Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - In 2026, the Fed will gradually slow down the pace of interest rate cuts, and the US government's vision to revitalize traditional manufacturing will restrict the growth rate of the global photovoltaic industry. China is expected to implement an expansionary fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, aiming for a good start in the 15th Five - Year Plan [3][57]. - In terms of supply, Xinjiang's production share has increased this year, while Sichuan and Yunnan's operations are generally low. New production in Inner Mongolia and Gansu has been released steadily. The number of operating furnaces has decreased, and social inventory is high. Silicon enterprises' production profits turned positive in the second half of this year. The planned new production capacity in 2026 is only 700,000 tons. Domestic cumulative production is expected to drop to 4.15 million tons this year and further to 4 million tons in 2026, a year - on - year decrease of 3.6% [3][57]. - In terms of demand, with the establishment of a new polysilicon platform company, a new sustainable industry ecosystem will be built. The production capacity of downstream battery and component markets will be further compressed, and photovoltaic terminal installations will enter a self - adaptive deceleration period. The silicone industry will enter a new balance cycle through production cuts. The aluminum alloy industry's production growth is limited due to the decline in construction and building materials demand. The overall demand growth rate of industrial silicon will continue to slow down in 2026, with a projected 3% decline in consumption growth [3][58]. - In 2026, the supply - demand structure of industrial silicon is expected to improve. The anti - involution policy will be further implemented. The photovoltaic industry will shift from high - growth to high - quality development, and the futures price center may stabilize and recover. The main operating range of industrial silicon in 2026 is expected to be between 8,000 - 11,000 yuan/ton [3][58]. Summary by Directory 2025 Market Review - In 2025, the industrial silicon market showed a trend of bottoming out and rebounding. The futures price dropped from a maximum of 11,130 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to a minimum of 6,990 yuan/ton in early June, a decline of 37.2%. In the second half of the year, due to supply contraction and improved market sentiment, the price gradually recovered. By December 12, the main contract SI2605 closed at 8,390 yuan/ton, a significant drop of 2595 yuan/ton compared to the end of last year, a decline of 23.6%. The annual price fluctuated between 6,990 - 11,130 yuan/ton [8]. Macroeconomic Analysis Fourth Plenary Session Focuses on High - Quality Development and Domestic Demand - China's traditional manufacturing faces internal and external pressures. The "15th Five - Year Plan" proposes requirements for economic development, including promoting high - quality development, technological innovation, and the development of strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials. The development of artificial intelligence is also emphasized in multiple aspects [11][12]. Dual Loose Monetary and Fiscal Policies for Stable Economic Growth - China's Q3 GDP grew by 4.8% year - on - year, and the cumulative GDP in the first three quarters increased by 5.2% year - on - year. The official manufacturing PMI in November was 50.2. The economy has maintained a stable and progressive development trend, with rapid industrial growth, stable employment, and increasing resident income. In 2026, China is expected to implement an expansionary fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy [14]. Fundamental Analysis Increasing Northern Production Share and Profit Turnaround in Southwest - In November 2025, China's industrial silicon production was 401,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.2%. From January to November, the cumulative production was 3.868 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.7%. Xinjiang's