1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The main contract price of rebar continued to fluctuate, with a daily increase of 0.13%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. The current situation of weak supply and demand for rebar remains unchanged, with poor fundamentals during the off - season, putting continued pressure on steel prices. However, low inventory levels mean there are few real - world contradictions. It is expected that steel prices will continue to fluctuate at low levels, and attention should be paid to demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil fluctuated at a low level, with a daily increase of 0.13%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. Currently, hot - rolled coil supply is stable, but the pressure has not eased. Demand has improved, but its sustainability needs to be tracked. The fundamentals are weakly stable, and prices continue to be under pressure. The relatively positive factor is that overseas risks are easing. It is expected that the trend will continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore fluctuated, with a daily increase of 0.43%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. The current pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged, the fundamentals of iron ore continue to be weak, and the futures price discount is continuously being repaired. Under the dominance of negative factors, it is expected that iron ore prices will continue to be under pressure and fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to changes in hot metal production [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - From January to May 2025, China's excavator production was 140,575 units, a year - on - year increase of 13.9%. In May 2025, the production was 25,845 units, a year - on - year increase of 11.1%. For tractors, in May 2025, the production of large, medium, and small tractors was 7,165 units, 17,451 units, and 11,000 units respectively, with year - on - year decreases of 32.8%, 13.3%, and 8.3%. From January to May 2025, the production of large, medium, and small tractors was 58,725 units, 121,414 units, and 54,000 units respectively, with year - on - year decreases of 2.4%, 8.0%, and 18.2%. Overall, from January to May 2025, the production of major mechanical equipment in China varied. Excavators, metal - cutting machine tools, and metal - forming machine tools had the most obvious production growth, with year - on - year increases of 13.9%, 13.3%, and 11.3% respectively; the production of small tractors decreased significantly, with a year - on - year decrease of 18.2% [6]. - After the end of the air - conditioning cold year, the export production schedule for July decreased by 17.7%. In April, the traditional sales peak season started, and enterprises significantly increased resource investment, leading to a rapid increase in retail data. The 618 promotion started on May 13th, and combined with the trade - in policy, retail data increased again. According to Aowei Cloud Network's aggregated data, in May, air - conditioning retail sales increased by 30.4% online and 27.1% offline. The high retail growth drove the acceleration of enterprise production and a high base in the second quarter. In July 2025, the production schedule for household air - conditioners was 14.31 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%. Among them, the domestic sales production schedule was 8.82 million units, a year - on - year increase of 7.4%; the export production schedule was 5.49 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 17.7% [7]. - According to National Bureau of Statistics data, in May 2025, China's crude steel production was 86.545 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.9%; from January to May, the cumulative crude steel production was 431.631 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. In terms of provincial and municipal data, from January to May 2025, Hebei ranked first with a production of 92.8269 million tons; Jiangsu ranked second with a production of 52.49 million tons; Shandong ranked third with a production of 30.3332 million tons [8]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,060, 3,200, and 3,219 respectively, with changes of - 10, 0, and - 5. The spot prices of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,190, 3,100, and 3,229 respectively, with changes of - 10, - 10, and - 4. The price of Tangshan steel billet was 2,910 with no change, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,130 with a change of 30. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 130 with no change, and the spread between rebar and scrap was 930 with a change of - 40 [9]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 710 with a change of 1; the price of Tangshan iron concentrate powder was 707 with a change of - 3. The freight rates from Australia and Brazil were 9.62 and 25.07 respectively, with changes of - 0.91 and - 0.80. The SGX swap price (current month) was 94.17 with a change of - 0.25, and the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) was 92.75 with a change of - 0.35 [9]. 