Group 1: Industrial Sector - Midstream production is recovering, with daily pig iron output and asphalt operating rates declining, while most chemical products see an increase in operating rates[2] - The operating rates for polyester in textiles and tire production have rebounded slightly[2] - The South China industrial price index fell by 0.7%, with black raw materials down 3.0% and non-ferrous metals down 0.1%[2] Group 2: Real Estate - New home sales in 30 major cities decreased by 38.6% year-on-year as of November 7, showing a decline compared to the previous month[2] - The second-hand housing listing price index fell by 0.81% in the last four weeks, a slight increase in the decline compared to the previous value[2] Group 3: Domestic Demand - In October, retail sales of passenger cars reached 2.387 million units, a year-on-year increase of 6%[2] - Major home appliance retail sales fell by 17% year-on-year as of October 17, a decline of 13.4 percentage points from the previous value[2] - Domestic flights increased by 2.3% year-on-year as of November 7, with the Baidu migration index up by 10.9%[2] Group 4: External Demand - Port cargo throughput increased by 1.9% year-on-year as of November 2, with container throughput up by 8.2%[2] - The export container freight index rose by 3.6% week-on-week, while Shanghai and Ningbo's export container freight rates turned from rising to falling[2] Group 5: Price Trends - The agricultural product wholesale price index rose by 2.2% week-on-week, outperforming seasonal trends, particularly in vegetables and pork[2] - Industrial product prices mostly declined, with rebar futures down 2.3% and spot prices down 1.0%[2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, the A - share market lacks a clear upward trend due to a relative policy window period, with trading volume remaining low and stock indices continuing to fluctuate. The continuous shutdown risk of the US government increases the adjustment pressure on US stocks and impacts the domestic equity market, but the intraday trend may be repaired by domestic liquidity and market sentiment, providing space for short - term stock index operations. In the medium - to - long - term, the market is expected to have further upward potential, but the progress will be gradual. New driving factors such as the further release of overseas liquidity or substantial improvement signals in the domestic fundamentals will be the key to driving the market up. The investment view is to choose the opportunity to go long [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Influencing Factors and Their Impact on Stock Indices** - **Economic and Corporate Earnings**: In October, affected by tariff policies, China's exports unexpectedly turned negative for the first time since February 2025. Exports to non - ASEAN economies were generally poor, and labor - intensive products and some mechanical and electrical products saw significant declines. The "14th Five - Year Plan" has been implemented, and the domestic policy is in a relatively quiet period, with a negative impact on stock indices [3]. - **Macro Policy**: The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China proposed seven major economic development goals and twelve major deployments for the next five years, with a neutral - to - positive impact on stock indices [3]. - **Overseas Factors**: The continuous shutdown of the US government has led to a decline in US stocks from their highs, which has a certain impact on China's technology sector, with a neutral - to - negative impact on stock indices [3]. - **Liquidity**: The average daily trading volume of A - shares last week decreased compared with the previous week. The current macro - level is in a policy window period, and the A - share market lacks a clear upward main line, with a neutral impact on stock indices [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Choose the opportunity to go long unilaterally, and pay attention to domestic policies and overseas geopolitical factors [3]. 3.2 Stock Index Market Review - **Index Performance**: Last week, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 rose 0.82% to 4678.8; the Shanghai 50 rose 0.89% to 3038.3; the CSI 500 fell 0.04% to 7327.9; the CSI 1000 rose 0.47% to 7541.9 [5]. - **Futures Contract Performance**: The weekly returns of the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM for the corresponding indices were 0.57%, 0.68%, - 0.30%, and 0.37% respectively [6]. - **Industry Index Performance**: Among the Shenwan primary industry indices, power equipment (5%), steel (4.4%), basic chemicals (3.5%), banks (2.8%), and comprehensive (2.6%) led the gains, while computer (- 2.5%), pharmaceutical biology (- 2.4%), automobile (- 1.2%), food and beverage (- 0.6%), and household appliances (- 0.5%) led the losses [9]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest of Stock Index Futures**: The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures decreased last week. For example, the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 futures decreased by 9.37%, and the open interest decreased by 5.03% [11]. - **Contract Premium and Discount**: As of November 7, different contracts of stock index futures showed different premium or discount rates. For example, the IF2511 contract had an annualized discount of 6.46%, and the IH2511 contract had an annualized premium of 0.78% [13]. - **Cross - Variety Spread Performance**: The spread between the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 and the Shanghai 50, and between the CSI 1000 and the CSI 500 was at different historical percentile levels [17]. 