美国财政部的一位高级官员当地时间周三晚间表示，已持续两周的联邦政府停摆每周基准下可能令美国经济损失高达150亿美元的经济产出，此举更正了此 前不久美国财政部长斯科特.贝森特(Scott Bessent)早些时候给出的错误说法——他此前称损失高达每天150亿美元。 联邦政府停摆开始切入"美国经济的肌肉" 贝森特在新闻发布会上表示，政府停摆已开始"切入"美国经济的"最强壮肌肉部分"。贝森特强调，流入美国经济的投资浪潮(包括对人工智能的巨额投资)是 可持续的，而且才刚刚开始，但联邦政府的停摆正日益成为这些巨额投资的阻碍。 "确实存在着被压抑的需求，但特朗普总统(Donald Trump)通过其政策路径释放了这一繁荣，"贝森特在华盛顿举行的国际货币基金组织与世界银行年会期间 接受采访时表示。 对于钟情于黄金的投资者们来说，美国政府停摆带来的巨大潜在损失，对于今年以来狂飙超60%跑赢MSCI全球股市基准指数且屡创历史新高的黄金价格来 说无疑是重大积极催化。 "每周损失150亿美元"这一字眼带来的停摆冲击加剧了对美国增长放缓与政策不确定性的担忧，市场随之强化降息押注、偏好避险资产，这几个传导链条都 倾向于支撑金价创新高的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The shipping stocks are experiencing active performance due to the upcoming implementation of the U.S. 301 port fee measures on October 14, which has prompted China to announce retaliatory port fees on U.S. vessels. This situation is expected to create short-term volatility in shipping rates, particularly in the oil transportation sector, where rates have already surged due to recent sanctions and fee announcements [1][2]. Group 1: Shipping Stock Performance - Cosco Shipping Energy (01138) rose by 3.21% to HKD 9.65 [1] - Orient Overseas International (00316) increased by 3% to HKD 126.9 [1] - Cosco Shipping Holdings (01919) gained 2.97% to HKD 12.82 [1] - Yang Ming Marine Transport (02510) saw a rise of 1.7% to HKD 8.39 [1] Group 2: Impact of U.S.-China Port Fee Measures - The U.S. port fee measures are expected to have a limited overall impact on freight rates, but initial implementation chaos may lead to rate fluctuations [1] - The introduction of special port fees by China on U.S. vessels is anticipated to increase costs for shipping companies, potentially leading to a stronger motivation for cost pass-through and increased bargaining power for these companies [2] - In the medium to long term, shipping companies may adjust their capacity across global routes to mitigate the impact of port fees, but the significant role of China in global dry bulk, energy transport, and manufacturing exports necessitates ongoing observation of the situation [2] Group 3: Oil Shipping Market Outlook - Following the recent sanctions and the announcement of special port fees, there is heightened concern regarding port congestion and supply chain efficiency, leading to a significant increase in VLCC shipping rates week-on-week [1] - The combination of seasonal demand and the current market conditions suggests that oil shipping rates are likely to perform strongly in the short term [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. It gives a "volatile" view for each individual energy and chemical product, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride [1][2]. 2. Core View of the Report - Crude oil prices are expected to continue to move downwards in a volatile manner due to weakening demand expectations under macro - level disturbances, such as trade tensions and inventory changes [1]. - High - sulfur fuel oil fundamentals may be slightly stronger than low - sulfur in the short term, but both are expected to be volatile and weak due to Trump's new round of tariff pressure [2]. - Asphalt prices are expected to be volatile and weak in the short term, with a smaller decline compared to crude oil and fuel oil, considering factors like inventory and production [2]. - Polyester chain prices will fluctuate with crude oil prices, and attention should be paid to the possibility of price stops when costs decline and product profits are restored [4]. - Rubber prices are expected to be weakly volatile due to a supply - increase and demand - decrease situation, including factors like export volume decline and inventory changes [4]. - Methanol prices are expected to be volatile. One can consider strategies such as going long on methanol and short on polyolefins, and month - to - month positive spreads [6]. - Polyolefin prices are expected to be weak as fundamental drivers are not strong and crude oil prices are falling [6]. - PVC prices are expected to be volatile and weak due to high supply, slow domestic demand, and weak export prospects [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, WTI 11 - month contract closed down $0.43 to $58.27 per barrel, a 0.73% decline; Brent 12 - month contract closed down $0.48 to $61.91 per barrel, a 0.77% decline; SC2511 closed at 440.1 yuan/barrel, down 3.1 yuan/barrel, a 0.70% decline. API data showed that last week, US API crude oil inventory increased by 7.4 million barrels, and geopolitical events and trade tensions may further weaken demand expectations [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2601 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 1.14% at 2,683 yuan/ton; the low - sulfur fuel oil main contract LU2512 closed down 1.9% at 3,155 yuan/ton. The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore is sufficient, while the high - sulfur market is relatively firm. High and low - sulfur fuel oil prices are expected to be volatile and weak in the short term [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, the main asphalt contract BU2511 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 1.1% at 3,250 yuan/ton. This week, the social inventory rate was 33.63%, up 0.04% month - on - month; the domestic refinery asphalt inventory level was 28.70%, up 2.23% month - on - month; the domestic asphalt plant operating rate was 42.77%, up 4.47% month - on - month. The price is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term [2]. - **Polyester**: TA601 closed at 4,422 yuan/ton, down 0.41%; EG2601 closed at 4,057 yuan/ton, down 0.1%. The polyester chain price is weakly volatile, and it follows crude oil prices. Attention should be paid to the possibility of price stops when costs decline and product profits are restored [4]. - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the