3.3 Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract was 2,986, with a daily increase of 0.13%, a high of 3,002, a low of 2,975, a trading volume of 1,180,366 (a decrease of 146,607), and an open interest of 2,132,733 (a decrease of 1,210) [11]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures active contract was 3,103, with a daily increase of 0.13%, a high of 3,120, a low of 3,092, a trading volume of 398,637 (a decrease of 85,432), and an open interest of 1,488,632 (a decrease of 13,154) [11]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract was 698.0, with a daily increase of 0.43%, a high of 703.0, a low of 691.5, a trading volume of 392,127 (a decrease of 46,650), and an open interest of 678,221 (a decrease of 6,843) [11]. 3.4 Related Charts The report provides various charts related to steel and iron ore inventories, including weekly changes in rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories, total inventories (steel mills + social inventories), national 45 - port iron ore inventories, 247 - steel mill iron ore inventories, domestic mine iron concentrate powder inventories, as well as charts on steel mill production such as the blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, proportion of profitable steel mills, independent electric furnace operating rate, and the profit and loss situation of independent electric arc furnace steel mills [13][18][28]. 3.5后市研判 - For rebar, both supply and demand continued to decline. Weekly production decreased by 108,900 tons, and supply continued to contract to the lowest level of the year, leading to inventory reduction and providing support for steel prices. However, due to good profit per ton of the product, the sustainability of production cuts is questionable. Meanwhile, rebar demand continued to weaken seasonally, with weekly apparent demand decreasing by 124,000 tons, and high - frequency daily transactions were lower than normal, both remaining at low levels in recent years. The weak demand pattern remains unchanged, still likely to suppress steel prices. Overall, the situation of weak supply and demand for rebar remains unchanged, with poor fundamentals during the off - season, putting continued pressure on steel prices. However, low inventory levels mean there are few real - world contradictions. It is expected that steel prices will continue to fluctuate at low levels, and attention should be paid to demand performance [35]. - For hot - rolled coil, the supply - demand pattern continued to weaken. Although mill maintenance led to a decrease in hot - rolled coil production, with a weekly decrease of 41,000 tons, it was still at a high level of the year, and mills mainly focused on protecting plate production, so the supply pressure was difficult to relieve. Meanwhile, hot - rolled coil demand was weakly stable, with weekly apparent demand decreasing by 10,400 tons, and high - frequency transactions rebounded at a low level, mainly due to the high - level production of the downstream cold - rolling industry. However, industrial contradictions were still accumulating, and attention should be paid to the pressure caused by the intensification of contradictions. The relatively positive factor was the progress in China - US trade negotiations and the easing of overseas risks. In short, the supply of hot - rolled coil was stable, the pressure was not relieved, demand improved but its sustainability needed to be tracked, the fundamentals were weakly stable, prices continued to be under pressure, and the relatively positive factor was the easing of overseas risks. It is expected that the trend will continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to demand performance [35]. - For iron ore, the supply - demand pattern weakened as expected, and inventory continued to accumulate. During the off - season, steel mill production weakened, and the terminal consumption of ore continued to decline. Last week, the average daily hot metal production and the daily consumption of imported ore of sample steel mills decreased month - on - month, but the decline was relatively limited. Considering the obvious weakening of steel market demand during the off - season, there was still room for further reduction in the future, and the weak demand pattern remained unchanged. Meanwhile, the arrival at domestic ports decreased, and the shipments from overseas miners also decreased but remained at a high level of the year. According to the shipping schedule, the arrival volume was expected to increase again, and the domestic ore supply was weakly stable. Overall, the pattern of strong supply and weak demand remained unchanged, the fundamentals of iron ore continued to be weak, and the futures price discount was continuously being repaired. Under the dominance of negative factors, it is expected that iron ore prices will continue to be under pressure and fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to changes in hot metal production [36].