Core Viewpoint - The banking wealth management market has maintained a scale of 31.22 trillion yuan, showing a growth of 5.22% compared to the beginning of the year, despite challenges such as declining yields and regulatory pressures on valuations [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of the end of June, the banking wealth management market's scale reached 31.22 trillion yuan, slightly down from 31.5 trillion yuan at the end of May, which was a record high [1]. - The growth in the first half of the year was driven by multiple factors, including a bullish bond market that boosted fixed-income product yields and seasonal capital flows [1][2]. - The average annualized yield for fixed-income products was 2.84%, while cash management products had a near 7-day annualized yield of 1.43%, both exceeding the prevailing deposit rates [2]. Group 2: Yield Trends - Equity wealth management products faced significant pressure, with an average annualized yield of 4.1%, influenced by stock market volatility [3]. - In June, numerous wealth management products announced downward adjustments to their performance benchmarks, with some benchmarks falling below the deposit rates [3]. - The average performance benchmark for newly issued fixed-income products has shown a downward trend since early 2022, indicating a persistent decline [3]. Group 3: Regulatory Environment - Regulatory changes have imposed stricter requirements on valuation methods previously used by wealth management companies, particularly regarding smoothing mechanisms [4]. - The traditional business model of "high yield, low volatility" in banking wealth management is under significant pressure, leading to challenges in maintaining scale and net value [4][5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The banking wealth management market is expected to face dual pressures from interest rate cuts and valuation adjustments in the second half of the year [6]. - Wealth management companies are likely to innovate products focusing on low volatility and diversified themes to adapt to the changing environment [6]. - There is a growing consensus in the industry to expand equity-linked wealth management products, although challenges remain due to traditional clients' low risk tolerance [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant rise in the convertible bond market, with the China Convertible Bond Index reaching a ten-year high, driven by strong performance in the A-share market and a favorable investment environment for convertible bonds [1][2][3]. - The China Convertible Bond Index has seen a year-to-date increase of 7.18%, with a notable rise of over 22% since September 24, 2024, indicating strong market momentum [2]. - The convertible bond market is characterized by low volatility and low drawdown, attracting continuous inflow of new capital, which is expected to further enhance investment experiences [2][3]. Group 2 - Several funds tracking convertible bonds have reported positive returns this year, with the top-performing fund, China Europe Convertible Bond A, achieving a return of 13.11% [4][5]. - A total of 14 convertible bond funds have recorded returns exceeding 10%, showcasing the strong performance of this asset class [4][5]. - The performance of convertible bond ETFs has also been commendable, with returns exceeding 7% for the Bosera China Convertible Bond ETF and over 5% for the Haifutong Shanghai Investment Grade Convertible Bond ETF [5]. Group 3 - The supply-demand imbalance in the convertible bond market is a key factor supporting the rising valuations, with supply expected to contract while demand continues to grow [2][3]. - Historical data indicates that most convertible bonds exit through conversion to equity rather than actual repayment, suggesting manageable credit risk in the current market environment [3]. - The market's confidence in convertible bonds has strengthened due to reduced risks of delisting or default, further enhancing investor sentiment [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the insurance industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - As of the end of May 2025, the insurance industry achieved a cumulative original insurance premium income of 30,602 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.77%, with the growth rate further expanding compared to April [2] - The growth in premium income is driven by savings-type insurance, particularly dividend insurance, which has led to a continuous recovery in the industry's premium growth [2] - The anticipated reduction in the preset interest rate in the third quarter may activate short-term premium growth, benefiting the long-term decline in liability costs and improving the valuation of insurance stocks [2][9] Summary by Sections Premium Income Overview - The insurance industry reported a total premium income of 30,602 billion yuan by the end of May 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 3.77% [2] - Property insurance generated a premium income of 6,129.4 billion yuan, up 3.98% year-on-year, while