Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Views - The lithium carbonate market is currently in a situation of "strong reality, strong expectation", and the operation should still focus on buying on dips. The polysilicon market may continue to be weak, and the industrial silicon market is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term [1][3][13] Summary by Related Catalogs Carbonate Lithium - **Market Trend**: The lithium carbonate futures had a certain degree of correction today. The main 2605 contract fell 3.02% compared with the previous trading day's closing price, reporting 161,940 yuan/ton [1] - **Core Logic**: The exchange's regulatory intervention last night cooled the market sentiment, and long - position funds took profits. The recent sharp rise was due to the "rush to export" logic of battery enterprises before the VAT export tax rebate rate of battery products was lowered in April, and the high prosperity of terminal demand [1] - **Technical Analysis**: From the perspective of overall capital sentiment, it is still controlled by bulls, but the recent sharp decline in positions needs to be vigilant against the risk of trampling caused by the concentrated realization of long - position profit - taking. The 5 - minute level cycle of the current lithium carbonate main 2605 contract is a green line, blue ribbon, and green ladder, and the overnight 2 - hour level cycle is still a red ladder line, with the long - short dividing water level at 142,300 yuan/ton [1] - **Strategy Suggestion**: In the context of "strong reality, strong expectation", operate by buying on dips. Avoid short - selling at the top or chasing high directly. Find good entry positions based on the "First K Breakthrough Method" or "Three - Line Resonance Method" intraday [1] - **Follow - up Focus**: The actual progress of battery exports in the first quarter, the recovery of new energy vehicle sales data after subsidy extension, and the actual impact of geopolitical situation on lithium ore supply [2][6] Polysilicon - **Market Trend**: The polysilicon futures continued the downward trend today. The main 2605 contract fell 0.12% compared with the previous trading day's closing price, reporting 48,945 yuan/ton [3] - **Core Logic**: After the market supervision department interviewed the photovoltaic association and leading enterprises, the silicon material price will return to cost game. Currently, the supply and demand of polysilicon are both weak, and the industry inventory is at a three - year high, so the futures price may continue to be under pressure [3] - **Technical Analysis**: The position of polysilicon futures continued to decline. The 5 - minute level cycle of the current polysilicon 2605 contract is a red line, red ribbon, and red ladder, and the overnight 2 - hour level cycle is a green ladder line, with the long - short dividing water level at 58,300 yuan/ton [7] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Polysilicon may continue to be weak [8] - **Follow - up Focus**: The follow - up policy direction of "anti - involution" [9] Industrial Silicon - **Market Trend**: The industrial silicon futures fluctuated strongly today. The 2605 contract rose 1.39% compared with the previous trading day's closing price, reporting 8,755 yuan/ton [10] - **Core Logic**: Today's fluctuating rise was a short - covering rally from the perspective of capital sentiment, still controlled by bears. Fundamentally, the supply and demand of industrial silicon are both weak, downstream procurement is sluggish, and inventory is at a three - year high, lacking upward drive but with certain cost support. There is no substantial positive or negative impact to drive the futures price to break through the current fluctuation range, so it is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term [13] - **Technical Analysis**: The overall position of industrial silicon futures continued to decline. The 5 - minute level cycle of the current industrial silicon 2605 contract is a green line, red ribbon, and red ladder, and the overnight 2 - hour level cycle is a green ladder line, with the long - short dividing water level at 8,980 yuan/ton [13] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Currently in the middle of the fluctuation range, it is recommended to short on rebounds. In the long - term, pay attention to the transmission effect of polysilicon's return to cost pricing on industrial silicon. Intraday operations can refer to the Band Winner indicator in the 8:30 morning live broadcast [13] - **Follow - up Focus**: The follow - up policy direction of "anti - involution" [14]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of cotton remain strong due to supportive market factors, and the recent sharp correction in cotton prices is expected to result in short - term oscillations with a slightly upward bias [6]. - It is recommended to consider buying on dips for Zhengzhou cotton, while maintaining a wait - and - see approach for both arbitrage and options strategies [8][9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory First Part: Market Information - **Futures Market**: The closing prices of CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts increased by 50, 50, and 15 respectively, while the CY01 contract decreased by 395. The trading volumes of most contracts decreased, and the open interest of some contracts changed. For example, the trading volume of the CF05 contract decreased by 207,513, and its open interest increased by 5,210 [2]. - **Spot Market**: The CCIndex3128B price increased by 113 to 15,970 yuan/ton, and the Cot A price was 75.00 cents/pound. The prices of some other spot products also had corresponding changes [2]. - **Spreads**: In the cotton and棉纱 markets, there were various spread changes. For instance, the 1 - 5 month spread of cotton was 40 with no change, and the 1 - 5 month spread of 棉纱 was - 1,020, a decrease of 440 [2]. Second Part: Market News and Views - **Cotton Market News** - In Xinjiang, the number of ginned cotton factories that ended processing increased last week, and the processing volume continued to decline. The domestic lint market price has been rising during the acquisition and processing period this year, and processing enterprises generally made profits through the "buy - and - sell" model. The average purchase price of inland seed cotton last week was 6.78 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.17 yuan/kg from the previous week. As of January 11, 1,096 cotton processing enterprises had conducted notarized inspections, with a total inspection weight of 6.784 million tons [4]. - The average temperature in the main cotton - producing areas of the US decreased, and the precipitation remained low. The drought in the main cotton - producing areas of the US is expected to intensify in the first quarter [5]. - In December 2025, Vietnam's textile and clothing imports and exports performed well, with a 47% month - on - month increase in cotton imports [5]. - **Trading Logic**: The cotton sales progress is fast, and the downstream stocking willingness has increased. The fundamentals of cotton remain strong, and the short - term trend is expected to be slightly upward [6]. - **Trading Strategies** - For the single - side strategy, it is expected that the US cotton will oscillate within a range in the short term, and it is advisable to consider buying Zhengzhou cotton on dips [8]. - For the arbitrage and options strategies, a wait - and - see approach is recommended [9][10]. - **Cotton Yarn Industry News** - The overall price of pure cotton yarn is stable with a slight decline. The high - count combed yarn price is firm, but the overall market trading atmosphere is still light. The prices of some yarn products are provided, such as the OEC21S at about 16,600 yuan/ton [10]. - The all - cotton grey fabric market has partial stocking. Most manufacturers believe that there will be no significant improvement this year. The prices of regular varieties are stable, and the dyeing factories plan to start their holidays at the end of January, while some weaving factories will start their holidays in mid - January [11]. Third Part: Options - **Volatility**: The 10 - day HV of cotton increased slightly yesterday. The implied volatilities of CF601 - C - 13400, CF601 - P - 13000, and CF601 - P - 12400 were 6.7%, 11.4%, and 17.8% respectively [13]. - **Options Strategy**: The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton decreased, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended for options [14][15]. Fourth Part: Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the 1% tariff - based price difference between domestic and international cotton markets, cotton basis for different months, and the price difference between cotton yarn and cotton for different contracts [17][20][24][25].

Core Viewpoint - The document provides an overview of trading strategies and market analysis for various commodities, indicating a cautious approach with many commodities under "watch" status, suggesting potential volatility in the market [5][10]. Group 1: Trading Strategies - The trading strategies for various commodities include "wait and see" for rebar and hot-rolled coils, while short-term buying strategies are suggested for iron ore and stainless steel [5][10]. - The document categorizes commodities into different trends, with many showing a "watch" status, indicating uncertainty in market movements [5][10]. Group 2: Market Analysis - The analysis highlights that several commodities, such as coal and glass, are under "watch" status, reflecting a cautious outlook on their price movements [5][10]. - The document notes that the overall market sentiment is mixed, with some commodities like rubber and corn showing potential for short-term gains [5][10]. Group 3: Commodity Focus - Specific commodities like aluminum and cotton are highlighted for short-term buying opportunities, while others remain under observation due to market fluctuations [5][10]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring market trends closely, as many commodities are experiencing fluctuations that could impact trading strategies [5][10].

