Core Viewpoint - Yunda Holdings reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 730 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 48.15%, indicating a phase of financial pressure [1] Industry Summary - The implementation of "anti-involution" policies is expected to promote rational pricing in the industry, coupled with demand catalyzed by the consumption peak season, which may lead to an increase in the average price per delivery [1] - Short-term growth in business volume is anticipated due to the consumption peak season, while long-term growth is supported by steady domestic economic growth and the expansion of consumption scenarios [1] - The accelerated construction of rural express delivery networks is expected to release demand for express services from both urban and rural areas, providing incremental space for the express delivery industry [1] Company Summary - The company is expected to enhance operational efficiency, alleviating cost pressures, as it continues to advance its "1+N+AI" multi-layered technology strategy, which empowers profitability and strengthens its competitive position in the industry [1] - Due to the pressure on delivery prices this year, the company has adjusted its previous profit forecasts but maintains an optimistic outlook for future operations under the "anti-involution" context, sustaining an "overweight" rating for the company [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - The price of copper rebounded slightly yesterday. In the medium - long term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward shift of the bottom center of copper prices. The main contract is expected to trade between 85,500 - 87,500 yuan/ton, and future attention should be paid to demand - side marginal changes and overseas liquidity [1]. Zinc - The Shanghai zinc futures oscillated at a high level yesterday. The supply - side pressure may be limited in the future, and the demand side has no outstanding performance. The LME zinc has upward pressure, while the export of zinc ingots may boost domestic zinc prices. The main contract is expected to trade between 22,300 - 23,000 yuan/ton [3]. Industrial Silicon - The spot price of industrial silicon stabilized, while the futures price oscillated downward. In November, the market still faces inventory accumulation pressure, but it is less than that in October. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level, mainly in the range of 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton [4]. Polysilicon - The spot price of polysilicon stabilized, the component quotation increased, but the silicon wafer price dropped significantly, and the futures price oscillated downward. The market is expected to oscillate at a high level, and attention should be paid to the spot support strength, platform company establishment, production control, and demand - side order increase [5]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand shows no obvious improvement. The market sentiment has improved, and long positions should be held. If the supply in Myanmar recovers smoothly, the tin price may weaken; otherwise, it is expected to continue to run strongly [7]. Alumina - The alumina futures oscillated at a low level yesterday. The supply pressure is high, and the cost support is gradually shifting down. The price is expected to continue to oscillate weakly, with the main contract reference range of 2,750 - 2,900 yuan/ton [9]. Electrolytic Aluminum - The electrolytic aluminum futures continued to oscillate at a high level yesterday. The market shows a pattern of strong macro - drive and weak fundamental support. The price is expected to fluctuate between 21,000 - 21,800 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to LME warehouse receipt flow, domestic inventory changes, and overseas macro - trends [9]. Nickel - The Shanghai nickel futures oscillated narrowly yesterday. The market is mixed with long and short factors. The price is expected to oscillate in a range, with the main contract reference range of 118,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to macro - expectations and Indonesian industrial policies [10]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel futures continued to weaken yesterday. The policy and macro - drive are gradually weakening, and the fundamentals have not improved significantly. The price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 12,400 - 12,800 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to macro - expectations and steel mill supply [12]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures ran strongly yesterday. The short - term fundamentals provide support for the price, but the upward movement of the futures is mainly driven by funds. The futures may oscillate and adjust in the short term, and attention should be paid to the end - of - year resumption of large factories and downstream marginal changes [14]. Aluminum Alloy - The cast aluminum alloy market oscillated strongly yesterday. Supported by cost and with a tight supply - demand balance, the ADC12 price is expected to oscillate strongly, with the main contract reference range of 20,400 - 21,200 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to scrap aluminum supply, downstream procurement, and inventory reduction [16]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price was 86,765 yuan/ton, up 0.27% from the previous day. The spot - futures basis and other price - related indicators showed different changes [1]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price was 22,660 yuan/ton, up 0.40% from the previous day. The import profit and loss, month - to - month spread, etc. also changed [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of East China oxygen - passing S15530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9,500 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 52.38% [4]. - **Polysilicon**: The average price of N - type re - feeding material remained at 52,200 yuan/kg, and the main futures contract dropped 3.33% to 51,930 yuan/ton [5]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin price was 287,700 yuan/ton, up 0.66% from the previous day. The LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 11.10% [7]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum price was 21,620 yuan/ton, up 0.60% from the previous day. The import profit