Key Points of the Research Report Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report provides short - term evaluations of various commodities including metals, energy, agricultural products, and financial products, with expectations of price trends such as oscillation, weakening, or strengthening based on their respective fundamentals and market conditions [1][3][4] Summary by Commodity Metals - **螺纹钢 (Rebar)**: Fundamentals continue to improve, but inventory is still relatively high year - on - year. With the approaching end of the peak season, demand expectations are cautious. After a short - term macro sentiment cools, the futures price is expected to be under pressure. However, there is cost support and potential policy benefits, so there is a rebound drive after a weak adjustment [1] - **黄金 (Gold)**: There are differences in the Fed's decision on another interest rate cut, increasing market volatility. Although the US government shutdown has reduced the risk - aversion sentiment, the buying power of gold remains strong. In the short term, the downside space is limited, and it may oscillate at a high level in the medium term [1] - **焦煤 (Coking Coal)**: Supply is affected by frequent inspections, mine production cuts, and other factors, with limited increase. Demand remains stable, and the upstream coal mines have reduced their inventories to a low level in recent years. The coking coal spot market is stable and slightly strong, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [3] - **铁矿石 (Iron Ore)**: Supply has short - term disturbances, and demand has decreased significantly due to environmental protection and profit factors. The fundamentals have slightly weakened, but the overall pressure is not obvious. After the macro factors are realized, the market may turn to fundamental trading, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [4] - **白银 (Silver)**: Positive information from China - US talks and the better - than - expected economic recovery in the Eurozone have increased risk appetite and boosted silver. It is expected to oscillate upwards with limited downside space [7] Agricultural Products - **生猪 (Live Pigs)**: In early November, the market supply of pigs is becoming more abundant, and the enthusiasm for second - fattening has weakened. Terminal consumption has not been significantly boosted. The price of live pigs is expected to decline slowly, and the main contract LH2601 is under short - term downward pressure [5] - **菜粕 (Rapeseed Meal)**: Supply is rigidly short, and coastal oil mills have low inventories, reducing the risk of price decline. The domestic rapeseed crushing has basically stagnated, and the oil mill operating rate is low. It is recommended to buy at low prices [6] - **棕榈油 (Palm Oil)**: Affected by rapeseed oil, the futures price has broken through the previous low. Although domestic spot demand has been released, terminal consumption has not improved, and future arrivals are expected to be large. The price is expected to continue to oscillate weakly in the short term [6][7] Energy - **原油 (Crude Oil)**: OPEC + will continue to increase production in December, and the market will be under pressure for the rest of the year. The oversupply pressure will be slightly relieved in the first quarter of next year. It should be treated with a weak - oscillation view [11] - **沥青 (Bitumen)**: The capacity utilization rate has increased, the cost support has weakened, and the peak - season demand is not strong, increasing the downward pressure. The overall trend is weak - oscillation [12] Financial Products - **长期国债 (Long - term Treasury Bonds)**: The PMI data shows increased economic downward pressure, and counter - cyclical adjustment needs to be intensified. The open - market trading of treasury bonds is likely to lower interest rates, which is a positive factor for the bond market. Due to liquidity easing and the stock - bond seesaw effect, the bond market is expected to oscillate slightly upwards in the medium term [7] Chemicals - **甲醇 (Methanol)**: Domestic methanol production is at a high level, downstream demand is stable, and port inventories fluctuate slightly. The inland market is weak, and the port basis is weak. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, with resistance at 2210 [8] - **纯碱 (Soda Ash)**: The float glass industry is stable with decreasing inventory. The domestic soda ash market is stable, with high - level supply and low - level demand. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, with resistance at 1240 [9] - **聚丙烯 (Polypropylene)**: Supply pressure has been slightly relieved due to concentrated equipment maintenance, and commercial inventories have decreased. Demand has slightly increased, but the market trading atmosphere has slowed down. The cost support is strong. The PP 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, with resistance at 6620 [10] Rubber - **橡胶 (Rubber)**: In November, the overall shipment pressure remains high, and some enterprises have plans to reduce production or conduct maintenance, which will limit the increase in capacity utilization. However, China's rubber inventories have continued to decline, providing medium - term support. The downward space of rubber prices may be limited [13]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In September, the price index remained under