1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: Oscillatory [8] - Alumina: Oscillatory [9] - Aluminum: Oscillatory in the short - term, with the central price likely to rise in the medium - term [11] - Aluminum Alloy: Oscillatory in the short - term, suitable for cross - variety arbitrage; oscillatory within a range in the medium - term [12] - Zinc: Oscillatory with a weakening trend [14] - Lead: Oscillatory [16] - Nickel: Widely oscillatory in the short - term, on the sidelines in the medium - and long - term [20] - Stainless Steel: Oscillatory [22] - Tin: Oscillatory [23] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overall, in the short - to - medium term, with scrap and ore supplies tight, there is a high risk of contraction in the smelting sector, and supply - demand is expected to tighten, which supports the prices of base metals. One can continue to cautiously focus on low - buying and long - selling opportunities for copper, aluminum, and tin. When the copper - aluminum price ratio returns above 4, one can focus on the opportunity for aluminum ingot price to catch up. In the long term, there are still expectations of potential incremental stimulus policies in China, and supply disruptions for copper, aluminum, and tin remain, so there are expectations of supply - demand tightening, and the price trends of copper, aluminum, and tin are optimistic [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Copper - Information: Trump plans to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese goods starting November 1st; the US federal government has shut down; in September, SMM China's electrolytic copper production decreased by 5.05 tons month - on - month, a 4.31% decline, and increased by 11.62% year - on - year; as of October 13th, copper inventory increased by 0.57 tons to 17.2 tons; there is a strike risk at Los Pelambres copper mine [7]. - Logic: Macroscopically, Trump's tariff statement reduces market risk appetite and pressures copper prices. In terms of supply - demand, copper mine supply is tight, processing fees are low, and electrolytic copper production is expected to decline. Demand shows resilience [8]. - Outlook: Constraints on copper supply remain, and supply disruptions are increasing. In the long term, the copper price may show an upward - trending pattern, but in the short term, it is affected by US tariffs and is expected to oscillate [8]. 3.1.2 Alumina - Information: On October 15th, alumina prices in various regions declined; a Shanxi alumina enterprise is undergoing a 7 - day roasting furnace maintenance, affecting about 10,000 tons of production [8][9]. - Logic: The macro sentiment in the non - ferrous sector amplifies price fluctuations. Fundamentally, the supply is still high, and the price is under pressure, but the decline in ore prices in the fourth quarter may limit the downside [9]. - Outlook: It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term trading [10]. 3.1.3 Aluminum - Information: On October 15th, the SMM AOO average price was 20,920 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton; on October 13th, domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories increased; some companies' aluminum production increased [10]. - Logic: The macro tone is positive at home and abroad. The supply side has increasing production capacity, and the demand side is expected to improve as the peak season approaches. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the central price may rise in the medium term [11]. 3.1.4 Aluminum Alloy - Information: On October 15th, the price of Baotai ADC12 was 20,600 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton; the EU may impose a 30% tax on scrap metal exports; in September, automobile sales were strong [11][12]. - Logic: The cost is supported, supply - side production is increasing, demand is warming up, and inventory is accumulating. There are opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage [12]. - Outlook: In the short term, the ADC12 - A00 spread is rising, suitable for cross - variety arbitrage; in the medium term, supply - demand is weak, but there are raw material disruption risks, and the price is expected to oscillate within a range [12]. 3.1.5 Zinc - Information: On October 15th, the spot price of zinc in different regions was at a discount; as of October 15th, SMM's seven - region zinc ingot inventory increased by 1.29 tons to 16.31 tons; a mine in Australia delayed high - grade zinc ore mining [14]. - Logic: Macroscopically, Trump's tariff statement is negative. The supply of zinc ore has loosened in the short term, and demand is average. In the long term, supply is expected to increase, and demand growth is limited [14]. - Outlook: In October, zinc ingot production will remain high, demand recovery is limited, and inventory may continue to accumulate. Affected by policies and LME zinc trends, the price is expected to oscillate [15]. 3.1.6 Lead - Information: On October 15th, the price of waste batteries was stable, the price of lead ingots increased by 25 yuan, and the social inventory of lead ingots decreased by 0.09 tons on October 13th; after the National Day, the supply of lead will gradually loosen [15]. - Logic: The spot discount is stable, the supply side's production is increasing, and the demand side's battery factory production is also increasing. The price is expected to oscillate [16]. - Outlook: After the Fed's interest rate cut, the dollar may decline. Currently in the peak consumption season, demand is high, supply is loosening, and the cost is rising slightly. The price is expected to oscillate [16]. 3.1.7 Nickel - Information: On October 15th, LME nickel inventory exceeded 240,000 tons; Harita Nickel is implementing sustainable development measures; Antam and CATL plan to build a $6 - billion electric vehicle battery supply chain; the application process for the 2026 RKAB mining quota may be delayed [18][19]. - Logic: Market sentiment dominates the price, and the industrial fundamentals are weakening marginally. Nickel salt prices are slightly lower, and inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to use a short - term trading strategy [20]. - Outlook: With LME nickel inventory exceeding 240,000 tons, it will oscillate widely in the short term, and it is on the sidelines in the medium - and long - term [20]. 