Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices are likely to remain at a relatively high level due to the ongoing impact of the Indonesian mine accident, but the probability of prices exceeding previous domestic historical highs is low considering the uncertainty of the US government's tariff stance towards China and the upcoming month - end meeting. High copper prices have made downstream buyers cautious, and the market is unlikely to offer a higher premium until there is substantial progress in Sino - US trade [1]. - The aluminum market is overall bearish but approaching a bottom. After the end of the rainy season, bauxite shipments have resumed, and the price of bauxite has room to decline. The supply pressure of aluminum ingots has eased, and the destocking process is relatively optimistic. The market is re - evaluating the demand fulfillment in the second half of the "Silver October," and aluminum prices are expected to maintain a relatively strong pattern, but further price increases depend on demand improvement [2]. - Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely. Although the inventory pressure of primary nickel is emerging, macro - level disturbances need to be watched out for. The nickel - iron price is stable, and the stainless - steel price is supported by the nickel - iron price. In the new energy industry chain, the raw material supply is tight, and the demand for ternary materials has increased month - on - month, but the production schedule of ternary precursors has decreased [2]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Research Views Copper - Macro: Fed Chairman Powell's speech soothed the market, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in October and December is over 90%. The US government shutdown may impact the economy, and the White House plans to continue layoffs. In China, attention should be paid to Sino - US trade policies and important upcoming meetings [1]. - Inventory: LME copper inventory decreased by 550 tons to 138,800 tons; SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 3,405 tons to 36,295 tons; BC copper increased by 2,171 tons to 9,189 tons [1]. - Demand: High copper prices have made downstream buyers cautious, and the market is cautious until Sino - US trade makes substantial progress [1]. Aluminum - Price: Overnight, alumina,沪铝, and aluminum alloy all trended weakly. The SMM alumina price dropped to 2,955 yuan/ton, and the aluminum ingot spot was at a discount of 50 yuan/ton to par [1][2]. - Market: Alumina plant profits have been further compressed, high - cost production capacity has turned to losses and stopped production. After the end of the rainy season, bauxite shipments have resumed, and the price of bauxite has room to decline. The market is re - evaluating the demand fulfillment in the second half of the "Silver October" [2]. Nickel - Price: Overnight, LME nickel fell 0.49% to $15,105/ton, and SHFE nickel fell 0.17% to 120,870 yuan/ton [2]. - Inventory: LME nickel inventory increased by 1,164 tons to 243,258 tons; domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 245 tons to 25,027 tons [2]. - Industry Chain: The nickel - iron price is stable, and the stainless - steel price is supported by the nickel - iron price. The social inventory of stainless steel has increased significantly after the holiday. In the new energy industry chain, the raw material supply is tight, and the demand for ternary materials has increased month - on - month, but the production schedule of ternary precursors has decreased [2]. Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - water copper increased by 950 yuan/ton to 85,960 yuan/ton, and the premium of flat - water copper decreased by 25 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 550 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 3,405 tons. The social inventory (domestic + bonded area) increased by 3.6 tons to 25.7 tons [3][4]. - **Aluminum**: The price of aluminum in Wuxi and Nanhai increased slightly. The LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2,050 tons, and the SHFE aluminum total inventory increased by 1,180 tons. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased by 0.1 tons to 65.0 tons, and the alumina social inventory increased by 0.3 tons to 6.3 tons [5]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 375 yuan/ton. The LME nickel inventory increased by 1,164 tons, and the SHFE nickel inventory increased by 3,604 tons. The social inventory of nickel increased by 2,866 tons [5]. - **Zinc**: The主力结算价 remained unchanged. The LME zinc inventory increased by 1,125 tons, and the SHFE zinc inventory increased by 793 tons. The social inventory increased by 1.73 tons to 15.35 tons [7]. - **Tin**: The主力结算价 decreased by 0.5%. The SHFE tin inventory decreased by 550 tons, and the LME tin inventory remained unchanged [7]. Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [9][11][12]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the trends of the spread between the first - and second - month contracts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [13][17][19]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [20][22][24]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [27][29][31]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 - 2025 [33][35][37]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts show the trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [40][42][46]. Team Introduction - The research team consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi. Zhan Dapeng is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with over a decade of commodity research experience. Wang Heng focuses on aluminum and silicon research, and Zhu Xi focuses on lithium and nickel research, both providing in - depth reports and policy interpretations [49][50].