pressure, with CPI and PPI year-on-year in negative territory for two consecutive months. The CPI was mainly dragged down by food and energy prices, while the core CPI continued to grow steadily. The year-on-year decline of PPI narrowed for two consecutive months, and the month-on-month remained flat [1]. - In the fourth quarter, the economic downward pressure may increase, and the possibility of using policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in the future rises. Attention should be paid to the continuity of incremental policies and signals of price level improvement [1]. - The bond market's performance in September deviated from the capital and economic fundamentals. The current bond market has prominent allocation value, and bond yields may fluctuate downward. The report is bullish on the bond market in October [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs CPI Analysis - In September, the CPI was -0.3% year-on-year, up 0.1 pct from the previous month, and +0.1% month-on-month, up 0.1 pct from the previous month. The core CPI year-on-year increase expanded to 1.0% for five consecutive months, possibly affected by consumption promotion policies and the rise in gold prices [1]. - Food prices have been negative year-on-year for eight consecutive months. In September 2025, food prices decreased by 4.4% year-on-year, dragging down the CPI year-on-year by about -0.77 pct. Non-food prices increased by 0.7% year-on-year, with the increase expanding for four consecutive months [1]. - In Q4, food price declines may ease due to the low base last year, service prices may maintain steady growth, and the performance of household goods and services prices may continue to be excellent [1]. PPI Analysis - In September, the year-on-year decline of PPI narrowed to 2.3%, up 0.6 pct from the previous month, and the month-on-month remained flat. The narrowing of the year-on-year decline was mainly due to the improvement in the prices of some domestic energy and raw material industries and the influence of international commodity price fluctuations [1]. - Policy-driven market environment improvement and industrial upgrading are the core supports for PPI stabilization, but the policy effect is weakening marginally. In Q4, the year-on-year decline of production material prices may continue to narrow, but it is difficult to turn positive year-on-year [1]. Economic Outlook - In the fourth quarter, the economy may face downward pressure. Consumption and exports may be under pressure, and the external environment is complex. The possibility of using policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in the future increases [1]. Bond Market Outlook - The bond market's performance in September deviated from the capital and economic fundamentals. The current bond market has prominent allocation value, and bond yields may fluctuate downward. The report is bullish on the bond market in October [1]. - It is predicted that the 10Y Treasury bond yield will return to around 1.65% this year, the 30Y Treasury bond to 1.9%, and the 5Y large bank secondary capital bond to 1.9% [1].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index experienced a fluctuation and consolidation this week, with trading volume consistently above 2 trillion, indicating active trading sentiment. The index fell by 1.30%, while the Shenzhen Component rose by 1.14%, the ChiNext Index increased by 2.34%, and the STAR Market 50 Index rose by 1.84. The North Exchange 50 Index decreased by 1.43% [1][3][8]. Economic Analysis - Economic data for August shows a continued weakening trend, with various indicators reflecting a slowdown. The industrial added value for August grew by 5.2% year-on-year, a slight decline of 0.5 percentage points from the previous value. Fixed asset investment from January to August increased by only 0.5% year-on-year, down 1.1 percentage points from the previous value [9][10]. - The fiscal revenue for August was 1.24 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 2.03%, but down 0.62 percentage points from the previous month. Tax revenue was 1.02 trillion, up 3.39% year-on-year, but also down 1.61 percentage points from the previous month. Non-tax revenue fell to 220.7 billion, marking a 3.79% decline, continuing a four-month streak of negative growth [10][11]. Federal Reserve Impact - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25%, aligning with market expectations. The Fed's decision is seen as a neutral signal, with expectations of two more rate cuts within the year. This move creates external space for monetary easing in China [3][11][14]. Sector Recommendations - It is recommended to focus on sectors such as public utilities, finance, electric equipment, non-ferrous metals, and TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) [4][15]. Stock Performance Tracking - The report includes a tracking of potential stocks for the month, highlighting companies like Xinhua Insurance, which closed at 45.05 with a maximum increase of 5.92%, and Xiamen Tungsten, which closed at 20.30 with a maximum increase of 3.48% [22][23]. Conclusion - Overall, the market is expected to continue its oscillating upward trend in the short term, despite the high-level fluctuations. The ongoing economic pressures and the need for policy support suggest a cautious but optimistic outlook for the capital market [3][14].