3.3 Stock Index Influencing Factors - Liquidity - **Central Bank's Open - Market Operations**: This week, the central bank conducted 4958 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 7000 billion yuan of 91 - day outright reverse repurchases in the open market, with a net withdrawal of 15722 billion yuan. Next week, 4958 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will expire [24]. - **Margin Trading and Short Selling**: As of November 6, the margin trading and short - selling balance of A - shares was 24908.9 billion yuan, an increase of 124.2 billion yuan from the previous week. The proportion of margin trading purchases to the total market trading volume was 12.6%, at the 98.5% percentile level in the past ten years [30]. - **Market Trading Volume**: The average daily trading volume of A - shares last week decreased by 2605.5 billion yuan compared with the previous week [30]. - **Risk Premium Rate**: As of November 7, the risk premium rate of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 was 5.19, at the 47.8% percentile level in the past ten years [30]. 3.4 Stock Index Influencing Factors - Economic Fundamentals and Corporate Earnings - **China's Macroeconomic Indicators**: In October, China's exports unexpectedly turned negative, and the manufacturing PMI decreased. Various economic indicators such as GDP, industrial added value, and fixed - asset investment showed different trends [33][42]. - **Real Estate**: The real estate market showed different trends in indicators such as housing prices, transaction volumes, and investment [35]. - **Consumption**: Different consumer goods showed different growth rates in sales. For example, the sales of some categories such as sports and entertainment products and jewelry showed relatively high growth, while the sales of petroleum products and building materials showed negative growth [38]. - **Manufacturing**: The manufacturing industry's PMI and its sub - indicators showed a decline in October, and different manufacturing sub - industries had different performance in production, orders, and prices [39][42]. - **Infrastructure Investment**: Infrastructure investment showed different trends in different sub - sectors, with some sectors showing growth and some showing decline [40]. - **Earnings of Major Broad - Based Indices and Industries**: Different broad - based indices and industries had different performance in net profit growth and return on equity [47][48]. 3.5 Stock Index Influencing Factors - Policy Drivers - **Recent Macro - Policy Trends**: A series of policies have been introduced in various fields such as consumption, real estate, and finance. For example, policies have been introduced to promote service consumption, optimize real estate purchase restrictions, and provide fiscal subsidies for consumer loans [52][53][54]. 3.6 Stock Index Influencing Factors - Overseas Factors - **US Economic Indicators**: In October, the US manufacturing PMI decreased, the non - manufacturing PMI increased, the consumer confidence index increased, and the unemployment rate and non - farm payrolls showed different trends [62]. - **US Inflation Indicators**: In September, the US PCE and core PCE year - on - year growth rates decreased, and the CPI and core CPI year - on - year growth rates increased slightly [66]. - **Trump Team's Statements and Actions**: Trump has proposed a series of tariff - related measures, which may have an impact on international trade and the global economy [68].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals, including copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, industrial silicon, and lithium carbonate. It takes into account factors such as macro - economic data, supply - demand relationships, and price trends to provide investment suggestions for each metal [2][3]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price Trend**: This week, copper prices fell from high levels but remained at historical highs, with weakening upward momentum. In the short term, copper prices are expected to remain in a high - level oscillation under the influence of macro and fundamental factors, with the main contract of Shanghai copper likely to operate in the range of 84,000 - 88,000 yuan/ton [2]. - **Macro Factors**: Hawkish remarks from the Federal Reserve have cooled the expectation of a December interest rate cut. The US government shutdown has delayed the release of key employment data, leading to cautious market sentiment. The strengthening of the US dollar has also suppressed copper prices [2]. - **Fundamental Factors**: Overseas mine restarts are slow, and the tight supply of copper concentrates has not significantly improved. Domestic electrolytic copper production decreased month - on - month. High copper prices have curbed consumption, and downstream procurement is mainly for rigid demand [2]. - **Investment Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term trading within the range [2]. Aluminum - **Price Trend**: Aluminum prices are oscillating upward at a high level, while alumina prices are oscillating at a low level. The prices of aluminum alloys are also oscillating upward at a high level [2]. - **Supply - Demand Factors**: The supply of domestic bauxite is expected to improve, while the price of bauxite in Guinea has decreased. The operating capacity of alumina has increased, and the inventory has also risen. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum has decreased slightly. The demand for aluminum downstream has weakened, and the inventory of aluminum ingots has increased slightly [2]. - **Investment Suggestion**: For alumina, it is recommended to take profit on long positions and sold out - of - the - money put options. For Shanghai aluminum and cast aluminum alloys, it is recommended to strengthen observation [2]. Zinc - **Price Trend**: Last week, zinc prices continued to rise. In general, the supply - side support is relatively strong due to the continuous decline in processing fees, but the high inventory and weak demand limit the upward space of Shanghai zinc. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton [2]. - **Supply - Demand Factors**: The processing fees of domestic and imported zinc ores have continued to decline, and the smelting profit has decreased. The market expects a reduction in refined zinc production. Terminal consumption is weak overall, and downstream enterprises maintain rigid - demand procurement [2]. - **Investment Suggestion**: It is recommended to conduct range trading [2]. Lead - **Price Trend**: Last week, the main contract of Shanghai lead closed at 17,420 yuan/ton, showing a trend of rising and then falling. In the short term, lead prices may continue to rise after consolidation [2]. - **Supply - Demand Factors**: The LME and COMEX lead inventories have decreased, while the Shanghai Futures Exchange lead inventory has increased. The demand for lead smelting remains strong, but the high price of primary lead has reduced the stocking willingness of downstream enterprises and increased the demand for recycled lead [2]. - **Investment Suggestion**: It is recommended to go long at low prices within the range of 17,300 - 17,800 yuan/ton [2]. Nickel - **Price Trend**: Last week, Shanghai nickel oscillated and declined. Nickel remains in a surplus situation, and the price is expected to oscillate downward within the range of 117,000 - 120,000 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply - Demand Factors**: The RKAB approval of Indonesian nickel mines continues, and miners' sentiment to hold up prices persists. The supply of refined nickel is in surplus, and the inventory is increasing. The price of nickel iron is under pressure to oscillate, and the price of stainless steel is weak [3]. - **Investment Suggestion**: It is recommended to hold short positions moderately at high prices [3]. Tin - **Price Trend**: Overseas supply is tight, and prices continue to oscillate. It is expected that tin prices will be supported, and it is recommended to conduct range trading within the range of 270,000 - 295,000 yuan/ton for the Shanghai tin 12 - contract [3]. - **Supply - Demand Factors**: In October, domestic refined tin production decreased year - on - year. The import of tin concentrates decreased in September. The consumption of the semiconductor industry is expected to recover, but the consumption of consumer electronics and photovoltaics is weak [3]. - **Investment Suggestion**: It is recommended to conduct range trading and continuously monitor the resumption of supply and the recovery of downstream demand [3]. Industrial Silicon - **Price Trend**: Industrial silicon prices are oscillating and adjusting, and the overall idea is to conduct range trading or wait and see. The price of polysilicon is oscillating widely at a high level [3]. - **Supply - Demand Factors**: The weekly output of industrial silicon has decreased, and the inventory has increased. The weekly output of polysilicon has decreased, and the market expects the establishment of a state - reserve platform. The production reduction of industrial silicon is stronger than that of polysilicon in reality, but the expectation of polysilicon production reduction still exists [3]. - **Investment Suggestion**: The overall idea is to conduct band trading, going long on polysilicon (PS) and short on industrial silicon (SI) [3]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Trend**: The price of lithium carbonate is oscillating widely overall, showing a trend of rising and then falling. It is expected that the price will continue to oscillate strongly, and it is recommended to build long positions at low prices [3]. - **Supply - Demand Factors**: The supply and demand in the domestic market are in a tight balance. The downstream demand is strong, and the terminal demand for energy storage continues to be good. The production of lithium carbonate in October increased month - on - month, and the import of lithium concentrates increased in September [3]. - **Investment Suggestion**: It is recommended to build long positions at low prices and continuously monitor the progress of mining permits in Yichun and the resumption of production of the Ningde Jianxiawo lithium mine [3]. 4. Macro - economic Data - **China**: China's October RatingDog manufacturing PMI was 50.6, remaining above the boom - bust line for three consecutive months, indicating continuous improvement in manufacturing prosperity, but the growth rate has slowed down. In October, China's exports denominated in US dollars decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, while imports increased by 1.0% year - on - year [13][14]. - **US**: The US October ISM manufacturing index was 48.7, lower than the expected 49.5 and the previous value of 49.1, indicating that the US manufacturing industry continued to contract. The US Supreme Court held a public hearing on Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" [16][18]. - **Eurozone**: The Eurozone's October manufacturing PMI final value was 50, indicating that the manufacturing industry was in a state of stagnation [17].

