截至 2025 年 5 月 19 日，存量信用债估值及利差分布特征如下： 城投债： 公募城投债中，江浙两省加权平均估值收益率均在 2.5%以下；收益率超过 4.5%的城投债出现在贵州地级市及区县级； 其余区域中，云南、甘肃等地的利差也较高。与上周相比，公募城投债收益率基本下行，1-2 年品种平均下行幅度达 到 5.8bp。具体来看，收益下行幅度较大的品种的包括 1-2 年云南地级市非永续、2-3 年云南地级市非永续、1-2 年云 南区县级非永续、1 年内甘肃地级市非永续债。 金融债： 估值收益率和利差较高的品种有租赁公司债、城农商行资本补充工具。与上周相比，金融债收益率超过半数下行。具 体来看，租赁债是金融债中表现较优的券种，2-3 年私募永续、非永续债收益下行达到 9.1bp、4.9bp 之多；商金债表 现在期限间分化，1 年内品种收益率均向下，多数 1 年以上品种则有不同程度调整，其中，1-2 年大行商金债调整幅 度最大；银行次级债略显乏力，3-5 年永续债收益率一致下行，特别是城农商行品种下行幅度超过 3.5bp，2 年内国股 行二永债则普遍有所回调；此外，证券公司债中，1-2 年、2-3 年私募非永续 ...

对此，有业内人士认为，短期来看，利率下行将在客观上利好储蓄型保险产品的销售，但实际上，储蓄 型保险并不能代替银行存款。同时，存款利率下调进一步压缩了固定收益类资产的收益率空间，使得险 资资产配置难度上升。从长期来看，险企或将逐步降低新单产品的预定利率，与市场利率走势相适应， 缓解未来利差损压力。 5月20日，六大国有行年内首次调降存款利率，一年期存款利率跌破1%。这一消息在朋友圈快速刷屏， 不少保险从业者纷纷转发并解读称"转存是最好的选择"。 保险销售：朋友圈刷屏"转存最优" 行业观察：险企如何优化投资与产品策略？ "转存是最好的选择。""保险产品的更替还有一定的时间延迟（目前预定利率2.5%），大家抓紧。很多 时候，选择比努力更重要。"5月20日，记者在微信朋友圈看到，不少保险销售人员转发"存款利率下 调"的消息，并借机推介储蓄型保险，强调其长期收益优势。 记者梳理发现，此次工商银行、农业银行、中国银行、建设银行等4家大行存款挂牌利率调整后，活期 存款利率为0.05%；3个月、6个月、1年期、2年期定期存款利率（整存整取）分别为0.65%、0.85%、 0.95%、1.05%；3年期、5年期定期存款利率（整 ...

作者：招商银行研究院 零售客群部 私人银行部 | | 本期要点摘要 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 回顾 | 近1月 | 2025 年以来 | | 固收产品 | 含权债基>短债基金>高等级同业存单指基金 | 含权债基 > 高等级同业存单指基 > 短债基金 | | 收益回顾 | >中长期债基> 现金管理 | >现金管理>中长期债基 | | | 近一个月资金面进一步转松,中美关税大幅 | 1月偏强震荡，2月-3月中旬债市大幅回 | | 债市回顾 | 缓和、提升市场风险偏好,长债利率有所回 | 调，4月初债市快速走强后转为偏强震荡，5 | | | 升,短端利率相对稳定。 | 月中旬以来转为偏弱震荡。 | | 行业事件 | 1、中国证监会近日公开印发《推动公募基金高质量发展行动方案》。 | | | 跟踪 | | | | 展空 | 短期(1个月维度) | 中期(3-6个月维度) | | | -同业存单:预计利率偏强震荡。 | | | | 明显,私人部门融资需求偏弱;宏观政策兼 | 近期经济金融数据显示国内低通胀特征依然 | | | 顾积极有为和定力,"超预期"政策出台必 | | | 债市展望 | - ...

E-MAIL：zhangdd@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190522040001 证券分析师：吴步升 2025 年 05 月 19 日 投资策略 流动性与仓位周观察——5 月第 2 期：资金净流出，交投活跃度 上升 ◼ 上证综合指数走势（近三年） (20%) (12%) (4%) 4% 12% 20% 24/5/20 24/7/31 24/10/11 24/12/22 25/3/4 25/5/15 证券分析师：张冬冬 E-MAIL：wubs@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190524110002 资金净流出，交投活跃度上升。上周全 A 成交额 6.33 万亿，较前一 周上升，换手率 7.26%，较前一周上升，融资供给端中基金、两融净流入， ETF 净流出；资金需求端 IPO 规模为 13 亿元，再融资规模 42.7 亿元。市 场资金合计净流出 170.93 亿元，流动性转弱。 国内流动性：上周公开市场操作净回笼资金 3501 亿元，DR007 上行， R007 同步上行，R007 与 DR007 利差缩小，金融机构间流动性未见明显分 层。利差来看，10 年期国债收益率上升 5bp，1 ...

