Macro Overview - The uncertainty surrounding tariff policies is expected to remain high in the future, with the U.S. imposing tariffs on China exceeding market expectations, leading to suppressed market risk appetite [3] - The U.S. tariff policy is seen as a temporary tool, with ongoing risks of fluctuating tax rates and expanded implementation scope [3] - Long-term risks include potential overestimation of tariff threats by the Trump administration and possible policy oscillations between "increases and exemptions," which could disrupt operational decisions for certain countries and industries [3] Domestic Macro - The economy showed a strong start in Q1, but growth may slow in Q2 due to external tariff disturbances [3] - Policy measures in Q1 have led to better-than-expected economic growth, but structural issues such as strong supply and weak demand persist, indicating a potential slowdown in recovery [3] - Increased external tariffs may negatively impact global economic growth expectations and put pressure on exports [3] - There is a need for continued policy support focused on domestic demand, particularly in employment, income, and social security, to address the weak demand situation [3] - As external tariff pressures rise, domestic policies are expected to respond actively to bolster domestic consumption and support steady economic recovery [3] A-share Strategy and Outlook - The global risk appetite is being suppressed by tariff pressures, leading to a phase of adjustment in A-shares after a revaluation [4] - The domestic economic fundamentals show a strong start, but internal momentum faces downward pressure, and market sentiment towards technology stocks has cooled [4] - The policy phase has shifted from negotiation to implementation, with a focus on observing the recovery of economic fundamentals [4] - The upcoming earnings season will shift market focus from valuation to performance fundamentals, with a potential shift towards high-quality and high-dividend stocks in the short term [4] - A defensive approach is recommended, with a focus on large-cap value/dividend stocks due to increased market volatility and uncertainty [4] - Patience is advised while waiting for the end of external uncertainties and potential domestic policy responses to boost market confidence [4] - The technology sector remains a key focus for the year despite current adjustments, with expectations of policy support to strengthen the sector [4] - Continuous attention to globalization and multi-asset opportunities is encouraged, particularly in overseas bonds and gold [4]

Group 1 - The report highlights the uncertainty surrounding tariff policies, particularly the recent announcements from the US that exceeded market expectations, which may lead to increased market risk aversion [5][20][23] - The economic performance in Q1 was strong, but there are concerns about a potential slowdown in Q2 due to external tariff disturbances and weak domestic demand [6][7][33] - The report emphasizes the need for policy measures to support domestic consumption and counteract external pressures, suggesting that the government may implement strategies to boost consumer demand [7][8][41] Group 2 - The A-share market is currently in a phase of adjustment following a revaluation, with external tariff pressures impacting global risk appetite and leading to a cautious outlook [8][10] - The report indicates that the market is transitioning from a focus on valuation to an emphasis on earnings performance as the earnings season approaches [8][10] - Defensive strategies are recommended, with a focus on large-cap value and dividend stocks, as market volatility increases due to external uncertainties [8][10] Group 3 - The report notes a mixed performance in major asset classes, with A-shares experiencing slight declines while gold prices surged significantly due to heightened uncertainty in international trade [13][14] - The performance of various sectors in March showed a divergence, with defensive sectors like coal, non-ferrous metals, and banking performing well, while growth sectors faced declines [15][16] - The report suggests that the technology sector remains a key focus for the year, despite facing short-term adjustments due to reduced market sentiment [8][10][16]

