1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The mid - term trend of the electrolytic aluminum market is a large - range consolidation. The Fed's potential delay in interest rate cuts in the second half of the year and the tense international situation restrict the upward space of aluminum prices, while the first cut of domestic 1 - year and 5 - year LPR this year supports aluminum prices. The supply - demand relationship remains strong overall, but tariff disturbances are significant, and the market is expected to fluctuate in the near term [4][12]. - The aluminum market is expected to experience a short - term decline followed by a rebound in the first week after the Dragon Boat Festival, but may face pressure around mid - June, with an overall expectation of a fluctuating market [12]. - The domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is approaching the 45 million - ton ceiling, and the annual output growth is limited. The global primary aluminum output growth rate is only 1.9%. The demand in the aluminum industry shows a differentiated pattern among different sectors, and the inventory of electrolytic aluminum is at a historically low level [9][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The mid - term trend is a large - range consolidation. The Fed's potential delay in interest rate cuts to July and December and the tense international situation restrict the upward space of aluminum prices, while the domestic LPR cut supports prices. The supply - demand relationship is strong overall, but tariff disturbances are large, and the market is expected to fluctuate. It is advisable to maintain the view of consolidation around 20,000, and short - term trading within the range of 19,500 - 20,500 is appropriate [4]. 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: For the SHFE aluminum 2507 contract, maintain the view of consolidation around 20,000, with an expected range of 19,800 - 20,500. It is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - band trading [6]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: For the SHFE aluminum 2507 contract, continue to maintain the view of consolidation around 20,000. It is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - band trading [7]. - **Hedging Suggestion for Spot Enterprises**: It is advisable to purchase and stock up as needed [8]. 3.3 Overall View 3.3.1 Supply - related - **Bauxite Market**: The short - term supply of domestic bauxite will remain tight. The impact of the rainy season in Guinea is gradually emerging, and the bauxite shipment volume from Guinea is expected to decline significantly from June [9]. - **Alumina Market**: As of May 29, the total built - in capacity of national metallurgical alumina is 110.82 million tons/year, and the total operating capacity is 86.67 million tons/year. The weekly national alumina operating rate increased by 0.19 percentage points to 78.21% due to the end of some enterprises' overhauls, but the operating capacity is still at a low level [9]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: In May, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is expected to remain at a high level. The second - batch capacity replacement project of an aluminum plant from Shandong to Yunnan is expected to start in the third quarter, and the first - batch project is expected to achieve output in May. The global primary aluminum output growth rate is only 1.9% [9]. - **Import and Export**: The theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is about 1,000 yuan/ton, and the order growth due to pre - export rush at the end of May is not obvious [9]. 3.3.2 Demand - related - **Aluminum Profiles**: The national profile operating rate increased by 1 percentage point to 57% this week. The building materials sector is supported by infrastructure project orders in the north, but some small and medium - sized enterprises in the north and south report limited infrastructure orders. The operating rate of photovoltaic frame sample enterprises shows a differentiated pattern [11]. - **Aluminum Plate, Strip and Foil**: The operating rate of leading aluminum plate and strip enterprises remained stable at 67.6%. The operating rate of leading aluminum foil enterprises remained stable at 71.6%. The short - term operating rate of the aluminum foil industry is expected to rise slightly [11]. - **Aluminum Cables and Wires**: The operating rate of leading aluminum cable and wire enterprises remained stable at 64.8%. The follow - up operating rate is expected to remain within a certain range [11]. - **Alloys**: The operating rate of leading primary aluminum alloy enterprises remained stable at 54.6%. The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises decreased by 1.6 percentage points to 53.0%, and the subsequent operating rate may continue to decline weakly [11]. 3.3.3 Inventory - related - **Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory**: The latest social inventory of aluminum ingots is 509,000 tons, a decrease of about 8% from last week and about 35% lower than the same period last year, at a low level since 2017. The aluminum rod inventory is 126,000 tons, a decrease of about 1% from last week and about 43% lower than the same period last year. The LME electrolytic aluminum inventory has been declining since May 2024 and is currently at a low level since 1990 [11]. 3.3.4 Profit and Market Expectation - **Alumina Profit**: The average cash cost of the Chinese alumina industry is about 2,600 yuan/ton, and the profit is about 700 yuan/ton [12]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Profit**: The average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 17,800 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 2,300 yuan/ton [12]. - **Market Expectation**: The social inventory of aluminum ingots is expected to continue to decline, but the trading atmosphere may weaken. The international situation may affect the overseas aluminum price and then the domestic spot aluminum price. Next week, the spot aluminum price is expected to fluctuate, and the trading range of electrolytic aluminum futures is 19,800 - 20,200 yuan/ton [12]. 