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - High - frequency economic data focuses on four aspects: production shows a seasonal decline with decreased开工 rates of coke ovens, blast furnaces, PTA, and tires, and an increased PX开工 rate; prices generally weaken with falling prices of crude oil, copper, zinc, and agricultural products, while coking coal and rebar prices rise slightly; the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 cities declines, and the land supply area in 100 cities continues to grow; holiday consumption shows steady growth, with high enthusiasm for residents' travel consumption, increased domestic tourist arrivals, total spending, and cross - regional personnel movement year - on - year, but a large year - on - year decline in movie box office. In the short term, attention should be paid to the incremental policies of the October Plenary Session and the 14th Five - Year Plan, Sino - US trade policies, and the recovery of the real estate market [2][3][36]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Production: Affected by holidays, the overall enthusiasm declines - **Steel**: The coke oven capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.05 pct, the blast furnace开工 rate decreased by 0.18 pct, and the rebar output decreased by 3.06 tons. As of the week of October 10, the coke oven capacity utilization rate of domestic independent coking plants (230 samples) was 74.95%, the blast furnace开工 rate of steel mills (247 samples) was 84.27%, and the national rebar output was 203.4 tons [9]. - **Petroleum asphalt**: The pre - holiday开工 rate increased by 5.7 pct, reaching the highest level since October 2023. In the week of September 24, the domestic petroleum asphalt plant开工 rate was 40.1% [9]. - **Chemical industry**: The PX开工 rate increased by 0.81 pct compared with the pre - holiday week, while the PTA开工 rate decreased by 2.6 pct. On October 10, the domestic chemical PX开工 rate was 88.23%, and the PTA开工 rate was 74.89% [9]. - **Automobile tires**: The开工 rate of all - steel tires decreased by 21.76 pct in the pre - holiday week, and the开工 rate of semi - steel tires decreased by 27.07 pct. In the week of October 9, the开工 rate of all - steel tires was 43.96%, and the开工 rate of semi - steel tires was 46.51% [10]. Demand: The enthusiasm for National Day tourism remains high, and the movie box office shows a large decline - **Real estate**: The transaction area of commercial housing declines, the inventory - to - sales ratio decreases, the land supply area continues to grow, and the transaction premium rate of residential land increases. In the week of October 5, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 124.82 square meters, the inventory - to - sales ratio in 10 large cities was 94.66, the land supply area in 100 large and medium - sized cities was 2648.78 square meters, and the transaction premium rate of residential land in 100 large and medium - sized cities was 5.53% [13]. - **Movie box office**: The total box office during the National Day holiday was 1.835 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12.8%. The total number of moviegoers was 50.07 million, a year - on - year decrease of 3.9%. In the week of October 5, the total national movie box office revenue was 145.2 million yuan [13]. - **Tourism consumption**: During the National Day holiday, the number of domestic tourists increased by 16.08% year - on - year, and the total spending increased by 15.44% year - on - year. In 2025, the National Day holiday (8 days) saw 888 million domestic tourist arrivals, and the total domestic tourism spending was 809.006 billion yuan [17]. - **Automobile**: In the week of September 27, the average daily retail sales of passenger car manufacturers increased by 32,000 vehicles, and the average daily wholesale sales increased by 56,000 vehicles [18][21]. - **Shipping index**: The SCFI rebounded by 4.12%, the CCFI decreased by 6.68%, and the BDI increased by 1.84%. In the week of October 10, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1160.42 points, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) was 1014.78 points, and the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 1936 points [20][22]. Prices: Crude oil, copper, and agricultural products prices decline, while coking coal and rebar prices rise - **Energy**: The Brent crude oil price fell by 2.79% to $62.73 per barrel. On October 10, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures (continuous contract) was $62.73 per barrel [24]. - **Coking coal**: The futures price increased by 1.66% to 1165 yuan per ton compared with the pre - holiday level. On October 10, the settlement price of coking coal futures (active contract) was 1165 yuan per ton [24]. - **Metals**: The futures prices of LME copper, aluminum, and zinc changed by - 3.05%, + 1.63%, and - 1.52% respectively compared with the previous week, and the domestic rebar futures price increased by 0.55% compared with the pre - holiday level. On October 10, the closing price of LME copper futures (active contract) was $10374 per ton, the closing price of LME aluminum futures (active contract) was $2746 per ton, the closing price of LME zinc futures (active contract) was $2984.5 per ton, and the settlement price of domestic rebar futures (active contract) was 3107 yuan per ton [24][25]. - **Agricultural products**: The overall price of agricultural products declined compared with the pre - holiday level. The Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index decreased by 0.29%. The prices of pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits changed by - 2.80%, - 6.09%, - 1.20%, and + 2.31% respectively compared with the previous week. On October 11, the Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index was 118.42 [27]. Logistics: Self - driving is the main mode of travel during the holiday, and the number of flights to Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan, and international destinations shows a large increase - **Holiday travel**: The average daily cross - regional personnel flow during the National Day holiday increased by 6.3% year - on - year. Self - driving was the main mode of travel, and the number of flights to international and Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan destinations increased significantly. During the National Day holiday, the total cross - regional personnel flow was 2.433 billion person - times, with an average daily flow of 304 million person - times [29]. - **Subway passenger volume**: The subway passenger volumes in Beijing and Shanghai both decreased. On October 10, the seven - day moving average of Beijing's subway passenger volume was 7.5194 million person - times, and that of Shanghai was 8.0686 million person - times [31]. - **Number of flights**: After the holiday, the number of domestic and international flights decreased. On October 11, the seven - day moving average of domestic (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) flights was 14039.29 flights, the seven - day moving average of domestic (Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) flights was 383.14 flights, and the seven - day moving average of international flights was 1949 flights [34]. - **Urban traffic**: The peak congestion index in first - tier cities decreased. On October 11, the seven - day moving average of the peak congestion index in first - tier cities was 1.51 [34]. Summary: Holiday consumption shows steady growth The high - frequency economic data focuses on production decline, price weakening, changes in the real estate market, and steady growth in holiday consumption. Short - term attention should be paid to relevant policies and the real estate recovery [36].

Report Investment Rating The provided text does not mention the investment rating for the cotton industry. Core Viewpoints - International market: The continuous absence of the Chinese import market has led to weak export demand for US cotton. The large number of unpriced buy orders at historical highs on the ICE market suppresses cotton price increases. In the short - to - medium term, ICE cotton prices are restricted. Although there is an expectation of improving the global inventory - to - sales ratio in the 2025/26 season, the upward push on cotton prices from a slight year - on - year production cut is limited without sufficient consumption support. Considering the relatively low price level and mainstream cost estimates, the downside space is limited, and there is a long - term expectation of a slight improvement in the price center, subject to external macro - factors [3][80]. - Domestic market: In Q4, cotton prices are not optimistic, but caution is needed regarding the downside space. The record - high domestic new cotton production, early inspection and listing progress, weak "scrambling to purchase" sentiment in Xinjiang, and cooling of foreign trade "rush to export" all limit cotton prices in the short term. However, in the long run, low commercial inventories and potential restocking demand from downstream textile enterprises and the US clothing market may drive cotton prices to "decline first and then rise," but the improvement in the price center may be conservative, and new - year industrial policies and foreign trade conditions need to be monitored [3][81]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Review of the Cotton Market in the First Three Quarters - Domestic market: In the first half of 2025, cotton prices showed a weakening trend due to loose supply and demand. The price was affected by Sino - US trade frictions. In the third quarter, prices fluctuated in a large range. Currently, the large supply of new - season cotton and weak downstream demand have led to a continuous decline in prices [9]. - International market: In the first three quarters of 2025, prices fluctuated between 60 - 70 cents per pound, with the amplitude affected by Sino - US trade wars. The supply - strong and demand - weak pattern persisted, and the large number of unpriced buy orders on the ICE market suppressed prices [10]. Chapter 2: Analysis of the Global Cotton Market Supply and Demand 2.1 Global Supply and Demand Situation - According to the USDA September report, the global cotton inventory - to - consumption ratio is expected to be 61.6%, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.6%. Global cotton production is expected to be 25.62 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 230,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 340,000 tons. Consumption is expected to be 25.87 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 180,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 70,000 tons. Total trade volume is expected to be 9.52 million tons. The global ending inventory is expected to be 15.93 million tons, a four - year low [11][12][13]. - In terms of adjustment expectations, the possibility of a production cut in the 2025/26 global cotton output is low, and it may still see a slight increase. Cotton consumption is positively correlated with global GDP growth, but there is high uncertainty due to factors such as the global economic slowdown and Sino - US trade frictions [17][18]. 2.2 US Market Supply and Demand Situation - As of September 22, the overall good - quality rate of US cotton plants dropped to 47%, the boll - opening rate was 60%, and the harvesting progress reached 12%. The 2025 US cotton production is expected to be between 2.85 - 3 million tons [24]. - As of September 2025, the cumulative contracted export volume of US cotton for the 2025/2026 season was 925,000 tons, with a slow signing progress. However, there is still some elasticity in exports [27]. 2.3 Brazilian Market Supply and Demand Situation - Brazil's new cotton harvest is almost complete. The 2024/25 (corresponding to USDA's 2025/26) cotton production is expected to be 3.935 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.5%. The export expectation is as high as 3.11 million tons, but the export volume in August 2025 was lower than in previous years [30]. Chapter 3: Domestic Cotton Market Supply and Demand 3.1 China's Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - According to the Agricultural Rural Ministry and USDA data, there is a clear expectation of a bumper harvest in China's new cotton season in 2025/26. There is a view that consumption will weaken year - on - year. There are differences in the ending inventory expectations between the two institutions, but both expect a narrowing of the supply - demand gap compared to previous years [32][33]. 