上周一受海外市场波动影响，股指大幅调整，随后市场情绪逐步缓和，指数进入震荡整理态势。上周科创50指数领跌， 跌幅为5.76%，创业板指数跌幅为3.28%，中证500、中证1000指数分别下跌2.68%、2.46%。上证50指数跌幅最小，大盘 蓝筹板块的防御属性凸显。市场风格方面，科技成长板块跌幅较大，消费板块领涨。 1月30日，特朗普宣布提名沃什为下一任美联储主席，引发金融市场连锁反应。沃什以传统"鹰派"立场著称，且明确主 张缩减美联储资产负债表，美元流动性收紧预期升温，市场对美联储独立性的担忧缓解。上周美元指数明显回升，美股 大幅调整，主要原因在于市场担忧科技巨头高额资本开支难以有效转化为收入增长，引发资金抛售，导致美股科技板块 大幅下跌。后续市场情绪好转，资金逢低布局的意愿提升，上周五美股科技板块大幅反弹。 海外市场的剧烈波动对A股市场产生了明显冲击。上周一A股迎来大幅调整，股指期权波动率大幅攀升，尤其是中小盘 指数。叠加春节假期临近，场内资金获利了结的意愿显著增强，整体避险情绪进一步升温。市场风格显著分化，受外部 市场影响较大的科技成长板块和有色板块表现疲软，消费、金融等具备防御属性的板块韧性较强，其中 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The central bank's "structural" interest rate cut and the CSRC's work conference set a positive tone for the bond market. The central bank's move is conducive to maintaining a stable liquidity environment and alleviating credit risks, while the CSRC's policy aims to improve the quality, adjust the structure, and expand the scale of the credit - bond market, promoting its development in line with national strategies [3][12][16] - The bond market presents more structural opportunities. It is recommended to focus on medium - to high - grade, medium - to short - term bond varieties, and closely follow subsequent policies, credit risk changes, and the behavior of wealth - management funds [3] Summary by Directory Market Hotspots - The central bank cut the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points on January 15, 2026, and increased the quota of relevant tools. This operation is a "precision - drip" measure, which is expected to improve liquidity marginally, lower capital costs, and support the real economy, especially small and medium - sized enterprises and private enterprises. It has a positive impact on the short - end of the interest - rate bond and helps maintain the stability of medium - to high - grade credit spreads [10][11][12] - The CSRC held a system - wide work conference on January 15, 2026, proposing to "improve the quality, adjust the structure, and expand the scale" of the bond market. It will optimize the supply structure of the credit - bond market, strengthen risk prevention, and promote the development of the commercial real estate REITs pilot, which is expected to enhance the bond market's service to the real economy and national strategies [14][15][16] Macroeconomic Data - In 2025, China's GDP reached 140.19 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5% at constant prices, achieving the annual target. The economic growth momentum showed a "high - in - the - front, low - in - the - back" trend. Consumption maintained growth with the retail sales of consumer goods reaching 50.12 trillion yuan, a 3.7% increase. The investment side was under pressure with a 3.8% year - on - year decline in fixed - asset investment, while the production side remained resilient with the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size growing by 5.9% year - on - year [4][18] Money Market - Last week, the central bank net injected 111.28 billion yuan through open - market operations. However, due to approaching tax - payment periods, a strong start to credit, and the maturity of high - interest time deposits, most capital prices rose. Except for a 3bp decline in DR007, the pledged - repo rates for other tenors increased by 2bp - 11bp. The 3 - month and 1 - year Shibor remained stable, and the spread between them was basically the same as the previous week [5][21] Primary Market of Credit Bonds - Last week, credit - bond issuance cooled slightly. The issuance scale was 259.401 billion yuan, and the