production showed a trend of low - to - high, while Sichuan and Yunnan increased production from the dry season to the wet season. The new production capacity in Inner Mongolia and Gansu was limited. In the context of anti - involution policies, the supply side has contracted [16]. Only 700,000 Tons of New Production Capacity Planned in 2026 - As of now, China's total industrial silicon production capacity is 7.879 million tons, with an effective capacity of 7.846 million tons. The new and expanded production capacity projects from the second half of 2025 to 2026 have significantly slowed down. The planned new production capacity in 2026 is only 700,000 tons, a significant drop compared to 2025. It is expected that the total production capacity in 2026 will reach about 8.3 million tons, with a decreasing growth rate [27][30]. High Social Inventory and Stable Export Growth - As of December 12, the social inventory of industrial silicon reached 561,000 tons, a 4.6% increase from the end of last year. The exchange's average warehouse receipt inventory was between 150,000 - 180,000 tons. From January to October, the export volume was 607,000 tons, a 1% year - on - year decrease. In 2026, the domestic social inventory is expected to be high in the first half and low in the second half, and the export growth rate is expected to be 5 - 8% [36][37]. Industrial Silicon Demand Analysis New Polysilicon Platform Company and Anti - Involution in Photovoltaic Industry - From January to November 2024, China's polysilicon production was 1.206 million tons, a 27.3% year - on - year decrease. In December 2025, the "polysilicon capacity integration and acquisition platform" was officially established. In 2026, the photovoltaic industry will focus on capacity regulation, price monitoring, and eliminating backward production capacity. The industry is expected to enter a new balance cycle [40][43]. Silicone Industry Enters a New Ecosystem - From January to November 2025, China's silicone DMC production was 2.272 million tons, a 4.6% year - on - year increase. After the industry's anti - involution meeting in November, enterprises reached a consensus on a 30% production cut and joint price support. The DMC price has rebounded from 11,050 yuan/ton to 13,600 yuan/ton. In 2026, the silicone production is expected to grow limitedly and enter a sustainable development model [44]. Limited Growth in Aluminum Alloy Production - From January to October, China's aluminum alloy production was 15.76 million tons, a 15.7% year - on - year increase. Affected by the real estate industry, the demand for aluminum processing products was weak. In the fourth quarter, there were both production increases and decreases in different regions. It is expected that the aluminum alloy production will maintain a low growth rate in 2026 [46]. Slowing Demand Growth but More Balanced Supply - Demand in 2026 - In 2026, the demand growth rate of industrial silicon will continue to slow down, but the supply - demand structure will be more balanced. The consumption growth rate is expected to decline by about 3% [47][48]. 2026 Market Outlook - In 2026, the Fed will slow down the interest rate cut, and the US government's policy will restrict the global photovoltaic industry. China will implement expansionary fiscal and monetary policies. The supply of industrial silicon will contract, and the demand growth will slow down. The supply - demand structure is expected to improve, and the futures price may stabilize and recover, with a main operating range of 8,000 - 11,000 yuan/ton [57][58].

权益市场，我们的观点也是八个字：风险可控，趋势未满。其实也能看出我们的核心思路，一是风险层面，我们认为风险主要来自市场信心和流动性层面。 比如今日市场受一些传闻影响，投资者可能对流动性产生一定担忧，而且叠加进入年底，流动性或阶段性出现波动，但这样的风险其实是可控的。"趋势未 满"指的是我们认为暂时开启下一波主升浪，可能还需要一定时间的震荡消化。接下来就从节奏上、空间上、方向上三个方向，跟大家分享我们对近期权益 市场的观点。 所以综合节奏、空间、方向来看，我们认为现在的市场处在风险可控、趋势未满的格局，逢低加仓、逢低布局是我们当下比较推荐的思路。 风险提示： 节奏上我们总结了八个字：上涨中继，震荡整理。首先从技术面来看，指数多次上攻未果以后，重回下方的震荡区间，阶段性压力得到了交易层面的确认， 这其实是引起近期市场中等幅度回调的核心原因。资金面来看，成交量呈现萎缩态势，此前每日成交常维持在2万亿甚至2.5万亿以上，高峰期更可达3万亿 以上的高举高打态势，但现在连续上攻的动能已经出现了阶段性的衰减，最近的每日成交几乎在1.5到2万亿之间。所以我们认为从节奏上来看，现在处于一 个上涨中继的平台期，震荡整理大概率是未 ...