3.2 New - Season Planting - The new - season cotton production in Xinjiang is expected to increase by 516,000 tons to 7.415 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.2%. The national harvest progress as of the end of September was 1.5%, slightly faster than the same period last year. The large - scale harvest is expected to start in early October, and the peak listing time is postponed to late October. The expected opening price of seed cotton is low due to factors such as strong harvest expectations, low cottonseed prices, and weak "scrambling to purchase" sentiment [36][39]. 3.3 Import Scale - In August 2025, China imported about 70,000 tons of cotton, a month - on - month increase of 40%. From January to August, the total import volume was about 590,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 72.6%. The total import volume of cotton resources from January to August was only 44.76% of the same period in 2024. Future imports are expected to increase slightly but will still be limited [42][43]. 3.4 Raw Material and Finished - Product Inventories - As of the end of September, the national commercial cotton inventory decreased to 1.2718 million tons, and the Xinjiang commercial inventory decreased to 649,800 tons. The total industrial and commercial inventory was 2.1481 million tons, and the warehouse receipt quantity was about 120,000 tons, all lower than the same period last year. The inventory of downstream finished products is slightly lower than the same period, and enterprises have no obvious intention to stockpile [50][53]. 3.5 Downstream Startup and Order Situation - As of September 30, the spinning mill startup rate was 66.6%, and the weaving mill startup rate was 37.8%, both lower than the same period last year. The order days of spinning enterprises were 15.42 days, also lower than the same period. Spinning profits vary greatly across varieties and enterprises, and the clothing and textile industry is facing intensified losses [56][57]. 3.6 Domestic Retail and Regional Transactions - In August, the retail sales of clothing - related enterprises showed a mild recovery, but the growth rate was lower than that of gold and silver jewelry and the overall social retail level. The transaction volume of cotton cloth in the light - textile market increased seasonally but was lower than the same period last year [61][62]. 3.7 Clothing and Textile Exports - From January to August 2025, the cumulative export of textile and clothing decreased by 0.2%. In August, exports decreased by 5%. Exports to the US, EU, and ASEAN showed different trends. The US clothing market started to restock slightly in the second half of the year, and there is still restocking space subject to Sino - US trade policies [68][72][76]. 3.8 Competitor Prices - The price difference between cotton yarn and staple fiber is at a medium - to - low level and shows a weak trend. The cotton market does not follow the chemical fiber market closely. In the long run, chemical fiber raw materials will continue to replace cotton [78]. Chapter 4: Market Outlook - International market: Short - to - medium - term ICE cotton prices are restricted, with limited downside space and a long - term expectation of a slight improvement in the price center [80]. - Domestic market: Cotton prices are under pressure in Q4 but may "decline first and then rise" in the long run, with conservative expectations for the improvement in the price center [81].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The m2601 soybean meal contract is in a stage of oscillating downward, and the price center is expected to decline in the later period. The RM601 rapeseed meal contract is also in an oscillating downward stage, with the price center expected to drop [3]. - For soybean meal, externally, the US soybean harvest season has begun, presenting phased harvesting pressure, and there is no substantial progress in the China-US tariff agreement. Domestically, the recent import of soybeans for crushing remains sufficient, the inventory pressure of soybean meal needs to be digested, and the downstream feed demand boost is limited. In the short term, affected by the US soybean harvest pressure and the suspension of Argentina's export tariffs, the soybean meal is expected to be weak. Attention should be paid to the digestion of domestic soybean meal inventory pressure [3]. - For rapeseed meal, globally, the supply and demand pattern of rapeseed in the 2025/26 season is expected to be looser, suppressing the rapeseed price. In China, due to policies and high - margin requirements for imports and tariff restrictions, the supply of rapeseed meal is expected to tighten. However, the downstream demand is expected to weaken in the fourth quarter, and the low price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is not conducive to the substitution consumption of rapeseed meal. It is expected to maintain a pattern of weak supply and demand. In the short term, it will follow the decline of soybean meal. Attention should be paid to the inventory reduction of rapeseed meal and the changes in China - Canada trade relations [3]. Summary According to the Directory International Supply and Demand US Soybean Supply and Demand - The US soybean harvest is advancing, and the USDA report release is postponed due to the government shutdown. The CBOT soybean price has a slight rebound but is expected to be weak overall. As of September 28, 2025, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 62%, and the harvest rate was 19% [14][15]. - From September 1, 2025, the old - crop soybean inventory in the US was 316 million bushels, a year - on - year decrease of 7.6%. As of October 7, about 39% of the US soybean planting area was affected by drought [16]. South American Soybean Supply and Demand - Brazil's new - crop soybean sowing is advancing, with the main - producing state of Mato Grosso having a relatively fast sowing progress. China's procurement supports the firmness of Brazilian soybean premiums. Brazil's 