转自：新华财经 宝城期货表示，美元走弱和对美联储降息的预期回暖是推动金价反弹的直接动力。市场认为，无论谁执 掌美联储，美国维持相对宽松货币环境的长期倾向可能难以根本扭转，这为金价提供了深层支撑。地缘 政治方面，美伊会谈降低了突发军事冲突的风险，但仍维持了紧张局势，这使得黄金的避险需求从脉冲 式驱动转变为更持久的支撑。中长期看涨黄金的逻辑（如全球央行购金、去美元化）并未改变，但短期 市场可能仍处于高波动盘整期，5000美元成为黄金新的多空博弈焦点。临近春节假期，国内提保叠加海 外波动，节前资金驱动或减弱。 东证期货表示，金价震荡收涨表现偏强，得益于美元指数的大幅走弱。市场关注伊朗局势进展，仍然存 在一定避险情绪，美国1月非农就业报告也即将公布，目前市场对3月降息预期约为20%，后续经济数据 关注度增加，短期货币政策缺乏增量利多。国内春节假期将至，资金节前减仓，预计贵金属整体走势震 荡。 银河期货表示，近日市场情绪回暖，美股现V字反弹，美元走弱，金银价格相应从此前的悲观情绪中逐 步恢复并反弹。另外，中国央行再度增加黄金储备，美国财长贝森特称此前金价的下跌主要由投机性抛 售驱动，以及市场传言国内商业银行可能减少对美 ...

截至2026年2月10日 09:45，中证沪深港黄金产业股票指数(931238)成分股方面涨跌互现，周六福领涨 2.50%，神宇股份上涨2.34%，江西铜业股份上涨1.98%；菜百股份领跌。黄金股票ETF基金(159322)最 新报价2.03元。 消息面上，黄金价格再度走强，COMEX黄金期货周一收涨2.1%，报5084.2美元/盎司；COMEX白银期 货收涨8%，报83.05美元/盎司。黄金股票ETF基金盘中换手1.46%，成交388.71万元。拉长时间看，截至 2月9日，黄金股票ETF基金近1周日均成交4910.91万元。 数据显示，截至2026年1月30日，中证沪深港黄金产业股票指数(931238)前十大权重股分别为中金黄 金、紫金矿业、山东黄金、赤峰黄金、山金国际、招金矿业、湖南黄金、山东黄金、紫金黄金国际、紫 金矿业，前十大权重股合计占比61.69%。 华鑫证券认为，尽管短期贵金属价格有所回调，但美联储仍处于降息周期，CME Fedwatch工具显示 2026年6月和9月各有一次25BP降息概率较高，年内降息预期未变，对黄金价格构成坚实支撑；同时， 美国ISM制造业指数、非制造业指数等数据整体维持扩 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2026 年 2 月 10 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2604 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 观望 | 短期恐慌抛售暂缓，去美元化长 期趋势不变 | | 铜 | 2603 | 强势 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 长线看强 | 国内供应收缩给予铜价支撑 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 期货研究报告 品种：铜（CU） 参考观点：观望 核心逻辑：上周黄金市场经历剧 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The dovish remarks of the San Francisco Fed President eased market expectations of the Fed's hawkish policy, leading to a weaker dollar and a rise in the precious metals sector. As of February 9, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX platinum main contract was 545.05 yuan/gram, with a daily increase of 10.58%, and the closing price of the GFEX palladium main contract was 438.15 yuan/gram, with a daily increase of 7.59% [2]. - The price of platinum is expected to be volatile and bullish in the medium - to - long term due to a weaker dollar and positive macro - expectations. The report suggests seizing opportunities to go long on platinum and short on palladium [2]. - The price of palladium is also expected to be volatile and bullish in the medium - to - long term, supported by short - term spot shortages and positive macro - environment [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Platinum - **Price Performance**: As of February 9, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX platinum main contract was 545.05 yuan/gram, with a daily increase of 10.58% [2]. - **Main Logic**: In the short term, the market is in a wide - range volatile consolidation phase due to factors such as sanctions on Russian platinum - group metals, geopolitical issues, and Fed rate - cut expectations. In the long term, the long - term weakening trend of the US dollar credit is conducive to the release of price elasticity. The platinum - to - palladium ratio has fallen to a relatively low level this week, and it is recommended to consider long - platinum and short - palladium opportunities [2]. - **Outlook**: Volatile and bullish. The supply - demand fundamentals are healthy, and the macro - expectations are positive [2]. Palladium - **Price Performance**: As of February 9, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX palladium main contract was 438.15 yuan/gram, with a daily increase of 7.59% [2]. - **Main Logic**: There is uncertainty on the supply side, with the US import investigation of Russian unforged palladium pending and Europe considering new sanctions on Russian palladium. The palladium lease rate has been rising, and the spot shortage supports the price. On the demand side, there is still structural pressure. Although the long - term supply - demand is expected to be loose, the short - term spot shortage and Fed rate - cut expectations provide clear support for the price [3]. - **Outlook**: Volatile and bullish. Supported by short - term spot shortages and a positive macro - environment [3]. Index Information - **Special Index**: The commodity index was 2374.89, up 0.70%; the commodity 20 index was 2710.51, up 0.96%; the industrial products index was 2278.80, up 0.21%; the PPI commodity index was 1404.35, up 0.58% [49]. - **Sector Index**: The non - ferrous metals index on February 9, 2026, was 2681.11, with a daily increase of 1.12%, a 5 - day increase of 0.10%, a 1 - month decrease of 5.82%, and a year - to - date decrease of 0.18% [50].