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For copper, the global supply - demand pattern remains tight due to pre - emptive US demand. The opening of the domestic refined copper export window since June supports copper prices before US tariffs are imposed, but weak tariff implementation may reduce copper trade demand [1][2][3]. - For protein粕, the RVO obligation of the US EPA is unexpectedly positive, and international vegetable oils are reasonably priced high in the short term. Soybean prices are mainly oscillating, and the strategy of selling out - of - the - money call options on soybean oil 2509 is considered [4][5][6]. - For petroleum asphalt, the asphalt futures price maintains a high - level oscillation pattern in the short term due to crude oil cost support. In the long run, the asphalt fundamentals are weak in summer, and the asphalt cracking spread continues to weaken [7][8][9]. 3. Summary by Variety Metal and New Energy Materials Sector - Copper - **Intraday View**: 78200 - 79200 [1] - **Medium - term View**: 60000 - 90000 [1] - **Reference Strategy**: Adopt an oscillating operation approach [1] - **Core Logic**: - **Macro**: The US Congressional Budget Office indicates that the "big and beautiful" legal system will increase the fiscal deficit by $2.8 trillion [1]. - **Supply**: In May 2025, China imported 2.4 million tons of copper ore concentrates, a 6.6% year - on - year increase; from January to May, the cumulative import was 12.41 million tons, a 7.4% year - on - year increase. The supply of recycled copper raw materials is tightening. The Kakula copper mine in Congo (Kinshasa) has复产, but the 2025 production plan is reduced. The Adani copper smelter in India has a risk of canceling the long - term supply contract [1]. - **Demand**: In May 2025, China's exports of unwrought copper and copper products decreased by 23.6% year - on - year; imports decreased by 16.6% year - on - year. The overall market for refined copper rods is weak, and the new orders for enameled wire are decreasing. The US may impose a 25% tariff on imported copper [2]. - **Inventory**: On June 18, LME copper inventory decreased by 200 tons to 107,400 tons. SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 7,527 tons to 47,000 tons, and international copper warehouse receipts decreased by 582 tons to 4,162 tons [2]. Livestock, Poultry and Soft Commodities Sector - Protein粕 - **Intraday View**: Soybean meal 2509 continues to oscillate between [3000, 3100] [4] - **Medium - term View**: Soybean meal 2509 builds a bottom in the range of [2900, 3100] [4] - **Reference Strategy**: Sell out - of - the - money call options on soybean oil 2509 - C - 8400 [4] - **Core Logic**: - **Weather and Market Impact**: In late June, soybean meal 2509 follows US soybeans into an oscillating market due to uncertain weather in US and Canadian rapeseed production areas. The Middle East geopolitical conflict and the US EPA's RVO proposal have boosted soybean oil prices [4]. - **International Soybean Situation**: The good condition of US soybeans is negative for far - month contracts, but the strength of vegetable oils drives up US soybean prices, resulting in a mixed situation for soybean meal. The expected soybean arrivals in June, July, and August are 12 million tons, 9.5 million tons, and 8.5 million tons respectively [5]. - **Rapeseed Situation**: Canadian rapeseed planting is faster than usual, which is negative for far - month contracts. ICE rapeseed follows the rise of US soybean oil. The estimated global rapeseed production in the 25/26 year is 89.77 million tons [5]. Energy and Chemicals Sector - Petroleum Asphalt - **Intraday View**: High - level oscillation [7] - **Medium - term View**: Under pressure [7] - **Reference Strategy**: Hold the strategy of shorting asphalt and going long on high - sulfur fuel oil spread [7] - **Core Logic**: - **Supply**: This week, the losses of local refineries in asphalt production have deepened, and the domestic asphalt refinery operating rate has decreased. As of June 17, the weekly asphalt production was 537,000 tons, a decrease of 12,000 tons [7]. - **Demand**: In the north, demand is restricted by high prices, and trading has declined slightly; in the south, demand is weak due to rainfall. The operating rate of waterproofing membrane enterprises is low. Asphalt refinery inventory has decreased, while social inventory is relatively stable [8]. - **Cost**: Geopolitical premiums support high oil prices in the short term. In the long run, oil prices will decline from high levels due to supply growth and weakening demand [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA: The attack by Israel on Iran led to a sharp rise in oil prices, driving up PTA prices. However, the previous maintenance devices of PTA have been restarted one after another, and new devices are put into production, weakening the supply - demand pattern. It is expected that the PTA spot price will fluctuate following the cost side in the short term. The spot basis is expected to be strong in the short term due to tight spot market supply, but may decline as supply resumes. Attention should be paid to the development of the Israel - Iran situation [5]. - MEG: Last week, ethylene glycol vessels were smoothly stored in the warehouse, and it is expected that the port inventory will rise at the beginning of next week. In the short