Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the supply side has an increase, the consumption side is weak, and the total inventory continues to rise. Most manufacturers face significant cost pressure, but the short - term price has stabilized. The price may oscillate weakly at the bottom [1][2][4]. - For polysilicon, recent spot transactions are scarce, the fundamentals are weak, and after the increase in warehouse receipts, the delivery game has weakened. Polysilicon is still in the process of bottom - seeking [4][6]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - **Price**: As of the week of June 20, downstream demand was mainly for essential needs, spot market transactions were average, and the futures market oscillated within a range. The spot price stabilized. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8000 - 8300 yuan/ton, 441 silicon was 8400 - 8600 yuan/ton, and 421 silicon was 8400 - 9000 yuan/ton, all remaining unchanged week - on - week. The closing price of the main contract 2509 on the previous Friday was 7390 yuan/ton, a 1.5% increase from the last trading day of the previous week. The total open interest of industrial silicon futures was about 577,000 lots [1]. - **Supply**: This week, industrial silicon supply continued to increase. The number of open furnaces in Xinjiang increased significantly, decreased in the Northeast, and remained stable in the Southwest. The total number of open furnaces increased by 5. The weekly output of sample manufacturers reached 36,600 tons, a 1655 - ton increase from the previous week. It is expected that the output in June will increase to about 350,000 tons [1]. - **Demand**: Overall market demand remained weak this week. The polysilicon production increased slightly to 24,500 tons, a 700 - ton increase week - on - week. The overall operating rate of the organic silicon industry remained at 70.29%, with little change, and the weekly DMC output was 49,000 tons, a slight increase of 1400 tons. The aluminum alloy industry's demand for industrial silicon was mainly based on needs, and the order volume decreased slightly. In May 2025, the export volume of industrial silicon was 55,700 tons, an 8% decrease month - on - month and a 22% decrease year - on - year. From January to May 2025, the cumulative export volume of industrial silicon was 272,400 tons, a 10% decrease year - on - year [2]. - **Inventory**: As of June 20, the statistical inventory of the silicon metal industry was 784,500 tons (including registered warehouse receipts), showing a slight decrease. The port inventory was 131,000 tons, the delivery inventory was 428,000 tons, and the factory inventory of sample enterprises was 225,500 tons. As of May 20, there were 54,623 registered warehouse receipts, equivalent to 273,115 tons of physical goods. The total supply - demand inventory may still increase, but the statistical inventory decreased slightly due to changes in the inventory structure [3]. - **Cost and Profit**: Electricity prices in some northwestern regions and the southwestern flood season decreased, and the prices of silica and silicon coal on the raw material side were unstable. The overall cost support was weak. Although the cost decreased due to the reduction in raw materials and southwestern electricity prices, most enterprises still faced significant cost pressure and were in a loss - making state, except for self - supplied power production enterprises [3]. Strategy - Overall, the supply side of industrial silicon has an increase, the consumption side is weak, and the total inventory continues to rise. Most manufacturers face significant cost pressure, but the short - term price has stabilized. The price may oscillate weakly at the bottom. It is recommended to focus on whether there are policy impacts at the price bottom. If the price rebounds, sell - hedging can be carried out at high prices. The strategy is mainly range - bound operation, and upstream enterprises can sell - hedge at high prices [4]. Polysilicon Spot Market - **Price**: According to SMM statistics, this week, the price index of N - type polysilicon was 34 yuan/kg. The price of N - type polysilicon re - feedstock was 33 - 36 yuan/kg, the mainstream price of mixed feedstock dropped to about 33 yuan/kg, and the average price of N - type granular silicon was 31.5 yuan/kg. The price of polysilicon continued to decline. The main contract 2507 of polysilicon dropped significantly during the week, and the closing price on Friday was 31,700 yuan/ton, a 5.92% decrease from the previous week. The total open interest was 181,500 lots [4]. - **Supply**: Currently, all polysilicon manufacturers are operating at reduced loads. After the resumption of production in some bases, the weekly output increased. This