【行情资讯】 贵金属日报 2026-02-10 贵金属 贵金属研究 图 1：金银重点数据汇总 沪金涨 1.00 %，报 1127.00 元/克，沪银涨 5.24 %，报 20934.00 元/千克；COMEX 金涨 2.10 %， 报 5084.20 美元/盎司，COMEX 银涨 8.00 %，报 83.05 美元/盎司； 美国 10 年期国债收益率 报 4.22 %，美元指数报 96.88 ； 周初贵金属市场整体维持高位震荡格局，延续此前大幅下跌后的修复行情。市场普遍定价美联 储 6 月降息预期为金价提供了核心基本面支撑。在美国就业数据表现偏弱的背景下，上周五博 斯蒂克表态称，需等待 4-5 月经济数据出炉后才能释放更明确的政策信号。白银则受紧俏的 库存与现货支撑，近月合约价格仍具备韧性。当前市场焦点集中于本周三公布的美国非农就业 报告，以及周五发布的消费者物价指数。 美联储理事米兰 2 月 10 日表态：财政端，其主张投资全额费用化以刺激资本支出，认为关税 有助于改善美国财政，支持在困难时期动用资产负债表；货币端，强调央行的相对独立性，认 为联储的货币政策应与商业周期相匹配，且需远离非货币问题，并暗示关税 ...

Group 1 - Gold and silver prices surged sharply, with spot gold reaching $5040.88 per ounce, up 1.5%, and spot silver at $81.601 per ounce, up nearly 5% [1][2] - The market anticipates a weak U.S. employment report, which has increased expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut. The Director of the National Economic Council, Kevin Hassett, confirmed the expectation of weak employment data, leading to a significant drop in the U.S. dollar index [2][3] Group 2 - A political crisis in the UK has impacted the financial markets, with the resignation of two senior officials from Prime Minister Starmer's office within 24 hours. This has led to a decline in the FTSE 100 index, which fell by 0.26%, and the British pound dropped 0.5% against the euro, reaching its lowest level since January 22 [4][5] - The yield on UK 10-year government bonds has risen, approaching the highest level since November of the previous year [5]

Group 1: Market Performance - The U.S. stock market experienced a strong rebound, with technology stocks leading the gains, pushing the Nasdaq up nearly 1% and the Dow Jones reaching a new all-time high [1] - Major tech stocks saw significant increases, with Oracle soaring over 9%, Microsoft, Broadcom, and AMD rising over 3%, and Nvidia, Meta, and Tesla increasing over 1% [1] - Alphabet, Google's parent company, issued $20 billion in bonds, with demand exceeding $100 billion, indicating strong market confidence in tech giants [1] Group 2: Commodity Market Trends - The precious metals market saw a surge, with COMEX gold futures rising over 2% to $5084.2 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures skyrocketing 8% to $83.05 per ounce [1] - Oil prices also continued to strengthen, with WTI crude oil futures increasing by 1.27% to $64.36 per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures rising by 1.45% to $69.04 per barrel [1] - Analysts noted that the weakening U.S. dollar was a key driver behind the simultaneous rise in risk assets and commodities [1] Group 3: Technology Sector Outlook - Despite recent market volatility, institutions remain optimistic about the technology sector's prospects, with expectations for revenue growth at multi-decade highs [3] - Morgan Stanley's strategist highlighted that the valuation drop due to short-term fluctuations provides an attractive entry point for investors [3] - CFRA analysts project earnings per share growth for the tech sector of 32% and 20% in 2026 and 2027, respectively, significantly outpacing the S&P 500 index [3] Group 4: Geopolitical Risks - The U.S. issued safety guidelines for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, advising U.S.-flagged vessels to avoid Iranian waters, raising concerns about potential disruptions in global oil supply [4] - Analysts believe that any conflict leading to the closure of the Strait could significantly tighten global oil supply, impacting short-term oil price volatility [4]

