1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Polyester Industry - **PX**: Short - term expected to be volatile and weak. PX11 to be treated as oscillating between 6600 - 6900 [2]. - **PTA**: Short - term to oscillate between 4600 - 4800; TA1 - 5 to be rolled in reverse arbitrage. Mid - term supply - demand is weak [2]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: 9 - month outlook is positive, but Q4 is expected to enter a stockpiling phase. EG to be observed unilaterally; EG1 - 5 for reverse arbitrage [2]. - **Short - fiber**: Low - level support exists, but rebound drive is weak. Unilateral strategy same as PTA; processing fees to oscillate between 800 - 1100 [2]. - **Bottle - chip**: PR to follow cost, with limited upside for processing fees. Unilateral strategy same as PTA; main - contract processing fees to fluctuate between 350 - 500 yuan/ton [2]. Urea Industry - Urea futures are weakly operating. Supply is rising while demand lacks growth. Policy intervention on coal prices cannot reverse the surplus. Short - term, the futures are expected to be weak [8]. Chlor - alkali Industry - **Caustic Soda**: After a rebound, it is re - adjusting. Supply may decline due to maintenance. Demand from the alumina industry is stable, but overall, it may continue to be weak in the short - term. Spot prices may stabilize [11]. - **PVC**: After a rebound, it is re - adjusting. Supply may decrease due to maintenance, and demand is slightly improving. Cost support is at the bottom. It can be short - sold at high levels [11]. Methanol Industry - Supply is at a high level, and inventory is relatively healthy. Demand is weak due to the off - season. Valuation is neutral. The market is wavering between high inventory and overseas gas - restriction expectations. Follow - up focus on inventory inflection points [55]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Pure Benzene**: Supply may be higher than expected, and demand is weak. Short - term price is affected by geopolitics and macro factors. BZ2603 to follow styrene oscillations [60]. - **Styrene**: Supply is relatively sufficient, and demand support is average. Port inventory is declining, but still restricts price increases. EB10 to be bought at low levels, and the spread between EB11 - BZ11 to be widened at low levels [60]. Crude Oil Industry - Oil prices are oscillating. The refined oil market provides support, but macro - economic concerns limit the upside. Short - term, prices are expected to oscillate within a range. Unilateral observation is recommended [63]. Polyolefin Industry - **LLDPE and PP**: PP has more unplanned maintenance and inventory decline, with a weak basis. PE has more maintenance, a rising basis, and inventory reduction. Demand orders are poor. Focus on pre - holiday restocking [68]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Polyester Industry - **Upstream Prices**: Brent crude (November) decreased by 0.8% to 67.44 dollars/barrel; CFR Japan naphtha decreased by 1.6% [2]. - **Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: POY150/48 price decreased by 0.4% to 6680 yuan/ton; DTY150/48 price remained unchanged at 7960 yuan/ton [2]. - **PX - related**: CFR China PX decreased; PX - crude decreased by 1% to 397 dollars/ton [2]. - **PTA - related**: PTA East China spot price increased by 0.2% to 4630 yuan/ton; TA futures 2601 decreased by 1% to 4712 yuan/ton [2]. - **MEG - related**: MEG port inventory decreased by 460,000 tons to 9.4 million tons; EG futures 2601 decreased by 0.7% to 4297 yuan/ton [2]. Urea Industry - **Futures Prices**: Urea 01 contract decreased by 0.65% to 1670 yuan/ton; methanol main - contract decreased by 1.26% to 2346 yuan/ton [7]. - **Spot Prices**: Shandong (small - particle) decreased by 0.61% to 1640 yuan/ton; FOB China: small - particle remained unchanged at 424 dollars/ton [8]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea daily output increased by 1.82% to 195,600 tons; enterprise inventory increased by 2.88% to 1.1653 million tons [8]. Chlor - alkali Industry - **PVC and Caustic Soda Spot and Futures**: Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda decreased by 2.4% to 2500 yuan/ton; V2509 decreased by 0.7% to 5347 yuan/ton [11]. - **Caustic Soda Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: FOB East China port increased by 1.3% to 395 dollars/ton; export profit increased by 120.2% to 5.8 yuan/ton [11]. - **PVC Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: CFR Southeast Asia decreased by 3% to 650 dollars/ton; export profit decreased by 77.2% to 13.5 yuan/ton [11]. - **Supply and Demand**: PVC total operating rate increased by 4.2% to 79.4%; alumina industry operating rate increased by 1.5% to 82.8% [11]. Methanol Industry - **Futures and Spot Prices**: MA2601 decreased by 1.26% to 2346 yuan/ton; Inner Mongolia north - line spot decreased by 0.95% to 2090 yuan/ton [55]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 0.61% to 34.048%; methanol port inventory increased by 0.48% to 1.558 million tons [55]. - **Operating Rates**: Upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased by 0.12% to 72.66%; downstream MTO device operating rate increased by 8.72% to 75.08% [55]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Upstream Prices**: CFR China pure benzene decreased by 0.5% to 738 dollars/ton; pure benzene - naphtha decreased by 4.5% to 130 dollars/ton [60]. - **Styrene - related Prices**: Styrene East China spot decreased by 1.1% to 7100 yuan/ton; EB futures 2510 decreased by 1.1% to 7062 yuan/ton [60]. - **Inventory**: Pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 6.9% to 134,000 tons; styrene Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 9.9% to 159,000 tons [60]. - **Operating Rates**: Asian pure benzene operating rate increased by 1.4% to 79.096%; domestic styrene operating rate decreased by 5.9% to 75% [60]. Crude Oil Industry - **Crude Oil Prices and Spreads**: Brent decreased by 0.75% to 67.44 dollars/barrel; SC decreased by 1.27% to 490 yuan/barrel [63]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: NYM RBOB increased by 0.13% to 201.4 cents/gallon; ICE Gasoil decreased by 0.39% to 702.5 dollars/ton [63]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: European gasoline decreased by 2.44% to 19.03 dollars/barrel; US diesel decreased by 2.48% to 34.45 dollars/barrel [63]. Polyolefin Industry - **Futures Prices**: L2601 decreased by 0.79% to 7188 yuan/ton; PP2601 decreased by 0.8% to 6926 yuan/ton [68]. - **Spot Prices**: East China PP raffia decreased by 0.59% to 6760 yuan/ton; North China LDPE film decreased by 0.56% to 7120 yuan/ton [68]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory increased by 5.57% to 451,000 tons; PP enterprise inventory increased by 8.06% to 582,000 tons [68]. - **Operating Rates**: PE device operating rate increased by 2.97% to 80.4%; PP device operating rate decreased by 2.5% to 74.9% [68].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Polyolefin Industry - The market is in a state of "supply reduction and demand increase" with no obvious core contradictions. For PP, due to strong propylene and propane prices, PDH and external propylene procurement profits are suppressed, leading to more unplanned maintenance and inventory decline, but the basis is still weak due to new device commissioning. For PE, current maintenance remains at a relatively high level, resulting in low short - term supply pressure, rising basis, and inventory depletion. However, attention should be paid to the supply rhythm as maintenance volume may gradually decrease from mid - September. Current new orders for demand are poor, and attention should be paid to downstream replenishment before the Double Festival [2]. Crude Oil Industry - Overnight oil prices rose. The main trading logic is the market's concern about the interruption of refined oil and crude oil supply from Russia due to the escalation of geopolitical conflicts. The market's expectation of tight diesel supply has heated up, which may drive the crack spread to strengthen. At the macro level, the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates soon, and the weakening of the US dollar also provides additional upward momentum for oil prices. The current market trading focus has shifted from the easing expectation to the spot supply risk dominated by geopolitical factors, and the futures price is likely to run along the upper edge of the shock range in the short term. It is recommended to mainly wait and see on the single - side, with the upper pressure of WTI at [65, 66], Brent at [68, 69], and SC at [500, 510]. Wait for opportunities to expand the spread on the option side [4]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - For caustic soda, the futures price has stabilized and rebounded. From the supply side, there are maintenance