1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Hold" [4] 2. Report's Core View - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures markets, including precious metals, base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It assesses market performance, fundamentals, and offers corresponding trading strategies for each sector, with an overall cautious and diversified view on the market trends [2][3][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals Gold - Market performance: International gold prices denominated in London gold continued to rise, breaking through $4,100 per ounce [2] - Fundamentals: Multiple factors influenced the market, including US Treasury payment prioritization, China's trade data, and international political events. Domestic gold ETF funds flowed in, and there were changes in gold and silver inventories in different exchanges [2] - Trading strategy: The logic of de - dollarization remained unchanged. With the Fed's expected interest rate cut and a high - price short - term situation, there was a possibility of significant high - level volatility in the future. It was recommended to hold gold long positions and be cautious with silver long positions [2] Silver - Market performance: Speculative funds flooded into London silver, causing a short squeeze, but global supplies started to enter the market [2] - Fundamentals: Similar to gold, influenced by various factors, with changes in inventories and ETF holdings [2] - Trading strategy: Be cautious with long positions due to potential high - level volatility [2] Base Metals Aluminum - Market performance: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract decreased by 0.45% compared to the previous trading day, closing at 20,885 yuan per ton [3] - Fundamentals: Aluminum smelters maintained high - load production, and the weekly aluminum product operating rate decreased slightly [3] - Trading strategy: Temporarily observe, paying attention to the progress of APEC on November 1st [3] Alumina - Market performance: The closing price of the alumina main contract decreased by 1.26% compared to the previous trading day, closing at 2,820 yuan per ton [3] - Fundamentals: Alumina plants maintained high production, and electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [3] - Trading strategy: Expect prices to fluctuate weakly, temporarily observe, and focus on heating - season production restrictions and alumina plant shutdowns [3] Zinc - Market performance: The closing price of the Shanghai zinc contract decreased by 0.07% compared to the previous trading day, closing at 22,205 yuan per ton. There were changes in spreads and inventories [3][5] - Fundamentals: Supply pressure persisted, with rising production expected in October. Consumption showed no significant improvement, and inventories had different trends in domestic and LME markets [5] - Trading strategy: Sell on rallies [5] Lead - Market performance: The closing price of the Shanghai lead contract remained unchanged at 17,100 yuan per ton. There were changes in spreads and inventories [4] - Fundamentals: Supply increased as recycled lead smelters resumed production, while consumption showed some resilience. Lithium - battery export control policies were expected to support lead - acid battery demand [4] - Trading strategy: Operate within a range [4] Industrial Silicon - Market performance: The main contract showed price fluctuations, with changes in positions, open interest, and warehouse receipts [4] - Fundamentals: Supply was expected to be affected by the upcoming dry season in the southwest region. Social inventories increased slightly, and demand was supported by high - rate polysilicon production [4] - Trading strategy: The price was expected to fluctuate between 8,200 - 9,300 yuan per ton, and it was recommended to observe [4] Lithium Carbonate - Market performance: The main contract price decreased by 0.6%, and there were changes in spot prices and basis [4] - Fundamentals: Supply increased, with expected growth in October production. Demand for downstream products such as lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials also increased. The market was expected to maintain a tight balance [4] - Trading strategy: Observe the progress of Sino - US leadership negotiations. Consider short - selling on rallies in the far - month contract if there is no significant impact from lithium mine shutdowns [4] Polysilicon - Market performance: The main contract price decreased by 0.46%, with changes in positions, open interest, and warehouse receipts [4] - Fundamentals: Supply increased slightly, and industry inventories accumulated faster. Downstream product prices were stable, and there were declines in silicon wafer and battery cell production schedules [4] - Trading strategy: Observe the progress of the state - reserve purchase platform and consider spread trading or option strategies [4] Black Industry Rebar - Market performance: The main contract price decreased by 35 yuan per ton compared to the previous night - session closing price [6] - Fundamentals: Rebar demand was weak, and production might decline due to low profits. Plate demand was stable. Overall, the steel market had limited supply - demand contradictions but obvious structural differentiation [6] - Trading strategy: Hold short positions in rebar, with a reference range of 3,040 - 3,110 yuan per ton for the RB01 contract [6] Iron Ore - Market performance: The main contract price increased by 1 yuan per ton compared to the previous night - session closing price [6] - Fundamentals: Australian and Brazilian shipments decreased, and iron - water production decreased slightly. The first round of coke price increases was implemented. The supply - demand situation was marginally neutral to strong, and inventory accumulation was expected to be slower than the historical average [6] - Trading strategy: Observe mainly, with a reference range of 790 - 820 yuan per ton for the I01 contract [6] Coking Coal - Market performance: The main contract price decreased by 8.5 yuan per ton compared to the previous night - session closing price [6] - Fundamentals: Steel mill profits were marginally stable. The first round of price increases was implemented, and there was resistance to further