3.1.8 Stainless Steel - Information: The stainless steel futures warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 490 tons; on October 15th, the spot price in Foshan had a premium of 340 yuan/ton; a fire occurred at an HPAL project in Indonesia; on October 14th, the price of high - nickel pig iron decreased [21][22]. - Logic: Nickel iron prices are weakening, and chromium prices are stable. In September, stainless steel production increased. Social inventory is accumulating, and there may be over - supply pressure after the peak season [22]. - Outlook: Terminal demand is slightly disappointing, and the cost provides some support. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [22]. 3.1.9 Tin - Information: On October 15th, LME tin warehouse receipt inventory increased by 190 tons, and Shanghai tin warehouse receipt inventory increased by 50 tons; the average price of 1 tin ingots decreased by 300 yuan/ton [22]. - Logic: During the National Day, there were supply disruptions in the tin market. Supply in Wa State, Indonesia, and Africa is tight, and domestic ore supply is also tight. Supply constraints support the tin price [23]. - Outlook: With tight ore supply, the tin price has bottom support and is expected to oscillate [23]. 3.2行情监测 - The report does not provide specific content under this section. 3.3商品指数 - On October 15th, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities: the commodity index was 2232.58, up 0.41%; the commodity 20 index was 2533.12, up 0.57%; the industrial products index was 2189.17, down 0.09%. The non - ferrous metals index was 2452.91, up 0.77% on the day, down 1.38% in the past 5 days, up 3.25% in the past month, and up 6.26% since the beginning of the year [151][152].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Tariff concerns persist, limiting the upside potential of base metals. Although Trump's tariff threat has a negative impact, the marginal negative effect is weakening. The potential incremental stimulus policies can partially offset the negative impact of the tariff policy. In the short - to medium - term, the supply - demand of base metals is expected to tighten, supporting prices. Long - term, there are still expectations of incremental stimulus policies and supply disturbances for copper, aluminum, and tin [3]. - Copper: Trade frictions lead to a short - term decline in copper prices. Supply constraints exist, and long - term, the price center may shift upward [8][9]. - Alumina: The fundamentals are still weak, and the price is under pressure [9]. - Aluminum: Pay attention to consumption changes, and the price fluctuates at a high level. In the medium - term, the price center may shift upward [12][13]. - Aluminum alloy: The cost provides support, and the price fluctuates within a range. Consider cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [13][14]. - Zinc: Inventory continues to accumulate, and the price fluctuates with non - ferrous metals. In the long - term, there is a risk of price decline [15]. - Lead: Recycled lead smelters are about to resume production, and the price fluctuates downward [16]. - Nickel: LME nickel inventory exceeds 240,000 tons, and the price fluctuates widely. Short - term, it is in a wide - range shock; long - term, it is under observation [18][20]. - Stainless steel: The price of nickel iron weakens, and the stainless - steel price drops. Short - term, it is expected to fluctuate within a range [21][24]. - Tin: Supply constraints remain, and the price fluctuates [24]. Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Copper - **Information analysis**: Trump plans to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese goods from November 1st; the US federal government shuts down; in September, SMM China's electrolytic copper production decreased by 5.05 tons month - on - month; on October 14th, the spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was at a premium of 50 yuan/ton; as of October 13th, copper inventory increased by 0.57 tons; there is a strike risk at Los Pelambres copper mine [8]. - **Main logic**: Macroscopically, Trump's tariff plan reduces market risk appetite. Supply - side disturbances increase, and demand shows resilience. Cautious investors can gradually take profit on long positions [9]. - **Outlook**: In the long - term, the copper price center may shift upward; short - term, it will fluctuate [9]. 2. Alumina - **Information analysis**: On October 14th, the northern spot comprehensive price of alumina was 2890 yuan; the national weighted index was 2924.4 yuan, down 5.5 yuan; the alumina warehouse receipt was 210,994 tons, up 13,836 tons [9][11]. - **Main logic**: The macro sentiment amplifies the price fluctuation. The fundamentals are weak, but the decline in ore long - term contracts in the fourth quarter limits the downside space. There may be smelter production cuts [10]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, it will fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term trading [12]. 3. Aluminum - **Information analysis**: On October 14th, the SMM AOO average price was 20,900 yuan/ton; on October 13th, the electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory and aluminum rod inventory increased; on October 14th, the SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipt was 63,176 tons, up 25 tons; Rio Tinto's third - quarter electrolytic aluminum production increased by 6% year - on - year [12]. - **Main logic**: The macro environment is positive. The supply side has increasing production capacity, and the demand side has improving expectations. Observe post - holiday demand and inventory [13]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, it will fluctuate within a range; in the medium - term, the price center may shift upward [13]. 4. Aluminum Alloy - **Information analysis**: On October 14th, the price of Baotai ADC12 was 20,500 yuan/ton; the SMM AOO average price was 20,900 yuan/ton; the Baotai ADC12 - A00 was - 400 yuan/ton; the SHFE registered warehouse receipt was 42,566 tons, up 629 tons; in September, the retail sales of passenger cars and new - energy passenger cars increased [13][14]. - **Main logic**: The cost is supported, the supply - side production increases marginally, and the demand side shows marginal improvement. The inventory accumulates. Consider cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [14]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, participate in cross - variety arbitrage opportunities; in the medium - term, it will fluctuate within a range [14]. 