Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the dual influence of easing geopolitical tensions and rising expectations for interest rate cuts on gold prices [3][4][11] - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have temporarily eased, leading to a significant reduction in gold's safe-haven demand, particularly after the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran [3][11] - The market is currently experiencing a cautious outlook on the economy, reflected in the slight decline of the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to around 4.3% [1][4] Group 2 - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September has risen to 74.9%, driven by weak U.S. economic data, including a contraction in Q1 GDP [4][10] - The U.S. dollar index has fallen to a three-year low, theoretically supporting gold prices; however, concerns over "stagflation" are diminishing this positive effect [5][11] - The upcoming release of the U.S. core PCE price index is expected to be a key catalyst for breaking the current price range of gold, with a higher-than-expected reading potentially reinforcing the Fed's stance on maintaining high rates [10][11] Group 3 - The technical analysis indicates a fluctuating pattern for gold prices, oscillating between $3,300 and $3,340, with market sentiment remaining cautious [7][11] - The market is closely monitoring the core PCE data, initial jobless claims, and Q1 GDP final data, as these indicators could influence gold's safe-haven demand and price movements [10][11]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, oil prices rose significantly due to geopolitical situations. The US announced a successful air - strike on three Iranian nuclear facilities on Sunday, and Iran declared retaliation and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. A cease - fire between Israel and Iran was reached on Tuesday. Fundamentally, EIA data showed a draw of over 1 billion barrels in US commercial inventories, and global oil product inventories were basically flat. Diesel strengthened significantly due to supply disruptions. The crude oil monthly spread continued to strengthen, approaching 2022 levels. The medium - to - long - term fundamental oversupply situation of crude oil remains unchanged, but short - term fluctuations are highly amplified by geopolitics [7] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily News - A source said Russia is willing to support a new round of oil production increase at the July 6 OPEC+ meeting if deemed necessary, and they are considering another production increase in August [5] - On June 25, US President Trump said the US will hold talks with Iran next week, believed the military conflict between Israel and Iran has ended but might resume, and stated the US won't give up pressuring Iran or take over oil [5] - According to the Wall Street Journal, Shell is in early talks to acquire BP [5] 2. Regional Fundamentals - In the week ending June 20, US crude oil exports decreased by 91,000 barrels per day to 4.27 million barrels per day, while domestic production increased by 400 barrels to 13.435 million barrels per day. Commercial crude inventories excluding strategic reserves decreased by 5.836 million barrels to 415 million barrels, a 1.39% decline [5] - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.049 million barrels per day, a 1.6% decrease from the same period last year. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 237,000 barrels to 402.5 million barrels, a 0.06% increase [6] - In the week ending June 20, US imports of commercial crude oil excluding strategic reserves were 5.944 million barrels per day, an increase of 440,000 barrels per day from the previous week [6] - This week, the operating rate of major refineries in China increased, while that of Shandong local refineries decreased. The production of gasoline and diesel in China both increased, with production from major refineries rising and that from independent refineries falling. The sales - to - production ratios of gasoline and diesel at local refineries both increased. Gasoline and diesel inventories accumulated this week. The comprehensive profit of major refineries rebounded month - on - month, and that of local refineries improved month - on - month [6] 3. Weekly Price Data - From June 19 to June 25, WTI crude oil prices changed from an unspecified value to 64.92, with a change of 0.55; BRENT prices changed from 78.85 to 67.68, a change of 0.54; DUBAI prices changed from an unspecified value to 69.12, a change of - 0.01. Other related products also showed various price changes [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall prices of non - ferrous metals show different trends. Copper prices may oscillate and rise, aluminum prices are expected to oscillate, lead prices are relatively strong, zinc prices are affected by multiple factors with large fluctuations, tin prices will oscillate in a short - term, nickel prices may decline, lithium carbonate prices fluctuate narrowly, alumina prices will oscillate weakly, and stainless steel prices will maintain a weak oscillation [2][4][5][7][8][10][12][14][16]. Summary by Metal Copper - Price: LME copper rose 0.65% to $9727/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 78720 yuan/ton. The expected operating range for SHFE copper is 78000 - 79200 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is 9600 - 9800 dollars/ton [2]. - Inventory: LME inventory decreased by 1200 to 93475 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 0.1 to 21000 tons [2]. - Market: The copper raw material market is tight, and low inventories may support price increases, but weakening domestic consumption limits the upside [2]. Aluminum - Price: LME aluminum fell 0.06% to $2566/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20345 yuan/ton. The expected operating range for SHFE aluminum is 20200 - 20600 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum is 2530 - 2590 dollars/ton [4]. - Inventory: SHFE weighted contract positions increased by 0.1 to 651000 lots, and warehouse receipts decreased by 0.2 to 44000 tons. Domestic three - place aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 0.15 to 326500 tons [4]. - Market: Low inventories may push prices up, but the upside is limited by price increases and the off - season [4]. Lead - Price: SHFE lead index rose 1.32% to 17181 yuan/ton. Lead prices are generally strong, but the increase of SHFE lead is limited by weak domestic consumption [5]. - Inventory: Domestic social inventory slightly decreased to 49800 tons [5]. - Market: The export growth of lead - acid batteries has declined, and downstream consumption is weak. High smelting rates and other factors support the price [5]. Zinc - Price: SHFE zinc index rose 0.50% to 22017 yuan/ton. Market fluctuations are large due to repeated geopolitical disturbances [7]. - Inventory: SHFE zinc warehouse receipts decreased to 7200 tons, and domestic social inventory decreased to 77800 tons [7]. - Market: The zinc industry is in the process of converting surplus zinc ore into zinc ingots. Geopolitical events may affect zinc ore exports [7]. Tin - Price: On June 25, 2025, SHFE tin closed at 263000 yuan/ton, down 0.3%. It is expected to oscillate between 250000 - 270000 yuan/ton in the short - term, and LME tin will oscillate between 31000 - 33000 dollars/ton [8]. - Supply and demand: Supply is short - term tight, and demand is in the off - season. The upstream and downstream are in a stalemate [8]. Nickel - Price: Nickel prices rebounded slightly. It is expected that SHFE nickel will operate between 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton, and LME nickel 3M will operate between 14500 - 16500 dollars/ton [10]. - Market: Downstream cost - profit inversion affects the price of nickel ore. Nickel iron, intermediate products, and nickel sulfate prices are under pressure [10]. Lithium Carbonate - Price: The MMLC index closed at 59977 yuan, up 0.33%. The LC2509 contract closed at 60880 yuan, up 0.30%. It is recommended to operate cautiously [12]. - Market: There are many news - driven factors, but marginal changes in supply, demand, and cost are limited [12]. Alumina - Price: On June 25, 2025, the alumina index rose 0.48% to 2909 yuan/ton. It is expected to oscillate weakly, and it is recommended to short at high prices [14]. - Market: The alumina production capacity is in surplus, and the price is expected to be anchored by the cost [14]. Stainless Steel - Price: The stainless steel main contract closed at 12540 yuan/ton, up 0.80%. It is expected to maintain a weak oscillation in the short - term [16]. - Market: Market demand is weak, and supply exceeds demand. Production cuts have eased the supply - demand contradiction [16].

Market Overview - The geopolitical situation remains uncertain, with Trump claiming that military conflict between Israel and Iran has ended, although tensions may resurface soon [2] - Market sentiment is influenced by Trump's fluctuating statements, leading to volatility in trading [2] Gold Market Analysis - Gold experienced fluctuations, with a low of 3312 and a high of 3340, indicating a lack of strong directional movement [4] - The current trading strategy suggests maintaining a low position with expectations of a potential breakout above 3355, which could lead to significant upward movement towards 3385 and 3430 [5][6] - The domestic gold price is around 782, with expectations of reaching 795, indicating a bullish trend [6] Silver Market Analysis - Silver has shown a rebound from the support level of 35.2, currently trading around 36.4, with a target of 36.5 for profit-taking [6] - A strategy is suggested to prepare for short positions near 37, following the previous trading pattern [6] Oil Market Analysis - International crude oil showed weak performance, with a support level at 64, indicating limited upward movement unless influenced by market news [7] - Domestic fuel oil has undergone adjustments but is still expected to trend upwards, with potential targets of 3000 and 3200 [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical risks have gradually been released, and oil prices have deviated significantly from macro and fundamental guidance. Current oil prices have reached a reasonable range, and short positions can still be held but it's not advisable to chase short [2]. - For methanol, the geopolitical situation has cooled, and the methanol market is expected to return to its supply - demand fundamentals. The valuation has increased, and it's recommended to wait and see [4]. - For urea, the geopolitical sentiment has cooled. The overall supply - demand is still relatively loose, and it's recommended to wait and see [6]. - For rubber, it's recommended to adopt a neutral approach, conduct short - term operations, and pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [11]. - For PVC, under the expectation of strong supply and weak demand, the market is expected to continue to decline in shock [13]. - For styrene, the short - term geopolitical impact has subsided, and the price is expected to fluctuate downward [15]. - For polyethylene, the price is expected to remain volatile in June [17]. - For polypropylene, the price is expected to be bearish in June [18]. - For PX, after the end of the maintenance season, it's expected to continue de - stocking in the third quarter. After the geopolitical situation eases, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following crude oil [21]. - For PTA, the de - stocking slows down, and the processing fee is under pressure. After the geopolitical situation eases, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following PX [22]. - For ethylene glycol, the fundamental is weak, and pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling, but beware of the risk of ethane imports [23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures fell $0.07, or 0.11%, to $64.94; Brent main crude oil futures fell $0.21, or 0.31%, to $67.61; INE main crude oil futures fell 5.20 yuan, or 1.00%, to 515.7 yuan [1]. - **Data**: US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 5.84 million barrels to 415.11 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 1.39%; SPR increased by 0.24 million barrels to 402.53 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 0.06% [1]. 