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The U.S. corn report significantly increased the production, leading to a weakening of U.S. corn prices today. However, the global corn supply pressure has decreased, limiting the downside space of U.S. corn prices. The in - quota tariff for U.S. corn is 11%, and for sorghum is 12%. The import profit of foreign corn has risen, with the February Brazilian import price at 2,122 yuan. [4] - The domestic corn market shows different trends in different regions. The spot price in the northeast is relatively strong due to low supply and farmers' reluctance to sell, while the price in North China is stable with increasing supply. The price difference between northeast and North China corn has narrowed. The wheat - corn price difference is still large, and corn remains cost - effective. The domestic livestock farming demand is stable, and the inventory of downstream feed enterprises is increasing, so the short - term spot price of corn is relatively stable. The market is currently concerned about the seasonal selling pressure of corn in the northeast before the Spring Festival and the inventory building of downstream enterprises. [4][6] - In the starch market, the number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has increased, and the corn spot price in Shandong is stable. The starch price in Shandong is around 2,750 yuan, and the northeast starch spot price is stable. This week, the corn starch inventory decreased to 1.1 million tons, a decrease of 25,000 tons from last week, a monthly decrease of 0.2% and a year - on - year increase of 21.5%. The starch price mainly depends on the corn price and downstream stocking. The by - product prices are still strong, and the spot price difference between corn and starch is low. Due to the strong corn price, the starch spot price is also strong, but enterprise profitability has declined. It is expected that the short - term 03 starch contract on the futures market will fluctuate within a narrow range. [7] - For trading strategies, the U.S. corn report is bearish, and U.S. corn is expected to continue bottom - oscillating. The 03 corn contract still has room to fall, and the 03 starch contract is expected to oscillate. For trading, the 03 U.S. corn has support at 430 cents per bushel. The short positions of 03 corn should be closed at night, and the 03 starch contract should be closed for observation at night. The 35 starch contract should start reverse arbitrage. [8][9] - For corn options, a short - term cumulative put strategy with rolling operations is recommended. [11] 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Data - **Futures Market**: - For corn futures, the closing price of C2601 is 2,300 yuan, up 2 yuan or 0.09%; C2605 is 2,275 yuan, down 2 yuan or - 0.09%; C2509 is 2,295 yuan, up 4 yuan or 0.17%. The trading volume of C2601 is 416, with no change in trading volume; the trading volume of C2605 is 140,645, a decrease of 23.82%; the trading volume of C2509 is 9,236, an increase of 16.90%. The open interest of C2601 is 8,433, a decrease of 8.20%; the open interest of C2605 is 627,188, an increase of 0.93%; the open interest of C2509 is 54,740, an increase of 2.74%. [2] - For corn starch futures, the closing price of CS2601 is 2,539 yuan, down 1 yuan or - 0.04%; CS2605 is 2,580 yuan, down 11 yuan or - 0.43%; CS2509 is 2,614 yuan, down 5 yuan or - 0.19%. The trading volume of CS2601 is 0, a decrease of 100%; the trading volume of CS2605 is 17,549, a decrease of 25.12%; the trading volume of CS2509 is 292, an increase of 26.96%. The open interest of CS2601 is 2,400, with no change; the open interest of CS2605 is 56,116, an increase of 4.42%; the open interest of CS2509 is 2,752, a decrease of 4.31%. [2] - **Spot Market and Basis**: - For corn, the spot prices in different regions are: 2,150 yuan in Qinggang, 2,180 yuan in Songyuan Jiji, 2,304 yuan in Zhucheng Xingmao, 2,276 yuan in Shouguang, 2,335 yuan in Jinzhou Port, 2,420 yuan in Nantong Port, and 2,460 yuan in Guangdong Port. The price in Jinzhou Port decreased by 5 yuan, and the price in Guangdong Port decreased by 10 yuan, while the others remained unchanged. The basis is - 145 yuan in Qinggang, - 115 yuan in Songyuan Jiji, 9 yuan in Zhucheng Xingmao, - 19 yuan in Shouguang, 60 yuan in Jinzhou Port, 125 yuan in Nantong Port, and 165 yuan in Guangdong Port. [2] - For starch, the spot prices are: 2,730 yuan for