从黄金 4 小时图来看，昨日金价在 3490 一线承压，后续维持震荡整理，今日早间价格拉升至 3500 上方。目前MACD 指标双线仍处于金叉运行状态，均线 簇呈现多头排列，表明多头暂掌走势主导权。需重点关注的是，金价站上 3500 上方后出现大幅回撤，若下方跌破 3470 一线，趋势将转向弱势。黄金突破 3440 美元前期阻力后加速上涨，连续六日收涨凸显多头动能强劲。日线 RSI 指标已接近轻微超买，提示短期或出现整理或小幅回调。若金价无法稳3500 美 元上方，可能回踩 3475-3440 美元区间寻求支撑。只要金价维持在 3440 美元之上，中期上升趋势便依然有效，反之则将终结这波反弹。综合来看，黄金今 日短线操作思路上贺博生建议回调做多为主，反弹做空为辅，上方短期重点关注3500-3510一线阻力，下方短期重点关注3465-3455一线支撑。 原油最新行情趋势分析： 原油消息面解析：周二亚洲交易时段，国际原油价格出现反弹。布伦特原油上涨至68.35美元，WTI则升至64.82美元。由于美国劳工节假期，周一WTI期货 未能结算。根据市场测算，近期乌克兰袭击已导致俄罗斯约110万桶/日的炼油能力停产，相当 ...

新华财经查询发现，国内金饰价格也有较大幅度增长，周生生报价为每克1041元，较前日上涨16元，老 庙黄金报价每克1034元，单日上涨了11元，周大福则报每克1037元，单日上涨10元。 美联储降息预期升温及市场避险情绪共振，黄金、白银2日延续上一交易日涨势。现货黄金升破3500美 元关口，刷新历史新高，一度触及每盎司3508.69美元。 来源：新华财经 ...

国际现货黄金价格创新高 卜晓明 国际现货黄金价格2日一度突破每盎司3500美元，创历史新高。路透社2日分析，这主要受美元走弱以及 美国联邦储备委员会9月降息预期影响。 国际现货黄金价格当天盘中一度触及每盎司3508.69美元。路透社数据显示，今年以来，金价已累计上 涨大约33%。 美联储降息预期促使美元指数跌至一个多月来最低点。据芝加哥商品交易所的美联储观察工具，交易员 预计美联储在9月17日会议上降息25个基点的可能性为90%。 与此同时，特朗普数月来一直批评美联储及其主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔未能降低利率，最近又因美联储华盛 顿总部的翻修工程耗资巨大将矛头指向鲍威尔。特朗普8月25日以涉嫌住房抵押贷款欺诈为由解除美联 储理事莉萨·库克的职务。库克8月28日就被解职一事向华盛顿特区联邦法院提起诉讼。 英国《金融时报》2日援引欧洲最大私人市场投资公司之一合众集团高管的话报道，包括主权财富基金 的数家亚洲和中东顶级投资机构正要求完全避开美国资产；他们对特朗普政府政策的冲击感到担忧。合 众集团高管说，出于对关税或其他潜在贸易或投资限制的担忧，一些基金要求彻底规避在美国的风险敞 口。 美国彭博新闻社2日援引瑞银集团策略师约 ...

来源：中国商报 中国商报（记者 马文博）今天A股迎来调整。截至收盘，上证指数跌0.45%，深证成指跌2.14%，创业板指跌2.85%，北证50涨0.4%。沪深京三市 全天成交额为29124亿元，较上一日放量1348亿元。全市场超4000只个股下跌。在板块题材上，CPO、半导体、铜缆高速连接等算力硬件股跌幅居 前，银行、贵金属、peek材料、电力、工业母机板块涨幅居前。 01 银行股上涨 今天，银行板块逆市走强。 截至8月底，上市银行半年报已经披露完毕。半年报数据显示，42家A股上市银行上半年共实现营业收入超2.9万亿元，同比增长超过1%；实现归 母净利润1.1万亿元，同比增长0.8%。 其中，工行、建行、农行、中行上半年净利润均超过千亿元，六大商业银行的不良贷款率都保持在低位。 湘财证券分析，上市银行整体营业收入、归母净利润同比增速分别由一季度的-1.7%、-1.2%升至上半年的1.0%、0.8%，双双由负转正。 中泰证券发布的研报称，银行股经营模式和投资逻辑从"顺周期"到"弱周期"：市场强时，银行股短期偏弱；经济偏平淡期间，银行股高股息持续 具有吸引力，继续看好银行股的稳健性和持续性。 02 贵金属板块继续 ...

