投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2025-07-03 欧洲极端天⽓来袭，能化延续震荡整理 欧洲正经历一场强烈的热浪，由于高压系统持续盘踞，法国和德国的 卫生当局已发布红色警报，法国的核电站运营已经受限，莱茵河水位也降 至历史偏低水平。往年的高温天气都通常会引发天然气、柴油的发电能源 的走高，当前欧美中质馏分库存普遍低位，这可能从情绪和边际需求上提 振中质馏分和原油价格，油化工亦有支撑。 板块逻辑： 国内商品市场周三整体有支撑，光伏玻璃业和钢铁行业传出了"反内 卷"倡议，并可能后期采取实际行动集体减产，这带来了黑色板块的大幅 反弹，对化工品也略有提振。化工本身变化寥寥，芳烃系列品种，苯乙烯 和PTA都出现了基差的逐步走弱；聚烯烃的基差本身就偏弱，本周以来也 仍在下滑。商品整体氛围的偏强对化工略有提振，但自身供需并未实质性 改变。 原油：地缘再有波澜，油价大幅攀升 LPG：盘面回归交易基本面宽松，PG盘面或弱势震荡 沥青：沥青期价震荡，等待利空发酵 高硫燃油：高硫燃油利空仍待发酵 低硫燃油：低硫燃油期价跟随原油下跌 甲醇：内地港口分化，甲醇震荡 尿素：国内供强需弱格 ...

液化石油气日报 | 2025-07-03 现货价格大体持稳，盘面窄幅波动 市场分析 1、\t7月2日地区价格：山东市场，4570-4700；东北市场，4120—4310；华北市场，4555-4650；华东市场，4480-4650； 沿江市场，4620-4820；西北市场，4250—4350；华南市场，4650-4720。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 2、\t2025年7月下半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷585美元/吨，稳定，丁烷540美元/吨，稳定，折合人民币价格 丙烷4607元/吨，稳定，丁烷4253元/吨，稳定。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2025年8月上半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷590美元/吨，稳定，丁烷540美元/吨，稳定，折合人民币价格 丙烷4646元/吨，稳定，丁烷4253元/吨，稳定。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 随着中东局势缓和，地缘溢价大幅回落，LPG盘面回到窄幅震荡状态，市场驱动不足。昨日外盘丙丁烷掉期与国 内液化气现货价格也大体持稳，波动幅度较小。就LPG基本面而言，整体供需格局仍偏宽松，在中东断供风险消 退后，海外货源供应较为充裕，尤其美国LPG出口仍处于高位，出口终端扩建项目投产后供应增 ...

Group 1 - The domestic liquefied gas market in China showed a downward trend in the first half of 2025, with an average price of 4833 yuan/ton for civil gas, down 84 yuan/ton or 1.71% year-on-year [2] - The average price for ether C4 was 4947 yuan/ton, a decrease of 317 yuan/ton or 6.02% year-on-year [2] - The overall energy prices were weak due to macro risks and supply-demand dynamics, with international crude oil prices fluctuating significantly [2][3] Group 2 - The supply of liquefied gas in the domestic market exceeded demand in the first half of 2025, with total supply estimated at 38.07 million tons and total demand at 37.56 million tons [3] - Inventory levels showed a trend of decreasing initially and then increasing, influenced by rising imports and low domestic demand [3] - The forecast for the second half of 2025 indicates a potential increase in liquefied gas prices initially, followed by a decline due to supply exceeding demand [4][6] Group 3 - The expected total supply for the second half of 2025 is 38.88 million tons, while total demand is projected at 37.60 million tons [4] - Domestic production is anticipated to increase due to reduced refinery maintenance and the gradual resumption of previously halted facilities [4] - The demand for liquefied gas is expected to rise slightly as the market transitions from off-peak to peak season, but overall demand remains in a downward trend [5] Group 4 - The average price forecast for civil gas in the second half of 2025 is 4773 yuan/ton, with a high of 4910 yuan/ton in October and a low of 4600 yuan/ton in July [7] - The average price for ether C4 is projected to be 4901 yuan/ton, with a peak of 5000 yuan/ton in September and a low of 4780 yuan/ton in December [7] - The market for ether C4 is expected to experience price fluctuations, initially rising due to increased demand and then declining in the fourth quarter [7]

Group 1: Oil Market Dynamics - International oil prices rose due to geopolitical risks and optimistic trade sentiments, but were constrained by a surge in U.S. crude oil inventories [1][2] - As of the latest close, West Texas Intermediate crude oil for August settled at $67.45 per barrel, up $2.00 (3.06%), while Brent crude for September settled at $69.11 per barrel, also up $2.00 (2.98%) [1] - U.S. crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased by 3.8 million barrels, the largest rise in three months, contrasting with analyst expectations of a decrease of 1.8 million barrels [2] Group 2: Geopolitical and Trade Influences - Iran's decision to limit inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reflects a challenge to the Western-led non-proliferation regime, increasing geopolitical risk premiums [3] - The U.S. reached a zero-tariff agreement with Vietnam, which has temporarily boosted investor sentiment regarding trade relations [2][4] - The trade agreement is seen as a potential signal for more agreements before the July 9 deadline, although the actual economic impact remains uncertain [4] Group 3: Supply and Demand Factors - Gasoline demand has dropped to 8.6 million barrels per day, raising concerns about summer driving season consumption, which typically requires around 9 million barrels per day to indicate market health [2][4] - Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports increased by 450,000 barrels per day in June, marking the largest rise in over a year, which may impact OPEC's production strategies [2] Group 4: Structural Challenges in Oil Production - The increase in U.S. crude oil inventories alongside Saudi export increases highlights the challenges faced by OPEC in balancing production cuts with market share [5] - The current market is experiencing a tug-of-war between "Iran risk premium" (+5% volatility potential) and "demand reality pressure" (-3% adjustment pressure), indicating a divergence between sentiment and data [5]