increases. Inventory levels were low, and the futures were at a premium to the spot [6] - Trading strategy: Observe mainly, with a reference range of 1,110 - 1,170 yuan per ton for the JM01 contract [6] Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - Market performance: CBOT soybeans rebounded slightly overnight [7] - Fundamentals: Supply was expected to be slightly higher year - on - year, with a small reduction in US soybean production and an expected increase in South American production. Demand was differentiated, with increased crushing but weak export demand due to tariff policies [7][8] - Trading strategy: US soybeans were expected to fluctuate within a range. The domestic market was in a loose situation, with a tendency to fluctuate, and the medium - term trend was uncertain, depending on Sino - US tariff policies [8] Corn - Market performance: Corn futures prices were weak, and spot prices continued to decline [8] - Fundamentals: Bad weather in North China affected corn harvesting, increasing the risk of quality damage and storage difficulty. New grain was about to be listed, and downstream procurement was inactive. New - crop production was expected to increase, and costs decreased, putting pressure on prices [8] - Trading strategy: Futures prices were expected to decline with fluctuations due to new - crop listing pressure [8] Edible Oils - Market performance: Malaysian palm oil prices fell, digesting a bearish MPOB report and weak macro - environment [8] - Fundamentals: Malaysian palm oil production was in a seasonal decline, while exports increased. Overall, inventory continued to accumulate in September, with an expected seasonal decline in the future [8] - Trading strategy: It was difficult to trade edible oils unilaterally, and there were differences among varieties. It was recommended to consider reverse spreads for palm oil. Pay attention to production in the producing areas and biodiesel policies [8] Cotton - Market performance: Overnight US cotton futures prices fluctuated and declined, while international crude oil prices rebounded [8] - Fundamentals: International data from USDA was suspended. US clothing retail sales increased, and there were changes in domestic cotton supply and inventory [8] - Trading strategy: Temporarily observe, with a range - trading strategy between 13,200 - 13,600 yuan per ton [8] Eggs - Market performance: Egg futures prices were weak, and spot prices showed mixed trends [8] - Fundamentals: Post - holiday demand decreased seasonally, while supply continued to increase, resulting in a supply - demand imbalance. Egg inventories accumulated, and low vegetable prices dragged down egg prices [8] - Trading strategy: Futures prices were expected to decline with fluctuations due to weakening demand [8] Pigs - Market performance: Pig futures prices were weak, and national pig prices showed mixed trends [8] - Fundamentals: Seasonally, pig prices usually declined after the double festivals. Supply was expected to increase from October to November, widening the supply - demand gap and putting pressure on prices [8] - Trading strategy: Futures prices were expected to decline due to the supply - demand imbalance [8] Energy Chemicals LLDPE - Market performance: The main contract continued to decline slightly, with changes in basis and market trading volume. The import window was closed [10] - Fundamentals: Supply increased but at a slower pace, with new device launches and potential production cuts in some plants. Demand improved in the agricultural film season but was stable in other areas [10] - Trading strategy: In the short term, the market was expected to fluctuate weakly. In the long term, as new devices were put into operation, the supply - demand pattern would become looser. It was recommended to short at high prices or engage in spread trading [10] PVC - Market performance: The V01 contract price decreased by 0.6% [10] - Fundamentals: Supply increased with new device launches, demand was weak due to low downstream factory operating rates and a sluggish real - estate market, and social inventories reached a new high [10] - Trading strategy: It was recommended to short or engage in spread trading due to the weak supply - demand balance [10] PTA - Market performance: There were changes in PX and PTA prices and basis [10] - Fundamentals: PX supply was high, and PTA supply pressure was relieved in the short term but large in the long term. Polyester factory loads were high, and terminal orders improved structurally [10] - Trading strategy: PX prices were expected to fluctuate weakly, and it was recommended to short the processing fee of PTA in the far - month contract [10] Rubber - Market performance: The main contract price decreased by 2.73% [10] - Fundamentals: Raw material prices in Thailand changed, and there were changes in natural rubber inventories in Qingdao [10] - Trading strategy: The price was expected to be weak in the short term, and it was recommended to hold short positions cautiously or observe [10] Glass - Market performance: The FG01 contract price decreased by 3.6% [11] - Fundamentals: Supply was high, and inventory accumulated. Downstream demand was weak, but there were expectations of supply reduction [11] - Trading strategy: Observe due to the supply - demand balance and supply - reduction expectations [11] PP - Market performance: The main contract continued to decline slightly, with changes in basis and trading volume. The import window was closed, and the export window was open [11] - Fundamentals: Supply increased with new device launches, and demand improved during the peak season [11] - Trading strategy: In the short term, the market was expected to fluctuate weakly. In the long term, as new devices were put into operation, the supply - demand pattern would become looser. It was recommended to short at high prices or engage in spread trading [11] MEG - Market performance: There were changes in MEG spot prices and basis [11] - Fundamentals: Supply pressure was large after new device launches, and inventory was at a low level. Polyester factory loads were high, and terminal orders improved structurally [11] - Trading strategy: Observe in the short term due to macro - volatility and low inventory. In the long term, short