Core Insights - The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for July indicates a slight decline in China's manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors, reflecting economic pressures [1][2][4] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for July is reported at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating contraction [1][2] - Factors contributing to the decline include seasonal production slowdowns and extreme weather conditions such as heatwaves and floods, which have impacted market demand [4] - The production index and new orders index are at 50.5% and 49.4%, respectively, showing a decrease of 0.5 and 0.8 percentage points, while the overall production activity remains in expansion territory [4] - Despite challenges, the high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing sectors continue to show resilience, with PMIs remaining above the critical point [4] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index stands at 50.1%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, but still above the critical threshold [5] - The construction sector has experienced a slowdown due to rainy season impacts, although it remains in expansion territory with a business activity index of 50.6% [5][6] - The summer holiday effect has positively influenced service-related sectors, with indices for transportation and entertainment exceeding 60.0%, indicating robust growth [5] Economic Outlook - Analysts suggest that the July PMI fluctuations are primarily influenced by short-term factors, and the foundation for economic recovery remains solid [3] - There is an expectation for construction activities to rebound as the rainy season concludes, with infrastructure-related demands anticipated to grow in the second half of the year [6]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve officials are expected to continue implementing interest rate cuts, but are not ready to take action in the upcoming meeting [1][3] Group 1: Divergence Among Officials - Officials are divided on two main aspects: the economic evidence needed to support rate cuts and whether waiting for clarity is a mistake [3][4] - There are three camps among officials regarding the timing and necessity of rate cuts, reflecting differing judgments on the economic situation [4][5] Group 2: Evidence for Rate Cuts - Some officials focus on labor market data, suggesting rate cuts should occur only with sustained signs of weakness, such as rising unemployment and reduced job creation [4] - Others prioritize inflation data, advocating for cuts if inflation remains below target without signs of recovery [4] - A third group considers multiple economic indicators, supporting cuts only when they collectively indicate weak growth [4] Group 3: Timing and Risks of Rate Cuts - The debate on whether to wait for clearer signs reflects differing views on the timeliness of monetary policy, with some officials advocating for preemptive action to avoid deeper economic downturns [4][5] - Conversely, a cautious faction believes that premature cuts could lead to resource misallocation and inflation rebound, preferring to wait for more evidence [4][5] Group 4: Impact of Federal Reserve Decisions - The statements from Chairman Powell during the press conference will be crucial, as hints of potential rate cuts could boost market confidence and lead to positive reactions in financial markets [5] - Historical adjustments in Fed policy significantly impact global financial markets, influencing the dollar's strength and capital flows to emerging markets [5] Group 5: External Economic Factors - Global economic uncertainties, such as trade tensions and geopolitical conflicts, are also considered by Fed officials when contemplating rate cuts [6]

Core Viewpoint - The AI Fund, Invesco Great Wall Economic Preferred One-Year Holding Mixed A (017639), reported a profit of 8.96 million yuan for Q2 2025, with a net value growth rate of 6.71% for the period [2] Fund Performance - As of July 18, the fund's unit net value was 1.178 yuan, with a one-year compounded net value growth rate of 30.62%, the highest among its peers [2][3] - The fund's performance over the last three months showed a compounded net value growth rate of 14.55%, ranking 182 out of 607 comparable funds, and 10.81% over the last six months, ranking 302 out of 607 [3] Fund Management Insights - The fund manager indicated that external uncertainties are rising, and internal economic momentum requires continued fiscal and monetary policy support to boost domestic demand [2] - The report highlighted that after the export effect diminishes, external demand may weaken, impacting production and employment in export-related sectors, alongside pressures from declining housing prices affecting consumer spending [2] Fund Metrics - The fund's Sharpe ratio since inception is 0.5491, indicating a moderate risk-adjusted return [7] - The maximum drawdown since inception is 33.47%, with the largest quarterly drawdown occurring in Q1 2024 at 22.99% [9] Fund Holdings - As of Q2 2025, the fund's total assets amounted to 142 million yuan, with a historical average stock position of 86.5%, slightly above the peer average of 85.36% [12][13] - The top ten holdings include Guorui Technology, Sitaiwei, Zijin Mining, Nine Company, Jingzhida, Zhongtian Technology, Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank, Fujing Technology, Chip Source Micro, and Yun Aluminum [16]