Longfeng, 2,700 yuan for COFCO, 2,700 yuan for Yihai (Heilongjiang), 2,860 yuan for Yufeng, 2,800 yuan for Jinyu, 2,900 yuan for Zhucheng Xingmao, and 2,750 yuan for Hengren Industry and Trade. The price of Zhucheng Xingmao increased by 20 yuan, while the others remained unchanged. The basis is 150 yuan for Longfeng, 120 yuan for COFCO, 120 yuan for Yihai (Heilongjiang), 280 yuan for Yufeng, 220 yuan for Jinyu, 320 yuan for Zhucheng Xingmao, and 170 yuan for Hengren Industry and Trade. [2] - **Price Spreads**: - For corn inter - delivery spreads, the spread of C01 - C05 is 25 yuan, up 4 yuan; the spread of C05 - C09 is - 20 yuan, down 6 yuan; the spread of C09 - C01 is - 5 yuan, up 2 yuan. [2] - For starch inter - delivery spreads, the spread of CS01 - CS05 is - 41 yuan, up 10 yuan; the spread of CS05 - CS09 is - 34 yuan, down 6 yuan; the spread of CS09 - CS01 is 75 yuan, down 4 yuan. [2] - For cross - variety spreads, the spread of CS09 - C09 is 319 yuan, down 9 yuan; the spread of CS01 - C01 is 239 yuan, down 3 yuan; the spread of CS05 - C05 is 305 yuan, down 9 yuan. [2] 3.2 Market Outlook - **Corn**: The U.S. corn report is bearish, but the global supply pressure has weakened. The import profit of foreign corn has increased. The domestic corn market has different trends in different regions. The northeast corn price is strong, and the North China price is stable. The price difference between wheat and corn is large, and corn has cost - effectiveness. The livestock farming demand is stable, and the downstream inventory is increasing. The market is concerned about the seasonal selling pressure in the northeast before the Spring Festival and the downstream inventory building. [4][6] - **Starch**: The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has increased, and the corn price in Shandong is stable. The starch inventory has decreased. The starch price depends on the corn price and downstream stocking. The by - product prices are strong, and the enterprise profitability has declined. The short - term 03 starch contract on the futures market is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. [7] 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral Trading**: The 03 U.S. corn has support at 430 cents per bushel. The short positions of 03 corn should be closed at night, and the 03 starch contract should be closed for observation at night. [8] - **Arbitrage**: The 35 starch contract should start reverse arbitrage. [9] 3.4 Corn Options - The option strategy is a short - term cumulative put strategy with rolling operations. Two option contracts are listed: C2605 - P - 2240.DCE with an underlying price of 2,275 yuan, a closing price of 33 yuan, and an implied volatility of 3.0; C2603 - P - 2200.DCE with an underlying price of 2,272 yuan, a closing price of 10.5 yuan, and an implied volatility of 4.0. [11] 3.5 Related Attachments - There are six figures in total, showing the northern port corn closing price, corn 05 contract basis, corn 5 - 9 spread, corn starch 5 - 9 spread, corn starch 05 contract basis, and corn starch - corn 05 contract spread from 2022 to 2026. [13][14][17]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PTA: Core view - Neutral; Spot - Cautiously bearish; Processing profit - Cautiously bearish [5] - PX: Core view - Neutral; Device change - Cautiously bearish; Import - Cautiously bearish; Processing profit - Cautiously bearish [6] - Ethylene glycol (MEG): Core view - Neutral; Month - spread - Cautiously bearish; Spot - Cautiously bearish; Import - Cautiously bullish [7] 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA: Supply changes little, demand has a seasonal load - reduction plan, supply - demand weakens marginally, processing fees remain high, short - term drivers are not obvious, buy on dips, and focus on cost changes [5][64] - PX: Supply - demand is okay, short - term PXN is above 350, both domestic and foreign supplies are increasing marginally, short - term valuation is not low, focus on capital preference [6][86] - MEG: Coal cost is strong, affected by Iran's geopolitics, expected imports may decline, near - term still faces inventory accumulation pressure, polyester has a production - cut plan starting mid - month, short - term range - bound operation [7][135] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs PTA Supply - side - Device changes: Weilian increases load, YS Ningbo, Dahua, and Hainan are under