5. Zinc - **Information analysis**: On October 14th, the spot price of 0 zinc in different regions was at a discount; as of October 14th, the SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory increased by 1.29 tons; 29Metals postponed high - grade zinc ore mining [15]. - **Main logic**: Macroscopically, Trump's tariff plan has a negative impact. The short - term zinc ore supply is loose, and the demand is average. In the long - term, the price may decline [15]. - **Outlook**: In October, the zinc ingot inventory may continue to accumulate. The price will fluctuate [16]. 6. Lead - **Information analysis**: On October 14th, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,000 yuan/ton; the SMM1 lead ingot price was 16,800 - 16,950 yuan; the domestic lead ingot social inventory decreased; the SHFE lead warehouse receipt increased; after the holiday, the supply of lead will gradually increase [16]. - **Main logic**: The spot price is stable, the supply side has increasing production, and the demand side has high - level demand. The price will fluctuate [17]. - **Outlook**: The price will fluctuate as the supply - demand is in a slightly surplus state [17]. 7. Nickel - **Information analysis**: On October 14th, the LME nickel inventory was 243,258 tons, up 1,164 tons; the SHFE nickel warehouse receipt was 25,027 tons, down 245 tons; Antam and CATL signed cooperation agreements; the RKAB application process is delayed; Vale's nickel - iron plant increased production capacity [18][19]. - **Main logic**: The market sentiment dominates the price. The industrial fundamentals are weakening marginally. The price will fluctuate widely in the short - term and be under observation in the long - term [20]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, it will fluctuate widely; in the long - term, it is under observation [20]. 8. Stainless Steel - **Information analysis**: The stainless - steel futures warehouse receipt decreased; on October 14th, the spot price of Foshan Hongwang 304 was at a premium; an accident occurred at an HPAL project in Indonesia; the price of high - nickel pig iron decreased [21]. - **Main logic**: The price of nickel iron weakens, and the chromium price is stable. After the peak season, there may be structural over - supply [22]. - **Outlook**: The price will fluctuate within a range in the short - term, depending on inventory and cost [24]. 9. Tin - **Information analysis**: On October 14th, the LME tin warehouse receipt inventory was unchanged; the SHFE tin warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 118 tons; the SHFE tin position decreased by 1,121 lots; the spot price of 1 tin decreased by 400 yuan/ton [24]. - **Main logic**: Supply disturbances increase during the National Day. The supply side is tight, providing strong support for the price [24]. - **Outlook**: The price will fluctuate as the supply side is tight [24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The threat of Trump's tariffs has a negative impact, but the marginal negative impact is weakening. The potential incremental stimulus policy can partially offset the negative impact of the tariff policy. In the short - to - medium term, the supply and demand of basic metals are expected to tighten, which supports the prices. One can continue to cautiously focus on the opportunities of low - buying and long - holding for copper, aluminum, and tin. When the copper - to - aluminum ratio returns above 4, one can pay special attention to the opportunity of aluminum ingot price increase. In the long term, there are still expectations of potential incremental stimulus policies in China, and the supply of copper, aluminum, and tin is still subject to disturbances, so the supply - demand situation is expected to tighten [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Copper - **Viewpoint**: Trade frictions have resurfaced, and copper prices will decline in the short term. In the long term, copper prices may show a pattern of fluctuating upwards. - **Analysis**: Trump announced a 100% tariff on Chinese goods starting from November 1st, and the US government "shut down". In September, the output of electrolytic copper decreased month - on - month. As of October 13th, the copper inventory increased, and the strike risk of a copper mine increased. The supply of copper mines is tight, and the processing fees are at a low level. The cost of scrap copper recycling has increased, and the output of electrolytic copper in October is expected to decline. The terminal demand is in the peak season, and the downstream stocking willingness may increase [7]. 3.1.2 Alumina - **Viewpoint**: The fundamentals are still weak, and the upward price of alumina is under pressure. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term. - **Analysis**: On October 13th, the price of alumina in various regions decreased or remained stable. Some refineries are close to the cost line, the operating capacity is high, and the inventory is strongly accumulating. The decline of ore long - term contracts in the fourth quarter is limited, which restricts the downward space. Potential production cuts and Guinea's disturbances will have a great impact on prices [8]. 3.1.3 Aluminum - **Viewpoint**: The inventory continues to accumulate, and the aluminum price fluctuates. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate within a range, and in the medium term, the price center may move up. - **Analysis**: On October 13th, the average price of SMM AOO decreased, and the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods increased. Trump's tariff threat was later eased. Some replacement capacities are being put into production, the operating capacity and the start - up rate are high. The demand is expected to improve as the peak season approaches [9][10]. 3.1.4 Aluminum Alloy - **Viewpoint**: There is still cost support, and the price fluctuates. In the short term, one can participate in cross - variety arbitrage, and in the medium term, it is expected to fluctuate within a range. - **Analysis**: On October 13th, the price of ADC12 remained unchanged, and the spread between ADC12 and AOO increased. The supply start - up rate increased marginally, and the demand improved marginally. The 9 - month automobile sales were resilient, and the inventory continued to accumulate [11][13]. 3.1.5 Zinc - **Viewpoint**: The inventory continues to accumulate, and the zinc price fluctuates with non - ferrous metals. In the short term, it may fluctuate at a high level, and in the long term, there is still room for decline. - **Analysis**: On October 13th, the spot zinc price was at a discount. As of October 13th, the zinc inventory increased. A mine's production was delayed, and the zinc ore supply was temporarily loose. The refinery's profitability was good, and the demand was in the off - peak to peak season transition period [13][14]. 