main natural rubber contract RU2601 rose 50 yuan/ton to 14,895 yuan/ton; the NR main contract rose 245 yuan/ton to 12,235 yuan/ton; the butadiene rubber BR main contract rose 115 yuan/ton to 10,895 yuan/ton. In the first 9 months of 2025, Cambodia's latex export volume decreased by 11.4% year - on - year. The rubber price is expected to be weakly volatile [4]. - **Methanol**: On Wednesday, the Taicang spot price was 2,317 yuan/ton, the Inner Mongolia north - line price was 2,065 yuan/ton. The domestic supply has recovered recently, and the Iranian Busher plant has resumed production. One can consider strategies such as going long on methanol and short on polyolefins, and month - to - month positive spreads [6]. - **Polyolefins**: On Wednesday, the mainstream price of East China拉丝 was 6,500 - 6,670 yuan/ton. The short - term production will remain high, and the downstream orders in October still have support but the marginal increase will gradually decline. The polyolefin price is expected to be weak [6]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Wednesday, the East China PVC market price was mainly stable. The supply remains high, domestic demand slows down, and exports are expected to be weak. The PVC price is expected to be volatile and weak [7]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring The report provides the basis data of various energy and chemical products on October 15, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, price changes, and the historical quantiles of the latest basis rates [8]. 3.3 Market News - API data showed that last week, US API crude oil inventory increased by 7.4 million barrels, Cushing crude oil inventory decreased by 978,000 barrels, gasoline inventory increased by 3 million barrels, and distillate oil inventory decreased by 4.8 million barrels [11]. - The UK took action against two major Russian oil companies and 51 "shadow fleet" oil tankers, which may lead to more Russian oil leaving the global market [12]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts for various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [14][15][16] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It provides the basis charts of main contracts for various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [30] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report shows the spread charts of different contracts for various products, like fuel oil, asphalt, and European line container shipping [45] - **4.4 Inter - product Spreads**: It presents the spread and ratio charts between different products, such as crude oil internal and external markets, fuel oil high - and low - sulfur, and BU/SC ratio [61] - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report provides the production profit charts for products like ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE [72] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team, including the assistant director and energy and chemical director Zhong Meiyan, crude oil and related product analyst Du Bingqin, natural rubber/polyester analyst Di Yilin, and methanol/PE/PP/PVC analyst Peng Haibo [78][79][80] 3.6 Contact Information The company's address is in the 6th floor and Unit 703, No. 729, Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company's phone number is 021 - 80212222, the fax is 021 - 80212200, the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, and the postal code is 200127 [83]

Group 1: Energy and Metals Investment Rating No specific investment ratings are provided for the industries in this section. Core Viewpoints - The overall outlook for the energy and metals markets is influenced by factors such as international trade tensions, supply - demand dynamics, and geopolitical events. For example,中美 trade frictions and the US government shutdown have added uncertainties to the markets [2][3]. Summary by Commodity - **Crude Oil**: Mid - term outlook is bearish. Supply surplus expectations and inventory increases are pressuring the market. Short - term, attention should be on the impact of China - US talks during the APAC meeting on risk sentiment [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver have a solid long - term upward trend but are overbought in the short - term with high volatility risks, so it's advisable to wait and see [3]. - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Implement a strategy of selling call options with a strike price of 90,000 yuan and buying put options with a strike price of 84,000 yuan [4]. - **Aluminum**: Short - term, it will likely trade in a range, and caution is needed regarding the upside potential [5]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel is weak, and stainless steel has a weak fundamental outlook. The market is influenced by Sino - US frictions, and inventory changes are also a factor [8]. - **Tin**: Hold existing short positions and sold call options [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: There is a short - term risk of correction due to high inventory levels and Sino - US frictions [10]. - **Polysilicon**: Although the futures price has rebounded due to policy expectations, the fundamental situation is not favorable, and the upside is limited in the short - term [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price may remain stable, considering supply changes and cost support [12]. - **Ferrous Metals** - **Steel (Thread and Hot - Rolled Coil)**: The market is under short - term pressure due to weak demand, high production, and cost decline. Attention should be paid to Sino - US relations and domestic demand - stimulating policies [12]. - **Iron Ore**: It is expected to fluctuate weakly at high levels, affected by supply - demand