Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - PVC is in a state of high production and weak demand, with an expected increase in inventory in the future. The fundamentals are difficult to improve, but the valuation is at a relatively low level, and there may be positive macro - level news, so it is expected to show a short - term oscillatory trend. Technically, V2601 should pay attention to the support around the previous low of 4644 and the pressure around the 20 - day moving average of 4812 [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Market Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of PVC is 4719 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the trading volume is 535,541 lots, down 14,834 lots; the open interest is 1,194,995 lots, up 3,089 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 131,012 lots, up 1,096 lots [3]. - **Spot Market**: The price of ethylene - based PVC in East China is 4850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4613.08 yuan/ton, down 6.15 yuan. The price of ethylene - based PVC in South China is 4820 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4708.75 yuan/ton, up 1.25 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China is 690 dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia is 650 dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe is 710 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC is - 99 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan [3]. - **Upstream Situation**: The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China is 2800 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China is 2690 yuan/ton, up 16.67 yuan; in Northwest China is 2530 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is - 49.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. The CFR mid - price of VCM in the Far East is 524 dollars/ton, unchanged; in Southeast Asia is 549 dollars/ton, unchanged. The CFR mid - price of EDC in the Far East is 183 dollars/ton, down 6 dollars; in Southeast Asia is 192 dollars/ton, down 9 dollars [3]. - **Industry Situation**: The weekly operating rate of PVC is 76.69%, down 5.94 percentage points; the operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 74.71%, down 8.23 percentage points; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC is 81.26%, down 0.64 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC is 55.62 tons, down 0.08 tons; in East China is 50.48 tons, up 0.21 tons; in South China is 5.14 tons, down 0.29 tons [3]. - **Downstream Situation**: The national real estate climate index is 92.78, down 0.27. The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 45,399 million square meters, up 5,597.99 million square meters; the cumulative value of real estate construction area is 6,485,800,000 square meters, up 5,471.06 million square meters; the cumulative value of real estate development investment is 316.9394 billion yuan, up 35.8801 billion yuan [3]. - **Option Market**: The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 9.74%, down 0.41 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 9.52%, down 0.15 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options and call options is 15.05%, with the put option up 0.01 percentage points and the call option unchanged [3]. b. Industry News - From October 11th to 17th, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese PVC was 76.69%, a significant decline compared to the previous period. The downstream operating rate of PVC increased by 9.38% to 48.59%, with the pipe operating rate increasing by 7.17% to 40% and the profile operating rate increasing by 17.39% to 33.26% [3]. - As of October 16th, the social inventory of PVC decreased by 0.24% to 1.0338 million tons compared to the previous week. The average cost of calcium carbide - based PVC increased to 5142 yuan/ton, and the national average cost of ethylene - based PVC decreased to 5432 yuan/ton. The profit of calcium carbide - based PVC decreased to - 731 yuan/ton, and the profit of ethylene - based PVC decreased to - 552 yuan/ton [3]. c. Outlook - This week, many PVC plants are expected to restart, and the impact of newly shut - down plants is limited, so the capacity utilization rate of PVC is expected to return to a high level. In October, there are few maintenance plants and new production capacity is increasing, resulting in relatively high supply pressure [3]. - The real estate market remains weak, and downstream orders are poor. Downstream is expected to maintain just - in - time procurement. Affected by India's anti - dumping tax, the export market may remain on the sidelines. Due to the high - production and weak - demand situation of PVC, there is still an expectation of inventory accumulation in the future [3]. - The calcium carbide - based process is deeply in the red, and chlor - alkali enterprises use caustic soda profits to offset chlorine losses. However, the supply of calcium carbide is abundant and the price is weak, so the cost - side support is limited [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Aluminum - The alumina market remains weak with downward - trending futures prices. Supply pressure persists, while demand is sluggish. Short - term spot prices are expected to be under pressure, with the main contract oscillating between 2750 - 2950 yuan/ton [1]. - Aluminum prices maintained a high - level oscillation. The market trading atmosphere was weak. With a stable supply and resilient demand, short - term Shanghai aluminum is expected to oscillate at a high level, with the main contract in the range of 20700 - 21300 yuan/ton [1]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - Casting aluminum alloy followed the aluminum price in range oscillation. Cost support was prominent. With supply constraints and mild demand recovery, short - term ADC12 prices are expected to oscillate strongly, with the main contract in the range of 20200 - 20800 yuan/ton [3]. Zinc - Zinc prices oscillated. Supply is abundant, and the second - half production increase of domestic zinc smelters is limited. Short - term prices may rise due to macro - drivers but will likely oscillate, with the main contract in the range of 21500 - 22500 yuan/ton [6]. Copper - Copper prices oscillated. Macro factors and supply shortages support prices, while high prices suppress demand. The main contract should focus on the 84000 - 85000 support level [8]. Tin - Tin prices rebounded. Supply is tight, while demand is weak. Future price trends depend on the recovery of Burmese supply. If supply recovers well, prices may weaken; otherwise, they will likely oscillate at a high level [10]. Nickel - Nickel prices rose slightly. Macro risks increased, with cost support but inventory pressure. The mid - term supply is abundant, and the price is expected to oscillate in the range of 120000 - 126000 yuan/ton [12]. Stainless Steel - Stainless steel prices rose slightly. Macro factors are favorable, but demand is weak, and supply pressure exists. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the range of 12400 - 12800 yuan/ton [15]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures oscillated narrowly. After entering the peak season, supply - demand gaps remain. Short - term prices are expected to be strong, with the main contract in the range of 75000 - 78000 yuan/ton [17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Spread - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum rose 0.19% to 20970 yuan/ton, while alumina prices in various regions declined [1]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 21050 yuan/ton, and some scrap - refined spreads increased [3]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot rose 0.32% to 21940 yuan/ton [6]. - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper rose 0.12% to 85730 yuan/ton [8]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin rose 0.46% to 281300 yuan/ton [10]. - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel rose 0.33% to 122500 yuan/ton [12]. - **Stainless Steel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel rose 0.33% to 122500 yuan/ton, and 304/2B stainless steel prices increased slightly [12][15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate rose 0.14% to 74100 yuan/ton [17]. Fundamental Data - **Aluminum**: In September, alumina production decreased by 1.74% to 760.37 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 3.16% to 361.48 million tons [1]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: In September, recycled aluminum alloy ingot production increased by 7.48% to 66.10 million tons, and primary aluminum alloy ingot production increased by 4.43% to 28.30 million tons [3]. - **Zinc**: In September, refined zinc production decreased by 4.17% to 60.01 million tons, and imports decreased by 11.61% to 2.27 million tons [6]. - **Copper**: In September, electrolytic copper production decreased by 4.31% to 112.10 million tons, and imports increased by 26.50% to 33.43 million tons [8]. - **Tin**: In September, tin ore imports decreased by 15.13% to 8714 tons, and SMM refined tin production decreased by 31.71% to 10510 tons [10]. - **Nickel**: In September, China's refined nickel production increased by 1.26% to 32200 tons, and imports decreased by 3.00% to 17010 tons [12]. - **Stainless Steel**: In September, China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production increased by 0.38% to 182.17 million tons, and imports increased by 2.70% to 12.03 million tons [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In September, lithium carbonate production increased by 2.37% to 87260 tons, and demand increased by 12.28% to 116801 tons [17].

Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Steel and iron ore, which had significant declines in the previous period, showed signs of stabilization yesterday. Steel short positions were reduced, while iron ore positions continued to increase. - Although plate inventories have accumulated significantly, with appropriate production cuts by steel mills, the inventory is expected to turn to destocking. The reduction in hot-rolled coil production is not obvious, and the spread between hot-rolled coil and rebar is expected to continue to converge. For single-side trading, it is advisable to wait and see for now. The January contracts of rebar and hot-rolled coil are expected to stabilize around 3000 and 3200 yuan respectively [1]. Summary by Directory Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China were 3190, 3120, and 3230 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 0, -10, and 0 yuan compared to the previous day. Rebar futures contracts 05, 10, and 01 were 3102, 3141, and 3049 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 12, 191, and 15 yuan [1]. - Hot-rolled coil spot prices in East China, North China, and South China were 3280, 3190, and 3230 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 0, -10, and 0 yuan compared to the previous day. Hot-rolled coil futures contracts 05, 10, and 01 were 3233, 3254, and 3219 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 10, -356, and 7 yuan [1]. Cost and Profit - The steel billet price was 2920 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the slab price was 3730 yuan/ton, also unchanged. - The cost of Jiangsu electric furnace rebar decreased by 2 yuan to 3307 yuan/ton, and the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar decreased by 17 yuan to 3140 yuan/ton. - The profit of East China hot-rolled coil decreased by 4 yuan, and the profit of North China hot-rolled coil decreased by 14 yuan to -55 yuan/ton [1]. Production - The daily average pig iron output was 240.9 tons, a decrease of 0.6 tons or 0.3% compared to the previous day. The output of the five major steel products was 857.0 tons, a decrease of 6.4 tons or 0.7% compared to the previous day. The rebar output was 201.2 tons, a decrease of 2.2 tons or 1.1% compared to the previous day, among which the electric furnace output increased by 3.1 tons or 13.5%, and the converter output decreased by 5.4 tons or 3.0%. The hot-rolled coil output was 321.8 tons, a decrease of 1.5 tons or 0.4% compared to the previous day [1]. Inventory - The inventory of the five major steel products was 1582.3 tons, a decrease of 18.5 tons or 1.2% compared to the previous day. The rebar inventory was 641.1 tons, a decrease of 18.6 tons or 2.8% compared to the previous day. The hot-rolled coil inventory was 419.2 tons, an increase of 6.3 tons or 1.5% compared to the previous day [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume was 10.2 tons, an increase of 1.0 tons or 11.4% compared to the previous day. The apparent demand for the five major steel products was 875.4 tons, an increase of 124.0 tons or 16.5% compared to the previous day. The apparent demand for rebar was 219.8 tons, an increase of 66.6 tons or 43.5% compared to the previous day. The apparent demand for hot-rolled coil was 315.6 tons, an increase of 20.5 tons or 7.0% compared to the previous day [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The iron ore futures continued to fluctuate weakly yesterday. The supply and demand situation of iron ore is changing from balanced and tight to relatively loose. Due to the weak operation of steel prices, the profitability of steel mills continues to decline, and the weak demand side will force iron ore to operate weakly. It is recommended to wait and see for single-side trading, with a reference range of 750 - 800. For arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on coking coal and short on iron ore [3]. Summary by Directory Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of Carajas fines, PB fines, Brazilian mixed fines, and Jinbuba fines were 826.4, 824.9, 832.0, and 834.9 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 1.1, 3.3, 0.0, and 3.2 yuan compared to the previous day. - The 01 contract basis for Carajas fines, PB fines, Brazilian mixed fines, and Jinbuba fines was 52.9, 51.4, 58.5, and 61.4 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 4.1, 6.3, 3.0, and 6.2 yuan compared to the previous day [3]. Spot Prices and Price Indices - The spot prices of Carajas fines, PB fines, Brazilian mixed fines, and Jinbuba fines at Rizhao Port were 904.0, 778.0, 810.0, and 733.0 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, and 3.0 yuan compared to the previous day. - The Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap price was 105.7 dollars/ton, an increase of 0.2 dollars compared to the previous day, and the Platts 62% Fe price was 106.2 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous day [3]. Supply - The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports was 3045.8 tons, an increase of 437.1 tons or 16.8% compared to the previous week. The weekly global shipment volume was 3207.5 tons, a decrease of 71.5 tons or -2.2% compared to the previous week. The national monthly import volume was 10522.5 tons, an increase of 61.5 tons or 0.6% compared to the previous month [3]. Demand - The weekly average daily pig iron output of 247 steel mills was 241.0 tons, a decrease of 0.6 tons or -0.2% compared to the previous week. The weekly average daily port clearance volume at 45 ports was 327.0 tons, a decrease of 9.4 tons or -2.8% compared to the previous week. The national monthly pig iron output was 6979.3 tons, a decrease of 100.5 tons or -1.4% compared to the previous month. The national monthly crude steel output was 7736.9 tons, a decrease of 229.0 tons or -2.9% compared to the previous month [3]. Inventory Changes - The inventory at 45 ports increased by 61.6 tons or 0.4% compared to Monday of the previous week. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 9046.2 tons, a decrease of 990.6 tons or -9.9% compared to the previous week. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills remained unchanged at 21 days [3]. Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints Coke - Coke futures showed an oscillating upward trend yesterday. Recently, the spot and futures markets have not been in sync. After mainstream coke enterprises proposed a price increase once and then remained stable, port trade quotes rebounded. It is recommended to go long on coke 2601 at low prices, with a reference range of 1620 - 1770, and for arbitrage, go long on coking coal and short on coke [5]. Coking Coal - Coking coal futures also showed an oscillating upward trend yesterday. The spot auction prices in Shanxi recovered, and the prices of some coal types rebounded significantly, with Mongolian coal prices rising steadily. It is recommended to go long on coking coal 2601 at low prices in the short term, with a reference range of 1120 - 1250, and for arbitrage, go long on coking coal and short on coke [5]. Summary by Directory Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) remained unchanged at 1561 and 1613 yuan/ton respectively. The coke 01 contract was 1673 yuan/ton, an increase of 31 yuan or 1.9% compared to the previous day [5]. Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse receipt) and Mongolian 5 raw coal (warehouse receipt) were 1300 and 1247 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 30 and 41 yuan compared to the previous day. The coking coal 01 contract was 1186 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 yuan or 3.0% compared to the previous day [5]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants was 65.3 tons, a decrease of 0.8 tons or -1.3% compared to October 10th. The daily average output of 247 steel mills was 241.5 tons, a decrease of 0.3 tons or -0.1% compared to October 10th [5]. Demand - The pig iron output of 247 steel mills was 241.0 tons, a decrease of 0.6 tons or -0.2% compared to October 10th. The daily average output of all - sample coking plants was 65.3 tons, a decrease of 0.8 tons or -1.3% compared to October 10th [5]. Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory was 891.9 tons, a decrease of 17.9 tons or -2.0% compared to October 10th. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants was 57.3 tons, a decrease of 6.6 tons or -10.3% compared to October 10th. The coke inventory of 247 steel mills was 639.4 tons, a decrease of 11.4 tons or -1.7% compared to October 10th [5]. - The coking coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines' clean coal was 100.5 tons, a decrease of 10.7 tons or -9.6% compared to October 10th. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants was 997.4 tons, an increase of 38.3 tons or 4.0% compared to October 10th [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no information provided regarding industry investment ratings in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - Copper prices were volatile yesterday, with high prices suppressing demand. Macro factors include the approaching Sino - US tariff extension deadline and the unexpected decline in US ADP employment in September. Fundamentally, the shortage of copper ore supply is a long - term concern, and subsequent attention should be paid to demand changes and Sino - US tariff negotiations. The main support level is 84000 - 85000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market continued its weak operation, and the aluminum market remained in an oversupply situation, with spot prices expected to remain under pressure. The short - term main contract of aluminum may fluctuate in the 2750 - 2950 yuan/ton range. For aluminum, the price center of Shanghai aluminum futures has moved up, but high prices have suppressed spot purchases. The macro environment is favorable, and the fundamentals are in a tight - balance state. It is expected that Shanghai aluminum will maintain a high - level shock pattern in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 20700 - 21300 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The price of cast aluminum alloy futures showed a volatile trend. Cost support is prominent, but supply is restricted by raw material shortages and unclear policies. Demand is in a mild recovery state, and inventories are accumulating. It is expected that the short - term ADC12 price will maintain a high - level shock, with the main contract reference range of 20200 - 20800 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - Zinc prices were volatile, and there was still pressure above the price. Fundamentally, the supply - side logic has shifted from zinc ore to zinc ingots. The subsequent focus is on TC growth and inventory performance. In the short term, zinc prices may be driven up by macro factors but will likely maintain a shock pattern [7]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, while demand has not improved significantly. Considering the strong supply - side and macro - factor fluctuations, attention should be paid to buying opportunities when the macro - sentiment falls. The future trend of tin prices depends on the supply recovery in Myanmar in the fourth quarter [9]. Nickel - The Shanghai nickel market showed a narrow - range shock, and the market sentiment was weak. There are uncertainties in Sino - US tariffs and the Fed's interest - rate cut path. The supply of nickel ore is mixed, and the demand for stainless steel and nickel sulfate is not strong. It is expected that the market will fluctuate in the range of 120000 - 126000 yuan/ton [11]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market maintained a weak shock, and traders were mainly waiting and watching. Macro factors have uncertainties, and raw - material prices are firm. The supply pressure is increasing, and the peak - season demand has not been realized. It is expected that the short - term market will be in a weak shock adjustment, with the main operation range of 12400 - 12800 yuan/ton [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium - carbonate futures market was in an overall shock state. The supply - side has information uncertainties, while the demand is steadily optimistic. The fundamentals are in a tight - balance state during the peak season, and the whole - chain inventory is decreasing. It is expected that the short - term market will maintain a shock adjustment, with the main price center of 70000 - 75000 yuan/ton [17][19]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price was 85235 yuan/ton, down 0.88% from the previous day; the premium was 90 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton. Other copper varieties also showed price changes [1]. Fundamental Data - In September, electrolytic copper production was 112.10 million tons, down 4.31% month - on - month; in August, imports were 26.43 million tons, down 10.99% month - on - month. The operating rates of copper rod production from electrolytic copper and recycled copper decreased [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price was 20920 yuan/ton, up 0.10% from the previous day; the premium was 30 yuan/ton. The prices of alumina in different regions showed a downward trend [3]. Fundamental Data - In September, alumina production was 760.37 million tons, down 1.74% month - on - month; electrolytic aluminum production was 361.48 million tons, down 3.16% month - on - month. The operating rates of aluminum profiles and cables decreased [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The price of SMM ADC12 aluminum alloy was 21000 yuan/ton, down 0.24% from the previous day. The month - to - month spreads showed different changes [4]. Fundamental Data - In September, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 66.10 million tons, up 7.48% month - on - month; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 27.10 million tons, up 1.88% month - on - month. The operating rates of recycled and primary aluminum alloy increased [4]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price was 22010 yuan/ton, down 0.90% from the previous day. The import loss decreased, and the month - to - month spreads changed [7]. Fundamental Data - In September, refined zinc production