maintenance, Sichuan Energy Investment is under maintenance until late January, Dushan 3 is under maintenance, Ineos operates at 70% and plans maintenance in mid - January, and New Materials has a maintenance plan in January. Long - stopped devices are expected to continue maintenance in 2026, and planned maintenance in January - February is not low [49][64] - Inventory: As of January 9, PTA social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) decreased to 2.6 million tons, with polyester factory inventory and warehouse receipt inventory slightly declining, and current inventory pressure is not large [50] - Balance sheet: Near - term changes are small, with an increase in polyester's planned load reduction. The PTA processing fee of over 300 is not low. In January, production is 6.5 million tons, import is 0.2 million tons, export is 3.6 million tons, and total consumption is 5.977 million tons, with a surplus of 1.65 million tons [61][64] Demand - side - Polyester load: As of January 9, it was 90.8%, with cash - flow pressure and average inventory of about 12.7 days. From mid - January, polyester factories will gradually carry out maintenance, and the subsequent operating rate will decline seasonally. The load is estimated to be 91%, 88%, and 84% from December to February [19][41] - Downstream orders: Terminal demand is seasonally weakening. As of January 9, the operating rates of texturing, weaving, and dyeing decreased slightly to 72% (- 2%), 56% (- 3%), and 69% (-) [10] PX Supply - side - Device changes: Domestic load is 90.9%, Asian load is 81.2%. Shanghai Petrochemical slightly increases load, and Zhejiang Petrochemical plans to reduce load in mid - January. In Asia, FCFC in Taiwan reduces load, GS restarts in mid - January, Kuwaiti aromatics are under maintenance, and India's OMPL does not restart for the time being. Imports are expected to increase [83][86] - Balance sheet: In January, production is 3.39 million tons, import is 0.9 million tons, demand is 4.258 million tons, and inventory changes by 0.33 million tons. Supply - demand is in a loose balance, and PXN around 350+ has a relatively high valuation [85][86] Demand - side - Downstream demand: Demand orders are marginally weakening, weaving load is seasonally slightly declining, polyester load remains stable at a high level of 90.8%, and polyester inventory pressure is not large [6] MEG Supply - side - Device changes: As of January 9, the total MEG load is 74%, and the coal - based load is 79%. Domestic maintenance volume changes little. Chengdu Petroleum plans 10 - day maintenance in late January, while Fude, Sinochem Quanzhou, and Shenghong are under maintenance, and Zhejiang Petrochemical slightly reduces load. BASF's EG device is in progress. Coal - based Henan Energy Yongcheng is under 2 - week maintenance, Yankuang restarts, and Huayi increases load. Overseas, two 360,000 - ton devices of Taiwan Nanya are shut down, and devices in Saudi Arabia, Iran, Kuwait, and the US are under maintenance [102][121][135] - Inventory: As of January 12, the MEG port inventory in East China is about 802,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 77,000 tons. Inventory is moderately high. The arrival forecast is not low, and port inventory is expected to rise slightly. Polyester factories' raw material stocking days are 14.6 days, and downstream stocking remains stable [129] - Balance sheet: In January, production is 1.9 million tons, import is 0.6 million tons, total consumption is 2.37 million tons, and the surplus is 0.13 million tons. Overseas maintenance increases, import is expected to improve, but polyester is seasonally under maintenance, and ports are still accumulating inventory [131][135] Demand - side - Polyester load: As of January 9, it is 90.8%. Polyester has a maintenance plan starting mid - January, and the load is estimated to be 91% and 88% in December and January [19][135] - Terminal orders: Terminal orders are slightly weakening, and stocking days are about half a month [135]

2026 年 1 月 14 日星期三 研究员：纪晓云 从业资格：F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 昨日日盘锰硅主力合约 | SM2603 | 收于 | 5916，环比日盘开盘下跌 | 0.24%；硅铁主力合约 | SF2603 | 收于 | 5682，环比日盘开盘下跌 | 0.28%。 | | | 【重要资讯】 | 1、美国总统特朗普威胁对与伊朗有商业往来的国家征收 | 25%的关税。外交部发言人毛宁 | | | | | | | | | 回应表示，中方将坚定维护自身正当合法权益。 | 2、华北某大型钢厂现已启动 | 2026 | 年 | 1 | 月硅锰招标，本次计划采购数量 | 17000 | 吨；环比 | | | | 增量 | 2300 | 吨。 | 硅铁、 | 3、1 | 月 | 13 | 日临汾安泽市场炼焦煤价格暂稳，低硫主焦精煤 | A ...