average daily issuance was 51.88 billion yuan. By bond type, the issuance scales of different bonds varied. By industry, the infrastructure investment and financing industry's issuance scale decreased by 47.663 billion yuan to 83.845 billion yuan, with a net outflow of 38.154 billion yuan; the industrial bond issuance scale increased by 25.302 billion yuan to 152.917 billion yuan, and most industries had net inflows. The issuance costs of most credit bonds decreased by 2bp - 36bp, except for the 3 - year AA+ bonds, whose issuance cost rose by 14bp [6][24][25] Secondary Market of Credit Bonds - Last week, the secondary - market cash - bond trading volume was 9.054899 trillion yuan, with the average daily trading volume increasing by 6.5887 billion yuan to 181.098 billion yuan, indicating active trading. Affected by the correction of the equity market, large - scale net injections in the open market, and expectations of reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest - rate cuts, the bond - market sentiment improved. The yields of interest - rate bonds and credit bonds generally declined, with the 10 - year Treasury yield dropping 4bp to 1.84%. Most credit spreads widened, and most rating spreads narrowed [7][34][38] Appendix - There were multiple credit - risk events in the bond market in 2025, including principal and interest extensions and defaults of bonds issued by real - estate companies, financial institutions, etc. [47] - There were several regulatory and market innovation dynamics in 2025, such as tax - exemption policies for overseas institutional investors in the domestic bond market, the release of business guidelines by the Shanghai Stock Exchange, the launch of the ICBC - CCDC Panda Bond Index series, and the optimization of the M&A note mechanism by the NAFMII [48][50] - The monthly net financing amounts of major credit - bond types in 2024 - 2025 were provided, showing significant fluctuations [50]

——26年信贷市场工作会议召开，监管体系持续完善 证券分析师 袁喆奇S1060520080003（证券投资咨询） 李冰婷S1060520040002（证券投资咨询） 许 淼S1060525020001（证券投资咨询） 研究助理 李灵琇S1060124070021（一般证券业务） 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 2026年2月9日 1 证券研究报告 金融行业周报 重点聚焦 行业数据 • 2026年信贷市场工作会议召开，明确信贷资源重点流向 • 明确RWA监管框架，强化虚拟资产风险管理 • 国家金融监督管理总局发布《银行保险机构许可证管理办法》 • 本周银行、证券、保险、金融科技指数分别变动+1.70%、-0.65%、-0.71%、-0.57% • 银行：公开市场操作实现净回笼7560亿元，SHIBOR利率回落 • 证券：周度股基日均成交3.2万亿元 • 保险：十年期国债到期收益率环比上周下行0.10bps 核心观点 26年信贷市场工作会议召开，监管体系持续完善 1、2026年信贷市场工作会议召开，明确信贷资源重点流向。1月30日，中国人民银行召开2026年信贷市场工作会议，总结2025年工作，部署 落实结构性货币政策 ...

证券研究报告 金融 交投回落，战略加配优质金融 华泰研究 2026 年 2 月 08 日│中国内地 行业周报（第六周） 投资机会方面证券>保险>银行。市场波动加大，上周 A 股日均成交额 2.4 万亿元，周环比-21%；融资余额连续 6 个交易日下滑。央行等八部门发布 《关于进一步防范和处置虚拟货币等相关风险的通知》，禁止在境内开展现 实世界资产代币化活动，并严格监管境内主体赴境外开展相关业务活动。年 初至今保险板块中的弹性组合表现优于稳健组合，显示市场在交易保险股的 β属性。央行信贷市场工作会议提出要落实好结构性货币政策工具增量政 策，加强与财政政策协同。齐鲁银行披露业绩快报，营收增速较前三季度提 升，利润保持同比高增，资产质量持续优化。 子行业观点 1）证券：上周 A 股日均成交额 2.4 万亿元，周环比-21%；融资余额连续 6 个交易日下滑。前期涨幅较高的资产明显回落，市场风格切换，看好券商板 块高性价比机会。2）保险：在市场波动率加大的背景下，投资者可能需要 降低风险偏好，关注稳健标的。3）银行：央行信贷市场工作会议提出要落 实好结构性货币政策工具增量政策，加强与财政政策协同。