Metal Market - Domestic base metals collectively declined, with all falling over 1%. Nickel led the drop with a 6.14% decrease, while copper, aluminum, and lead fell over 2% with copper down 2.76%, aluminum down 2.89%, and lead down 2.01% [1] - Lithium carbonate rose by 2.46%, while industrial silicon fell by 4.53%. Polycrystalline silicon hit a limit down with a 9% drop, priced at 53,610 yuan/ton [1][4] - In the black metal sector, stainless steel fell by 0.98% and iron ore by 0.37%, while other varieties saw slight increases, with rebar and hot-rolled coil both rising under 1% [1] - Precious metals saw declines, with COMEX gold down 0.48% and silver down 2.27%. Domestic gold fell by 0.73% and silver by 5.9% [1][2] Macro Environment - The central bank conducted a 99 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation today, with a bid amount of 99 billion yuan and a fixed interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from previous operations [5] - The U.S. dollar index decreased by 0.04% to 98.70, with recent employment data indicating a drop in job vacancies, raising expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [8][9] Oil Market - Both domestic oil prices increased, with U.S. oil rising by 0.46% and Brent oil by 0.48%. The decline in U.S. crude oil inventories exceeded expectations, supporting oil prices [10]

1月8日，昨日黄金主要走了一个偏向回落行情，亚盘开盘直接反弹刷新日内高点至4499美元一线，不过 后续开始回落，亚盘尾盘跌破4450后反弹至4460小亏并反手做空，美盘刷新日内低点至4422美元，空单 于4430附近手动止盈离场。最终金价是收盘于4455美元，日线收于一根阴线。 周四（1月8日）昨日金价上演了戏剧性的高位震荡行情，完美诠释了"大涨之后必有休整"的市场规律。 金价在亚洲交易时段一度上探至4500美元整数关口，但随后遭遇集中性的获利了结打压。然而，疲弱的 美国就业数据及时出现，为金价提供了"软着陆"的缓冲，使其尾盘收复部分失地。这轮回调标志着市场 从前期的单边强势上涨，正式转入高位震荡消化期。 昨日公布的美国12月ADP就业人数仅增加4.1万人，低于预期。这些数据指向劳动力市场正在冷却，强 力巩固了市场对美联储将在2026年开启降息周期的预期。今晚将迎来美国初请失业金人数等，这将进一 步为劳动力市场和通胀预期提供线索。市场将在这些数据中，反复验证和校准对美联储政策路径的预 期，从而引发金价的日内波动。 从技术上来看，隔夜黄金下撤4423一线后回弹，测压4470又有承压表现，日内的整体震荡区域符合昨 ...

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices faced resistance and retreated, indicating weakened rebound momentum, yet remain above the midline and short-term moving averages, suggesting a bullish opportunity for re-entry [1][10]. Market Performance - On January 7, gold opened at $4,495.54 per ounce, reached a high of $4,500.27, then fell to a low of $4,423.39, ultimately closing at $4,456.29, with a daily fluctuation of $76.88 and a decline of $39.25, or 0.87% [10][12]. Influencing Factors - The resistance at the $4,500 mark led to profit-taking, while support buying and weaker-than-expected "non-farm payroll" data bolstered expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Additionally, central banks in major Asian countries increased gold holdings for the 14th consecutive month, contributing to recovery from losses [3][12][15]. Future Outlook - Gold is expected to open slightly higher on January 9, with potential fluctuations due to previous day's pressures and a strengthening dollar index. However, the outlook remains bullish, with limited downward pressure anticipated [3][12]. Economic Indicators - Key economic indicators to watch include U.S. Challenger job cuts for December, initial jobless claims for the week ending January 3, October trade balance, and October wholesale sales month-on-month, with market expectations leaning towards bearish for gold prices [12][13]. Geopolitical Context - Following the arrest of Venezuelan President Maduro, U.S. President Trump announced plans for the extraction and sale of Venezuelan oil, alongside discussions about acquiring Greenland, which may heighten geopolitical uncertainties and drive safe-haven demand for gold [15]. Technical Analysis - Monthly charts indicate a strong start for gold, remaining above trendline resistance and recovering most of December's losses. If momentum continues, gold could see a bullish trend with potential gains exceeding 30%, targeting the $5,500 to $6,000 range [15][17]. Conversely, a drop below trendline support could signal a significant correction towards the $4,000 to $3,900 range [15]. Weekly and Daily Trends - Weekly charts show gold regaining most of last week's losses, reducing bearish patterns, and indicating potential for new historical highs. Daily charts suggest a temporary weakening of bullish momentum, yet the overall trend remains upward, with opportunities for re-entry on dips [17][18].