昨日黑色板块商品普遍上涨，焦煤表现突出，涨幅超3%，领涨黑色板块，市场情绪好转，盘面成交活 跃。 焦煤上涨主要原因主要在于以下方面： 1、宏观层面，在反内卷等政策刺激带动下，市场情绪有所修复。由于前期焦煤价格调整较为充分，下 跌过程中盘面大幅贴水现货，情绪拉动下焦煤价格快速反弹。 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 黑色建材组 2、需求方面，临近年底，下游企业有刚需补库需求。同时在盘面反弹过程中，前期空头离场叠加下游 有补库需求，焦煤成交好转，流拍率持续下滑，现货与盘面小幅共振。 整体来看，当前蒙煤通关持续高位，汾渭口径下矿山维持减产累库，焦煤供需整体趋向宽松，动力煤现 货维持跌势，焦煤成本支撑较弱。盘面近月合约受仓单逻辑压制，远月焦煤受供应政策预期扰动，短期 缺乏明确的趋势性矛盾，需谨慎对待当前价格。关注市场情绪变化、煤炭现货价格及供应情况。 风险提示：宏观政策、煤炭供给、钢厂利润、焦化利润、基差风险等。 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289号 免责声明： 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to reach a milestone in 2025, with a total market value exceeding 100 trillion yuan and the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 4,000 points, marking a significant recovery and growth trajectory for 2026 [2] Market Performance and Drivers - The A-share market experienced a notable rally in the past year, driven by a policy shift and improved liquidity, with the rally beginning from the "924" policy change in 2024 [4][7] - The entry of state-owned funds at market lows significantly boosted investor confidence, leading to a noticeable inflow of incremental funds into the market [4][7] Market Structure and Future Outlook - In 2026, there is a cautious optimism regarding the overall market, with a potential shift in market style and a focus on sectors related to domestic demand, real estate, and cyclical industries benefiting from "anti-involution" policies [6][10] - The cyclical and value-related stocks, which lagged in 2025, may see a balanced rise in 2026, contingent on macroeconomic recovery and industry fundamentals [5][9] Key Investment Themes - The real estate sector is highlighted as a critical area for investment, as it is expected to stabilize and influence consumer behavior significantly [13] - Domestic consumption stocks, which underperformed in 2025, are also seen as having potential for recovery in 2026, despite current fundamental challenges [14] - The "anti-involution" policy is anticipated to create opportunities in cyclical industries, with signs of improvement already emerging in Q4 of 2025 [15][18] Valuation and Investment Strategy - The valuation methods for cyclical and technology growth assets differ significantly, with traditional assets relying more on current value assessments, while tech assets are evaluated based on future potential [19][20] - Investors are advised to maintain a long-term perspective and understand the underlying logic of their investments, emphasizing the importance of value investing [26]

【编者按】2025年，A股市场迎来里程碑式发展：总市值站上100万亿元的高峰，上证指数涨破4000点创下近十年新高。站在"十五五"规划的开局之年， 2026年A股市场又将如何演绎？哪些行业将孕育新的投资机遇？ 搜狐财经《基金佳问》栏目特别推出"基遇2026"专题系列报道，复盘A股市场细分领域年内行情，展望及预测2026年各热门赛道的投资机遇，把握后市资产 配置的主逻辑，寻找具有投资潜力的基金产品。 12月17日，永赢基金权益研究部总经理、基金经理王乾做客搜狐财经直播间，对2025年A股市场进行复盘，并展望了2026年的投资机遇与挑战。 过去一年，A股在政策转向与流动性改善的双重驱动下，走出了一轮显著的行情。王乾回顾称，此轮行情的起点可追溯至2024年"924"政策的转向，而2025 年的走势是去年四季度以来行情的延续。 政策效应最直接的体现是市场流动性的极大改善。 "早期国家队的入市，在市场比较底部的时候，给市场注入了非常多的信心。"王乾表示。后续随着行情 演绎，居民存款向非银机构转移等带来的增量资金入市迹象明显。 进入2026年，市场风格是否会发生变化？王乾认为，风格再平衡是2026年值得关注、研究和布局的 ...