- The report mentions the "TWO BETA" model, which continues to recommend the technology sector, focusing on communication equipment and military industry[3][4][9] - The industry allocation model suggests a mid-term focus on sectors experiencing a turnaround, recommending industries such as new energy[3][4][9] - The timing system signal shows that the distance between the 20-day and 120-day moving averages of the Wind All A Index has narrowed to 3.28%, indicating a market in a volatile state[2][4][11] - The report suggests that if the trading volume falls below 1.1 trillion yuan, the market is expected to rebound[2][4][11] - The current PE ratio of the Wind All A Index is around the 60th percentile, indicating a medium level, while the PB ratio is around the 20th percentile, indicating a relatively low level[3][12] - The position management model recommends maintaining a 50% position for absolute return products based on the Wind All A Index[3][12] Model and Factor Construction - **TWO BETA Model**: This model recommends the technology sector, focusing on communication equipment and military industry. The model's construction details are not provided in the report[3][4][9] - **Industry Allocation Model**: This model suggests a mid-term focus on sectors experiencing a turnaround, recommending industries such as new energy. The model's construction details are not provided in the report[3][4][9] - **Timing System**: The timing system uses the distance between the 20-day and 120-day moving averages of the Wind All A Index to determine market trends. The latest data shows the 20-day moving average at 5253 points and the 120-day moving average at 5086 points, with a distance of 3.28%[2][4][11] Model and Factor Evaluation - **TWO BETA Model**: Continues to recommend the technology sector, focusing on communication equipment and military industry[3][4][9] - **Industry Allocation Model**: Recommends a mid-term focus on sectors experiencing a turnaround, such as new energy[3][4][9] - **Timing System**: Indicates a market in a volatile state, with the distance between the 20-day and 120-day moving averages narrowing to 3.28%[2][4][11] Backtest Results - **Timing System**: The distance between the 20-day and 120-day moving averages of the Wind All A Index is 3.28%, indicating a market in a volatile state[2][4][11] - **Wind All A Index**: The current PE ratio is around the 60th percentile, and the PB ratio is around the 20th percentile[3][12] - **Position Management Model**: Recommends maintaining a 50% position for absolute return products based on the Wind All A Index[3][12]

Group 1 - Recent economic data indicates a resurgence of inflation in the U.S., coupled with concerns over the potential impact of the upcoming "reciprocal tariffs" policy from the Trump administration and signs of weak consumer spending [1] - The US Credit Fear Gauge has risen to its most alarming level since August of last year, reflecting a sharp decline in risk appetite within the financial markets [1] - The Markit CDX North America High Yield Index has continued its downward trend, falling 0.6 points to 105.14, indicating an increase in credit default risk and the worst performance in seven months [1] Group 2 - As risk appetite declines, risk assets such as stocks and cryptocurrencies have seen significant weakness, driven by heightened concerns over the impending "reciprocal tariffs" [2] - Major U.S. stock indices experienced substantial declines, with the Nasdaq Composite Index dropping nearly 3% in a single day, marking a "Black Friday" for the markets [2] - The "Magnificent 7" tech giants collectively fell 2.95% this week, with Nvidia experiencing a weekly decline of 6.82% [2] Group 3 - The core PCE, a key inflation measure favored by the Federal Reserve, showed a month-over-month increase of 0.4%, the largest rise in a year, with a year-over-year increase of 2.8%, both exceeding previous values and economist expectations [3] - Consumer confidence in the U.S. has dropped to a two-year low, exacerbating concerns over sustained pressure on consumer spending amid escalating trade tensions [6] - The expectation of "stagflation" has significantly increased, with the long-term inflation expectations reaching a 32-year high, driven by tariff impacts [6]

Core Viewpoint - The ETF fund flow situation at the beginning of Trump's second term in 2025 is showing similarities to the first term, with significant inflows but a notable decline in investor preference for stocks compared to 2017 [2][5]. Group 1: ETF Fund Flow Trends - As of March 7, 2025, ETF fund inflows have reached $200 billion, marking a record high for the year [2]. - In 2017, the initial fund inflow was $101 billion, indicating a strong start for that year as well [2]. - Despite the overall market asset growth, the preference for stocks has decreased, with only 56% of investors favoring stocks in 2025 compared to 73% in 2017 [2]. Group 2: Performance of Top ETFs - The top 100 ETFs from 2017 are experiencing mixed results in 2025, with only half showing an increase [5]. - The ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK), which rose by 87% in 2017, has seen a decline of 15% in 2025 [5]. Group 3: Investor Risk Appetite - In early 2025, investors displayed a stronger risk appetite, with a record difference in fund flows between high Beta and low Beta ETFs [6]. - The S&P 500 index has experienced 14 days with declines exceeding 1% in the past 100 days, a significant increase compared to the previous year [6]. - In contrast to Trump's first term, where the S&P 500 did not experience any single-day declines over 1%, the current market shows a higher volatility [6].