week, the weekly output of polysilicon was 24,500 tons, a 700 - ton increase week - on - week. In June, some southwestern bases resumed production, leading to an increase in supply. However, there may be some production cuts in the northwest in the future, and the total supply in July may not change much. Currently, the price is low, and manufacturers face significant cost pressure, so the supply is uncertain [4][5]. - **Demand**: This week, the silicon wafer output was 12.9 GW, a 1.50% decrease week - on - week. The price of N - type 18X silicon wafers was 0.88 - 0.92 yuan/piece, and the price of N - type 210RN silicon wafers was 1.07 - 1.3 yuan/piece. The price continued to decline, and the prices of second - and third - tier small factories were lowered. The market sentiment was still weak. The silicon wafer production plan in June did not change significantly, and some first - tier enterprises intended to cut production, but the amplitude was limited. The terminal demand was weak [5]. - **Inventory**: According to SMM statistics, the inventory of polysilicon manufacturers decreased, and the silicon wafer inventory also decreased slightly. The latest polysilicon inventory was 262,000 tons, a 4.7% decrease month - on - month, and the silicon wafer inventory was 18.74 GW, a 3.1% decrease month - on - month. This week, the warehouse receipts changed little, with a total of 2600 lots, equivalent to 7800 tons. After the increase in warehouse receipts, the delivery game weakened [5]. - **Cost**: The cost of polysilicon changed little. The estimated tax - free cash cost of granular silicon could be controlled at 25,000 yuan/ton. The tax - free cash cost of rod - shaped silicon varied among enterprises, ranging from 30,000 to 45,000 yuan/ton, and the cash cost at the supply - demand balance point was about 32,000 yuan/ton [5]. Strategy - Overall, recent spot transactions of polysilicon are scarce, the fundamentals are weak, and after the increase in warehouse receipts, the delivery game has weakened. Polysilicon is still in the process of bottom - seeking. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of joint production cuts and policy disturbances. The strategy is range - bound operation, and sell - hedging can be carried out at high prices [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - For caustic soda: Cautious short - selling hedging [3] - For PVC: Neutral [7] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Caustic Soda**: The price of caustic soda in Shandong has been continuously decreasing, and the market remains weak. Although the plant - level inventory has decreased, it is still at a high level. The futures are deeply in contango, and the spot price is falling. In the short term, it follows the basis repair logic, and there is still room for compression of chlor - alkali comprehensive profit in the later stage [1][2][3]. - **PVC**: The price of PVC has increased due to the rise in the price of upstream raw material ethylene driven by the Middle East geopolitical conflict. However, the supply - demand fundamentals have not significantly improved. The supply pressure is large, and the domestic demand is weak. Although the export is increasing in the short term, there are uncertainties in the Indian import anti - dumping policy [6][7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory I. Caustic Soda Price & Spread - As of June 20, 2025, the SH main contract closing price of caustic soda futures was 2,256 yuan/ton (-32), the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 275 yuan/ton (-31). The spot price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 810 yuan/ton (-20), and that of 50% liquid caustic soda was 1,330 yuan/ton (-50) [1]. II. PVC Price & Spread - As of June 20, 2025, the main contract closing price of PVC futures was 4,903 yuan/ton (+3), the East China basis was - 113 yuan/ton (+17), and the South China basis was - 23 yuan/ton (+27). The spot price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China was 4,790 yuan/ton (+20), in South China was 4,880 yuan/ton (+30). The spot price of ethylene - based PVC in East China was 5,000 yuan/ton (+50), and in South China was 4,920 yuan/ton (+0) [5]. III. Cost - Profit - **Caustic Soda**: As of June 20, 2025, the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of caustic soda + 0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) was 837.83 yuan/ton (-62.50), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of caustic soda + 1 ton of PVC) was 205.03 yuan/ton (-62.50), the single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong was 1,540.15 yuan/ton (-62.50), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of caustic soda + 1 ton of PVC) was 1,284.03 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2]. - **PVC**: As of June 20, 2025, the production gross profit of calcium carbide - based PVC was - 493.98 yuan/ton (+17.77), the production gross profit of ethylene - based PVC was - 640.42 yuan/ton (-79.88), and the export profit of PVC was - 10 US dollars/ton (-1) [5]. IV. Caustic Soda Supply - The caustic soda operating rate was 81.20% (+0.30%), and the weekly output was 79.28 tons (+0.23). Recently, there are both plant overhauls and restarts in Shandong, and the overall operating rate has increased slightly month - on - month. In the later stage, there are plans to put into production new capacities in Gansu Yaowang and Tianjin Bohua, and the supply - side pressure is expected to increase [1][2]. V. Liquid Chlorine Price and Liquid Chlorine Downstream - As of June 20, 2025, the price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was 1 yuan/ton (+0). The operating rates of downstream products such as propylene oxide, epichlorohydrin, and dichloromethane have increased, and the weekly output of chloroform has also increased [2]. VI. PVC Supply - The upstream calcium carbide average operating load was 63.10% (+1.51%), the PVC operating rate was 78.62% (-0.63%), the calcium carbide - based PVC operating rate was 80.43% (-1.34%), and the ethylene - based PVC operating rate was 73.81% (+1.22). The loss due to shutdown and overhaul was 12.57 tons (+0.37). Although the overall operating rate has decreased month - on - month, the output is still at a high level, and there are plans to put into production new capacities from June to July, so the supply pressure is still large [5][6]. VII. Caustic Soda Downstream Demand - The operating rate of the main downstream product, alumina, was 80.74% (-0.13%), the weekly output was 171.50 tons (-0.30), and the port inventory was 6.80 tons (+1.80). The operating rates of non - aluminum downstream industries such as printing and dyeing, viscose staple fiber, white cardboard, and broad - leaf pulp have shown different degrees of decline or increase [1]. VIII. PVC Downstream Demand - The comprehensive operating rate of PVC downstream was 44.31% (-1.49%), among which the operating rates of PVC pipes, profiles, and films have all decreased. The pre - sales volume of production enterprises was 64.79 tons (+0.96). The domestic demand is weak, but the export orders have increased month - on - month, and the Indian BIS standard policy has been postponed, which supports the short - term export demand [5][6]. IX. Caustic Soda & PVC Inventory Data - **Caustic Soda**: The domestic liquid caustic soda plant - level inventory was 36.65 tons (-3.88), and the flake caustic soda plant - level inventory was 2.85 tons (+0.00) [2]. - **PVC**: The PVC plant - level inventory was 40.16 tons (+0.51), and the social inventory was 35.51 tons (+0.03), including 31.23 tons in East China (+0.01) and 4.28 tons in South China (+0.02) [5].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 | 旺季预期 震荡 | VS OPEC+增产，油价盘整。OPEC+持续增产，原油远月压力较大；夏季原油 | | | | 消费旺季即将到来；中美关税超预期下降，宏观面改善，市场风险偏好上升。SC【445-465】 | | LPG | 偏弱 | 仓单压制盘面，液化气走势偏弱。近期液化气仓单不断攀升，盘面受到压制，油价偏弱； | | | | 下游利润不佳，但对美关税下降后，进口成本下降，开工率有上升预期。PG【4030-4080】 | | L | 偏弱 | 期现齐跌，社库去化速度放缓，本周装置计划重启增多，供给充沛；抢出口可持续性不 | | | | 强，农膜季节性淡季，反弹偏空。L【7050-7150】 | | PP | 偏弱 | 内需淡季，期现齐跌，5-7 月即将迎来新一轮投产高峰期，基本面供需格局偏弱，向下考 | | | | 验前低支撑位，反弹偏空。PP【6930-7030】 | | PVC | 偏弱 | 成本坍塌，开工高位窄幅下滑。5-6 月有多套新装置计划投产，出口尚存不确定性，基本 | | | | 面预期 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 旺季预期 VSOPEC+增产，油价区间震荡。夏季原油消费旺季即将到来；中美关税超预期 | | 原油 | 震荡 | 下降，宏观面改善，市场风险偏好上升；OPEC+扩产持续增产，原油远月压力较大。SC | | | | 【455-475】 | | LPG | 偏弱 | 仓单压制盘面，液化气走势偏弱。近期液化气不断攀升，盘面受到压制，走势偏弱；成 | | | | 本端反弹，但下游利润不佳，PDH 开工率下降，港口库存连续累库。PG【4200-4230】 | | L | 偏弱 | 现货疲软，基差走弱，社库去化速度放缓，供给充沛；短期出口端抢出口有一定支撑， | | | | 内贸淡季，反弹偏空。L【7180-7275】 | | PP | 偏弱 | 成本端原油偏弱，上中游库存去化，月内存新装置投产计划，供给充沛，内需淡季，基 | | | | 本面供需格局偏弱，反弹偏空。PP【7000-7100】 | | PVC | 震荡 | 仓单下降，4 月出口表现依旧亮眼，本周开工存上行预期，出口后市尚存不确定性，盘面 | | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - The steel industry shows a structure of high production, low inventory, weak cost support, and improved demand expectations. It is approaching the seasonal off - season, and there is a possibility of weakening manufacturing demand (exports). The price is expected to oscillate at a low level, with attention paid to whether there is support at the previous low. It is advisable to wait and see for now [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The iron ore market is expected to be mainly in a state of oscillation in the short term. Although the iron ore inventory is slightly decreasing under high pig iron production, the supply is expected to increase in the future, and the macro - expectation improvement may bring sentiment repair [3]. Coke Industry - The coke market is in a