3.4 Important Industrial Link Price Changes - The prices of some bauxite varieties remained unchanged this week, while the price of alumina in Henan increased by 2.95% week - on - week. The price of ice晶石 increased by 9.11% week - on - week, and the price of the SHFE aluminum main contract decreased by 0.42% week - on - week [13]. 3.5 Important Industrial Link Inventory Changes - Domestic bauxite port inventory has increased for 7 consecutive weeks, and it is expected that the arrival of aluminum ore at ports may decrease from June. Alumina inventory continued to decline slightly. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum and related products such as aluminum ingots and aluminum rods is at a low level, and the LME aluminum inventory continued to decline slightly [15][17]. 3.6 Supply - Demand Situation - For the whole year of 2025, domestic production growth is limited, and the import impact is weakened due to the inverted theoretical import profit. Domestic supply - demand is expected to tighten compared to 2024, but there is a high probability of becoming looser again in the seasonal off - season of June and July [18]. 3.7 Futures - Spot Structure - **SHFE Aluminum Futures Price Curve**: The current SHFE aluminum futures price structure is neutral to strong. Under the situation of low inventory and pre - export rush expectation, the spot price supports the futures price [31]. - **SHFE Aluminum Futures Price Monthly Seasonality**: From the statistical data of the past 10 years, the probability of rise and fall in May and June is relatively balanced. After the Dragon Boat Festival, the market may fluctuate slightly in the first week, but may face pressure around mid - June, with an overall expectation of a fluctuating market [35]. 3.8 Spread Structure - The LME (0 - 3) discount is 5.75 US dollars/ton. The A00 aluminum ingot spot reported a premium of 110 yuan/ton. The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 is about - 2,260 yuan/ton this week [37][42]. 3.9 Market Fund Situation - **LME Aluminum Variety Fund Trends**: The latest net long position remained stable, and both the long and short camps increased their positions. The short - term market may be in a consolidation phase [45]. - **SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum Variety Fund Trends**: The net short position remained stable this week, and both the long and short camps increased their positions, indicating increased market divergence. The short - term direction is not clear, and the market is expected to fluctuate [48].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report Crude Oil - International crude oil futures prices have been rising, supported by a weakening US dollar and geopolitical risks. The supply - side OPEC+ production increase has alleviated concerns, but trade frictions suppress demand. After the holiday, the short - term trend depends on the US dollar, geopolitical situation, and supply - demand re - balancing. Unilateral trading can be in a slightly bullish direction, with WTI in the range of [59, 69], Brent [61, 71], and SC [440, 500]. Pay attention to the rebound opportunity of INE spreads and consider buying a straddle option to capture post - holiday volatility [8]. Styrene - In June, the supply - demand of styrene is expected to gradually become looser, and the price remains under pressure. However, due to tight spot circulation, the near - end price may fluctuate. It is advisable to take a short - selling approach [2]. Chlor - Alkali - For caustic soda, short - term spot prices remain strong. Before the fundamentals significantly weaken or warehouse receipts flow out, consider expanding the spread between the near - month and September contracts. For PVC, in the long - term, supply - demand contradictions are prominent. In June, supply pressure is expected to increase, and demand is weak. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach, with an operating range of 4500 - 5000, while also paying attention to macro - level disturbances [30][40]. Urea - The core contradiction of urea lies in high supply and weak demand expectations. Currently, supply is abundant, and demand is in a seasonal off - peak. After the Dragon Boat Festival, the market will test whether agricultural fertilizer procurement can start effectively. If not, it may further pressure the market [44]. Polyolefin - For plastics, there is an expectation of inventory reduction in early June due to increased maintenance and less imports. For PP, supply pressure will increase as maintenance ends. Demand lacks sustainability after a round of replenishment. Unilateral trading for PP can be short - biased at high prices, and the LP spread is expected to widen [46]. Polyester Industry Chain - **PX**: In June, PX supply - demand is expected to be tight, but may weaken after mid - June. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level. Consider short - selling at high levels, gradually exit the PX9 - 1 positive spread, and look for opportunities to narrow the PX - SC spread [50]. - **PTA**: In June, PTA supply - demand remains tight but may weaken in late June. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level. Consider short - selling at high levels and exit the TA9 - 1 positive spread at high prices [50]. - **MEG**: In June, the supply - demand structure of ethylene glycol is good, with inventory reduction expectations. Consider buying EG09 at around 4200 and taking a positive spread for EG9 - 1 [50]. - **Short - fiber**: In June, short - fiber supply - demand is expected to be weak. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level following the cost. Consider expanding the PF July processing fee around 800 [50]. - **Bottle chips**: In June, bottle chip supply - demand is expected to improve, and processing fees will be supported. Consider expanding the processing fee at the lower end of the 350 - 600 yuan/ton range [50]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Price and Spread Data**: On June 3, Brent was at $65.12/barrel, WTI at $63.05/barrel. Some spreads such as Brent M1 - M3 and WTI M1 - M3 decreased, while SC M1 - M3 increased. Refined oil prices generally rose, and some cracking spreads decreased [8]. Styrene - **Price and Spread Data**: On May 30, most upstream prices decreased, and some styrene - related prices and spreads also changed. For example, styrene - pure benzene spread decreased by 2.5%. The supply - demand of styrene is expected to loosen in June [2]. Chlor - Alkali - **PVC and Caustic Soda Data**: On May 30, most PVC and caustic soda spot and futures prices were stable or changed slightly. Caustic soda exports had a small profit change, and PVC exports' profit increased significantly. In June, caustic soda maintenance is high, and PVC supply pressure is expected to increase [30][40]. Urea - **Futures and Related Data**: On May 30, most urea futures prices decreased slightly. Supply is high, with daily production increasing, and demand is weak, in a seasonal off - peak [44]. Polyolefin - **PE and PP Data**: On May 30, PE and PP futures prices decreased. Some spreads and basis values changed. In early June, plastics may see inventory reduction, while PP supply pressure will increase later [46]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Price and Spread Data**: On May 30, upstream and downstream prices in the polyester industry chain changed. For example, PX prices decreased, and some polyester product prices and cash - flows also changed. Different products in the polyester chain have different supply - demand and price trends in June [50].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜周报（5.26~5.30） 大越期货投资咨询部:祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目录 一、行情回顾 二、基本面（库存结构） 三、市场结构 期货主力 数据来源：博易大师 基本面 上周回顾 沪铜周评: 上周沪铜震荡小幅回落，沪铜主力合约下跌0.24%，收报于77600元/吨。宏观面看，地缘政治扰动铜价, 端午假期，美国关税再起波澜，全球不确定仍强。国内方面，消费进入淡季，目前来看下游消费意愿 一般。产业端，国内现货交易一般，整体还是刚需交易为主。库存方面，铜库存LME库存148450吨，上 周出现小幅减少，上期所铜库存较上周增7120吨至105791吨。 1、PMI 2、供需平衡表 3、库存 PMI 数据来源：Wind 供需平衡 2024供需紧平衡，2025过剩 数据来源：Wind 数据来源：Win ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates in June and July, with cautious monetary policy possibly lagging economic data. Trump administration's tariff actions may return, potentially harming demand - dependent commodities, while some commodity prices are near cost levels and may face industrial structure adjustments. There's also sensitivity to the risk of a sharp rise in US Treasury yields. OPEC+ will increase production in July, with supply growth expected but the timing uncertain, seen as a medium - to - long - term negative. The Russia - Ukraine conflict has escalated, and there should be sensitivity to geopolitical events. Overall, OPEC+ is likely to increase production, with supply - demand pressure and short - term geopolitical and tariff disturbances [2]. - The mid - term trading strategy is to sell high, short - term shorts can be held but with stop - losses due to geopolitical risks. Options can be considered for those betting on geopolitical changes and OPEC+'s unexpected policies [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Crude Oil Futures and Related Price Data - On May 30, Sc was at 447.90 yuan/barrel, down 19.20 yuan (-4.11%) from the previous day and 4.90 yuan (-1.08%) from the previous week. WTI was at 60.79 dollars/barrel, down 0.13 dollars (-0.21%) from the previous day and 0.97 dollars (-1.57%) from the previous week. Brent was at 62.61 dollars/barrel, down 0.75 dollars (-1.18%) from the previous day and 2.42 dollars (-3.72%) from the previous week [2]. - Various price differences such as Sc - WTI, Sc - Brent, and Brent - WTI also showed significant changes compared to the previous day and week [2]. 2. Crude Oil Spot and Related Data - OPEC's basket of crude oil was at 63.18 dollars/barrel, down 0.60 dollars (-0.94%) from the previous week. Brent DTD was at 63.96 dollars/barrel, down 0.29 dollars (-0.45%) from the previous week. Other spot prices like Oman, Dubai, and ESPO also had slight declines from the previous week [2]. - The premiums and discounts of different crude oils also changed significantly compared to the previous day and week [2]. 3. Product Spot and Related Data - Diesel (East China) was at 6826.18 yuan/ton, up 7.27 yuan (0.11%) from the previous day and 176.82 yuan (2.66%) from the previous week. Gasoline (East China) was at 7700.27 yuan/ton, up 4.91 yuan (0.06%) from the previous day and 67.00 yuan (0.88%) from the previous week [2]. - The price differences and ratios between diesel, gasoline, and Sc also changed [2]. 4. Inventory and Position Data - Sc warehouse receipts totaled 402.90 million barrels, with no change from the previous day. The US strategic petroleum reserve was 401.31 million barrels, up 0.82 million barrels (0.20%) from the previous week. US commercial crude oil was 440.36 million barrels, down 2.80 million barrels (-0.63%) from the previous week [2]. - CFTC non - commercial net positions were 16.57 million contracts, down 2.07 million contracts (-11.12%) from the previous week. Commercial net positions were - 16.91 million contracts, up 1.77 million contracts (-9.47%) from the previous week [2]. 5. Industry News - The US - Iran nuclear agreement negotiation may face a breakdown as the new US proposal is considered "incoherent and disjointed" by Iranian officials, and the next round of negotiations is uncertain [3]. - OPEC+ will increase production by 41.1 million barrels per day in July and will decide on August's production policy on July 6. Saudi Arabia's reasons for supporting production increase include appeasing Trump, regaining market share, meeting demand, and punishing cheating members [7][8]. - Canada's Alberta wildfires threaten nearly 50 million barrels of daily crude oil production [8]. - The Fed is likely to keep interest rates unchanged in June and July, with low probabilities of rate cuts [8].