changes, trade frictions, and port fee policies [13]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Prices are oscillating. The market is supported by high iron - water production, and attention should be paid to US tariff policies [14][15]. - **Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron**: Prices showed a pattern of rising and then falling. Demand is supported by high iron - water production, and attention should be paid to external trade frictions [16][17]. - **Shipping Index (European Line)**: The October contract is expected to decline, while the December and February contracts may have limited short - term downside due to peak - season expectations. Attention should be paid to shipping companies' capacity control in November [18]. - **Fuel - Related Products** - **Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil follows the decline of crude oil. High - sulfur fuel oil has short - term support but faces medium - term pressure. Consider shorting high - sulfur cracking spreads and expanding the high - low sulfur spread when the geopolitical situation eases. Low - sulfur fuel oil is under pressure from abundant supply [19]. - **Asphalt**: The supply - demand balance is tight, but it will face pressure in the later part of Q4 due to expected inventory increase and crude oil price decline [20]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: It shows resistance at low levels but lacks significant positive support [21]. - **Urea**: Supply is high, demand is weak, and the market is likely to remain weak, with limited support from future demand improvement [22]. - **Methanol**: The market is affected by port - related news. Continued attention should be paid to port inventory and Sino - US trade relations [23]. - **Pure Benzene and Benzene - Related Products**: Pure benzene is expected to oscillate. Benzene - related products face challenges such as weak downstream demand and high - import volume expectations [24][25]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene**: Supply pressure is increasing, demand is weak, and prices are under pressure [26]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC may decline weakly due to high supply and trade frictions. Caustic soda is expected to have limited downside [27]. - **PX and PTA**: Supply - demand expectations are weak, and prices are likely to remain weak [28]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Pay attention to the support at the integer level and the performance of the raw material market [29]. - **Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip**: Short - fiber is affected by raw material prices and trade frictions. Bottle - chip may face challenges due to over - capacity and weakening demand [30]. - **Glass**: The market is in a weak situation with high inventory and limited downstream demand. Consider low - buying opportunities near the cost [31]. - **Rubber**: Demand is gradually recovering, but supply pressure is high. It's advisable to wait and see [32]. - **Soda Ash**: The market is in a state of supply surplus, and it's advisable to short at high rebounds with caution near the cost [33]. Group 2: Agricultural Products Investment Rating No specific investment ratings are provided for the industries in this section. Core Viewpoints - Agricultural product markets are affected by factors such as international trade relations, government policies, and weather conditions. Uncertainties from Sino - US and Sino - Canada trade relations and the US government shutdown have added complexity to the markets [34][36]. Summary by Commodity - **Grains and Oilseeds** - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: Domestic soybean supply is sufficient in Q4, but there may be a supply shortage in Q1 next year if Sino - US trade relations deteriorate. The market is currently in a data - vacuum period, and it's advisable to wait and see [34]. - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: Oils are expected to be more resilient than meals. Wait for the price to bottom out and then consider long - positions [35]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: Due to uncertainties in Sino - US and Sino - Canada trade relations, the market is in a wait - and - see mode. Consider using rapeseed products as a short - position in cross - product strategies [36]. - **Corn**: The price is at a relatively low level and may be approaching a short - term bottom. Pay attention to new - grain listing and weather - related impacts [38]. - **Livestock and Poultry Products** - **Hogs**: Spot prices are rebounding, but futures are weak. The industry is in the process of capacity reduction, which may support prices in the second half of next year [39]. - **Eggs**: Spot prices are slightly rising, but futures are weak. There is a risk of further price decline in the medium - term [40]. - **Cash Crops** - **Cotton**: The market is weak due to Sino - US trade tensions, high supply expectations, and weak demand. It's advisable to wait and see [41]. - **Sugar**: International supply is abundant, and the domestic market is focused on the new - season production estimate. Pay attention to weather and crop growth [42]. - **Apples**: The futures price is oscillating at a high level. Although the spot market is strong, the expected high inventory may limit the upside [43]. - **Timber**: The price is weak. Supply is low, and demand is lackluster. It's advisable to wait and see [44]. - **Pulp**: The supply is relatively loose, and demand is average. Pay attention to port inventory changes [45]. Group 3: Financial Products Investment Rating No specific investment ratings are provided for the industries in this section. Core Viewpoints - The financial markets, including stock and bond markets, are influenced by domestic economic data, international trade relations, and geopolitical events. Market sentiment and style rotation need to be closely monitored [46][47]. Summary by Product - **Stock Index**: The market is showing signs of recovery. Pay attention to economic data, trade relations, and policy changes. Consider increasing exposure to technology - growth sectors in the medium - term, but be aware of potential style rotation [46]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market is in a repair phase. Short - term, interest rates may oscillate widely at high levels. The yield curve is expected to stop steepening [47].