3.1.6 Lead - **Viewpoint**: The inventory decreased slightly, and the lead price fluctuated at a high level. - **Analysis**: On October 13th, the price of lead remained stable, and the inventory decreased. After the holiday, the production of recycled lead enterprises gradually recovered, and the demand for lead - acid batteries increased [15][17]. 3.1.7 Nickel - **Viewpoint**: The LME nickel inventory exceeded 240,000 tons, and the nickel price fluctuated widely. In the short term, it will fluctuate widely, and in the long term, it is to be observed. - **Analysis**: On October 13th, the LME nickel inventory increased, and the domestic and global inventories increased. Indonesia plans to build a number of nickel - related projects, and a nickel - iron factory in Brazil increased its production capacity. The market sentiment dominates, and the industrial fundamentals are weakening marginally [17][19]. 3.1.8 Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: The nickel - iron price weakened, and the stainless - steel price decreased. It is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term. - **Analysis**: The stainless - steel futures warehouse receipts decreased. The nickel - iron price weakened, and the chromium price was relatively stable. The stainless - steel output increased in September, and the inventory accumulated [20][21]. 3.1.9 Tin - **Viewpoint**: There are still supply constraints, and the tin price fluctuates. - **Analysis**: On October 13th, the tin inventory decreased, and the price decreased. During the National Day, there were continuous supply disturbances in tin. The supply of refined tin in the world is tightening, and the domestic tin ore supply is tight. The processing fees of tin concentrate are at a low level, and the start - up rate of refined tin is low [22]. 3.2行情监测 The report only lists the sub - items of different varieties for monitoring, but no specific monitoring content is provided. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity 20 index was 2525.09, up 0.17%; the industrial products index was 2211.57, down 0.64% [149]. - **Plate Index**: The non - ferrous metals index on October 13th was 2448.42, with a daily decline of 0.80%, a 5 - day increase of 1.73%, a 1 - month increase of 2.55%, and an increase of 6.07% since the beginning of the year [151].

Investment Ratings - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the gold industry, copper industry, aluminum industry, tin industry, and antimony industry [12]. Core Views - The report indicates that the decline in risk assets and the resulting increase in risk aversion will drive up precious metal prices, particularly gold and silver [4][5]. - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to lower interest rates is expected to support the upward trend in gold prices [5]. - Supply disruptions in copper mining are anticipated to strengthen copper prices as the peak demand season approaches [6][8]. - The aluminum market is expected to experience tight supply conditions, although demand recovery post-holiday is still uncertain [9]. - Tin prices are supported by tightening supply due to issues in refining and mining operations [10]. - Antimony prices are expected to remain weak in the short term due to weak demand, but long-term supply constraints may support prices [12]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices increased to $3974.50 per ounce, up by $88.80 from October 3, reflecting a 2.29% rise. Silver prices rose to $50.76 per ounce, up by $3.16, a 6.63% increase [4][32]. - The SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 70,000 ounces to 32.7 million ounces, while SLV Silver ETF holdings rose by 11.35 million ounces to 497 million ounces [32]. Copper - LME copper closed at $10,765 per ton, up by $200 from October 3, a 1.89% increase. SHFE copper closed at 85,900 yuan per ton, up by 2,550 yuan, a 3.06% increase [6]. - Supply disruptions from major mines are expected to support copper prices, with Freeport-McMoran and Teck Resources reducing their production forecasts significantly [8]. Aluminum - Domestic aluminum prices reached 21,020 yuan per ton, up by 290 yuan. LME aluminum inventory decreased to 508,825 tons [9]. - The report notes that while supply remains rigid, demand recovery is still weak, leading to potential inventory accumulation [9]. Tin - Domestic refined tin prices rose to 288,830 yuan per ton, an increase of 10,370 yuan, or 5.16% [10]. - Supply issues are exacerbated by slow recovery in mining operations, particularly in Myanmar and Indonesia [10]. Antimony - Antimony prices fell to 167,500 yuan per ton, down by 1,000 yuan, reflecting a 0.59% decrease. The report highlights weak demand and ongoing supply issues [11].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant decline in non-ferrous metal stocks, with notable drops in companies such as Ganfeng Lithium, China Nonferrous Mining, and Shandong Gold [1] - The US dollar index has been rebounding continuously, surpassing the 99 mark, driven by a temporary risk aversion due to the potential government shutdown in the US [1] - International gold prices have sharply declined, with spot gold falling below $3960 per ounce, influenced by the strengthening dollar and easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [1] Group 2 - Citic Futures indicates that while copper prices are currently leading gains among base metals, there is a need for caution regarding potential pullbacks if no further macroeconomic positive factors emerge [1] - There are expectations of tighter supply and demand dynamics for copper, aluminum, and tin, which may lead to increased prices for base metals in the long term due to ongoing supply disruptions [1]