Group 1 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.2% year-on-year and month-on-month in October, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.1% year-on-year but increased by 0.1% month-on-month, indicating a recovery in the macroeconomic environment [1] - The improvement in CPI and PPI is attributed to effective domestic demand policies and positive changes in supply-demand relationships in certain industries, highlighting the role of policy, structure, and expectations in driving price recovery [1][2] - The rise in CPI reflects a recovery in the consumption market, significantly influenced by the holiday economy during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, which boosted service consumption in travel, accommodation, and tourism [1][2] Group 2 - The core CPI has expanded for six consecutive months, indicating a steady increase in demand for healthcare, home services, and entertainment, reflecting a shift in consumer preferences towards experiential and high-quality products [2] - The positive change in PPI signals a stabilization in the industrial economy, with the month-on-month increase in PPI suggesting a gradual recovery in industrial production demand, which supports CPI stability and enhances corporate production willingness and profitability [2] - The collaborative recovery between upstream and downstream industries strengthens the endogenous growth momentum of the economy, laying a solid foundation for sustained economic improvement [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The bond market has shown a volatile downward trend recently due to a mix of bullish and bearish factors. The central bank's restart of open - market Treasury bond trading and the marginal weakening of macro - data have strengthened the expectation of policy easing, providing core support for the bond market. However, the strengthening of the equity market and the approaching implementation of the "Sales New Rules" have caused short - term disturbances to market sentiment. Despite short - term disturbances, the core logic supporting the bond market's improvement at the end of the year remains solid. As the suppression from the equity market eases and market forces undergo structural changes, bond market sentiment is expected to continue to recover, and short - term fluctuations may present good allocation opportunities [2][87][88]. - The central bank's open - market Treasury bond trading in October was relatively restrained. It is a regular operation to enrich the liquidity - injection toolbox, bringing longer - term and cheaper funds to the market, which is expected to maintain overall market liquidity and ease the fund - stratification phenomenon. The weakening of October's economic data may lead to a marginal increase in the market's expectation of reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest - rate cuts, which could boost the year - end "long" sentiment in the bond market. The independent strength of the A - share market has temporarily boosted risk appetite and suppressed the bond market, but this suppression may be only temporary at the end of the year. The approaching implementation of the "Sales New Rules" has recently increased short - term market disturbances, but there is a possibility of a "sell - the - rumor, buy - the - news" market trend after the policy is officially implemented. Market forces are undergoing structural changes, with the active trading forces retreating, while rural commercial banks, which were previously conservative, have started to replenish their positions significantly, which is important for warming market sentiment and restoring confidence [2][88]. - If there is no increase in the expectation of interest - rate cuts to catalyze the bond - market rally, the market may show a narrow - range downward oscillation from November to December. Considering the weakening economic data, the market's expectation of reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest - rate cuts may increase marginally, boosting the year - end "long" sentiment in the bond market. It is conservatively estimated that the lower limits of the yields of 30 - year and 10 - year Treasury bonds (old bonds) may be around 1.9% and 1.7% respectively. In terms of investment strategy, it is recommended to set the portfolio duration in the medium - to - long range. For allocation, it is advisable to select high - quality coupon - bearing assets as the bottom - position, adopting the "coupon + carry - trade" income approach, and exploring the allocation opportunities of 2 - year AA -/AA - rated credit bonds and 10 - year local government bonds. For trading, it is recommended to pay attention to the trading opportunities of medium - duration varieties such as secondary perpetual bonds that have experienced significant declines [2][89]. Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Important Matters - In October, the central bank's open - market Treasury bond trading net - injected 20 billion yuan of liquidity. Through various central - bank loans, a total of 174.8 billion yuan of liquidity was injected, and through various open - market operations, a total of - 205.3 billion yuan of liquidity was injected. Among them, the net - injection scale of open - market Treasury bond trading reached 20 billion yuan [5]. - In November, the 3 - month term buy - back repurchase was carried out at the same volume. On November 5, 2025, the central bank conducted a 700 - billion - yuan buy - back repurchase operation with a 3 - month (91 - day) term, and the maturity scale of the 3 - month term buy - back repurchase in November was also 700 billion yuan [6]. - From January to October 2025, China's total import and export value was 37.31 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%. In October, China's export value in US dollars decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, and the import value increased by 1.0% year - on - year [8]. 