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黄金强势补涨
Zhong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-06-03 03:32
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Strong supplementary increase [1] - Silver: Strong oscillation [1] - Copper: Buy on dips [1] - Zinc: Range-bound oscillation [1] - Lead: Under pressure [1] - Tin: Under pressure [1] - Aluminum: Under pressure [1] - Nickel: Rebound under pressure [1] - Industrial silicon: Under pressure [1] - Lithium carbonate: Under pressure [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short term, geopolitical variables are large, and in the long term, the global trend of reducing dependence on the US dollar and the dual - easing trend of fiscal and monetary policies remain unchanged, and the bull market for gold is far from over. Gold and silver prices are expected to rise, with silver following gold [2][3]. - Due to geopolitical risks and supply - demand relationships, copper prices are expected to rise in the short - term with potential for long - term growth [1][5]. - Zinc supply is increasing while demand is weak, with limited upside potential in the long term [1][7]. - Aluminum prices are under pressure due to factors such as inventory and demand [8][9]. - Nickel prices face pressure on the rebound due to supply - demand games [10]. - Lithium carbonate prices are under pressure because of supply overhang and cost factors [11][12]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Tariffs change again, geopolitical situation escalates, and the price of foreign gold rebounds strongly, with domestic gold making up the increase [2]. - **Basic Logic**: Trump plans to raise steel import tariffs, and the Russia - Ukraine situation escalates. In the short term, geopolitical variables are large, and in the long term, the bull market for gold is far from over [2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: For short - term gold, go long on the futures market, and control positions for long - term investment. Silver will follow the upward trend of gold, with a short - term range of [8200, 8450] [3]. Copper - **Market Review**: During the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, LME copper first declined and then rose, and COMEX copper rose by more than 3% [4]. - **Industry Logic**: Overseas copper mine supply is tight, and there are potential risks such as soft squeeze - out of warehouses. The downstream demand is weak, and attention should be paid to the inventory depletion situation [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Shanghai copper may open higher and move higher. It is recommended to go long on dips with light positions. In the long term, be optimistic about copper. The short - term range for Shanghai copper is [77500, 79000], and for LME copper is [9500, 9800] dollars [5]. Zinc - **Market Review**: During the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, LME zinc rebounded and rose by more than 2% [6]. - **Industry Logic**: In 2025, the zinc ore supply is expected to be looser. The domestic refined zinc production is expected to increase. Downstream demand is weak, affected by the steel market [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: LME zinc's rebound may drive Shanghai zinc to open higher. In the long term, short on rallies. The range for Shanghai zinc is [22200, 23000], and for LME zinc is [2650, 2780] dollars/ton [7]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices are under pressure, and alumina prices are falling [8]. - **Industry Logic**: The overseas macro - trade environment eases. For electrolytic aluminum, inventory decreases, and demand is differentiated. For alumina, supply is in surplus, and attention should be paid to overseas ore disturbances [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: For Shanghai aluminum, look for short - term opportunities to short on rebounds, with a range of [19800 - 20500]. Alumina is expected to trade in a low - level range [9]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices face pressure on the rebound, and stainless steel is relatively weak [10]. - **Industry Logic**: The overseas macro - environment eases. The cost support for nickel weakens, and the supply pressure is obvious. Stainless steel is entering the off - season, and inventory pressure may reappear [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel, with a range for nickel of [118000 - 125000] [10]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2507 opened low and moved high, with significant position reduction and rebound [11]. - **Industry Logic**: The supply is in surplus. The upstream smelters have high inventory pressure, and the demand is weak. The cost of lithium ore is still falling, and the negative feedback cycle continues [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rallies, with a range of [59240 - 61000] [12].