2025/26 soybean planting area is estimated to be 48.6 million hectares, with an expected output of 176.7 million tons. Argentina's 2025/26 soybean output is expected to be 43.6 million tons [36][37]. Rapeseed Supply and Demand - In the 2025/26 season, the global rapeseed output is expected to increase by 5.23 million tons year - on - year, with the EU and Canada having increased production. The consumption demand increases by 2.06%, and the international rapeseed trade volume is expected to decline. Canada's rapeseed harvest is nearly half - completed, and the overall output is expected to remain at a relatively high level. China's anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed suppress its export demand and the international rapeseed price [65]. CFTC Positions - As of September 23, 2025, the CBOT soybean non - commercial long - position quantity, non - commercial short - position quantity, and total position quantity are provided, as well as the relevant data for CBOT soybean meal [54][57]. Domestic Supply and Demand Domestic Import Situation - In August 2025, China imported 12.279 million tons of soybeans, a month - on - month increase of 609,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.11%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative import of soybeans was 73.312 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4%. The estimated arrival of soybeans at domestic full - sample oil mills in October is about 9.49 million tons [79]. - The supply of rapeseed meal includes the import and crushing of rapeseed and the direct import of rapeseed meal. The import of rapeseed in October is estimated to be 0 tons, 600,000 tons in November, and 850,000 tons in December [80]. Soybean and Rapeseed Pressing - Startup Rate - As of the week of September 26, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 1.7557 million tons, with a startup rate of 49.01%. It is expected that in the 41st week (October 4 - 10), the soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills will be 1.357 million tons, with a startup rate of 37.88%. The rapeseed crushing volume of coastal major oil mills is 20,000 tons, with a startup rate of 5.33% this week, and is expected to be 18,000 tons next week, with a startup rate of 4.80% [101]. Import Cost and Pressing Profit - The import cost of soybeans from different origins and shipping periods is presented, along with the soybean crushing profit on the futures market, import freight, FOB price, and premium [108][109]. - The import cost of Canadian rapeseed and the rapeseed crushing profit on the futures market and in the spot market are also provided [116]. Inventory - As of the week of September 28, the soybean inventory of 125 domestic oil mills was 1.1991 million tons, an increase of 3.63% from the previous week and 14.3% year - on - year. The soybean meal inventory was 1.1892 million tons, a decrease of 4.86% from the previous week and 3.04% year - on - year. The rapeseed inventory of coastal major oil mills was 26,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons from the previous week, and the rapeseed meal inventory was 15,000 tons, a decrease of 2,500 tons from the previous week [118]. Transaction - During the holiday, the soybean meal transaction was light. On the first trading day after the holiday, the total soybean meal transaction of major domestic oil mills was 223,800 tons, an increase of 185,700 tons from the previous trading day. The downstream feed enterprises made appropriate purchases, and the market trading enthusiasm was fair [133]. Downstream Demand - The monthly feed output in August 2025 is provided, along with the prices of pig and egg - poultry feeds, and the breeding profits of self - breeding and self - raising pigs,外购仔猪, white - feather broilers, and laying hens [138][140].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alloy market has a strong wait - and - see sentiment, and the alloy prices are oscillating. Manganese ore prices are firm this week, the fluctuation range of manganese silicon is limited, and the price of ferrosilicon is oscillating weakly due to fundamental pressure [3][6]. - Macroscopically, domestically, relevant departments issued an announcement on governing price disorderly competition; overseas, there are differences in the Fed's interest - rate cuts, and tariff events may lead to an escalation of the Sino - US trade war. Microscopically, the molten iron output decreased slightly, the support for raw material demand is limited, and the cost of ferrosilicon is expected to decline, resulting in a higher price fluctuation range than that of manganese silicon [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Contract Performance - The FeSi2511 contract oscillated this week, closing at 5,436 yuan/ton, a decrease of 58 yuan/ton compared to the pre - holiday closing price, with a trading volume of 234,128 lots and an open interest of 118,193 lots, an increase of 112 lots compared to the previous period [8]. - The MnSi2601 contract oscillated this week, closing at 5,760 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton compared to the pre - holiday closing price, with a trading volume of 279,333 lots and an open interest of 376,591 lots, an increase of 28,300 lots compared to the previous period [8]. 3.2 Spot Price - The spot price of ferrosilicon in major regions across the country oscillated weakly this week. The aggregated quotation of 75B ferrosilicon in the main production areas was 5,150 - 5,380 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of - 50 yuan/ton [9]. - The aggregated quotation range of silicon - manganese spot in major regions across the country was 5,620 - 5,980 yuan/ton, with a price fluctuation of - 120 - 0 yuan/ton [9]. 3.3 Manganese Silicon Fundamentals 3.3.1 Production - The weekly output of manganese silicon was 204,200 tons, a decrease of 2,200 tons compared to last week, with a week - on - week change rate of - 1.1%. The weekly operating rate was 43.19%, a decrease of 0.99 percentage points compared to last week [17]. 