Core Viewpoint - The fund "Invesco Great Wall XinJing Industrial Select Mixed A" reported a profit of 990,300 yuan in Q2 2025, with a net value growth rate of 1.10% for the period, indicating a moderate performance amidst external economic pressures [3][16]. Fund Performance - As of July 18, the fund's unit net value was 0.998 yuan, with a one-year net value growth rate of 18.41%, ranking 313 out of 601 comparable funds [4]. - The fund's three-month and six-month net value growth rates were 17.46% and 11.12%, ranking 116 out of 607 and 293 out of 607 respectively [4]. - The fund's average stock position since inception was 77.61%, with a peak of 88.68% in mid-2024 and a low of 25.85% at the end of 2022 [15]. Economic Outlook - The fund management anticipates a cooling of external demand, which may negatively impact production and employment in export-related sectors, alongside pressures from declining housing prices affecting consumer spending [3]. - The report suggests that the economy may face downward pressure in Q3, necessitating policy support, with fiscal policy space remaining ample for potential stimulus [3]. Fund Holdings - As of Q2 2025, the top ten holdings of the fund included Tencent Holdings, STMicroelectronics, Focus Media, China Mobile, Alibaba-W, SMIC, CATL, Anji Technology, Three Trees, and Shenghong Technology [19]. Risk Metrics - The fund's Sharpe ratio since inception is 0.2541, indicating a moderate risk-adjusted return [9]. - The maximum drawdown since inception is 32.59%, with the largest quarterly drawdown recorded at 22.9% in Q1 2024 [12].

Group 1 - The overall economic performance in China is stable with improvements in exports and consumption growth, while facing challenges from the real estate market and external uncertainties [1][2] - The real estate market remains a significant negative factor for economic performance, with sales declining over 10% year-on-year in major cities and liquidity pressures on developers [3][4][5] - Real estate investment is expected to fluctuate around -10%, contributing to a decline in nominal GDP growth by 0.75 percentage points [5][6] Group 2 - Private investment growth is weak, with a continuous decline in fixed asset investment since 2023, primarily due to the downturn in the real estate market [6][7] - Structural issues, including market access restrictions and increased regulatory scrutiny, are contributing to the low enthusiasm for private investment [6][7] - Consumer spending may face challenges due to potential resource shortages in policy support and a conservative consumption attitude among residents [7][8] Group 3 - Export performance is under pressure from U.S. tariffs and trade barriers, particularly affecting labor-intensive industries [8][9] - Domestic demand remains weak, leading to structural deflationary pressures, with CPI and PPI showing declines [10][11] - Local government finances are strained due to declining land sales and high debt repayment pressures, limiting infrastructure investment capabilities [11][12] Group 4 - Monetary policy needs to improve coordination with fiscal policy to effectively support economic growth [12][13] - There is a need for targeted measures to support the real estate sector and enhance liquidity for developers [14][15] - Increased support for private enterprises and consumer spending is essential to stimulate economic activity [16][17] Group 5 - Recommendations include expanding fiscal support for trade enterprises and enhancing capital market stability through various financial tools [20][21][22] - The government should implement measures to alleviate the financial burden on local governments and improve their investment capabilities [23][24] - A proactive monetary policy approach is necessary to address deflationary pressures and stabilize the economy [24][25]

Core Viewpoint - The divergence between the U.S. Treasury Secretary and the Federal Reserve Chairman regarding monetary policy is creating uncertainty in the dollar's performance and affecting other financial assets [1][3]. Group 1: Policy Divergence - The U.S. Treasury Secretary indicated that a rate cut by the Federal Reserve may not be delayed beyond September, citing economic pressures and the need for stimulus [3]. - In contrast, the Federal Reserve Chairman Powell emphasized a cautious approach, stating that decisions must be based on comprehensive economic assessments rather than short-term market fluctuations [3][4]. - This clear division between the U.S. government and the Federal Reserve is contributing to market confusion regarding future monetary policy directions [3][4]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The limited upward potential of the dollar is leading investors to adjust their asset allocation strategies amid policy uncertainty [4]. - Despite a minor decline in the dollar index, there are positive movements in S&P and Nasdaq futures, reflecting increased investor preference for risk assets due to expectations of future monetary easing [4]. - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains stable at 4.245%, indicating a balanced approach among bond market investors in light of policy uncertainties [4]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Technical indicators show a bearish trend for the dollar index, with moving averages declining and an expanding Bollinger Band indicating increased market volatility [4][5]. - Key