weak state. The supply side has improved production due to good orders, and the demand side shows a sign of peaking and falling. It is recommended to short the coke 2509 contract opportunistically and continue to hold the strategy of longing hot - rolled coils and shorting coke [5]. Coking Coal Industry - The coking coal market is in a weak pattern, with the supply being relatively high and the demand likely to decline. It is recommended to short the coking coal 2509 contract opportunistically and continue to hold the strategy of longing hot - rolled coils and shorting coking coal [5]. Ferrosilicon Industry - The supply - demand contradiction of ferrosilicon has been significantly alleviated, and it is expected that the price will oscillate in the short term. Attention should be paid to the marginal change in exports [6]. Ferromanganese Industry - The ferromanganese price is expected to continue to oscillate and decline. Although the supply - demand gap is narrowing under production cuts, the cost and supply pressure still exist [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - The prices of most steel products show minor changes. For example, the spot price of rebar in South China increased by 10 yuan/ton, while the 05 - contract price of rebar decreased by 20 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The cost of steel billets decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the profit of hot - rolled coils in East China decreased by 13 yuan/ton. The profit of rebar in different regions also showed varying degrees of decline [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average pig iron production remained unchanged at 245.6 tons, and the production of five major steel products decreased by 5.8 tons. The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 3.1%, with rebar and hot - rolled coils having a better de - stocking situation [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 3.1%, and the apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 8.1%. The apparent demand for rebar increased by 21.7% [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The basis of the 09 - contract for various iron ore types increased significantly. For example, the basis of the 09 - contract for PB powder increased by 57.2 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 209.0% [3]. Supply and Demand - The global iron ore shipment volume increased by 10.5% week - on - week, and the domestic arrival volume decreased by 3.5%. The pig iron production may decline slightly, but it is still expected to remain at a high level [3]. Inventory Change - The inventory of 45 ports decreased by 0.8% week - on - week, and the inventory of 247 steel mills increased slightly by 0.0% [3]. Coke Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of the coke 09 - contract decreased by 1.4%, and the 09 - basis increased by 21 yuan/ton. The coking profit increased by 85.7% week - on - week [5]. Supply and Demand - The daily average production of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.3%, and the pig iron production of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.4% [5]. Inventory Change - The total coke inventory decreased by 1.1%, with the inventory of coking plants, steel mills, and ports all showing a downward trend [5]. Coking Coal Industry Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of the coking coal 09 - contract decreased by 0.8%, and the 09 - basis decreased by 30 yuan/ton. The sample coal mine profit decreased by 4.3% week - on - week [5]. Supply and Demand - The production of raw coal and clean coal increased slightly, and the daily average production of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.3% [5]. Inventory Change - The clean coal inventory of Fenwei sample mines increased by 9.2%, the inventory of coking plants decreased by 3.5%, and the port inventory increased by 2.8% [5]. Ferrosilicon Industry Ferrosilicon Spot Prices and Spreads - The price of the ferrosilicon 72%FeSi in some regions decreased slightly, and the SF - SM main - contract spread increased by 14 yuan/ton [6]. Cost and Profit - The production cost in some regions decreased slightly, and the production profit in Inner Mongolia increased by 2.5% [6]. Supply and Demand - The ferrosilicon production decreased by 9.15%, and the demand remained stable [6]. Inventory Change - The inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased by 11.8% [6]. Ferromanganese Industry Ferromanganese Spot Prices and Spreads - The price of the ferromanganese main - contract decreased by 1.1%, and the spread between Inner Mongolia and the main - contract increased by 66 yuan/ton [6]. Cost and Profit - The production cost remained unchanged, and the production profit in Inner Mongolia remained the same [6]. Supply and Demand - The ferromanganese production decreased by 5.4%, and the demand decreased slightly by 0.2% [6]. Inventory Change - The inventory of 63 sample enterprises increased by 13.9%, and the average available days decreased by 7.0% [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Views Methanol - Port inventory inflection point appears, import increment expectation exerts pressure, and the increasing inventory pressure leads to a significant weakening of the basis. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate downward in the short term, with a target range of 2050 - 2100. The 69 reverse spread can be reduced at low levels [1]. Urea - The upstream new order shipment situation is fair, and most urea factories still have pre - received orders to be delivered, but the market sentiment is cautious. The trading logic of the urea market lies in the demand side, mainly the start - up rhythm of domestic agricultural demand. If there is concentrated procurement at the beginning of June, it may support the short - term price. It is recommended to wait and observe in the short - term [3]. PVC and Caustic Soda - For caustic soda, in the short term, the supply pressure is limited during the concentrated maintenance period. The alumina industry has a resumption expectation, and the increase in the purchase price of Shandong mainstream factories is the main driving force for the spot price increase. The futures price may rise further, but there are risks. It is recommended to maintain a wait - and - see attitude, and aggressive investors can try a positive spread. For PVC, the short - term rebound is due to macro - stimulation and supply - demand support, but there is an over - supply pressure in the medium - to - long - term. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the upper resistance of the 09 contract around 5100 [7][8]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: Short - term supply - demand is good, but it is under pressure. It is recommended to go long at low levels around 6600. - PTA: There is an expectation of supply - demand turning weak, and it is recommended to go long at low levels around 4600 and pay attention to reverse spread opportunities. - MEG: Expected to destock in May - June, but the upward space is restricted. It is recommended to wait and observe unilaterally and go for a positive spread at low levels for the 9 - 1 spread. - Short - fiber: The raw material price is under pressure, and it is recommended to expand the processing margin at a low level. - Bottle - chip: The supply is expected to increase, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to expand the processing margin at the lower limit of the range [12]. Polyolefin - LLDPE: Before early June, maintenance increases, imports are low, demand improves in the short - term, and inventory is expected to decrease. - PP: The maintenance reaches a peak in late May, supply pressure increases later, demand has short - term benefits but mid - term concerns. It is recommended to go short at high levels unilaterally, and the LP spread is expected to expand [32]. Crude Oil - Short - term geopolitical risks, macro and fundamental factors are in a stalemate, and the oil price is expected to oscillate within a range. It is recommended to use a band - trading strategy, and consider buying volatility for options [35]. Styrene - The recent rebound is based on demand expectation correction and low - inventory support, but the price shows weakness. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term and be bearish in the medium - term. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of the EB - BZ spread widening [41]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Methanol - **Price and Spread**: Most methanol futures and spot prices declined on May 20 compared to May 19, with significant changes in some spreads such as MA2505 - 2509 and MA2501 - 2505 [1]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory increased by 11.14%, while Zhongchun Port inventory decreased by 13.88%. The weekly arrival volume increased by 12.50% [1]. - **Upstream and Downstream开工率**: Some upstream and downstream开工率 changed, with the domestic enterprise开工率 slightly decreasing, and the external - procurement MTO device开工率 increasing by 12.67% [1]. Urea - **Futures and Spot**: Futures prices showed different changes, and most spot prices declined slightly. Some spreads and basis also changed [3]. - **Position and Production Cost**: The long - position and short - position of the top 20 changed, and the production cost of some raw materials remained stable [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea daily and weekly production, inventory, and order days showed different changes [3]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Price and Spread**: PVC and caustic soda spot and futures prices changed, with some spreads and basis showing significant fluctuations [7]. - **Overseas Quotation and Export Profit**: Overseas quotations and export profits of PVC and caustic soda changed, with a significant decline in the export profit of PVC [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: The开工率 of the chlor - alkali industry and downstream industries changed, and the inventory of PVC and caustic soda decreased [7][8]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Price and Spread**: Prices of upstream and downstream products in the polyester industry chain changed, and there were also changes in various spreads such as PX - related, PTA - related, and MEG - related spreads [12]. - **开工率**: The开工率 of various industries in the polyester industry chain, including PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester, showed different changes [12]. Polyolefin - **Price and Spread**: Futures and spot prices of LLDPE and PP changed, and some spreads and basis also changed [32]. - **Inventory and开工率**: PE and PP inventory showed different trends, and the开工率 of upstream and downstream industries changed [32]. Crude Oil - **Price and Spread**: Crude oil prices and spreads, including Brent, WTI, and SC, changed on May 21 compared to May 20 [35]. - **Refined Oil**: Refined oil prices, spreads, and cracking spreads also changed [35]. Styrene - **Upstream Price**: Prices of upstream raw materials such as Brent crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, and pure benzene changed [38]. - **Spot and Futures**: Styrene spot and futures prices declined, and the basis and monthly spread changed [39]. - **Overseas Quotation and Import Profit**: Overseas quotations of styrene declined, and the import profit data was incomplete [40]. - **开工率 and Profit**: The开工率 and profit of the styrene industry chain changed, with significant increases in the integrated and non - integrated profits of styrene [41]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of pure benzene, styrene, and related products changed, with most showing a decreasing trend [41].

2025年05月21日 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 05 月 21 日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 橡胶：宽幅震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 合成橡胶：丁二烯回调，震荡承压 | 4 | | 沥青：区间震荡，观望为上 | 6 | | LLDPE：短期震荡，后期仍有压力 | 8 | | PP：价格小跌，成交一般 | 10 | | 烧碱：反弹难持续 | 11 | | 纸浆：震荡运行 | 13 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 15 | | 甲醇：震荡承压 | 16 | | 尿素：高位震荡 | 18 | | 苯乙烯：短期震荡 | 20 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 21 | | LPG：短期支撑走强，关注内盘反弹 | 22 | | PVC：后期仍有压力 | 25 | | 燃料油：日盘小幅上涨，短期转入调整走势 | 27 | | 低硫燃料油：夜盘继续转弱，外盘高低硫价差小幅回弹 | 27 | | 集运指数（欧线）：高位震荡，6-8反套减仓止盈；10-12反套持有 | 28 | | 短纤：短期震荡，成本支撑偏弱 | 31 | | 瓶片：短期震荡，成 ...

晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：周末到货增加 关注铝库存走势 投资咨询业务资格： 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 右。2024 年 12 月 30 日-2025 年 1 月 5 日，10 个重点城市新建商品房成 交（签约）面积总计 223.4 万平方米，环比下降 40.3%，同比增长 43.2%。 成材昨日继续震荡下行，价格再创近期新低。在供需双弱的格局下， 市场情绪同样偏悲观，导致价格重心持续下移。无论从宏观上还是产业上， 市场近期均无太多亮点。且今年冬储偏低迷，对价格支撑不强。 观点：震荡整理运行。 后期关注/风险因素：宏观政策；下游需求情况。 成 材：武秋婷 原材料：程 鹏 有色金属：于梦雪 基本面来看，矿端扰动再起，据媒体报道，几内亚政府宣布已经收回 了 51 份矿业许可。一些分析师认为，此举是全球第二大铝土矿生产国对大 型运营商发出的警告。据 SMM 氧化铝理论利润数据显示，自 3 月 19 日以来， 氧化铝企业理论利润便开始出现亏损态势，此后亏损情况一直持续 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - The steel industry presents a structure of high production, low inventory, weak cost support, and expected demand recovery. It is about to face the seasonal off - season and the possibility of weakening manufacturing demand (exports). The price is expected to oscillate at a low level, and it is recommended to wait and see for now [1]. Iron Ore Industry - This week, the daily average iron ore production has peaked and declined, while the port clearance volume has slightly increased. It is expected that the iron ore production will remain at a high level in the short term. The iron ore is slightly de - stocked under high iron ore production, and the steel mill inventory remains low. The terminal demand of finished products determines the sustainability of high - level iron ore production. It is expected that the iron ore will oscillate in the short term [4]. Silicon and Manganese Industry - For silicon iron, the daily production has declined, the supply pressure has been gradually relieved, and the factory inventory has gradually decreased, but the overall inventory is still at a medium - high level. For silicon manganese, the production is accelerating to decline, the supply and demand contradiction is limited, and the price is expected to oscillate, stabilize, and rebound [5]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - The coke and coking coal futures showed a weak oscillating trend last week. The supply - demand pattern is still loose in the short term. It is recommended to short the 2509 contracts of coke and coking coal at high prices and continue to hold the arbitrage strategy of long hot - rolled coils and short coke/coking coal [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of most steel products decreased. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China decreased by 30 yuan/ton, and the 10 - contract price decreased by 36 yuan/ton. The cost of some steel products decreased, and the profit of most steel products increased [1]. - **Production**: The daily average iron ore production remained unchanged at 245.6 tons, the production of five major steel products decreased by 5.8 tons (- 0.7%), the rebar production increased by 3.0 tons (1.3%), and the hot - rolled coil production decreased by 8.4 tons (- 2.6%) [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 45.4 tons (- 3.1%), the rebar inventory decreased by 33.8 tons (- 5.2%), and the hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 17.6 tons (- 4.8%) [1]. - **Demand**: The daily average construction material trading volume decreased by 0.3 tons (- 3.1%), the apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 68.6 tons (8.1%), the apparent demand for rebar increased by 46.4 tons (21.7%), and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils increased by 20.0 tons (6.5%) [1]. Iron Ore Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of most iron ore varieties decreased. For example, the warehouse - receipt cost of PB powder decreased by 8.8 yuan/ton (- 1.1%), and the spot price of PB powder at Rizhao Port decreased by 8.0 yuan/ton (- 1.0%). The basis of some varieties increased significantly [4]. - **Supply**: The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 95.1 tons (- 3.9%), and the global shipment volume decreased by 21.5 tons (- 0.7%) [4]. - **Demand**: The daily average iron ore production of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.9 tons (- 0.4%), and the 45 - port daily average port clearance volume increased by 8.7 tons (2.8%) [4]. - **Inventory**: The 45 - port inventory decreased by 174.8 tons (- 1.2%), and the inventory of imported iron ore in 247 steel mills increased by 2.2 tons (0.0%) [4]. Silicon and Manganese Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese increased slightly. The closing price of the silicon iron main contract increased by 26.0 yuan/ton (0.5%), and the closing price of the silicon manganese main contract increased by 12.0 yuan/ton (0.2%) [5]. - **Cost and Profit**: The production cost of some regions remained stable, and the production profit of some regions increased or remained unchanged [5]. - **Supply**: The production of silicon iron decreased by 0.9 tons (- 5.4%), and the production of silicon manganese decreased by 0.9 tons (- 5.4%). The start - up rates of both decreased [5]. - **Demand**: The demand for silicon iron and silicon manganese remained relatively stable [5]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of 60 sample silicon iron enterprises decreased by 1.0 tons (- 11.8%), and the inventory of 63 sample silicon manganese enterprises increased by 2.5 tons (13.9%) [5]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of coke and coking coal decreased. For example, the price of first - class wet - quenched coke in Shanxi decreased by 50 yuan/ton (- 3.84%), and the price of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse - receipt) decreased by 20 yuan/ton (- 1.9%) [6]. - **Supply**: The coke production increased slightly, and the coking coal production remained at a relatively high level. The domestic coal mines continued to resume production, and the Mongolian customs clearance volume increased from a low level [6]. - **Demand**: The iron ore production showed signs of peaking and declining, and the downstream users' replenishment was mainly on - demand [6]. - **Inventory**: The coke inventory in coking plants continued to decline, the port inventory decreased slightly, and the steel mill inventory was low. The coking coal inventory in mines continued to accumulate, and the downstream inventory was at a low level [6].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 供给端来看，上周工业硅供应量为6.8万吨，环比有所减少1.44%。 需求端来看，上周工业硅需求为6.7万吨，环比增长19.64%.需求有所抬升.多晶硅库存为25.7万 吨，处于低位，硅片亏损，电池片亏损，组件盈利；有机硅库存为105000吨，处于低位，有机 硅生产利润为-301元/吨，处于亏损状态，其综合开工率为60.11%，环比持平，低于历史同期平 均水平；铝合金锭库存为1.47万吨，处于低位，进口亏损为702元/吨，A356铝送至无锡运费和 利润为516.79元/吨，再生铝开工率为55%，环比增加4.76%,处于低位。 成本端来看，新疆地区样本通氧553生产亏损为3555元/吨，枯水期成本支撑有所上升。 2、基差: 05月12日，华东不通氧现货价9000元/吨，06合约基差为680元/吨，现货升水期货。 偏多。 3、库存: 社会库存为59.6万吨，环比减少1.16%,样本企业库存为264900吨，环比增加1.44%,主要港口库 存为13.3万吨，环比减少2.20%。 偏空。 4 ...