3.3.2 Steel Tendering - After the holiday, the steel tendering price showed a downward trend, and the market was mainly in a wait - and - see mode [24]. 3.3.3 Demand - From the performance of downstream steel mills, production remained at a high level, but the actual output of molten iron decreased. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel enterprises was 90.55%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points compared to last week; the daily average molten iron output was 241,540 tons, a decrease of 2,700 tons compared to last week. The overall demand for manganese silicon was weak [27]. 3.3.4 Inventory - As of October 10, the number of manganese silicon warehouse receipts was 54,041, a decrease of 2,070 compared to September 26, with a converted inventory of 270,205 tons and a warehouse receipt destocking of 10,360 tons [31]. - In September, the average available days of silicon - manganese inventory in steel mills were 15.93 days (+0.95 days) [32]. - As of October 10, the inventory of 63 domestic silicon - manganese sample enterprises was 242,500 tons, an increase of 8,700 tons compared to September 26 [36]. 3.3.5 Manganese Ore - The global manganese ore departure volume recovered, and the departure volume from Ghana increased month - on - month. The major port aggregated departure volume was 984,400 tons, an increase of 48,900 tons compared to the previous period [40]. - After the holiday, the arrival of manganese ore at ports may increase. The expected future arrival volume at Tianjin Port is 503,900 tons, and at Qinzhou Port is 82,800 tons [47]. - The manganese ore port quotations were firm. For example, in November 2025, Comilog's Gabonese lump was reported at 4.35 US dollars/ton - degree, a month - on - month increase of 0.08 US dollars/ton - degree [52]. 3.4 Ferrosilicon Fundamentals 3.4.1 Production - The weekly output of ferrosilicon was 115,800 tons, with no change compared to last week and an increase of 13,000 tons compared to the week before the holiday. The weekly operating rate was 35.94%, an increase of 0.61 percentage points compared to the pre - holiday operating rate [58]. 3.4.2 Steel Tendering - Steel mills have not launched a new round of tendering quotations, and the price of traders' point - price shipments is relatively low [65]. 3.4.3 Demand - From the performance of downstream steel mills, production remained at a high level, but the actual output of molten iron decreased. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel enterprises was 90.55%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points compared to last week; the daily average molten iron output was 241,540 tons, a decrease of 2,700 tons compared to last week [75]. - The non - steel demand: the stainless - steel crude steel output in September was 3.0661 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 163,300 tons and a year - on - year increase of 7.65%. The metal output in September was 76,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.5% and a year - on - year increase of 2.4%. The ferrosilicon export volume in August was 35,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.6% [75]. 3.4.4 Inventory - As of October 10, the number of ferrosilicon warehouse receipts was 15,040, a decrease of 2,333 compared to September 26, with a converted inventory of 75,200 tons and a warehouse receipt destocking of 11,665 tons [77]. - In September, the average available days of ferrosilicon inventory in steel mills were 15.52 days (+0.85 days) [78]. - As of October 10, the inventory of 60 domestic ferrosilicon sample enterprises was 66,030 tons, an increase of 4,570 tons compared to September 26 [82]. 3.4.5 Cost - The raw material price decreased, and the production cost center of ferrosilicon moved down [85].

Core Viewpoint - The container shipping demand from China to the U.S. is currently weak, with freight rates plummeting to their lowest levels in over a year and a half, primarily due to reduced shipping volumes and the impact of high U.S. tariffs [1][3][4]. Group 1: Freight Rate Trends - Container shipping freight rates from Shanghai to the U.S. West Coast have dropped to $1,759 per 40-foot container as of August 15, down from a peak of $5,606 in early June [3]. - The freight rates have fallen below pre-agreement levels, reaching lows not seen since December 2021, indicating a significant decline in demand [3][6]. - The shipping rates from Shanghai to the U.S. East Coast have also decreased to their lowest levels since the end of 2023 [3]. Group 2: Shipping Volume and Demand - The shipping volume from China to the U.S. has decreased by 25% year-on-year in the first week of August, reflecting a broader trend of reduced demand [3][4]. - The U.S. National Retail Federation (NRF) forecasts a 20% year-on-year decline in container imports for September, with expectations of continued decreases through the end of the year, projecting a 5.6% reduction for the entire year compared to 2024 [6]. - Despite a temporary increase in shipping volume in July, the overall demand remains below last year's levels, with a reported 8% decrease in year-on-year shipping volume from China to the U.S. [9]. Group 3: Regional Shipping Dynamics - Southeast Asia has seen a 34% increase in shipping volume to the U.S., with significant growth from countries like Vietnam (34%), India (31%), and Malaysia (70%), indicating a shift in sourcing from China to other regions [10]. - The overall shipping volume from Asia to the U.S. increased by 1% in July, driven by a recovery in Chinese exports and active Southeast Asian exports [9]. - The return of vessels previously allocated to U.S. routes has led to a normalization of supply, causing freight rates on European and South American routes to decline as well [8].