plans in the northwest and northeast this week, and the operating rate is expected to decline. From the demand side, the main alumina enterprises have good receiving, but the alumina itself is in an oversupply pattern, and the price has shown a downward trend recently, and most alumina plants have sufficient raw material inventory days. The non - aluminum end demand has improved in the peak season, but the support for the caustic soda price is limited. Overall, the Shandong region has significantly accumulated inventory, but the main buyers have good willingness to receive, and the spot price may tend to be stable. Therefore, the downward space of the futures price may be limited. For PVC, the futures price has shown signs of stabilizing and stopping falling. On the supply side, there are many maintenance enterprises this week, and the output is expected to decline. On the demand side, the operating rate of downstream products has increased slightly, and some enterprises are preparing inventory for the National Day. The overall supply - demand pattern shows a marginal improvement trend. The supply tension of raw material calcium carbide has gradually eased, and the price has a narrow downward trend, while the ethylene price is weakly stable, and the cost side maintains bottom support [9]. Polyester Industry Chain - For p - xylene (PX), as domestic and foreign PX maintenance devices resume operation and short - process benefits are good, PX supply gradually increases to a relatively high level. Although the "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" expectation still exists, the polyester and terminal loads are slowly recovering, providing some short - term support for demand. However, the expectation for new orders and load peaks in the future is limited. The PX supply - demand is expected to be relatively loose in September, but the medium - term supply - demand is expected to be tight, and the price has support at the low level. This week, the PX price has shifted to November and December. Under the scenario of downstream demand transfer in the fourth quarter, the positive support for PX is limited. It is expected that PX will fluctuate strongly with the oil price in the short term, but the rebound space is limited. For PTA, the PTA supply - demand is expected to be tight in September as device maintenance is still concentrated. However, due to the good liquidity in the spot market and the sales of some mainstream suppliers, the overall spot basis is weak. The demand side has some support, but the basis and processing fee repair drive are limited under the weak medium - term supply - demand expectation, and the absolute price follows the raw material fluctuation. For ethylene glycol, the supply pattern is strong in the near term and weak in the long term. The import expectation is not high in September, and as it enters the peak demand season, the polyester load increases, and the rigid demand support improves, resulting in low port inventory and a strong basis. However, the supply - demand is expected to be weak in the fourth quarter due to new device commissioning and device restart, and ethylene glycol will enter the inventory accumulation channel, with the price under pressure. For short - fiber, the short - term supply - demand pattern is weak. The supply continues to increase, and although there is still the "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" expectation, new order follow - up is insufficient, and the peak season this year is not expected to be very prosperous. Currently, short - fiber factory inventory is low, and it has relatively strong support compared to raw materials. Overall, it mainly follows the raw material fluctuation. For bottle - grade polyester chips, in September, device restart and shutdown coexist, and supply increases slightly. Considering the decline in soft drink and catering demand as the weather turns cooler, demand may decline, and inventory is expected to increase slowly. The price mainly follows the cost side, and the processing fee has limited upward space [13]. Methanol Industry - In terms of supply and demand, the inland supply is at a high level year - on - year. Although unplanned maintenance has increased recently, some devices are expected to resume production in mid - September. With continuous external procurement by some olefin plants in the inland and unexpected maintenance, the inventory pattern is relatively healthy, which supports the price. The demand side is weak due to the off - season of traditional downstream industries. Some previously shut - down MTO plants at the port restarted last week, slightly relieving the port inventory pressure. In terms of valuation, the upstream profit is neutral, the MTO profit is marginally weakening, and the traditional downstream profit is still weak, with the overall valuation being neutral. The port is continuously accumulating a large amount of inventory, and the import volume remains high in September. The futures price fluctuates between trading the current high inventory and weak basis and the expectation of overseas gas restrictions in the future. Attention should be paid to the inventory inflection point [19]. Urea Industry - The futures price of urea has rebounded, mainly due to short - covering driving the improvement of low - end spot transactions, rather than the substantial improvement of supply and demand. Device restart has brought the daily output back above 190,000 tons, and there will be further increments in the future, so the supply pressure continues to accumulate. On the demand side, it is the off - season for agriculture, the industrial demand is rigid, and the export is marginally weakening. The fundamentals do not provide continuous upward momentum. This rebound is more of a result of capital game and sentiment repair, and the upward height is limited by the dual pressures of supply expansion and export profit contraction. Attention should be paid to the restart and maintenance implementation rhythm of devices such as Henan Xinlianxin and Shanxi Tianze [25]. Benzene - Styrene Industry - For pure benzene, due to the unplanned maintenance of a reforming device in East China, the supply in September is lower than expected. On the demand side, most downstream products are in a loss state, and some products' secondary downstream inventories are high. In addition, the maintenance plan of downstream styrene devices increases from September to October, so the demand - side support weakens. The supply - demand of pure benzene in September is still expected to be relatively loose, and the price driving force is weak. However, in the short term, with the strong oil price and the improvement of the domestic commodity macro - atmosphere, the price center of pure benzene is expected to be supported. For styrene, the overall operating rate of downstream 3S has declined. Some styrene devices are under planned maintenance, and some have reduced their loads due to accidents, resulting in a continuous decline in the high - level port inventory. With the short - term strong oil price, the driving force of styrene is expected to strengthen, but the rebound space is still limited by the high port inventory [30]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Polyolefin Industry - **Price Changes**: The closing prices of L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 all increased, with increases of 0.88%, 3.11%, 0.77%, and 2.65% respectively. The prices of spot products such as East China PP raffia and North China LDPE film also increased slightly [2]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: PE device operating rate decreased by 3.11% to 78.0%, while PE downstream weighted operating rate increased by 2.70% to 42.2%. PP enterprise inventory and trader inventory increased by 8.06% and 14.74% respectively. PP device operating rate decreased by 3.9% to 76.8%, while PP powder operating rate increased by 4.1% to 37.5% [2]. Crude Oil Industry - **Price Changes**: Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil prices all increased, with increases of 0.67%, 0.03%, and 0.82% respectively. The prices of refined oil products such as NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil also showed different degrees of increase [4]. - **Market Logic**: The overnight oil price increase was mainly due to geopolitical conflicts, including Ukraine's increased attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, which threatened the output of refined oil and the export capacity of crude oil. The market's expectation of tight diesel supply heated up, and the US pressured its allies to stop buying Russian oil, further amplifying the supply - side risk premium. At the macro level, the expected Fed interest rate cut and the weakening US dollar provided upward momentum for oil