Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenues on a TCE basis of $79.3 million and adjusted EBITDA of $56.4 million. Net income was reported at $44.1 million, equating to $0.27 per share. After adjusting for a $19.8 million gain on the sale of a vessel, the net profit for the quarter was $24.3 million, or $0.15 per share [6][7][10] - The average TCE for vessels in the spot market was $36,300 per day, while vessels on time charters earned $42,700 per day, resulting in a combined average TCE of $38,200 per day for the quarter [6][10] - The company ended the quarter with total liquidity of $277 million, consisting of $80.5 million in cash and $196.2 million available under revolving credit facilities. Financial leverage was reported at 16.9% based on market values for the ships [7][10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company sold the DHT Scandinavia for $43.4 million, recording a capital gain of $19.8 million during the quarter. The proceeds will be allocated to general corporate purposes, including investments in vessels and share buybacks [10][17] - Two time charter contracts were entered into: DHT China at $40,000 per day for one year and DHT Tiger at $52,500 per day for one year [10][11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company expects to have 780 time charter days covered for Q2 2025 at $42,200 per day, an improvement compared to the prior quarter. The current spot market is strong, with an estimated spot P&L breakeven of $17,500 per day for Q2 [14][15] - The VLCC fleet is projected to shrink as demand for services grows, with an estimated 441 VLCCs older than 15 years by the end of 2026 [21][22] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to fine-tune its fleet profile based on customer feedback and market conditions, focusing on investing in ships rather than share buybacks or further strengthening the balance sheet [29] - The company plans to expand its fleet with four new ships in the first half of 2026, which will provide additional earnings days [18][19] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the market, noting that OPEC's strategy could lead to a robust summer market, which is atypical for the season [55] - The company believes that both scenarios regarding Iranian sanctions could positively impact the VLCC business, whether sanctions are lifted or maintained [60][61] Other Important Information - The company declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.15 per share, marking the 61st consecutive quarterly cash dividend [12] - The company acquired the remaining shares in Goodwood Ship Management for $6.1 million, fully integrating it into DHT's operations [19] Q&A Session Summary Question: Decision on vessel sales and cash allocation priorities - Management indicated that the decision to sell older ships was based on market conditions and customer preferences. The allocation of cash for corporate purposes, investments, share buybacks, and debt prepayment is not in a specific order but depends on market opportunities [27][29] Question: Appetite for extended contracts and profit-sharing structures - Management expressed excitement about the long-term time charter contract with DHT Appaloosa, indicating a potential shift towards more extended contracts and profit-sharing arrangements [33][35] Question: Impact of OPEC's production increase on the market - Management noted that while it is early to predict the exact impact of OPEC's production increases, they expect to see more cargo in the market, which could positively affect VLCC demand [39][40] Question: Fuel spreads and macroeconomic impacts - Management discussed the current state of fuel spreads and indicated that while the market is dynamic, the relationship between demand for different fuel types could influence spreads [44][46] Question: Future of the VLCC market with potential Iranian oil re-entry - Management outlined two scenarios regarding Iranian oil sanctions, both of which could be positive for the VLCC market, depending on whether sanctions are lifted or maintained [60][61]

Core Insights - Oil prices have risen for two consecutive days, indicating a potential recovery from four-year lows [1] - Analysts caution that risks remain due to OPEC+ production increases and uncertainties in U.S. policies [1] Group 1: Oil Price Trends - Oil prices have shown an upward trend recently, but the sustainability of this increase is uncertain [1] - The market is closely monitoring OPEC+ decisions regarding production levels, which could impact future oil prices [1] Group 2: Market Risks - Analysts highlight the ongoing risks associated with OPEC+ production strategies, which may lead to increased supply and downward pressure on prices [1] - Uncertainties in U.S. energy policies could further complicate the market outlook for oil prices [1]