证券研究报告|固收研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 05 月 19 日 [Table_Title] 信用利差压缩行情启动 [Table_Title2] 信用周观察系列 [Table_Summary] 5 月 12-16 日，中美关税谈判取得超预期进展，4 月出口数据超预期走 强，但 PPI 同比与新增信贷则显著偏弱，空头力量占据上风，市场选 择阶段性防御，利率债收益率上行。在利率债震荡偏弱行情中，中短 端信用债凭借利差优势受到青睐，城投债 1-2 年收益率下行 3-6bp，利 差收窄 6-9bp。 从二级成交来看，信用债买盘热度小幅降温，城投债和产业债日均成 交笔数均减少，TKN 占比和低估值占比也有所下降。分评级看，城投 债变化不大，产业债成交向高等级集中，AAA-及以上成交占比由 51% 升至 55%。分期限结构看，城投债和产业债均拉久期。一级市场发行 情绪继续回升，城投债发行倍数 3 倍以上占比环比前周上升 6 个百分 点至 63%，产业债全场倍数 3 倍以上占比由 31%升至 38%。 往后看，长期债牛的观点不变，但是短期仍处在等待基本面变化的阶 段，债市或进入震荡期。而在震荡期内，波 ...

2025年1-4月回顾 截至2025年4月30日，沪深300指数累计下跌4.2%，保险Ⅱ(申万)下跌6.1%，跑输沪深300指数1.9pct。具 体看，A股新华保险-3.2%>中国人保-6.5%>中国太保-12.4%>中国人寿-13.4%，各家均下跌，仅新华和 平安跑赢沪深300指数。板块估值回调且表现弱于大盘，主要因2025年保险股面临较大的业绩高基数压 力，同时资产端长端利率下行、资产荒加剧等投资端核心压制因素仍在持续，负债端开门红新单销售不 及预期，保险股估值在去年修复到相对合理位置后，受以上利空因素影响回撤。 行业投资逻辑 保险公司盈利由承保利润和投资利润构成。承保利润受保费收入以及赔付和运营成本影响。投资利润取 决于投资收益和负债的利率成本，受资本市场、预定利率以及产品结构影响。该行认为保险行业2025下 半年将以资产负债结构调整优化为核心，演绎破局利差损困局的核心主线，若被验证将对重估保险配置 价值提供有力支撑。 智通财经APP获悉，兴业证券发布研报称，看好保险β配置机会，聚焦业绩确定性较强、资负匹配较优 以及业绩弹性较强标的。该行认为前期保险估值的回调已经充分反映当期利率下行以及后续业绩承压的 ...