support levels for the dollar index are identified at 96.37 and 94.62, while resistance levels are at 97.32 and 98.15 [5]. - These technical signals provide important references for investors in assessing the dollar index's future movements [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report covers a wide range of financial and commodity markets, including macro - strategy, black metals, non - ferrous metals, and agricultural products. Market conditions are influenced by various factors such as economic data, policy changes, and geopolitical events. For example, the US core PCE data affects gold and stock markets, and policy changes in different countries impact commodity markets [13][21][37]. - Different markets have different outlooks. Some markets are expected to be bullish in the long - term but may face short - term fluctuations, while others are expected to be bearish or remain in a range - bound state [2][21][34]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US May core PCE price index rose 2.7% year - on - year, exceeding expectations. Inflationary pressure led to a lack of short - term motivation for the Fed to cut interest rates, causing gold prices to decline on Friday. Geopolitical risks did not intensify. Short - term gold prices are expected to be weak with potential for further decline [13][14]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump's "Big and Beautiful" bill has entered a short - term deadlock. Although it is expected to pass, the US dollar index is expected to weaken in the short term due to the split within the Republican Party and the expected increase in the deficit [15][17][18]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US May core PCE price index growth was higher than expected. The market's risk appetite remains high under the support of the interest - rate cut cycle and upcoming tax - cut bills. However, the current position of US stocks does not fully account for negative factors such as tariff negotiations and economic downturn, so there is a risk of correction [19][21]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The profits of large - scale industrial enterprises in China declined in May. Treasury bond futures rose as a reaction to the weak stock market. The central bank's support for market liquidity is a key factor for the bullish view, but the market may face short - term fluctuations. Long positions can be held, and buying on dips is recommended [22][24][25]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The profits of industrial enterprises from January to May turned negative, but the stock market has been strong recently. The divergence between the market and fundamentals is increasing. If policies can promote economic recovery, the market will be more stable; otherwise, the sustainability of the market rally will be reduced. It is recommended to allocate evenly among stock indices [26][28][29]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - US coal production increased from January to May 2025. Steam coal prices strengthened, with the 5500K coal price remaining stable and low - calorie coal prices rising slightly. High - temperature weather in June improved demand, and supply was slightly affected by safety inspections. It is expected that the demand pressure will ease in July [30][31]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The air - conditioner production orders in July turned negative year - on - year. The iron ore price rebounded slightly this week. Although there is pressure on port inventories in July due to the shipping rush in June, this negative factor has been partially priced in. The overall trend is expected to be range - bound, and steel mill profits may be slightly compressed [32]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Indonesia plans to implement the B50 biodiesel plan in 2026. Palm oil production data in Malaysia shows mixed trends, and exports are expected to increase. Palm oil is expected to remain range - bound, and soybean oil is also expected to be range - bound. Attention should be paid to factors such as Indian restocking, US soybean weather, and US biofuel policies [33][34]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - A cold front caused frost in the sugar - cane producing areas of southern Brazil. The sugar - cane crushing volume in the first half of June in southern Brazil is expected to decrease by 19.3% year - on - year, and sugar production is expected to decrease by 19.9%. The international sugar market is under supply pressure, but the external market has shown signs of stabilization, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term [35][37][38]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - The drought - affected area of US cotton remained at 3% in the week ending June 24. Indian cotton planting area increased slightly. US cotton export contracts declined. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to remain in a low - level range - bound state, and attention should be paid to the USDA's actual planting area report [40][42][43]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The soybean crushing volume of oil mills was close to 2.5 million tons last week. The drought - affected area of US soybeans decreased. Imported soybean costs declined, and soybean meal is expected to continue to accumulate inventory. The price of US soybeans and soybean meal futures are expected to be supported at certain levels, and attention should be paid to US soybean planting area and inventory reports [44][46]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - South Africa imposed temporary safeguard measures on imported steel flat - rolled products. The production of white goods in July decreased year - on - year. Steel prices rebounded, but the profit margin declined. The steel market may rebound slightly in the short term but faces medium - term pressure [47][49][50]. 