and loss and month - to - month spread changed accordingly [9]. - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price was 121,300 yuan/ton, up 0.08% from the previous day. The LME 0 - 3 decreased by 2.68% [10]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) was 12,750 yuan/ton, down 0.39% from the previous day. The spot - futures spread increased by 24.66% [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price was 82,300 yuan/ton, up 1.92% from the previous day. The basis decreased by 858.62% [14]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price was 21,500 yuan/ton, up 0.23% from the previous day. The month - to - month spread and other indicators changed [16]. Fundamental Data Production and Import/Export - **Copper**: In October, the electrolytic copper production was 109.16 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.62%. In September, the import volume was 33.43 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 26.50% [1]. - **Zinc**: In October, the refined zinc production was 61.72 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.85%. In September, the import volume was 2.27 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.61% [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: In October, the national industrial silicon production was 45.22 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.46%. The export volume in October was 7.02 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.36% [4]. - **Polysilicon**: In October, the polysilicon production was 13.40 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.08%. In September, the import volume was 0.13 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.46% [5]. - **Tin**: In September, the tin ore import was 8,714 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.13%. In October, the SMM refined tin production was 16,090 tons, a month - on - month increase of 53.09% [7]. - **Aluminum**: In October, the alumina production was 778.53 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.39%. The electrolytic aluminum production was 374.21 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.52% [9]. - **Nickel**: In October, the Chinese refined nickel production was 35,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.84%. The import volume was 38,164 tons, a month - on - month increase of 124.36% [10]. - **Stainless Steel**: In October, the production of Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel (43 manufacturers) was 182.17 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.38%. The import volume was 12.03 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.70% [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In October, the lithium carbonate production was 92,260 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.73%. The import volume in September was 19,597 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.30% [14]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In October, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 64.50 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.42%. The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 28.60 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.06% [16]. Operating Rates - **Copper**: The electrolytic copper rod operating rate was 61.97%, up 1.54 percentage points from the previous week [1]. - **Zinc**: The galvanizing operating rate was 55.13%, down 2.41 percentage points from the previous week [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The national operating rate was 68.12%, up 6.18 percentage points from the previous month [4]. - **Tin**: The SMM refined tin average operating rate in September was 43.60%, down 20.3 percentage points from the previous month [7]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum profile operating rate was 52.60%, down 0.9 percentage points from the previous week [9]. - **Nickel**: There is no significant information about the operating rate in the nickel report. - **Stainless Steel**: There is no significant information about the operating rate in the stainless - steel report. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In October, the lithium carbonate operating rate was 56%, up 1.82 percentage points from the previous month [14]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The recycled aluminum alloy operating rate was 55.84%, down 1.7 percentage points from the previous week [16]. Inventory - **Copper**: The domestic social inventory was 19.59 million tons, down 2.10% from the previous week; the SHFE inventory was 11.50 million tons, down 0.95% from the previous week [1]. - **Zinc**: The seven - region social inventory of Chinese zinc ingots was 15.96 million tons, down 1.30% from the previous week; the LME inventory remained unchanged at 3.5 million tons [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The Xinjiang inventory was 11.21 million tons, up 3.70% from the previous week; the social inventory was 55.20 million tons, down 1.08% from the previous week [4]. - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon inventory was 25.90 million tons, down 0.77% from the previous week; the silicon wafer inventory was 17.52 million tons, down 7.45% from the previous week [5]. - **Tin**: The SHEF inventory was 5,992 tons, up 1.23% from the previous week; the social inventory was 7,033 tons, up 5.22% from the previous week [7]. - **Aluminum**: The social inventory of Chinese electrolytic aluminum remained unchanged at 62.70 million tons; the LME inventory was 54.5 million tons, down 0.37% from the previous day [9]. - **Nickel**: The SHFE inventory was 37,187 tons, up 1.19% from the previous week; the social inventory was 49,133 tons, up 2.14% from the previous week [10]. - **Stainless Steel**: The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) was 48.89 million tons, down 0.65% from the previous week; the SHFE warehouse receipt was 7.17 million tons, down 0.41% from the previous day [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In October, the total lithium carbonate inventory was 84,234 tons, down 10.90% from the previous month; the downstream inventory was 53,291 tons, down 13.50% from the previous month [14]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The weekly social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 5.58 million tons, up 1.82% from the previous week [16].