at high prices due to inventory accumulation pressure [11] Crude Oil - Market performance: Oil prices opened higher and then fluctuated, with a weaker rebound compared to other commodities [11] - Fundamentals: Supply increased due to multiple countries' production, and demand decreased seasonally and was affected by trade relations [11] - Trading strategy: Continue to hold short positions in SC crude oil [11] Styrene - Market performance: The main contract continued to decline slightly, with changes in spot prices and trading volume. The import window was closed [12] - Fundamentals: Pure benzene and styrene inventories were at normal or high levels, and downstream demand was weak despite a seasonal increase in operating rates [12] - Trading strategy: In the short term, the market was expected to fluctuate weakly. In the long term, as supply increased, the supply - demand pattern would become looser. It was recommended to short at high prices or engage in spread trading [12] Soda Ash - Market performance: The sa01 contract price decreased by 0.4% [12] - Fundamentals: Supply was high in the fourth quarter, and inventory accumulated during the National Day holiday. Downstream demand from photovoltaic glass had high inventory days [12] - Trading strategy: Observe due to the supply - demand balance [12] Caustic Soda - Market performance: The SH01 contract price decreased by 0.2% [12] - Fundamentals: The purchase price of the main downstream decreased, inventory accumulated, and non - aluminum demand recovery was less than expected [12] - Trading strategy: Observe due to a neutral valuation and seasonal demand recovery [12]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Report's Core View - Gold and copper are both rated as long - term strong, with short - term and medium - term upward trends. Gold shows an intraday trend of being oscillating and strengthening, while copper is oscillating and stabilizing [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Performance**: International gold prices have been rising, with New York gold breaking through $4100 per ounce and domestic Shanghai gold rising above 930 yuan per gram [3]. - **Driving Factors**: The upward trend is driven by global monetary policy shifts, increased geopolitical risk aversion, and structural demand changes. Market expectations of the Fed's interest rate cuts, geopolitical risks such as Sino - US trade friction and the Ukraine crisis, and concerns about the US government's debt problem have led to a continuous influx of safe - haven funds. Global central banks' large - scale gold purchases and strong investment demand from institutions and individuals, as shown by the record inflow of funds into global gold ETFs in September 2025, are also important factors [3]. - **Short - term Outlook**: Sino - US trade friction may accelerate the upward movement of gold prices, with gold likely to be stronger than silver and the gold - silver ratio rising. The 5 - day moving average can be used as a short - term strength or weakness dividing line [3]. Copper - **Price Performance**: On Monday, domestic copper prices oscillated and stabilized, and the night - session prices continued to rebound, recovering from the decline caused by the short - term intensification of Sino - US trade relations [5]. - **Driving Factors**: After the market digests trade disturbances, copper prices are in a context of macro - economic easing and shrinking demand. Attention should be paid to whether the demand side can accept high copper prices [5]. - **Short - term Outlook**: Copper prices are expected to continue to be strong, and attention should be paid to the technical pressure at the post - holiday high [5].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock market has uncertainties in the short - term due to concerns about Sino - US tariffs, but the long - term strategy is to buy on dips as policy support for the capital market remains unchanged [4]. - The bond market may improve in the fourth - quarter supply - demand pattern and is likely to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect [6]. - Precious metals are in an accelerating upward phase in the short - term. It is recommended to hold existing long positions, and new long positions at current prices carry high risks [8]. - For non - ferrous metals, the prices of copper, aluminum, etc. may be affected by Sino - US trade relations and their own supply - demand fundamentals, with different price trends and trading suggestions [10][11][12][13]. - In the black building materials sector, steel and iron ore prices may be affected by Trump's tariff statements and their own supply - demand situations. The future trend depends on policy and demand recovery [31][33]. - In the energy - chemical sector, the prices of various products such as rubber, crude oil, and methanol are affected by macro factors, supply - demand fundamentals, and policy expectations, with different trading strategies [47][52][56]. - For agricultural products, the prices of products like hogs, eggs, and soybeans are affected by supply - demand relations, seasonal factors, and trade policies, and corresponding trading suggestions are given [76][78][80]. Summaries by Categories Macro - Financial Stock Index - **Market Information**: In September, passenger car retail sales reached a new peak. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rebounded significantly. COMEX gold futures exceeded $4100 per ounce, up 56% this year. JPMorgan will provide up to $1.5 trillion in financing for key US industries [2]. - **Strategy**: After the previous continuous rise, high - level hot sectors such as AI have shown differences. The short - term index faces uncertainties due to Sino - US tariff concerns, but the long - term strategy is to buy on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Monday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS had different changes. China's foreign trade data showed an increase in exports and a slight decrease in imports. Trump said the Gaza war was over. The central bank conducted a net injection of 137.8 billion yuan [5]. - **Strategy**: The recent escalation of Sino - US trade disputes is beneficial for the bond market's repair in the short - term, but the long - term trend depends