prices [4]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Price Changes**: The prices of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda and SH2509 decreased, while the prices of East China calcium carbide - based PVC and V2509 increased significantly, with increases of 1.3% and 13.2% respectively [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: For caustic soda, the operating rate is expected to decline due to maintenance, and the demand from the alumina industry is good but the price is falling. For PVC, the supply is expected to decrease due to more maintenance enterprises, and the demand from downstream products has increased slightly [9]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Price Changes**: The prices of upstream products such as Brent crude oil and CFR China PX increased, while the prices of some downstream polyester products such as POY150/48 and FDY150/96 decreased [13]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of most products in the polyester industry chain changed slightly. For example, the PTA operating rate increased by 4.0% to 76.8%, and the MEG comprehensive operating rate increased by 2.0% to 74.9% [13]. Methanol Industry - **Price Changes**: The closing prices of MA2601 and MA2509 increased, with increases of 0.71% and 6.59% respectively. The basis and spread also changed significantly [17]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Methanol port inventory increased by 8.59% to 155.0 tons. The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased by 1.97% to 72.75%, and the downstream external MTO device operating rate decreased by 12.37% to 69.06% [17][18][19]. Urea Industry - **Price Changes**: The futures prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts all increased, with increases of 1.20%, 0.76%, and 11.46% respectively [24]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily output of urea has returned above 190,000 tons due to device restart, and there will be further increments. The demand side is in the off - season for agriculture, with rigid industrial demand and marginal weakening export [25]. Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Price Changes**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene in the spot and futures markets all increased slightly [30]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The inventories of pure benzene and styrene in Jiangsu ports decreased, with decreases of 6.9% and 9.9% respectively. The operating rates of some products in the industry chain, such as Asian pure benzene and styrene, decreased [30].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - For silicon manganese, the supply - demand contradiction is yet to accumulate, the cost side strongly supports the price, but new warehouse receipts in the short term will suppress the upward price limit. It is recommended to participate mainly through short - term long positions, with the main contract reference range being [5750, 6000] [4][5] - For silicon iron, the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, the warehouse receipts are on a high - level downward trend but still high in absolute value, suppressing the upward price limit. It is expected to move within a range following coal prices in the short term, and it is recommended to participate mainly through short - term long positions, with the main contract reference range being [5550, 5700] [49] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Silicon Manganese Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: The weekly output has returned to the pre - parade level, and the operating rate has increased by 0.93%. Northern production areas are relatively stable, while some factories in southern Guangxi and Guizhou have resumed production. Yunnan's operating rate has remained at around 95% for three consecutive weeks, and the daily output is at the highest level in the same period of the past five years. As of September 12, the national silicon manganese output was 214,130 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,295 tons; the operating rate was 47.38%, a week - on - week increase of 0.93% [4][8] - Demand: The molten iron output has returned to the pre - parade level, but the rebar output has decreased week - on - week, dragging down the demand for silicon manganese. As of September 12, the weekly demand for silicon manganese was 122,314 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,354 tons. The new round of steel procurement has started, and the first - round inquiry price of a landmark steel mill is 5,800 yuan/ton [4][13] Inventory Situation - The total enterprise inventory is 166,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6,300 tons; the number of warehouse receipts is 61,400, a decrease of 1,400 from last Friday. As of September 12, the total valid forecasts are 2,994, an increase of 1,995 from the previous day. The total delivery inventory (including forecasts) is 322,200 tons, and the inventory has stopped decreasing and started to increase [4] Cost and Profit - Manganese ore prices at ports have rebounded slightly this week. The total shipment volume of the three major countries is 949,300 tons, basically the same as the previous period. The arrival volume is 359,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 231,900 tons, with the reduction mainly from South Africa. The electricity price in Ningxia has increased by 0.02 yuan/kWh, and the current comprehensive electricity price of manufacturers is 0.4 yuan/kWh, while the electricity prices in other production areas remain stable [4] Market Price - As of September 12, the market price of 6517 in Inner Mongolia is 5,650 (- 30) yuan/ton; in Ningxia, it is 5,600 (+ 50) yuan/ton; in Guangxi, it is 5,650 (- 30) yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it is 5,850 (+ 100) yuan/ton [7] River Steel Silicon Manganese Tendering - The inquiry price for September silicon manganese tendering by River Steel is 5,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 400 yuan/ton compared to August. The procurement quantity is 17,000 tons, an increase of 900 tons compared to August and 6,500 tons compared to the same period last year [16] Silicon Iron Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: This week, the national output and operating rate of silicon iron have decreased week - on - week. Inner Mongolia and Ningxia have stable operations, while Shaanxi has slightly reduced production. As of September 12, the weekly output of silicon iron is 113,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 20,000 tons; the operating rate is 34.84%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.5% [49][54] - Demand: This week, the demand for silicon iron converted from the five major steel products is 19,737 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 339 tons. The new round of steel procurement has started, and the inquiry price for September silicon iron tendering by a landmark steel mill is 5,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 330 yuan/ton compared to August. The procurement quantity has increased by 317 tons compared to August. In terms of non - steel demand, the magnesium ingot output in August is basically the same as that in July, with a year - on - year decrease of 3.9% [49] Inventory Situation - The total enterprise inventory is 69,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3,400 tons; the number of warehouse receipts is 16,500, a decrease of 1,800 from last Friday. The total delivery inventory (including forecasts) is 85,300 tons, a decrease of 12,200 tons from last Friday [49] Cost and Profit - Recently, the semi - coke market has been stable. The current small - material quotation in Fugu area is 640 - 690 yuan/ton. The electricity prices in Ningxia and Qinghai have both increased. In the short term, the cost side of silicon iron has strong support [49] Market Price - The spot prices in the main production areas have increased by 30 - 50 yuan/ton compared to last week [52] River Steel Silicon Iron Tendering - The inquiry price for September silicon iron tendering by River Steel is 5,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 330 yuan/ton compared to August. The procurement quantity is 3,151 tons, an increase of 317 tons compared to August and 650 tons compared to the same period last year [60]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply - demand situation is complex. The supply is stable, but demand is weak. The cost support is weakening in the flood season, and the market is expected to oscillate in the range of 8605 - 8875 [6][8]. - For polysilicon, the short - term supply schedule is decreasing, while the demand shows a continuous recovery trend. The cost support is stable, and the market is expected to oscillate in the range of 52660 - 54760 [10]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Views Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: Last week, the supply was 90,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [6]. - **Demand**: Last week, the demand was 81,000 tons, a 1.21% decrease from the previous week. The demand in the downstream sectors such as polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy is in different states [6]. - **Cost**: The production of sample oxygen - passed 553 in Xinjiang is at a loss of 3322 yuan/ton, and the cost support is weakening in the flood season [6]. - **Other factors**: On September 11, the basis of the 11 - contract was 260 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price. The social inventory decreased by 0.73%, and the sample enterprise inventory decreased by 1.55%. The main port inventory decreased by 1.68%. The MA20 is upward, and the 11 - contract futures price closed above the MA20. The net position of the main players is short, and the short position is decreasing [6][8]. Polysilicon - **Supply**: Last week, the production was 31,200 tons, a 3.31% increase from the previous week. The production schedule for September is expected to be 126,700 tons, a 3.79% decrease from the previous month [10]. - **Demand**: The production of silicon wafers last week was 13.88GW, a 0.72% increase from the previous week, and the inventory decreased by 1.78%. The production of battery cells and components is increasing, and the overall demand is recovering [10]. - **Cost**: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 35,620 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 14,430 yuan/ton [10]. - **Other factors**: On September 11, the basis of the 11 - contract was - 2160 yuan/ton, with the spot price lower than the futures price. The weekly inventory increased by 3.79% and is at a low level compared to the same period in history. The MA20 is upward, and the 11 - contract futures price closed above the MA20. The net position of the main players is long, and the long position is decreasing [10]. 3.2 Market Overview Industrial Silicon - Futures prices of different contracts showed varying degrees of increase. For example, the 01 - contract increased by 0.94% [17]. - Spot prices of different grades of industrial silicon also showed increases, such as the price of East China non - oxygen - passed 553 silicon increased by 0.56% [17]. - Inventory data of different types, including social inventory, sample enterprise inventory, and main port inventory, showed a decreasing trend [17]. Polysilicon - Futures prices of different contracts increased. For example, the 01 - contract increased by 1.54% [19]. - Prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components were relatively stable, with small changes in some indicators [19]. - The export volume of battery cells and components increased, and the inventory of some products decreased [19]. 3.3 Price and Cost Trends - **Industrial Silicon**: The price - basis and delivery product spread trends, as well as the cost trends in sample regions, show fluctuations over time [21][38]. - **Polysilicon**: The market price and cost trends show that the price and cost of polysilicon have different change trends in different periods [64]. 3.4 Supply - Demand Balance - **Industrial Silicon**: The weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables show that the supply - demand relationship is in a state of change, with different levels of balance or imbalance in different periods [41][44]. - **Polysilicon**: The monthly supply - demand balance table shows that the supply and demand are also in a dynamic state, with different balance results in different months [67]. 3.5 Downstream Market Trends Organic Silicon - The DMC price, production, and inventory trends show that the production capacity utilization rate is relatively stable, and the inventory has increased [47][53]. - The prices of downstream products such as 107 glue, silicone oil, and raw rubber are relatively stable [49]. Aluminum Alloy - The price, supply, inventory, and production trends of aluminum alloy show that the inventory is at a high level, and the production and import - export situation is complex [56][59]. - The demand in the automotive and wheel - hub sectors is related to the production and sales of automobiles and the export of wheel - hubs [60]. Polysilicon Downstream - **Silicon Wafers**: The price, production, inventory, and demand trends show that the production is increasing, and the inventory is decreasing [70]. - **Battery Cells**: The price, production, and export trends show that the production is increasing, and the export volume is also increasing [73]. - **Photovoltaic Components**: The price, production, inventory, and export trends show that the production and export are increasing, and the inventory is decreasing [76]. - **Photovoltaic Accessories**: The price, production, and import - export trends of photovoltaic accessories such as photovoltaic coating, photovoltaic film, and photovoltaic glass show different change trends [79]. - **Component Composition Cost - Profit**: The cost - profit trends of different components in 210mm components show different profit situations [81].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of soda ash and float glass are currently at historically low levels, with high risks associated with short - selling. Given strong macro - expectations and the "anti - involution" backdrop, the price centers of soda ash and glass are expected to gradually rise. It is not advisable to chase short positions at low prices. Instead, one can wait for long - entry opportunities when prices break upwards [14][84]. - For soda ash, although production and inventory remain high and demand recovery is slow, increasing exports may support prices. For glass, the improvement in real - estate terminal demand is slow, and high production and inventory levels continue to exert pressure on prices. Attention should be paid to the peak - season data during the "Golden September and Silver October" period [14][84]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Soda Ash Report 3.1.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Price**: As of September 2, 2025, the spot market price of soda ash was 1167 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan/ton from the previous week and 79 yuan/ton from the beginning of the previous month. The futures price of the main contract (SA509) closed at 1267 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan/ton from the previous week but up 11 yuan/ton from the beginning of the previous month. The basis was - 100 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the basis rate was - 7.89%, at a relatively low - neutral level in historical statistics [13][19]. - **Cost - profit**: As of August 29, 2025, the production cost of the ammonia - soda process was 1268 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 0.1 yuan/ton; the production cost of the combined - soda process was 1651 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 20 yuan/ton. As the proportion of the natural - soda process increases, the overall cost support for soda ash may be limited [13][30]. - **Supply**: As of August 29, 2025, the weekly production of soda ash was 71.91 tons, a decrease of 5.23 tons from the previous week. The monthly production in August was 331.87 tons, an increase of 15.45 tons from the previous month. Production is expected to remain high in the short term, pressuring prices [13][44]. - **Demand**: In August, the start - up rate and production of float glass increased, driving short - term soda ash demand. However, the increase in float - glass inventory at the end of August may have a negative feedback effect on soda ash demand. The operating daily capacity of photovoltaic glass increased, and the inventory pressure was low. If the start - up rate and capacity increase in the future, it will drive up soda ash demand [13][58]. - **Inventory**: As of August 29, 2025, the in - factory inventory of soda ash was 186.75 tons, an increase of 7.17 tons from the beginning of the month. The inventory is expected to remain high in the short term, pressuring prices [13][69]. - **Import - export**: In July 2025, soda ash imports were 0.32 tons, exports were 16.12 tons, and net exports were 15.80 tons, an increase of 0.25 tons from the previous month. With the current low prices, export volumes are expected to continue to rise, supporting prices [13][64]. 3.1.