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report The demand for propylene has weakened, and the cost side continues to drag down the propylene market. On the supply side, there is still significant pressure due to the resumption of production by some major manufacturers in Shandong and the restart of northern devices before the holiday, despite some PDH device shutdowns for maintenance. On the demand side, although downstream buyers start to purchase at low prices when propylene reaches a phased low, the enthusiasm for chasing high prices is low, and the demand follow - up has weakened. The cost side is under pressure as international oil prices decline due to weak demand and tariff disturbances, and the external propane price, though slightly rebounding, remains weak, which further drags down the propylene market. [1][2] 3. Summary According to the Directory I. Propylene Basis Structure - The closing price of the propylene main contract is 6079 yuan/ton (-5), the spot price of propylene in East China is 6215 yuan/ton (+0), and the spot price in North China is 6260 yuan/ton (-20). The basis in East China is 136 yuan/ton (+5), and the basis in North China is 181 yuan/ton (-15). [1] II. Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization Rate - The propylene capacity utilization rate is 75% (-1%). The production profit and capacity utilization rate of different propylene production methods are also presented in the data, such as the PDH production method. [1] III. Propylene Import and Export Profit - The import profit is -393 yuan/ton (+30). [1] IV. Propylene Downstream Profit and Capacity Utilization Rate - PP powder capacity utilization rate is 40% (+2.29%), with a production profit of -85 yuan/ton (+20); epoxy propane capacity utilization rate is 72% (+5%), with a production profit of -344 yuan/ton (-115); and so on for other downstream products. [1] V. Propylene Inventory - The in - plant inventory is 43390 tons (-1520). [1] 4. Strategies - Unilateral: Cautiously short - hedge; - Inter - period: Sell the near - term contract and buy the far - term contract for PL01 - 02 when the spread is high; - Inter - commodity: None [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For stock index futures, consider a strategy of buying on dips and pay attention to index rotation. It is believed that fiscal policy may reach a bottleneck, and there is a strong need for monetary policy to be further loosened in the fourth quarter [12][13]. - For treasury bond futures, it is also considered that fiscal policy may reach a bottleneck, and monetary policy is likely to be further loosened. The market is slightly pressured as the stock market rises with shrinking trading volume [14]. - In the black market, steel may experience shock adjustments, and it is recommended to hold short positions in iron ore or reduce positions on dips. The prices of coking coal and coke may continue to fluctuate in the short - term. For ferroalloys, it is recommended to close out short positions on dips and consider going long on dips [16][17][18]. - In the non - ferrous and new materials market, aluminum is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and it is recommended to short on rallies; alumina is expected to continue to seek a bottom, and it is advisable to short on rallies. Carbonate lithium will mainly fluctuate, and industrial silicon will fluctuate weakly in a range [23][26][27]. - In the agricultural products market, for cotton, adopt a short - on - rallies strategy; for sugar, consider short - term short operations or stay on the sidelines; for eggs, short on rallies for near - month contracts; for apples, go long on dips; for corn, buy the 07 contract on dips or sell out - of - the - money call options on the 01 contract; for red dates, stay on the sidelines; for live pigs, hold short positions in near - month contracts and pay attention to the 1 - 3 positive spread strategy [30][32][34]. - In the energy and chemical market, for crude oil, hold existing short positions; for fuel oil, its price follows that of crude oil; for plastics, expect a weak and narrow - range fluctuation; for rubber, it may fluctuate strongly in the short - term, and consider short - selling call options after a rebound; for methanol, wait for a rebound to go long; for caustic soda, expect price fluctuations; for asphalt, it follows the price of crude oil; for liquefied petroleum gas, maintain a bearish view in the long - term [41][42][51]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Information - The US threatens to impose 100% tariffs on China, and the Chinese Foreign Ministry urges the US to correct its wrong actions. China opposes the EU's protectionist and discriminatory practices [8]. - China has achieved key breakthroughs in high - end electronic measurement instruments and filled the gap in high - end electronic design industrial software [8]. - In September 2025, China's CPI rose 0.1% month - on - month and fell 0.3% year - on - year, while the core CPI rose 1% year - on - year. PPI remained flat month - on - month and fell 2.3% year - on - year [8]. - In September 2025, China's M2 increased 8.4% year - on - year, M1 increased 7.2% year - on - year, and the "scissors gap" between M1 and M2 reached a new low for the year. The increase in RMB loans in the first three quarters was 14.75 trillion yuan, and the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 30.09 trillion yuan [9]. - The Fed's "Beige Book" shows that economic activity has changed little, consumer spending has declined slightly, and employment has remained stable. A Fed official suggests that the Fed should cut interest rates twice this year [10]. 