近期，中东紧张局势再起，引爆地区火药桶，地缘时政风险溢价急速涌入市场。当恐慌情绪与避险资本 形成的洪流迎头相撞，黄金市场的多空博弈必将进一步白热化！历史经验反复证明，乱局之下，黄金闪 耀。想要捕捉这轮由地缘冲突催生的市场良机？记得先来领取皇御贵金属的$26/手点差福利，超低成本 助您轻松入市，抢占黄金机遇的至高点！ （图源/皇御贵金属官网） 利率预期生变，黄金中长期支撑稳固 尽管美联储在上半年按下了降息暂停键，但其面临的挑战有增无减。美国政府债务率已飙升至历史警戒 水平，经济数据亦频频释放疲软信号，复苏前景蒙上阴影。市场嗅觉最为敏锐，联邦基金利率期货市场 清晰显示，投资者普遍押注美联储年内降息1-2次的概率已超过65%。一旦降息周期开启，实际利率的 下行趋势将直接削弱美元吸引力，使得黄金受益。 （图源/网络） 数据爆点密集降临，7月黄金机遇不容错过 机会往往伴随波动而生！即将到来的7月，市场将迎来一系列重磅经济数据的"三连击"，牵动市场神经 的美国非农就业报告、揭示通胀趋势的CPI、以及反映经济活力的零售销售数据。这些核心数据如同市 场的风向标与催化剂，其任何超预期的表现都可能引发市场情绪的剧烈波动，潜藏着巨 ...

铜: 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜早报- 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 1、基本面：冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，6月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.5%， 与上月持平，制造业景气度基本稳定；中性。 2、基差：现货80890，基差350，升水期货；中性。 3、库存：7月2日铜库存增2000至93250吨，上期所铜库存较上周减19264吨至81550吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓空，空增；偏空。 6、预期：美联储降息放缓，库存高位去库，美国贸易关税不确定性，地缘扰动仍存，铜价偏强运行. 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 国内政策宽松 和 贸易战升级 风险： 自然灾害 1、俄乌,伊以地缘政治扰动。 2、美 ...

2025年1-5月份，中国自中东地区进口原油的占比份额为42.5%，较去年同期下降3.3个百分点，较过去 五年均值水平下降5.6个百分点；中国自亚太地区进口原油的占比份额为15.0%，较去年同期提升4.0个 百分点，较过去五年均值水平提升6.3个百分点。自南美地区进口原油的占比份额为10.1%，较去年同期 下降0.3个百分点，较过去五年均值水平提升0.9个百分点。 山东地炼一次常减压开工负荷50.74%，较上周下跌0.74个百分点。具体来看，本周华联进入检修期；昌 邑常减压装置开工，其他二次装置暂未开；京博负荷进一步提升；其他炼厂装置稳定。 【行情回顾】 截至7月3日，伊朗暂停与国际原子能机构合作，市场对地缘局势不稳定性的担忧浮现，国际油价上涨。 NYMEX原油期货08合约67.45涨2.00美元/桶，环比+3.06%；ICE布油期货09合约69.11涨2.00美元/桶，环 比+2.98%。中国INE原油期货主力合约2508涨1.5至498.5元/桶，夜盘涨10.5至509元/桶。 【重要资讯】 建议观望为主，WTI上方阻力给到[67,68]，布伦特压力在[69,70]，SC在 [510,520]；期权端可以 ...

原油产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年7月3日 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料,但广发期货对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证,本报告反映研究 人员的不同观点、见解及分析方法，并不代表广发期货或其附属机构的立场。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所表达的意见 并不拘成所述品种买卖的出价或询价，投资者据此投资，风险自担。本报告旨在发送给广发期货特定客户及其他专业人士，版权归广发期货所 有,未经广发期货书面授权,任何人不得对本报告进行任何形式的发布、复制,如引用、刊发,需注明出处为'广发期货'。 专心,专业,专为您 关注微信公众号 聚酯产业链日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 张晓珍 Z0003135 宙 扬 Z0020680 | 原油价格及价差 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品中 | 7月3日 | 7月2日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 単位 | | Brent | 69.11 | 67.11 | 2.00 | 2.98% | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2025-07-03 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2508 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，原油震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：由于美国总统特朗普发表评论预示伊朗和以色列冲突将结束，市场交易地缘逻辑弱化。 随后消息传出伊朗和以色列宣布正式停火。这引发投资者大幅调整预期，认为中东地缘因素对于油 价的影响不会进一步激化，后期地缘溢价会进一步回落。在经历前期大幅回落以后，本周油市步 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that gold prices have significantly rebounded due to expectations of an expanding U.S. fiscal deficit, driven by Trump's "big and beautiful" legislation [1] - The Senate has narrowly passed a tax and spending bill, which is expected to increase the U.S. fiscal deficit by $2.8 trillion to $3.3 trillion over the next decade, depending on the version [1] - The weakening of the U.S. dollar and dovish signals from the Federal Reserve are also contributing factors to the rise in gold prices, with the dollar index hitting a three-year low of 96.37 [1][2] Group 2 - Market participants are divided on the outlook for interest rate cuts, with some believing that weak economic data and dovish Fed comments increase the likelihood of early cuts, while others point to a strong job market and inflation risks delaying cuts [2] - Ongoing global trade tensions and geopolitical risks are expected to maintain gold's safe-haven appeal, with short-term price fluctuations anticipated as the July 9 tariff negotiation deadline approaches [2] - The upcoming U.S. CPI data on July 15 will be crucial in assessing inflation trends and could influence market expectations for rate cuts, potentially driving gold prices higher if core CPI growth is weaker than expected [2]