic Logic**: The in - factory inventory has changed from increasing to decreasing, and there is short - term cold - repair expectation support. The supply - demand is weak, and the real estate market is in an adjustment period [56]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term supply reduction supports the price. Go long near the moving average. In the medium and long term, wait for a rebound to go short. Pay attention to the range of [1070 - 1120] for FG [56]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The SA05 contract price increased by 2.7%. The SA05 basis was - 58 yuan/ton, the SA59 spread was - 64 yuan/ton, and the warehouse receipts were 4444 lots [58][59]. - **Basic Logic**: The warehouse receipts have increased, and the in - factory inventory has decreased for two consecutive times. It rebounds at a low level following the glass. The long - term supply pattern is loose, and the demand support is insufficient [60]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The price fluctuates strongly in the short term. In the medium and long term, wait for a rebound to go short. Pay attention to the range of [1200 - 1240] for SA [60].

Demand - From January to November, national fixed asset investment decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, with a widening decline of 0.9 percentage points compared to January to October. Real estate development investment fell by 15.9%, a decline that expanded by 1.2 percentage points compared to the previous period. Infrastructure investment decreased by 1.1%, with a decline of 1 percentage point compared to January to October. Manufacturing investment grew by 1.9%, a slowdown of 0.8 percentage points compared to January to September, indicating a continued downward trend in investment growth and weak steel demand [1][2] - In December, weekly average demand for rebar was 2.08 million tons, down 7% from November, while hot-rolled coil demand was 3.08 million tons, down 3% from November. Overall, December steel demand was in line with seasonal characteristics, remaining stable year-on-year. In January, demand is expected to weaken significantly due to falling temperatures and the upcoming Spring Festival [1][2] Supply - From January to November, China's crude steel production was 891.67 million tons and 774.05 million tons, down 4% and 2.3% year-on-year, respectively. In November, crude steel and pig iron production were 6.987 million tons and 6.234 million tons, down 10.9% and 8.7% year-on-year. Daily average pig iron production in December was 2.2658 million tons, down from November [2] - In December, production of the five major steel products, including rebar and hot-rolled coil, decreased, with weekly production of the five major products down by 58.9 million tons, rebar down by 21.7 million tons, and hot-rolled coil down by 25.5 million tons. Steel mills continued to reduce production, alleviating supply pressure significantly [2] Inventory - In December, inventory of the five major steel products decreased by 1.428 million tons, with rebar inventory down by 972,000 tons and hot-rolled coil inventory down by 237,000 tons. However, total inventory of the five major products increased year-on-year by 1.4862 million tons, with rebar and hot-rolled coil inventories up by 345,100 tons and 701,300 tons, respectively. The accelerated decline in inventory in December, amid production cuts, alleviated both total inventory and structural contradictions, particularly in rebar, where many regions experienced specification shortages, providing strong support for steel prices [2][3] Exports - In November, China exported 9.98 million tons of steel, an increase of 200,000 tons from October, representing a month-on-month growth of 2.04%. Cumulatively, from January to November, steel exports reached 10.772 million tons, up 6.7% year-on-year. However, starting January 1, 2026, the implementation of the "Steel Product Export License Management" system is expected to increase export pressure, leading to a noticeable decline in export volume [3] Costs - In December, iron ore prices remained firm, while the fourth round of coke price reductions was implemented, leading to improved profitability for long-process steel mills and a narrowing of losses for short-process steel mills. The profitability of 247 steel mills rose to 38.1%, indicating a potential weakening of cost support for steel prices. However, in January, steel mills are expected to replenish raw materials, which may lead to stronger performance in raw material prices compared to finished products [3][4] Summary - The steel market in December faced insufficient contradictions and weak driving forces, resulting in continued narrow fluctuations in steel prices. In January, demand is expected to weaken significantly due to falling temperatures and the upcoming Spring Festival, while supply may increase as steel mill profitability improves. The market is anticipated to shift to a scenario of strong supply and weak demand, with inventory entering a period of accumulation. Additionally, the implementation of the steel product export license system and customs tax verification is expected to lead to a temporary decline in steel exports, increasing supply-demand pressure and potentially leading to weaker steel prices [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Although the geopolitical premium has completely dissipated, OPEC's production increase is minimal. As the OPEC supply has not yet increased significantly, oil prices should not be overly bearish in the short term. Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high for oil prices, but currently, oil prices need to test OPEC's willingness to support prices through exports. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and wait for a decline in OPEC exports when oil prices fall for verification [3]. - After the bullish factors are realized, the methanol market will enter a short - term consolidation. The inventory in ports will further decline due to reverse flow and trans - shipment. However, the import volume will remain high, and the olefin plants in ports have maintenance plans, so the port pressure still exists. The overall supply is at a high level, and the methanol fundamentals still face some pressure, with the price expected to consolidate at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading [4]. - The urea market is showing signs of improvement in supply - demand balance. The reserve demand and the increase in compound fertilizer production have boosted short - term demand, and the supply is expected to decline seasonally. With export policy and cost support, the downside space is limited, and it is expected to build a bottom through oscillation. It is advisable to consider buying at low prices [7]. - The natural rubber market has different views from bulls and bears. Bulls are optimistic due to seasonal expectations and demand prospects, while bears are pessimistic because of weak demand. Currently, it is recommended to adopt a neutral approach, wait and see, and partially close the hedging position of buying RU2605 and selling RU2609 [9][10]. - The PVC market has low valuation pressure in the short term, but the supply reduction is small, and the production is at a historical high. The domestic demand is in the off - season, and although the Indian BIS policy has been revoked and there is no expected anti - dumping tax, there is still off - season pressure. In the context of strong supply and weak demand, it is advisable to short on rallies in the medium term [14]. - The non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately low, and there is significant room for valuation repair. The cost - side pure benzene supply is still abundant, and the styrene production is increasing. The styrene port inventory has been accumulating, and the demand is in the off - season. It is advisable to go long on non - integrated styrene profit before the first quarter of next year [17]. - For polyethylene, OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in the first quarter of 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed out. The spot price of polyethylene has increased, and the inventory is expected to decline from a high level. It is advisable to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread at low prices [20]. - For polypropylene, the EIA monthly report predicts an increase in global oil inventories and a potential expansion of the supply surplus. The supply pressure will ease in the first half of 2026, and the demand is in a seasonal oscillation. With high inventory pressure, the price may bottom out in the first quarter of next year [22]. - The PX load remains high, and the downstream PTA has many maintenance plans. It is expected to accumulate inventory slightly before the maintenance season. The valuation has increased significantly, and both PX and PTA are expected to have strong supply - demand in the coming year. It is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of going long at low prices in the medium term while being aware of the callback risk [25]. - The PTA supply will maintain high - level maintenance in the short term, and the demand will decline due to profit pressure and the off - season. It is expected to enter the inventory - building stage during the Spring Festival after short - term inventory reduction. The valuation has room to increase in the coming year, but attention should be paid to the callback risk in the short term. It is advisable to go long at low prices in the medium term [28]. - The ethylene glycol industry has a high overall load, and the port inventory - building cycle will continue. Although the overseas unexpected maintenance has increased, the domestic reduction is insufficient. The valuation is moderately low year - on - year, and the valuation may need to be compressed without further domestic production cuts in the medium term [30]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main INE crude oil futures closed up 0.50 yuan/barrel, a 0.11% increase, at 436.10 yuan/barrel. The US EIA weekly data showed that the US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 0.41 million barrels to 424.82 million barrels, a 0.10% increase; the SPR increased by 0.80 million barrels to 412.97 million barrels, a 0.19% increase; gasoline inventory increased by 2.86 million barrels to 228.49 million barrels, a 1.27% increase; diesel inventory increased by 0.20 million barrels to 118.70 million barrels, a 0.17% increase; fuel oil inventory increased by 0.85 million barrels to 22.99 million barrels, a 3.85% increase; aviation kerosene inventory increased by 1.32 million barrels to 44.89 million barrels, a 3.02% increase [2]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high for oil prices, but currently, wait and see in the short term and wait for a decline in OPEC exports when oil prices fall for verification [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices: Jiangsu changed by 5 yuan/ton, Lunan by - 15 yuan/ton, Henan by 10 yuan/ton, Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia by - 20 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by 58 yuan/ton, at 2219 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit was - 26 yuan [3]. - **Strategy**: After the bullish factors are realized, the market will enter short - term consolidation. The port inventory will decline, but there is still pressure. The overall supply is high, and the fundamentals face some pressure. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices: Shandong changed by - 20 yuan/ton, Henan by - 10 yuan/ton, Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, Hubei by 0 yuan/ton, Jiangsu by - 10 yuan/ton, Shanxi by - 20 yuan/ton, and Northeast by 0 yuan/ton. The overall basis was - 43 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by 8 yuan/ton, at 1743 yuan/ton [4]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand balance is improving. With export policy and cost support, the downside space is limited. It is advisable to consider buying at low prices [7]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The bullish view of natural rubber RU is based on limited production growth in Southeast Asia, seasonal price increases in the second half of the year, and improved demand in China. The bearish view is due to uncertain macro - expectations, off - season demand, and the postponed EUDR. As of December 25, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 62.20%, 2.46 percentage points lower than last week and 0.02 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 73.74%, 0.98 percentage points higher than last week but 5.05 percentage points lower than the same period last year. As of December 21, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 118.2 tons, a 2.5% increase [9][10]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a neutral approach, wait and see, and partially close the hedging position of buying RU2605 and selling RU2609 [10]. PVC - **Market Information**: The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4520 (+20) yuan/ton, the basis was - 257 (+75) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 133 (- 3) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 77.2%, a 0.2% decrease; the calcium carbide method was 78.5%, a 0.8% increase; the ethylene method was 74.3%, a 2.3% decrease. The overall downstream operating rate was 44.5%, a 0.9% decrease. The factory inventory was 30.6 tons (- 2.2), and the social inventory was 106 tons (+0.4) [11][13]. - **Strategy**: The valuation pressure is low in the short term, but the supply is high, and the demand is in the off - season. In the context of strong supply and weak demand, it is advisable to short on rallies in the medium term [14]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5310 yuan/ton, unchanged; the closing price of the active contract was 5487 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis was - 177 yuan/ton, a 18 - yuan reduction. The spot price of styrene was 6850 yuan/ton, a 125 - yuan increase; the closing price of the active contract was 6781 yuan/ton, a 44 - yuan increase; the basis was 69 yuan/ton, a 81 - yuan strengthening. The upstream operating rate was 70.7%, a 1.57% increase; the inventory in Jiangsu ports was 13.93 tons, a 0.46 - ton increase. The weighted operating rate of three S was 40.60%, a 1.67% decrease; the PS operating rate was 54.50%, a 3.80% decrease; the EPS operating rate was 51.81%, a 1.96% decrease; the ABS operating rate was 71.00%, a 0.47% increase [16]. - **Strategy**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately low, and there is significant room for valuation repair. The cost - side pure benzene supply is still abundant, and the styrene production is increasing. The styrene port inventory has been accumulating, and the demand is in the off - season. It is advisable to go long on non - integrated styrene profit before the first quarter of next year [17]. Polyolefins Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6461 yuan/ton, an 8 - yuan increase; the spot price was 6365 yuan/ton, a 25 - yuan increase; the basis was - 96 yuan/ton, a 17 - yuan strengthening. The upstream operating rate was 82.66%, a 0.05% increase. The production enterprise inventory was 45.86 tons, a 2.92 - ton decrease; the trader inventory was 3.25 tons, a 0.32 - ton decrease. The downstream average operating rate was 42%, a 0.45% decrease. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 35 yuan/ton, a 3 - yuan reduction [19]. - **Strategy**: OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in the first quarter of 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed out. The spot price of polyethylene has increased, and the inventory is expected to decline from a high level. It is advisable to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread at low prices [20]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6321 yuan/ton, a 47 - yuan increase; the spot price was 6275 yuan/ton, a 25 - yuan increase; the basis was - 46 yuan/ton, a 22 - yuan weakening. The upstream operating rate was 76.92%, a 0.32% decrease. The production enterprise inventory was 53.33 tons, a 0.45 - ton decrease; the trader inventory was 18.72 tons, a 1.11 - ton decrease; the port inventory was 6.87 tons, a 0.12 - ton increase. The downstream average operating rate was 53.8%, a 0.19% decrease. The LL - PP spread was 140 yuan/ton, a 39 - yuan reduction [21]. - **Strategy**: The EIA monthly report predicts an increase in global oil inventories and a potential expansion of the supply surplus. The supply pressure will ease in the first half of 2026, and the demand is in a seasonal oscillation. With high inventory pressure, the price may bottom out in the first quarter of next year [22]. PX, PTA, and Ethylene Glycol PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract decreased by 286 yuan, at 7270 yuan; the PX CFR decreased by 28 dollars, at 891 dollars; the basis was - 47 yuan (+56), and the 3 - 5 spread was - 26 yuan (- 26). The Chinese PX load was 88.2%, a 0.1% increase; the Asian load was 79.5%, a 0.6% increase. Some domestic and overseas plants had operations such as shutdown and restart. In December, South Korea's PX exports to China increased. The inventory at the end of October increased [24]. - **Strategy**: The PX load remains high, and the downstream PTA has many maintenance plans. It is expected to accumulate inventory slightly before the maintenance season. The valuation has increased significantly, and both PX and PTA are expected to have strong supply - demand in the coming year. It is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of going long at low prices in the medium term while being aware of the callback risk [25]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract decreased by 158 yuan, at 5122 yuan; the East China spot price decreased by 110 yuan, at 5065 yuan; the basis was - 63 yuan (+2), and the 5 - 9 spread was 110 yuan (- 20). The PTA load was 72.5%, a 0.7% decrease. Some plants had operations such as restart and production reduction. The downstream load was 90.4%, a 0.7% decrease. The social inventory on December 26 decreased. The spot processing fee and the disk processing fee increased [26][27]. - **Strategy**: The supply will maintain high - level maintenance in the short term, and the demand will decline due to profit pressure and the off - season. It is expected to enter the inventory - building stage during the Spring Festival after short - term inventory reduction. The valuation has room to increase in the coming year, but attention should be paid to the callback risk in the short term. It is advisable to go long at low prices in the medium term [28]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract decreased by 29 yuan, at 3817 yuan; the East China spot price increased by 21 yuan, at 3687 yuan; the basis was - 136 yuan (+16), and the 5 - 9 spread was - 71 yuan (+2). The ethylene glycol load was 73.3%, a 1.4% increase. Some domestic and overseas plants had operations such as load reduction and restart. The downstream load was 90.4%, a 0.7% decrease. The import forecast was 11.8 tons, and the port inventory increased by 1.4 tons. The profits of different production methods varied, and the cost of ethylene was stable while the price of coal decreased [29]. - **Strategy**: The industry has a high overall load, and the port inventory - building cycle will continue. Although the overseas unexpected maintenance has increased, the domestic reduction is insufficient. The valuation is moderately low year - on - year, and the valuation may need to be compressed without further domestic production cuts in the medium term [30].