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the spot price is stable, production in the southwest region is decreasing, and the supply - demand pattern may improve. The industrial silicon futures market is mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy - related news. If there are policies promoting capacity exit, the futures price may rise as the current valuation is low [3]. - For polysilicon, the supply - demand fundamentals have slightly improved, but both supply and demand are weakening. The decline in downstream products due to weak consumption has led to a drop in the polysilicon futures market. The market is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, with large price fluctuations, and is expected to be mainly volatile [9]. Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - **Futures Market**: On November 11, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2601 opened at 9,265 yuan/ton and closed at 9,180 yuan/ton, a change of - 50 yuan/ton (- 0.54%) from the previous settlement. The open interest of the 2511 main contract was 270,959 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 46,079 lots, a change of - 176 lots from the previous day [1]. - **Supply Side**: The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,400 - 9,600 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9,700 - 9,800 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8,800 - 8,900 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8,800 - 8,900 yuan/ton. The silicon prices in various regions were flat, and the price of 97 silicon was stable. The domestic silicon - coal market showed a pattern of supply contraction, with a regional differentiation of "three increases, one decrease, and two stabilizations" since mid - October [1]. - **Consumption Side**: The quoted price of organic silicon DMC was 11,000 - 11,300 yuan/ton. As the monomer industry conference approached, most monomer factories had officially closed their offers and would resume quoting after the conference [2]. Polysilicon - **Futures Market**: On November 11, 2025, the main contract 2601 of polysilicon futures declined, opening at 53,600 yuan/ton and closing at 51,930 yuan/ton, a - 2.50% change from the previous trading day. The open interest of the main contract reached 138,468 lots (125,974 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 324,598 lots [5]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price of polysilicon weakened slightly. The price of N - type material was 49.40 - 55.00 yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers decreased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 25.90 (a - 0.77% change), silicon wafer inventory was 17.52GW (a - 7.45% change), the weekly polysilicon production was 27,000.00 tons (a - 4.30% change), and the silicon wafer production was 13.45GW (a - 5.55% change) [5]. Silicon Wafers - The prices of domestic N - type silicon wafers decreased. Two leading silicon wafer companies took the lead in reducing production, driving other companies to implement production cuts in November. The planned production in November is expected to decrease by 3 - 4GW compared to the previous month. The supply pattern of the silicon wafer market has deteriorated due to excessive contract manufacturing. In November, battery manufacturers tightened demand and limited procurement prices, leading to a sharp reduction in procurement orders and panic selling by second - and third - tier silicon wafer companies with tight cash flows. This caused the silicon material futures price to drop during trading on the 11th, but the spot price of silicon material remained unchanged as of the time of publication [7]. Battery Cells and Components - The prices of battery cells and components were generally stable. For example, the price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28 yuan/W, etc. The mainstream transaction prices of components also remained unchanged [8]. Strategies Industrial Silicon - **Unilateral**: Short - term range trading, and consider buying on dips for contracts during the dry season [4]. - **Other Strategies**: No cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options strategies are proposed [4]. Polysilicon - **Unilateral**: Short - term range trading, with the price expected to fluctuate between 48,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton [9]. - **Other Strategies**: No cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options strategies are proposed [10].