3.2 Stock Index Futures - On Wednesday, the A - share market rebounded with shrinking trading volume. The inflation data was in line with expectations, with food and energy prices dragging down CPI. Core CPI continued to rise. PPI improvement was unbalanced, and financial data showed a decline in social financing and M2, while M1 increased significantly [12]. - It is recommended to continue the strategy of buying on dips and pay attention to index rotation [12]. 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures - The market is slightly pressured as the stock market rises with shrinking trading volume. The inflation data is in line with expectations, and financial data shows a decline in social financing and M2, while M1 increases significantly [14]. - It is believed that fiscal policy may reach a bottleneck, and there is a strong need for monetary policy to be further loosened in the fourth quarter [14]. 3.4 Black Market 3.4.1 Steel - From a macro perspective, Sino - US trade frictions have a negative impact on sentiment, but the impact on actual supply and demand is expected to be small. The market should focus on supply - demand fundamentals [16]. - During the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, the real demand for steel downstream has improved limitedly, and the inventory of some varieties is high, which may lead to a shock or off - peak market [16]. - Steel may experience shock adjustments, and it is recommended to hold short positions in iron ore or reduce positions on dips [17]. 3.4.2 Coking Coal and Coke - In the short - term, the prices of coking coal and coke may continue to fluctuate. The supply of coking coal and coke is gradually recovering, but there are still expectations of "anti - involution" and environmental protection restrictions [18]. - In the medium - term, the resumption of coking coal supply is hindered. The demand from steel mills for coking coal and coke is strong, but the current inventory level of downstream coking coal and coke is high, and the short - term demand support is weak [18]. 3.4.3 Ferroalloys - The cost of ferrosilicon may decline slightly in the fourth quarter, and the cost support of silicomanganese is stronger than that of ferrosilicon. It is recommended to close out short positions on dips and consider going long on dips [20]. - The price of ferrosilicon rose significantly during the day but then fell back, mainly due to the influence of the increase in thermal coal prices on sentiment [20]. 3.4.4 Soda Ash and Glass - The soda ash and glass industry chain is operating weakly. It is recommended to hold a bearish view on soda ash or take profits in the short - term, and stay on the sidelines for glass [21]. - The supply of soda ash is at a high level, and the new production capacity of leading enterprises is expected to be postponed. The supply of glass is affected by the decline in the market, and the inventory of the middle - stream is high [21]. 3.5 Non - Ferrous and New Materials Market 3.5.1 Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and it is recommended to short on rallies. Alumina is expected to continue to seek a bottom, and it is advisable to short on rallies [23]. - The inventory of aluminum is decreasing, and the spot premium is rising. The supply of alumina is in a state of high - opening and high - supply, and the inventory is increasing [23]. 3.5.2 Zinc - The spot trading of zinc in the three major domestic markets is weak, and the inventory is increasing. It is recommended to hold short positions [24]. - The price of zinc is affected by trade disputes and weak demand. The domestic and overseas markets have different operating logics, and there are signs of a resonance decline in global zinc prices [25]. 3.5.3 Carbonate Lithium - Carbonate lithium will mainly fluctuate. The supply is increasing, and the demand is in a state of de - stocking, which supports the current price [26]. - The impact of lithium battery export controls on short - term demand is limited, and the high level of warehouse receipts has limited impact on prices [26]. 3.5.4 Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon will fluctuate weakly in a range, and it is advisable to sell call options. The recent decline in the price is mainly due to the expected weakening of supply and demand [27]. - The supply of industrial silicon is expected to increase in October, but there is also an expected decline in inventory due to the dry season in the southwest, resulting in a loose balance of supply and demand [27]. 3.5.5 Polysilicon - The spot price of polysilicon is firm, which supports the lower space of the futures price. It is expected to continue to fluctuate in a narrow range [28]. - The market was affected by rumors of a new cost benchmark for polysilicon on October 15, and the price rebounded due to valuation correction [28]. 3.6 Agricultural Products Market 3.6.1 Cotton - Adopt a short - on - rallies strategy. The upstream - downstream game is complex, with increasing supply pressure and weak demand [30]. - The price of domestic cotton is affected by the international market and the increase in supply, and the demand is uncertain [30][31]. 