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - The investment strategy for the粕类 sector is neutral [3] - The investment strategy for the corn sector is cautiously bearish [5] Group 2: Core Views - The current domestic soybean supply remains abundant with no significant changes in the fundamentals However, the results of the recent anti - dumping investigation on rapeseed at the policy level have a significant impact on the prices of粕类 Meanwhile, there is still no obvious progress in Sino - US trade policies, and future developments are uncertain The Brazilian premium remains strong, providing support at the cost end [2] - In the domestic corn market, the channel inventories in the Northeast and North China regions are relatively low, and traders are more willing to sell The demand from deep - processing enterprises is stable with decreasing inventories Feed enterprises have reduced their corn positions and mainly make sporadic purchases The new wheat usage is stable Overall, there is insufficient upward momentum in prices, and the market is focused on the arrival of new grain [4] Group 3: Market News and Important Data (粕类) - Futures: The closing price of the豆粕2509 contract was 3155 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton (+0.57%) from the previous day; the菜粕2509 contract was 2590 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan/ton (+1.73%) [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the豆粕 spot price was 3090 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 2990 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 2970 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton In Fujian, the菜粕 spot price was 2770 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton [1] - Market news: In July, NOPA member companies crushed 195.699 million bushels of soybeans, a month - on - month increase of 5.6% and a year - on - year increase of 7% The crushing volume reached a six - month high and the highest level for July in NOPA records [1] Group 4: Market News and Important Data (Corn) - Futures: The closing price of the corn2509 contract was 2177 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton (-0.59%); the corn starch2509 contract was 2594 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (-0.77%) [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2730 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Market news: As of August 13, 2024/25, Argentina had harvested 46.73 million tons of corn, with a progress of 94.6% and an average yield of 7.21 tons per hectare [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - After Trump signaled a trade negotiation on Twitter without specific measures, the soybean tariff remains at 23%, and the policy of postponing it for another 90 days is implemented today. The price of US soybeans has dropped, and the sentiment in the domestic market has recovered. Meanwhile, news of the rapeseed anti - dumping policy has helped the soybean meal price rebound. If there are no significant policy changes between China and the US, the MOI is recommended to maintain the idea of buying on dips supported by import costs, and short - term attention should be paid to the results of tonight's supply - demand report [7][8] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - On August 12th, the 43% soybean meal spot basis (against the main contract) in Dalian, Tianjin, and other places showed different degrees of decline, with Dalian down 9, Tianjin down 19, etc. The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong increased by 71. There were also corresponding changes in spreads such as M9 - M1 and M9 - RM9 [6] - The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.1431, and the Brazilian soybean CNF premium and other international data also had corresponding values and trends [7] Supply Situation - This week, the good - quality rate of US soybeans dropped to 69%, still at a high level, and the weather in the production areas will be normal in the next two weeks. Under the pressure of the concentrated arrival of Brazilian soybeans, the domestic soybean crushing volume in August is expected to exceed 10 million tons. Soybean meal is expected to continue to accumulate inventory. The purchase of ships from October to January is progressing slowly, and there is an expectation of inventory reduction in the far - month under the current China - US trade policy [7] Demand Situation - In the short term, the high inventory of pigs and poultry is expected to support the demand. However, the policy to control the inventory and weight of pigs is expected to affect the far - month supply of pigs. Soybean meal has a high cost - performance ratio, and the提货 volume is at a high level. In some areas, wheat is replacing corn, reducing the use of protein. This week, the far - month trading volume of soybean meal increased significantly [7][8] Inventory Situation - The domestic soybean inventory has reached a high level, the speed of soybean meal inventory accumulation has slowed down but is still in the accumulation cycle, and the number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises has decreased [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term prices of soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil are all expected to be on an upward - trending or at least stable and slightly increasing path, while the medium - term view for all three is "oscillating" [5][6][7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soybean Meal (M) - **Price Trend**: Short - term view is "oscillating", medium - term view is "oscillating", and the intraday and reference views are "oscillating strongly" [5][6]. - **Core Logic**: The USDA report shows that US soybean stocks have declined more than expected, giving a boost to US soybean futures prices. Sino - US trade policy changes and Sino - Canadian trade tensions are affecting market sentiment. The domestic industrial chain environment remains unchanged, and the trading logic revolves around supply expectations and costs. With the initial ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports in China, Sino - US trade relations continue to impact market sentiment, making short - term soybean meal futures prices more likely to rise than fall [5]. - **Influencing Factors**: Import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil refinery operation rhythm, and inventory demand [6]. Soybean Oil (Y) - **Price Trend**: Short - term view is "strong", medium - term