2. Money Market 2.1 Open - Market Operations and Fund - Rate Trends - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the central bank injected 495.8 billion yuan through 7 - day reverse - repurchase operations, with 2068 billion yuan maturing, resulting in a net - injection of - 1572.2 billion yuan. From November 10 to November 14, 2025, it is expected that 495.8 billion yuan of base money will be matured and withdrawn. The policy rate of the 7 - day open - market reverse - repurchase was 1.40% from November 3 to November 7. As of November 7, R001, R007, DR001, and DR007 were 1.392%, 1.468%, 1.332%, and 1.413% respectively, with changes of - 1.53BP, - 2.46BP, 1.37BP, and - 4.21BP compared to October 31. The interest - rate centers also changed to some extent [11][12][15]. 2.2 Certificate of Deposit (CD) Rate Trends and Repurchase Transaction Situations - In the primary market of CDs, last week, the total CD issuance scale was 527.86 billion yuan, a decrease of 206.66 billion yuan from the previous week. The maturity scale was 376.87 billion yuan, a decrease of 187.44 billion yuan from the previous week, and the net - financing scale was 150.99 billion yuan, a decrease of 19.22 billion yuan from the previous week. As of the 45th week of 2025, the cumulative annual CD issuance scale had reached 29.04 trillion yuan. The institution with the largest CD issuance scale last week was city commercial banks, with a net - financing scale of 182.16 billion yuan. The CD issuance scales of state - owned banks, joint - stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks were 118.15 billion yuan, 127.78 billion yuan, 237.78 billion yuan, and 48.69 billion yuan respectively, accounting for 22.2%, 24.0%, 44.7%, and 9.1% of the total issuance. The CD issuance rates of various types of banks decreased to some extent compared to the previous week [18][21][24]. - In the secondary market of CDs, the yields of CDs of all maturities increased overall. The yields of AAA - rated 1 - month, 3 - month, 6 - month, 9 - month, and 1 - year CDs increased by 6.05BP, 1.13BP, 0.73BP, 0.37BP, and 0.50BP respectively, and the 1Y - 3M spread was at the 54.41% quantile level [28]. 3. Bond Market - In the primary market, last week, the supply of discounted Treasury bonds and short - term Treasury bonds increased. A total of 54 interest - rate bonds were issued, with an actual issuance amount of 513.997 billion yuan and a net - financing amount of 318.843 billion yuan. From January to November, the net - financing pace of local government bonds was generally faster than that of Treasury bonds. As of November 7, 2025, the cumulative net - financing scale of various Treasury bonds was about 5.85 trillion yuan, and that of various local bonds was about 6.44 trillion yuan, with a more obvious increase in the supply scale of central - government finances compared to the 2021 - 2024 average [31]. - In the secondary market, the bullish market of the restarted Treasury bond trading has temporarily ended. As the implementation of the "Sales New Rules" approaches, interest rates have generally shown a volatile upward trend. The yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bonds and the corresponding yields of China Development Bank bonds have all changed to some extent. The implied tax rate of 10 - year China Development Bank bonds increased slightly. The liquidity premium of active bonds has generally increased. The average spread between the active and sub - active bonds of 10 - year China Development Bank bonds was about - 6BP [31][45]. - The supply of Treasury bonds increased significantly last week. Among them, 5 Treasury bonds were issued, with an actual issuance amount of 295.89 billion yuan and a net - financing amount of 225.8 billion yuan; 32 local government bonds were issued, with an actual issuance amount of 91.607 billion yuan and a net - financing amount of - 5.457 billion yuan; 17 policy - financial bonds were issued, with an actual issuance amount of 126.5 billion yuan and a net - financing amount of 98.5 billion yuan. As of last week, the issuance scale of special refinancing bonds had reached 2.06 trillion yuan, mainly with long - and ultra - long - term maturities, and the issuance scale of bonds with maturities of 10 years and above was about 1.81 trillion yuan, accounting for about 88.02%. Regions with relatively large issuance scales include Jiangsu, Sichuan, Shandong, Guizhou, and Henan, accounting for about 35.67% of the total issuance scale [40][42]. 4. Institutional Behavior Tracking - Last week, the scale of leveraged trading fluctuated around a high - level center, with an average of about 7.97 trillion yuan. In the cash - bond market, the buying power of state - owned banks weakened, and they continued to prefer to increase their holdings of Treasury bonds with maturities of less than 5 years, but the buying scale decreased compared to the previous week. Rural commercial banks changed from selling to buying, with a total weekly increase in holdings of less than 5 billion yuan, which was a significant improvement compared to the previous week's net - selling of over 124 billion yuan. The承接 power of funds weakened, and securities companies sold about 31 billion yuan net. In contrast, the insurance industry's willingness to increase its holdings increased marginally, and it increased its holdings of policy - financial bonds with maturities of over 5 years [61][71]. - In