通话完成,特朗普给中国带意外之喜,万斯通告全球:美国已经败了
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-02 03:35
Group 1 - The relationship between China and the US has deteriorated significantly since Trump's administration, with trade wars and pressures in technology and education failing to yield desired results for the US [1][9] - A recent phone call between US Deputy Secretary of State Rand Paul and Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Ma Zhaoxu indicates a willingness to maintain communication, which is seen as a positive signal despite no breakthroughs in trade negotiations [7][9] - The US has maintained high tariffs on Chinese goods, while China has implemented countermeasures, including restrictions on rare earth exports, demonstrating its resolve in trade disputes [11][15] Group 2 - Trump's initial confidence in winning the trade war has waned, as he expected China to reach out first, but it was the US that initiated the recent communication [5][13] - The recent phone call symbolizes a shift in the economic competition, suggesting that the balance of power may be tilting in favor of China [17] - Trump's recent policies, including tax reforms that eliminate clean energy subsidies, may inadvertently benefit China by increasing market opportunities in traditional energy sectors [24][27] Group 3 - The US's recent educational policy changes, particularly the ban on international students at Harvard, could lead to a talent drain from the US to China, as many students may seek opportunities elsewhere [30][38] - The acknowledgment of the US's declining global dominance by Vice President Mike Pence reflects a broader recognition of the changing international landscape, with challenges from countries like China and Russia [45][53] - The US's interventionist foreign policy is being questioned, and there is a call for a shift in strategy to address current global challenges effectively [55][57]
价格回落势头渐止——5月PMI数据解读
CAITONG SECURITIES· 2025-06-01 02:15
宏观月报 / 2025.05.31 ——5 月 PMI 数据解读 证券研究报告 分析师 陈兴 SAC 证书编号:S0160523030002 chenxing@ctsec.com 分析师 马骏 SAC 证书编号:S0160523080004 majun@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《PMI 节前还比较弱——1 月 PMI 数 据解读》 2024-01-31 2. 《PMI 节后表现如何?——2 月 PMI 数据解读》 2024-03-01 3. 《出口带动需求回暖——3 月 PMI 数 据解读》 2024-03-31 4. 《生产高位扩张,价格持续上行—— 4 月 PMI 数据解读》 2024-04-31 5. 《成本压力上升——5 月 PMI 数据解 读》 2024-05-31 6. 《PMI 还是弱了些——6 月 PMI 数据 解读》 2024-06-30 7. 《出口订单创同期新高——7 月 PMI 数据解读》 2024-07-31 8. 《外需仍有回升——8 月 PMI 数据解 读》 2024-08-31 9. 《PMI 再现背离,经济景气如何?— —9 月 PMI 数据解读》 2024-09 ...
价格回落势头渐止——5月PMI数据解读【陈兴团队•财通宏观】
陈兴宏观研究· 2025-05-31 08:13
Core Viewpoint - The national manufacturing PMI for May recorded at 49.5%, showing a 0.5 percentage point increase from the previous month, indicating a near median level for the same period over the past five years [1][3][4]. Demand and Supply - Both demand and supply sides have improved, with external demand rebounding more strongly than internal demand. The new order index rose to 49.8%, up 0.6 percentage points, while the new export order index increased by 2.8 percentage points to 47.5% [6][12]. - The production index rose by 0.9 percentage points to 50.7%, indicating a recovery in manufacturing production [6][10]. Industry Performance - The equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors showed significant growth in new orders, with indices above 52%. Consumer goods manufacturing also saw a stable increase, with new export orders rising over 6 percentage points into the expansion zone [1][8]. - However, some industries, such as textiles and non-ferrous metal processing, reported new order and production indices below the critical point, indicating insufficient release of production and demand [6][8]. Price Trends - The decline in price indices has narrowed significantly, with raw material prices and factory gate prices both decreasing by only 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month. This indicates that the ability of companies to pass on costs has not yet recovered [10][12]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index recorded at 50.3%, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points but still above the critical point. The construction sector showed a business activity index of 51%, indicating ongoing expansion [12][13]. - The service sector's business activity index rose to 50.2%, reflecting a slight recovery driven by holiday consumption demand [13].