新华财经北京9月2日电两大基本面利多驱动下，周二（9月2日）亚洲交易时段，国际现货金价强势冲高 并突破3500美元／盎司关口，短短一周涨超100美元，再创历史新高。 另从美元信用方面来看，近期美联储理事库克被美国总统特朗普免职，引发了市场对美联储独立性的质 疑，进一步削弱了市场对美元资产的信心。 对于黄金市场而言，在全球贸易摩擦未见根本缓和，从而带来再通胀预期，以及各主要经济体宽松的货 币政策，将令黄金继续受益。与此同时，全球地缘政治风险将继续助推市场的避险需求，尤其是中东局 势继续恶化、俄乌冲突持续。此外，全球央行继续增持黄金，不仅仅是为了外汇储备的多元化，更是对 冲美元信用下降的风险。黄金作为传统的避险资产，其长期需求仍将持续得到市场的追捧，牛市行情仍 有望延续。 展望本周，市场关注焦点除地缘政治局势进展外，周五美国即将公布的8月非农就业数据，也将对本周 黄金走势产生一定影响。从技术面来看，黄金一举突破前期重要压力3450~3455美元／盎司区域并再度 冲击3500美元／盎司整数关口，表明短期上行动能较为强劲，上方关注3550~3570美元／盎司区域压力 强度；下行关注3450~3455美元／盎司区间支撑 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The expectation of a Fed rate cut in September is almost certain, and the transition from the traditional consumption off - season to the peak season supports copper prices. With the expectation of the domestic traditional consumption off - season turning to the peak season and the Fed's September rate - cut expectation, the price of Shanghai copper may be cautiously bullish. It is recommended that investors hold their previous long positions cautiously and mainly lay out long positions when the price drops. Pay attention to the support and pressure levels of Shanghai copper, LME copper, and COMEX copper [1][3]. - The basis of Shanghai copper is positive and within a reasonable range, and the monthly spreads are all positive and within a reasonable range. Due to the Fed's September rate - cut expectation, the increase in the domestic electrolytic copper maintenance capacity in September, and the expectation of the traditional consumption off - season turning to the peak season, but the continuous accumulation of the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory, it is recommended that investors temporarily wait and see for the arbitrage opportunities of the basis and monthly spreads of Shanghai copper [7]. - The spreads of LME copper (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contracts are negative and at a relatively low level, and the ratio of Shanghai - LME copper price is between the 50 - 75% quantiles of the past five years. Considering factors such as Trump's import tariffs suppressing potential demand, the continuous accumulation of LME and COMEX electrolytic copper inventories, the Fed's September rate - cut expectation, and the continuous tight supply - demand expectation of global copper concentrates, it is recommended that investors temporarily wait and see for the arbitrage opportunities of the spreads of LME copper (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contracts [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macroeconomic Aspect - Import tariffs have pushed up commodity prices, leading to an increase in the US PPI annual rate in July and the core CPI annual rate in the consumer sector. Fed Chairman Powell said that the change in the risk balance point may require policy adjustment due to the weak supply and demand in employment, which has increased the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September. However, attention should still be paid to the new non - farm payrolls in the US in August and the consumer price index CPI on September 5th and 11th [2]. Upstream Aspect - **Copper Concentrate**: Newmont's Canadian Red Chris copper mine suspended operations due to a collapse accident, and Russia's Nornickel lowered its copper production forecast for 2025. These factors may lead to a month - on - month increase in the domestic copper concentrate production (import) volume in September. The domestic copper concentrate import index is negative and has decreased compared with last week. The copper concentrate out - port (in - port, inventory) volume of world (Chinese) ports has decreased (increased, increased) compared with last week. The domestic copper concentrate import volume in September may increase month - on - month [2][22][23]. - **Scrap Copper**: The negative spread between domestic electrolytic copper and bright and aged scrap copper may weaken the economy of scrap copper. The scrap copper import window is gradually opening, which may lead to a month - on - month decrease (increase) in the domestic scrap copper production (import) volume in September, and the supply - demand expectation is tight [2][30]. - **Blister Copper**: The second rotary anode furnace of the pyrometallurgical system of the Yunnan Zhongyou non - ferrous scrap copper resource recycling base produced anode copper in early July, and the No. 1 smelting furnace of Jiangxi Keli Copper Industry's first - phase 150,000 - ton anode plate project was ignited on August 11th. The weekly processing fees for blister copper in northern (southern) China have decreased. The domestic smelters' rough - smelting maintenance capacity in September may increase month - on - month, which may lead to a month - on - month decrease (increase) in the domestic blister copper production (import) volume in September [2][33]. - **Electrolytic Copper**: The domestic electrolytic copper production volume in September may decrease month - on - month. However, due to the expected production of new projects in the future, the import volume of domestic electrolytic copper in September may increase month - on - month [37][40]. Downstream Aspect - **Copper Products Enterprises**: The capacity utilization rate of domestic copper products enterprises in September may increase month - on - month. Specifically, the capacity utilization rate of electrolytic copper rods, recycled copper rods, copper wires and cables, copper enameled wires, copper strips, copper foils, and brass rods may increase month - on - month, while the capacity utilization rate of copper tubes may decrease month - on - month [46][48]. - **Copper Rods**: The capacity utilization rate of refined (recycled) copper rods has decreased compared with last week. The raw material (finished product) inventory of refined copper rod enterprises has decreased (increased) compared with last week, while the raw material (finished product) inventory of recycled copper rod enterprises has increased compared with last week. The capacity utilization rate of refined and recycled copper rod enterprises in September may increase month - on - month [50][52][54]. - **Copper Wires and Cables**: The capacity utilization rate of copper wires and cables has decreased compared with last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory of copper wire and cable enterprises has decreased (increased) compared with last week. The capacity utilization rate of copper wires and cables in September may increase month - on - month [62][63][65]. - **Copper Enameled Wires**: The order volume (capacity utilization rate) of copper enameled wires has decreased (decreased) compared with last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of copper enameled wire enterprises have decreased (increased) compared with last week. The capacity utilization rate of copper enameled wires in September may increase month - on - month [68][69][71]. - **Copper Strips**: The capacity utilization rate (production volume) of copper strips has decreased (decreased) compared with last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of copper strip enterprises have increased (decreased) compared with last week. The capacity utilization rate of copper strips in September may increase month - on - month [75][77][79]. - **Copper Foils**: The capacity utilization rate of copper foils in September may increase month - on - month. The capacity utilization rate of electronic circuit (lithium - ion) copper foils in September may decrease (increase) month - on - month [82][83][84]. - **Copper Tubes**: The capacity utilization rate of copper tubes has decreased compared with last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of copper tube enterprises have increased compared with last week. The capacity utilization rate of copper tubes in September may decrease month - on - month [87][88][89]. - **Brass Rods**: The capacity utilization rate of brass rods has decreased compared with last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of brass rod enterprises have increased (decreased) compared with last week. The capacity utilization rate of brass rods in September may increase month - on - month [93][94][95]. Inventory Aspect - The inventory of Shanghai copper has increased, and the inventory of LME copper has also increased. The inventory of COMEX copper has increased, and the ratio of non - commercial long - to - short positions has decreased [15][17][19]. - The inventory of copper concentrates in Chinese ports has increased, and the copper concentrate import index is negative and has decreased compared with last week [20][22]. - The inventory of scrap copper in September may decrease, and the supply - demand expectation is tight [30]. - The inventory of blister copper in September may decrease, and the import volume may increase [33]. - The inventory of electrolytic copper in September may increase due to the increase in import volume, although the production volume may decrease [37][40]. Market Structure Aspect - The basis of Shanghai copper is positive, and the monthly spreads are all positive, both within a reasonable range. The spreads of LME copper (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contracts are negative and at a relatively low level. The spreads between COMEX copper, LME copper, and Shanghai copper are all within a reasonable range [7][8][11]. - The closing prices of near - and far - month contracts of Shanghai copper show a Back structure, while those of COMEX copper show a Contango structure [12].

