地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 7 月 01 日 热点品种 沪铜： 今日沪铜低开高走尾盘拉涨。中国 6 月官方制造业 PMI 连升两月至 49.7，新订 单指数回升至扩张区 16040 间，非制造业延续扩张。特朗普的高级贸易官员正在 缩减与外国达成全面对等协议的雄心，寻求达成范围更小的协议，以避免美国重 新征收关税。伊朗驻联合国大使强势表态：铀浓缩是伊朗不可剥夺的权利，永远 不会停止！基本面来看，供给端，截至 2025 年 6 月 30 日，现货粗炼费为-43.56 美元/干吨，现货精炼费为-4.35 美分/磅。目前铜冶炼端偏紧预期暂时只反映在 数据上，铜供应量依然在走强；库存端全球铜库存去化，其中套利驱使下，伦铜 大幅去化，美铜依然在快速累库，国内目前铜去化幅度较缓，主要系逢低拿货为 主。需求端，截至截至 2025 年 5 月，电解铜表观消费 136.35 万吨，相比上月涨 跌+8.08 万吨，涨跌幅+6.30%。受铜关税事件影响，铜出口需求增加，带动表观 消费量的提振。全球经济不 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have seen a significant pullback after reaching a historical high of $3,500 per ounce on April 22, 2025, with geopolitical factors and central bank purchases continuing to support gold, but prices may be nearing a peak due to weakening physical demand, increased supply, and a slower-than-expected rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1][6][12]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Total gold supply is projected to increase from 4,950 tonnes in 2023 to 5,190 tonnes in 2025, driven by mine production and old gold scrap recovery [2]. - Jewelry demand, which constitutes about half of global gold consumption, is expected to decline significantly, with a 21% year-on-year drop in Q1 2025 to 380.3 tonnes [21]. - Investment demand remains strong, with gold ETFs seeing a net increase of 7.94 million ounces in 2023, reaching 90.79 million ounces [14]. Group 2: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - Geopolitical risks have historically supported gold prices, but the market's response may have reached saturation, as evidenced by the failure to surpass the April high following tensions with Iran [6]. - The Federal Reserve's anticipated rate cuts are expected to be less aggressive than previously thought, which could negatively impact gold prices [12]. - Global trade growth is projected to slow, with only a 1.8% increase expected in 2025, which typically supports gold prices [9]. Group 3: Central Bank Purchases and Future Projections - Central bank demand for gold remains robust, with purchases expected to total 955 tonnes in 2025, although this is lower than previous years [28]. - HSBC has raised its average gold price forecast for 2025 to $3,215 per ounce, with a trading range of $3,100 to $3,600 per ounce [2]. - The forecast for gold prices in 2026 is set at $3,125 per ounce, indicating a potential decline in price momentum [2].

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) Vice President Luis de Guindos expressed concerns about the euro's exchange rate, stating that a rise above 1.20 against the dollar could complicate monetary policy, while the current range of 1.17 to 1.20 is manageable [1] - The euro has appreciated by 13.8% against the dollar this year, reaching a high of 1.1755 on June 30, primarily due to concerns over U.S. tariff policies and a crisis of confidence in dollar assets [1] - ECB President Christine Lagarde previously described the euro's strong performance as "counterintuitive but reasonable," indicating that the exchange rate is just one of many factors in policy considerations [1] Group 2 - Within the Eurozone, there are differing views on the exchange rate; Latvian central bank Governor Martins Kazaks warned that rapid euro appreciation could create dual deflationary pressures by lowering import costs and weakening export competitiveness [4] - Lithuanian central bank Governor Gediminas Šimkus also cautioned against the speed of unilateral appreciation, which could disrupt inflation control targets, despite the current exchange rate not breaching historical ranges [4] - In contrast, German central bank Governor Joachim Nagel expressed confidence in the current euro exchange rate, viewing it as close to long-term averages and emphasizing that the management board is more focused on overall inflation dynamics rather than a single exchange rate indicator [4] Group 3 - The ECB has broken its silence on exchange rate discussions, which is rare, especially after initiating a monetary easing cycle in June 2024 and lowering benchmark rates eight times since then [4] - The central challenge for the ECB is balancing inflation reduction with economic growth amid expectations of further rate cuts in September [4] - De Guindos highlighted the need to be vigilant about trade protectionism and geopolitical risks that could impact price stability, particularly the potential lagging effects of U.S. tariff policies on the European economy [4][5] Group 4 - As the July 9 deadline for tariff exemptions approaches, uncertainty remains in U.S.-EU trade negotiations, with the ECB predicting inflation could stabilize at the 2% target by 2027, but short-term risks are skewed to the downside [5] - The volatility of the euro exchange rate is not only a focal point for financial markets but also serves as an important indicator for the ECB's policy direction [5] - De Guindos emphasized that exchange rate issues should be viewed within a broader economic fundamentals framework, highlighting the importance of monitoring all factors affecting inflation [5]