3.6.2 Sugar - Consider short - term short operations or stay on the sidelines. The global sugar market is expected to have a surplus, and the domestic sugar supply is under pressure [32]. - The price of sugar is affected by supply and cost factors, and the new sugar production is expected to increase [32][33]. 3.6.3 Eggs - Short on rallies for near - month contracts. The inventory of laying hens is high, and the demand is in the off - season, resulting in a loose supply - demand situation [34]. - The spot price of eggs has rebounded slightly, and the price may be affected by vegetable prices [34]. 3.6.4 Apples - Go long on dips. The late - maturing Fuji apples in the eastern and western regions are gradually on the market, and the price in the western region is firm [36]. - Pay attention to the impact of continuous rainfall on the quality of new - season apples [36]. 3.6.5 Corn - Buy the 07 contract on dips or sell out - of - the - money call options on the 01 contract. The spot price of corn is weak, and the new - season supply is increasing [37]. - The price of corn may be supported by the purchase of the central reserve, and attention should be paid to the harvest and grain quality in North China and the selling intention of farmers [37][38]. 3.6.6 Red Dates - Stay on the sidelines. The market price of red dates is stable, and the consumption is poor, but the opening price is expected to be high [39]. - Pay attention to the opening price of new - season red dates [39]. 3.6.7 Live Pigs - Hold short positions in near - month contracts and pay attention to the 1 - 3 positive spread strategy. The market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand after the double festivals [39]. - The supply of live pigs is sufficient, and the demand is weak after the festivals, which drags down the price [39]. 3.7 Energy and Chemical Market 3.7.1 Crude Oil - Hold existing short positions. The supply of crude oil is increasing, and the demand is weakening, resulting in a downward trend in the price [41]. - The price of crude oil is affected by API inventory, trade wars, and geopolitical risks, and there may be a price repair in the future [41]. 3.7.2 Fuel Oil - The price of fuel oil follows that of crude oil. The supply - demand structure of fuel oil is loose, and the demand is flat [42]. - The price of crude oil is affected by geopolitical risks and weak macro - expectations, and the price of fuel oil is also affected [42]. 3.7.3 Plastics - Expect a weak and narrow - range fluctuation. The supply pressure of polyolefins is large, and the demand is weak [43]. - It is recommended to wait for a rebound to short, as the current price is slightly low [43]. 3.7.4 Rubber - It may fluctuate strongly in the short - term, and consider short - selling call options after a rebound. The supply is expected to increase, but it is affected by the NR near - month contract [44]. - The price of rubber is affected by the Fed's interest rate cut signal and the cancellation of NR warehouse receipts [44]. 3.7.5 Methanol - Wait for a rebound to go long. The main contradiction of methanol is the high inventory pressure in ports, and there are also factors such as the impact of winter gas restrictions on production [45]. - The price of methanol is affected by the arrival of Iranian goods in ports, and attention should be paid to the inventory removal process [45]. 3.7.6 Caustic Soda - The price of caustic soda futures is expected to fluctuate. The short - term strength of the fundamentals and the weakness of alumina affect the price [46]. - The spot price of caustic soda has changed, and the price of alumina and liquid chlorine also has an impact on the futures price [46]. 3.7.7 Asphalt - Asphalt follows the price of crude oil. The price of crude oil is affected by geopolitical risks and weak macro - expectations [47]. - The spot price of asphalt has declined, and the demand is in the peak season. Attention should be paid to the inventory removal speed in October [48]. 3.7.8 Liquefied Petroleum Gas - Maintain a bearish view in the long - term. The supply of LPG is abundant, and the demand is difficult to strengthen beyond expectations [51]. - The price of LPG is affected by trade wars, OPEC+ production increases, and the peak season for blending oil is over [51]. 3.7.9 Polyester Industry Chain - The polyester industry chain is expected to follow the cost side and fluctuate weakly. The overall fundamentals lack a clear driving force [50]. - The supply and demand of PX are relatively stable, the supply of PTA increases, and the far - month inventory of ethylene glycol is expected to increase [50].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 10 月 16 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2512 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 震荡 偏强 | 长线看强 | 中长线上行趋势不变，中美摩擦 助推行情 | | 铜 | 2511 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 长线看强 | 矿端扰动再起，资金关注度快速 上升，中美贸易加剧波动 | 说明： 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：上涨 参考观点：长线看强 核心逻辑：近期国际金价持续攀升，昨日纽约金站上 4200 美元关口，沪金站上 960 元关口。短期中 美贸易摩擦扰动及美国政府持续停摆加速金价上行，金价或持续强于银价，金银比值呈现上行态势。 短期的大幅上涨随之而来的是风险的快速积累，近期黄金日内双向波动明显加剧。