was 60.01 million tons, down 4.17% month - on - month; in August, imports increased by 43.30% month - on - month. The operating rates of galvanizing, die - casting zinc alloy, and zinc oxide decreased [7]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price was 281700 yuan/ton, down 0.11% from the previous day; the premium remained unchanged. The LME 0 - 3 premium decreased [9]. Fundamental Data - In September, SMM refined tin production was 10510 tons, down 31.71% month - on - month; the average operating rate was 43.60%, down 31.77% month - on - month. The export volume of Indonesian refined tin in September increased by 50.00% [9]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price was 122300 yuan/ton, up 0.16% from the previous day. The import loss decreased, and the price of high - nickel pig iron decreased [11]. Fundamental Data - In September, China's refined nickel production was 32200 tons, up 1.26% month - on - month; imports were 17010 tons, down 3.00% month - on - month. Inventories in different regions changed [11]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) was 12900 yuan/ton, down 0.39% from the previous day. The prices of raw materials such as nickel ore and ferro - chrome showed different trends [13]. Fundamental Data - The production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China and Indonesia increased slightly in September. The import and export volumes of stainless steel changed, and the social inventory of 300 - series increased [13]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price remained unchanged at 73000 yuan/ton. The price of lithium hydroxide decreased slightly. The month - to - month spreads changed [17]. Fundamental Data - In September, lithium carbonate production was 87260 tons, up 2.37% month - on - month; demand was 116801 tons, up 12.28% month - on - month. The inventory in different links changed [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content was found in the provided reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - Near the Sino - US tariff extension deadline, tariff negotiation rhythm may drive short - term trading. The weak US employment data leads to expectations of further monetary easing by the Fed. The widening COMEX - LME spread attracts non - US copper to the US. In the long - term, copper supply shortage will support the price bottom, but short - term price is affected by demand changes and tariff negotiations [1]. Aluminum - After the holiday, the alumina futures price is under pressure, and the aluminum price fluctuates. The alumina supply is in excess, and the demand is weak. The aluminum market is in a tight balance, with high - price suppressing procurement and low inventory levels. The short - term prices of alumina and aluminum are expected to be range - bound [3]. Aluminum Alloy - After the holiday, the casting aluminum alloy futures price strengthens. The cost is supported, but the supply is restricted by raw materials and policies. The demand recovers moderately, and the inventory increase slows down. The short - term ADC12 price is expected to remain high and volatile [5]. Zinc - The supply of zinc is loose, and the demand is not outstanding. The short - term zinc price may be driven by the macro - environment, but the upward elasticity is limited. It may maintain a range - bound movement unless there are significant changes in demand or supply [8]. Tin - The supply of tin is tight, and the demand is weak. After the sharp decline of the outer - plate metal, the tin price may fall, but considering the strong fundamentals, it can be considered to buy at low prices after the risk is released. The future price depends on the supply recovery in Myanmar [10]. Nickel - The nickel price fluctuates widely. The macro - environment is uncertain, and the policy expectations of the Indonesian ore end are increasing. The cost is supported, but the medium - term supply is loose. The short - term price is expected to be range - bound [12]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel price fluctuates narrowly. The macro - environment is uncertain, the raw material price is firm, and the supply pressure is increasing. The demand improvement is not obvious, and the inventory reduction is slow. The short - term price is expected to be range - bound [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures price fluctuates. The supply path is becoming clear, but the news may bring variables. The demand is optimistic, and the inventory is decreasing. The short - term price is expected to be range - bound [14]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 86,680 yuan/ton, up 1.10% [1]. - SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium is 20 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [1]. Fundamental Data - September electrolytic copper production is 112.10 million tons, down 4.31% [1]. - August electrolytic copper import is 26.43 million tons, down 10.99% [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price is 20,980 yuan/ton, up 0.10% [3]. - SMM A00 aluminum premium is - 50 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [3]. Fundamental Data - September alumina production is 760.37 million tons, down 1.74% [3]. - September electrolytic aluminum production is 361.48 million tons, down 3.16% [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 21,100 yuan/ton, unchanged [5]. - The scrap - refined price difference of Foshan crushed primary aluminum is 1,524 yuan/ton, up 1.33% [5]. Fundamental Data - August recycled aluminum alloy ingot production is 66.10 million tons, up 7.48% [5]. - August primary aluminum alloy ingot production is 27.10 million tons, up 1.88% [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22,300 yuan/ton, up 0.72% [8]. - The import profit and loss is - 3,968 yuan/ton, up 199.94 yuan [8]. Fundamental Data - September refined zinc production is 60.01 million tons, down 4.17% [8]. - August refined zinc import is 2.57 million tons, up 43.30% [8]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price is 287,400 yuan/ton, up 1.13% [10]. - SMM 1 tin premium is 300 yuan/ton, unchanged [10]. Fundamental Data - August tin ore import is 10,267 tons, down 0.11% [10]. - September SMM refined tin production is 10,510 tons, down 31.71% [10]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 123,850 yuan/ton, up 0.20% [12]. - 1 Jinchuan nickel premium is 2,300 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [12]. Supply and Inventory - China's refined nickel production is 32,200 tons, up 1.26% [12]. - Refined nickel import is 17,010 tons, down 3.00% [12]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price is 13,050 yuan/ton, down 0.38% [13]. - The spot - futures price difference is 13,220 yuan/ton, up 2597.96% [13]. Fundamental Data - China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (43 companies) is 187.48 million tons, up 4.42% [13]. - Stainless steel import is 11.72 million tons, up 60.48% [13]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 73,550 yuan/ton, unchanged [14]. - SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 71,300 yuan/ton, unchanged [14]. Fundamental Data - September lithium carbonate production is 87,260 tons, up 2.37% [14]. - September lithium carbonate demand is 116,801 tons, up 12.28% [14].