1月8日，昨日国际黄金市场上演剧烈震荡行情，多空博弈激烈且最终呈现承压态势，日线形态传递出明 确的短期支撑信号，为今日交易方向提供了重要指引。在全球地缘政治紧张局势未改、美元信用持续承 压的大背景下，黄金的避险属性与价值支撑依然稳固，短期震荡不改长期上行趋势。回顾昨日盘面走 势，黄金早盘以4495.8点位开盘后，多头短暂发力推动价格拉升，最高触及4501.1点位，距离前期高位 区间仅一步之遥。但4500整数关口附近抛压显著，行情在触及高点后迅速承压回落，进入震荡下行通 道。盘中空头力量持续释放，日线最低下探至4423.4点位，日内最大跌幅接近80点。不过，低位买盘承 接力强劲，尾盘时段行情快速反弹，最终收线于4456.3点位，日线形成一根下影线极长的大阴线。这种 形态既体现了上方压制的强劲，也凸显了下方支撑的稳固，预示短期内市场或进入震荡整理阶段，多空 力量将重新寻求平衡。 技术面来看，昨日的下影长阴线具有关键指引意义。从日线级别分析，下影线长度远超实体部分，说明 下方4420-4430区间形成有效支撑，空头下行动能在低位得到充分释放，多头开始组织反击。结合近期 走势，黄金自2025年底突破4500关口后，始 ...

Core Viewpoint - Global central banks are increasing their gold reserves, reinforcing long-term confidence in gold as a safe-haven asset amid high geopolitical risks and market volatility, making gold ETFs (518800) an attractive investment option at this time [1] Group 1: Central Bank Actions - As of January 2026, China's central bank holds 2,305.37 tons of gold, having increased its reserves for 13 consecutive months [1] - Countries such as Russia, Turkey, India, and Saudi Arabia are also maintaining net purchases of gold, indicating a shift from "hedging against dollar risks" to "asset diversification strategies" [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - The expectation of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with 1-2 cuts of 25 basis points anticipated throughout 2026, is expected to support gold prices as actual interest rates trend downward [1] - Geopolitical risks remain high, particularly in regions like the Middle East and Eastern Europe, contributing to sustained demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1] Group 3: Gold ETF (518800) Overview - The gold ETF (518800) is the only A-share market ETF backed by physical gold contracts, exempt from value-added tax, and has a market size exceeding 30 billion yuan, making it a preferred asset for investment [1] - The ETF has a 13-year operational history, with a latest scale of 31.387 billion yuan and an annualized return of 11.61% since inception, outperforming inflation and most fixed-income products [2] - The fund's net asset value as of January 8, 2026, is 9.43 yuan per unit, corresponding to the price of 1 gram of gold, with a management fee of 0.50% and a custody fee of 0.10%, both lower than active gold funds [2]

【黄金期货行情表现】 1月8日，沪金主力暂报998.56元/克，跌幅0.67%，今日沪金主力开盘价999.40元/克，截至目前最高 1004.94元/克，最低993.58元/克。 【宏观消息】 首先，美联储降息预期仍存。"宽松预期+弱美元"修复通道持续。其次，避险情绪升温。美国债务膨 胀、去美元化、地缘冲突加剧以及中美贸易摩擦、经济格局重塑等弹性避险需求增强了黄金的战略配置 价值。 同时，央行购金是人民币国际化的必经之路。从长期交易策略来看，伴随着美元信用体系受损、全球货 币体系重构以及全球资产重估，非美资产相对占优，黄金仍将是长期的资产配置品种。 受货币财政双宽的流动性宽松支撑的贵金属节前冲高回落，节后地缘溢价走强或构成新的市场驱动。 【机构观点】 主力合约表现方面，沪金跌0.31%至1002.2，沪银跌2.99%至19020；铂跌2.47%至598.5，钯涨1.71%至 475.95。我国12月末黄金储备规模为7415万盎司，环比增加3万盎司，为连续第14个月增加。美国2025 年12月ISM服务业PMI指数上升1.8点至54.4，为2024年10月以来的最高水平。美国2025年12月ADP就业 人数增4 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices declined due to the strengthening of the US dollar, with investors preparing for the upcoming non-farm payroll report and assessing the impact of US pressure on Venezuela [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Analysts from MKS PAMP noted that traders are weighing the escalation of geopolitical tensions, including US intervention in Venezuela and potential conflicts in Greenland, while also monitoring macroeconomic signals from the US [1] - Soft employment data has increased market expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, although investors remain cautious about market volatility and the potential for profit-taking at high levels [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent data showed that US job openings fell to a 14-month low in November, indicating a slowdown in hiring activity and a weakening labor demand [1]