life insurance reached 4,472.6 billion yuan, growing by 3.72% [2] Life Insurance Sector - The life insurance sector saw a monthly premium income growth of 16.7%, with traditional life insurance continuing to expand [3] - By the end of May, traditional life insurance premium income totaled 18,734.9 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.89% and accounting for 61.2% of total premium income, an increase of 8.2 percentage points since 2019 [3] Product Dynamics - Dividend insurance features a "low guaranteed return + high floating return" structure, allowing insurance companies to share investment risks with policyholders, thus reducing rigid repayment costs [4] - The floating mechanism of dividend insurance is expected to become a core choice for yield-driven clients, contributing significantly to the industry's overall premium income growth [6] Health Insurance Sector - Health insurance achieved a premium income of 3,879 billion yuan in the first five months of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 3.1% [7] - The growth rate for health insurance has slowed compared to the previous year due to product structure transformation [7] Property Insurance Sector - Property insurance reported a premium income of 7,805 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 5.2% [8] - The core driver for this growth is the high demand for automobiles, with passenger and new energy vehicle sales reaching 10,991,000 units (+12.6%) and 5,606,000 units (+43.9%), respectively [8]

Group 1: Domestic News - Xi Jinping emphasized the need to deepen the construction of a unified national market and promote high-quality development of the marine economy during the sixth meeting of the Central Financial Committee [2] - The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI for June rose to 50.4, indicating a return to the expansion zone, with new orders and production indices also showing improvement [2] Group 2: Bond Market Dynamics - The total scale of bond ETFs reached 383.98 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 175.78 billion yuan in the first half of the year, making it the most net inflow ETF category [3] - Chinese banks, particularly small and medium-sized ones, have been increasing bond investments, with the balance of bond investments for small and medium-sized banks rising to 46.41 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.6 trillion yuan since last year [3] Group 3: Policy Developments - New policy financial tools are being proposed to support technological innovation, expand consumption, and stabilize foreign trade, with a potential funding amount of 500 billion yuan [4] - The public REITs registration and settlement business guidelines have been officially implemented, aiming to optimize the business rules for public infrastructure securities investment funds [4] Group 4: International News - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell did not rule out the possibility of interest rate cuts in July, indicating that stable economic activity allows for further analysis of the impact of tariffs on prices and economic growth [5] - The US ISM Manufacturing PMI for June was reported at 49, indicating contraction for the fourth consecutive month, with significant declines in new orders and employment indices [6] Group 5: Commodity Market - International crude oil futures prices increased, with WTI crude oil for August rising by 0.52% to $65.45 per barrel, while natural gas prices continued to decline [7] Group 6: Financial Market Operations - The central bank conducted a 1.31 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation at a rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 275.5 billion yuan on that day [8][9] - Major repo rates fell significantly, with DR001 down 14.29 basis points to 1.367% and DR007 down 37.02 basis points to 1.546% [9] Group 7: Credit Market - The secondary market saw significant price deviations for certain industrial bonds, with "H1碧地03" dropping over 80% and "H1阳城01" increasing over 150% [11] - Several companies, including Evergrande and Zhengrong Real Estate, announced debt restructuring plans and financing updates amid ongoing financial challenges [12][13] Group 8: Convertible Bonds - The convertible bond market indices collectively rose, with the market transaction volume reaching 64.58 billion yuan, an increase of 6.32 billion yuan from the previous trading day [17] - Several convertible bonds are approaching early redemption conditions, indicating potential changes in investor sentiment [19]

分析师：王骅 登记编号：S0890522090001 分析师：宋逸菲 登记编号：S0890524080003 投资要点 权益市场回顾： 上周（2025.06.23-2025.06.27）上证指数上涨 1.91%，创业板指上涨 5.69%，恒生指数上涨 3.20%。银行板块在6月27日出现较大幅度回调，而科技股受海外映射及小米新品催化再度活跃。 权益市场观察： 银行调整背后：银行股回调主要受季末调表需求及获利回吐压力影响。年内银行板块涨幅显著，部分机构选择 季末止盈兑现收益。尽管市场此前关注保险资金在低利率环境下对稳定回报资产的配置需求，但银行低PB、高 股息特性对AMC等机构同样具备吸引力。 科技股再度活跃：科技产业指数在2月见到高点后，调整时间相对较长，上周科技板块相对活跃，除了"低位滞 涨"外，AI产业链催化频现。 军工热度提升：在近期"印巴"、"以伊"冲突的背景下，全球军贸需求持续深化我国军贸装备产的性能、性价比 优势。但是客观来说，军工出海仍面临多重挑战。 公募基金市场动态： 7月1日，信澳优势行业与华商致远回报将启动募集，至此全部26只浮动管理费基金开始募 集。 主动权益基金指数表现跟踪 主动股基优 ...