Group 1 - Domestic refined oil prices will increase again on July 1, following two price hikes in June, with gasoline and diesel prices expected to rise by 235 and 225 yuan per ton respectively [1] - The adjustment mechanism for domestic refined oil prices is based on the weighted average price of international crude oil over the past 10 working days, indicating that prices are adjusted every ten working days [1] - The cumulative adjustment of gasoline and diesel prices in the first half of the year has seen a decrease of 330 yuan and 315 yuan per ton respectively, despite the upcoming price increase [2] Group 2 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the first five months of the year has shown a year-on-year decline of 0.4%, with refined oil prices categorized under the transportation and communication sector [2] - The increase in refined oil prices may not directly lead to a rise in CPI, as CPI changes depend on various independent factors, and the transmission of oil price increases to consumer goods and services may experience delays [2] - A substantial recovery in CPI is contingent upon domestic demand recovery, rather than solely on the increase in refined oil prices [2]

潮新闻客户端 记者 吴恩慧 接连调整几天之后，今天，国际黄金价格突然上涨。 截至7月1日17点发稿时，伦敦现货黄金日内涨幅涨超1%，接近3340美元/盎司，COMEX黄金期货涨1.3%，站上3350美元/盎司。 | 17:00 | | "l ? □ | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 A | COMEX黄金 | | | | | GC.CMX | | | | 3350.6 | 昨结 3307.7 总手 | | 5.40 | | +42.9 | +1.30% / 1 3315.7 现手 | | | | 最高价 | 3354.3 持 仓 31.86万 外 盘 | | 2.3 | | 最低价 | 3313.7 壇 仓 内 壹 1455 | | 3.11 | | 分时 | 五日 周K | | 日名 | | 叠加 | 均价:3336.3 | | | | 3354.3 ... | ---------------------- | | 3350.9 3350.7 | | | | 4:44 | 3351.1 | | AM | | 4:44 | 3351.2 | | 3307.7 | 0.00% ...

