Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - On April 2, polysilicon showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend, with the main contract 2506 closing at 43,680 yuan/ton, an intraday increase of 0.41%, and the position increasing by 1,459 lots to 28,096 lots. The SMM N-type polysilicon material price was 42,000 yuan/ton, and the spot discount to the main contract widened to 1,680 yuan/ton. Industrial silicon showed a volatile and slightly weaker trend, with the main contract 2505 closing at 9,760 yuan/ton, an intraday decrease of 0.2%, and the position decreasing by 17,564 lots to 292,000 lots. The Baichuan industrial silicon spot reference price was 10,680 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable product 553 dropped to 9,650 yuan/ton, and the spot discount widened to 135 yuan/ton. There were news of joint production cuts in the industry. Before the Tomb-Sweeping Festival, some short positions in industrial silicon began to exit, and the short-term futures market showed signs of stopping the decline and stabilizing. The inventory destocking in the component segment was slow, suppressing the upward transmission elasticity of demand, and the high inventory restricted the rebound space. Under the structural mismatch pressure between short-term demand recovery and medium-term supply increase, the spread between near and far months of polysilicon still had room to widen. After the festival, continue to pay attention to the delivery progress and downstream production scheduling rhythm. During the festival, it is recommended to control positions and hold light positions [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Viewpoints - Polysilicon was volatile and slightly stronger on April 2, while industrial silicon was volatile and slightly weaker. There were joint production cut news in the industry, and short-term industrial silicon futures showed signs of stabilizing. The slow inventory destocking in the component segment restricted demand transmission, and the polysilicon spread had room to widen. Attention should be paid to delivery and production scheduling after the festival, and positions should be controlled during the festival [2] Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased by 20 yuan/ton to 9,800 yuan/ton, and the near-month contract increased by 70 yuan/ton to 9,785 yuan/ton. Most spot prices remained stable, with the lowest deliverable product 553 at 9,650 yuan/ton, and the spot discount widened to 135 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipt was 69,710 tons, and the total inventory increased by 2,345 tons to 348,955 tons [4] - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement price of the main and near-month contracts increased by 120 yuan/ton to 43,680 yuan/ton. The N-type polysilicon material price was 42,000 yuan/ton, and the spot discount widened to 1,680 yuan/ton [4] - **Organosilicon**: The DMC price in the East China market was 14,500 yuan/ton, remaining stable. The price of dimethyl silicone oil decreased by 1,200 yuan/ton to 14,800 yuan/ton [4] - **Downstream Products**: The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and photovoltaic modules remained unchanged [4] Chart Analysis Industrial Silicon and Cost-side Prices - Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [6][7] Downstream Product Prices - Charts display the prices of DMC, organosilicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [13][14] Inventory - Charts present the industrial silicon futures inventory, factory warehouse inventory, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [19][20] Cost and Profit - Charts show the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, weekly cost and profit of industrial silicon, aluminum alloy processing industry profit, DMC cost and profit, and polysilicon cost and profit [25][26]

姓名：曹宝琴 邮箱：caobaoqin@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F3008987 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0012851 今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-焦煤】Mysteel统计独立焦企全样本：产能利用率 为71.90%增0.36%；焦 炭日均产 量64.13增0.32，焦 炭库存 129.99减4.96，炼焦煤总库存862.88增40.66，焦煤可用天数 10.1天增0.43天。评：供应端，产地部分煤矿因井下原因及煤 矸石处理问题收紧产量，甘其毛都通关车数环比回升，口岸库 存居高不下，海外澳煤价格低位企稳，澳煤进口性价比暂无。 需求端，焦炭产量小幅增加，刚需支撑仍存，下游采购积极性 好转，上游煤矿小幅去库。总体来看，宏观情绪改善以及刚需 支撑尚存，现货市场情绪有所回暖，盘面估值偏低，下行阻力 加大。煤矿生产仍处高位，基本面改善程度有限，二季度蒙煤 长协价格仍有下调预期，预计短期盘面震荡偏弱。 【短评-纯碱】全国重质纯碱主流价1504元/吨，下降3元/ 吨；纯碱开工88.96%，开工窄幅增加；金山、江苏井神检修结 束，盐湖、青海昆仑设备恢复；连云港碱业110万吨/年新产能 预期一季度投产；纯 ...