Group 1: Asset Replacement and Financial Performance - The company is currently evaluating the feasibility and compliance of a major asset replacement plan disclosed in June 2023, which may significantly increase the proportion of related sales and impact the company's independent operational capabilities [2] - The company has faced losses due to higher sales and procurement costs compared to industry standards, exacerbated by long cold periods in Northeast China, but has seen improvements in performance year-on-year [2][3] Group 2: Profitability Improvement Measures - The company is focusing on developing high value-added products to narrow the competitive gap with leading steel enterprises, aiming to increase prices and gross margins through differentiated products [3] - Efforts to reduce procurement costs include strategic purchasing, product substitution, and optimizing inventory management to enhance operational efficiency and capacity utilization [3] Group 3: Convertible Bond and Financing Strategies - The company is preparing for the upcoming maturity of its convertible bonds by enhancing its market value management and exploring financing channels to ensure timely repayment [3] - Strategies include cost reduction, efficiency improvement, and professional integration to elevate the company's overall quality and valuation [3] Group 4: Industry Response and Operational Strategy - The company is committed to responding to the "anti-involution" policy by optimizing production based on market trends and ensuring stable operations while enhancing quality and efficiency [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that A-share overall profit growth is expected to increase from 6% year-on-year this year to 8% year-on-year by 2026, driven by accelerated nominal GDP growth, narrowing PPI contraction, supportive policies, and ongoing anti-involution actions that boost profit margins [1] - The anti-involution policies are anticipated to enhance capacity utilization, alleviate price competition, and promote profit recovery in overly competitive industries such as photovoltaics, batteries, chemicals, and cement [1] - The market is increasingly focused on profitability and shareholder returns rather than short-term earnings elasticity, indicating a qualitative leap in profit momentum [1] Group 2 - Investors are encouraged to pay attention to the cash flow ETF (159399), which has outperformed the CSI Dividend Index and the CSI 300 Index for nine consecutive years from 2016 to 2024 [1] - The underlying index of the cash flow ETF focuses on large and mid-cap stocks, with a higher proportion of central state-owned enterprises compared to similar cash flow indices, allowing for monthly dividend assessments [1]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **financial, raw materials, and transportation industries** [1][3][4]. Core Insights and Arguments Financial Industry - Current low interest rates may lead to financial mismatches, prompting central banks and banks to shift towards reasonable interest rate pricing [1][3]. - Social financing and M2 no longer have quantitative guidance, with loan growth stabilizing around **6%** [1][3]. - Personal loan growth is not significantly impacted by previous bad asset digestion [1][3]. - As of November, medium to long-term loans show signs of stabilization, while manufacturing investment has slowed to **1.7%**, below overall demand growth of **4%** [1][3]. - A balanced supply-demand relationship is expected to alleviate financial system risk concerns and industrial product price pressures, with a potential rebound in PPI by **2027** [1][3]. - Loan interest rates are stabilizing, which may gradually improve interest margins, and insurance yields are performing well [1][4]. - The financial sector is expected to benefit from government bond rates slightly rising, supporting fiscal policies to stabilize and enhance financial returns [1][4]. Manufacturing and Credit Demand - In **2026**, manufacturing credit demand is anticipated to weaken, while consumer loan growth is expected to decline due to high-interest consumer loan clean-up [5]. - The initiation of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and increased local special bonds will support infrastructure loan demand, stabilizing overall financing needs [5]. - Strict management of hidden debts and real estate risks will continue, leading to a reduction in overall financial risks [5]. Insurance Industry - The insurance sector has significant growth potential, with household financial assets growing at **12%** [6]. - Insurance products are competitive, providing guaranteed rates along with retirement and health services, with growth expected to exceed household financial asset growth [6]. - China Ping An anticipates its BNB growth to exceed **20%**, indicating substantial upside potential [6]. - The insurance sector is viewed as an important investment target due to its long-term double-digit growth potential and the increasing interest from U.S. investors in the Chinese insurance market [6]. Raw Materials Industry - The macro environment for **2026** suggests a weak dollar