Group 1: Investment Rating of the Report - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers mid - term outlooks for each metal variety, including "oscillating strongly", "oscillating", etc. [8][11] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the Fed restarts interest rate cuts, investors have a positive macro - outlook. There is a linkage between the stock and futures markets of non - ferrous metals, with copper leading the rise among base metals. In the short - to - medium term, supply disruptions and stock - futures linkage speculation lead to a pulse rise in some varieties, but there is a risk of price decline after a rapid increase. In the long term, potential domestic stimulus policies and supply disruptions in copper, aluminum, and tin will push up base metal prices [1]. - For different metal varieties, the supply - side contraction logic of copper continues to drive up prices; the fundamentals of alumina are weak with price pressure; aluminum prices are boosted by macro - sentiment; aluminum alloy prices are supported by cost; zinc prices rebound with non - ferrous metals despite inventory accumulation; lead prices also rebound with non - ferrous metals with a loosening supply - demand outlook; nickel prices fluctuate widely due to the repeated progress of RKAB quotas; stainless steel prices rise with the strengthening of nickel prices; tin prices oscillate at a high level due to continuous supply disruptions [2]. Group 3: Summary by Variety (According to the Catalog) Copper - **Viewpoint**: The supply - side contraction logic continues to ferment, and copper prices maintain a strong trend. The Grasberg mine in Indonesia has production disruptions, and there are also issues such as the US government shutdown, domestic production changes, and policy - induced production cuts in the recycled copper market. The supply is expected to decrease, while the demand has resilience, and copper prices are expected to oscillate strongly [8][10]. - **Information Analysis**: The production of the Grasberg mine in Indonesia is expected to be severely affected in 2026, with a 35% drop in annual output; the US government shutdown affects economic data release; in August, SMM China's electrolytic copper production decreased slightly month - on - month but increased year - on - year; the spot price of electrolytic copper had a certain premium; the copper inventory increased; the "770 - document" led to production cuts in the recycled copper market; the labor union of Los Pelambres copper mine rejected the contract, increasing the strike risk [8][9]. - **Main Logic**: Macroscopically, the US government shutdown affects data release. On the supply side, mine production disruptions, low processing fees, and policy - induced production cuts lead to a supply reduction expectation. On the demand side, the peak season is approaching, and downstream stocking demand may increase. If the inventory continues to decline, copper prices may remain strong [10]. Alumina - **Viewpoint**: The fundamentals are still weak, and the upward price movement is under pressure. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [11][13]. - **Information Analysis**: On October 9, the domestic and overseas spot prices of alumina changed, with a certain decline in domestic prices; the estimated supply in September exceeded demand by about 430,000 tons; the price of a tender by an electrolytic aluminum plant in Xinjiang decreased; the alumina warehouse receipts increased [11][12]. - **Main Logic**: The macro - sentiment in the non - ferrous sector amplifies price fluctuations. Fundamentally, although some smelters are close to the cost line, the operating capacity is still high, and the strong inventory accumulation trend continues. The price is under pressure, but the limited decline in ore prices in the fourth quarter restricts the downward space. Potential production cuts and Guinea - related disturbances may affect prices [12]. Aluminum - **Viewpoint**: Boosted by macro - sentiment, aluminum prices oscillate strongly. In the short term, they are expected to oscillate, and in the medium term, the price center may rise [13][14]. - **Information Analysis**: On October 9, the price of SMM AOO aluminum increased, and the inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods increased; some aluminum production projects were completed or planned to be put into production [13]. - **Main Logic**: The short - term interest rate cut boosts macro - expectations. On the supply side, replacement capacities are being put into production, and the operating capacity is high. On the demand side, as the peak season approaches, the order outlook improves. The post - holiday demand and inventory trends need to be observed [14]. Aluminum Alloy - **Viewpoint**: Supported by cost, the price oscillates. In the short term, there are opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage, and in the medium term, it is expected to oscillate within a range [14][15]. - **Information Analysis**: On October 9, the price of ADC12 increased, and the price difference between ADC12 and AOO aluminum changed; the registered warehouse receipts increased; the EU may impose a 30% tax on scrap metal exports; the growth rate of the auto market in September slowed down [14][15]. - **Main Logic**: On the cost side, the supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the cost reduction space is limited. On the supply side, the operating rate is increasing, and the implementation of policies needs to be observed. On the demand side, there is a marginal improvement, but the peak - season effect needs to be verified. The inventory is accumulating, and the price is expected to oscillate within a range [15]. Zinc - **Viewpoint**: Zinc prices rebound with non - ferrous metals despite inventory accumulation. In the short term, they may oscillate at a high level, and in the long term, there is a downward risk [16][17]. - **Information Analysis**: The spot price of zinc has a certain discount; the inventory of zinc ingots increased; a mine in Australia had a seismic event, delaying high - grade zinc ore mining [16]. - **Main Logic**: The non - ferrous sector rebounds with the rise of copper prices. The macro - environment is slightly negative. The short - term zinc ore supply is loose, and smelters have strong production willingness. The demand is in the off - peak to peak transition period, and the overall demand outlook is average. The fundamentals are in surplus, but the Fed's interest rate cut expectation and the "soft squeeze" of LME zinc support short - term prices [17]. Lead - **Viewpoint**: The supply - demand loosening expectation remains unchanged, and lead prices rebound with non - ferrous metals, showing an oscillating trend [17][20]. - **Information Analysis**: The price of waste electric vehicle batteries and the price difference between primary and recycled lead remained stable; the price of lead ingots was stable, and the spot premium decreased; the social inventory of lead ingots decreased, and the warehouse receipts increased; lead smelters had production cuts in September, and downstream enterprises stocked up before the holiday [17][19]. - **Main Logic**: On the spot side, the premium and price difference are stable; on the supply side, the profit of recycled