Economic Overview - The Chinese economy has shown signs of slowing down, with macroeconomic data indicating a continuous decline in growth rates for three consecutive months[1] - The Politburo meeting in July emphasized the need for timely policy support, suggesting an increased likelihood of policy intervention[1] Financial Data - In July, the social financing growth rate was 9.0%, and M2 growth was 8.8%, both reaching recent peaks; however, new credit showed a rare negative growth[4] - The decline in government bond issuance in the second half of the year is expected to exert further downward pressure on social financing growth[4] Real Economy Data - Investment growth slowed from 3.7% to 0.5%, with real estate investment growth hitting a record low of 12.9% in August, potentially falling below 9 trillion yuan[4] - Retail sales growth decreased from 6.4% to 3.4%, while industrial value-added growth fell to 5.2%, indicating a broader economic slowdown[4] Price Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) unexpectedly dropped to -0.4% in August, reflecting a significant weakening in demand[4] - The overall economic situation suggests both growth and price levels face downward risks[4] Policy Recommendations - The report suggests that policy support should focus on areas where execution has been below expectations, such as infrastructure investment, which grew only 2.0% in the first eight months[4] - New policies aimed at boosting consumption and stabilizing the real estate market are urgently needed to counteract the current economic challenges[4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report is bullish on the bond market, expecting the 10Y Treasury yield to range from 1.6% - 1.8% in the second half of the year [3] Core Viewpoints - Economic data in July and August 2025 were under pressure, and the overall economic growth rate in Q3 may slow down. The possibility of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in the second half of the year has increased [2][3] - The report maintains a bullish stance on the bond market, believing that factors such as increased economic downward pressure, loose liquidity, bank self - investment demand, potential central bank bond purchases, and possible reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts will support the decline of bond yields [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Consumption - In August, the growth rate of consumption continued to decline. The total retail sales of consumer goods in August was 4.0 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%, 0.3 percentage points lower than the previous month, and has declined for three consecutive months. From January to August, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.6% year - on - year, 0.2 percentage points lower than from January to July [2] - Service consumption and online consumption were prominent. The service retail sales continued to grow rapidly, and the online consumption continued to accelerate. In 2025, the total box office of the summer movie season was 11.97 billion yuan, and the number of movie - goers was 320 million, with year - on - year increases of 2.76% and 12.75% respectively. In August, the catering revenue increased by 2.1% year - on - year, 1.0 percentage points higher than in July. From January to August, the online retail sales increased by 9.6% year - on - year, 0.4 percentage points faster than the previous value [2] - Categories related to national subsidies maintained high growth, but most growth rates slowed down. In August, the retail sales of household appliances and audio - visual equipment, furniture, and communication equipment of enterprises above the designated size increased by 14.3%, 18.6%, and 7.3% year - on - year respectively, 14.4, 2.0, and 7.6 percentage points lower than the previous month [2] Fixed - Asset Investment - Fixed - asset investment has weakened for five consecutive months. From January to August, fixed - asset investment increased by 0.5% year - on - year, and the year - on - year growth rate has decreased significantly for three consecutive months, with decreases of 0.9, 1.2, and 1.1 percentage points in the past three months [2] - In terms of sub - items, from January to August, infrastructure investment, manufacturing investment, and real estate development investment increased by 2.0%, 5.1%, and - 12.9% year - on - year respectively, all at their lowest levels since 2022, 1.2, 1.1, and 0.9 percentage points lower than from January to July [2] - Private investment has been negative for three consecutive months on a cumulative year - on - year basis, and the year - on - year decline in January - August widened to - 2.3% [2] Import and Export - The year - on - year growth rate of imports and exports declined periodically. In the first eight months, the total value of China's goods trade imports and exports increased by 3.5% year - on - year. Among them, exports increased by 6.9% year - on - year, and imports decreased by 1.2% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.4 percentage points compared with the first seven months [2] - In August, the total value of China's goods trade imports and exports was 3.9 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%, 3.2 percentage points lower than the previous month. Among them, exports increased by 4.8% year - on - year, 3.2 percentage points lower than the previous month; imports increased by 1.7% year - on - year, 3.1 percentage points lower than the previous month [2] - The decline in August data was mainly due to the decline in the year - on - year growth rate of exports to the US and Africa. The foreign trade diversification strategy continued. From January to August, the year - on - year growth of China's imports and exports to ASEAN and the EU continued to expand, increasing by 9.7% and 4.3% respectively, 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points