September 2025, the overall inter - bank market institutional leverage ratio was about 118.68%, an increase of about 0.06 percentage points from August. The leverage ratios of commercial banks, securities companies, and other institutions in the inter - bank market in September were about 109.85%, 192.23%, and 133.25% respectively [61]. - The 20 - day moving average of the daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase last week was 7.37 trillion yuan, a change of about 430 billion yuan from the previous week. The average scale of leveraged trading last week was about 7.97 trillion yuan, and the daily leveraged - trading scales from November 3 to November 7 were 7.69 trillion yuan, 7.93 trillion yuan, 8.09 trillion yuan, 8.42 trillion yuan, and 7.72 trillion yuan respectively [67]. - Based on the net - buying data of institutional investors in the past 20 trading days, the recent average cost of adding positions in 10 - year Treasury bonds for major trading players such as rural commercial banks, securities companies, funds, and other products is around 1.830%. Rural commercial banks' behavior of adding positions at high prices was obvious last week, while the position - adding actions of securities companies and funds cooled down [74]. - According to the calculation methods in relevant reports, since the current spread between local government bonds and Treasury bonds is relatively high, both commercial banks and insurance companies can obtain relatively higher returns by investing in local government bonds [81]. 5. High - Frequency Data Tracking - In terms of high - frequency data, last week, the settlement price of rebar futures decreased by 3.42% week - on - week, the settlement price of wire rod futures remained unchanged at 0.00%, the settlement price of cathode - copper futures decreased by 1.54%, the cement - price index increased by 0.06%, and the Nanhua Glass Index increased by 0.74%. The CCFI index increased by 3.60% and the BDI index increased by 7.02% week - on - week. In terms of food prices, the wholesale price of pork increased by 2.42% and the wholesale price of vegetables increased by 1.58% week - on - week. The settlement prices of Brent crude - oil futures and WTI crude - oil futures decreased by 2.60% and 2.54% respectively week - on - week. The central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB last week was 7.08 [84]. 6. Market Outlook - The bond market is expected to continue to recover as the suppression from the equity market eases and market forces undergo structural changes. Short - term fluctuations may present good allocation opportunities. It is conservatively estimated that the lower limits of the yields of 30 - year and 10 - year Treasury bonds (old bonds) may be around 1.9% and 1.7% respectively. In terms of investment strategy, it is recommended to set the portfolio duration in the medium - to - long range, select high - quality coupon - bearing assets as the bottom - position, and explore the allocation opportunities of 2 - year AA -/AA - rated credit bonds and 10 - year local government bonds. For trading, it is recommended to pay attention to the trading opportunities of medium - duration varieties such as secondary perpetual bonds that have experienced significant declines [87][88][89].

Group 1: China Macroeconomic Indicators - The ICHI Composite Economic Index has returned to the expansion zone, indicating sustained economic resilience and accumulating structural recovery momentum[1] - The Consumer Sentiment Index has also risen to the expansion zone, reflecting active service consumption in travel, dining, and entertainment post-holiday[1] - The Investment Sentiment Index has slightly declined but remains in a mild contraction zone, primarily due to base effects from previous project launches[1] - The Production Sentiment Index has returned to the expansion zone, with a notable increase in enterprise operating rates and gradual recovery in manufacturing production[1] Group 2: Trade and Export Performance - In the first ten months of 2025, China's total goods trade value increased by 3.6% year-on-year, with exports growing by 6.2% and imports remaining nearly flat[2] - General trade and processing trade have expanded simultaneously, accounting for over 80% of total trade, indicating stable foreign trade structure and enhanced endogenous momentum[2] - Trade with ASEAN countries grew by 9.1%, and trade with Belt and Road countries increased by 5.9%, highlighting a shift towards emerging markets[2] - The export structure shows that electromechanical products account for over 60%, with integrated circuits and automobile exports growing by 24.7% and 14.3% respectively, showcasing the impact of high-end manufacturing and technological innovation[2]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Overview - The macroeconomic environment is characterized by a "slight decline" and "continuous improvement" interwoven, with manufacturing PMI and export growth showing slight decreases in October 2025 compared to the previous month [1][11] - The overall economic situation is improving compared to last year, with state-owned enterprises and listed companies showing signs of better performance, while support for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) needs to be enhanced [1][16] - The production index and new orders index for October were 49.7% and 48.8%, respectively, indicating a slight decline, but large enterprises continue to show expansion with indices above 50 [3][12] Group 2: Industry Development and Policy Support - High-tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, and consumer goods industries are crucial for maintaining the overall prosperity