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic sector is experiencing a decline, with several key companies seeing significant stock price drops due to falling silicon wafer prices and weak demand in the market [1] Group 1: Company Performance - New Energy (01799) shares fell by 5.59%, trading at HKD 8.45 [1] - Flat Glass (06865) shares decreased by 4.49%, trading at HKD 12.75 [1] - Xinyi Solar (00968) shares dropped by 3.06%, trading at HKD 3.8 [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - Multiple silicon wafer companies have reduced prices, with 183N silicon wafer prices ranging from 1.25 to 1.3 CNY per piece, 210R at 1.28 to 1.3 CNY per piece, and 210N at 1.6 to 1.65 CNY per piece [1] - The silicon wafer market is facing a supply imbalance due to excessive outsourcing, leading to a sharp decrease in orders from battery manufacturers and subsequent panic selling among second and third-tier silicon wafer companies [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - CITIC Futures noted that the prices are expected to decline due to the lack of implementation of anti-competition policies, suggesting a complex market situation where a wait-and-see approach is advisable [1] - Despite weak terminal demand for photovoltaics, silicon wafer demand remains relatively high, with balanced production and sales of silicon materials within the month [1] - Future attention should be focused on the implementation of multi-product silicon platforms, the enforcement of price limits by silicon material companies, and the progress of capacity clearance in the photovoltaic industry [1]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃早报 2025-11-12 每日观点 玻璃： 1、基本面：供给低位企稳回升，但沙河地区"煤改气"等供应端扰动因素较多；下游深加工订单 整体偏弱，不及往年同期，地产终端需求疲弱，库存高位；偏空 2、基差：浮法玻璃河北沙河大板现货1052元/吨，FG2601收盘价为1036元/吨，基差为-17元，期 货升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国浮法玻璃企业库存6313.6万重量箱，较前一周减少4.03%，库存在5年均值上方运行； 偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：玻璃基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 2、风险点： "反内卷"政策力度超预期 1、地产终端需求 ...

Summary of China Coal Energy Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: China Coal Energy - **Industry**: Coal and Power Generation Key Points Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, China Coal Energy achieved a net profit of approximately 4.8 billion yuan despite a year-on-year decline in coal prices [3] - The company's operating cost per ton remained below 300 yuan, specifically around 250 yuan [3] - The electricity segment contributed about 500 million yuan to the net profit in Q3 [2][3] Coal Price Dynamics - Since October, thermal coal prices have surged by over 60 yuan per ton, with the Qinhuangdao port price for 5,500 kcal thermal coal exceeding 800 yuan [2][3] - The price increase is expected to persist due to seasonal supply-demand mismatches [2][3] Production and Sales - In September, the company's commodity coal production and sales declined year-on-year due to normal production fluctuations caused by mine relocations and weather [5] - The company is on track to meet its annual production target of 133 million tons, indicating strong production adjustment capabilities [2][5] Strategic Initiatives - China Coal Energy is committed to a high-quality and high-price strategy, ensuring safety and social responsibility [5] - 75% of long-term contracts are allocated for electricity coal supply, which will be maintained to ensure stable operations [5] Cost Management - Excluding the impact of special safety reserves, operational costs have decreased due to reduced machinery maintenance expenses, while labor costs have seen minimal reduction [6] - The company plans to utilize special reserve funds in compliance with national guidelines, with a minimum usage rate of 60% annually [6][9] Future Production Guidance - The company expects to maintain a self-produced coal output of around 130 million tons in 2026, with additional capacity coming from resource conversion and market auctions [7] - New mines, Li Bi and Wei Zi Gou, are expected to start production by the end of 2026, adding 6.4 million tons per year [7] Coal Chemical Business - China Coal Energy is advancing its coal chemical business towards high-end and differentiated transformation to enhance product value and prevent vicious competition [4][8] - New projects like Yulin Phase II and Ping Shuo are expected to significantly boost revenue and gross profit contributions once operational [4][8] Shareholder Returns - Despite high capital expenditure pressures, the company assures that dividend ratios will not fall below 30% and will be arranged reasonably based on overall corporate development [4][9][10] - There is no current plan to increase the minimum cash dividend ratio from 30% to 40% or 50% [10] Market Outlook - The company perceives limited impact from rising coal prices on its operations, as supply levels are expected to stabilize [12] - The overall demand remains decent, although there is a cautious sentiment among buyers due to market fluctuations [15] Regulatory and Competitive Landscape - The company is addressing competition issues with resource development companies and is committed to resolving these by May 2028 [10] - The recent acquisition of a 30% stake in Ping Shuo New Energy is part of a strategy to streamline internal ownership and enhance integrated development [10] Tax and Financial Planning - The use of special funds has led to a significantly lower effective tax rate, which may continue to influence net profits in the future [13] Production Trends - The company has not specifically tracked the sales of "downstream coal," as 75% of its resources are allocated for long-term contracts primarily with coastal power plants [12] This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call, highlighting the company's financial performance, strategic initiatives, market dynamics, and future outlook.