Cotton Market Analysis - ICE cotton prices fell by 0.88% to 67.82 cents per pound, while CF509 dropped by 0.23% to 12,745 yuan per ton, with a significant increase in open interest by 6,434 contracts to 587,500 contracts [1] - The price of cotton in Xinjiang decreased by 79 yuan per ton to 13,846 yuan per ton, and the China Cotton Price Index for grade 3128B fell by 70 yuan per ton to 14,113 yuan per ton [1] - The macroeconomic environment remains uncertain, with mixed data from the US and expectations that the Federal Reserve will likely maintain its current stance in May, leading to a slight decline in the dollar index [1] - Weather conditions have improved as the area affected by drought in major cotton-producing regions of the US and Texas has decreased [1] - The domestic cotton market is experiencing low volatility, with expectations of improved US-China tariff conditions and cotton prices at historical lows, limiting downside potential [1] - The cotton planting season is nearly complete, with a year-on-year increase in planting area, but overall supply-demand dynamics are not expected to change significantly [1] - Short-term expectations suggest continued low-level fluctuations in Zheng cotton prices, with attention on macroeconomic and weather-related disturbances [1] Sugar Market Dynamics - For the 2024/25 crushing season ending April 30, 2025, India crushed 27,585.7 million tons of sugarcane, a decrease of 3,565.5 million tons or 11.44% from the previous year, with sugar production falling by 577 million tons or 18.33% to 2,569.5 million tons [1] - In the spot market, prices from Guangxi Sugar Group were reported at 6,140 to 6,270 yuan per ton, down by 20 to 30 yuan, while Yunnan Sugar Group's prices were 5,950 to 5,990 yuan per ton, down by 20 yuan [1] - Raw sugar prices experienced a brief rebound due to macroeconomic sentiment and rising crude oil prices, but concerns over increased production pressured prices, leading to a bearish outlook [1] - Domestic spot prices have been adjusted downwards with average transaction volumes, and while there is not significant pressure on domestic sugar inventories, the potential for future sugar imports is being considered [1]

克兰冲突的和平进程。然而美国总统特朗普昨日发文称,或许要通过金融领域的 制裁或二级制裁措施来对付普京。鲁比奥还表示,俄罗斯和乌克兰在达成和平协 议方面总体比过去三年来更为接近,俄鸟之间的和平协议需要尽快达成,美国有 多种方式追究那些不愿意推动鸟克兰和平协议的责任人责任。 7、国国务卿鲁比奥周日表示,美国不会扩大对俄罗斯的制裁,以免于扰解决乌 近期原油价格持续下行,市场观望氛围较浓。部分贸易商为回笼资金低价抛 货,北方区域部分炼厂恢复沥青生产,带动当地供应量有所增加。假期期间沥青 价格小幅回落。南方市场主力炼厂维持间歇性生产,以船运发货为主,炼厂库存 水平下降,对沥青价格形成一定支撑。北方市场需求虽缓慢回升,但区域沥青供 应量预计继续增加,叠加成本端支撑较弱,沥青价格或维持弱稳态势;南方市场 延续按需采购模式,低价资源成交占比更高,由于整体供应充裕,沥青价格大概 率延续窄幅震荡走势。 交易策略:单边预计跟随原油价格震荡。 【BU】 | ITC国贸期货 | 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 利空释放，中美进行贸易谈判，油价反弹。商务部消息称，中方决定同意与美方进行接 | | 原油 | 反弹 | 触；API 数据显示，美国原油和汽油库存下降；关税政策仍具不确定性，IMF 下调 25 年 | | | | 全球 GDP 增速。SC【460-470】 | | LPG | 反弹 | 利空释放，液化气反弹。五一节后，OPEC+增产利空释放，上游油价反弹；港口库存连 | | | | 续上升。PG【4430-4470】 | | L | 企稳 | 基差显著走强，油价反弹，装置维持高开工，供给充沛，短线空单可部分止盈。中长期， | | | | 装置投产压力偏高叠加原油下行，逢高偏空。L【6980-7080】 | | PP | 企稳 | 装置大量重启，中美开始贸易谈判，空 L-PP 价差止盈。中长期，装置投产压力偏高叠加 | | | | 原油下行，反弹偏空。PP【6980-7070】。 | | PVC | 震荡 | 电石涨价，仓单窄幅增加，中美开始贸易谈判，市场情绪好转。关注春检力度及宏观政 | | | | 策变动 ...

在技术指标显示原油近期跌势可能过度后，油价周二从四年多来最低收盘价大幅反弹。 周二美盘，两油均涨超3%，布伦特原油过去六个交易日下跌近10%后升至每桶62美元上方，WTI原油重回59美元上方。技术面方面，两油近期在九日相对 强弱指数（RSI）上跌入超卖区域，并跌破了布林带下轨。此外，油市已经出现了一些初步疲软迹象，布伦特原油期货的现货溢价结构是自2月以来最小 的。这些指标都表明油市近期的跌速过快。 欧佩克+上周末同意从6月开始进一步增产后，油价周一下跌，沙特警告称，如果超额生产的成员国不遵守规定，可能会进一步增产。由于世界两大经济体 之间的贸易紧张威胁到全球增长，油价接近四年低点，欧佩克+的行动加剧了原油期货的看跌压力。 盛宝银行大宗商品策略主管Ole Hansen表示："焦点正从已经被消化的欧佩克+增产转向需求，而需求又取决于全球贸易战，特别是能否找到解决方案。美国 页岩油生产商暗示未来几个月在维持产量方面将面临更艰难时期，这也支撑了油价。" 美国总统特朗普表示，他愿意在某个时候降低对中国的关税，因为税率太高，两国实际上已停止彼此的商业活动。 有迹象表明，较低的油价正开始对欧佩克以外地区的供应产生影响。 二 ...