齐鲁银行披露业 绩快报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report suggests that the liquidity crisis is intensifying market volatility, which will accelerate the repricing of major asset classes. Global equities and commodities may still present performance opportunities, recommending an overweight in AH shares, US stocks, crude oil, and industrial commodities for February [1]. Group 1: Strategic Asset Allocation (SAA) and Tactical Asset Allocation (TAA) - The "all-weather" asset allocation framework consists of SAA, TAA, and adjustments based on significant events, providing a comprehensive guide for investment decisions. SAA diversifies macro risks and sets long-term allocation benchmarks for portfolio stability, while TAA identifies short-term risk-return characteristics to adjust portfolio weights for enhanced returns [1]. - The report emphasizes that the liquidity crisis will lead to accelerated repricing of major asset classes, with global equities and commodities likely to perform well despite unchanged fundamental pricing factors [1]. Group 2: Equity Allocation Recommendations - For February 2026, the recommended equity allocation weight is 47.50%, with overweight positions in A-shares (10.00%), Hong Kong stocks (10.00%), and US stocks (17.50%). European and Japanese stocks are set at standard weights of 5.00% each [2]. - Multiple factors support the performance of Chinese equities, suggesting an overweight in A/H shares due to an expected expansion of the fiscal deficit and more aggressive economic policies. The anticipated interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve and the stable appreciation of the RMB provide favorable conditions for monetary easing in China [2]. - The report indicates that the "Goldilocks" scenario is emerging, which is beneficial for US stock performance, as the US economy shows resilience despite marginal cooling, with corporate earnings expectations likely to support upward movement in US stock indices [2]. Group 3: Bond Allocation Recommendations - The recommended bond allocation weight for February 2026 is 35.00%, with allocations to long-term (7.50%) and short-term (10.00%) government bonds, as well as long-term (7.50%) and short-term (10.00%) US Treasury bonds [3]. - Structural monetary policies are expected to strengthen the allocation towards government bonds, as the imbalance between financing demand and credit supply remains a reality. The trend of rising risk appetite may lead to a rebalancing of asset allocations by households and enterprises [3]. - The report notes that while the US economy is converging, it is not in a downturn, with a moderate cooling labor market and declining energy prices contributing to lower inflationary pressures. However, geopolitical tensions and the US government's actions may weaken the creditworthiness of US Treasuries [3]. Group 4: Commodity Allocation Recommendations - The recommended commodity allocation weight for February 2026 is 12.50%, with standard allocations to gold (5.00%) and overweight positions in crude oil (3.75%) and industrial commodities (3.75%) [4]. - The report suggests an overweight in crude oil due to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which may provide temporary support for oil prices despite weak global demand [4]. - Industrial commodities are expected to benefit from revised demand forecasts and sustained trading momentum, with copper experiencing supply-demand imbalances driven by construction, electric grid modernization, and electric vehicle demand [4].

【环球网财经综合报道】为维护春节前银行体系流动性合理充裕，中国人民银行加大了公开市场操作力 度。2月5日，央行重启暂停已久的14天期逆回购操作，并配合7天期逆回购及买断式逆回购等工具，打 出了一套"组合拳"，以平滑春节前后资金面波动。 重启 14 天逆回购，单日净投放 645 亿元 多工具联动，强化流动性管理 除了常规逆回购，央行此前一天还加量续作了3个月期买断式逆回购。2月4日，央行开展8000亿元买断 式逆回购操作，净投放1000亿元，这是四个月以来该品种首次加量续作。交易员表示，买断式逆回购的 净投放显示了央行呵护态度未变，短期内流动性无需过度担忧。 回顾2026年1月，央行通过MLF净投放7000亿元，国债买卖净投放1000亿元等多种手段，保持了流动性 的合理充裕。此外，中国人民银行近日召开的2026年信贷市场工作会议也强调，要落实好结构性货币政 策工具增量政策，加强对重大战略、重点领域和薄弱环节的优质金融服务，大力发展科技金融、绿色金 融、普惠金融、养老金融、数字金融。 市场层面，近期关于"类ONRRP"等非银流动性新工具的讨论升温。中信证券研报表示，鉴于降准成本 低于扩表类工具，在净息差收窄及预计 ...