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Soda Ash Basis**: As of September 2, 2025, the basis was - 100 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the basis rate was - 7.89%, at a relatively low - neutral level in historical statistics [19]. - **Difference between Dense and Light Soda Ash**: As of September 2, 2025, the price difference between dense and light soda ash in North China was 100 yuan/ton, and in East China was 120 yuan/ton, showing little change and remaining within a reasonable range [22]. - **Soda Ash Inter - monthly Spread**: As of September 2, 2025, the spread between the 1 - 5 contracts of soda ash futures was - 80 yuan/ton. Although the short - term fundamentals are difficult to improve rapidly, there are expectations of price increases in the future [25]. 3.1.3 Profit and Cost - **Soda Ash Cost - profit**: As of August 29, 2025, the production cost of the ammonia - soda process was 1268 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 0.1 yuan/ton; the production cost of the combined - soda process was 1651 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 20 yuan/ton. As the proportion of the natural - soda process increases, the overall cost support for soda ash may be limited [30][33]. - **Raw Material Costs**: As of September 2, 2025, the price of raw salt in Northwest China remained unchanged from the previous week, and the price of动力煤 changed little, with a slight decline in some areas. The price of synthetic ammonia changed little from the previous week and remained at a relatively low level year - on - year. These factors have little impact on soda ash prices [36][39]. 3.1.4 Supply and Demand - **Total Production**: As of August 29, 2025, the weekly production of soda ash was 71.91 tons, a decrease of 5.23 tons from the previous week. The monthly production in August was 331.87 tons, an increase of 15.45 tons from the previous month. Production is expected to remain high in the short term, pressuring prices [44]. - **Production of Dense and Light Soda Ash**: As of August 29, 2025, the production of dense soda ash was 38.32 tons, a decrease of 4.2 tons from the previous week, and the production of light soda ash was 33.59 tons, a decrease of 1.03 tons from the previous week. With fewer maintenance plans in September, production is expected to remain high [47]. - **Soda Ash Start - up Rate**: The start - up rate of soda ash in August first increased and then decreased. With fewer planned maintenance enterprises in September, the start - up rate is expected to remain at the current level [50]. - **Soda Ash Demand**: The increase in float - glass production drove short - term soda ash demand, but the increase in float - glass inventory may have a negative impact. The operating daily capacity of photovoltaic glass increased, and if the start - up rate and capacity increase in the future, it will drive up soda ash demand [58][61]. - **Soda Ash Import - export**: In July 2025, soda ash imports were 0.32 tons, exports were 16.12 tons, and net exports were 15.80 tons, an increase of 0.25 tons from the previous month. With the current low prices, export volumes are expected to continue to rise, supporting prices [64]. 3.1.5 Inventory - As of August 29, 2025, the in - factory inventory of soda ash was 186.75 tons, an increase of 7.17 tons from the beginning of the month. The inventory is expected to remain high in the short term, pressuring prices [69]. 3.2 Glass Report 3.2.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Price**: As of September 2, 2025, the spot market price of float glass was 1130 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton from the previous week and 115 yuan/ton from the beginning of the previous month. The futures price of the main contract (SA509) closed at 1134 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan/ton from the previous week but up 33 yuan/ton from the beginning of the previous month. The basis was - 4 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the basis rate was + 2.73%, at a neutral level in historical statistics [83][89]. - **Cost - profit**: As of August 29, 2025, the production costs of float glass using coal, petroleum coke, and natural gas as fuels were 995 yuan/ton, 1039 yuan/ton, and 1398 yuan/ton respectively, and the profits were 109.46 yuan/ton, 25.66 yuan/ton, and - 188.41 yuan/ton respectively, providing some support for glass - futures prices [83][97]. - **Supply**: As of August 29, 2025, the weekly production of float glass was 111.70 tons, an increase of 0.18 tons from the beginning of the month. The start - up rate was 75.49%, an increase of 0.49 percentage points from the beginning of the month. With some production lines planning to start up next month, production is expected to remain at a relatively high level in the short term [83][108]. - **Demand**: As of August 29, 2025, the start - up rate of Low - e glass was 48.10%, an increase of 4.8 percentage points from the beginning of the month. As of September 1, 2025, the downstream deep - processing orders of float glass were 10.4 days, an increase of 0.85 days from the beginning of the previous month, indicating a slight recovery in demand. However, the improvement in real - estate terminal demand was slow, dragging down glass prices in the short term. Attention should be paid to the peak - season data during the "Golden September and Silver October" period [83][113]. - **Inventory**: As of August 29, 2025, the in - factory inventory of float glass in China was 6256.6 million weight - cases, an increase of 306.7 million weight - cases from the beginning of the month. The inventory in the Shahe area also increased. With high production levels, inventory is expected to continue to pressure prices [83][126]. 3.2.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Glass Basis**: As of September 2, 2025, the basis was - 4 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the basis rate was + 2.73%, at a neutral level in historical statistics [89]. - **Glass Inter - monthly Spread**: As of September 2, 2025, the spread between the 1 - 5 contracts of glass futures was - 99 yuan/ton. Although the short - term fundamentals are difficult to improve rapidly, there are expectations of price increases in the future [92]. 3.2.3 Profit and Cost - As of August 29, 2025, the production costs of float glass using coal, petroleum coke, and natural gas as fuels were 995 yuan/ton, 1039 yuan/ton, and 1398 yuan/ton respectively, and the profits were 109.46 yuan/ton, 25.66 yuan/ton, and - 188.41 yuan/ton respectively, providing some support for glass - futures prices [97]. 3.2.4 Supply and Demand - **Glass Production and Start - up Rate**: As of August 29, 2025, the weekly production of float glass was 111.70 tons, an increase of 0.18 tons from the beginning of the month. The start - up rate was 75.49%, an increase of 0.49 percentage points from the beginning of the month. With some production lines planning to start up next month, production is expected to remain at a relatively high level in the short term [108]. - **Glass Demand**: The downstream deep - processing orders of float glass increased slightly, indicating a slight recovery in demand. However, the improvement in real - estate terminal demand was slow, dragging down glass prices in the short term. The real - estate transaction volume improved slightly but remained relatively low compared to historical levels [113][119]. 3.2.5 Inventory - As of August 29, 2025, the in - factory inventory of float glass in China was 6256.6 million weight - cases, an increase of 306.7 million weight - cases from the beginning of the month. The inventory in the Shahe area also increased. With high production levels, inventory is expected to continue to pressure prices [126].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of industrial silicon show both increasing supply and demand, but the inventory pressure remains significant. Recently, driven by macro - sentiment, the silicon price has been relatively strong and is expected to maintain a high - level consolidation in the short term, with an operating range of 8,000 - 10,000 yuan/ton [2]. - For polysilicon, the supply side has a strong incremental expectation, the demand side has no significant change, the number of warehouse receipts is gradually increasing, but the bullish sentiment is still strong. It is expected that the price will maintain a high - level consolidation in the short term, with an operating range of 44,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Industrial Silicon Cost & Profit - The prices of silicon coal, petroleum coke, and electrodes have rebounded due to anti - involution sentiment and increased demand. However, as the southwestern production areas enter the wet season, the electricity cost has significantly decreased, weakening the cost support for silicon prices [2]. - In July, the average profit of national industrial silicon 553 was - 1,329 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1,032 yuan/ton; the average profit of 421 was - 988 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1,061 yuan/ton [32]. Supply - The number of open furnaces of silicon