Summary of the Conference Call for Jingao Technology Industry Overview - The global photovoltaic (PV) demand is expected to be between 580-600 GW this year, with a slight increase anticipated next year. The domestic market's installed capacity is projected to decrease from 300 GW to between 270-300 GW, while the European market remains stable and emerging markets show limited growth [2][4][9]. Company Performance and Outlook - The company anticipates a year-on-year decline of approximately 10% in total module shipments, amounting to over 700,000 units, aligning with the initial expectations of self-discipline production limits and anti-involution policies [2][4]. - The delivery prices of modules have gradually recovered in the second half of the year, but the increase in silicon material prices has outpaced that of modules, potentially leading to weaker profitability in the fourth quarter, although a slight growth is still expected [3][18][19]. Pricing and Market Dynamics - The transmission of price increases from upstream silicon wafers and materials to downstream modules is challenging due to the dispersed customer base and significant differences between domestic and international markets [2][5][6]. - Domestic module pricing is primarily based on cost, with no malicious competition allowed below cost price. Prices are gradually stabilizing under policy support, but further recovery will depend on demand release [8]. International Market Insights - The overseas market is gradually recovering, with European distributors showing increased willingness to purchase as prices stabilize. Emerging markets, particularly in the Middle East and Asia-Pacific, are performing well and have a higher acceptance of price increases [7][10]. - The company is expanding its production capacity in Oman, with plans for 6 GW of battery and 3 GW of module capacity, aimed at enhancing overseas supply chain flexibility in response to new tariff measures affecting Southeast Asian countries [10]. U.S. Market Considerations - The U.S. market, while profitable, is significantly influenced by political factors. The company is closely monitoring geopolitical changes and tariff policies, adjusting strategies accordingly to address potential challenges [11][12]. - The company has sold its U.S. component factory to comply with the Inflation Reduction Act and is considering reducing equity stakes in its Oman capacity to meet regulatory requirements [17]. Future Demand and Production Expectations - For 2026, global PV installed capacity is expected to slightly increase to around 600 GW, with China’s market potentially declining while Europe remains stable and emerging countries grow rapidly [9]. - The second quarter of next year is viewed as a critical period for demand clarity, with potential price increases if demand rises [15]. Technological and Cost Considerations - The industry is currently in a profit recovery phase, with limited motivation for new capacity expansion. New technologies like TOPCon are being improved, while others remain in the experimental stage [21]. - The decline in per-watt costs has been minimal this year, as costs are already low, and significant technological advancements are slow to materialize [22]. IPO Status - The company is in the process of an IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, currently in the queue and meeting market capitalization requirements [23].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the economic indicators related to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI), focusing on the implications for the broader economy and specific sectors such as manufacturing and real estate. Key Points and Arguments Economic Indicators - October CPI increased month-on-month, with a core CPI rising for six consecutive months, indicating improved service demand and input inflation as key drivers [1][2] - PPI saw its first month-on-month increase, but year-on-year decline narrowed due to international oil prices, with new price factors contributing minimally [1][2] - The central bank's monetary policy report emphasizes a moderately loose stance, focusing on price recovery and total demand improvement [1][4] Future Economic Growth - Economic growth in Guangdong for the first three quarters was approximately 4.1%, lower than the national average, but this gradual decline is deemed acceptable by decision-makers [2] - National economic growth is expected to transition from 5% to a range of 4%-4.5% over the next few years, with a focus on quality rather than speed [2] PPI and CPI Projections - Input inflation is anticipated to be a significant source of price changes next year, with PPI potentially rising above 0% in Q3 or Q4 of next year [1][9] - Pork prices are expected to rebound in Q3 of next year, which will positively impact CPI [10] Export Trends - October exports showed a year-on-year decline of 1.1%, influenced by high base effects and global economic slowdown, but are expected to stabilize in Q4 due to easing trade tensions and Fed rate cuts [11] Investment Outlook - Global capital expenditure and