智通财经5月19日电，摩根大通策略师Jay Barry在一份报告中表示，长期来看，穆迪下调美国评级可能 会导致利息支出增加，此举将使美债相对于匹配期限的隔夜指数掉期(OIS) 价格走低。 他们在周日一份 报告中写道，鉴于需求格局发生结构性转变，贸易和货币政策存在不确定性，短期内风险倾向于熊陡。 这一事件导致的波动程度应该会比4月初关税公告后出现的波动更小，因为投资者的仓位现在更加中 性，而且不太可能像上个月那样出现夸大基本面的市场波动。报告还称，在其他条件相同的情况下，穆 迪此次下调评级一档，应会使30年期掉期利差缩小约5个基点。然而，美债似乎已经显示出比其他类似 评级的发达市场主权债券更高的风险溢价，表明价格降低的幅度可能比这些系数所暗示的要小。 摩根大通：穆迪下调评级将推高美国利息成本 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the current bond market, short - term credit bond yield decline and spread narrowing space are limited. Traders can wait for a better position after market adjustment to participate in the game, and currently focus on certain coupon opportunities and consider allocation from the perspective of absolute yield [3][27] - Different investment strategies should be adopted according to the stability of the liability side. For those with weak liability - side stability, focus on 2 - 3y medium - and low - grade varieties and some 4 - 5y high - coupon, medium - quality individual bonds; for those with strong liability - side stability, allocate 4 - 5y varieties [3][4][27] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. How to Allocate Credit Bonds after a Significant Narrowing of Spreads (1) Credit Bond Market Review - This week, the capital price was low at first and then high. The Sino - US economic and trade joint statement significantly reduced bilateral tax rates, boosting risk appetite. Under the stock - bond seesaw effect, the bond market was under pressure. Interest - rate bond yields rose across the board, while credit bond yields showed a differentiated trend and performed better than interest - rate bonds. Bank secondary and perpetual bonds with significantly narrowed spreads performed weakly, with yields rising slightly and spreads narrowing passively. The yields of other credit varieties generally declined for 1 - 4y and rose for 5 - 15y, with spreads narrowing significantly for 1 - 4y and passively narrowing for 5 - 15y, with a smaller narrowing amplitude at the long end [1][11] (2) Credit Strategy: Focus on Certain Coupon Opportunities - **Current Credit Spread Level**: 1 - 2y variety spreads have been compressed to an extreme level, while the medium - and long - term spreads still have some room compared to last year's lowest point. In a volatile bond market environment, the further compression space of credit spreads may be relatively limited [14][24] - **Current Credit Bond Yield Level**: Currently, the yields of various credit varieties can generally achieve positive carry. Different varieties have different yield levels compared to R007 [25] II. Key Policies and Hot Events - On May 15th, the General Office of the Communist Party of China Central Committee issued the "Opinions on Continuously Promoting Urban Renewal Actions", which mentioned improving diversified investment and financing methods and encouraging financial institutions to participate in urban renewal [33] - On May 15th, Vanke announced that its major shareholder, Shenzhen Metro Group, would provide a loan of up to 1.552 billion yuan to the company to repay the principal and interest of bonds issued in the public market [33] - On May 13th, seven departments jointly issued policies to include high - quality enterprise science and technology innovation bonds in the benchmark market - making varieties to improve their liquidity [34] III. Secondary Market - This week, credit bond yields showed a differentiated trend, and credit spreads generally narrowed. Different types of bonds, such as urban investment bonds, real - estate bonds, cyclical bonds, and financial bonds, had different yield and spread changes [36][37] IV. Primary Market - This week, the issuance scale of credit bonds was 122.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 47.5 billion yuan compared to the previous week, and the net financing amount was - 15.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 19.7 billion yuan compared to the previous week. The issuance scale of urban investment bonds was 30.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 50.9 billion yuan compared to the previous week, and the net financing amount was - 24.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.4 billion yuan compared to the previous week [6] V. Trading Liquidity - This week, the trading activity in the inter - bank market and the exchange market of credit bonds increased. The trading volume in the inter - bank market increased from 432 billion yuan last week to 550.1 billion yuan, and the trading volume in the exchange market increased from 234.1 billion yuan last week to 336.2 billion yuan [6] VI. Rating Adjustment - This week, there were 2 entities with downgraded ratings and 3 entities with upgraded ratings [6]

证券研究报告 固收定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 05 月 18 日 信用利差被动压缩 联系人 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 本周（5/12-5/16）市场概览： 1）一级市场：本周信用债发行量、偿还量、净融资额环比上周均有所增加；本周 AAA 主体城投债、AA+主体产业债发行利率有所上升，其余各券种各评级债券发行 利率均有不同程度下行。 2）二级市场：本周信用债成交量环比上周增加 3350 亿元，传统信用债换手率较上 周整体上行；本周信用债收益率整体呈现短端下行，长端上行的态势；本周不同期 限的城投债信用利差均有不同程度压缩；本周产业债信用利差整体呈压缩态势；本 周不同评级和期限的银行资本债信用利差整体压缩，少部分期限和品种小幅走扩。 ——信用分析周报（2025/5/12-2025/5/16） 投资要点： 3）负面舆情：欣捷投资控股集团有限公司所发行的"23 欣捷 01"展期；武汉当代 科技投资有限公司所发行的"H20 科技 1"展期；西安曲江文化控股有限公司主体列 入观察名单，其所发行的"20 曲文控债 01"、"21 曲文控债 01"债项列入观察名单； 北京声迅电子股份有 ...

Core Insights - The insurance industry is transitioning from a focus on scale and speed to one centered on value and efficiency, as highlighted by the new "National Ten Articles" [1] - The low interest rate environment poses significant challenges for life insurance companies, leading to a shift in product offerings and business strategies [2][3] - Companies like China Merchants Life Insurance are actively transforming their product structures, moving away from fixed income products to floating rate products, which helps mitigate interest spread loss risks [3][4] Industry Trends - The life insurance sector has historically relied on savings-type products, leading to interest spread dependency, which is now being challenged by declining interest rates and market volatility [5] - The focus is shifting towards pure protection products, with health insurance becoming a key area of growth due to demographic changes and government policies [5][6] - The health insurance market is approaching a scale of nearly one trillion, with expectations for rapid growth driven by aging populations and health initiatives [5] Company Strategy - China Merchants Life Insurance has set a target for health insurance products to account for 61% of its offerings by 2024, with a significant increase in health insurance premium income [5][10] - The company is prioritizing high-end medical insurance, leveraging its strong distribution channels and expertise to capture market demand [7][8] - A comprehensive health management service system is being developed to differentiate the company in the competitive landscape, with a focus on integrating health services with insurance products [9][10] Financial Performance - In 2024, China Merchants Life Insurance reported a 19.74% increase in insurance business revenue, reaching 41.483 billion, with new business value growing by 38% [11] - The company achieved a net profit of 559 million, marking a 31.52% year-on-year increase, while maintaining strong solvency ratios [11]