3.2 Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On June 25, the 09 contract rose 12 yuan/ton to 2391 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of +259 [4]. - **Analysis**: The geopolitical situation has cooled, and the market is expected to return to supply - demand fundamentals. The valuation has increased, and the downstream profit has been compressed. It's recommended to wait and see [4]. 3.3 Urea - **Market Quotes**: On June 25, the 09 contract rose 42 yuan/ton to 1740 yuan/ton, and the spot price fluctuated by 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of +10 [6]. - **Analysis**: The geopolitical sentiment has cooled. The supply is high, the inventory is high year - on - year, and the overall supply - demand is loose. It's recommended to wait and see [6]. 3.4 Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU fluctuated and consolidated [9]. - **Data**: As of June 19, the operating load of all - steel tires in Shandong was 65.46%, up 4.24 percentage points from last week and 7.31 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 77.92%, up 0.31 percentage points from last week and down 0.81 percentage points from the same period last year [10]. - **Analysis**: It's recommended to adopt a neutral approach, conduct short - term operations, and pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [11]. 3.5 PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract rose 27 yuan to 4871 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4750 (+10) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 121 (- 17) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 73 (0) yuan/ton [13]. - **Analysis**: Under the expectation of strong supply and weak demand, the market is expected to continue to decline in shock [13]. 3.6 Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price and futures price fell, and the basis strengthened [14]. - **Analysis**: The short - term geopolitical impact has subsided, and the price is expected to fluctuate downward [15]. 3.7 Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose, and the spot price fell [17]. - **Analysis**: In June, the price is expected to remain volatile as the supply pressure eases and the inventory begins to decline marginally [17]. 3.8 Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose, and the spot price fell [18]. - **Analysis**: In June, due to the concentrated production capacity release and weakening demand, the price is expected to be bearish [18]. 3.9 PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract fell 2 yuan to 6758 yuan, and PX CFR fell 10 dollars to 849 dollars [20]. - **Analysis**: After the end of the maintenance season, it's expected to continue de - stocking in the third quarter. After the geopolitical situation eases, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following crude oil [21]. 3.10 PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract rose 14 yuan/ton to 4790 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 50 yuan to 5050 yuan [22]. - **Analysis**: The de - stocking slows down, and the processing fee is under pressure. After the geopolitical situation eases, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following PX [22]. 3.11 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract fell 9 yuan/ton to 4323 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 82 yuan to 4398 yuan [23]. - **Analysis**: The fundamental is weak, and pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling, but beware of the risk of ethane imports [23].

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - The domestic commodity futures market experienced mixed results on June 25, with urea and red dates leading gains of over 2% [1] - The SC crude oil futures contract fell by over 8%, while high-sulfur fuel oil dropped more than 5% [1] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1374.19 points, down 16.51 points or 1.19% from the previous trading day [1] Group 2: Urea and Red Dates - Urea futures saw a strong rebound with a 2.47% increase, recovering losses from earlier in the week due to increased demand and inventory depletion expectations [2] - Concerns over weather conditions affecting red date production led to a rise of over 2%, reaching a four-month high, despite current low consumption levels [2] Group 3: Other Commodities - Silicon manganese and ferrosilicon both increased by over 1%, with ferrosilicon reaching a one-month high [3] - The overall market sentiment improved, contributing to gains in coke, stainless steel, industrial silicon, and nickel, all closing up by over 1% [3] Group 4: Oil Market Dynamics - Oil prices continued to decline due to easing geopolitical tensions, with SC crude oil futures down 8.13% [4] - Despite a decrease in U.S. API crude oil inventories, concerns about supply disruptions remain, limiting the extent of price declines [4] - The outlook for oil prices remains cautious, with potential for further declines due to OPEC+ production increases and high tariffs affecting global demand [4] Group 5: Shipping and Freight Rates - The shipping market for the European route saw its fifth consecutive day of declines, with a drop of 3.07% in the main contract [5] - Freight rates for routes from Shanghai to European ports have decreased compared to the previous week, indicating a potential oversupply in the market [5] - The expectation of price increases by airlines has diminished due to weakened market sentiment