Group 1 - The supply of soda ash remains in excess, requiring upstream low operating rates to maintain supply-demand balance, with high visible inventory levels in the midstream and upstream sectors [1][5] - Domestic soda ash is in a capacity expansion cycle, with new capacity of 2.5 million tons expected in 2024 and an additional 900,000 tons in the first quarter of 2025, leading to an overall effective capacity growth rate of approximately 5.6% by 2025 [2][4] - From August 2024, due to domestic soda ash surplus and declining prices, the export window has opened, with some producers actively exploring overseas markets, resulting in a net export status for soda ash [2][4] Group 2 - The float glass production is currently at a low level, with significant losses reported since July 2024, leading to an increase in cold repairs and a decrease in daily melting capacity from 170,000 tons to 158,000 tons [3] - The photovoltaic glass sector is experiencing a rebound, with daily melting capacity increasing to around 100,000 tons by the end of April 2025, although inventory levels are rising, which may hinder further increases [3] - Light soda ash demand growth is projected at 7.2% for 2024, but the growth rate for 2025 is expected to be lower at around 5.2%, with a year-on-year decline of 7.8% observed from January to April 2025 [3] Group 3 - The long-term outlook for soda ash remains oversupplied, with significant new production capacity planned for 2025, including 4.05 million tons from various producers [4] - The current high levels of visible inventory in the upstream sector indicate that while there may be short-term rebounds, sustained low operating rates will be necessary to maintain balance [5] - The forecasted operating rate for 2025 is approximately 83.7%, down from 86.4% in 2024, indicating a continued oversupply situation for soda ash [4]

原木期货日报 证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年5月30日 曹剑兰 Z00J9556 | 期货和现货价格 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 5月29日 | 5月28日 | 张跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 原木2507 | 766.0 | 758.0 | 8.0 | 1.06% | | | 原木2509 | 789.0 | 784.0 | 5.0 | 0.64% | | | 原木2511 | 792.5 | 789.0 | 3.5 | 0.44% | | | 7-9价差 | -23.0 | -26.0 | 3.0 | | | | 9-11价差 | -3.5 | -5.0 | 1.5 | | | | 7-11价差 | -26.5 | -31.0 | 4.5 | | | | 07合约基差 | -16.0 | -8.0 | -8.0 | | | | 09合约基本 | -39.0 | -34.0 | -5.0 | | | | 11合约基差 | -42.5 | -39.0 | -3.5 | | 元/立方米 | | 日照港3.9A ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - **Crude Oil**: Short - term: range - bound, Brent between 60 - 70 USD/barrel; long - term: potential for price rebound if certain conditions are met [2] - **Asphalt**: Stronger than the cost end, expected to be high - level range - bound, with the BU main contract between 3400 - 3600 [5][6] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: Fundamentals are weak, market under pressure during the summer off - season [7][8] - **Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil has certain support, low - sulfur fuel oil supply is increasing and demand is weak [10] - **Natural Gas**: US natural gas prices may rebound; European natural gas prices are supported but face uncertainties [11][12] - **PX**: High - level range - bound, supply is tight, downstream PTA supply is expected to increase and demand may decrease [13] - **PTA**: High - level range - bound, supply is expected to increase and demand may decrease, processing fees may be compressed [15] - **Ethylene Glycol**: High - level range - bound, maintaining a tight balance [18] - **Short Fiber**: Processing fees are expected to be strongly supported, with some supply changes [20] - **PET Bottle Chip**: Processing fees may be suppressed, with stable production and weak downstream demand [22] - **Styrene**: Range - bound and weakening, supply is expected to increase and demand is weak [25] - **Plastic PP**: Short - and medium - term: sell on rallies, with new capacity and weak demand [27] - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC: rebound and sell; caustic soda: short - term stable, medium - term bearish [29][30] - **Soda Ash**: Range - bound, short - term wait - and - see, bearish outlook [32][34] - **Glass**: Price is range - bound and weakening, short - term weak demand, medium - term focus on cost and cold repair [36] - **Urea**: Short - term weak, range - bound, pay attention to export and demand [37][38] - **Methanol**: Sell on rallies, supply is abundant and inventory is increasing [39][40] - **Log**: Spot is stable and weak, futures may have valuation repair [42][44] - **Double - offset Paper**: Market is stable, price increase is difficult to transmit due to weak demand [44] - **Corrugated Paper**: Market is stable with some increases, but terminal demand is weak [45] - **Pulp**: Try to go long on the SP main 07 contract, pay attention to inventory changes [48] - **Butadiene Rubber**: Wait - and - see on the BR main 07 contract, pay attention to support levels [51] - **Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber**: Hold short positions on the RU main 09 contract, wait - and - see on the NR main 07 contract [55] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2507 closed at 61.53 USD/barrel, up 0.33 USD/barrel (+0.54%); Brent2507 closed at 64.78 USD/barrel, up 0.34 USD/barrel (+0.53%); SC main contract 2507 fell 7.8 to 454.7 CNY/barrel, up 2.1 to 456.8 CNY/barrel in night trading [1] - **Related News**: US - EU trade negotiation deadline extended; US - China trade talks may resume; Iran - US talks made limited progress [1] - **Logic Analysis**: Short - term: supply initiative in OPEC's hands, possible price pressure if OPEC+ accelerates in July; long - term: potential for price rebound [2] - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term range - bound, medium - term weak; gasoline and diesel crack spreads weaken; wait - and - see on options [2] Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2507 closed at 3521 points (-0.09%) in night trading; BU2509 closed at 3472 points (-0.03%) in night trading [3] - **Related News**: Shandong market prices down, other regions stable; demand affected by weather [3][4] - **Logic Analysis**: Stronger than cost end, supply tightens, demand affected by rainy season, high - level range - bound [5][6] - **Trading Strategy**: High - level range - bound; asphalt - crude oil spread high - level range - bound; wait - and - see on options [6] Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - **Market Review**: PG2506 closed at 4116 (-0.91%) in night trading; PG2507 closed at 4064 (-0.54%) in night trading [6] - **Related News**: Southern market stable, northern market with minor changes, supply is abundant and demand is weak [6] - **Logic Analysis**: Cost - end price down, supply increases, demand is weak in the combustion end and may increase in the chemical field, market under pressure [7][8] - **Trading Strategy**: Not provided in a clear format Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU07 closed at 2992 (-0.40%) in night trading; LU07 closed at 3520 (+0.57%) in night trading [9] - **Related News**: Japan's fuel oil inventory changes; Singapore's market trading situation [9] - **Logic Analysis**: High - sulfur fuel oil has support, low - sulfur fuel oil supply increases and demand is weak [10] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see on single - side trading; close short positions on LU7 - 8 spread at low levels [11] Natural Gas - **Market Review**: HH contract closed at 3.344 (+2.49%); TTF closed at 36.45 (+0.26%); JKM closed at 12.585 (+1.74%) [11] - **Related News**: US natural gas inventory and production changes; European gas supply and demand situation [11][12] - **Logic Analysis**: US gas prices may rebound due to increased demand; European gas prices are supported but face uncertainties [11][12] - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on HH at low levels; range - bound and bullish on TTF [12] PX - **Market Review**: PX2509 main contract closed at 6652 (+38/+0.57%) on Friday, 6764 (+112/+1.68%) in night trading [12] - **Related News**: PX and PTA operating rates; polyester sales situation [13] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is tight, downstream PTA supply is expected to increase and demand may decrease [13] - **Trading Strategy**: High - level range - bound; long PX and short PTA; sell both call and put options [14] PTA - **Market Review**: TA509 main contract closed at 4716 (+14/+0.30%) on Friday, 4788 (+72/+1.53%) in night trading [14] - **Related News**: PTA and polyester operating rates; polyester sales situation [14][15] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is expected to increase and demand may decrease, processing fees may be compressed [15] - **Trading Strategy**: High - level range - bound; long PX and short PTA; sell both call and put options [15] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: EG2509 main contract closed at 4403 (-8/-0.18%) on Friday, 4417 (+14/+0.32%) in night trading [15] - **Related News**: Ethylene glycol operating rate; polyester sales situation [16] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply and demand gap may narrow, maintaining a tight balance [18] - **Trading Strategy**: High - level range - bound; wait - and - see on spreads; sell call options [19] Short Fiber - **Market Review**: PF2507 main contract closed at 6450 (-2/-0.03%) on Friday, 6524 (+74/1.15%) in night trading [19] - **Related News**: Short fiber operating rate and inventory; polyester downstream operating rates [19] - **Logic Analysis**: Operating rate decreases, inventory increases, processing fees are expected to be strongly supported [20] - **Trading Strategy**: High - level range - bound; short PTA and long PF; wait - and - see on options [23] PET Bottle Chip - **Market Review**: PR2507 main contract closed at 5988 (-4/-0.07%) on Friday, 6054 (+66/+1.10%) in night trading [22] - **Related News**: Bottle chip operating rate; export quotation