higher than from January to July [2] Industrial Added Value - The year - on - year growth rate of the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size weakened slightly. From January to August, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 6.2% year - on - year, 0.1 percentage points lower than from January to July, and 0.4 percentage points higher than the same period last year [2] - In August, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 5.2% year - on - year, 0.5 percentage points lower than in July, and 0.7 percentage points higher than in August last year. Among them, the added value of the manufacturing industry increased by 5.7% year - on - year, the mining industry increased by 5.1% year - on - year, and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water increased by 2.4% year - on - year, 0.5, 0.1, and 0.9 percentage points lower than the previous month respectively [2] Economic Outlook and Bond Market - The economic downward pressure may increase in the second half of the year. The economic data in July and August were generally lower than expected. The manufacturing PMI remained below the boom - bust line, indicating growth pressure. There may be a transformation of economic growth momentum and adjustment of income distribution structure [3] - The report is bullish on the bond market, believing that factors such as increased economic downward pressure, loose liquidity, bank self - investment demand, potential central bank bond purchases, and possible reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts will support the decline of bond yields [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Report's Core View - In August, the price index was under marginal pressure, with both CPI and PPI year-on-year in the negative range. The year-on-year decline of CPI was 0.4%, and the month-on-month was flat. The year-on-year decline of PPI narrowed to 2.9%, and the month-on-month turned from decline to flat [1]. - The year-on-year pressure on CPI and flat month-on-month may be affected by the seasonal weakness of food prices and high base. In the future, food prices in September may continue to be under pressure due to high base, while service prices may continue to recover in the second half of the year [1]. - The year-on-year decline of PPI narrowed for the first time in six months. The month-on-month turn to flat was mainly affected by policy-driven supply-demand improvement and imported factors. In the future, the prices of production materials in September may continue to pick up, while the stabilization of living materials may depend on the repair of food PPI [1]. - The downward pressure on the economy may increase in the second half of the year. In August, the year-on-year growth rate of prices was lower than expected, and the manufacturing PMI continued to be below the boom-bust line, indicating growth pressure. Consumption and exports may face certain pressure in the second half of the year [1]. - The short-term bond market may be suppressed by sentiment, and the bond market is bullish in September. It is believed that the downward pressure on the economy may increase in the second half of the year, the capital side will continue to be loose, the central bank may restart Treasury bond purchases, and the self-operated allocation demand of banks will support the decline of bond market interest rates [1]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content CPI Situation - In August 2025, CPI year-on-year decreased by 0.4%, month-on-month was flat, both down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The year-on-year increase of core CPI continued to expand to 0.9% for the fourth consecutive month, reflecting the improvement trend of domestic demand [1]. - The year-on-year decline of CPI food prices has been negative for seven consecutive months. In August 2025, it decreased by 4.3% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 2.7 percentage points from the previous month. Food and tobacco had a drag of about -0.74 percentage points on CPI year-on-year. Non-food prices increased by 0.5% year-on-year, with the increase expanding for three consecutive months, mainly driven by industrial consumer goods and service items [1]. - Looking forward, food prices in September may continue to be under pressure due to high base. With relevant policies, service prices may continue to recover in the second half of the year [1]. PPI Situation - In August 2025, the year-on-year decline of PPI narrowed to 2.9%, the first narrowing since February this year, up 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, and the month-on-month turned from decline to flat, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, ending the continuous decline for eight months [1]. - From the sub-items, the year-on-year decline of production materials narrowed, up 1.1 percentage points from July to -3.2%, and the year-on-year decline of living materials slightly expanded, down 0.1 percentage points from July to -1.7% [1]. - The month-on-month turn to flat of PPI was mainly affected by policy-driven supply-demand improvement and imported factors. In the future, the prices of production materials in September may continue to pick up, while the stabilization of living materials may depend on the repair of food PPI [1]. Economic and Bond Market Situation - In August, the year-on-year growth rate of prices was lower than expected, and the manufacturing PMI continued to be below the boom-bust line, indicating growth pressure. Consumption and exports may face certain pressure in the second half of the year [1]. - The short-term bond market may be suppressed by sentiment, and the bond market is bullish in September. It is expected that the 10Y Treasury bond yield will be between 1.6% - 1.8% in the second half of the year, and will return to around 1.65% in the next six months [1].