and competition among carriers [5]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Last week, oil prices rose significantly due to geopolitical situations. The U.S. announced a successful air - strike on three Iranian nuclear facilities on Sunday, and Iran declared retaliation and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. A cease - fire between Israel and Iran was reached on Tuesday. Fundamentally, EIA U.S. commercial inventories decreased by over 10 million barrels, global oil inventories were basically flat, and diesel strengthened significantly due to supply disruptions. The oil futures monthly spread continued to strengthen, approaching the 2022 level. The medium - to - long - term fundamental oversupply situation of crude oil remains unchanged, but short - term fluctuations are greatly amplified by geopolitical factors [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Data - From June 18 - 24, 2025, WTI decreased from $75.14 to $64.37, a change of - $4.14; BRENT decreased from $76.70 to $67.14, a change of - $4.34; DUBAI decreased from $70.84 to $69.13, a change of - $0.75. Other related products also showed price changes, such as SC decreasing by 55.90 yuan, and domestic gasoline - BRT increasing by 262.00 yuan [3] 2. Daily News - On June 24, Iranian President Pezeshkian announced that the 12 - day war initiated by Israel ended, and reconstruction work would start. Israel's plot to destroy Iranian nuclear facilities and cause social unrest failed, while its important facilities were damaged. Israel's Prime Minister's Office confirmed the attack on an Iranian radar facility and then suspended further military strikes after a call between Trump and Netanyahu [3] - The U.S. API crude oil inventory for the week ending June 20 was - 427.7 million barrels, compared with an expected - 18.3 million barrels and a previous value of - 1013.3 million barrels [3][4] 3. Regional Fundamentals - In the week of June 13, U.S. crude oil exports increased by 1.075 million barrels per day to 4.361 million barrels per day, domestic production increased by 0.3 million barrels to 13.431 million barrels per day, commercial crude inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 11.473 million barrels to 421 million barrels (a 2.65% decrease), strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 0.23 million barrels to 402.3 million barrels (a 0.06% increase), and commercial crude imports (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 0.672 million barrels per day to 5.504 million barrels per day. The U.S. four - week average supply of crude oil products was 19.981 million barrels per day, a 0.33% decrease from the same period last year [4] - In China, the main refinery operating rate rose, the Shandong local refinery operating rate fell, the production of gasoline and diesel increased, the sales - to - production ratio of local refineries for gasoline and diesel increased, gasoline and diesel were stocked up, the main refinery comprehensive profit rebounded, and the local refinery comprehensive profit improved [4]

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 | | | | | 聚酯数据日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0017251 | 2025/6/25 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | 指标 | 2025/6/23 | 2025/6/24 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | SC | INE原油(元/桶) | 574.5 | 518. 6 | -55. 90 | 成交情况: PTA: PTA行情下跌,地缘局势缓和,原油价格跌幅明 | | | PTA-SC(元/陣) | 837. 1 | 1007. 3 | 170. 23 | 显,利空PTA市场,PTA行情下跌。PTA现货货少利好仍 | | | | | | | 在,支撑现货基差。 | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1. 2005 | 1. 2673 | 0. 0668 | | | PX | CFR中国PX | 899 | 859 | -40 | | | | PX-石脑油价差 | 2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market is experiencing fluctuations due to reduced safe-haven demand and hawkish signals from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, with a focus on the support levels of gold prices [1][3][5]. Market Performance - On June 24, gold opened at $3368.29, reached a high of $3369.46, and then fell to a low of $3295.29 before closing at $3322.84, marking a daily decline of $45.45 or 1.34% [1]. - The price movement indicates increased bearish pressure, with gold prices dropping below the 30-day moving average but rebounding upon reaching the 60-day moving average support [1][3]. Influencing Factors - The announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Palestine by Trump has diminished safe-haven buying, while Powell's comments about resisting interest rate cuts have further pressured gold prices [3][5]. - Despite the hawkish stance from Powell, there remains a potential for two interest rate cuts within the year, which could support gold prices in the long term [5][6]. Technical Analysis - The gold price is currently testing key support levels, including the 60-day and 100-day moving averages, with expectations of a rebound if these levels hold [1][8]. - The monthly chart indicates that gold has been relying on the 5-month moving average for support since the beginning of its bull market last year [7]. - If gold prices break below the 5-month moving average, it may lead to a wider range of fluctuations, with potential declines towards $2500 if the upward trend line is breached [6][8]. Future Outlook - The market anticipates that gold could potentially reach above $4000 within the next year, contingent on geopolitical developments and economic conditions [5][6]. - However, if the tariff agreement between the U.S. and China is extended, gold may face prolonged high volatility or a peak in its bull market [5].

Core Insights - The easing of geopolitical tensions has led to a significant drop in gold prices, indicating a volatile market environment for investors [1] Group 1 - The current geopolitical situation has calmed, resulting in a sharp decline in gold prices [1] - Investors are advised to consider their strategies in light of the recent fluctuations in the gold market [1]