Group 1: Dollar Cycle and Economic Impact - The dollar cycle reflects the relative strength of the U.S. economy and global investor portfolio adjustments, with a strong U.S. economy leading to dollar appreciation and increased capital inflows[1] - In 2025, the dollar is expected to enter a short-term correction due to the negative impact of Trump 2.0 on the U.S. economy, which may undermine investor confidence in the dollar[1] - The dollar's share in the international monetary system may decline as global economic multipolarity increases and countries diversify their reserve assets[1] Group 2: Economic and Inflation Forecasts - U.S. GDP growth is projected at 2.9% in 2023, decreasing to 1.4% in 2025, while PCE inflation is expected to stabilize around 2.8%[2] - The Eurozone's GDP growth is forecasted to be 0.4% in 2023 and 0.8% in 2025, with CPI inflation expected to decrease from 5.5% in 2023 to 2.1% in 2025[2] - The U.S. federal funds target rate is anticipated to be 5.33% in 2023, dropping to 4.00% by 2025[2] Group 3: Dollar Index and Its Influences - The dollar index, which is a weighted average of the dollar against six major currencies, has seen significant fluctuations, with a long-term upward trend since 2008[3] - The euro/dollar exchange rate, which accounts for nearly 60% of the dollar index, has a decisive influence on its movements, with a correlation of 0.7 to 0.8 with U.S.-Eurozone interest rate differentials[3] - The dollar index is expected to decline to around 97 by the end of 2025 due to trade wars and narrowing economic growth differentials between the U.S. and Eurozone[3] Group 4: Market Dynamics and Investor Behavior - Market risk preferences significantly affect capital flows, with a tendency for funds to return to dollar assets during risk-off periods, strengthening the dollar index[1] - The anticipated Trump 2.0 trade war may lead to a decrease in the allocation of dollar assets by international investors, exacerbating the dollar's depreciation[1] - The dollar's dominant position in international payments and reserves remains intact, despite fluctuations, with its share in global reserves projected to be 57.8% by 2024[1]

·InTouch Capital Markets：市场出现看多韩元迹象 【机构分析】 ·德意志银行：美联储可能要到12月才会降息 ·美债收益率在重磅数据出炉前持稳 ·中金：美股前景不确定性增大让非美风险资产的吸引力相对上升 ·凯投宏观：澳储行不愿大力降息 ·IG Markets：澳储行仍有降息空间 ·中金指出，美国股债汇重现"三杀"，或反映通胀环境与美元周期发生重大变化。"三杀"的本质是美元 资产中安全资产（债券与现金）的避险能力下降，难以对冲风险资产（股票与商品）的回调亏损。在美 元资产内部进行资产配置，无法有效分散风险，需警惕美国股债汇"三杀"反复化、长期化的可能性。美 元资产面临困局，美债美元避险能力下降，导致安全资产更为稀缺，有助于提升黄金的配置价值。美股 前景不确定性增大，让非美风险资产的吸引力相对上升，中欧股票可能体现相对韧性。 ·凯投宏观经济学家Abhijit Surya称，随着劳动力市场持续强劲，比以往任何时候都更加确信澳储行将不 愿大力降息，澳储行的政策放松周期可能仅限于再降息两次，将官方隔夜拆款利率从目前的4.10%下调 至3.60%。 ·IG Markets分析师Tony Sycamor ...

Group 1: Trade Negotiation Outcomes - The US will retain 10% of the 20% tariff on fentanyl and suspend 90% of the remaining 24% tariffs for 90 days, while canceling all tariffs imposed on April 8 and 9[1] - China will suspend the implementation of the 24% tariffs on US goods for the initial 90 days, retaining 10% on these products and canceling other subsequent tariffs[1] - The tariff reductions exceed previous investor expectations, potentially raising the volatility center of the domestic equity market[1] Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - A-shares opened higher and closed up, with significant gains in sectors like power equipment, machinery, and electronics, confirming the positive outlook[2] - The market's risk appetite is expected to increase further due to the positive signals from the US-China negotiations, with potential recovery in the export chain[2] - The current A-share risk premium is influenced by domestic credit cycles and the US dollar cycle, with a reasonable P/E ratio estimated at 21x compared to the current 19x[4] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Short-term recommendations include increasing allocations to technology and export sectors, while maintaining a cautious stance on industries with high US exposure[5] - Mid-term strategies should focus on sectors benefiting from internal certainty, such as public funds and industries with improved earnings forecasts[5] - The Hong Kong market is expected to show relative returns, with recommendations to increase allocations in technology and consumer sectors[6]

关税谈判结果总结分析 20250512 摘要 • 市场预期转变推动指数进入新波动区间：市场对中美贸易竞争的预期在 4 月前普遍悲观，压制市场。当前市场信心增强，预期乐观，指数有望进入 更高波动区间。 • 中期风格偏向科技成长：基于特朗普政府实用主义政策可能调整、化债目 标或通过弱美元实现，以及美元周期下 A 股流动性驱动，远期基本面品种 如科技成长占优。 • 关税谈判结果超预期：日内瓦谈判表明双方迫切止损，90 天延长 24%关 税背后可能涉及稀土、芬太尼、扩大进口及农产品等承诺，将在第二步谈 判中解决。 • 关税对企业影响分析：10%关税可消化，20%对低利润传统产品构成挑战， 高科技产品仍可维持。30%则多数企业出口困难。 • 美国承受压力：高关税无法兑现、海关停摆、产供链受影响及家庭消费意 愿提升导致矛盾加剧，美国需回归经济正常运转水平。 • 企业应对策略：企业应分头突围，通过内销承接部分出口转移，拓展海外 市场，海外投资和产能转移，避免过度依赖单一市场，发展全产业链。 • 贸易战缓解对资本市场的积极影响：中央政治局提出"六稳"，美国因国 内经济问题采取止损策略，但仅是短期缓冲，90 天后谈判不顺利将面 ...

Global Liquidity Overview - Global liquidity remains tight, with the M2 money supply growth rate near historical lows, indicating a constrained liquidity environment[1] - The strength of the US dollar significantly influences global liquidity trends, following a cyclical pattern every 4-5 years[1] US Dollar Liquidity Analysis - Current indicators show that US dollar liquidity is generally tight, but there is no immediate risk of liquidity shocks[2] - The net liquidity in the US financial system has tightened since 2021, remaining below the long-term trend line, suggesting a constrained liquidity scale[2] - As of May 9, 2025, the 2-year and 10-year US Treasury yields are at 3.88% and 4.37%, respectively, both at historically high levels[2] Future Liquidity Projections - A weaker dollar trend is expected to lead to a loosening of global liquidity, driven by the need to balance fiscal policies and reduce trade deficits[3] - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to restart interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, which would lower dollar interest rates and promote looser global liquidity conditions[3] A-Share Market Valuation - The loosening of global liquidity is likely to benefit global risk assets, particularly non-US assets that have been under pressure due to a strong dollar[5] - The nominal growth rate difference between China and the US has narrowed significantly from 6.6% in Q2 2022 to just 0.1% in Q1 2025, enhancing the relative value of Chinese assets[7] - The "stock-bond yield spread" model indicates that the current A-share market offers attractive investment opportunities, with a yield spread of approximately 4.3%, suggesting high configuration value[8]