of the manufacturing sector, with a focus on supporting SMEs towards "specialized, refined, and innovative" development [4][18] - New application scenarios are expected to emerge in fields such as digital economy, artificial intelligence, clean energy, and biotechnology, providing growth opportunities for related companies [4][18] - The government emphasizes the need for a complete industrial chain in technology innovation and application to enhance the "R&D-application-manufacturing" capabilities across industries [21][22] Group 3: Investment Strategy - Investment focus should be on economically strong provinces with good debt management, such as Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang, with a recommended duration of 5 years [5][23] - Areas with significant debt resolution policies or funding support should be considered for shorter durations of 3-5 years, including Chongqing and Tianjin [5][25] - Attention should also be given to cities with strong industrial foundations and financial support, particularly those with important industrial chain positions [5][26]

今天消费股的好消息终于来了，一口气来了3个，引发消费股集体暴涨： 第一，刺激消费利好出炉。11月7日，财政部发布2025年上半年中国财政政策执行情况报告，将继续实 施好提振消费专项行动。 第二，CPI持续走强。10月份，CPI环比上涨0.2%，同比上涨0.2%。 第三，海南将迎来全岛封关。12月18日海南封关后将迎来全新发展阶段，三大税收优惠，会撬动海南多 大的杠杆呢？ 受这3大利好消息刺激，整个消费行业表现非常强势。 首先，海南12月18日封关发展，税收优惠确实是相当炸裂。 第一，货物"零关税"。商品税目比例从21%提升至74%(约6600个税目)。 不过，我是不太想参与海南的炒作，海南本地股，坑比较多，懂得都懂。 最后，大家最关心的行业——白酒。 今天白酒疯狂上涨，是不是行业的春天终于来了？ 对于白酒，我的思路是这样的： 第一，白酒的弹性大概率是排在周期后面。经济先好转，然后在消费，消费没有那么快回复。 第二，我投资白酒还是喜欢先看业绩。业绩转向后，弹性未来会很大，我不介意多等一两个季度的，白 酒不是周期股，不玩那种预期业绩改善提前布局的玩法，这是周期股的玩法，不是消费股，这点你得清 楚。 第二，加工增值 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, zinc prices were driven by LME at the beginning of the week, with SHFE zinc breaking through upwards and then maintaining high - level oscillations. The macro - sentiment is neutral this week. The US government shutdown makes it difficult to predict subsequent interest rate cuts due to data shortages, and Powell's hawkish speech reduces the expectation of interest rate cuts. Although some US economic data shows weakness, the ADP data slightly eases labor concerns. The US dollar index breaks through 100 due to liquidity tightness, suppressing the upside of non - ferrous metals [2]. - Fundamentally, on the supply side, domestic smelters' winter storage is not over, and raw materials are tight in the short term. TC is under pressure, slightly suppressing the willingness to start production, but refined zinc production is still at a historical high, with a projected slight decline in November. Overseas, refined zinc remains in a tight supply pattern, and LME inventories continue to decline. On the demand side, there is no suitable driving force in the short term, and it remains stable. Looking ahead, although the supply is still stronger than demand, there is expected to be some improvement in November due to the opening of the export window and the compression of smelting profits. It is expected to be mainly in a relatively strong oscillatory pattern, so attention should be paid to macro data and the supply - demand game [2]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - **Macro - level**: The US government shutdown affects interest rate cut predictions. Powell's hawkish speech reduces the expectation of interest rate cuts. US economic data shows mixed signals, and the high - level oscillation of the US dollar index suppresses non - ferrous metals [2]. - **Fundamental - level**: - **Supply**: Domestic smelters' winter storage leads to short - term raw material tightness. TC decline may slightly suppress production start - up in November, but production is still at a high level. Overseas, supply is tight, and LME inventories are decreasing. - **Demand**: There is no short - term driving force, remaining stable. In the near - term, the zinc market's fundamentals are mixed. In the long - term, macro factors are generally optimistic, but the demand side needs support from infrastructure and real estate [2][5][7]. 3.1.2 Trading - type Strategy Recommendations - **Market Positioning**: The current SHFE zinc main contract is in a relatively strong oscillatory pattern, with potential upward drivers influenced by exports and macro factors. The pressure level is around 23,000 yuan/ton, and the support level is around 22,200 yuan/ton. The trading volume and open interest are neutral [10][11]. - **Short - term Futures Strategy**: High - sell and low - buy within the range. Lightly go long around 22,200 - 22,300 yuan/ton with a stop - loss around 22,100 yuan/ton; go short around 22,900 - 23,000 yuan/ton with a stop - loss around 23,100 yuan/ton. Due to the strong prediction of zinc prices in November, short - selling is not recommended for now [11]. - **Short - term Options Strategy**: Mainly adopt the option double - selling strategy [11]. - **Basis, Calendar Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations**: - **Basis Strategy**: Although the current basis is at a historical low, due to weak fundamentals, going long on the basis is not recommended. - **Calendar Spread Strategy**: There is currently no recommendation. - **Hedging Arbitrage Strategy**: With the strong overseas and weak domestic market, the internal - external price difference is expanding. Consider cross - market arbitrage, specifically selling overseas and buying domestically, and it is advisable to enter the market now [12]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Short - term Futures Strategy**: It has been continuously profitable, and the point prediction has been accurate in the past two weeks. - **Options Strategy**: Adopt the wide - straddle options strategy. - **Internal - External Arbitrage Strategy**: It is