Report Title - [New Energy Weekly Report] [1] Report Information - Report Date: October 13, 2025 [2] - Research Institution: Guomao Futures Nonferrous Metals Research Center [2] - Analysts: Fang Fuqiang, Xie Ling [2] - Assistant Analyst: Chen Yusen [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon market shows a pattern of increasing supply and demand, with prices likely to fluctuate. The polysilicon market has an "anti - involution" policy framework, and the fundamentals may improve in the medium to long term, but prices may fluctuate in the short term. The lithium carbonate market has strong terminal demand, and there may be a short - term supply - demand mismatch [8][9][86] Summary by Directory 1. Nonferrous and New Energy Price Monitoring - **Price Data**: The report monitors the closing prices of various nonferrous metals and new energy products, including the US dollar index, exchange rates, and prices of industrial silicon, copper, aluminum, etc. For example, the current value of industrial silicon is 8,685 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.52%, a weekly decrease of 3.07%, and an annual decrease of 20.94% [6] 2. Industrial Silicon (SI) and Polysilicon (PS) Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: National weekly production is 95,500 tons, a decrease of 0.81% from the previous week. The number of open furnaces is 313, an increase of 3 from the previous week. September production was 420,800 tons, a 9.10% increase from the previous month and a 7.33% decrease from the same period last year. October production is planned to be 456,600 tons, an 8.52% increase from the previous month and a 2.84% decrease from the same period last year [8] - **Demand**: Polysilicon weekly production is 32,000 tons, a 1.33% increase from the previous week. Organic silicon DMC weekly production is 47,600 tons, a 1.04% decrease from the previous week [8] - **Inventory**: The visible inventory is 693,900 tons, a 0.86% decrease from the previous week, with year - on - year growth of 23.18%. The industry inventory is 442,500 tons, a 0.56% decrease from the previous week [8] - **Cost and Profit**: The national average cost per ton is 9,087 yuan, a 0.07% decrease from the previous week, and the profit per ton is 133 yuan, an increase of 9 yuan/ton from the previous week [8] - **Investment View**: The supply and demand of industrial silicon both increase, and the price may fluctuate [8] Polysilicon - **Supply**: National weekly production is 31,300 tons, a 0.32% increase from the previous week. August production was 131,700 tons, a 23.31% increase from the previous month and a 2.41% increase from the same period last year. September production is planned to be 126,700 tons, a 3.80% decrease from the previous month and a 2.69% decrease from the same period last year [9] - **Demand**: Silicon wafer weekly production is 13.65GW, a 0.27% decrease from the previous week. The factory inventory is 16.60GW, a 0.45% increase from the previous week [9] - **Inventory**: The factory inventory is 25,390 tons, a 4.83% increase from the previous week, and the registered warehouse receipts are 24,420 tons, a 3.30% increase from the previous week [9] - **Cost and Profit**: The national average cost per ton is 41,543 yuan, remaining the same as the previous week, and the profit per ton is 9,057 yuan, remaining the same as the previous week [9] - **Investment View**: The "capacity reduction + sales at no less than cost price" policy framework may improve the fundamentals of polysilicon in the medium to long term. Due to the long - term non - implementation of "anti - involution", market sentiment has subsided, and prices may fluctuate in the short term [9] 3. Lithium Carbonate (LC) - **Supply**: National weekly production is 20,600 tons, a 0.58% increase from the previous week. September production was 87,300 tons, a 2.37% increase from the previous month and a 52.00% increase from the same period last year. October production is planned to be about 90,000 tons, a 3.09% increase from the previous month and a 50.78% increase from the same period last year [86] - **Import**: In August, the import volume of lithium carbonate was 21,800 tons, a 57.79% increase from the previous month and a 23.54% increase from the same period last year. In September, Chile's exports of lithium carbonate to China were 11,100 tons, a 14.49% decrease from the previous month and a 33.13% decrease from the same period last year [86] - **Material Demand**: The weekly production of iron - lithium materials is 78,100 tons, a 0.04% decrease from the previous week. The weekly production of ternary materials is 18,800 tons, a 0.48% increase from the previous week [86] - **Terminal Demand**: In August, the production of new energy vehicles was 1.391 million, a 11.91% increase from the previous month and a 27.40% increase from the same period last year; the sales volume was 1.3953 million, a 10.55% increase from the previous month and a 26.84% increase from the same period last year. From January to August, the cumulative winning bid power of domestic energy storage was 41.09GW/111.43GWh, a 20.71%/53.55% increase from the same period last year [86] - **Inventory**: The social inventory (including warehouse receipts) is 134,800 tons, a 1.48% decrease from the previous week. The lithium salt factory inventory is 34,700 tons, a 4.85% decrease from the previous week [86] - **Cost and Profit**: The cash production cost of lithium mica for external purchase is 77,806 yuan/ton, a 1.17% decrease from the previous week; the production profit is - 7,315 yuan/ton, an increase of 727 yuan/ton from the previous week [86] - **Investment View**: In the short term, there may be a supply - demand mismatch, pushing up prices. In the medium to long term, the pattern of oversupply remains unchanged, and capacity clearance is still awaited [86]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PVC industry is currently in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. The comprehensive profit of enterprises has declined to the lowest level this year, and the valuation pressure has decreased. However, the supply - side maintenance volume is small, and the output is at a historical high. With multiple new devices to be tested in the short term, domestic downstream demand is weak, and export expectations are poor in the fourth quarter. The medium - term supply - demand pattern is poor after the new device is put into production, and it is difficult to reverse the oversupply situation [11]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Cost - profit**: Wuhai calcium carbide price is 2400 yuan/ton, unchanged year - on - month; Shandong calcium carbide price is 2890 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan/ton year - on - month; Shaanxi medium - grade semi - coke is 730 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton year - on - month. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali integration has dropped significantly from the high, while the profit of ethylene production has improved slightly, and the overall valuation support has strengthened [11]. - **Supply**: The PVC capacity utilization rate is 82.6%, up 5.5% year - on - month. Among them, the calcium carbide method is 82.9%, up 6.2% year - on - month; the ethylene method is 81.9%, up 3.8% year - on - month. The maintenance volume increased slightly last month, but new devices released production, and the supply pressure actually increased. This month, the maintenance intensity is expected to decrease, and two new devices are planned to be tested and put into production this year, so the supply pressure is expected to continue to rise [11]. - **Demand**: In terms of exports, the year - on - year growth rate of export volume in August was weaker than that in the first half of the year, and it was difficult to drive the destocking of domestic inventory. The Indian anti - dumping policy is expected to be implemented from October to November, and the export growth rate is expected to decline further. The start - up of the three major downstream industries has rebounded slightly, but the overall downstream load is still weak in the real estate downturn cycle and difficult to reverse the oversupply situation [11]. - **Inventory**: The factory inventory is 38.4 tons, up 6.8 tons year - on - month; the social inventory is 103.6 tons, up 11.8 tons year - on - month; the overall inventory is 142 tons, up 18.6 tons year - on - month; the warehouse receipts continue to rise. Currently in the inventory accumulation cycle, inventory accumulation will continue without unexpected performance at the export end or obvious upstream production cuts [11]. - **Summary**: Last month, the trading was mainly based on the weak fundamentals of PVC. There was a rebound in the middle of the month driven by the sentiment of the building materials and black sectors, but it was difficult to support the weak pattern of significant inventory accumulation. In the medium term, the supply - demand pattern is poor after the new devices are put into production, and it is necessary to rely on export growth or the elimination of old devices to digest the domestic excess capacity. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies in the medium term [11]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - The report provides multiple charts related to the PVC futures and spot market, including the term structure, spot basis, 1 - 5 spread, and the prices of PVC in the East China SG - 5 market, as well as the trading volume and open interest of active contracts and total contracts, to show the market price and trading situation of PVC [15][19][24][26]. 3. Profit and Inventory - **Profit**: The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali integration has dropped to a historical low, and the valuation pressure has decreased [42]. - **Inventory**: The factory inventory and social inventory of PVC have both increased year - on - month, and the overall inventory is in the accumulation cycle. The warehouse receipts are also rising [11]. The report also provides multiple charts to show the inventory changes of PVC in different production methods and the overall inventory situation [31][32][34][38]. 4. Cost Side - Calcium carbide prices have risen and then fallen, semi - coke prices have stabilized and rebounded, caustic soda prices have declined, and ethylene prices have fallen [49][52]. The report provides multiple charts to show the price and inventory changes of calcium carbide, semi - coke, caustic soda, and ethylene [50][53][56]. 5. Supply Side - In 2025, the PVC capacity will be significantly increased, mainly concentrated in the third quarter. A total of 250 tons of new capacity will be put into production throughout the year [61][66]. Although the average load of PVC decreased in September, the output was difficult to reduce due to the new device production [69]. The report also provides charts to show the historical trend of PVC capacity, the quarterly production capacity of new devices, and the production start - up and weekly output of PVC [62][64][75]. 6. Demand Side - The start - up of the three major downstream industries of PVC has rebounded, but it is still weak in the real estate downturn cycle and difficult to reverse the oversupply situation. The export volume in August increased year - on - year, but the growth rate was weaker than that in the first half of the year, and the export growth rate is expected to decline further after the implementation of the Indian anti - dumping policy [11][78]. The report provides multiple charts to show the start - up of downstream industries, export volume, pre - sale volume, and the situation of the real estate market [78][86][91].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea, Methanol, Pure Benzene, Styrene, Propylene, Plastic, PVC, Caustic Soda, PX, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Glass, Soda Ash, Bottle Chip: Investment ratings are provided with star symbols, where red stars represent a predicted upward trend and green stars represent a predicted downward trend. One star means a bias towards long/short with a driving force for an upward/downward trend but limited operability on the trading floor. Two stars mean holding long/short with a clearer upward/downward trend and the market condition is evolving. Three stars mean an even clearer long/short trend and there are still relatively appropriate investment opportunities. White stars mean the short-term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state and the current trading floor has poor operability, suggesting a wait-and-see approach [1][9] Core Views - The chemical market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sub - sectors. Some products are affected by factors such as supply - demand imbalances, seasonal changes, and raw material price fluctuations [2][3][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene prices continued to rise due to early planned maintenance of a device in Dongying during the National Day holiday and the gradual recovery of some downstream demand. However, the futures price fell on the first trading day after the holiday, resulting in a divergence between the futures and spot markets and an expansion of the basis. - For polyolefins, the peak season demand was weak, with mainly rigid demand procurement. The large - scale release of new production capacity on the supply side led to a significant increase in domestic production this year, resulting in prominent supply - demand contradictions. Production enterprises accumulated inventory during the double festivals, and there was obvious pressure to reduce inventory after the holiday, causing prices to be under pressure [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - During the National Day, the oil price fell. The pure benzene futures price once dropped below 5700 yuan/ton in the morning session and then rebounded following the oil price in the afternoon. The spot price in East China was weak, the shipment in Shandong was dull, and the listed price of Sinopec remained stable. The device operation rate continued to rise, the port inventory decreased, the actual fundamentals were okay, but the basis weakened compared to before the holiday. High import volume and the expectation of future demand decline continued to drag down the market. - The main contract of styrene futures closed slightly lower within the day, and the overall center of gravity moved down along the 5 - day moving average. The oil price first decreased and then increased during the holiday, remaining basically the same as before the holiday, having limited impact on the cost side of styrene. On the supply - demand fundamentals, the peak season demand was weak. Due to the expansion of production capacity, the domestic supply increased significantly. The total inventory of styrene has been significantly higher year - on - year since this year, showing a trend of oscillatory inventory accumulation after June. The supply - side pressure was large, suppressing the styrene price, and the styrene market was in a bearish pattern [3] Polyester - The overseas oil price fell during the holiday. The prices of PX and PTA weakened in the morning session and then rebounded in the afternoon due to the oil price recovery. The operation rate of PX continued to increase. Hengli Dalian's PTA carried out maintenance, and the East China device reduced its load due to an accident. In the short term, PX was expected to be under pressure, and the PTA segment repaired its profit. However, the PX of Wushi Petrochemical was planned for maintenance, and the polyester load was expected to be maintained. The short - term supply - demand pattern of upstream raw materials was okay. Attention should be paid to terminal orders and raw material restocking. In mid - to late October, the downstream demand was expected to gradually weaken, and the supply - demand situation would still be under pressure in the long run. - The domestic operation rate of ethylene glycol increased significantly, and the port inventory accumulated significantly during the holiday. The fundamentals were weak, and the main futures price once approached the 4100 yuan/ton mark within the day. In the medium term, with the mass production of new devices and the weakening of future demand, the supply - demand situation would gradually weaken in the fourth quarter. Under the expectation of inventory accumulation, the 1 - 5 spread was under pressure to decline. - The new production capacity of short fiber was limited, and the operation rate was at a high level. The terminal weaving and