近日，中国人民银行召开2026年信贷市场工作会议。会议总结2025年信贷市场工作，分析当 前形势，部署2026年工作。分管信贷市场司的中国人民银行党委委员、副行长朱鹤新出席会议 并讲话。 中欧国际工商学院教授、中国首席经济学家论坛研究院院长盛松成解读称，我国经济发展中老 问题、新挑战仍然不少，更需要结构性政策发挥作用。一方面，财政政策可以直接介入经济活 动，以促进经济的结构调整；另一方面，结构性货币政策通过加大对商业银行的激励力度，也 有助于增强财政政策落地效能，发挥政策集成作用，激发经济内生增长动力。 记者丨 唐婧 编辑丨肖嘉 备受关注的是，1月20日，财政部网站连续发布5项政策文件，对个人消费贷款、设备更新贷 款、中小微企业贷款、服务业经营主体贷款贴息政策以及民间投资专项担保计划进行优化实施 与部署，旨在加力提振消费、扩大内需、降低融资成本、激发民间投资活力。 强化消费领域金融支持 除了金融"五篇大文章"，强化消费领域金融支持也是2026年信贷市场工作的重点之一。我国有 14亿多人口，是全球最大、最具潜力的消费市场之一，但是居民消费率相对偏低，居民消费不 足已经成为制约内需持续扩大的重要原因。 会议明确， ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced fluctuations before rising, with Wind All A Index increasing by 0.45% and a trading volume of 2.5 trillion yuan [10] - The cyclical sectors showed strong performance, while the CSI 1000 Index fell by 0.02%, the CSI 500 Index rose by 0.15%, the CSI 300 Index increased by 0.83%, and the SSE 50 Index rose by 1.14% [10] Economic Policies - Recent economic adjustment policies have been introduced, providing fundamental support for the indices [10] - The National Development and Reform Commission announced plans to establish a national-level merger fund, regulate local economic promotion behaviors, and advance significant high-tech projects during the 14th Five-Year Plan [10] Monetary Policy - The central bank lowered various structural monetary policy tool rates by 25 basis points, aiming to support specific financing needs in sectors like technological innovation and carbon reduction [10] - This rate cut is expected to guide funds into relevant sectors, boosting valuations and reducing financing costs in the long term [10] Market Sentiment - The Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges announced an increase in the minimum margin ratio for margin trading from 80% to 100%, indicating a rise in risk-averse sentiment among investors [10] - The market is currently in a high-level fluctuation mode, with increased short-term volatility, suggesting a cautious approach is advisable [10] Bond Market - On Wednesday, government bond futures closed with the 30-year main contract down by 0.23%, the 10-year down by 0.01%, the 5-year down by 0.04%, and the 2-year down by 0.02% [11] - The central bank conducted a 750 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a bid rate of 1.4%, maintaining the same rate as the previous operation [11] Precious Metals - Overnight, London spot gold and silver experienced a pullback, while platinum and palladium showed slight increases [12] - The gold-silver ratio slightly decreased to around 56, and the platinum-palladium price difference rose to approximately 491 USD/ounce [12] - The U.S. ISM services PMI for January was reported at 53.8, matching the highest level since October 2024, but new orders showed signs of slowing down [12]

21世纪经济报道记者唐婧 近日，中国人民银行召开2026年信贷市场工作会议。会议总结2025年信贷市场工作，分析当前形势，部 署2026年工作。分管信贷市场司的中国人民银行党委委员、副行长朱鹤新出席会议并讲话。 会议明确，进一步完善金融"五篇大文章"各项机制，落实好结构性货币政策工具增量政策，加强与财政 政策协同，大力发展科技金融、绿色金融、普惠金融、养老金融、数字金融，强化消费领域金融支持。 建设多层次金融服务体系，着力支持扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业等重点领域。 一位地方监管人士告诉记者，本次会议的一大关注点是"落实好结构性货币政策工具增量政策，加强与 财政政策协同，"这与此前央行加大结构性货币政策工具支持力度，进一步助力经济结构转型优化的表 态高度一致。 1月15日，中国人民银行新闻发言人、副行长邹澜在国新办新闻发布会上宣布下调各类结构性货币政策 工具利率0.25个百分点，增加支农支小再贷款额度5000亿元，将科技创新和技术改造再贷款额度增至1.2 万亿元等八项政策措施，进一步加大结构性货币政策工具支持力度。 在被问及"货币政策下一步考虑"时，邹澜明确表示，发挥好货币政策总量和结构双重功能，加快落地近 ...

智通财经APP获悉，2026年1月30日，中国人民银行召开2026年信贷市场工作会议。会议要求，进一步 完善金融"五篇大文章"各项机制，落实好结构性货币政策工具增量政策，加强与财政政策协同，大力发 展科技金融、绿色金融、普惠金融、养老金融、数字金融，强化消费领域金融支持。建设多层次金融服 务体系，着力支持扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业等重点领域。继续做好金融支持融资平台债务风险 化解工作，支持地方政府持续推进融资平台市场化转型，引导金融机构按照市场化、法治化原则做好服 务。 原文如下： 会议认为，2025年中国人民银行扎实推进金融"五篇大文章"、金融支持扩消费、地方政府融资平台债务 风险化解等各项工作，取得积极成效。金融"五篇大文章"各项工作机制更加顺畅，融资平台债务风险大 幅缓释，金融支持实体经济高质量发展质效持续提升。 会议要求，做好2026年信贷市场工作要准确把握"十五五"时期经济金融形势变化，统筹发展和安全，不 断加强对重大战略、重点领域和薄弱环节的优质金融服务。进一步完善金融"五篇大文章"各项机制，落 实好结构性货币政策工具增量政策，加强与财政政策协同，大力发展科技金融、绿色金融、普惠金融、 养老金 ...