advisable to enter the market. - **Zinc Risk Management Recommendations**: - **Inventory Management**: For high finished - product inventory, worry about price drops. Sell 75% of the SHFE zinc main contract at 22,700 yuan/ton. - **Raw Material Management**: For low raw - material inventory, worry about price increases. Buy 50% of the SHFE zinc main contract at 21,700 yuan/ton [17][18]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: SHFE zinc inventories are decreasing; domestic processing fees TC are accelerating their decline; the export window for domestic zinc ingots is open, and SMM predicts an export volume of about 10,000 tons in October; LME inventories are continuously decreasing; LME spot premiums remain at a high level [19][20]. - **Negative Information**: The downstream开工率 in the domestic market is declining, and the domestic spot premium is weak, reflecting weak actual demand [21]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - **Chinese Data and Events**: China's October M2/social financing data (expected to be announced between the 10th and 13th); SMM/Mysteel domestic social inventory update on the 10th; SHFE/SMM weekly inventory data on the 14th. - **International Data and Events**: US October PPI and retail sales data; speeches by multiple Fed officials on inflation and employment; actual changes in China's export volume and LME inventories (especially Asian warehouses) [23]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Fund Interpretation - **Internal Market**: Zinc prices oscillated at a high level this week, closing at 22,720 yuan/ton. Profitable positions are mainly long in net positions. The domestic basis - calendar spread structure is stable, and the SHFE zinc term structure maintains a C structure [24][26]. - **External Market**: LME zinc was relatively strong this week, closing at 3,057.5 US dollars/ton. Investment companies and credit institutions hold a large proportion of positions, and the LME zinc term structure maintains a B structure due to inventory tightness [28][34]. - **Internal - External Price Difference Tracking**: The internal - external price difference continues to expand, mainly due to the difference in fundamentals between the two markets [36]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain Zinc concentrate processing fees continue to decline in November, and the smelting start - up rate is expected to decline slightly [38]. 3.4.2 Import - Export Profit Tracking In September, zinc ore imports reached 505,400 tons, a slight increase. Currently, due to the influence of domestic smelting start - up rates, zinc ore imports are at a five - year high. However, due to the weakening internal - external price ratio, the profit of imported ores is poor, and importers are more inclined to wait and see [41]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - **Zinc Concentrate Monthly Balance**: The actual consumption exceeds production and imports in most months, showing a supply - demand gap [43][44]. - **Refined Zinc Monthly Balance**: The production, net imports, and consumption data show different supply - demand balances in different months, with some months having a surplus and others a deficit [44]. 3.5.2 Supply - side and Deduction In November, domestic supply enters the winter storage period. Imported ores are in a state of continuous loss, and raw materials are expected to be tight, with a slight decline in the start - up rate [46]. 3.5.3 Demand - side and Deduction The开工率 this week was stable [52].

Report Title - Copper Weekly Report 20251109 [1] Core Viewpoint - There is uncertainty in the macro - environment, and the resonance between the fundamentals' expectations and reality is limited [1] Price Data - The copper futures price declined, the spot purchasing sentiment warmed up, and the premium increased [9] - The LME copper 0 - 3M backwardation widened slightly week - on - week [10] Fundamental Data - The average price of the copper concentrate TC index increased by $0.11/ton week - on - week to - $42.04/ton, still at a low level [14] - The inventory of copper concentrates at ten ports increased by 0.36 tons week - on - week to 62.97 tons [16] - The refined - scrap copper price spread decreased week - on - week [18] - The domestic electrolytic copper production in November is expected to decrease by 0.4% month - on - month and increase by 8.2% year - on - year [20] - China's imports of copper ore and concentrates from January to October were 2508.6 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.5% [22] - The spot inventory of electrolytic copper increased week - on - week, while the bonded - area inventory decreased [25] - The LME copper inventory increased, and the COMEX copper inventory continued to accumulate [26] - The operating rate of refined copper rods increased week - on - week, as the copper price declined and downstream purchasing picked up [29] - The retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in the Chinese market from October 1st to 31st increased by 17% year - on - year [30] - The production schedules of domestic component enterprises in November vary, with the overall schedule expected to decline month - on - month [31] - The planned production of household air - conditioners in November decreased by 23.7% compared with the actual production in the same period last year [32] Macroeconomic Data - China's official manufacturing PMI in October dropped to 49, while the non - manufacturing index rose to 50.1 [35] - The US ISM manufacturing PMI contracted for eight consecutive months in October, and the service PMI reached an eight - month high [37] - The direction of the Fed's interest - rate cut in December is unclear [40]