term, the ethylene glycol market price will mainly follow the cost side. Subsequently, attention should be paid to the changes in geopolitical conflicts. Fundamentally, ethylene glycol is still in the de - stocking channel in June, and the inventory of mainstream trading tanks is running at a low level. However, as time goes by, the supply of syngas production will continue to recover, and the supply side will gradually become looser. In addition, after the obvious rebound of ethylene glycol prices, attention should be paid to the resumption progress of previously long - shut - down devices [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 PTA Analysis - **Fundamentals**: The PTA market is short - term oscillating and strengthening, mainly because of the concentrated production cuts of bottle chips in July, and the TA basis is still strong. The spot market negotiation atmosphere is average, the spot basis is strengthening, the June goods are negotiated around 09 + 280, the PTA spot processing fee is 224 yuan/ton (- 85), and the PTA09 disk processing fee is 344 yuan/ton (+ 4) [6]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 5020, the 09 - contract basis is 291, and the disk is at a discount, which is bullish [6]. - **Inventory**: The PTA factory inventory is 4.03 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 days, which is bearish [6]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [6]. - **Main Position**: The net long position has changed from short to long, which is bullish [6]. 3.2 MEG Analysis - **Fundamentals**: Currently, the spot basis is at a premium of 81 - 90 yuan/ton to the 09 - contract, and the July futures basis is at a premium of 85 - 88 yuan/ton to the 09 - contract. As of June 16, the total inventory of the MEG port in the main port area of East China is 54.26 tons, a decrease of 2.12 tons compared with the previous period. The overall operating load of ethylene glycol is 66.26% [7]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4470, the 09 - contract basis is 76, and the disk is at a discount, which is bullish [7]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in East China is 55.38 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.32 tons, which is bullish [7]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [7]. - **Main Position**: The main net short position has increased, which is bearish [7]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Bullish Factors**: The attack by Israel on Iran led to a sharp rise in oil prices, driving up PTA prices [8]. - **Bearish Factors**: The previous maintenance devices of PTA have been restarted one after another, and new devices are put into production, weakening the supply - demand pattern; as time goes by, the supply of syngas production of ethylene glycol will continue to recover, and the supply side will gradually become looser [9]. 3.4 Current Main Logic and Risk Points - The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side. After the disk rebounds, attention should be paid to the upper resistance level [10]. 3.5 Supply - demand Balance Tables - **PTA Supply - demand Balance Table**: It shows the PTA production capacity, production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and inventory from January 2024 to December 2025 [11]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - demand Balance Table**: It shows the ethylene glycol operating rate, production, import, total supply, polyester consumption, and port inventory from January 2024 to December 2025 [12]. 3.6 Other Data Analysis - **Price Data**: It includes the spot price of bottle chips, production profit, capacity utilization rate, inventory, PTA basis, MEG inter - month spread, basis, spot spread, and other data from 2020 - 2025 [14][17][27] - **Inventory Analysis**: It includes the inventory data of PTA factories, MEG ports, PET slices, polyester fibers, etc., from 2020 - 2025 [40] - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: It includes the operating rates of PTA, paraxylene, ethylene glycol, polyester factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms from 2020 - 2025 [51][55] - **Profit Analysis**: It includes the processing fees of PTA, the production profits of MEG, polyester fibers (short - fiber, DTY, POY, FDY), etc., from 2022 - 2025 [59][62]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2025 年 6 月 18 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 产业格局弱稳，钢矿低位震荡 核心观点 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 7 请务必阅读文末免责条款 请务必阅读文末免责条款部分 1 / 8 螺纹钢：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.13%日涨幅，量增仓缩。现阶段， 螺纹供需格局表现不佳，淡季钢价承压运行，相对利好则是现实矛盾不 大，库存维持低位，基本面弱稳局面下预计钢价延续低位震荡运行态 势，关注需求变化情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价低位震荡，录得 0.32%日涨幅，量增仓缩。