短期单边可参考 5 日均线作为短期强弱分水岭 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Report's Core View - Overall, the prices of various non - ferrous metals are affected by factors such as trade situations, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic policies. Different metals have different price trends and investment strategies [3][6][9][11][14][17][20][23][26][29] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Information**: Overnight, copper prices showed a trend of rising first and then falling. LME copper 3M contract closed down 0.21% to $10,576/ton, and SHFE copper main contract closed at 85,160 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 450 to 138,350 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants declined. In the domestic market, SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased slightly, and spot premiums and trading volumes varied by region [2] - **Strategy View**: Trump's threat to significantly increase tariffs on China is uncertain. Fundamentally, overseas copper mine production cuts are expected to tighten copper supply in the next two years, and combined with a decrease in domestic refined copper production, the supply - demand relationship strongly supports prices. Short - term copper price decline may be limited. The reference operating range for SHFE copper main contract is 84,400 - 86,500 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is $10,450 - $10,750/ton [3] Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices oscillated and rebounded. LME aluminum 3M contract rose slightly by 0.18% to $2,744/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 20,885 yuan/ton. SHFE aluminum weighted contract positions decreased slightly, and warehouse receipts increased. Domestic and overseas aluminum inventories changed, and market sentiment was still cautious [5] - **Strategy View**: The Sino - US trade situation is still uncertain. From an industrial perspective, with the increase in the domestic aluminum - water ratio, seasonal recovery of consumption, and strong exports, the pressure on aluminum ingot inventory accumulation is not large, and the downside space for aluminum prices is expected to be limited. The reference operating range for SHFE aluminum main contract is 20,740 - 21,050 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is $2,720 - $2,770/ton [6] Lead - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the SHFE lead index closed up 0.41% to 17,124 yuan/ton. There were changes in LME and SHFE lead inventories, and various price spreads and basis values were reported [8] - **Strategy View**: The visible inventory of lead ore has increased slightly, and the smelting start - up of primary lead has remained at a high level. The inventory of scrap lead has declined, and although the smelting start - up of recycled lead has increased, it remains at a low level, and lead ingot factory inventory has accumulated. Downstream battery enterprises' holiday time is less than in previous years, and industry data has improved marginally. On October 10, a large number of LME lead inventories were cancelled, increasing the structural risk of LME lead. It is expected that SHFE lead will run strongly in the short term [9] Zinc - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the SHFE zinc index closed down 0.94% to 22,035 yuan/ton. There were changes in LME and SHFE zinc inventories, and various price spreads and basis values were reported. Domestic social inventory increased slightly [10] - **Strategy View**: During the holiday, domestic zinc smelting enterprises continued normal production, and most downstream zinc enterprises maintained normal production. LME zinc registered warrants are still at an absolute low level, and there is still a structural risk. After the zinc ingot export window opened, short - positions on the domestic market were closed, providing short - term support for SHFE zinc. It is expected that SHFE zinc will oscillate at a low level with increased risk fluctuations [11] Tin - **Market Information**: On October 15, 2025, the SHFE tin main contract closed at 281,710 yuan/ton, up 0.46% from the previous day. The supply of tin ore is tight due to slow resumption of production in Myanmar and crackdown on illegal mining in Indonesia. The smelting start - up rate of refined tin has decreased. Downstream demand is mixed, with some sectors booming and others dragging down demand. Although the traditional peak season has led to marginal improvement in consumption, high tin prices still restrain downstream consumption [13] - **Strategy View**: In the short term, Sino - US trade frictions may drive down market risk appetite, but the short - term tin supply - demand is in a tight balance state, and combined with the recovery of peak - season demand, tin prices may remain oscillating at a high level. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract is 270,000 - 290,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is $34,000 - $36,000/ton [14] Nickel - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, nickel prices oscillated. The SHFE nickel main contract closed at 121,180 yuan/ton, up 0.29% from the previous day. Spot market transactions were average, and the prices of nickel ore, nickel iron, and intermediate products were stable or slightly changed [15] - **Strategy View**: In the short term, Sino - US trade frictions may drive down market risk appetite, but since the previous increase in nickel prices was limited, the impact is relatively small. Recently, nickel iron prices have weakened, and refined nickel inventory pressure is still significant, which may drag down nickel prices. In the long term, US easing expectations, domestic anti - involution policies, and RKAB approval are expected to support nickel prices. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and consider buying on dips if the price drops enough. The reference operating range for SHFE nickel main contract is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is $14,500 - $16,500/ton [17] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The Five - Mineral Steel Union lithium carbonate spot index (MMLC) closed down 0.12% to 72,927 yuan. The LC2601 contract closed at 72,940 yuan, up 0.25% from the previous day [19] - **Strategy View**: On Wednesday, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate warehouse receipts decreased again, and inventory has been continuously reduced. If consumption remains strong and resonates with the macro - environment, it is expected to open up upward space for lithium prices. The short - term probability of strong oscillation is high. The reference operating range for the LC2601 contract is 71,880 - 75,280 yuan/ton [20] Alumina - **Market Information**: On October 15, 2025, the alumina index fell 0.25% to 2,805 yuan/ton. There were changes in positions, basis, overseas prices, and inventory [22] - **Strategy View**: Ore prices are supported in the short term but may be under pressure after the rainy season. The over - capacity pattern in the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. The opening of the import window may exacerbate the over - supply situation. However, the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut may drive the non - ferrous metal sector to run strongly. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and wait for the resonance of macro - sentiment. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,600 - 3,000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [23] Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the stainless steel main contract closed at 12,560 yuan/ton, down 0.04%. Spot prices of different products changed slightly, and raw material prices were stable. Futures inventory decreased, and social inventory increased [25] - **Strategy View**: After the holiday, social inventory has significantly accumulated, but terminal consumption is flat, and the market does not show the characteristics of the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, which may be related to the pre - consumption caused by the concentrated delivery of previous orders. In the spot market, Qingshan - series products led the decline, driving other varieties to follow suit. Affected by pessimistic expectations, downstream risk - aversion sentiment is strong, and market trading is light. It is expected that the market trend will be weak [26] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the AD2511 contract rose 0.2% to 20,365 yuan/ton. There were changes in positions, trading volume, and warehouse receipts. The price of domestic mainstream ADC12 was stable, and the market trading atmosphere was average [28] - **Strategy View**: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and the delivery pressure on the near - month contract of cast aluminum alloy is still large, putting pressure on the price upside [29]

Group 1 - A-shares opened lower with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.29% and the ChiNext Index down 0.58% [1] - The charging pile sector showed active performance, while rare earth permanent magnets, cultivated diamonds, and humanoid robots experienced significant declines [1] Group 2 - Industrial trends and market conditions remain the core focus for investment strategies, with recommendations to invest in domestic demand sectors such as agriculture, beverages, and brokerage insurance [1] - The upcoming quarterly reports and the Fourth Plenary Session are expected to influence market strategies, emphasizing self-sufficiency and sectors benefiting from the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1] - Key sectors highlighted include military industry, domestic computing industry chain, innovative pharmaceuticals, North American computing chain, gaming, and batteries [1] Group 3 - Market outlook remains optimistic for the fourth quarter, with expectations for a technology-led rally and potential new highs in sectors like overseas computing, semiconductors, and robotics [2] - The concept of "anti-involution" is seen as crucial for the transition from structural bull to a comprehensive bull market, particularly in solar energy and chemicals [2] - Hong Kong stocks are expected to benefit from global easing and the emergence of new economic trends [2] Group 4 - The probability of continued rebound in stock indices is high, with the Shanghai Composite Index expected to steadily approach the 4,000-point mark, while large technology remains the main focus for investment [3]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - In September, China's exports increased by 8.3% year-on-year, benefiting from a low base effect and strong external demand, despite a 27.0% decline in exports to the US [2] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in September fell by 0.3% year-on-year, while the core CPI rose by 1.0%, indicating a relatively positive signal driven by rising jewelry prices [2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month, primarily due to low base effects [3] Group 2: Market Conditions - The funding environment is gradually becoming looser, with key rates such as DR001 and DR007 at approximately 1.31% and 1.43% respectively, indicating a balanced but slightly relaxed liquidity situation [4] - The People's Bank of China has injected a net liquidity of 400 billion yuan through reverse repos, reflecting a supportive stance towards market liquidity [4] - Despite a balanced liquidity outlook, expectations for further monetary easing are weak, limiting the potential for further declines in funding costs [4] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Risks - Recent volatility in domestic asset prices is attributed to ongoing uncertainties from US-China trade tensions, although market sentiment has shifted towards optimism compared to April [5] - The necessity for moderate allocation of certain-term government bonds remains to hedge against macroeconomic uncertainties [5] - Overall, holiday consumption data showed moderate growth, external demand remains resilient, and domestic inflation is low, providing support for the bond market [5]