in the first half, potentially rebounding in the second half, with ample liquidity in both China and the U.S. supporting commodity prices [7]. - Strong demand for energy storage and supply disruptions are expected to drive prices of copper, aluminum, and cobalt higher [7]. - Significant mining accidents have led to a tight supply situation for copper, with global copper supply expected to remain flat [7]. - Recommended stocks include those related to aluminum, copper, gold, lithium, and cobalt, such as Zijin Mining and China Aluminum [7]. Aluminum Supply and Demand - Global aluminum supply is projected to decrease by **700,000 tons** due to factory shutdowns, while new supply is expected to be **1.4 million tons** [2][8]. - Overall demand is forecasted to grow by over **2%**, but demand in the photovoltaic sector is expected to decline by **30%** [9]. Congo Fund's New Quota System - The new quota system from the Congo Fund has led to a significant reduction in supply, with expected output only **40%** of previous levels, resulting in market tightness [10]. Anti-Overcapacity Policies - Recent government meetings have emphasized anti-overcapacity policies, potentially limiting new capacity in coal, steel, and cement industries [11]. Other Important Insights - The Thai market for J&T Express has shown significant success, becoming the largest express company in Thailand, with a market share exceeding that of the second to fourth competitors combined [12]. - The competitive landscape in Thailand's express delivery market is intense, with low costs due to favorable geographic conditions and balanced regional economic development [14]. - Long-term growth potential for J&T Express is viewed positively, but uncertainties in Southeast Asia's e-commerce landscape may affect valuation [15]. - The aviation industry has shown positive performance, with significant growth in passenger traffic and improved pricing power for airlines [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a view that the overall situation of treasury bond futures will be fluctuating with a downward bias, indicating a relatively cautious investment attitude towards the bond market [4]. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current interest rate is supported by the central bank and capped by the fundamentals. The restraint of the central bank's monetary policy, the disappointment in bond - buying, the redistribution of new funds between the equity and fixed - income markets due to the entry of long - term funds, and the unfalsifiable "14th Five - Year Plan" policies in the next year limit the significant decline in long - term interest rates. The trend of commodities and inflation expectations may make the bond market face more headwinds [3]. - The report maintains the view that the overall situation of treasury bond futures will be fluctuating with a downward bias. In addition to short - selling hedging at high prices and long - position substitution at low prices under the high - selling and low - buying framework, strategies such as positive spreads trading and long positions in inter - delivery spreads under the timing framework are also recommended [4]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Anti - involution Policy Consolidates the Inflation Floor 1.1 Inflation Floor Consolidation Disturbs the Pricing of Real Interest Rates - In 2025, the overall operation of treasury bond futures was tortuous. The market showed a high - level shock in the first half of the year and a fluctuating downward trend except in October. The 30Y - 10Y spread widened from about 10bp at the beginning of the year to over 30bp [7]. - The macro - economy remained in the bottom - shock pattern. Exports were affected by the Sino - US trade war in the first half of the year, and domestic demand recovery was not significant. In the second half of the year, the policy intensity declined, and the GDP growth rate slowed down in the third and fourth quarters due to weak downstream demand [7]. - The "asset shortage" of RMB assets still exists, but the structure has changed. The net long - position in treasury bond futures has decreased, and the market's expectations for the bond market have diverged. After the anti - involution policy, the bond market showed a fluctuating downward trend [9]. - The capital market reform policies have increased the importance of the equity market, and the "slow - bull" of the equity market has become the "political correctness" of the capital market. If the Fed cuts interest rates further and domestic policies are arranged beyond expectations next year, the equity market will continue to recover, and the bond market will only have structural opportunities [9]. 