enterprises has increased overall this week. Northern large factories have gradually resumed supply, and after the cost in the southwestern production areas has decreased, the resumption of production has continued, with the number of open furnaces increasing. The overall supply shows an incremental trend [2]. - On the week of August 14, the number of open furnaces of silicon enterprises increased by 10 compared with the previous week [33]. Demand - The incremental demand mainly comes from the polysilicon sector. As the polysilicon price has reached a high level and the southwestern production areas have entered the wet season, the enthusiasm of enterprises to start work has greatly increased. The polysilicon production in July increased to around 110,000 tons and is expected to increase to about 130,000 tons in August. The organic silicon industry has gradually recovered after some enterprises resumed work after accident - related rectification, with rigid demand for industrial silicon. The demand for silicon - aluminum alloy is weak, with no incremental demand for industrial silicon for the time being [2]. Inventory - The futures price has remained at a high level, and the number of warehouse receipts has been increasing. As silicon enterprises in the southwestern production areas have gradually resumed production, the factory inventories of silicon factories have gradually accumulated [2]. - As of August 14, the social inventory of industrial silicon (social inventory + delivery warehouse) was 545,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2,000 tons; the total factory inventories of Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan were 171,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,100 tons. As of August 15, the registered warehouse receipts on the exchange were 50,599 lots, equivalent to 253,000 tons of spot [120]. Market Outlook The fundamentals of industrial silicon show both increasing supply and demand, and the inventory pressure remains significant. Recently, driven by macro - sentiment, the silicon price has been relatively strong and is expected to maintain a high - level consolidation in the short term, with an operating range of 8,000 - 10,000 yuan/ton [2]. 2. Polysilicon Supply - In July, some polysilicon enterprises increased production, mainly concentrated in the southwestern region and Qinghai region, and some enterprises carried out maintenance. After offsetting the increase and decrease, the monthly output is expected to increase to about 110,000 tons. In August, the wet season and high prices will further stimulate the start - up of polysilicon bases, and the monthly output is expected to increase to about 130,000 tons [2]. - The polysilicon production last week was 29,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 100 tons. As of August 14, the polysilicon inventory was 242,000 tons, an increase of 9,000 tons [63]. Demand Based on the current latest silicon material price, the silicon wafer quotation still cannot cover the full cost. Considering the weak demand and the gradual stabilization of upstream raw material prices, the silicon wafer price lacks upward momentum. Some battery cell enterprises have accumulated inventory due to reduced orders, and the price has loosened. The end - market has a low acceptance of high prices, and the overseas component export tax - refund stockpiling is basically completed, with components continuing to weaken [2]. Inventory As of August 14, the total polysilicon inventory was 242,000 tons, and the silicon wafer inventory was 19.8 GW. As of August 15, the total number of polysilicon futures warehouse receipts was 5,600 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts increased significantly [2]. Market Outlook The supply side of silicon materials has a strong incremental expectation, the demand side has no significant change, the number of warehouse receipts is gradually increasing, but the bullish sentiment is still strong. It is expected that the price will maintain a high - level consolidation in the short term, with an operating range of 44,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the macro - sentiment and the implementation of policies [2]. 3. Organic Silicon Supply In July, the operating rate of China's DMC was 67.73%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.22 percentage points, and the DMC output was 199,800 tons, a month - on - month decline [89]. Demand The demand for organic silicon is weak, and the price is declining. As of August 8, the average price of DMC was 11,400 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 6.17%; the average price of 107 glue was 12,250 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.92%; the average price of silicone oil was 13,900 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.42%. New orders are weak, and monomer factories are selling at reduced prices [95]. 4. Silicon - Aluminum Alloy Supply On the week of August 14, the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy was 56.6%, a month - on - month increase of 1 percentage point; the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy was 53%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1 percentage point [104]. Price The price of silicon - aluminum alloy has rebounded. As of August 15, the average price of ADC12 was 20,350 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.49%; the average price of A356 was 21,150 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.24% [107].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Industrial silicon supply production scheduling has increased, demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support has risen. Industrial silicon 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8640 - 9040 [6]. - For polysilicon, supply production scheduling continues to increase, demand shows continuous recovery overall, and cost support remains stable. Polysilicon 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 50315 - 53285 [8]. - The main bullish factors are cost - upward support and manufacturers' shutdown and production - reduction plans; the main bearish factors are slow post - holiday demand recovery and strong supply but weak demand in downstream polysilicon. The main logic is that capacity mismatch leads to strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change [11][12]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - Industrial Silicon - **Fundamentals**: Last week, industrial silicon supply was 84,000 tons, a 3.70% increase; demand was 78,000 tons, an 11.43% increase. Polysilicon inventory is at a high level, silicon wafers and battery cells are in a loss state, while components are profitable. Silicone inventory is at a low level, with a production profit of 479 yuan/ton, and its comprehensive开工率 is 74.84%, flat compared to the previous period and higher than the historical average. Aluminum alloy ingot inventory is at a high level, with an import loss of 612 yuan/ton, and the recycled aluminum开工率 is at a low level. The cost of sample oxygen - passing 553 production in Xinjiang is in a loss state, and the cost support during the wet season has weakened [6]. - **Basis**: On August 12, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 360 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory was 547,000 tons, a 1.30% increase; sample enterprise inventory was 170,050 tons, a 0.81% decrease; major port inventory was 118,000 tons, a 0.84% decrease [6]. - **Disk**: MA20 is upward, and the 11 - contract futures price closed below MA20 [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing [6]. - **Expectation**: Industrial silicon 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8640 - 9040 [6]. 3.2 Daily Views - Polysilicon - **Fundamentals**: Last week, polysilicon production was 29,400 tons, a 10.94% increase, and the August production schedule is expected to be 130,500 tons, a 22.76% increase compared to the previous month. Silicon wafer production, battery cell production, and component production are showing different trends. The average cost of N - type polysilicon is 36,280 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 9,720 yuan/ton [8]. - **Basis**: On August 12, the price of N - type dense material was 46,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was - 4800 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: Weekly inventory was 233,000 tons, a 1.74% increase, at a high level compared to the same period in history [8]. - **Disk**: MA20 is upward, and the 11 - contract futures price closed above MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net long, and long positions are decreasing [8]. - **Expectation**: Polysilicon 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 50315 - 53285 [8]. 