Market Overview - Major averages have extended gains, with technology leading the way as investors anticipate a significant week of earnings reports and key economic data, including January jobs and the consumer price index [1] - The S&P 500 appears to be stalling at current levels, showing neither a breakdown nor a breakout [2] Economic Indicators - The job market is a critical dynamic, with payroll numbers expected to be a leading indicator of economic health; a weak payroll number of 55,000 is anticipated [3][5] - The Atlanta Fed has revised Q4 GDP growth expectations down to 4.2%, despite earlier projections of 5.4% [6] Investment Strategies - A barbell approach to investing is being favored, with semiconductors, healthcare, and energy sectors performing well, contingent on job market stability [4] - The expectation of a potential rate cut at the June meeting could support and propel share prices, especially if CPI shows a decline [5] Market Breadth - There is an increase in the percentage of subindustries within the S&P 1500 outperforming the index, indicating a broadening market [7] - Last week, 30 subindustries moved above their 50-day and 200-day moving averages, suggesting positive investor sentiment, particularly in diversified metals, global banks, and technology hardware [8]

国盛证券有色金属首席分析师张航对上海证券报记者表示，最新公布的1月美国ADP新增就业人数仅为 2.2万人，低于前值4.1万人，且远低于市场预期值。尽管同期制造业PMI回到52.6%的荣枯线上，但美国 就业市场依然偏弱，市场密切关注后续美国非农数据的发布。 此外，贵金属实物需求或依然强劲。各国央行持续在小规模购入黄金。根据央行2月7日发布的数据，截 至1月末，我国黄金储备达7419万盎司，环比增加4万盎司，实现连续第15个月增持黄金。同时，全球资 金配置白银的意愿也在回升，全球最大的白银ETF（SLV）在2月3日单日增持1000吨，为历史上第三大 单日增幅纪录，显示中长线资金对贵金属后市的积极预期。 尽管贵金属价格近日回升，但面对即将到来的春节假期，国内投资者的态度仍较为谨慎，都在琢磨同一 件事：要不要持仓过节？ 张峻滔认为，目前金价仍处在上行试探区间，预计接近前高时将面临短期阻力。鉴于今年春节假期较 长，建议投资者可借当前反弹契机适度减仓，等待节后更明确的买入机会。 贵金属在"高台跳水"后逐渐回升，黄金重新收复5000美元/盎司关键关口。 截至北京时间2月9日19时30分许，伦敦现货黄金（下称"伦敦金"）已回 ...

◎记者 张骄 贵金属在"高台跳水"后逐渐回升，黄金重新收复5000美元/盎司关键关口。 截至北京时间2月9日19时30分许，伦敦现货黄金（下称"伦敦金"）已回升至5000美元/盎司关口上方； 伦敦现货白银（下称"伦敦银"）高位震荡，盘中一度涨逾5%。二者均实现两连涨，尤其是伦敦银在2月 6日反弹近10%。 "伦敦金此番走高，主要是由于金价在触及4402美元/盎司的60日均线关键支撑后，出现技术性超跌反 弹。"2月9日，兴业研究外汇商品部总经理助理张峻滔对上海证券报记者表示，最新公布的美国就业数 据"爆冷"，也令市场对美联储降息的预期再度升温，从而增强了市场对黄金的配置意愿，推动金价企稳 回升。 张峻滔认为，目前金价仍处在上行试探区间，预计接近前高时将面临短期阻力。鉴于今年春节假期较 长，建议投资者可借当前反弹契机适度减仓，等待节后更明确的买入机会。 对于黄金、白银期货等品种的杠杆交易者，北京黄金经济发展研究中心研究员许亚鑫告诉上海证券报记 者，建议最好空仓过节。这是由于春节假期国内市场休市而国际市场继续交易，其间积累的涨跌幅容易 导致节后国内市场开盘出现激进行情，持仓过节或面临较大潜在风险。 "目前市场对贵金 ...