1、外盘变化：截止 5 月 2 日收盘，美豆主力较 4 月 30 日收盘上涨 1.36%，美豆油主力上涨 1.12%。 2、国际大豆：当前时间窗口下，正处美豆播种与南美豆收割、出口季，目前巴西豆收割基 本完成。总体来看，南美新作丰产格局或将大概率成为事实。 3、国内产业层面：综合供需端，豆油中期去库周期或逐渐进入尾声阶段，关注后市南美进 口大豆到港、海关检验放行后，豆油库存或低位反弹。 4、参考观点：豆油 2509 合约，短线或区间震荡整理。 现货信息：43 豆粕各地区现货报价：天津 3300 元/吨（-00）、日照 3530 元/吨（-50）、东 莞 3380 元/吨（-240）。 市场分析：（1）宏观面: 中美贸易关税问题暂未解决，影响中美大豆贸易。 （2）国际大豆：市场交易重心转移至北美播种季，巴西大豆即将进入出口高峰期。 （3）国内豆粕供需面：关注节后巴西大豆清关情况，当前现货偏紧，随着到港大豆集中， 油厂开机恢复，现货偏紧的情况逐步缓解。节后下游开启补库阶段，短期或将提振豆粕成 交。 参考观点：豆粕短线或震荡偏弱。 现货信息：东北三省及内蒙重点深加工企业新玉米主流收购均价 2128 元/吨；华北黄淮 ...

策略早餐 主要品种策略早餐 （2025.05.06） 养殖、畜牧及软商品板块 品种：生猪 2、需求方面，截至 2025 年 5 月 2 日，当周重点屠宰企业冻品库容率为 17.27%，仍处 于较低位置。由于春节后屠宰端持续亏损，尽管毛猪价格较低，但终端消费不接受高价猪肉， 因此屠宰端后续或将转向投机行为，叠加当前冻品库存处于历史低位，当价格足够低时，屠 宰端或将进行冻品分割入库，后续或有增加库存可能，对于消费有一定提振作用。 3、综合来看，前期的二育及压栏暂未集中释放，供应压力持续后移，二季度仍然面临 较大的供应压力。而消费端暂无明显的提振因素，因此当前供强需弱的格局未变，短期生猪 出栏或增加，猪价重心持续下移。盘面方面，由于市场对于供应压力后移的情况较为确定， 因此 07、09 合约仍然偏空，但二次育肥、饲料价格上涨对于猪价存在托底作用，整体呈现 上涨有限、下跌有底的震荡格局，需关注后续的累库释放情况。建议养殖端卖出虚值看跌期 权或参与累销期权产品。 品种：白糖 日内观点：探底回升 中期观点：先扬后抑 参考策略：累购期权 核心逻辑： 1 请务必阅读文末免责条款 日内观点：稳中偏弱 中期观点：宽幅震荡 参考策 ...