on fundamentals and institutional allocation. The bond market is expected to oscillate in the fourth quarter [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold and silver futures rose. COMEX gold and silver also had certain prices. The shortage of silver in the London spot market drove up prices, and the inventory of COMEX silver decreased [7][8]. - **Strategy**: Precious metals are in an accelerating upward phase in the short - term. It is recommended to hold existing long positions, and new long positions at current prices carry high risks [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: The concern about Sino - US trade relations eased, and copper prices rebounded. LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic social and bonded area inventories changed [10]. - **Strategy**: Trump's tariff threat is uncertain. The supply - demand relationship supports copper prices. If the trade situation is a short - term shock, copper prices may remain strong [11]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Market sentiment recovered, and aluminum prices rose. The inventory of domestic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods increased, and the LME aluminum inventory decreased [12]. - **Strategy**: Sino - US trade relations are uncertain. Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate strongly due to factors such as domestic consumption and copper price drive [13]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Shanghai zinc index slightly declined, and LME zinc rose. Domestic and foreign inventories and other data were provided [14][15]. - **Strategy**: After the holiday, domestic zinc production was normal. The low registered LME zinc warehouse receipts pose a structural risk. Short - term, Shanghai zinc is expected to oscillate at a low level with increased risk [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: Shanghai lead index declined, and LME lead also fell. Domestic and foreign inventories and other data were provided [17]. - **Strategy**: The lead market has some changes in supply and demand. Due to Trump's tariff statement, short - term Shanghai lead is expected to oscillate at a low level with increased risk [17]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices oscillated. The cost of nickel ore was stable, and the price of nickel iron was slightly weak [18]. - **Strategy**: In the short - term, Sino - US trade friction may affect market sentiment, but the impact on nickel prices is relatively small. In the long - term, nickel prices have support. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and consider buying on dips [20]. Tin - **Market Information**: Shanghai tin futures declined. The supply of tin ore was tight, and the demand was mixed [21]. - **Strategy**: In the short - term, Sino - US trade friction may affect market sentiment, but tin prices are expected to remain high and oscillate due to supply - demand balance and seasonal demand [21]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The spot index of carbonate lithium was stable, and the futures price declined slightly [22]. - **Strategy**: Affected by macro news, carbonate lithium prices are expected to oscillate weakly. Attention should be paid to macro environment changes and demand expectations [22]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index declined. The spot price in Shandong decreased, and the import window was close to closing [24]. - **Strategy**: The short - term ore price has support, but the alumina smelting capacity is in surplus. It is recommended to wait and see, focusing on supply - side policies and Fed policies [25]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless - steel futures price declined, and the spot price also decreased. The inventory increased after the holiday [26]. - **Strategy**: After the holiday, the inventory increased, and the terminal consumption was weak. The market is expected to trend weakly [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The AD2511 contract of cast aluminum alloy declined. The inventory decreased slightly, and the trading was light [27]. - **Strategy**: The cost - side aluminum price rebounded, but the increase in warehouse receipts puts pressure on the price [28][29]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures declined. The inventory and spot prices also changed [31]. - **Strategy**: Trump's tariff statement may impact the steel market. The demand during the National Day holiday was weak. The future trend depends on policy and demand recovery [31]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron - ore futures price rose. The spot price and basis were provided [32]. - **Strategy**: The supply of iron ore decreased seasonally, and the demand was relatively stable. The future trend depends on downstream demand and trade policies [33][34]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The glass futures price declined, and the inventory increased. The soda - ash futures price rose slightly, and the inventory also increased [35][36]. - **Strategy**: Glass prices are expected to oscillate narrowly, and soda - ash prices are expected to trend weakly due to supply - demand imbalance [35][36]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon futures declined. The spot prices and basis were provided [37]. - **Strategy**: The black - building materials sector may first decline and then rise. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are likely to follow the sector's trend [39][40]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The industrial - silicon futures price rose, and the polysilicon futures price declined. The supply - demand and inventory data were provided [41][44]. - **Strategy**: Industrial - silicon prices may rise in the long - term due to supply reduction and cost support. Polysilicon prices are expected to adjust technically in the short - term [43][45]. Energy - Chemical Rubber - **Market Information**: Due to the US tariff statement, global risk - asset prices declined. The rubber market has different views on supply and demand [47][48]. - **Strategy**: The rubber price has broken down in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see or operate short - term. A hedging strategy is also suggested [51]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude - oil and refined - oil futures prices declined. China's crude - oil and refined - oil inventory data changed [52]. - **Strategy**: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared, oil prices should not be overly bearish in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see and test OPEC's export - support willingness [53]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Methanol prices in different regions changed. The basis and 1 - 5 spread also changed [54]. - **Strategy**: The methanol market has supply - demand pressure, but the short - term downward space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [56]. Urea - **Market Information**: Urea prices in different regions declined. The basis and 1 - 5 spread changed [57]. - **Strategy**: After the holiday, the urea market has supply - demand pressure. It is recommended to wait and see at low prices [57]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene changed. The supply - demand and inventory data were provided [58]. - **Strategy**: The BZN spread has room for upward repair. Styrene prices may stop falling due to inventory reduction [59]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC futures price declined. The cost, supply - demand, and inventory data were provided [60][61]. - **Strategy**: The PVC market has a supply - demand imbalance. It is recommended to consider short - selling opportunities in the medium - term [62]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The ethylene - glycol futures price rose. The supply - demand and inventory data were provided [63]. - **Strategy**: The ethylene - glycol market is expected to accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies [64]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA futures price declined. The supply - demand, inventory, and processing - fee data were provided [65]. - **Strategy**: The PTA market has a short - term de - stocking pattern, but the processing - fee space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [67]. Para - Xylene - **Market Information**: The PX futures price declined. The supply - demand, inventory, and valuation data were provided [68]. - **Strategy**: The PX market is expected to accumulate inventory. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to terminal and PTA valuation changes [69]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The PE futures price declined. The supply - demand, inventory, and basis data were provided [70]. - **Strategy**: The PE price is expected to oscillate at a low level due to cost and inventory factors [71]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The PP futures price declined. The supply - demand, inventory, and basis data were provided [72][73]. - **Strategy**: The PP market has supply - demand pressure and high inventory. The short - term has no prominent contradiction [74]. Agricultural Products Hogs - **Market Information**: Domestic hog prices varied. Northern farmers were reluctant to sell, and secondary fattening supported prices [76]. - **Strategy**: The supply pressure is large in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to reduce short positions and consider positive spreads after the spot stabilizes [77]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices were stable or declined. The market had supply - demand pressure [78]. - **Strategy**: After the holiday, the egg market has multiple negative factors. It is recommended to be bearish in the short - term and wait for a rebound to short - sell in the long - term [79]. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: CBOT soybeans declined. Domestic soybean - meal prices rose, and the inventory decreased [80]. - **Strategy**: The domestic soybean supply pressure is large. It is recommended to sell on rallies in the medium - term and expect range - bound oscillations in the short - term [81]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: Malaysian palm - oil exports increased. Domestic oil inventories changed, and prices oscillated downward [82]. - **Strategy**: Oils and fats are supported by supply - demand expectations. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and consider buying on dips in the medium - term [83]. Sugar - **Market Information**: Zhengzhou sugar futures prices declined. Brazilian sugar production data were provided [84][85]. - **Strategy**: Brazilian sugar production data are bearish. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies in the fourth quarter [86]. Cotton - **Market Information**: Zhengzhou cotton futures prices oscillated. The spot price and downstream operating - rate data were provided [87]. - **Strategy**: Due to Sino - US trade conflicts and weak fundamentals, cotton prices are expected to decline in the short - term [88].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The A-share market showed a collective decline on October 13, 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.19%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.93%, and the ChiNext Index down 1.11%. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 2354.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 160.9 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1]. - Futures prices of various commodities showed different trends. For example, the CSI 300 Index fluctuated widely and closed lower; coke and coking coal futures prices trended weaker; Zhengzhou sugar futures prices declined; rubber futures prices decreased; soybean meal futures prices oscillated; hog futures prices were weak; palm oil futures prices continued to decline slightly; copper futures prices had an upward - moving center with intraday corrections; cotton futures prices had a certain change in inventory; log futures prices dropped significantly; iron ore futures prices oscillated upward; asphalt futures prices oscillated downward; steel futures prices might oscillate weakly; alumina futures prices were weak; and aluminum futures prices had limited upward space [1][2][3][4][6][7][8][9][10][12][13][14]. 3. Summary by Commodity Category Stock Index Futures - On October 13, the A - share market had a collective decline. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3889.50 points, down 0.19%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13231.47 points, down 0.93%; the ChiNext Index closed at 3078.76 points, down 1.11%. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 2354.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 160.9 billion yuan from the previous trading day. The CSI 300 Index closed at 4593.98, a decrease of 22.86 [1][2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On October 13, the coke weighted index oscillated weakly, closing at 1665.5, down 19.0; the coking coal weighted index was weak, closing at 1162.4 yuan, down 18.2. During the National Day holiday, coking coal prices were weak, with some domestic and imported coal prices falling. Coke had its first round of price increase. Supply and demand of coke and coking coal were affected by the holiday, with changes in production, demand, and inventory [3][4][5][6]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by factors such as the global sugar supply surplus and the decline in US sugar prices, the Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract oscillated downward on October 13. The sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the second half of September was expected to increase, and the sugar sales and inventory in Guangxi also changed [6]. Rubber - Affected by the resurgence of Sino - US trade disputes and the decline in Southeast Asian spot prices, the Shanghai rubber futures price oscillated downward on October 13. The total monitored natural rubber production in Malaysia in August decreased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the inventory situation also changed. The inventory in Qingdao showed different trends in bonded and general trade warehouses [7]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, the CBOT soybean futures rebounded slightly on October 13. The US soybean harvest was progressing actively, and the Brazilian soybean sowing progress was ahead of schedule. Domestically, the soybean meal futures oscillated on October 13. The import volume of soybeans in China was still high, and the cost support weakened. The market was affected by the Sino - US trade situation [8]. Hog - On October 13, the hog futures were weakly running. The supply of suitable - weight standard pigs was increasing, and the post - holiday consumption declined. However, the market was expected to stabilize and rebound after November, but the rebound height was limited by the over - capacity expectation [9]. Palm Oil - On October 13, the palm oil futures price continued to decline slightly. As of October 10, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory decreased slightly compared with the previous week but increased compared with the same period last year [10]. Copper - The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in October and the shortage of supply provided support for copper prices. The intraday correction was due to the Sino - US trade friction. The supply - side support remained unchanged, and the LME copper inventory decreased [10][12]. Cotton - On the night of October 13, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13235 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory decreased, and the machine - picked cotton price was in a certain range. The cotton harvest progress in different regions of Xinjiang was different [12]. Log - On October 13, the log 2511 contract had a large - scale decline. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged, and the import volume from January to September decreased year - on - year [12]. Iron Ore - On October 13, the iron ore 2601 main contract oscillated upward. The recent iron ore shipping volume decreased, the domestic arrival volume increased, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. The iron water production decreased slightly but remained high, and the steel mills had a certain replenishment demand after the holiday [13]. Asphalt - On October 13, the asphalt 2511 main contract oscillated downward. The asphalt production and shipment volume decreased, and the inventory decreased. The demand in the north was for rush - work, while the demand in the south was affected by rainfall [13]. Steel - On October 13, the steel futures prices showed different trends. The post - holiday steel market transaction was poor, and the market was affected by factors such as inventory increase, tariff events, and policy expectations [13]. Alumina - On October 13, the alumina 2601 contract closed at 2820 yuan/ton. The alumina enterprise operating rate remained high, the supply pressure increased, and the demand - side consumption increased slightly but the export volume declined, resulting in an oversupply situation [14]. Aluminum - On October 13, the aluminum 2511 contract closed at 20885 yuan/ton. The domestic electrolytic aluminum supply remained high, the demand showed structural differentiation, and the social inventory continued to accumulate. The upward space of aluminum prices was limited [14].

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index opened up by 0.31%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 0.56%. Most tech stocks increased, with SMIC rising over 2%, and JD Group and Alibaba both up over 1% [1] - China Galaxy's strategy suggests that short-term escalation in US-China trade tensions has led to a decline in investor risk appetite, resulting in a valuation correction for Hong Kong stocks. However, domestic policies aimed at stabilizing growth and medium to long-term measures to support the stock market are expected to gradually stabilize investor sentiment [1] - Current valuations of Hong Kong stocks are at a historically high level, and the market is anticipated to experience wide fluctuations in the future [1] Group 2 - The Guotai Junan overseas strategy team reported that foreign capital dominates most sub-sectors in the Hong Kong stock market, particularly in the internet, finance, and most consumer sectors. Conversely, southbound capital has significant influence in a few sectors such as telecommunications, coal and petrochemicals, military, and semiconductors, with notable pricing power in the semiconductor, broad consumer, and broad dividend sectors over the past two years [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Neutral [4][9] Core View - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot is strong, the domestic inventory is decreasing, and the tire operating rate is at a high level. The market has support below, and it is recommended to buy on dips [4] Summary by Directory Daily Prompt - The fundamentals of natural rubber show that supply is increasing, spot is strong, domestic inventory is starting to decrease, and tire operating rate is at a high level. The market has support below, and it is expected to buy on dips [4] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: Supply is increasing [4][6] - **Spot Price**: The spot price of 23-year full latex (non-delivery) decreased on October 13th. The spot price is 14,250, and the basis is -690, showing a bearish signal. The spot price is resistant to decline [4][8][6] - **Inventory**: The exchange inventory has recently decreased, and the Qingdao area inventory has decreased week-on-week but increased year-on-year. The Qingdao area inventory has shown small changes recently [4][14][17] - **Import**: The import quantity has rebounded [20] - **Downstream Consumption**: Downstream consumption is high. Automobile production and sales are seasonally rebounding, tire production is at a record high for the same period, and tire industry exports are at a record high for the same period [6][23][29] Multi-Empty Factors and Main Risk Points - **Likely to Rise**: Downstream consumption is high, spot prices are resistant to decline, and there is anti-involution in the domestic market [6] - **Likely to Fall**: Supply is increasing, domestic economic indicators are bearish, and there are trade frictions [6] Basis - The basis weakened on October 13th [35]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of soybean meal and palm oil futures are expected to be oscillating strongly in the short - term and oscillating in the medium - term [5][7]. - For soybean meal, due to the escalation of Sino - US trade frictions, the domestic soybean futures price is stronger than the foreign market. The expected tightening of long - term soybean supply supports the price of the 2601 contract [5]. - For palm oil, after the release of market risks, the price may stop falling and rebound despite the short - term fluctuations caused by factors such as the decline in international oil prices and the weakening of the industrial chain [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Meal (M) - **Viewpoints**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating strongly; Reference view: oscillating strongly [5][6]. - **Core Logic**: Affected by Sino - US trade frictions, the domestic soybean futures price is stronger than the foreign market. There is a procurement gap for the 12 - 1 January shipment, and the expected tightening of long - term soybean supply supports the 2601 contract [5]. - **Key Factors**: Sino - US relations, import arrival rhythm, oil mill operation rhythm, and inventory pressure [6]. Palm Oil (P) - **Viewpoints**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating strongly; Reference view: oscillating strongly [7][6]. - **Core Logic**: With the decline in international oil prices and the weakening of the industrial chain, the decline of palm oil futures prices has widened. After the release of market risks, the price may stop falling and rebound [7]. - **Key Factors**: Biodiesel attributes, Malaysian palm oil production and exports, Indonesian exports, tariff policies of major producing countries, domestic arrival and inventory, and substitution demand [6]. Soybean Oil (Not in detailed description but in overview) - **Viewpoints**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating strongly; Reference view: oscillating strongly [6]. - **Key Factors**: Sino - US relations, US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [6].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃早报 2025-10-14 每日观点 玻璃： 1、基本面：中美贸易摩擦或升温；近期沙河地区"煤改气"等反内卷、环保政策利好情绪有所升 温，供应端扰动因素较多；下游深加工订单整体偏弱，不及往年同期，地产终端需求疲弱；偏空 2、基差：浮法玻璃河北沙河大板现货1148元/吨，FG2601收盘价为1179元/吨，基差为-31元，期 货升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国浮法玻璃企业库存6282.40万重量箱，较前一周增加5.84%，库存在5年均值上方运 行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：宏观利空叠加玻璃基本面偏弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 2、风险点： "反内卷 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The market's concerns about the Sino-US trade situation have eased, with precious metal prices hitting new highs and copper prices significantly rebounding. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate strongly, while lead and zinc prices are expected to oscillate at low levels with increased risk volatility. Tin prices may maintain high-level oscillations, and nickel prices may have limited downside space in the medium to long term. Lithium carbonate prices are likely to oscillate weakly, and alumina prices suggest waiting and seeing. Stainless steel market trends are expected to be weak, and cast aluminum alloy prices are under pressure above [2][3][6][9][12][14][17][20][24][26][29] Group 3: Summary by Metals Copper - **Market Information**: LME 3M copper rose 4.13% to $10,802/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 86,520 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 50 tons, and domestic social inventory increased. The spot premium in Shanghai was 80 yuan/ton, and the import loss was about 800 yuan/ton [2] - **Strategy View**: Overseas copper mine production cuts and reduced domestic refined copper output tighten supply, supporting prices. If the trade situation escalates in the short term, copper prices may remain strong. The SHFE copper main contract is expected to trade between 85,800 - 87,500 yuan/ton, and LME 3M copper between $10,700 - $10,900/ton [3] Aluminum - **Market Information**: LME 3M aluminum rose 0.4% to $2,757/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20,975 yuan/ton. SHFE weighted contract positions decreased, and futures warehouse receipts increased. Domestic inventory increased, and the spot discount in East China remained at 50 yuan/ton [5] - **Strategy View**: With increased domestic aluminum water ratio, seasonal consumption recovery, and resilient exports, aluminum prices are expected to oscillate strongly. The SHFE aluminum main contract is expected