lead smelters improves, and the production increases; on the demand side, the operating rate of lead - acid battery factories is high. After the battery factory's stocking is completed, the demand may decline, and the supply may loosen [19][20]. Nickel - **Viewpoint**: Due to the repeated progress of RKAB quotas, nickel prices fluctuate widely. In the short term, they oscillate widely, and in the long term, it is advisable to wait and see [20][24]. - **Information Analysis**: The LME nickel inventory increased, and the domestic inventory was partially exported; Antam and CATL signed cooperation agreements; the application process of the 2026 RKAB quota was delayed; a nickel - iron plant in Brazil increased its production capacity [20][22]. - **Main Logic**: Market sentiment dominates the market, and the industrial fundamentals are slightly weak. The mine end is relatively stable, but the intermediate product output recovers, and the nickel salt price weakens slightly. The inventory accumulates, and the price pressure is significant. Short - term trading is recommended [22]. Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: Stainless steel prices rise with the strengthening of nickel prices and are expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [25]. - **Information Analysis**: The futures warehouse receipts of stainless steel decreased; the spot price had a certain premium; the stainless steel production in September increased [25]. - **Main Logic**: The prices of nickel - iron and chrome - iron are stable. The production increase in September is driven by price and season. The supply - demand imbalance has been alleviated, and the future price trend depends on inventory and cost changes [25]. Tin - **Viewpoint**: Due to continuous supply disruptions, tin prices oscillate at a high level. The supply - side tightness provides strong support for prices, and they are expected to oscillate [26]. - **Information Analysis**: The inventory and trading volume of tin changed; the spot price increased; Indonesia took measures to regulate the tin market, affecting supply [26]. - **Main Logic**: During the National Day, there were continuous supply disruptions in the tin market, including Indonesia's crackdown on illegal mines and quota system adjustments. The supply in key areas such as the Wa State and Indonesia is restricted, and the supply - side tightness supports prices [26].

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector has shown strong performance during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, driven by macroeconomic expectations and supply disruptions, with significant price increases observed in various metals [1][5][9]. Price Movements - During the holiday period, LME copper rose by 3.54%, tin by 4.06%, nickel by 1.74%, aluminum by 2.96%, and zinc by 0.98% [1][3]. - Specific price changes as of October 8 include: - CMX gold: 4014 (up 3.35%) - CMX silver: 47.715 (up 1.60%) - Copper: 10742 (up 3.54%) - Aluminum: 2743.5 (up 2.96%) - Tin: 36520 (up 4.06%) [3]. Supply Disruptions - Significant supply disruptions have been reported, including a 9.9% year-on-year decrease in Chile's copper production in August, marking the largest drop in over two years [5][6]. - The Grasberg mine in Indonesia has ceased operations, exacerbating the global copper supply shortage [6][9]. - Other supply issues include the closure of illegal tin mines in Indonesia and a withdrawal of annual zinc production guidance by 29Metals due to seismic events [5][7]. Demand Dynamics - Overall demand for non-ferrous metals remains weak, with a "peak season not booming" characteristic observed [8]. - Although China's manufacturing PMI showed some recovery in September, the improvement in production outpaced demand, particularly affecting copper and tin prices [8]. Market Outlook - The domestic non-ferrous metal market is expected to experience a rebound post-holiday, with potential for significant price increases in copper, aluminum, and tin [9]. - The overall market sentiment is optimistic, with expectations for continued price increases in non-ferrous metals, although the pace may vary across different metals [9][10].

Group 1: Gold Market - The spot gold price surpassed $4000 per ounce for the first time, increasing nearly $1400 per ounce this year, a rise of over 52% [1] - On October 8, spot gold reached a new high of $4050 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures rose to $49 per ounce, up 3.13% [1] - China's gold reserves increased to 74.06 million ounces by the end of September, marking the 11th consecutive month of gold accumulation [1] - Bridgewater's founder Ray Dalio stated that gold is a "definite" better safe-haven asset than the US dollar [1] - Goldman Sachs raised its gold price target for December 2026 to $4900 per ounce [1] Group 2: Base Metals Market - The non-ferrous metals sector is expected to experience a wave of catch-up gains, with significant price increases observed during the recent holiday period [2][5] - Key non-ferrous metals saw price increases: copper up 3.54%, tin up 4.06%, and aluminum up 2.96% [4] - Supply disruptions, particularly in Chile and Indonesia, are contributing to rising prices for copper and tin [5][6] - The market is facing a potential shift from oversupply to supply shortages in copper, with significant production declines reported [6][9] - Overall demand for non-ferrous metals remains weak, with a "旺季不旺" (peak season not prosperous) characteristic observed [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - With the National Day holiday approaching, it is advisable for long - position holders to reduce positions to control risks. In the short - to - medium term, weak US dollar and supply disruptions support metal prices, while weak terminal demand limits the upside. In the long term, potential domestic stimulus policies and supply disruptions in copper, aluminum, and tin support basic metal prices. The report maintains the view of buying copper, aluminum, and tin on dips but suggests reducing long positions or taking profits due to the approaching holiday [1]. - Copper: The reduction in Indonesian copper mine production has a significant impact, and copper prices are expected to oscillate strongly. Aluminum oxide: The fundamentals remain weak, and the upside of aluminum oxide prices is under pressure. Aluminum: Inventories have decreased, and aluminum prices will oscillate. Aluminum alloy: Cost support remains, and the market will oscillate. Zinc: The decline in ferrous product prices causes zinc prices to