关税战非典型案例:90天不着急备货,将淡化美国市场
和讯· 2025-05-29 09:33
文/高歌 李力是一家贸易企业的负责人,他的公司位于华南区域,主营业务是向美国等发达经济体市场出口消 费电子产品。不同于To B企业对于关税的敏感度,李力感觉关税摩擦对于他所在的公司影响有限。 5月23日,李力表示:" 关税 在我们的成本中只占一小部分 , B端的模式是国外的人来这里大批量 采购货物,再分销给小B,关税提升会有一定的影响,我们是直接做C端的,影响不大。" 李力拆解了成本构成:运费、采购成本、关税以及美国当地的物流费用。其中关税并不占据绝大部 分。 目前关税价格尚未体现在产品的终端售价上,并且在可预期的未来,他所在的行业短时间内关 税提升的价格也不会显现在同类产品的价格之上,除非头部企业开始提价。 40天前,美所谓"对等关税"引发贸易震荡,美对华关税在短时间内接连攀升,一度高达145%。随 后中美日内瓦经贸会谈的落定为此轮关税摩擦摁下暂缓键。 5月12日公布的联合声明显示,美方承诺尽快取消4月8日和9日对华加征的91%非理性高额关税,同 时将34%所谓"对等关税"中24%的部分暂缓90天。 下一步中美经贸谈判迎来缓冲期。 李力在过去一个月的时间中在外贸一线亲历上述转变,他只觉得一切都"太快了"。他 ...
研客专栏 | 氧化铝与电解铝市场展望:不确定性加大与应对之策
对冲研投· 2025-05-28 12:49
文 | 江 露 来 源 | C F C 金 属 研 究 编 辑 | 杨 兰 审 核 | 浦 电 路 交 易 员 正 文 | 黄金 | 白银 | 铜 | 铝 | 氧化铝 | 锌 | 镇 | 锡 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 27. 0% | 9.3% | 4.9% | -1.5% | -35. 6% | -12. 8% | -0.7% | 6.7% | | 碳酸锂 | 工业研 | 多晶硅 | 硅铁/锰硅 | 螺纹钢 | 热卷 | 煤焦 | 铁矿石 | | -15. 2% | -24. 1% | -15. 4% | -12. 4%/- 5.3% | -8.2% | -7.4% | -23.9%/- 19. 4% | -10. 7% | 2.1 宏观展望:康波视角下当前周期判断 ◆ 目前已步入萧条:衰退时点为2009年,萧条转换点在2019年 图表:康波周期的划分 | 康波 | 繁荣 | 裹退 | 萧条 | 复苏 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 第一轮(纺织工业和 | 1782~1802 | 181 ...
英国正式取代中国,特朗普急了,不等中方电话,直言愿意飞去北京
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-26 08:08
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant shift in Trump's attitude towards China following the consensus on tax reductions, indicating a growing urgency to engage with China despite previous aggressive stances [1][3]. - Trump's previous confidence in China's willingness to negotiate has turned into a desperate need for dialogue, as he seeks to visit Beijing and has expressed a desire for direct talks [1][3]. - The article suggests that the pressure on Trump has increased due to the adverse effects of the trade war on the U.S. economy, leading him to seek a meeting with China to secure favorable conditions before losing leverage [3][5]. Group 2 - The article notes that China has reduced its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds, selling $18.9 billion in March, which has resulted in China losing its position as the second-largest holder of U.S. debt, now held by the United Kingdom [4][5]. - The shift in debt ownership from China to the UK raises concerns about the stability of the U.S. economy, as both Japan and the UK are struggling to manage their roles in holding U.S. debt [5][6]. - Trump's contradictory approach towards China is evident, as he seeks assistance while simultaneously attempting to contain China's growth, reflecting a divided strategy in U.S.-China relations [7][8].