2026 年 01 月 14 日 短纤：震荡偏强，多 TA 空 PF 持有 20260114 瓶片：震荡偏强，月差正套持有 20260114 钱嘉寅 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023476 qianjiayin@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2602 | 6490 | 6484 | 6 | PF02-03 | -16 | -18 | 2 | | PF | 短纤2603 | 6506 | 6502 | ব | PF03-04 | -58 | -60 | 2 | | | 短纤2604 | 6564 | 6562 | 2 | PF主力基差 | 24 | 28 | -4 | | | 短纤主力持仓量 | 102755 | 137103 | -34348 | 短纤华东现货价格 | 6. 530 | 6.530 | 0 | | | 短纤主力成交量 | 56354 昨日 | 75563 前日 | -19209 变化 | 短纤产 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings Macro Finance - Index futures: Bullish in the medium to long term, buy on dips [1] - Treasury bonds: Range - bound trading [1] Black Building Materials - Coking coal: Short - term trading [1] - Rebar: Range - bound trading [1] - Glass: Sell on rallies [1] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Hold long positions cautiously at low levels and conduct rolling operations [1] - Aluminum: Strengthen observation [1] - Nickel: Observe or sell on rallies [1] - Tin: Range - bound trading [1] - Gold: Range - bound trading [1] - Silver: Bullish [1] - Lithium carbonate: Range - bound oscillation [1] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: Adopt a low - buying strategy [1] - Caustic soda: Temporarily observe [1] - Soda ash: Temporarily observe [1] - Styrene: Range - bound trading [1] - Rubber: Range - bound trading [1] - Urea: Range - bound trading [1] - Methanol: Range - bound trading [1] - Polyolefins: Weak and oscillating [1] Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and cotton yarn: Oscillating adjustment [1] - Apples: Oscillating and bullish [1] - Jujubes: Bounce back from the bottom [1] Agricultural and Livestock - Pigs: Adopt a strategy of short - selling on rallies in the near - term contracts and be cautiously bullish on the far - term contracts [1] - Eggs: For the 02 contract, breeding enterprises can wait to hedge on rallies [1] - Corn: Be cautious about chasing highs in the short term, and grain - holding entities can hedge on rallies [1] - Soybean meal: Treat the near - term contracts bullishly on dips and the far - term contracts bearishly [1] - Oils: Soybean and palm oils are stronger than rapeseed oil. It is recommended to be bullish on palm oil [1] 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides investment ratings and trading strategies for various futures markets, including macro finance, black building materials, non - ferrous metals, energy and chemicals, cotton and textile industry chain, and agricultural and livestock. It analyzes the market conditions of each sector based on factors such as supply and demand, policy, and international situation, aiming to help investors make informed decisions. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - **Index futures**: In the medium to long term, considering the expansion of December PMI and the strong expectation of early - stage policy implementation at the beginning of the year, the market is expected to develop further. However, geopolitical and precious metal risks may lead to range - bound trading, which helps digest overbought pressure [5]. - **Treasury bonds**: In the short term, the decline momentum of the bond market has weakened, but in the medium term, it still faces supply pressure and rising inflation expectations. The bond market is expected to move in a range [5]. Black Building Materials - **Coking coal**: The number of coal - hauling vehicles has decreased, the inventory in ports is accumulating, and market demand has not improved significantly. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading [8]. - **Rebar**: The futures price is in a range - bound state. The static valuation is neutral, and the supply - demand pattern has weakened seasonally. The rebound space is limited, and attention should be paid to cash - and - carry arbitrage opportunities [8]. - **Glass**: Although the futures price rebounded last week, it is mainly due to short - term factors such as production line shutdowns and inventory reduction. The fundamental pattern has not changed, and it is expected to be weak. It is recommended to sell on rallies [9]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price has experienced a "roller - coaster" ride. In the short term, the upward momentum has weakened, but in the long term, there is still a shortage expectation. It is expected to oscillate at a high level, and the operating range may move down. It is recommended to hold long positions cautiously at low levels and conduct rolling operations [10]. - **Aluminum**: The over - supply of alumina will continue, and policy expectations are uncertain. It is recommended to strengthen observation. The upward pressure on aluminum prices is large, and the upward space should be viewed cautiously [12]. - **Nickel**: The production of nickel ore in Indonesia is expected to decrease, but the refining nickel is in surplus. It is recommended to observe or sell on rallies [13]. - **Tin**: The supply is tight, and the downstream demand is recovering. It is expected to oscillate bullishly. It is recommended to build long positions on dips [14]. - **Silver**: Due to factors such as the slowdown of the US economy and the increase in industrial demand, the medium - term price center will move up. It is recommended to hold long positions and be cautious about opening new positions [16]. - **Gold**: Similar to silver, the medium - term price center will move up. It is recommended to conduct range - bound trading and be cautious about chasing highs [16]. - **Lithium carbonate**: The supply and demand are in a state of balance. It is expected to oscillate in a range, and attention should be paid to the impact of mining permits in Yichun [17]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The cost is at a low level, and exports may increase. Although the current supply - demand situation is still weak, it is recommended to adopt a low - buying strategy and pay attention to policies and cost fluctuations [18]. - **Caustic soda**: There is short - term delivery pressure, and the medium - term may be supported by the improvement of the market atmosphere of related commodities. It is recommended to temporarily observe [20]. - **Styrene**: The price has rebounded, but the valuation is relatively high. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs and pay attention to cost and supply - demand changes [20]. - **Rubber**: The raw material price is strong, but the inventory in Qingdao Port is increasing, and the demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate in a range [21]. - **Urea**: The supply is increasing, and the demand is relatively stable. The price is expected to oscillate in a range, and attention should be paid to the start - up of compound fertilizer plants and the export policy [22]. - **Methanol**: The supply in the mainland is recovering, and the demand for methanol - to - olefins is high, but the traditional downstream demand is weak. Affected by the geopolitical situation, the price in some areas is relatively strong. It is expected to oscillate in a range [24]. - **Polyolefins**: The supply is still abundant, and the demand is in the traditional off - season. The price is expected to be weak and oscillating [25]. - **Soda ash**: The supply is in surplus, but the cost support is strong. It is recommended to temporarily observe [26]. Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and cotton yarn**: The global cotton supply - demand situation is improving. Although the price has adjusted recently, it is expected to be bullish in the long term. It is recommended to be cautious in the short term [27]. - **Apples**: The market price of apples in storage is stable, and the trading volume is not large. The overall market is expected to be oscillating and bullish [27]. - **Jujubes**: The acquisition of grey jujubes in Xinjiang is coming to an end, and the market is expected to bounce back from the bottom [28]. Agricultural and Livestock - **Pigs**: In the short term, the supply and demand may turn loose, and the price may decline. In the long term, the price in the second half of the year is expected to be strong, but it should be viewed cautiously. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies in the near - term contracts and be cautiously bullish on the far - term contracts [30]. - **Eggs**: The short - term price is expected to rise seasonally, but the supply is relatively sufficient, which may limit the increase. In the long term, the supply pressure still exists. It is recommended to hedge on rallies for the 02 and 03 contracts after the Spring Festival [33]. - **Corn**: In the short term, the price increase is not strongly driven, and it is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs. In the long term, the demand will gradually recover, but the supply - demand pattern is looser than the previous year, which may limit the increase. It is recommended to hedge on rallies for grain - holding entities [35]. - **Soybean meal**: The short - term M2603 contract is recommended to be bullish on dips, and the far - term 05 contract is recommended to be bearish on rallies [37]. - **Oils**: The performance of soybean and palm oils is stronger than that of rapeseed oil. It is recommended to be bullish on palm oil and conduct rolling position building. Attention should be paid to the results of the China - Canada negotiation from January 14 - 17 [43].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US corn report significantly increased the production forecast, leading to a sharp decline in US corn prices. However, the global corn supply pressure has weakened, limiting the downside space for US corn prices. The import profit of foreign corn is rising, and the import price from Brazil in February is 2126 yuan. The domestic corn and starch markets have different trends, with corn showing regional differences and starch being affected by corn prices and inventory changes. The report suggests short - selling 03 corn and 03 starch, and adopting a short - term cumulative put option strategy for corn options, while remaining on the sidelines for arbitrage [4][6][7][8][9][11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data 3.1.1 Futures盘面 - C2601 closed at 2298, down 3 (-0.13%), with a trading volume of 0, a 100% decrease, and an open interest of 9,186, a 0.12% decrease - C2605 closed at 2277, down 2 (-0.09%), with a trading volume of 184,628, a 10.50% decrease, and an open interest of 621,422, a 2.87% increase - C2509 closed at 2291, down 6 (-0.26%), with a trading volume of 7,901, a 11.98% decrease, and an open interest of 53,279, a 1.06% increase - CS2601 closed at 2540, up 2 (0.08%), with a trading volume of 100, an 80% decrease, and an open interest of 2,400, unchanged - CS2605 closed at 2591, down 5 (-0.19%), with a trading volume of 14,970, a 17.23% increase, and an open interest of 53,742, a 7.87% increase - CS2509 closed at 2619, down 7 (-0.27%), with a trading volume of 230, a 44.44% decrease, and