Group 1: Gold Market Performance - The Shanghai gold futures price is currently at 833.82 CNY per gram, with an increase of 0.26% [1] - The opening price for the day was 834.06 CNY per gram, reaching a high of 840.82 CNY and a low of 827.26 CNY [1] Group 2: Macro News - The U.S. annual non-farm employment data has been revised down by a record 911,000, indicating a significant weakening in the U.S. economy [3] - The geopolitical risk in the Middle East has escalated following an attack on Hamas leadership in Qatar [1][3] Group 3: Institutional Views on Gold - The renewed geopolitical risks in the Middle East and the downward revision of U.S. non-farm data have increased calls for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, leading to profit-taking by gold bulls [4] - The international gold price opened at a maximum of 3,673.95 USD and closed at 3,625.04 USD per ounce, reflecting a decline of 0.3% [5] Group 4: Silver Market Performance - The silver market is experiencing overall downward pressure due to economic slowdown concerns [7] - The international silver price has fallen below 41 USD, closing at 40.857 USD per ounce, down by 1.07% [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the Invesco Great Wall Zhi Yuan Mixed A Fund (017860) reported a profit of 50.86 million yuan for the first half of 2025, with a net value growth rate of 8.66% [2] - As of September 3, 2025, the fund's unit net value was 0.823 yuan, and the fund manager, Han Wenqiang, has managed four funds that have all yielded positive returns over the past year [2][5] - The fund's one-year compounded unit net value growth rate reached 44.81%, the highest among its peers, while the lowest was 18.14% for another fund managed by the same manager [2][5] Group 2 - The fund's weighted average price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) is approximately 24.5 times, which is lower than the peer average of 26.16 times [10] - The weighted average price-to-book ratio (LF) is about 1.34 times, compared to the peer average of 2.38 times, and the weighted average price-to-sales ratio (TTM) is around 0.65 times, against a peer average of 2.05 times [10] - From a growth perspective, the fund's weighted revenue growth rate (TTM) for the first half of 2025 was -0.06%, and the weighted net profit growth rate (TTM) was -0.07% [16] Group 3 - As of June 30, 2025, the fund's total assets amounted to 652 million yuan, with a total of 4,971 holders owning 857 million shares [31][34] - The fund's turnover rate over the last six months was approximately 147%, consistently lower than the peer average [37] - The fund has a high concentration of holdings, with the top ten stocks accounting for over 60% of the portfolio for nearly two years [40]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report is bullish on the bond market in September [1][2][4][10][80] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In July 2025, the profits of industrial enterprises in China showed marginal improvement, possibly related to the low base, but overall pressure remained. Manufacturing profits were the core driving force, with raw material manufacturing profits turning from decline to growth, and industries like steel and petroleum processing turning profitable, reflecting the stabilization of commodity prices and the effectiveness of supply - side reform [2][10][11][80] - The bond market may be suppressed by sentiment in the short term, but the report is consistently bullish on the bond market in September. The increasing economic downward pressure in the second half of the year, continuous central bank easing, and bank self - operated allocation demand will support the bond market. The peak of net government bond issuance this year has passed, and after September, the net issuance of government bonds may not exceed 25% of the annual plan, presenting a repair window for interest - rate bonds [2][4][10][80] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Macro News - In July 2025, the operating income of large - scale industrial enterprises increased by 0.9% year - on - year, and 2.3% from January to July. The profits of large - scale industrial enterprises decreased by 1.5% year - on - year in July, with the decline narrowing by 2.8 pct compared to June. From January to July, profits decreased by 1.7% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 pct compared to the first half of the year. Manufacturing profits increased by 6.8% year - on - year in July, accelerating by 5.4 pct compared to June [11] - On August 28, the "Opinions of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council on Promoting High - quality Urban Development" was released, proposing to systematically promote the construction of "good houses" and complete communities [13] - On August 25 (Eastern Time), US President Trump announced the dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook. Market bets on the Fed's policy easing continued to heat up, with traders expecting an over 80% probability of a rate cut in September [14] 3.2 Medium - term High - frequency Data 3.2.1 Consumption: Moderate Growth - As of August 24, the daily average retail volume of passenger car manufacturers was 60,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%, and the daily average wholesale volume was 71,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 2.0%. As of August 28, the total national movie box office revenue in the past 7 days was 976.06 million yuan, a year - on - year increase of 16.3% [15] 