中方手里不止一张王炸,不怕特朗普翻脸不认人,再打美国还是输
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-26 04:36
Group 1: Trade Negotiations - Recent US-China trade negotiations have made some progress, with both sides agreeing to revert tariffs to pre-Trump's "reciprocal tariff" policy levels [1] - However, there are indications that Trump may change his stance and propose new tariffs, which aligns with his historically unpredictable behavior [1][3] - China has been preparing for potential changes in negotiations, given the long-standing nature of US-China trade tensions that began during Trump's first term [1][3] Group 2: Rare Earth Resources - Rare earth resources have become a significant topic in international trade, particularly in the context of US-China relations [5] - These resources are scarce and non-renewable, widely used in advanced technology, and have been dubbed "the mother of new materials" and "industrial vitamins" [6] - Rare earth elements are essential in various applications, including enhancing the strength and lifespan of steel, which is crucial in military applications [8] Group 3: China's Dominance in Rare Earths - China holds the world's largest rare earth reserves, accounting for approximately 25% of global reserves, and produces about 80% of the world's rare earth products [11][12] - The global rare earth market is largely dominated by China, with around 70% of its exports going overseas, indicating a high level of dependency from other countries [12] - China's southern regions contain over 70% of the world's heavy rare earth resources, providing it with a strategic advantage [12] Group 4: US Dependency and Response - The US relies heavily on China for rare earth compounds and metals, with over 70% sourced from China in recent years [14] - The US has not yet mastered the technology for separating heavy rare earths, which is critical for its defense industry [14][16] - In response to this dependency, the Trump administration initiated a domestic rare earth supply chain restructuring plan, but this requires significant investment and time [17][19] Group 5: Strategic Implications - Rare earth resources have become a key bargaining chip for China in trade negotiations, with China showing no willingness to make concessions [21] - China's strong position in rare earth resources gives it confidence in dealing with the unpredictable nature of US trade policies [21]
国泰海通|海外策略:贸易摩擦缓和期资产价格如何走
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the complexities and long-term nature of the China-U.S. trade friction from 2018 to 2019, highlighting its significant impact on asset prices and the sensitivity of markets to trade-related signals [1][3]. Summary by Sections Trade Friction Overview - The China-U.S. trade friction lasted nearly two years, experiencing four distinct periods of easing, each with varying durations and outcomes [1][2]. Asset Price Behavior - Three key patterns in asset price movements during the trade friction are identified: 1. Long-term asset price trends are primarily driven by fundamentals, with the Chinese stock market closely linked to domestic economic conditions [1][3]. 2. Markets react more sensitively to negative signals from trade negotiations, while responses to easing signals are relatively muted [1][3]. 3. Different asset classes exhibit varying sensitivities to trade friction, with stocks and currencies being more responsive compared to the bond market, which is influenced more by domestic policies and fundamentals [1][3]. Specific Easing Periods - **May 2018**: A joint statement was released, but the easing lasted only 10 days. U.S. stocks showed volatility, while Chinese stocks faced downward pressure due to tariffs and financial deleveraging [2]. - **December 2018**: Following a leaders' meeting, tariffs were not escalated, leading to a four-month easing period. A-shares and H-shares initially rebounded but later fell again until a central bank rate cut in January 2019 [2]. - **June 2019**: A trade agreement was reached, resulting in a one-month easing period. However, subsequent trade tensions led to declines in both U.S. and Chinese stock markets [2]. - **October 2019**: A phase one trade agreement was achieved, causing initial stock market gains, but the bond market reacted less significantly [2].
宏观经济宏观周报:中美贸易摩擦缓和推动工业品价格回暖-20250525
Guoxin Securities· 2025-05-25 11:59
Economic Growth - The Guosen High-Frequency Macro Diffusion Index A turned negative, indicating a decline in economic momentum[1] - Index B decreased, with investment and real estate sectors showing a downturn while consumer sector remained stable[1] - Seasonal analysis shows Index B typically rises by an average of 0.17 weekly post-Spring Festival, but this week it fell by 0.43, underperforming historical averages[1] Price Trends - Food prices are expected to decline by approximately -1.0% month-on-month in May, while non-food prices are projected to decrease by -0.2%, leading to an overall CPI decline of -0.4%[2] - The PPI is anticipated to drop by -0.2% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decrease of -3.1%[2] Market Predictions - Current domestic interest rates are low, while the Shanghai Composite Index is high, suggesting a potential rise in the ten-year government bond yield and a decline in the Shanghai Composite Index next week[1][19] - The predicted ten-year government bond yield for the week of May 30, 2025, is 2.28%, while the Shanghai Composite Index is forecasted to be 3,099.44[20]