an open interest of 2,876, a 1.20% increase [2] 3.1.2 Spot and Basis - Corn: The prices in Qinggang, Songyuan Jiajie, Zhucheng Xingmao, Shouguang, Jinzhou Port, Nantong Port, and Guangdong Port were 2150, 2180, 2304, 2276, 2340, 2420, and 2470 respectively, with price changes of 10, 0, 6, 10, 10, 0, and 10 respectively. The basis was -141, -111, 13, -15, 63, 129, and 179 respectively [2] - Starch: The prices of Longfeng, COFCO, Yihai (Heilongjiang), Yufeng, Jinyu, Zhucheng Xingmao, and Hengren Industry and Trade were 2730, 2700, 2700, 2860, 2800, 2880, and 2750 respectively, with price changes of 30, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0 respectively. The basis was 139, 109, 109, 269, 209, 289, and 159 respectively [2] 3.1.3 Spreads - Corn inter - month spreads: C01 - C05 was 21, down 1; C05 - C09 was - 14, up 4; C09 - C01 was - 7, down 3 - Starch inter - month spreads: CS01 - CS05 was - 51, up 7; CS05 - CS09 was - 28, up 2; CS09 - CS01 was 79, down 9 - Cross - variety spreads: CS09 - C09 was 328, down 1; CS01 - C01 was 242, up 5; CS05 - C05 was 314, down 3 [2] 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 Corn - The US corn report led to a sharp decline in US corn prices, but the global supply pressure has weakened, limiting the downside. The import profit of foreign corn is rising, and the domestic northern port closing prices are rising. The northeast corn spot is strong, while the supply in North China is increasing, and the corn price is stable. The price difference between northeast and North China corn is narrowing. Wheat and corn are being auctioned, and wheat prices are stable. The domestic breeding demand is stable, and the downstream feed enterprise inventory is increasing. The market is concerned about the seasonal selling pressure of northeast corn before the Spring Festival and the downstream inventory - building situation [4][6] 3.2.2 Starch - The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants is increasing, and the Shandong corn spot is stable. The northeast starch spot is stable. The corn starch inventory has increased this week, with the manufacturer's inventory at 112.5 million tons, an increase of 0.2 million tons from last week, a monthly increase of 2.1%, and a year - on - year increase of 25.1%. The starch price depends on the corn price and downstream inventory - building. The by - product prices are strong, and the spot price difference between corn and starch is low. Due to the strong corn price, the starch spot is also strong, but enterprise profitability is declining. The 03 starch contract followed the market up and then down, and it is expected that the short - term rebound space for the 03 starch contract is limited [7] 3.3 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: 03 US corn has support at 430 cents per bushel. Start short - selling 03 corn and continue to short - sell 03 starch - Arbitrage: Stay on the sidelines [9][10] 3.4 Corn Options - Option strategy: Adopt a short - term cumulative put option strategy and conduct rolling operations [11] 3.5 Relevant Attachments - The report includes six charts showing the northern port corn closing price, corn 05 contract basis, corn 5 - 9 spread, corn starch 5 - 9 spread, corn starch 05 contract basis, and corn starch 05 contract spread [14][15][16][18][19]

Core Viewpoint - The article outlines the standardized process for participating in polypropylene monthly average price futures trading, detailing the necessary steps, trading rules, and risk management measures. Group 1: Opening an Account - Participants must open an account through a futures company app or the "Futures Account Cloud" platform, requiring identification, a real-name bank card, and a handwritten signature photo, along with passing a risk assessment (C4 level or above) and video verification before submitting the application [1]. Group 2: Trading Rules - The trading unit for polypropylene monthly average price futures contracts is 5 tons per lot, with a minimum price fluctuation of 1 yuan per ton. Trading hours are set for day sessions from 9:00-11:30 and 13:30-15:00, and night sessions from 21:00-23:00. The first listed contracts are PP2602F, PP2603F, and PP2604F, with additional long-term contracts added after the last trading day of each month [1]. Group 3: Trading Instructions - Traders can select contracts through trading software and use limit orders or market orders to open long or short positions. Closing positions require a reverse operation [1]. Group 4: Margin and Fees - The basic margin ratio set by the exchange is approximately 7%, while futures companies typically charge 8%-10% (negotiable). The trading fee is 1 yuan per lot, with a reduced fee of 0.5 yuan per lot for hedging transactions. Delivery fees are currently waived until December 31, 2025 [1]. Group 5: Risk Control - The limit for a single contract trade is set at 10,000 lots, with a position limit of 1,000 lots starting from the 15th of the month prior to the contract month. Individual investors must close their positions before the delivery month [1]. Group 6: Considerations - The polypropylene monthly average price futures are settled based on monthly average prices, suitable for hedging against price volatility risks. However, liquidity may be lower than that of standard futures, and traders should be aware of market fluctuations and margin call risks. It is recommended to familiarize oneself with the rules through simulated trading before engaging in real transactions [2].