situation [22] - **Logic Analysis**: Operating rate is stable, downstream demand is weak, processing fees may be suppressed [22] - **Trading Strategy**: Range - bound consolidation; wait - and - see on spreads; sell call options [23] Styrene - **Market Review**: EB2507 main contract closed at 7281 (-5/-0.07%) on Friday, 7317 (+36/+0.49%) in night trading [24] - **Related News**: Styrene and downstream operating rates [24] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is expected to increase and demand is weak, inventory may increase slightly [25] - **Trading Strategy**: Range - bound and weakening; wait - and - see on spreads; sell call options [25] Plastic PP - **Market Review**: LLDPE and PP spot price changes in different regions [25][26] - **Related News**: PE and PP inventory changes [26] - **Logic Analysis**: New capacity, weak demand, short - and medium - term sell on rallies [27] - **Trading Strategy**: Short - and medium - term sell on rallies; wait - and - see on spreads and options [28] PVC and Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: PVC and caustic soda spot price changes [28][29] - **Related News**: Shandong liquid chlorine price; PVC and caustic soda inventory and operating rate changes [29][30] - **Logic Analysis**: PVC: long - term oversupply, sell on rebounds; caustic soda: short - term stable, medium - term bearish [29][30] - **Trading Strategy**: PVC: sell on rebounds; caustic soda: short - term stable, medium - term bearish, sell on rallies; wait - and - see on spreads and options [31] Soda Ash - **Market Review**: Soda ash futures and spot price changes [31] - **Related News**: Soda ash production, inventory, and profit changes; demand from downstream industries [32] - **Logic Analysis**: Range - bound, short - term wait - and - see, bearish outlook [32][33] - **Trading Strategy**: Range - bound, wait - and - see, bearish; short soda ash and long glass; wait - and - see on options [34] Glass - **Market Review**: Glass futures and spot price changes [34] - **Related News**: Glass production, inventory, and profit changes; market price changes in different regions [34][35] - **Logic Analysis**: Price is range - bound and weakening, short - term weak demand, medium - term focus on cost and cold repair [36] - **Trading Strategy**: Price is range - bound and weakening; long glass and short soda ash; wait - and - see on options [36] Urea - **Market Review**: Urea futures and spot price changes [36][37] - **Related News**: Urea production, inventory, and export policy [37][38] - **Logic Analysis**: Short - term weak, range - bound, pay attention to export and demand [37][38] - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term weak; go long on 9 - 1 spread at low levels; sell put options [38] Methanol - **Market Review**: Methanol futures and spot price changes [38][39] - **Related News**: International methanol production and operating rate changes [39] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is abundant and inventory is increasing, sell on rallies [39][40] - **Trading Strategy**: Sell on rallies; wait - and - see on spreads; sell call options [41] Log - **Market Review**: Log spot and futures price changes [41][42] - **Related News**: Log arrival volume changes [42] - **Logic Analysis**: Spot is stable and weak, futures may have valuation repair [42][44] - **Trading Strategy**: Spot: wait - and - see; futures: go long for aggressive investors; pay attention to 9 - 11 spread; wait - and - see on options [44] Double - offset Paper - **Market Review**: Double - offset paper price changes in different regions [44] - **Related News**: Market order and price change situation [44] - **Logic Analysis**: Market is stable, price increase is difficult to transmit due to weak demand [44] - **Trading Strategy**: Not provided Corrugated Paper - **Market Review**: Corrugated paper and box - board paper price changes [45] - **Related News**: Market price and demand situation [45] - **Logic Analysis**: Market is stable with some increases, but terminal demand is weak [45] - **Trading Strategy**: Not provided Pulp - **Market Review**: Pulp futures price changes; spot price of different pulp types [46][47] - **Related News**: Pulp inventory changes; company performance [48] - **Logic Analysis**: Try to go long on the SP main 07 contract, pay attention to inventory changes [48] - **Trading Strategy**: Try to go long on the SP main 07 contract; hold 5*SP2509 - 2*RU2509 spread [48][49] Butadiene Rubber - **Market Review**: Butadiene rubber and related product price changes [49] - **Related News**: Styrene market situation [50] - **Logic Analysis**: Wait - and - see on the BR main 07 contract, pay attention to support levels [51] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see on the BR main 07 contract; pay attention to the support of BR2509 - RU2509 spread; wait - and - see on options [51][52] Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber - **Market Review**: Natural rubber, No. 20 rubber, and related product price changes [52][53][54] - **Related News**: Thai rubber import policy [54] - **Logic Analysis**: Hold short positions on the RU main 09 contract, wait - and - see on the NR main 07 contract [54][55] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions on the RU main 09 contract; wait - and - see on the NR main 07 contract; hold NR2509 - RU2509 spread; wait - and - see on options [55]