2025年9月2日 宏源期货研究所 吴金恒 从业资格号：F03100418 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0021125 电话：010-82293229 www.hongyuanqh.com 电解镍 ⚫ 策略:等待印尼骚乱平息带来的逢高沽空机会 ⚫ 运行区间：116000-127000 ⚫ 逻辑：供给端，镍矿价格持平，上周到港量下降，港口累库； 国内铁厂亏损幅度缩小，国内铁厂排产下降，印尼铁厂排产 增加，镍铁去库；国内精炼镍排产上升，出口盈利扩大。需 求端，三元材料排产下降，前驱体排产上升；不锈钢厂排产 上升；合金电镀需求稳定。库存端，上周纯镍社会库存减少， 保税区库存持平。综上，美联储降息预期反复，印尼骚乱带 来供应担忧，但纯镍产量高位，供需偏松，预计镍价宽幅震 荡。 ⚫ 风险提示：美联储降息预期变化、需求改善超预期、印尼骚乱升级 镍与不锈钢周报 关注印尼骚乱进展 不锈钢 ⚫ 策略:观望 ⚫ 运行区间：12500-13500 ⚫ 逻辑：基本面来看，不锈钢厂排产上升，不锈钢终端需求 一般。成本端支撑坚挺，镍生铁价格上涨，高碳铬铁价格 上涨。库存方面，总库存去库，300系去库。综上，产量 上升，需求一般，基本面较弱，但 ...

Group 1 - International gold prices have reached a new historical high, with COMEX gold hitting $3552.4 per ounce, surpassing the previous peak of $3534.1 set in early August [1] - In August, international precious metals showed strong performance, with gold increasing by 4.78% and silver rising by 8.12%, closing at $3446.805 and $39.67 per ounce respectively [2] - COMEX silver prices also surged, reaching $41.480 per ounce, marking a new record [3] Group 2 - The recent rise in gold and silver prices is attributed to various factors, primarily driven by risk aversion and speculation regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [4][5] - The expectation of a more accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve has increased the likelihood of a rate cut in September, leading to a decline in the dollar index and a subsequent rise in gold prices [5] - The industrial demand for silver is projected to exceed 55%, particularly due to its applications in the renewable energy and electronics sectors, contributing to upward price pressure [5] Group 3 - Short-term forecasts suggest that precious metal prices may remain strong due to increasing expectations of further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and rising geopolitical uncertainties [6] - Technical analysis indicates that COMEX gold may target the $3550 region, while COMEX silver could face resistance around $42 [6] - Market volatility is influenced by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy changes and geopolitical tensions, with a focus on upcoming employment statistics and the Fed's policy meeting [7]

FICC日报 | 2025-09-02 美联储降息预期升温，关注贵金属 市场分析 8月海外通胀上升迹象初显。全球7月的经济数据仍有韧性：中国7月官方制造业PMI回落至49.3，非制造业保持扩 张；中国7月按美元计出口同比增长7.2%，高于预期，主要受去年低基数和"抢出口"效应支撑；金融数据中，货币 供给超预期，但融资和贷款数据仍弱；经济数据中，投资数据仍有明显压力，国内月频经济数据仍有压力。国务 院第九次全体会议强调，采取有力措施巩固房地产市场止跌回稳态势，培育壮大服务消费，加力扩大有效投资。 中共中央、国务院印发关于推动城市高质量发展的意见。意见提出，发展组团式、网络化的现代化城市群和都市 圈，持续推动城镇老旧小区改造。商务部宣布，将于9月出台扩大服务消费的若干政策措施。中国8月官方制造业 PMI小幅回升至49.4，新订单指数升至49.5，非制造业加速扩张。9月1日，"上海合作组织＋"会议在天津梅江会展 中心举行。A股全天震荡分化，沪指窄幅盘整，创业板午后涨2%。算力硬件股再度爆发，CPO等方向领涨。黄金 股大涨，医药股强势反弹，芯片半导体股继续活跃。国债反弹，黑色系商品下跌。股指的IC和IM期货基差有所走 ...