3.3 Market Overview - **Industrial Silicon**: The prices of most futures contracts decreased, and the basis, inventory, production, and开工率 of different regions and specifications showed different changes [15]. - **Polysilicon**: The prices of most futures contracts decreased, and the prices, production, inventory, and profit of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components also changed [17]. 3.4 Other Charts and Tables - **Industrial Silicon Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread Trends**: Showed the historical trends of the basis and the spread between 421 and 553 of industrial silicon [20]. - **Industrial Silicon Inventory**: Displayed the historical inventory changes of industrial silicon in different regions and types [22]. - **Industrial Silicon Production and Capacity Utilization Trends**: Presented the historical production and开工率 changes of industrial silicon in different regions and specifications [26]. - **Industrial Silicon Component Cost Trends**: Showed the historical price trends of electricity, silica, graphite electrodes, and reducing agents in the main production areas [31]. - **Industrial Silicon Cost - Sample Region Trends**: Displayed the historical cost and profit trends of industrial silicon in Sichuan, Yunnan, and Xinjiang [33]. - **Industrial Silicon Weekly and Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Tables**: Presented the weekly and monthly supply - demand balance situations of industrial silicon [35][38]. - **Industrial Silicon Downstream - Organic Silicon**: Included price, production, import - export, and inventory trends of DMC and its downstream products [41][43][46]. - **Industrial Silicon Downstream - Aluminum Alloy**: Included price, supply, inventory, production, and demand trends related to aluminum alloy [49][52][54]. - **Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon**: Included cost, price, inventory, production, supply - demand balance, and trends of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [60][63][66].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about the report industry investment ratings in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Steel**: Steel prices have strengthened again, with clear support levels for rebar and hot-rolled coils. Social inventory has increased significantly in the past two weeks due to positive arbitrage by futures-spot traders. Steel mills have few overstocked products as inventory has shifted from mills to traders. There are expectations of production restrictions in mid-to-late August. Short-term inventory pressure is not high, but off-season demand has low acceptance of high prices. The main contract is approaching the rollover period, and the price of the October contract may fluctuate at high levels. It is advisable to hold long positions and be cautious about chasing high prices [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The 09 contract of iron ore showed a volatile upward trend. Globally, iron ore shipments and arrivals at 45 ports have decreased. On the demand side, steel mills' profit margins are at a relatively high level, with a slight increase in maintenance volume and a slight decline in molten iron production, which remains at around 240,000 tons per day. Steel exports remain strong, maintaining short-term resilience in molten iron production. Terminal demand shows strong performance during the off-season but weakens month-on-month. In terms of inventory, port inventory has slightly increased, and steel mills' equity ore inventory has increased month-on-month. It is expected that molten iron production in August will remain high, with an average daily output of around 236,000 tons. Steel mills' improving profits support raw materials. There are also new supply-side policy expectations and production restriction expectations for Hebei steel mills before the September 3rd parade. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract on dips and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal 01 and short on iron ore 01 [4]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal futures showed a volatile upward trend, with intense price fluctuations recently. Spot auction prices are stable with a slight upward trend, and Mongolian coal prices are stable with an increase. The fifth round of coke price increases has been officially implemented, and the sixth round of price increases has been initiated. On the supply side, coal mine production has decreased month-on-month, and the market remains in short supply. Imported coal prices have rebounded this week after falling last week, and downstream users continue to replenish their inventories. On the demand side, coking plant operations are stable, and the high-level molten iron production of blast furnaces has slightly declined, with continuous downstream replenishment demand. It is expected that molten iron production in August will continue to decline slightly. In terms of inventory, coking plant inventory continues to decrease, port inventory has slightly increased, and steel mill inventory has decreased. It is recommended to go long on coking coal 2601 on dips and conduct an arbitrage strategy of coking coal 9 - 1 reverse spread [7]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot-rolled coil prices have increased, with different price levels and changes in different regions and contracts. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China is 3,360 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton from the previous value [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of steel billets and slabs has changed, and the profit of steel products has generally decreased. For example, the profit of East China hot-rolled coils has decreased by 23 yuan/ton [1]. - **Production**: The daily average molten iron production has slightly decreased, while the production of five major steel products has increased. Rebar production has increased significantly, with a 4.8% increase, and hot-rolled coil production has decreased by 2.4% [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products has increased by 1.7%, the rebar inventory has increased by 1.9%, and the hot-rolled coil inventory has increased by 2.5% [1]. - **Trading and Demand**: Building material trading volume has decreased by 3.5%, the apparent demand for five major steel products has decreased by 0.7%, the apparent demand for rebar has increased by 3.6%, and the apparent demand for hot-rolled coils has decreased by 4.3% [1]. Iron Ore - **Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders have increased, and the basis of the 09 contract has changed. For example, the warehouse receipt cost of PB powder has increased by 8.8 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract of PB powder has increased by 2.3 yuan/ton [4]. - **Supply**: The weekly arrivals at 45 ports have decreased by 5.0%, and the global weekly shipments have decreased by 0.5%. The monthly national import volume has increased by 8.0% [4]. - **Demand**: The weekly average daily molten iron production of 247 steel mills has decreased by 0.2%, the weekly average daily port clearance volume has increased by 6.3%, the monthly national pig iron production has decreased by 3.0%, and the monthly national crude steel production has decreased by 3.9% [4]. - **Inventory**: The 45-port inventory has decreased by 0.2%, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills has increased by 0.0%, and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills have decreased by 4.8% [4]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of coking coal and coke futures have increased, and the basis and spreads have changed. For example, the 09 contract of coking coal has increased by 37 yuan/ton, and the 09 - 01 spread of coking coal has changed from -158 to -150 [7]. - **Supply**: The weekly production of coke has increased slightly, and the production of sample coal mines has decreased. For example, the daily average production of all-sample coking plants has increased by 0.3% [7]. - **Demand**: The weekly molten iron production of 247 steel mills has decreased by 0.2%, and the demand for coke remains supported [7]. - **Inventory**: Coke inventory has generally decreased, and coking coal inventory has changed differently. For example, the total coke inventory has decreased by 0.9%, and the coking coal inventory of all-sample coking plants has decreased by 0.5% [7].