Market Overview - In June 2025, the stock market experienced an overall rise due to the easing of Middle Eastern tensions and multiple thematic catalysts, while bond market interest rates declined [4][7] - The average parity of convertible bonds reached a near-high level, with significant valuation increases for bond-like convertible bonds [5][7] - The China Securities Convertible Bond Index closed at 442.1 points on June 27, marking a 2.68% increase for the month [7] Convertible Bond Market Analysis - As of June 27, the arithmetic average parity of convertible bonds was 103.14 yuan, up 3.77% from the previous month, placing it in the 98th percentile since 2023 [7][23] - The average conversion premium rate for bonds in the price range of 90 to 125 yuan was 21.13%, also in the 48th percentile for 2023 [7][23] - The average yield to maturity (YTM) for bond-like convertible bonds fell below zero, indicating a shift in market sentiment [7][29] Recommended Convertible Bonds - The "Top Ten Convertible Bonds" for July 2025 include: - **Shenzhen Gas Convertible Bond (113067.SH)**: High balance and stable profitability, rated AAA [31][32] - **Hongcheng Convertible Bond (110077.SH)**: Stable operations and high dividend payout, rated AA+ [31][43] - **Weir Convertible Bond (113616.SH)**: Strong growth in consumer electronics and automotive sectors, rated AA+ [31][55] - **Jingce Convertible Bond (123176.SZ)**: Urgent need for domestic semiconductor testing equipment, rated AA- [31][66] - **Haoyuan Convertible Bond (118051.SH)**: Recovery trend in innovative drug development, rated AA- [31][79] - **Huakang Convertible Bond (111018.SH)**: Leading position in functional sugar alcohols, rated AA- [31][90] - **Bohai Convertible Bond (113069.SH)**: Steady growth in special alloy materials, rated AA [31][101] - **Dongcai Convertible Bond (113064.SH)**: Increased demand for high-frequency resin materials driven by AI server construction, rated AA [31][113] Industry Insights - The gas industry, represented by Shenzhen Gas, is experiencing steady growth in natural gas sales, with a 5.06% year-on-year increase in supply volume [36] - The environmental governance sector, led by Hongcheng Environment, shows stable revenue growth from water supply and treatment services, with a focus on expanding its business footprint [46] - The semiconductor industry, highlighted by Weir Group, is benefiting from increased demand in automotive electronics and consumer electronics, with significant revenue growth projected [58] - The healthcare sector, represented by Haoyuan Pharmaceutical, is positioned to capitalize on the recovery of innovative drug research and development [82]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing a significant "duration extension" trend, particularly driven by public funds aggressively purchasing long-duration bonds, leading to a notable compression in credit spreads for bonds with maturities over five years [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Trends - Recent weeks have seen a clear trend of extending durations in the bond market, especially in the credit bond sector, which has outperformed the interest rate bond market [2]. - As of June 27, the duration of bond funds has increased from approximately 2.5 years at the beginning of June to over 2.7 years [3]. - The total scale of credit bond ETFs has surged to 214.7 billion yuan, marking a 50% increase since the end of May, with notable growth in specific ETFs [4]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Risks - Despite the ongoing "bull market" in bonds, there are rising concerns about market overcrowding, with credit spreads nearing historical lows and leverage ratios approaching historical highs [5]. - Analysts express a generally optimistic outlook for the bond market, citing supportive fundamentals such as weak domestic demand and a favorable monetary policy stance from the central bank [5][6]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - It is recommended to maintain a focus on long-duration bonds to capitalize on the anticipated bull market following the quarter-end [7]. - Investors are advised to consider bonds with durations between 3 to 5 years, particularly those with higher yields, while remaining cautious of potential market volatility [8].

另一个是"资资产" 可能的再现。今年资产供给前置，一半以上的政府债 券净融资在上半年，如果不新加预算，政府债券净融资月均同比多增量将 从上半年 7000 亿左右下降到下半年的负值，同时实际利率上升抑制非政 府债券社融。因而下半年资产供给节奏将放缓。但资金供给充足，这决定 配置力量旺盛。居民持续增加存款、保险、理财、货基债基等低风险偏好 资产配置。而央行主动和被动的也会增加资金投放，一方面上半年同比多 增的财政存款会在 3 季度左右投放，另一方面，央行对流动性呵护增强， 5 月以来资金投放增加。如果后续央行开启国债买卖，那么市场将进一步 向资产"的方向演进。 证券研究报告 | 固定收益年度策略 gszqdatemark 2025 06 30 年 月 日 年度策略 踏着熟悉的节奏——2025 年债市中期策略 2025 年上半年债市大幅波动，外部扰动明显加大。24 年底利率开启快速 下行，这在 25 年初延续，10 年国债一度突破 1.6%的低位。而后随着资 金的收紧，以及春节之后银行抛券压力的上升，市场开始了大幅调整。10 年国债最高一度达到 1.9%附近，而仅 30bps 的调整幅度也是长债 2023 年以来最 ...