中信建投固收｜固羽增收 - 信用性价比框架失效了吗 20250320 摘要 Q&A 当前信用债的性价比框架是否失效？ 我们认为当前的信用债性价比框架在某些情况下确实失效。尽管按照之前的性 价比框架，短端信用债已经进入了较好的投资区间，但市场环境和前提条件发 生了变化。自 2022 年起，我们观察到中短票的信用利差（3A 评级、3 年期限） 在 30 到 50BP 之间波动。然而，2024 年的市场调整显示，这一规律并不总是适 用。 • 信用利差受资产荒、流动性及风险偏好影响，2024 年公募基金增持长端信 用债，改变了市场调整模式，3-7 年期债券调整幅度超过短端，需关注资 金面和货币政策。 • 构建信贷性价比框架需满足资产荒、流动性稳定和风险偏好不变三个假设， 否则适用性受限。当前利率债供给增加，传统信用利差配置区间逻辑可能 变化。 • 股市与理财产品存在互动，散户资金流向影响债市，需关注市场分化。广 义基金仓位平衡时应防守，仓位低则需配置，关注资金面和货币政策。 • 2025 年初专项债发行扰动市场，央行紧平衡操作并引导资金中枢偏高运行， 需关注银行态度及其引导方式，而非简单解读为阶段性扰动。 • 当前资 ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall CPI and core CPI in February were lower than expected, indicating a downward trend year-on-year and a weakening trend month-on-month [2][12] Group 1: February CPI Analysis - The CPI year-on-year decreased from 3% to 2.8%, while the core CPI fell from 3.3% to 3.1%, both below market expectations [2][12] - Month-on-month, the CPI increased by 0.2%, below the expected 0.3%, and the previous value of 0.5%; core CPI also rose by 0.2%, against an expectation of 0.3% and a prior value of 0.4% [2][12] - The proportion of CPI items with a year-on-year increase exceeding 2% rose from 40% to 41.4%, while the core CPI items increased from 44% to 48% [12] Group 2: Structural Characteristics of CPI Changes - Food prices saw a decrease in growth from 0.4% to 0.2%, contributing less to CPI growth, with the impact of rising egg prices offset by declines in other food categories [3][14] - Energy prices dropped from 1.1% to 0.2%, significantly reducing their contribution to CPI, with gasoline prices shifting from a 1.8% increase to a 0.9% decrease [3][15] - Core goods prices decreased from 0.3% to 0.2%, with the main improvement attributed to a slowdown in used car price increases [3][15] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Economic Outlook - Concerns about stagflation have eased, leading to a recovery in market risk appetite, as the CPI data alleviated fears of rising inflation [6][19] - The market's response to the CPI report included a slight increase in long-term U.S. Treasury yields and a rise in stock indices, indicating a shift towards expectations of economic stabilization [6][19] - The Federal futures market still anticipates three rate cuts this year, but the probability of a May rate cut has decreased from 41.3% to 31% [6][20] Group 4: CPI Forecast for the Year - The forecast for U.S. CPI remains unchanged, with core CPI expected to be around 3% and overall CPI at approximately 2.5% for the year [9][21] - Quarterly CPI projections are approximately 2.7%, 2.3%, 2.4%, and 2.5%, with core CPI expected to be 3.1%, 3.0%, 3.0%, and 2.9% respectively [9][21]

宏观 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 02 月 24 日 [Table_Author] 分析师：陈江月 执业证书：S1030520060001 电话：0755-83199599-9055 邮箱：chenjy@csco.com.cn 公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 证券研究报告 1 月信贷表现提振风险偏好 [Table_ReportType] 宏观周报（2 月第 3 周） [Table_Industry] [Table_Title] [Table_Report] 2 [Table_BaseData] 经济预测（一致预期） 单位（%） 2409E 24E GDP（Q3E） CPI PPI 工业增加值增速 固定投资增速 社消增速 出口增速 进口增速 M2 增速 社融增速 [Table_S 核心观点： ummary] 请务必阅读文后重要声明及免责条款 请务必阅读文后重要声明及免责条款 市场有风险 入市需谨慎 - 1 - [Table_PageHeader] 2025 年 2 月 图表目录 | | | 数据来源：万得资讯 1) 权益：上周市场放量上涨。市场方面，国家主席习近平召开 民营企业座谈会，会议 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current macroeconomic environment in China, highlighting the importance of improving microeconomic expectations, innovation capabilities, and credit expansion to support market risk appetite and overall economic growth. Group 1: Microeconomic Conditions - The improvement in microeconomic expectations, particularly among private enterprises, has contributed to a significant increase in market risk appetite, with the Wind All A Index rising by 17.4% as of the end of February [1] - Technological breakthroughs, exemplified by innovations like Deep Seek and Spring Festival robots, have drawn attention to the innovation capabilities of Chinese enterprises [1] - The high opening of credit at the beginning of the year has opened up expectations for broad liquidity and credit expansion [1] Group 2: Economic Growth Conditions - The central economic work conference emphasizes the need to balance quality improvement and total volume expansion, indicating that corporate profitability will become a constraint as total pressure increases in the second and third quarters of 2024 [1] - The article outlines three necessary conditions for achieving nominal growth rates: effective recovery of consumption, stabilization of the construction industry, and reasonable price recovery [2][3] - In 2024, consumption is expected to recover