3.2.2 Transportation: Continued Activity - As of August 24, the container throughput of ports was 6.775 million twenty - foot equivalent units, a year - on - year increase of 14.8%. The postal express pick - up volume was 3.7 billion pieces, a year - on - year increase of 12.0%. The railway freight volume was 8.0868 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.5%, and the highway truck traffic volume was 5.5185 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 3.3% [22][23][29] 3.2.3 Operating Rates: Slight Monthly Decline but Year - on - Year Growth in the Infrastructure Chain - As of August 27, the blast furnace operating rate of major steel enterprises was 77.3%, a year - on - year increase of 2.8 pct. As of August 28, the average asphalt operating rate was 24.0%, a year - on - year increase of 1.0 pct [32] 3.2.4 Real Estate: Persistent Downturn - As of August 29, the total commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities in the past 7 days was 1.889 million square meters, a year - on - year increase of 3.7% [40] 3.2.5 Prices: Differentiated - As of August 29, the average pork wholesale price was 20.0 yuan/kg, a year - on - year decrease of 27.4% and a 2.7% decrease compared to four weeks ago. The average vegetable wholesale price was 4.9 yuan/kg, a year - on - year decrease of 19.2% and an 11.1% increase compared to four weeks ago. The average spot price of iron ore was 791.5 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 4.3% and a 0.2% increase compared to four weeks ago [45][51] 3.3 Bond and Foreign Exchange Markets: Loose Funds, Slight Differentiation in the Bond Market - On August 29, overnight Shibor was 1.33%, down 2.50 BP from August 25. The yields of 1 - year/5 - year/10 - year/30 - year government bonds were 1.37%/1.63%/1.84%/2.14% respectively, with changes of - 1.1BP/ - 0.3BP/+5.7BP/+6.0BP compared to August 22 [56][61] 3.4 Institutional Behavior: Continuous Decline in the Duration of Medium - and Long - Term Bond Funds for Interest - Rate Bonds - As of August 29, the estimated average duration of medium - and long - term interest - rate bond funds was about 5.1 years, a decrease of about 0.04 years compared to August 22. The estimated average duration of credit bond funds was about 2.8 years, a decrease of about 0.01 years compared to August 22 [76][77] 3.5 Investment Recommendations - The report is bullish on the bond market in September. The economic downward pressure in the second half of the year, central bank easing, and bank self - operated allocation demand will support the bond market. The report expects the 10Y government bond yield to be between 1.6% - 1.8% in the second half of the year, and believes that the current 10Y government bond is highly cost - effective. It is expected that the 10Y government bond yield will return to around 1.65% in the next six months, and the 5Y secondary capital bonds of national joint - stock banks will fall below 1.9%. Investors should cherish 5Y capital bonds with yields above 2% and 30Y government bonds [4][10][80]

Group 1 - A-shares continue to perform strongly with a half-day trading volume exceeding 2 trillion yuan, an increase of 571.3 billion yuan compared to the previous day, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.86% and the ChiNext Index up 2.22%, reaching a three-year high [1] - There is a strong willingness for incremental capital to enter the market, driven by substantial household savings waiting to be invested and a margin financing balance remaining above 2 trillion yuan; additionally, foreign capital has begun to flow into A-shares for the first time since October of last year [1] - The bond futures market has seen significant increases, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.8%, currently at 116.830 points, and the 10-year and 5-year contracts also showing gains [1] Group 2 - Since 2010, only fundamentally driven stock bull markets have led to bear markets in bonds, while fund-driven bull markets have not; the major stock bull markets since 2010 include a fund-driven bull market from Q4 2014 to Q1 2015, and a recovery-driven bull market in 2017 and 2020 [2] - The current stock market rally is expected to influence bond market investor expectations, but the bond market's performance will ultimately depend on economic fundamentals, with a potential decoupling from stock market trends [2] - The bond market's largest allocation force, bank proprietary investments, has seen a significant increase, with bank holdings of bonds reaching 99 trillion yuan, accounting for 52% of the total bond market [3] Group 3 - Economic downward pressure may increase in the second half of the year, with consumer subsidies potentially overstretching demand in the home appliance sector and investment growth declining significantly [4] - The central bank may consider restarting government bond purchases to stabilize issuance costs and prevent risks in the bond market, especially as government bond yields have recently risen [4] - Banks are expected to increase their bond allocations due to declining funding costs and weak credit demand, with the overall cost of interest-bearing liabilities for A-share listed banks projected to drop below 1.7% in Q4 2025 [5] Group 4 - The 30-year government bond ETF, launched in March 2024, is one of only two long-duration bond ETFs in the market, tracking the Shanghai Stock Exchange 30-year government bond index, which reflects the overall performance of corresponding maturity government bonds [6]