dyeing industries increased their operation rates. The recovery of peak - season demand boosted the short - fiber industry. It was recommended to continue to be long in the short term. Attention should be paid to downstream orders and short - fiber inventory. The operation rate of bottle chips increased, but after the long holiday, as the weather turned cooler, the demand was expected to weaken. Overcapacity was a long - term pressure, and the processing margin was continuously under pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - The methanol futures price dropped significantly. During the holiday, the import volume remained high, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. The capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol devices increased. Before the holiday, inland olefin enterprises made large - scale external purchases, and enterprises had sufficient orders to be delivered, but the order execution was slowed down due to logistics restrictions, and the inventory of production enterprises increased slightly. The import was expected to remain sufficient, the port was expected to continue to accumulate inventory, and the short - term weakness would continue. The long - term outlook was relatively positive. Attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and changes in overseas devices. - During the National Day holiday, urea production enterprises significantly accumulated inventory, the supply remained high, and enterprises faced great pressure to sell. Affected by weather and logistics factors, the downstream demand was insufficient. Export orders were being shipped, and the port inventory decreased. Although India issued a new round of urea tenders, planning to import 2 million tons, the export window period might have ended, so the short - term boost to the market was limited. The domestic supply - demand situation of urea remained loose. Attention should be paid to possible policy adjustments and their impact on market sentiment [6] Chlor - alkali Industry - The main contract of PVC dropped. During the holiday, the downstream demand weakened, the supply was at a high level, and the inventory increased significantly. After the end of maintenance and the release of new production capacity, the supply pressure was high. The downstream's intention to stock up was low, and the industry continued the inventory - accumulation pattern. The integrated chlor - alkali enterprises still had profits, but the cost support was not obvious. In a weak real - situation pattern, PVC might show a weak - oscillatory trend. - The caustic soda futures price dropped significantly. There were still vehicle - waiting phenomena among downstream buyers, and the purchase price might be further reduced. The inventory increased compared to the previous period. There were maintenance plans for caustic soda in North and East China in October, but the scale was small. Since there were still profits, the supply was still operating at a high level. The liquid caustic soda inventory of alumina plants in Shanxi and Henan was high, and the downstream profit margin shrank. They were resistant to high - priced products. The weak real - situation pattern continued, but there might be restocking demand before the future downstream alumina production. Since the strong - expectation could not be falsified, it was recommended to wait and see [7] Soda Ash - Glass - The soda ash futures price was in a weak state. The inventory decreased before the holiday and increased after the holiday. The rigid demand for heavy soda was stable. The production capacity of float glass and photovoltaic glass has been stable recently. The inventory of the photovoltaic industry increased after a decrease. It was expected that the ignition speed would slow down in the future, and the incremental rigid demand for heavy soda was limited. There were few maintenance plans in October, the industry's current operating pressure was not large, and the supply would operate at a high level. The long - term supply - demand surplus situation remained unchanged. Opportunities to short at high prices should be sought, but be cautious when approaching the cost level. - The glass futures price fluctuated within a narrow range. During the holiday, downstream enterprises had holidays, and the production and sales were insufficient. The industry seasonally accumulated inventory, and some regions increased their quoted prices. The daily melting volume was oscillating at a relatively high level. The processing orders improved but were still insufficient on a month - on - month basis, and some project orders increased. Whether Shajiahe would intensively use Zhengkang's deep - processed gas should be continuously monitored. If the production - capacity reduction does not actually occur, the market may return to the weak - real - situation trading. However, with the current low valuation, the expected decline range is also limited. In the future, a low - buying strategy near the cost level can be considered [8]

Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the reports. Core Views Copper - Short - term copper prices may rise due to mine - end disturbances, and in the medium - long term, the supply - demand contradiction provides a bottom support. The price center may gradually rise. Pay attention to whether the macro - market style switches to recovery trading and the marginal changes in the demand side. The main contract is supported at 81000 - 81500 [1]. Aluminum - The short - term alumina spot price will remain under pressure, with the main contract oscillating between 2850 - 3150 yuan/ton. The short - term aluminum price will oscillate at a high level after a decline, with the main contract in the range of 20600 - 21000 yuan/ton [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The short - term ADC12 price will maintain a high - level oscillation, with the main contract running in the range of 20200 - 20600 yuan/ton [6]. Zinc - The supply - relaxation logic has spread from the zinc - mine end to the zinc - ingot end. The zinc price will continue to be under pressure, but the impact of interest - rate cuts on the macro - trading logic needs to be noted [10]. Tin - If the supply from Myanmar recovers smoothly, the tin price is expected to weaken; if the supply recovery is poor, the tin price will continue to oscillate at a high level, in the range of 265000 - 285000 [13]. Nickel - The short - term nickel price will maintain an interval oscillation, with the main contract in the range of 120000 - 125000 [15]. Stainless Steel - The short - term stainless - steel price will oscillate and adjust, with the main contract running in the range of 12600 - 13200 [17]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term lithium - carbonate price will oscillate and sort out, with the main - contract price center in the range of 70000 - 75000 yuan/ton [19]. Summary by Directory Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at 82485 yuan/ton, down 0.02% from the previous value. SMM Guangdong 1 electrolytic copper was at 82490 yuan/ton, up 0.13%. SMM wet - process copper was at 82385 yuan/ton, down 0.04% [1]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2510 - 2511 was 0 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous value [1]. Fundamental Data - In August, the electrolytic copper production was 117.15 million tons, down 0.24% month - on - month; the import volume was 26.43 million tons, down 10.99% [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum was at 20770 yuan/ton, up 0.44%. The average price of alumina in Shandong was 2905 yuan/ton, down 0.17% [4]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2510 - 2511 was 10 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous value [4]. Fundamental Data - In August, the alumina production was 773.82 million tons, up 1.15% month - on - month; the electrolytic aluminum production was 373.26 million tons, up 0.30% [4]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 