manufacturing investment are projected to rise, driven by trade chain restructuring and a rebound in emerging markets due to lower interest rates [7] - The focus for investors should be on sectors benefiting from potential policy changes, such as real estate, and cyclical sectors like coal [3][17] Sector-Specific Insights - The real estate sector remains under pressure, with a need for lower loan rates to stimulate recovery, while the Hong Kong market shows strong activity due to favorable loan conditions [20] - The consumer sector is expected to see breakthroughs in service consumption, with policies supporting high-quality automotive development [20] Long-term Economic Expectations - The fiscal deficit and special bonds are likely to increase next year, with GDP growth targets remaining around 5% [21] - The Chinese stock market is viewed as having long-term bullish potential, with current levels presenting reasonable investment opportunities [21] Additional Important Insights - The impact of anti-involution policies on price improvement is limited, with weak terminal demand hindering effective price transmission from upstream to downstream [5] - The central bank's flexible policy approach indicates a readiness to adapt to changing economic conditions, which could influence market dynamics [15][16] This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call records, highlighting the economic indicators, projections, and sector-specific analyses that inform investment strategies and market expectations.

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market is influenced by various factors including macro - economic policies, supply - demand relationships, and geopolitical events. Different commodities show diverse trends based on their specific fundamentals [6][13][33]. - For macro - finance, the stock market is in a weak adjustment state, and the bond market has upward potential due to the expected implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy [10][11]. - In the black commodity market, the prices of steel and related raw materials are likely to remain weak in the medium - term, especially during the winter [13]. - For agricultural products, the prices of different products are affected by factors such as supply - demand, production forecasts, and market expectations [24][27]. - In the energy - chemical sector, the supply - demand imbalance in the oil market persists, and the prices of related products are expected to be volatile [33]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Macro - Information - The US will suspend the implementation of the export control penetration rule from November 10, 2025, to November 9, 2026. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce views this as an important measure to implement the consensus of the China - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur [6]. - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, emphasizing the importance of observing financial aggregates through indicators like social financing scale and money supply [6]. - Mexico delays increasing tariffs on Chinese goods, and the EU considers removing Huawei and ZTE equipment. The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs urges the EU to provide a fair business environment [7]. - The US Senate passes the "Continuing Appropriations and Extension Act" to end the government shutdown, and the House of Representatives will vote on it [7]. - The US "small non - farm" data shows a significant decline in private - sector employment, which is the largest monthly decline since March 2023 [8]. Macro - Finance Stock Index Futures - Adopt a wait - and - see strategy with a view of market oscillation. The A - share market is weakly sorted, and the inflation repair's sustainability needs further observation. The trade data in October shows a decline in export growth [10]. Bond Futures - Bonds still have upward momentum as the moderately loose monetary policy is expected to be implemented. The capital market has shifted from tight to loose, and interest rates are stable [11]. Black Commodities Spiral Steel and Iron Ore - In the medium - term, the black commodity market is likely to remain bearish. The demand for building materials is weak, while the demand for coils is stable but lacks elasticity. The supply of steel mills may decrease, and the probability of negative feedback is increasing. Iron ore prices are expected to decline due to the expected increase in supply [13]. Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke are expected to decline in the short - term. The supply of coking coal may increase during the heating season, and the demand for steel is weak in the off - season, but the price of thermal coal provides some support [15]. Ferroalloys - In the long - term, the surplus situation of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is difficult to reverse. In the short - term, a bearish strategy is recommended, but pay attention to cost changes [16]. Soda Ash and Glass - Currently, a wait - and - see approach is recommended. The production of soda ash has slightly decreased, and the cost has increased. The sales of glass have weakened, and the market is concerned about demand and inventory [17][18]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Lithium Carbonate - The short - term fundamentals are good, but the price may decline in the first quarter of next year. There are opportunities for buying on dips [20]. Industrial Silicon - The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the price is expected to oscillate within a range. There is a certain pressure on supply in the near - term, but the supply may decrease during the dry season [21]. Polysilicon - The price is expected to oscillate weakly. The negative feedback of demand is deepening, and the market is waiting for policy expectations from industry meetings [22]. Agricultural Products Cotton - The price is expected to oscillate at a low level due to increased supply pressure and weak demand. Pay attention to the agricultural reports from the US Department of Agriculture [24]. Sugar - The domestic sugar market is expected to be bearish in the long - term due to the expected increase in supply and the decrease in demand. In the short - term, the price is supported by cost and inventory [26][27]. Eggs - The futures market is strong due to the expectation of "capacity reduction", but the spot market is stable, which may drag down the near - term futures contracts. It is recommended to wait and see [28]. Apples - The price is expected to oscillate strongly. The inventory is low, and the price is relatively high. Pay attention to consumption trends [30]. Corn - Pay attention to the upward pressure on the price. The spot price has rebounded, but the supply pressure still exists, and the impact of policy - based wheat release needs to be monitored [31]. Red Dates - A wait - and - see approach is recommended. The weakening of the spot market in the sales area has a negative impact on the price [32]. Pigs - The supply pressure continues, and the demand is stable. A bearish strategy is recommended for near - term contracts [32]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The price is expected to oscillate. The supply - demand imbalance is expected to persist in the long - term, and the measures of OPEC+ to slow down production increase have limited support for the price [33]. Fuel Oil - The price will follow the trend of crude oil. The supply is abundant, and the demand is stable. The market is concerned about the supply impact of sanctions on Russia [35]. Plastic - The price is expected to oscillate weakly. The supply pressure is large, but the cost provides some support [36]. Rubber - The price may oscillate slightly stronger in the short - term. Pay attention to the spread between RU and NR and the selling of call options [37]. Synthetic Rubber - The price has stopped falling in the short - term. It is recommended to sell call options after the price rebounds [38]. Caustic Soda - A short - term bearish strategy is recommended, but the downward space is limited. Consider buying at low prices in the medium - term [39]. Asphalt - The price fluctuation is expected to increase after continuous decline. The focus is on the price bottom after the winter storage game [40][41]. Polyester Industry Chain - The price is expected to be strong in the short - term. Pay attention to unexpected changes in device operation [42]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The price is expected to be strong in the short - term due to the approaching peak demand season, but bearish in the long - term due to abundant supply [42]. Pulp - The price is expected to oscillate widely. The fundamentals are stable, but the upward space is limited [44]. Logs - The price is expected to be under pressure. The inventory is expected to increase, and the market is in the off - season [44]. Urea - A bearish strategy is recommended. The spot price has declined, and the futures price has also decreased [45][46].

Core Insights - In October, the National Bureau of Statistics reported a 0.2% year-on-year increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), driven by policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and the impact of the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays [1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, has seen its year-on-year growth rate expand for the sixth consecutive month [1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) shifted from flat in the previous month to a 0.1% increase, marking the first rise of the year, attributed to the effects of "anti-involution" policies that have improved supply and demand in certain industries [1] Economic Policies - The ongoing improvement in market supply and demand requires further release of the potential of "anti-involution" policies, which aim to optimize market competition and support reasonable price increases for related industrial products [1] - There is a need to enhance consumption policies to boost income and reduce burdens for low- to middle-income groups, thereby increasing their consumption capacity, willingness, and levels [1]