oscillate weakly. Lead: Pre - holiday stocking has weakened, and lead prices are under pressure. Nickel: LME nickel inventories continue to increase, and nickel prices will oscillate widely. Stainless steel: The slight decline in ferronickel prices leads to a correction in the stainless - steel market. Tin: Supply disruptions in Indonesia reappear, and tin prices will oscillate [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 Copper - **Viewpoint**: The reduction in Indonesian copper mine production has a significant impact, and copper prices are expected to oscillate strongly. - **Analysis**: Grasberg mine in Indonesia may see a 35% drop in 2026 production. The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp in September 2025. In August, SMM China's electrolytic copper production decreased by 0.28 tons month - on - month and increased by 15.59% year - on - year. As of September 29, copper inventories increased by 0.82 tons to 14.83 tons. After the release of "770 - document", there was a large - scale shutdown and production reduction in the recycled copper market [7][8]. - **Logic**: The Fed's interest - rate cut supports copper prices. The supply of copper mines is disrupted, and the cost of scrap copper recycling has increased, leading to expected production cuts in electrolytic copper. Terminal demand is in the peak season, and downstream stocking willingness has increased. If inventories continue to decline, copper prices may remain strong [9]. - **Outlook**: Copper supply constraints remain, and with increased supply disruptions and a low - level US dollar index, copper is expected to oscillate strongly [9]. Aluminum Oxide - **Viewpoint**: The fundamentals remain weak, and the upside of aluminum oxide prices is under pressure. - **Analysis**: On September 29, the prices of aluminum oxide in various regions declined. An electrolytic aluminum plant in Xinjiang tendered for 10,000 tons of aluminum oxide, with the winning bid price down 10 - 20 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. Aluminum oxide warehouse receipts increased by 10,548 tons to 159,759 tons [10][11]. - **Logic**: Macro - sentiment affects the market. The operating capacity remains high, and the strong inventory - accumulation trend continues. The fundamentals are weak, but the decline in ore prices in the fourth quarter is limited, which may restrict the downside. Potential production - cut expectations and Guinea - related disruptions will affect prices [11]. - **Outlook**: Aluminum oxide is expected to oscillate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and observe or conduct short - term trading before the holiday [11]. Aluminum - **Viewpoint**: Inventories have decreased, and aluminum prices will oscillate. - **Analysis**: On September 29, the average price of SMM AOO aluminum decreased by 80 yuan/ton. Domestic mainstream consumption - area electrolytic aluminum inventories decreased by 2.5 tons compared to last Thursday and 4.6 tons compared to last Monday. Aluminum rod inventories also decreased. The State Council's eight - department document promotes the stable growth of the non - ferrous industry [11][12]. - **Logic**: The Fed's interest - rate cut makes the US dollar weak. Supply capacity is increasing, and demand is expected to improve as the peak season approaches. Pre - holiday stocking drives inventory reduction, and the spot is at a discount. Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate [12]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, consumption and inventory - reduction sustainability need to be observed. In the medium term, with limited supply growth and resilient demand, the center of aluminum prices is expected to rise [12]. Aluminum Alloy - **Viewpoint**: Cost support remains, and the market will oscillate. - **Analysis**: On September 29, the price of Baotai ADC12 remained unchanged. The average price of SMM AOO aluminum decreased by 80 yuan/ton. The EU may impose a 30% tax on scrap metal exports. In August 2025, the import volume of unwrought aluminum alloy decreased by 16.7% year - on - year [13]. - **Logic**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and cost reduction space is limited. Supply - side production is increasing, and demand is marginally improving. Inventories are accumulating, and prices are expected to oscillate. There are opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage [15]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, there are opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage. In the medium term, supply and demand are weak, but raw - material disruptions are possible, and prices are expected to oscillate within a range [15]. Zinc - **Viewpoint**: The decline in ferrous product prices causes zinc prices to oscillate weakly. - **Analysis**: On September 29, the spot price of zinc in different regions was at a discount to the main contract. As of September 29, SMM's seven - region zinc ingot inventories decreased by 0.90 tons. CZSPT set the import zinc concentrate processing fee for the end of Q4 2025 at 120 - 140 US dollars/dry ton [15][16]. - **Logic**: The macro - environment is slightly negative. Zinc ore supply is loosening, and smelters' profitability is good. Domestic consumption is in the transition period between peak and off - peak seasons, and demand is average. Fundamentals are in surplus, but the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation makes the non - ferrous sector strong, and zinc prices may oscillate at a high level in the short term and decline in the long term [16]. - **Outlook**: Zinc ingot production will remain high in September, and inventories may accumulate. Zinc prices are expected to oscillate [17]. Lead - **Viewpoint**: Pre - holiday stocking has weakened, and lead prices are under pressure. - **Analysis**: On September 29, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries increased by 25 yuan/ton, and the price of SMM 1 lead ingot decreased by 125 yuan/ton. Social inventories of lead ingots decreased by 0.43 tons. After pre - holiday stocking, there may be new low - price stocking intentions, but there is a risk of inventory accumulation after the holiday [17]. - **Logic**: Spot premiums are narrowing, and the price difference between primary and recycled lead is decreasing. The cost of recycled lead smelting is rising, and production is increasing. Demand is in the transition period, and the lead - acid battery industry's operating rate is high. - **Outlook**: After the Fed's interest - rate cut, the US dollar rebounded