view is "oscillating", and the intraday and reference views are "oscillating strongly" [6][7]. - **Core Logic**: Currently, the low inventory of US soybean oil and the optimistic expectation of biodiesel demand support US soybean oil futures prices. The increase in domestic soybean oil exports to India has alleviated the pressure of oversupply, and the market's expectation of inventory accumulation has eased. At the same time, the expected increase in raw soybean costs has pushed up soybean oil futures prices, which have reached new stage highs, and market sentiment has clearly improved [7]. - **Influencing Factors**: US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory [6]. Palm Oil (P) - **Price Trend**: Short - term view is "strong", medium - term view is "oscillating", and the intraday and reference views are "oscillating strongly" [6][8]. - **Core Logic**: Recently, the rotation of the oil and fat sector has continued. Palm oil has been continuously affected by bio - energy policies, showing an obvious upward trend. As the previously weak rapeseed oil has seen a compensatory increase, the upward rotation pattern of the oil and fat sector has been further strengthened, and short - term palm oil futures prices are expected to be oscillating strongly [8]. - **Influencing Factors**: Biodiesel properties, Malaysian palm oil production and exports, Indonesian exports, tariff policies of major producing countries, domestic arrivals and inventory, and substitution demand [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The downside space for soybean meal is limited, with support at the [2850] price level for the m2509 contract. In the short term, the futures market is expected to fluctuate, and in the long term, there may be an opportunity for the futures market to strengthen [3]. - The downside space for rapeseed meal is also limited, with support at the [2500] price level for the RM509 contract. The price of rapeseed meal is expected to follow the weak adjustment of soybean meal, and attention should be paid to the inventory depletion rhythm and the development of China - Canada trade policies [3]. Summary According to the Directory 1. US Soybean Supply and Demand - The new - crop US soybean yield is expected to be optimistic, and the export demand is expected to be bearish. The CBOT soybean is expected to run weakly. Pay attention to the guidance of the August USDA report and the subsequent China - US trade progress [16]. - This week, the US soybean price fluctuated. The new - crop US soybean has a relatively high good - quality rate, and the export demand is expected to be pessimistic, which further suppresses the CBOT soybean price. The good - quality rate in the US soybean producing area decreased slightly to 69% this week, and the yield is still optimistically expected. The CBOT soybean price is expected to continue the weak trend [17]. - The US soybean export sales and inspection data show that the 24/25 new - crop export net sales increased counter - seasonally to 468,000 tons, and the 25/26 new - crop export net sales are at a low level in the same period [18]. 2. South American Soybean Supply and Demand - The near - month Brazilian soybean premium has a strong upward trend, and the procurement progress for the October shipment has increased. The South American soybean export is expected to remain strong in the fourth quarter, and attention should be paid to the China - US trade policy changes [27]. - Brazil's soybean export sales are close to 78%. Argentina has permanently reduced the export tariffs on soybeans and soybean products, which is expected to increase the sales enthusiasm of Argentine farmers [28]. 3. CFTC Soybean and Soybean Meal Positions - The non - commercial net long positions and their proportions of CBOT soybeans and soybean meal as of July 29, 2025, are presented in the report [43][49][51]. 4. Rapeseed Supply and Demand - The precipitation in the Canadian rapeseed - producing area has improved, and the EU's rapeseed yield is expected to be good. The global rapeseed supply - demand contradiction in 2025/26 is expected to be limited, but attention should be paid to the implementation of production and the development of China - Canada trade relations [54][55]. - As of July 27, the Canadian rapeseed export volume decreased by 72.8% week - on - week to 55,100 tons. The Australian 2025/26 rapeseed production is expected to be 3.7 million tons, a 5% decrease from the previous forecast [56]. 5. Domestic Meal Supply and Demand - In July, the arrival of soybeans in China remained at a high level, and the supply pattern of soybean meal continued to be loose, with the spot basis remaining weak. The soybean meal futures market fluctuated strongly this week, and the spot price followed the increase. The cost of imported soybeans is strongly supported, but the market is still worried about the soybean supply in the fourth quarter [66][67]. - China imported 11.666 million tons of soybeans in July 2025, a year - on - year increase of 1.818 million tons or 18.4%. The estimated arrival of soybeans in domestic oil mills in August is about 10.6925 million tons, and the procurement progress for August and September shipments is 100% [68]. - The soybean crushing volume of oil mills decreased slightly, and the rapeseed consumption improved. As of August 1, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.2599 million tons, and the operating rate was 68.36%. The estimated soybean crushing volume in the 32nd week (August 2 - 8) is 2.213 million tons, and the operating rate is 62.21% [86]. - The inventory of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills is expected to exceed 1 million tons, and the inventory accumulation expectation continues. The rapeseed inventory increased slightly, and the granular rapeseed meal inventory decreased [98]. - As of August 6, the total national soybean meal trading volume was 3.0446 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.9024 million tons. The spot trading volume was 350,400 tons, and the far - month basis trading volume was 2.6942 million tons [102].