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 黄金铂金比创下50年来最大两个月跌幅 走势——而无论如何，这都意味着未来数月美股前景显著恶化。 赫伯特上一次提及该比率是在3月初，当时市场普遍预测新一轮熊市降临，但因黄金铂金比彼时处于强 劲上升趋势，其追随者仍保持看涨，事实证明他是对的。标普500指数此后累计上涨约8%。 过去数年的大部分时间里，该比率一直处于稳定上升趋势，但自4月中旬以来，铂金价格飙升超40%而 黄金持稳略跌，导致黄金铂金比骤降，这对股市短期前景而言绝非吉兆。 研究作者称，该比率之所以能成为良好的短期市场择时指标，是因为它是地缘政治风险的敏感替代指标 ——尽管黄金和铂金均具工业用途且往往在经济强劲时上涨，但黄金与地缘政治风险存在相关性。因此 当该比率下跌时，意味着市场认为经济相对地缘风险而言更为强劲。 人们可能会对此感到惊讶：为何黄金铂金比下跌暗示市场前景黯淡？若经济相对地缘风险更强，难道不 是好事吗？要理解这一问题，需区分该比率作为同步指标与领先指标的差异：作为同步指标，比率下跌 时股市往往表现优于平均水平，这正是我们过去两个月所经历的；而作为领先指标时，情况则相反—— 当比率下跌时，投资者对先前高企 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic retail prices of refined oil in China have increased for the third consecutive time, marking the sixth adjustment of the year, driven by fluctuations in international oil prices and seasonal demand [1][2]. Price Adjustments - As of July 1, 2025, the prices for gasoline and diesel will rise by 235 yuan and 225 yuan per ton, respectively [2]. - The price increase translates to an additional cost of 0.18 yuan per liter for 92-octane gasoline, 0.19 yuan for 95-octane gasoline, and 0.19 yuan for 0-octane diesel [3]. Market Dynamics - The domestic refined oil market has experienced a mixed trend, with prices initially rising due to strong international oil prices, followed by a slight decline, but ultimately closing higher [4]. - The third quarter is expected to be a peak consumption season for refined oil, with increased demand driven by summer travel [4]. Demand Insights - Gasoline demand remains stable, while diesel demand is weaker due to seasonal factors and adverse weather conditions affecting outdoor work [5]. - Analysts predict that gasoline prices will stabilize with slight fluctuations, while diesel prices may face downward pressure [4][7]. International Oil Market - International oil prices have recently declined from high levels, influenced by easing geopolitical tensions and an increase in supply [8]. - OPEC+ has agreed to raise oil production by 411,000 barrels per day in July, continuing a trend of increased output [8][9]. Future Outlook - The market anticipates that OPEC+ will maintain a significant production increase in the coming months, which may exert downward pressure on oil prices [9]. - The overall sentiment in the oil market remains cautious, with expectations of continued fluctuations in international oil prices [9].

Group 1 - Citi forecasts that gold prices will decline due to easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and improving global economic growth prospects, expecting prices to fall to $2500 to $2700 per ounce by the second half of 2026 [1] - In the third quarter, gold prices are expected to stabilize between $3100 and $3500 per ounce, with the supply-demand gap in the gold market peaking during this period [1] - Citi has shifted its outlook from bullish to bearish on gold, advising mining companies to take protective measures against potential price declines [1] Group 2 - Citi anticipates that the Federal Reserve will implement three rate cuts in 2025, which could impact gold prices as they typically have an inverse relationship with interest rates [3] - Other institutions remain optimistic about gold, with Morgan Stanley predicting prices could reach $6000 per ounce by 2029, requiring an 80% increase from current levels [4] - Goldman Sachs projects that gold prices will rise to $3700 per ounce by the end of 2025, with Bank of America also forecasting prices to exceed $4000 per ounce by the same time [4]

一、日度市场总结 6月30日原油市场呈现分化格局，SC原油主力合约结算价小幅回落至496.7 元/桶，周度累计下跌0.36%，盘中连续测试500元整数关口支撑。相比之 下，WTI与Brent油价横盘僵持于65和66美元/桶区间，周内振幅不足0.5美 元。值得注意的是，SC与国际基准油种的价差持续收窄，SC-Brent价差从 周初的5.41美元连续压缩至2.98美元，月间价差SC连续-连3则逆势走强0.8 元，反映亚洲时段原油远期曲线结构呈现近弱远强特征。 从供给端观察，中东地缘风险溢价加速消退成为主要利空驱动。海法炼油 厂的快速复工（预计10月全面复产）显著缓解市场对伊朗核设施冲突升级 的担忧，叠加OPEC+产量政策调整窗口临近，8月会议可能推进补偿性增产 的预期令市场承压。与此同时，燃料油市场结构变化值得关注：低硫燃料 油仓单单日暴增15000吨，显示亚太地区炼厂正通过调整出率应对即将实行 的IMO2026环保新规，这可能刺激高硫燃料油被动减产后端的原油需求。 地缘溢价消退与价差收窄压制原油市场 需求侧则呈现多空交织局面。美国夏季出行旺季支撑炼厂开工率维持高 位，美战略石油储备补库需求与馏分油库存下降形成短 ...

Core Viewpoint - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects Switzerland's economic growth rate to be 1.2% in 2026, highlighting significant risks, particularly external ones [1] Economic Outlook - Switzerland's economy is facing major risks, especially from external factors such as geopolitical tensions, fluctuations in energy prices, trade uncertainties, and tariffs [1]