slightly. Pre - holiday battery factory stocking is almost over, and demand may decline. Supply may increase, and costs are rising slightly. Lead prices are expected to oscillate [21]. Nickel - **Viewpoint**: LME nickel inventories continue to increase, and nickel prices will oscillate widely. - **Analysis**: On September 29, LME nickel inventories increased by 1188 tons to 231,312 tons. High - nickel pig iron prices are under pressure. A battery recycling company in Germany will build a large - scale lithium - battery recycling plant [21][22]. - **Logic**: Market sentiment dominates the market. The industrial fundamentals are weakening marginally. Nickel salt prices are slightly weakening, and inventories are accumulating. Short - term trading is recommended, and the performance of the ore end and macro - sentiment should be observed [23]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the non - ferrous sector is strong, but LME nickel inventories are increasing significantly. Nickel prices may strengthen in the short term, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended in the long term [23]. Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: The slight decline in ferronickel prices leads to a correction in the stainless - steel market. - **Analysis**: As of September 29, stainless - steel futures warehouse receipts decreased by 357 tons. The average price of SMM 10 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 0.5 yuan/nickel point [25]. - **Logic**: Ferronickel and ferrochrome prices are stable. Stainless - steel production increased in August. Social inventories increased slightly, and warehouse receipts decreased. The structural over - supply pressure has eased. - **Outlook**: There is a risk of increased production cuts by steel mills. The fundamentals suppress prices. Attention should be paid to the peak - season demand and inventory and cost changes. Stainless - steel prices are expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [25]. Tin - **Viewpoint**: Supply disruptions in Indonesia reappear, and tin prices will oscillate. - **Analysis**: On September 29, LME tin warehouse receipts decreased by 105 tons to 2670 tons, and Shanghai tin warehouse receipts decreased by 127 tons to 5950 tons. The average price of Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network 1 tin ingot decreased by 2300 yuan/ton [25]. - **Logic**: The supply of tin is the core concern. The resumption of production in Wabang's Manxiang mining area is slow, and African tin production is unstable. Tin concentrate processing fees are low, and the operating rate of refined tin is low. Supply is tight, but terminal demand is weakening in the second half of the year, and inventory reduction is difficult in Q4. - **Outlook**: With tight supply at the mine end, tin prices have bottom support and are expected to oscillate [26]. 3.2行情监测 Not provided in the content 3.3中信期货商品指数 - On September 29, 2025, the comprehensive index of commodities was 2235.10, down 0.13%; the commodity 20 index was 2510.22, down 0.08%; the industrial products index was 2238.46, down 0.50%. The non - ferrous metals index was 2406.68, with a daily decline of 0.25%, a 5 - day increase of 1.43%, a one - month increase of 0.89%, and a year - to - date increase of 4.26% [152][154].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The basic metals are expected to maintain an oscillatory upward pattern in the short - to - medium term, supported by a weak US dollar and supply disruptions, while the weak terminal demand will limit the upside. In the long term, potential domestic stimulus policies and supply disruptions in copper, aluminum, and tin support the prices of basic metals. Opportunities for low - buying and long - holding in copper, aluminum, and tin are recommended [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1行情观点 - **Copper**: Grasberg copper mine has a large production cut, and copper prices are operating strongly. The reduction in Grasberg's production intensifies the supply shortage, and with the Fed's interest rate cut and the approaching peak demand season, if copper inventories continue to decline, copper prices may remain strong [7][8]. - **Alumina**: Affected by anti - involution sentiment, alumina prices have a slight rebound. The fundamentals show an over - supply situation, but the limited decline in ore prices restricts the downside. It is expected to maintain a low - level oscillatory pattern in the short term [9][10]. - **Aluminum**: Attention should be paid to the demand quality, and aluminum prices are oscillating. After the interest rate cut, the supply is increasing with new capacity, and the demand is expected to improve, but the inventory accumulation continues. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term and may rise in the medium term [11][12]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: Cost support remains, and the market is oscillating. The cost reduction space is limited, the supply and demand are marginally improving, and short - term price oscillation is expected. There are opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage [13][16]. - **Zinc**: The expectation of supply - demand surplus is still strong, and zinc prices are weak. Macro factors support the non - ferrous sector, but the supply is increasing and the demand is average. Zinc prices may oscillate in the short term and decline in the long term [16][17]. - **Lead**: The supply of recycled lead is decreasing, and lead prices are oscillating strongly. With the approaching of the National Day, downstream enterprises are stocking up, while the supply of recycled lead is tight. The price is expected to oscillate strongly before the holiday [18][20]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel inventory has exceeded 230,000 tons, and nickel prices are oscillating widely. The market sentiment dominates the price, and the industrial fundamentals are weakening. Short - term wide - range oscillation is expected [21][23]. - **Stainless Steel**: Warehouse receipts are continuously decreasing, and stainless steel prices are oscillating. The prices of nickel and chromium are stable, and the supply is increasing. Attention should be paid to the demand during the peak season and the inventory change [26]. - **Tin**: Supply constraints still exist, and tin prices are oscillating. The supply is tight, but the terminal demand is weakening. The price is expected to oscillate with strong bottom support [27][28]. 3.2行情监测 - Not provided with specific monitoring content in the given text