目前来 看，热卷供需格局未好 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The steel market is facing challenges as the traditional off - season approaches. Although high hot metal production and raw material cost support the market, demand is under pressure due to factors like policy changes, weak investment data, and potential anti - dumping measures [3]. - Short - term iron ore fundamentals are expected to see an increase in both supply and demand, with price elasticity remaining low. The supply is abundant, and the demand is better than expected, so the iron ore price is likely to be stable in the short term [18]. - In the medium - to - long - term, the coal - coke market may continue to decline as the negative feedback in the black - series is brewing due to factors such as tariff policies and the off - season [35]. - Ferroalloys are expected to remain weak as the cost is likely to decrease, and the demand is in the off - season, but they may be affected by news when the valuation is too low [51]. - The soda ash market is in a long - term oversupply situation. Although there are short - term production fluctuations due to maintenance, it does not change the overall pattern. The demand from the photovoltaic glass industry is weakening [64]. - The glass market has a weak short - term fundamental and cost support. Although there is an expectation of increased cold - repair if the low price persists, there is no obvious driving force currently [92]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Price Data**: On June 18, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 2978, 2980, and 2986 yuan/ton respectively; those of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3100, 3093, and 3102 yuan/ton respectively. The rebar and hot - rolled coil basis widened, and the term structure changed from contango to back [4][19]. - **Market Situation**: The conflict in the Middle East has pushed up the price of coal, but the steel demand is facing a test in the off - season. There is pressure on the coil and sheet market in some regions, and the steel export may face more anti - dumping pressure [3]. Iron Ore - **Price Data**: On June 18, 2025, the closing price of the 01 contract was 670.5 yuan/ton. The term structure of iron ore flattened, and the backwardation of the far - month contracts slightly increased [20][19]. - **Market Situation**: The supply is expected to remain high, with shipments exceeding the seasonal average by over 300,000 tons. The demand is better than expected, and the hot metal production is likely to remain around 2.4 million tons [18]. Coal - Coke - **Price Data**: On June 18, 2025, the coking coal warehouse - receipt cost (Tangshan Meng 5) was 791 yuan/ton, and the coke warehouse - receipt cost (Rizhao Port wet - quenched) was 1293 yuan/ton. The term structure of coking coal flattened, and the premium of the far - month contracts narrowed [36]. - **Market Situation**: Short - term price fluctuations may intensify due to the conflict in the Middle East. In the medium - to - long - term, the coal - coke market may continue to decline as the negative feedback in the black - series is brewing [35]. Ferroalloys - **Price Data**: On June 18, 2025, the silicon - iron basis in Ningxia was 110 yuan/ton, and the silicon - manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 274 yuan/ton. The ferroalloy positions have decreased, and some funds have left the market [54][55]. - **Market Situation**: The silicon - iron has a production - cut driving force as the profit is at the bottom of the range, while the silicon - manganese profit has improved. The overall situation is weak due to factors such as cost reduction expectations and the off - season [51]. Soda Ash - **Price Data**: On June 18, 2025, the closing prices of soda ash 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1204, 1170, and 1159 yuan/ton respectively. The market is in a long - term oversupply situation, and the inventory is at a historical high [66][64]. - **Market Situation**: The production has recovered to over 700,000 tons, and the demand from the photovoltaic glass industry is weakening. The price needs further decline in the spot market to fall further [64]. Glass - **Price Data**: On June 18, 2025, the closing prices of glass 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1084, 980, and 1038 yuan/ton respectively. The cumulative apparent demand of glass has dropped by nearly 10% [93]. - **Market Situation**: The supply has a situation of both ignition and cold - repair. The short - term fundamental and cost support are weak, and there is no obvious driving force [92].

Group 1 - LME metal futures show mixed performance influenced by fluctuations in the US dollar and escalating tensions in the Middle East [1] - China's imports of aluminum ore have significantly increased, while exports of unwrought copper have declined, indicating a shift in supply and demand dynamics [1]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Cost-driven upward momentum for polyolefins has weakened, and they are experiencing high-level oscillations. Polyolefins are in a stage of strong cost and weak supply-demand dynamics. In the short term, cost logic still provides support, but as the geopolitical risk premium fades, polyolefins face the pressure of a high-level decline [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - The L2509 contract of linear low-density polyethylene (LLDPE) opened higher, fluctuated upward during the session, and closed up at 7,317 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan/ton (0.51%), with a trading volume of 470,000 lots and an increase in open interest of 8,529 to 486,231 lots. The main contract of polypropylene (PP) closed at 7,125 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan (0.25%), with a decrease in open interest of 4,930 to 455,500 lots. The futures rally has narrowed, and the market trading atmosphere has significantly declined. The supply-demand pattern has changed little. With the weakening of maintenance efforts and the launch of new production capacity, supply-side pressure has resurfaced. The downstream agricultural film industry's operating rate has declined to a relatively low level for the year, the packaging industry's short-term willingness to stock raw materials and finished products is not high, and the plastic weaving industry's operating rate is significantly lower than the same period in previous years [4]. 3.2 Industry News - On June 17, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 825,000 tons, up 15,000 tons or 1.85% from the previous working day, compared with 820,000 tons in the same period last year. The domestic PP market showed a narrow consolidation. Traders faced increased resistance in selling, and some high-price quotes were slightly adjusted downward yesterday, while others remained basically stable. Downstream factories mainly adopted a wait-and-see attitude, and actual transactions were dull. The mainstream prices of North China's drawn PP were between 7,100 - 7,250 yuan/ton, East China's between 7,130 - 7,230 yuan/ton, and South China's between 7,100 - 7,330 yuan/ton. The PE market prices continued to rise. In North China, some linear PE prices rose by 20 - 50 yuan/ton, some high-pressure PE prices rose by 50 - 250 yuan/ton, and low-pressure PE prices fluctuated by 30 - 100 yuan/ton. In East China, some high-pressure PE prices rose by 50 - 300 yuan/ton, and low-pressure and linear PE prices rose by 20 - 100 yuan/ton. In South China, linear and low-pressure PE prices fluctuated by 10 - 50 yuan/ton, and high-pressure PE prices rose by 50 - 200 yuan/ton. The prices of LLDPE in North China were between 7,280 - 7,430 yuan/ton, in East China between 7,350 - 7,750 yuan/ton, and in South China between 7,470 - 7,700 yuan/ton [5]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures main contract settlement price, two major oil companies' inventory, and two major oil companies' inventory year-on-year increase/decrease rate, but specific data values in the charts are not described in detail in the text [7][14][16].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Views of the Report - **Rebar**: The main contract price fluctuates. The supply - demand pattern of rebar weakens seasonally, pressuring the steel price. However, inventory is decreasing at a low level, and the real - world contradictions are limited. The short - term trend will maintain a low - level fluctuating pattern, and attention should be paid to demand changes [4][38]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The main contract price fluctuates. The supply pressure eases slightly, and the demand is weakly stable. The fundamentals of hot - rolled coils have not improved, and the price is under pressure. But overseas risks are easing, so it is expected that the price will continue the low - level fluctuating trend, and attention should be paid to demand performance [4][38]. - **Iron ore**: The main contract price fluctuates weakly. The supply - strong and demand - weak pattern of iron ore remains unchanged, and the fundamentals are weakening, pressuring the ore price. The relatively positive factor is the large discount of the futures price. Under the game of long and short factors, the ore price will continue the weakly fluctuating trend, and attention should be paid to the change in molten iron [4][39]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry Dynamics - From January to May 2025, Shanghai's urban infrastructure investment increased by 19.1% year - on - year, and the city's total social fixed - asset investment increased by 6.2% year - on - year [6]. - In May 2025, the production of commercial vehicles was 336,000 units (a month - on - month decrease of 7.4% and a year - on - year increase of 4.4%), and the sales were 335,000 units (a month - on - month decrease of 8.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 2%). From January to May, the production and sales were 1.746 million and 1.753 million units respectively, with year - on - year increases of 4.2% and 1.2% [7]. - Australian mining company Tempest Minerals announced the test results of the Remorse iron ore project, with an iron ore grade of up to 70%, and most samples have an iron content of over 68% and extremely low impurity levels [8]. Spot Market - Rebar: The Shanghai price is 3,060 yuan, Tianjin is 3,200 yuan, and the national average is 3,229 yuan. - Hot - rolled coil: The Shanghai price is 3,190 yuan, Tianjin is 3,110 yuan, and the national average is 3,233 yuan. - Other products: The price of Tangshan billet is 2,920 yuan, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap is 2,100 yuan. The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports is 714 yuan [9]. Futures Market | Product | Closing Price | Change (%) | Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | 2,981 | 0.17 | 1,046,277 | - 491,145 | 2,140,997 | - 23,735 | | Hot - rolled coil | 3,093 | 0.13 | 353,677 | - 249,865 | 1,522,669 | - 5,724 | | Iron ore | 699.0 | - 0.07 | 319,182 | - 219,028 | 675,663 | - 9,829 | [11] Relevant Charts - **Steel Inventory**: Includes charts of rebar inventory (weekly change, total inventory of steel mills and social inventory), hot - rolled coil inventory (weekly change, total inventory of steel mills and social inventory) [13][14][19]. - **Iron Ore Inventory**: Includes charts of 45 - port iron ore inventory (total inventory, seasonal inventory), 247 - steel mill iron ore inventory, and domestic mine iron ore concentrate inventory [20][21][26]. - **Steel Mill Production**: Includes charts of 247 - sample steel mill blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate, 87 - independent electric furnace operating rate, 247 - steel mill profitable steel mill ratio, and 75 - building material independent electric arc furnace steel mill profit and loss situation [28][29][31]. Market Outlook - **Rebar**: Supply and demand are both declining. Supply is at a low level for the year, and inventory is decreasing, which supports the steel price. However, the sustainability of production cuts is questionable. Demand is seasonally weak, and the weak demand pattern remains unchanged. The short - term trend is a low - level fluctuation, and attention should be paid to demand changes [38]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The supply - demand pattern continues to weaken. Although production has decreased due to steel mill maintenance, it is still at a high level for the year, and supply pressure is difficult to relieve. Demand is weakly stable, and industry contradictions are accumulating. Overseas risks are easing, and the price is expected to continue the low - level fluctuating trend, and attention should be paid to demand performance [38]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand pattern weakens as expected, and inventory is accumulating. Steel mill production is weak in the off - season, and ore consumption is declining. Supply remains at a high level. The price is under pressure, and the futures price discount is large. The price will continue the weakly fluctuating trend, and attention should be paid to the change in molten iron [39].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Views - The report indicates that the price of tin in Shanghai has increased week-on-week, supported by expectations of tight overseas supply [10][16] - Nickel prices have decreased due to an oversupply of pure nickel, with domestic production expected to decline but still not improving the oversupply situation [21][23] - Cobalt prices are under pressure with low operating rates at smelters and weak demand from downstream manufacturers [24][29] - Antimony prices have decreased domestically while maintaining historical highs in Europe, with significant price differences between domestic and overseas markets [30][34] - Lithium carbonate prices have increased slightly, but the market is expected to remain weak due to high inventory levels and cautious demand from downstream manufacturers [7][8] Summary by Sections Tin Industry Update - The price of tin in Shanghai has risen to 264,400 CNY/ton, with a decrease in inventory levels [10][11] - Supply constraints are expected due to transportation bans and production issues in Myanmar [10][16] Nickel Industry Update - The LME nickel price is reported at 14,970 USD/ton, with a decrease in inventory levels [21] - The Philippines is considering a ban on nickel ore exports, which could tighten supply for Chinese smelters [21][23] Cobalt Industry Update - Electrolytic cobalt prices are at 234,500 CNY/ton, with weak demand and low smelter operating rates [24][29] - The market is cautious due to uncertainties in Congo's export policies [29] Antimony Industry Update - Domestic antimony ingot prices are at 207,500 CNY/ton, with a significant price gap compared to European prices [30][34] - Export controls from China are expected to impact global supply and pricing dynamics [30][34] Lithium Industry Update - Battery-grade lithium carbonate prices have increased to 60,700 CNY/ton, but the market outlook remains weak due to high inventory levels [7][8] - Supply from lithium mines is stable, but demand from downstream manufacturers is cautious [7][8]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the content. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rise in crude oil prices has driven the upward movement of styrene, but pure benzene remains relatively weak. In the short - term, the supply - demand contradiction of styrene has slightly eased, and the market shows a structure of stronger near - term contracts and weaker far - term contracts. In the long - term, styrene prices may be dragged down by the downward trend of pure benzene [1][4]. - For pure benzene, with the restart of previously shut - down units, supply will further increase in June, and it is expected to be in a significant inventory accumulation state. Attention should be paid to whether the blending oil demand will bring marginal changes to the supply - demand pattern [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Daily Market Summary - **Fundamentals** - **Price**: On June 11, the main styrene contract closed up 0.37% at 7349 yuan/ton, with a basis of 411 yuan/ton (+67 yuan/ton). The closing price of the main Brent crude oil contract was 65.0 dollars/barrel (-0.3 dollars/barrel), the main WTI crude oil contract closed at 66.9 dollars/barrel (-0.1 dollars/barrel), and the spot price of pure benzene in East China was 6040 yuan/ton (-25 yuan/ton) [2]. - **Inventory**: Styrene sample factory inventory was 19.1 million tons (+2.0 million tons), a 12.2% month - on - month increase; Jiangsu port inventory was 8.9 million tons (+1.4 million tons), a 19.4% month - on - month increase, indicating that styrene has started to accumulate inventory [2]. - **Supply**: Styrene maintenance units are expected to gradually resume operation in mid - to - late June, with an expected increase in supply. Currently, the weekly styrene output has increased by 0.4% month - on - month to 33.1 million tons (+0.1 million tons), and the factory capacity utilization rate is 72.3% (+0.3%) [2]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of downstream 3S products vary. The EPS capacity utilization rate is 46.4% (-12.3%), the ABS capacity utilization rate is 64.0% (+1.70%), and the PS capacity utilization rate is 59.2% (-2.6%) [2][3]. - **Viewpoints** - **Pure Benzene**: Affected by the restart of previously shut - down units, the operating rates of petroleum benzene and hydro - benzene have continued to rise, driving an increase in supply - side output. Overall, the downstream demand for pure benzene is basically the same as last week, and the supply - demand gap has significantly narrowed within the week. In the future, as some maintenance units gradually resume operation, supply will further increase, and it is expected to be in a significant inventory accumulation state in June [3]. - **Styrene**: On the supply side, the units are gradually resuming operation, and the current peak of styrene maintenance is basically over, with a steady increase in subsequent supply. On the demand side, the comprehensive demand for 3S products has significantly declined. As 3S enters the seasonal demand off - season, the demand support for styrene depends on the commissioning of several new PS and ABS units in the third quarter. The inventory in East China ports has increased significantly for two consecutive weeks. The spot market and the basis in late June continue to weaken under the expectation of increased supply, but there is still a certain price difference with late July [4]. II. Industrial Chain Data Monitoring - **Styrene & Pure Benzene Prices**: On June 11, the price of the styrene futures continuous contract increased by 0.04% to 7349 yuan/ton, the spot price remained unchanged at 7886 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 19.48% to 411 yuan/ton. The price of pure benzene in East China decreased by 0.41% to 6040 yuan/ton, the price of pure benzene (South Korea FOB) increased by 0.28% to 724.5 dollars/ton, the price of pure benzene (US FOB) remained unchanged at 790.5 dollars/ton, and the price of pure benzene (China CFR) decreased by 0.13% to 742.5 dollars/ton [5]. - **Styrene & Pure Benzene Output and Inventory**: From May 30 to June 6, China's styrene output increased by 0.40% to 33.1 million tons, and pure benzene output increased by 5.93% to 42.5 million tons. Styrene port inventory in Jiangsu increased by 19.44% to 8.9 million tons, domestic styrene factory inventory increased by 12.16% to 19.1 million tons, and the national pure benzene port inventory increased by 1.40% to 14.5 million tons [6]. - **Operating Rate**: From May 30 to June 6, the capacity utilization rate of styrene increased by 0.30% to 72.3%, the capacity utilization rate of caprolactam decreased by 1.59% to 86.9%, the capacity utilization rate of phenol increased by 3.80% to 78.8%, and the capacity utilization rate of aniline decreased by 4.61% to 65.8%. Among styrene downstream products, the EPS capacity utilization rate decreased by 12.25% to 46.4%, the ABS capacity utilization rate increased by 1.70% to 64.0%, and the PS capacity utilization rate decreased by 2.60% to 59.2% [7]. III. Industry News - Chinese Vice Minister of Commerce Li Chenggang stated that China and the US have reached a consensus on the trade framework and will report to the leaders. - The Russian Ambassador to the US said that a new round of Russia - US talks will be held in Moscow soon. - The US travel ban on citizens from 12 countries has come into effect [8]. IV. Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides charts on pure benzene prices, styrene prices, styrene - pure benzene price differences, SM imported pure benzene costs vs. domestic pure benzene costs, styrene port inventory, styrene factory inventory, pure benzene port inventory, ABS inventory, and the weekly capacity utilization rates of caprolactam, phenol, and aniline [9][14][15][18][19][21][24][25][26].