在经历昨日的全线上行后，今日国内品牌金价涨势明显放缓，多数品牌价格与昨日持平，部分品牌出现 小幅回调。昨日率先突破1400元/克关口的老庙黄金，今日报价回落至1396元/克。市场最高价（周大 福、潮宏基、周大生报1398元/克）与最低价（菜百报1370元/克）之间的价差仍为28元/克。 以下是各大品牌金店详细报价： 今日金价 1396 元/克 6 跌 六福黄金价格 1396 元/克 0 单位 变动幅度 涨跌 老庙黄金价格 0 元/克 0 平 周六福黄金价格 1383 平 周大福黄金价格 1398 元/克 平 平 老凤祥黄金价格 1396 元/克 3 今日金店黄金价格一览（2026年1月8日） 金店报价 跌 金至尊黄金价格 潮宏基黄金价格 1396 元/克 0 0 平 周生生黄金价格 1394 元/克 3 跌 菜百黄金价格 1370 1398 元/克 元/克 0 平 上海中国黄金价格 1372 元/克 0 平 周大生黄金价格 1398 元/克 0 平 今日黄金价格稳定，铂金价格大幅下跌，还是拿周大福黄金来说，今日铂金饰品价格下跌40元/克，报 922元/克。如需了解其他品牌铂金价格，欢迎留言，我们将及时汇总更新 ...

Group 1 - The precious metals market experienced a significant downturn on January 8, 2026, with gold prices dropping nearly $70 after reaching the $4500 mark, leading to profit-taking by investors [1] - Bloomberg Commodity Index will initiate its annual weight adjustment starting January 8, which is expected to trigger over $10 billion in long positions liquidation for gold and silver futures [1] - Despite the recent price drop, institutions remain optimistic about the precious metals market for the year, supported by ongoing geopolitical risks and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 2 - Gold prices initially surged due to news from Venezuela but faced a sharp decline after hitting resistance at $4500, with the market reacting to slightly disappointing ADP employment data [2] - The market anticipates a total interest rate cut of 61 basis points this year, with focus shifting to the upcoming non-farm payroll report [2] - Central banks in Asia have increased their gold reserves for the 14th consecutive month, indicating a bullish sentiment despite the modest increase in quantity [2] Group 3 - Technical analysis indicates that gold faces resistance in the $4465-$4470 range, with a potential upward breakout targeting $4520-$4550 if it maintains above $4400 [3] - Silver is viewed positively in the long term, with target prices potentially reaching $100-$120, translating to domestic prices of 23-24 yuan per gram and 28-30 yuan per gram [3] - Platinum and palladium have entered a consolidation phase after significant declines, with recommendations for cautious investment strategies in these metals [4]

受短期交易员获利了结影响，金价下跌。High Ridge Futures金属交易主管David Meger表示，当前金价 回落更多反映的是此前大幅上涨后的正常获利回吐，而非趋势性反转。 美国就业数据意外疲软，成为金价企稳的关键支撑。11月职位空缺降幅超出预期，12月ADP私人部门就 业岗位新增远低于预期，仅有微弱增长。这一系列数据表明，美国劳动力市场正在冷却，强化了市场对 美联储进一步宽松政策的预期。 周四(1月8日)亚洲时段，现货黄金价格在连续上涨后出现技术性回调，截至发稿，现货黄金暂报4440.88 美元/盎司，下跌0.32%，最高触及4465.83美元/盎司，最低下探4432.99美元/盎司。市场风险情绪趋于缓 和，部分资金选择获利了结，目前市场在等待周四公布美国当周初请失业金人数以及周五美国非农数 据，若数据强于预期，则施压美联储降息预期，不利金价走强，短期来看，黄金依然处于高位震荡之 中。 根据LSEG数据，投资者目前押注2026年美联储将累计降息61个基点。周五即将公布的非农就业报告将 成为下一个焦点，如果继续疲软，金价很可能快速反弹。疲软的经济信号，往往是黄金作为无息资产的 利好，因为低利率环境 ...