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The growth progress of corn in different regions varies. The spot price of corn is likely to strengthen, but significant price increases may require accelerated inventory depletion. It is recommended to wait and see for old - crop contracts and consider shorting new - crop contracts when the production situation is clearer [52]. 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The price difference between corn starch and tapioca starch narrowed. The substitution effect needs further attention. It is recommended to wait and see due to complex influencing factors [52]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Alumina) - The national alumina inventory increased slightly. The spot price remained stable, and the weighted index declined slightly. The short - term futures price is expected to be strong due to low inventory and warehouse receipts [53]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - India plans to take measures to address copper supply risks. A new copper project in Canada has released resource data. Short - term macro - expectations are volatile, and the US dollar may continue to weaken. The domestic copper inventory situation is divided. The copper market is expected to be range - bound at a high level, and caution is needed when chasing long positions [55][57]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Zhongkuang Resources plans to invest in a lithium salt production project. The short - term lithium price is expected to be slightly bullish. It is recommended to avoid short positions or shift to the LC2511 contract and look for buying opportunities on dips [58][59]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The polysilicon futures contract rebounded, possibly related to policy news. The supply is expected to be in surplus in July. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds and consider positive spreads between contracts [60][61]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - A large silicon enterprise in Xinjiang suddenly cut production. The industry's production situation is complex. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds and manage positions carefully [62][63]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - GreenMei's products are suitable for low - altitude aircraft power scenarios. Nickel prices rebounded last week. The prices of nickel ore and nickel iron are expected to be weak. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [64][65][66]. 3.2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The short - term supply and demand of lead are weak, but there is an expectation of strong supply and demand in the long - term. It is recommended to look for buying opportunities on dips and pay attention to positive spreads between contracts [68]. 3.2.17 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc spread was in contango, and the spot premium continued to decline. The zinc market may rise in the short term but faces a surplus in the medium - term. It is recommended to wait and see, protect existing short positions, and consider positive spreads between contracts [69][70]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The EUA carbon price fluctuated last week. The short - term carbon price is expected to be volatile. Attention should be paid to European weather and geopolitical situations [71][72][73]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - OPEC+ may discuss increasing production in July. The number of US oil rigs decreased. The oil price has returned to near the pre - conflict level, and the risk premium may remain in the third quarter. The oil price is expected to be range - bound [73][74][75]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The spot price of PVC powder increased, but the trading volume was low. The PVC market is expected to be range - bound in the short term [75][76]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - Bottle - chip factories' export prices were mostly stable. The industry plans to cut production in July, which will relieve supply pressure. It is recommended to look for opportunities to expand the processing margin [77][78]. 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong had minor fluctuations. The supply was limited due to enterprise maintenance, and the demand was relatively stable. The futures price rebounded, but the rebound height may be limited [79][80]. 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The spot price of imported wood pulp stabilized. The futures price rebounded slightly. The pulp market is expected to be range - bound [81][82]. 3.2.24 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - The Antwerp port was severely disrupted by strikes, causing delays for nearly 50 merchant ships. The spot freight rate is showing signs of peaking. The short - term decline of the EC2508 contract is limited, but the return on long positions is also limited [83][84][85].