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Silicon Manganese (SM)**: The fundamental contradictions of SM are relatively limited. With the new round of demand release, short - term demand resilience remains. Total inventory shows a downward trend but the absolute level is still high. The price will fluctuate with market sentiment. Short - term cost has strong support, and the downward space is relatively limited. It is advisable to operate within the range or stay on the sidelines and avoid excessive short - selling. The reference range for the main contract is [5884, 6210] [4][5]. - **Silicon Iron (SF)**: The fundamentals are showing signs of weakening. Alloy factory inventories are continuously accumulating and at a high level for the same period. Delivery inventory has stopped increasing and started to decline, but the absolute level is still high. There is no obvious short - term driver, and the price will follow market sentiment. In the medium term, the fundamentals will gradually return to a loose state, and the price may be under pressure. The reference range for the main contract is [5584, 5960] [53][54]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Silicon Manganese - **Supply**: National output has increased for twelve consecutive weeks. Northern production areas have stable operations, with a slight resumption in southern Guizhou and Yunnan maintaining an over 85% operating rate. As of August 8, the national SM output was 195,825 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5,005 tons, and the operating rate was 43.43%, a week - on - week increase of 1.25% [4][11][13]. - **Demand**: Weekly hot metal production was 2.4032 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.39 million tons, while rebar production and apparent demand increased week - on - week. The new round of steel procurement has started, and the procurement volume and price of a leading steel mill have both increased, providing rigid support for alloy demand. As of August 8, the weekly SM demand was 125,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,485 tons [4][14][18]. - **Inventory**: The total enterprise inventory was 161,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,500 tons; the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1,809 to 76,045; the delivery inventory (including forecasts) continued to decline to 384,500 tons, with a slower decline rate [4][23]. - **Cost and Profit**: Port manganese ore prices were strong. Multiple foreign mines' September quotes increased slightly, leading to strong price - holding sentiment among manganese ore merchants. The supply of manganese ore decreased significantly, mainly from South Africa and Australia. The arrival volume of South African manganese ore was 259,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 41.8%. The actual arrival volumes of Gabon and Australian ores were still low. The port inventory is expected to remain low in the short term. Some regions have started the sixth round of coke price increases, but the chemical coke price in production areas has not yet followed [4]. - **Market Price**: As of August 7, the closing price of the SM main contract was 6,064 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Jiangsu was 6,000 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 64 yuan/ton. The spot prices in main production areas increased by 70 - 100 yuan/ton [7][8]. Silicon Iron - **Supply**: National output continued to increase this week, with the operating rate at a low level for the same period. Except for Inner Mongolia, the operating rates in other production areas were relatively stable. Inner Mongolia's production increased by 12.8% week - on - week, and the daily output was at a relatively high level for the same period. As of August 8, the weekly SF output was 109,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4,700 tons, and the operating rate was 34.32%, a week - on - week increase of 0.56% [53][59]. - **Demand**: The demand for SF from five major steel products was 20,266.3 tons, a week - on - week increase of 344.3 tons. In August, a new round of demand was released, and most steel mills' procurement volume and price increased. The inquiry price for a leading steel mill's August SF procurement was 5,700 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from last month, and the procurement quantity was 2,835 tons, an increase of 135 tons from the previous round. Non - steel demand: the domestic magnesium market has been strong recently, and the magnesium ingot price in Fugu has risen to 17,000 yuan/ton [53][62][66]. - **Inventory**: The total enterprise inventory was 71,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6,200 tons; the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 2,396 to 19,646; the delivery inventory (including forecasts) was 107,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7,900 tons [53][67]. - **Cost and Profit**: The semi - coke market was stable, with some enterprises slightly increasing prices. The cost line in production areas moved up slightly, and the spot profit declined compared to the previous period. The immediate costs in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia were 5,499 yuan/ton and 5,352 yuan/ton respectively; the production profits were - 49 yuan/ton and 48 yuan/ton respectively [53][69][71]. - **Market Price**: As of August 7, the closing price of the SF main contract was 5,834 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Jiangsu was 5,600 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 234 yuan/ton [57].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of the asphalt industry is "oscillation", with a short - term trading strategy of "oscillation" for the single - side and an arbitrage strategy of paying attention to the 9 - 12 reverse spread [3]. Core View of the Report - The supply and demand of asphalt both increase, and there is no significant contradiction in its own supply - demand relationship, so it follows the trend of crude oil. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it will move in line with crude oil [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: The asphalt production plan of local refineries in August 2025 is tentatively set at around 1.26 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 250,000 tons (27%) and a month - on - month increase of 60,000 tons (5%). The total asphalt production of local refineries from January to August 2025 is expected to be about 8.89 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.11 million tons (14%). The supply of imported asphalt is expected to shrink, supporting the import price. [3] - **Demand**: The release of demand falls short of expectations. Overall capital issues, the northern flood season, and the southern rainy season suppress demand. The downstream construction in the north is gradually recovering, while there is no obvious improvement in the south. The total shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises this week is 415,000 tons, a slight month - on - month increase of 0.2%. [3] - **Inventory**: The factory inventory decreased significantly this week, from 773,000 tons last Thursday to 723,000 tons this Thursday. The social inventory increased slightly, from 1.827 million tons last Thursday to 1.857 million tons this Thursday. [3] - **Cost**: The current crude oil market is in an adjustment period after intense geopolitical fluctuations. In the short term, the market is likely to move sideways with support below and limited upside. In the medium term, it is unfavorable for the bulls. [3] 2. Price - The report presents the mainstream market prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in regions such as East China, South China, North China, and Shandong, as well as the import prices from South Korea and Singapore [5][12]. 3. Spread, Basis, and Delivery Profit - The report shows the trends of asphalt cracking spread, asphalt - coker feedstock spread, and the basis in major regions [17][21]. 4. Supply - **Scheduled Production Expectation**: It shows the monthly scheduled production and actual production of asphalt in China from 2025 - 01 to 2025 - 08, as well as the production in different regions in recent years [25]. - **Capacity Utilization**: It presents the capacity utilization rates of heavy - traffic asphalt in China and different regions from 2019 to 2025, and the weekly and monthly maintenance loss volumes of asphalt in China from 2018 to 2025 [34][40]. 5. Cost and Profit - It shows the production gross profit of asphalt in Shandong from 2021 to 2025, and the price, premium, and port inventory of diluted asphalt [43][46]. 6. Inventory - **Factory Inventory**: It shows the factory inventory and inventory rate of asphalt in China and different regions from 2019 to 2025 [51][54]. - **Social Inventory**: It shows the social inventory of asphalt in China and different regions from 2022 to 2025 [57]. 7. Demand - **Shipment Volume**: It shows the shipment volumes of asphalt in China and different regions from 2022 to 2025 [60]. - **Downstream Operating Rate**: It shows the operating rates of road - modified asphalt, modified asphalt, building asphalt, waterproofing membranes, and modified asphalt in different regions in recent years [62][66][69].