1.2 Monetary Policy Orientation and Micro - analysis of Treasury Bond Futures - The statements in the Q1 monetary policy implementation report indicated that the central bank's next - stage focus was to increase inflation, promote growth, and reduce costs. However, the bond market's recovery did not exceed the high at the beginning of the year. After the introduction of policies such as anti - involution and the resumption of the collection of value - added tax on bond interest, the market's inflation expectations and the central bank's orientation changed rapidly, and the market showed a fluctuating downward trend from the middle of the year [20]. - The Q2 report emphasized the importance of structure, and the Q3 report aimed to maintain a relatively loose liquidity environment. The central bank's bond - buying, interest - rate cuts, and reserve - requirement ratio cuts at the end of the year were less than expected. In the framework of the unfalsifiable "14th Five - Year Plan" policies and the relatively restrained monetary policy next year, treasury bond futures may continue to fluctuate within a range with a downward bias [20]. - In terms of market characteristics, the trading volume of the 12 - contract is limited, and the short - term inter - delivery spread may be positively correlated with the market. The basis has converged during the repair process since early June, and there is a demand for profit - taking in positive hedging. The curve structure has limited factors to support long - term steepening, and the steepening space may be reversed [21]. 2. Maintain the Judgment of Fluctuating and Downward - biased Interest Rates 2.1 Interest Rates are Supported by the Central Bank and Capped by the Fundamentals - Since 2015, China's interest rates have generally shown a downward trend, with three upward trends lasting more than a quarter. The duration and amplitude of these upward trends have gradually decreased, and the economic significance behind them has changed from fundamental and inflation - driven to short - term expectation and policy - driven [30]. - China has been in the passive de - stocking phase for nearly 34 months, longer than the 21 - month period in 1998. The GDP deflator has not turned positive. The second growth curve based on globalization and the real - estate model has encountered difficulties, and the future growth path depends on internal stimulus and external cooperation [30]. - Since the "9.24" in 2024, the policy bottom of the new economic cycle has been clear. The policy orientation of the financial sector is to guide long - term funds into the equity market. Although the fundamental recovery is still insufficient, the policy orientation makes it difficult for the market to break through the previous low of interest rates in the short term. Meanwhile, the limited elasticity of fundamentals and inflation restricts the upward space of interest rates, resulting in a fluctuating market where interest rates are supported by the central bank and capped by the fundamentals. In the long run, the inflow of funds into the equity market may lead to a fluctuating and downward - biased trend in treasury bond futures [31]. 2.2 Market Outlook for 2026 - The report maintains the view that the bond market will be fluctuating with a downward bias since the middle of the year. In addition to short - selling hedging at high prices and long - position substitution at low prices, strategies such as positive spreads trading and long positions in inter - delivery spreads under the timing framework are recommended [38].

Group 1 - The "Fenghuo Cup" private equity selection event organized by Changcheng Securities has attracted over 600 private equity institutions and more than 1,600 products since its launch in October 2025, covering seven core strategies including stock, index enhancement, neutral, arbitrage, CTA, bond, and combination strategies [1] - The event aims to provide ample time for participating institutions to showcase their investment capabilities, with registration open until June 2026 [1] - The initiative is part of Changcheng Securities' effort to create a supportive ecosystem for quality private equity growth, offering diverse resources and platforms for trading execution, investment support, and financing solutions [1] Group 2 - In the macroeconomic context, the current economic cycle is perceived to be in a relatively early stage, with policies aimed at supply-side reform generating positive expectations, although actual progress remains to be verified [2] - The consensus among fund managers is that there are still reasonably valued targets in the market, such as the food and beverage index's price-to-earnings ratio and the Hang Seng Index's price-to-book ratio, both at historical lows [2] - Investment opportunities in the technology sector are highlighted, particularly in AI, with a focus on hardware that has reasonable valuations and is part of new major industry chains [2] Group 3 - Looking ahead to 2026, it is anticipated that more aggressive monetary and fiscal policies will be implemented, with potential further declines in risk-free interest rates and an increase in the value of credit bond allocations [3] - The stock market outlook favors relatively undervalued sectors such as banking, food and beverage, and consumer electronics, alongside technology leaders in AI chips, semiconductor equipment, and computing power [3] - The difficulty of stock selection and timing is expected to increase, making industry ETFs a more cost-effective option for investment [3]