| Clerkers | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【201 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 唐第政府 | | 研究院:李泽矩 | | | 发布日期:2025/05/ | | 投资咨询号:Z0000116 从业资格号:F0251925 | | | | | 行业板块 | 品种 | 趋势研判 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | | | 股指 | 震荡 | 节后开盘避免追高,关注中小盘弹性释放机会,多头品种上主要考虑中证 1000 (IM) | | 宏观金融 | 国债 | 震荡 | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨空间。 | | | 黄金 | 震荡 | 短期震荡调整为主,但中长期上涨逻辑尚未改变。 | | | 日 银 | | 关税不确定性仍高企,商品属性或想对限制银价上方空间。 | | | | | 铜下游需求尚可,但贸易摩擦阴霾仍笼罩市场,近期谨防价格回调风险。 | | | | | 策略方面关注沪铜正套机会。 | | | 铝 | 震荡 | 全球贸易摩擦虽仍有不确定性,铝价震荡运行。 | | | 氧化铝 | 農汤 | 氧化铝供需格局有所好转,预计下行 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The first scenario is likely to be triggered, and the price of oils and fats may decline. The recent increase in supply and concerns about the decline of high valuations are more certain. The supply shortage of US biodiesel and rapeseed may already be reflected in the high prices of US soybean oil and rapeseed products. It is expected that the price of oils and fats will decline in the near future [2][9] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Recent Market Review of Oils and Fats - Since April, Trump's trade policy has caused global commodity turmoil. Crude oil prices have dropped significantly due to pessimistic expectations, driving down the overall price of vegetable oils. High-frequency data shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil has increased significantly, but the high-frequency export data in the early April was good. The market expects that India and other regions may be replenishing their inventories, and the inventory of Malaysian palm oil in April is still at a relatively low level. The price of US soybean oil was strong in April because the domestic inventory of US soybean oil was low, and the US biodiesel policy is expected to significantly increase the consumption of soybean oil. Supported by these two factors, the price of oils and fats has stabilized and fluctuated [4] 2. The Export of Malaysian Palm Oil in April May Fall Short of Expectations, and the Increase in Production and Accumulation of Inventory May Drive Down the Price of Oils and Fats - The latest high-frequency data in April shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil increased by 17.03% month-on-month in the first 30 days of April, and the production in April may reach the highest level in the same period in the past five years. The export increased by 3.6%-5.1% month-on-month, reversing the previous recovery trend. If the apparent consumption is estimated at 350,000 tons, the inventory of Malaysian palm oil at the end of April may be around 1.75 million tons. If the abnormally high apparent consumption of 450,000 tons in March is considered, the inventory at the end of April may be around 1.65 million tons. Against the background of a significant recovery in production, if the demand countries slow down the pace of inventory replenishment, the accumulation of inventory of Malaysian palm oil will accelerate. The valuation of Malaysian palm oil is usually related to crude oil and the inventory of Malaysian palm oil. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is usually inversely proportional to POGO, and this inverse relationship has become more obvious in recent years with the increase in the blending ratio of biofuels. From the perspective of the data relationship, if the inventory of Malaysian palm oil recovers to the level of 1.7 million tons, the spread usually drops to around $200/ton, while the current spread level is $400/ton. Therefore, against the background that the accumulation of inventory of Malaysian palm oil may reach the level of 1.7 million tons, there may be room for the price of oils and fats to decline in the future [5] 3. The US Biodiesel Policy May Be Bullish in the Medium Term, but the Short-Term Supply Pressure Still Needs to Be Released - In the previous WeChat official account post, it was believed that for palm oil to show a clear upward or downward trend in the future, new drivers are needed from crude oil, production, and demand. There are two scenarios. The first scenario is that the production recovers significantly in April and May, leading to the expectation of inventory accumulation; or the price of crude oil drops significantly, resulting in a decrease in demand and impaired valuation; or a combination of the two, triggering a significant decline scenario. The second scenario is that the production of palm oil fails to increase before July, just meeting the demand. The macroeconomy stabilizes, and there are weather problems in the planting of soybeans and rapeseed, which is likely to lead to a high-level oscillation scenario. Currently, the first scenario is likely to be triggered, and the price of oils and fats may decline. The market is discussing the bullish factors of the supply-side reduction in rapeseed production in Europe and the low inventory of rapeseed in the producing areas, as well as the demand-side US soybean oil biodiesel policy. Due to the low average temperature in Europe, the growth period of rapeseed is longer, and the drought in the early stage reached a historical level. However, the recent rainfall has recovered, and the extent of the production reduction still needs further verification. According to the data of Statistics Canada, the exportable inventory of Canadian rapeseed is almost exhausted, while according to the data of USDA, there is still a certain amount of export. The recent continuous increase in the futures price also reflects the tight supply of rapeseed in the country. However, the inventory of domestic rapeseed oil is relatively high. Under the situation that the palm oil producing areas are actively reducing prices and the supply of soybean oil is sufficient, the difficulty of destocking domestic rapeseed oil in the future also needs to be tested. The US soybean oil biodiesel policy is expected to increase the demand for soybean oil by 500,000-1 million tons per year due to the expected increase in the blending obligation, but the specific details and the use of foreign raw materials still need to be determined by the official, which is expected to be established at some point this year. Overall, the recent increase in supply and concerns about the decline of high valuations are more certain. The supply shortage of US biodiesel and rapeseed may already be reflected in the high prices of US soybean oil and rapeseed products. It is expected that the price of oils and fats will decline in the near future [8][9]