Group 1 - The central bank is likely to resume purchasing government bonds next month, indicating a potential liquidity injection into the market [2][7]. - The central bank's bond purchases are equivalent to "printing money," as it increases the base currency by buying bonds from banks [3][4]. - Since August of last year, the central bank has already injected 1 trillion yuan through bond purchases over five months [5]. Group 2 - Recent actions by major state-owned banks, which have aggressively purchased short-term government bonds, signal that the central bank is preparing to inject liquidity [8]. - Despite interest rate cuts by the central bank, government bond yields have increased, raising the cost of issuing new bonds [10][11]. - The central bank's strategy to stabilize bond yields involves purchasing bonds to drive prices up, thereby lowering interest rates for the government [12][13]. Group 3 - The central bank's intention to buy bonds is supported by its May report, which indicated a readiness to act [14]. - Global trends show a potential wave of interest rate cuts, with several central banks expected to lower rates soon, reducing the hesitation for the central bank to act [16][17]. - Economic pressures, including insufficient liquidity and market stagnation, necessitate the central bank's intervention through bond purchases [20]. Group 4 - The central bank's previous reliance on short-term tools like reverse repos and medium-term lending facilities is shifting towards long-term bond purchases for more stable liquidity [22][23]. - The effectiveness of monetary easing through bond purchases may take time to reflect in the market, and the impact on inflation is uncertain [25][26]. - The current economic environment suggests that without inflationary pressures, significant price increases in investments are unlikely [28]. Group 5 - The volatility in commodity and capital markets is expected to continue due to low liquidity and unstable funding [29]. - A recommendation is made to avoid heavy investments in capital markets or commodities, focusing instead on preserving capital and seeking stable, low-volatility returns [30][31].

Group 1 - The central bank is likely to resume purchasing government bonds next month, indicating a potential liquidity injection into the market [2][7] - The central bank's bond purchases are equivalent to printing money, which increases the base currency and provides liquidity to the banking system [3][4] - Since August of last year, the central bank has already injected 1 trillion yuan through bond purchases over five months [5] Group 2 - Recent actions by major state-owned banks, which have aggressively purchased short-term government bonds, signal that the central bank is preparing to inject liquidity [8] - Despite interest rate cuts by the central bank, government bond yields have increased, indicating rising borrowing costs for the government [10][11] - The central bank's strategy to stabilize bond yields involves purchasing bonds to drive up their prices, thereby lowering the interest rates on new issuances [12][13] Group 3 - The central bank's intention to buy bonds is supported by its May report, which indicated a readiness to act [14] - Global trends show a potential wave of interest rate cuts, with many central banks, including the Swiss National Bank, expected to lower rates soon [16][17] - Economic pressures, including insufficient liquidity and market stagnation, necessitate the central bank's intervention through bond purchases [20] Group 4 - The central bank's previous reliance on short-term tools like reverse repos and medium-term lending facilities is shifting towards long-term bond purchases for more stable liquidity [22][23] - The effectiveness of monetary easing through bond purchases may take time to reflect in the market, and the impact on individual investors may be limited [25][26] - The current economic environment, characterized by global recessionary pressures, suggests that inflation is unlikely to emerge despite liquidity injections [24][28] Group 5 - The investment landscape is expected to be volatile, with a tendency for short-term trading rather than stable long-term investments [29][30] - Investors are advised to prioritize capital preservation and consider stable, low-volatility investment options, such as bank deposits or medium-term assets [31]

Core Viewpoint - The current economic development faces multiple adverse factors, with increasing uncertainty in the external trade environment and internal challenges [1] Economic Indicators - Major macroeconomic indicators have significantly weakened at the beginning of the second quarter, indicating increased downward pressure on the economy [1] Policy Recommendations - The effectiveness of previous supportive consumption policies needs further evaluation, and follow-up measures should be introduced based on actual conditions [1] - To stimulate domestic demand, it is essential to return to the income fundamentals, implementing practical measures to improve the employment environment, enhance social security, increase disposable income for residents, and improve market expectations [1]