effectively, with retail sales growth projected at only 3.5%, indicating significant potential for improvement [2] Group 3: Global Economic Context - The article notes a global "risk-off" sentiment, with major stock markets experiencing declines, including the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, which fell by 0.98% and 3.47% respectively [4] - The U.S. economy is facing risks of slowdown, with consumer confidence indices falling below expectations and personal consumption expenditures declining by 0.2% in January [5] - The potential for U.S. fiscal contraction is highlighted, with discussions around reducing the deficit from over 6% to 3% [5] Group 4: Liquidity and Investment - Narrow liquidity is expected to enter a phase of temporary easing, with broad liquidity likely to continue expanding due to government and corporate bond issuance [7] - The article mentions that the financing scale of government and corporate bonds in February is expected to approach 2 trillion yuan, significantly increasing year-on-year [7] - The focus on infrastructure projects is expected to accelerate, with the construction industry showing signs of recovery as funding rates turn positive [8] Group 5: Sectoral Insights - The manufacturing sector, particularly equipment manufacturing, is showing leading indicators of recovery, with industries like electrical machinery and automotive returning to pre-holiday highs [9] - The construction industry is experiencing improved conditions, with a notable increase in the recovery rate of construction sites and labor utilization [8] - The article indicates that while industrial raw material prices are generally declining, consumer goods prices are experiencing seasonal slowdowns, with no consistent improvement in inflation signals [10]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for "patient capital" to support early-stage, small, and innovative investments in the capital market, highlighting that the essence of patient capital lies in a higher risk appetite rather than merely long-term investment horizons [1][4][10]. Summary by Sections Patient Capital and Risk Preference - Patient capital is fundamentally characterized by a high risk preference, which is essential for supporting investments that are uncertain and have higher failure rates [4][10]. - The article argues that static and dynamic wealth effects are crucial sources of patient capital, with static wealth effects indicating that wealthier individuals typically have a higher risk appetite due to lower necessity for immediate consumption [4][20]. Static Wealth Effect - The static wealth effect suggests that as wealth accumulates, the marginal utility of wealth decreases, allowing wealthier individuals to take on more risk [20][24]. - Empirical studies indicate a positive correlation between income levels and risk preference, with higher income leading to lower risk aversion [25][26]. Dynamic Wealth Effect - The dynamic wealth effect highlights that the growth of patient capital is contingent upon the sustained prosperity of capital markets rather than the reverse [5][8]. - Historical data from the U.S. shows that longer investment horizons correlate with higher probabilities of positive returns, reinforcing the importance of a thriving stock market for attracting patient capital [5][6]. Role of Wealthy Individuals - Wealthy individuals are identified as a significant source of patient capital, as they can afford to invest in high-risk ventures without jeopardizing their financial stability [20][22]. - The article discusses the historical context of wealthy individuals funding early-stage ventures, illustrating their critical role in the development of the venture capital ecosystem [21][23]. Policy Recommendations - The article advocates for an expansionary redistribution policy, which includes central bank actions to support fiscal deficits and enhance the purchasing power of lower-income groups, thereby stimulating demand and economic growth [7][50]. - It suggests that combining estate taxes with donation incentives can effectively channel funds from wealthy individuals into patient capital, avoiding capital outflows [8][51]. Challenges and Considerations - The article notes that the current negative GDP deflator indicates a confluence of short, medium, and long-term demand deficiencies, necessitating policy interventions to address these issues [7][39]. - It emphasizes the importance of maintaining a favorable economic environment to support the growth of patient capital and mitigate risks associated with inflation and supply constraints [50][52].