Core Viewpoint - The credit bond ETF from Bosera has shown significant growth and liquidity in the market, becoming a popular choice among investors seeking yield in a low-return environment [3][4]. Group 1: Performance Metrics - As of June 30, 2025, the Bosera credit bond ETF was priced at 101.1 yuan, with a 3-month cumulative increase of 1.19%, ranking 2nd out of 4 comparable funds [3]. - The ETF has achieved a record high in size, reaching 116.46 billion yuan, and a total of 1.15 million shares, both ranking 2nd among comparable funds [3]. - The ETF has demonstrated strong profitability, with a monthly profit percentage of 75.00% and a historical 100% probability of profit over a 3-month holding period [4]. Group 2: Liquidity and Fund Flows - The Bosera credit bond ETF has seen a net inflow of 30.52 million yuan recently, with a total of 302 million yuan in net inflows over the past five trading days [4]. - The trading volume has been active, with an average daily transaction of 5.606 billion yuan over the past week, ranking first among comparable funds [3]. Group 3: Risk and Fee Structure - The ETF has a maximum drawdown of 0.89% since inception, with a recovery time of 26 days [4]. - The management fee is 0.15% and the custody fee is 0.05%, making it the lowest among comparable funds [4]. - The tracking error for the ETF this year is 0.009%, indicating the highest tracking precision among comparable funds [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has shown strong performance since Q4 2024, significantly outperforming the A-share market, but faces challenges such as pulse-like rebounds and concentration in a few sectors, making it difficult for investors to achieve excess returns. However, precise timing and understanding of market rhythms can lead to substantial gains [1][2]. Industry Rotation Context - The market has experienced several rounds of rebounds driven by macroeconomic factors, including fiscal policy shifts and the rise of AI technology. Key phases include: 1. The "924" policy shift led to a rally in non-bank and real estate sectors, focusing on total policy [1]. 2. The emergence of "DeepSeek" post-Spring Festival revalued AI-related tech and internet leaders, driven by industry trends [1]. 3. The tariff situation in April spurred growth in new consumption and innovative pharmaceuticals, influenced by industry catalysts and liquidity [1][2]. Macro Environment Analysis - The current market dynamics are characterized by a combination of abundant liquidity and structural challenges, leading to index fluctuations and active structural trends. The macroeconomic backdrop includes: - Continued credit contraction in the private sector and limited fiscal stimulus, which restricts overall credit cycle expansion while supporting market stability [8][9]. - The emergence of new growth points, particularly in AI and new consumption sectors, which contribute to the active structural market [9][10]. Investment Strategy Insights - The investment strategy emphasizes the importance of focusing on sectors with stable or improving return on equity (ROE). Key insights include: - Stable returns are found in sectors like banking and utilities, which maintain consistent ROE, while growth opportunities lie in technology, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals, which have shown significant ROE recovery [18][19]. - The analysis of trading concentration, southbound capital flows, and valuation metrics is crucial for identifying sector rotation opportunities [22][23]. Trading and Positioning Dynamics - The analysis of trading dynamics reveals: - High trading concentration in new consumption and innovative pharmaceuticals, with recent declines in AI sector concentration [23][24]. - Southbound capital flows have favored new consumption and innovative pharmaceuticals, indicating strong investor interest in these sectors [32][34]. - The increase in short positions in certain sectors suggests a shift in investor sentiment, highlighting the need for caution in trading strategies [36][37]. Valuation Considerations - Valuation analysis indicates that while high-dividend sectors are under scrutiny, technology and new consumption sectors are experiencing valuation recovery. Key points include: - The AH premium threshold is set at 125%, which serves as a benchmark for high-dividend stocks, while technology and new consumption sectors are aligning with their ROE [44][45].