Report Overview - Report Name: Yangtze River Futures PTA Industry Weekly Report - Report Date: May 26, 2025 - Research Team: Cotton Spinning Team - Analysts: Hong Runxia, Huang Shanghai - Contacts: Zhong Zhou, Gu Zhenxiang 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term supply and demand of the PTA industry are acceptable, and prices will fluctuate within a range [25]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - PX: Last week, domestic PX production was 644,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.31%, and the weekly average capacity utilization rate was 76.83%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.24%. Due to the continuous decline in downstream polyester start - up, PX destocking slowed down. With the weakening support from the cost - end crude oil, PX prices gradually declined [2]. - PTA: Last week, PTA prices fluctuated and declined. The cost - end international oil prices weakened due to the expected increase in production. On the supply side, PTA start - up increased slightly, while downstream polyester load decreased slightly. PTA destocking continued, and the short - term fundamentals still had some support [2]. - Ethylene Glycol: Last week, ethylene glycol prices fluctuated and declined. At the beginning, due to the decrease in domestic production and imported arrivals, domestic ethylene glycol prices continued to rise. However, due to downstream enterprises' resistance to high - priced goods and the expected decline in cost - end oil prices, the short - term price maintained a volatile operation [2]. - Short - fiber: Last week, short - fiber prices fluctuated following the raw material prices. At the beginning, affected by the decline in the raw material end, short - fiber prices declined. Then, due to producers and traders being bearish on the future market and willing to sell at low prices, the spot and futures prices were dragged down. However, due to the tight liquidity of some goods, the decline was limited [2]. 3.2 Spot Analysis - As of May 22, the PTA spot price was 4,922 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2 yuan or 0.04%. As of the 23rd, the PTA spot price increased by 20 to 4,880 yuan/ton. There was a game between cost and demand, and the market was re - balancing future supply and demand. The absolute price fluctuated at the lower end, the spot basis was relatively strong, and the trading on the trading side was active, with overall quiet trading [4][6]. 3.3 PTA Upstream - Crude oil: As of May 21, the WTI price was $61.57 per barrel, a decrease of 0.08% from May 15; the Brent price was $64.91 per barrel, an increase of 0.59% from May 15. The main influencing factors were the ongoing differences in the US - Iran nuclear negotiations, the possible Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, the improved market expectations for demand prospects, as well as the easing of the Russia - Ukraine situation and the increase in US commercial crude oil inventories [7]. - PX: The domestic PX production last week was 644,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.31%. The domestic PX weekly average capacity utilization rate was 76.83%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.24%. The spread between PX and naphtha and the spread between PX and MX increased. Due to the unplanned load reduction or shutdown of some enterprises, the spot tightness of PX continued, and the spot purchasing power increased. As of May 21, the average PX - N was $268.47 per ton, a week - on - week increase of $22.05 per ton, and the average PX - M was $110.37 per ton, a week - on - week increase of $8.95 per ton [9]. 3.4 PTA Supply - Last week, the domestic PTA weekly average capacity utilization rate reached 77.22%, a week - on - week increase of 1.49% and a year - on - year increase of 5.39%. Zhongtai Chemical restarted, and Jiayun's No. 2 line was shut down for maintenance near the weekend. Overall, the domestic capacity utilization rate increased slightly [15]. 3.5 Ethylene Glycol Supply - China's total ethylene glycol capacity utilization rate was 55.38%, a week - on - week decrease of 5.66%. Among them, the capacity utilization rate of integrated plants was 55.59%, a week - on - week decrease of 6.39%; the capacity utilization rate of coal - based ethylene glycol was 55%, a week - on - week decrease of 4.42%. China's weekly ethylene glycol production was 332,900 tons, a decrease of 9.28% from the previous week [17]. 3.6 Downstream Demand - Last week, China's polyester industry's weekly production was 1,584,900 tons, an increase of 160 tons or 0.1% from the previous week. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of the polyester industry was 90.63%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.3%. The different trends of production and capacity utilization were mainly due to the maintenance of some polyester factories during the week, but the inclusion of Xin Fengming's new plant at the end of last week and the increased load of Xin Fengming and Hengyi's new plants this week [22]. 3.7 Terminal Weaving - Last week, the comprehensive start - up rate of major domestic weaving production bases was 57.65%, the same as the previous week. The start - up rates of different types of looms varied. Currently, the tail orders of domestic summer clothing fabrics are being gradually delivered, and subsequent orders are declining. With unclear new foreign trade orders, the off - season atmosphere in the market is becoming more obvious, and the inventory of grey fabrics has slightly increased. The local market still mainly consists of small - batch orders, and the sustainability of the overall order quantity remains to be observed [24]. 3.8 Market Outlook - PX: Affected by the expected increase in crude oil production, the cost support weakened. With the continued maintenance of domestic and overseas plants, it is expected that the weekly PX production will increase slightly, and PX prices will continue to fluctuate strongly [25]. - PTA: With the weak support from crude oil at the cost end, although some plants are planned to restart, overall production will increase. Downstream polyester load decreases slightly, and the destocking of supply and demand slows down. It is expected that PTA prices will fluctuate in the range of 4,650 - 4,900 yuan/ton [25]. - Ethylene Glycol: With the weak international crude oil prices and weak cost support, and considering the supply - demand pattern, it is expected that ethylene glycol prices will fluctuate in the range of 4,350 - 4,500 yuan/ton [25]. - Short - fiber: With the decline in PTA prices at the raw material end and the narrowing of processing fees, and the weak terminal demand, it is expected that short - fiber market prices will fluctuate and consolidate within a range [25]. 3.9 Strategy Suggestion - Enterprises should conduct hedging based on costs.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the oil and gas sector, including China National Petroleum Corporation, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, Sinopec, New Natural Gas, and Zhongman Petroleum [5]. Core Insights - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and developments in the Russia-Ukraine conflict are influencing oil prices, with the situation remaining tense as Israel prepares for potential actions against Iran [1][9]. - OPEC+ is considering further production increases, which may hinder oil prices from breaking through current levels despite the upcoming peak demand season [2][10]. - The U.S. oil production and refinery processing rates are on the rise, with crude oil production reaching 13.39 million barrels per day, an increase of 10,000 barrels week-on-week [3][11]. - The report suggests two main investment themes: focusing on resilient oil companies with strong dividend yields and those in the growth phase of natural gas production [3][12]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The geopolitical landscape remains unstable, particularly regarding Israel and Iran, which could impact global oil demand [1][9]. - OPEC+ is discussing a potential increase in oil production by 411,000 barrels per day for July, which could affect market prices [2][10]. - The U.S. has seen an increase in both crude oil and gasoline inventories, indicating a potential oversupply in the market [3][11]. Market Performance - As of May 23, Brent crude oil futures settled at $64.78 per barrel, down 0.96% week-on-week, while WTI futures settled at $61.53 per barrel, down 1.54% [2][38]. - The report notes a decline in the dollar index, which may influence oil prices, alongside a rise in Northeast Asia's LNG prices [2][10]. Company Performance - Key companies such as China National Petroleum Corporation and China National Offshore Oil Corporation are highlighted for their strong earnings potential and high dividend characteristics [3][12]. - The report provides earnings forecasts and valuations for major companies, indicating a positive outlook for their performance in the coming years [5].

大宗商品研究所 有色研发报告 有色金属日报 2025 年 5 月 22 日星期四 研究所副所长、有色及贵 金属板块负责人：车红云 期货从业证号：F03088215 投资咨询从业证号：Z0017510 研究员：王伟 期货从业证号：F03143400 投资咨询从业证号：Z0022141 研究员：陈婧 FRM 期货从业证号：F03107034 投资咨询从业证号：Z0018401 研究员：陈寒松 期货从业证号：F03129697 投资咨询从业证号：Z0020351 联系方式： 上海：021-65789219 北京：010-68569781 1.期货：今日沪铜 2506 合约收于 77920 元，跌幅 0.22%，沪铜指数减仓 6043 手至 52.50 万 手。 2.现货：现货商甩货，现货升水大幅下降。上海报升水 135 元/吨，较上一交易日下跌 140 元/吨。天津报贴水 70 元/吨，下降 70 元/吨，由于持货商对后市悲观低价出货。广东库存 和铜价均走低，持货商挺价出货，报升水 205 元/吨，上涨 20 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 1. 5 月 22 日，铜矿商自由港印尼公司称，其位于东爪哇岛、耗资 37 亿美元 ...