was at 20900 yuan/ton, up 0.24%. The refined - scrap price difference of Foshan crushed primary aluminum was 1460 yuan/ton, down 4.58% [6]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2511 - 2512 was - 55 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton from the previous value [6]. Fundamental Data - In August, the production of recycled aluminum - alloy ingots was 61.50 million tons, down 1.60% month - on - month; the production of primary aluminum - alloy ingots was 27.10 million tons, up 1.88% [6]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot was at 21950 yuan/ton, up 0.37%. The import profit and loss was - 3556 yuan/ton, up 7.35 yuan/ton from the previous value [10]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2510 - 2511 was - 30 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the previous value [10]. Fundamental Data - In August, the refined zinc production was 62.62 million tons, up 3.88% month - on - month; the import volume was 2.57 million tons, up 43.30% [10]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin was at 273700 yuan/ton, up 0.85%. The LME 0 - 3 premium was - 105 dollars/ton, down 7.14% [13]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2510 - 2511 was - 470 yuan/ton, down 20.51% from the previous value [13]. Fundamental Data - In July, the tin - ore import was 10278 tons, down 13.71% from the previous value; the SMM refined - tin production was 15940 tons, up 15.42% [13]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel was at 122450 yuan/ton, down 1.29%. The 8 - 12% high - nickel pig - iron price was 855 yuan/ton, unchanged [15]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2511 - 2512 was - 220 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous value [15]. Supply - Demand and Inventory - The domestic refined - nickel production was 32200 tons, up 1.26% month - on - month; the import volume was 17536 tons, down 8.46% [15]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) was at 13100 yuan/ton, down 0.38%. The Philippine laterite nickel ore 1.5% (CIF) average price was 51 dollars/wet ton, unchanged [17]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2511 - 2512 was - 40 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous value [17]. Fundamental Data - The production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China was 171.33 million tons, down 3.83% month - on - month; the import volume was 11.72 million tons, up 60.48% [17]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price was 73600 yuan/ton, down 0.20%. The lithium - spodumene concentrate CIF average price was 857 dollars/ton, up 0.12% [19]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2510 - 2511 was - 200 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous value [19]. Fundamental Data - In August, the lithium - carbonate production was 85240 tons, up 4.55% month - on - month; the demand was 104023 tons, up 8.25% [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Nickel prices have basically returned to the fundamental logic, with high inventories and an unchanged pattern of oversupply. It is expected that nickel prices will remain in a low - level oscillation. For stainless steel, the eleven - week consecutive decline in inventory has ended, and accumulation has begun. The peak season is lackluster, and downstream demand has not improved significantly. With weakening cost support at the raw material end, stainless steel prices are expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend [4][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis of Nickel - **Price**: This week, the price of the main Shanghai nickel futures contract showed a weak oscillating pattern, closing at 121,380 yuan/ton, a slight drop of 120 yuan/ton from the opening price on Monday. The weekly price fluctuation range was 120,670 - 123,550 yuan/ton, with an amplitude of 2.39%. LME nickel prices slightly declined to 15,210 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.43%. In the spot market, the latest offer of Jinchuan nickel's premium over the SHFE 2510 contract remained unchanged from last week, while the real - time converted premium in the Shanghai area decreased by 300 yuan/ton compared to last week [1]. - **Macro**: At the beginning of the week, cautious remarks from Fed officials on the prospect of interest rate cuts strengthened the US dollar, and the unchanged LPR in China reduced market risk appetite. Subsequently, the central bank's liquidity injection and the increasing expectation of Fed rate cuts warmed up the sentiment in the base metals sector, but the strong US economic data caused a rebound in the US dollar and a retreat of funds [2]. - **Supply**: In the nickel ore market, Philippine mine quotes remained firm, and the new typhoon "Boloiyu" was expected to affect local mine shipments. In Indonesia, although the supply of nickel ore was loose, there were frequent disturbances. In terms of refined nickel, China's refined nickel output in August 2025 was 36,695 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.50% and a year - on - year increase of 29.62% [2]. - **Consumption**: In August 2025, China's apparent consumption of refined nickel was 37,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.66% and a year - on - year increase of 81.16%. However, the overall increase in consumption was less than that on the supply side [3]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost and profit of different production methods of electrowon nickel varied. For example, the cost of integrated MHP production of electrowon nickel was 117,171 yuan/ton, with a profit of 3.20%, while the cost of externally purchased nickel sulfate production of electrowon nickel was 136,583 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 11.20% [3]. - **Inventory**: This week, SHFE nickel inventory decreased by 504 tons to 29,008 tons, LME nickel inventory decreased by 204 tons to 230,124 tons, and China's (including bonded areas) refined nickel inventory decreased by 1,371 tons to 40,440 tons [3]. Strategy for Nickel - Unilateral: None - Inter - delivery spread: None - Cross - variety: None - Futures - cash: Adopt the idea of selling hedging on rallies in the medium - to - long - term - Options: None [4] Market Analysis of Stainless Steel - **Price**: This week, the main stainless steel futures contract showed a weak oscillating pattern, closing at 12,840 yuan/ton, a rise of 65 yuan/ton from last week. The spot procurement sentiment was frustrated, and the pre - holiday procurement demand did not appear as expected [4]. - **Macro**: The central bank's liquidity injection boosted market risk appetite, but the Fed's internal differences after the rate cut and the approaching National Day holiday led to a decline in market trading activity [5]. - **Supply**: In August 2025, the output of stainless steel increased month - on - month. The output of the 200 - series increased by 8.97% month - on - month, the 300 - series increased by 2.44% month - on - month, and the 400 - series decreased by 0.5% month - on - month [5]. - **Consumption**: The traditional peak consumption season effect did not appear. Downstream terminals were cautious in purchasing. Although real - estate sales increased year - on - year, new construction areas decreased year - on - year, and the demand in the automotive retail sector declined [5]. - **Cost and Profit**: This week, the price of high - nickel ferro - nickel ended its continuous rise since July and slightly declined, while the price of high - carbon ferro - chrome slightly increased but lacked further upward momentum [6]. - **Inventory**: On September 26, the total social inventory of stainless steel in the mainstream markets across the country increased week - on - week, ending the eleven - week consecutive decline [6]. Strategy for Stainless Steel - Unilateral: None - Inter - delivery spread: None - Cross - variety: None - Futures - cash: None - Options: None [7]