Group 1: Energy and Metals Crude Oil - Brent crude's November contract rose 1.04% overnight. Mid - term supply - demand is loose, but short - term net long positions of funds are low, making oil prices sensitive to geopolitical positives. Consider shorting SC's November contract on rallies and use out - of - the - money call options for protection [1] Precious Metals - Rising Fed rate - cut expectations and concerns about Fed independence boost precious metals. International gold prices may hit new highs. Hold long positions and focus on US non - farm payrolls data on Friday [2] Copper - Overnight, copper prices oscillated and closed lower. The probability of short - term copper prices breaking through the 80,000 - yuan mark and expanding the upward trend is increasing. Hold short - term long positions based on the MA5 moving average and pay attention to the rise in the premium of the 2510 contract's call option with a strike price of 82,000 yuan [3] Aluminum - Overnight, Shanghai aluminum oscillated. Downstream开工率 has been rising seasonally for four weeks, and inventory is likely to be low this year. However, the inventory of aluminum ingots and bars increased slightly at the beginning of the week. The short - term trend is oscillatory, with resistance at the 21,000 - yuan area [4] Cast Aluminum Alloy - Cast aluminum alloy follows Shanghai aluminum. The spot - to - Shanghai aluminum cross - variety spread may narrow further due to tight scrap aluminum supply and expected tax policy adjustments [5] Alumina - Alumina's operating capacity is at a historical high, with rising inventory and warehouse receipts. Supply surplus is emerging, and the northwest tender price has dropped significantly. It is in a weak trend but may not fall deeply after breaking through the cost of high - cost production capacity. Pay attention to the support at the June low of 2830 yuan to the 3000 - yuan mark [6] Zinc - SMM's zinc social inventory rose to 146,300 tons, pressuring zinc prices. In September, smelter maintenance will increase, and zinc output is expected to decrease. LME zinc inventory is low, and there is strong support at the 22,000 - yuan mark. It is expected to oscillate in the "Golden September and Silver October" season. Consider shorting on rebounds in the medium - term at the 23,000 - 23,500 - yuan range [7] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel rebounded sharply. Concerns about political unrest in Indonesia may push up the price of the nickel industry chain. Short - term trading should be oscillatory, suspending the short - selling strategy [9] Tin - After strong two - way fluctuations, tin prices closed with a positive line overnight. LME Singapore warehouse inventory increased. There is a shortage of concentrate in the domestic tin market. Hold short - term long positions based on the 271,000 - yuan level and avoid chasing the rise [10] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures oscillated weakly. Total market inventory decreased slightly to 141,000 tons. The market is focused on the 930 - term expectation. Adopt a bullish strategy with risk control [11] Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon futures rose slightly, driven by polysilicon sentiment. In September, supply surplus is expected to intensify. Temporarily observe the support at 8300 yuan/ton. If it breaks, consider short - selling lightly [12] Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures rose significantly due to a leading company's "industry restructuring plan" and the "self - discipline production limit" in September. The policy's short - term implementation needs verification. Pay attention to the resistance at 53,000 yuan/ton and control positions [13] Group 2: Steel and Iron Ore Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Night - session steel prices continued to decline slightly. Rebar's apparent demand improved, but inventory accumulated. Hot - rolled coil's demand and output declined, and inventory also increased. The market is under short - term pressure, and pay attention to the improvement in building material demand [14] Iron Ore - Iron ore's overnight futures oscillated. Global shipments reached a new high this year, and domestic arrivals rebounded. Iron - water production may decline significantly this week. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [15] Coke - Coke prices rebounded at the end of the session. The first round of price cuts was partially implemented. Inventory decreased slightly, and the market is affected by the "anti - involution" policy. Prices are under short - term pressure [16] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices mainly declined during the session and rebounded at the end. Total inventory decreased, and production - end inventory increased. It is affected by the "anti - involution" policy, and prices are under short - term pressure [17] Silicomanganese - Silicomanganese prices oscillated downwards and rebounded at the end. Demand is good, and manganese ore prices have limited downside. Observe the support at the previous low [18] Ferrosilicon - Ferrosilicon prices oscillated downwards and rebounded at the end. Demand is okay, and supply has increased significantly, with inventory slightly decreasing [19] Group 3: Shipping and Energy - Related Products Container Freight Index (European Line) - Spot market freight rates are in a downward channel. The impact of geopolitical events on the market is short - term. The market is under pressure. Pay attention to airlines' empty - sailing plans for the National Day Golden Week. If the scale is smaller than last year, the market may decline further [20] Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - As of the end of July, Singapore and China's bunker fuel sales decreased year - on - year, and domestic refinery production enthusiasm was low. LU is under pressure, while FU is relatively stronger due to geopolitical premiums [21] Asphalt - Factory and social inventories of asphalt continued to decline. Asphalt futures rose against the trend. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term. Consider a spread strategy of going long on the crack spread between BU and SC10 [22] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - September's CP was stable. After the gas off - season, it showed some resilience. Import costs and domestic demand rebounded, supporting the spot price. The short - term futures market is stronger in the near - term and weaker in the far - term [23] Group 4: Chemical Products Urea - Urea's daily output decreased slightly but remained high year - on - year. Some compound fertilizer enterprises limited production, and agricultural fertilizer preparation was slow. Inventory at production enterprises increased. During India's tender period, the market sentiment may change [24] Methanol - Methanol's autumn maintenance is ending, and domestic supply is increasing, with production enterprises accumulating inventory. However, downstream demand is expected to improve due to better economics and pre - holiday stocking, so the market outlook is positive [25] Pure Benzene - Pure benzene prices continued to be weak, breaking through 6000 yuan/ton at night. Supply increased, demand was weak, and the port inventory increased slightly. There is an expectation of supply - demand improvement in the third quarter, but pay attention to the downstream rhythm [26] Styrene - Styrene's trend is weak. Crude oil may fluctuate widely, and pure benzene may be weak, providing no support. Demand is weak, supply is high, and inventory has increased significantly, resulting in a weak fundamental situation [27] Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene - Propylene production enterprises have controllable inventory pressure, but downstream acceptance of price increases is limited. Ethylene's downstream demand is mixed, and polypropylene's supply pressure is increasing, with weak downstream orders [28] PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC is weak due to high supply and low demand. Caustic soda is relatively strong, but the profit is good, so future supply may increase. PVC is expected to oscillate weakly, and caustic soda may oscillate widely [29] PX and PTA - Night - session PX drove PTA to rise first and then fall, oscillating. Terminal demand is improving, but the actual supply - demand improvement is limited. Pay attention to device dynamics, oil prices, and polyester's production increase [30] Ethylene Glycol - Ethylene glycol's night - session price dropped to the 4400 - yuan mark. Domestic production increased, and port inventory rose slightly. It is expected to oscillate within a range. Pay attention to policies and the peak - season demand [31] Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip - Short - fiber's supply - demand is stable, and its price follows the cost. New capacity this year is limited, and the peak - season demand may boost the market. Bottle - chip has long - term over - capacity issues. Pay attention to petrochemical policies [32] Group 5: Agricultural Products Soybean and Soybean Meal - Last night, soybean meal futures increased in position and oscillated upwards. Globally, the "crushing for oil" pattern is emerging. Domestically, import costs limit the decline of soybean meal. Supply is sufficient in the fourth quarter but may be short in the first quarter of next year. The market may oscillate in the short - term and is cautiously bullish in the long - term [36] Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - Overnight, soybean oil and palm oil rebounded. Short - term price declines released negative factors, and concerns about supply in Indonesia exist. Domestic soybean supply is loose in the near - term and uncertain in the far - term. Palm oil may enter a production - reduction cycle in the fourth quarter. Consider buying on dips in the long - term [37] Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil - The Canadian rapeseed futures market was closed. Global rapeseed supply will be seasonally loose. China's rapeseed supply - demand is expected to be in a tight - balance state. Rapeseed futures may stabilize in the short - term [38] Soybean No. 1 - After recent price declines, the price of domestic soybean futures rebounded as short - sellers reduced positions. Policy - driven auctions increased supply. New soybeans are expected to have a good harvest. Pay attention to the new - season opening price [39] Corn - Dalian corn futures rose last night. New - season corn may have a good harvest. Short - term, the market may oscillate stably. After the new - grain purchase enthusiasm fades, it may decline at the bottom [40] Live Pigs - Live - pig futures opened high and closed low on Monday. The pig - grain ratio is below 6:1. Supply is expected to increase in September, but demand may also rise during holidays. The price is under downward pressure. Pay attention to policies and supply release [41] Eggs - Egg futures increased in position on Monday. Spot prices did not rise strongly in the autumn semester. Old - hen culling increased, and chick replenishment was low in August. Consider long positions in far - month contracts next year and pay attention to short - sellers' exit in near - month contracts [42] Cotton - US cotton oscillated weakly last week. US cotton signing data improved. China - US negotiations are ongoing. Brazilian cotton's harvest is slow but the yield is expected to be good. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to oscillate, with strong support below. Buy on dips [43] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar oscillated. Brazilian sugar production may remain high. In China, domestic sugar sales are fast, and inventory pressure is low. The 25/26 sugar - cane production in Guangxi is uncertain. Sugar prices are expected to oscillate [44] Apples - Apple futures oscillated at a high level. Early - maturing apples have high prices, but the supply in the 25/26 season may not change much. The price may rise in the short - term but lacks long - term bullish factors. Temporarily observe [45] Wood - Wood futures oscillated. Foreign prices rose, but domestic prices increased slightly. Imports may remain low, and inventory pressure is small. The supply - demand situation improved, but peak - season demand has not started. Temporarily observe [46] Pulp - Pulp futures rose slightly yesterday. Port inventory declined slightly, but it is still high year - on - year. Supply is relatively loose, and demand is average. Temporarily observe or trade within a range [47] Group 6: Financial Products Stock Index - The stock market oscillated strongly yesterday, with the ChiNext Index performing well. Futures contracts of stock indices rose. Shanghai's mortgage policy was adjusted. The market has an optimistic expectation of factors such as Fed rate cuts. Increase allocation to the technology - growth sector and also pay attention to consumption and cyclical sectors [48] Treasury Bonds - Treasury bond futures rose across the board. The "stock - bond seesaw" effect is weakening. In September, domestic monetary policy may be loosened. The yield curve is expected to steepen [49]