to trade between 20,800 - 21,200 yuan/ton, and LME 3M aluminum between $2,730 - $2,790/ton [6] Lead - **Market Information**: SHFE lead index fell 0.23% to 17,102 yuan/ton, and LME 3S lead fell to $2,010.5/ton. SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,925 yuan/ton, and domestic social inventory remained unchanged at 3.58 tons [8] - **Strategy View**: Lead ore inventory rose slightly, and primary lead smelting started at a high level. Recycled lead smelting started at a low level, and lead ingot factory inventory increased. After the large-scale cancellation of LME lead warehouse receipts, structural risks increased. Short-term SHFE lead is expected to oscillate at low levels with increased risk volatility [9] Zinc - **Market Information**: SHFE zinc index fell 0.05% to 22,277 yuan/ton, and LME 3S zinc rose to $3,019.5/ton. SMM0 zinc ingot average price was 22,200 yuan/ton, and domestic social inventory increased slightly to 16.31 tons [10] - **Strategy View**: During the holiday, domestic zinc smelters continued production, and most downstream enterprises maintained normal operations. LME zinc registered warehouse receipts are at a low level, with structural risks remaining. Short-term SHFE zinc is expected to oscillate at low levels with increased risk volatility [11][12] Tin - **Market Information**: On October 13, 2025, SHFE tin main contract closed at 282,100 yuan/ton, down 1.48%. Domestic futures registered warehouse receipts decreased by 64 tons. Supply from Myanmar and Indonesia is tight, and the smelting start rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi decreased slightly. Downstream new energy and AI are booming, but traditional electronics and photovoltaic are weak. The "Golden September and Silver October" season has improved consumption marginally [13] - **Strategy View**: Short-term Sino-US trade friction may lower market risk appetite, but tin supply and demand are in a tight balance, and prices may maintain high-level oscillations. It is recommended to wait and see. The domestic main contract is expected to trade between 270,000 - 290,000 yuan/ton, and LME tin between $34,000 - $36,000/ton [14] Nickel - **Market Information**: On Monday, nickel prices oscillated. SHFE nickel main contract closed at 121,410 yuan/ton, down 0.63%. Spot market transactions were average, and nickel ore and nickel iron prices were stable. MHP coefficient prices were high due to increased downstream demand [15][16] - **Strategy View**: Short-term Sino-US trade friction may lower market risk appetite, but nickel prices were less affected due to limited previous increases. Recently, nickel iron prices weakened, and refined nickel inventory pressure was significant. In the medium to long term, US easing expectations and domestic policies will support nickel prices, and new RKAB approvals may be positive. Short-term, it is recommended to wait and see, and consider buying on dips if prices fall enough. SHFE nickel main contract is expected to trade between 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and LME 3M nickel between $14,500 - $16,500/ton [17] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: MMLC lithium carbonate spot index closed at 73,011 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. LC2511 contract closed at 72,280 yuan, down 0.63%. The average spot premium was -150 yuan [19] - **Strategy View**: Affected by external macro news, commodities are generally weak. Lithium carbonate is in the consumption peak season, and social inventory is decreasing, supporting prices. However, the resumption of Zangge Lithium's production eases supply concerns, suppressing price rebounds. Prices are likely to oscillate weakly. The LC2511 contract is expected to trade between 70,600 - 74,000 yuan/ton [20] Alumina - **Market Information**: On October 13, 2025, the alumina index fell 1.19% to 2,827 yuan/ton. Positions increased by 1.8 million hands. Shandong spot price fell to 2,86 yuan/ton, with a premium of 66 yuan/ton. Overseas FOB price was $324/ton, and the import profit was 4 yuan/ton. Futures warehouse receipts increased by 2.11 tons [22] - **Strategy View**: Ore prices are supported in the short term but may be under pressure after the rainy season. Alumina smelting capacity is in surplus, and inventory is accumulating. The opening of the import window may exacerbate the surplus. Fed rate cut expectations may drive the non-ferrous sector up. It is recommended to wait and see. The domestic main contract AO2601 is expected to trade between 2,600 - 3,000 yuan/ton, focusing on supply policies, Guinea's ore policy, and Fed monetary policy [23][24] Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: On Monday, the stainless steel main contract closed at 12,655 yuan/ton, down 0.98%. Spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi decreased, and social inventory increased by 7.97% to 105.36 tons, with 300-series inventory increasing by 5.09% to 64.85 tons [26] - **Strategy View**: After the holiday, social inventory increased significantly, but terminal consumption was flat, lacking the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season characteristics. Spot prices led by Qing Shan decreased, and market sentiment was weak. The market trend is expected to be weak [26] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: AD2511 contract fell 0.64% to 20,335 yuan/ton. Positions and trading volume increased, and warehouse receipts increased. The price of domestic ADC12 decreased slightly, and downstream was cautious. Imported ADC12 price decreased, and domestic inventory decreased slightly [28] - **Strategy View**: Market sentiment recovery drove aluminum prices up, stabilizing alloy prices. However, increasing warehouse receipts put pressure on near-month contracts [29]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-10-14 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：中美贸易摩擦或升温；碱厂检修量不及预期，远兴二期年前预期投产，整体供给处于 高位；下游浮法玻璃供给扰动较多，光伏日熔量延续下滑趋势，纯碱厂库处于历史同期高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1170元/吨，SA2601收盘价为1247元/吨，基差为-77元，期货升 水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存165.98万吨，较前一周增加0.50%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：宏观利空叠加纯碱基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、年内检修高峰期，产量预 ...