Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sectors. Some sectors are influenced by macro - economic factors, policy changes, and supply - demand relationships [2]. - Different commodities have different price trends and investment opportunities, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed for each commodity. Summary by Categories Financial - **Equity Index**: There is an obvious high - low switching phenomenon between sectors. It is recommended to gradually take profits on long positions in IM futures and replace them with a small amount of short positions in MO put options with a strike price of 6000 in the 08 contract. Unilateral strategies suggest short - term waiting and paying attention to the capital side and incremental policies [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: After the tax period this week, funds may gradually return to a loose state. In the short - term, the bond market is significantly affected by the stock - bond seesaw effect and is in a box - shock stage. Curve strategies can continue to bet on steepening [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold fluctuates more due to short - term trade conflicts and a weaker dollar, maintaining a shock - upward trend above $3300. Silver has further upward space above $38 and long positions can be held [2]. Shipping - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The EC main contract fluctuates. It is expected that the near - month will be weakly volatile. It is advisable to short the 08 contract or lightly short the 10 contract on rallies [2]. Black Metals - **Steel and Iron Ore**: The sentiment in the black metal market has improved, pig iron production has rebounded, and steel mills' restocking provides support. It is recommended to go long on dips for steel, iron ore, coking coal, and coke [2]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: With the advancement of anti - involution policies, copper prices fluctuate strongly, with the main contract referring to 78,500 - 81,000 [2]. - **Aluminum and Related Products**: Alumina is strong due to capacity elimination expectations and squeezing risks. Aluminum prices have a slight recovery, but the off - season inventory accumulation expectation is still strong. Zinc has weak demand expectations with inventory accumulation. Tin, nickel, and stainless steel have different trends affected by macro and industrial factors [2]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The macro and fundamental aspects are in a multi - empty stalemate, and short - term oil prices fluctuate mainly. It is recommended to have a bullish mindset in the short - term [2]. - **Chemicals**: Different chemical products have different trends. For example, PX is supported in the short - term, PTA is also supported, and some products like caustic soda and PVC are affected by macro and policy factors [2]. Agricultural Products - Different agricultural products have different price trends. For example, soybeans have strong bottom support, palm oil is weak due to slow exports, and cotton has a short - term strong trend and a medium - term bearish trend [2]. Special Commodities - Glass, rubber, and industrial silicon are affected by macro factors. Their prices have risen, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. New Energy - Polysilicon and lithium carbonate are affected by macro - sentiment. Their prices have upward trends, and it is recommended to wait and see while paying attention to risk management [2].

Core Viewpoint - China is prepared for a prolonged trade conflict with the U.S. and has implemented new export control measures to strengthen its strategic position in the ongoing trade war [1][3][9] Summary by Relevant Sections Export Control Measures - The Ministry of Commerce of China has released a new version of the export control technology catalog, which includes a list of technologies that are prohibited from export and those that require licensing for export [1] - Key changes in the catalog focus on building environment control technology, battery technology, and non-ferrous metal metallurgy technology [1] Strategic Preparedness - China recognizes that the trade conflict with the U.S. is unavoidable and is taking steps to prepare for potential escalations, including the possibility of a second round of tariff wars initiated by the U.S. [6] - The recent changes in trade rules and diplomatic efforts are aimed at transforming China's position from passive to proactive in the face of external pressures [6][8] Diplomatic Efforts - Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi has been actively engaging with various countries, including visits to Europe and Malaysia, to strengthen alliances and prepare for upcoming international meetings [6] - There is an acknowledgment that the European Union is not entirely unified and that China can adopt a strategy of "picking off" individual EU countries for cooperation [8] Importance of Strategic Assets - The export control measures are viewed as a "trump card" that can help China maintain a strong position in the face of Western pressures [8][9] - The ability to control core technologies and resources is seen as essential for China to remain competitive and resilient against U.S. attempts to impose tariffs and other trade barriers [3][9]

Core Viewpoint - The German Finance Minister, Christian Lindner, emphasized the necessity to resolve the trade conflict promptly, but not at any cost [1] Group 1 - The statement reflects a strong stance on the importance of ending the trade conflict while maintaining certain principles [1]

Gold Market - Gold prices continued to decline slightly, indicating potential signs of deterioration in both short-term and mid-term trends, possibly marking the beginning of a mid-term adjustment [1] - The latest inflation data has reduced the probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, leading to a stronger dollar and weaker gold prices [1] - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June rose 0.3% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year, both in line with market expectations, with the month-on-month increase being the largest since February [1] - Core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, increased by 0.2% month-on-month and 2.9% year-on-year, surpassing the previous value of 2.8% [1] - The probability of a rate cut in July has dropped to below 5%, with expectations that the Federal Reserve may only cut rates once this year [1] - The relationship between the Federal Reserve and President Trump is expected to worsen, increasing market uncertainty, which may still favor gold in the long term [1] - Technically, gold is showing a downward trend with a focus on the resistance level around $3346 [1] Oil Market - Oil prices continued to decline slightly, with a high probability of a downward C-wave pattern [2] - The fundamental pressure on oil prices has lessened, but the oversupply situation remains the biggest obstacle to price increases, with a potential drop to the $55 level [2] - OPEC's latest monthly report aims to instill confidence in the market, predicting better-than-expected global economic growth in the second half of the year and high refinery crude processing rates due to increased summer travel [2] - OPEC maintains its forecasts for global oil demand growth in 2025 and 2026 at 1.29 million barrels per day and 1.28 million barrels per day, respectively, with a significant increase of 2.1 million barrels per day in global refinery crude processing in June compared to May [2] - However, economic uncertainties may suppress oil consumption demand, and OPEC's continued production increase to regain market share contradicts efforts to maintain oil prices [2] - Technically, oil prices are showing a high probability of a downward trend, with a focus on the resistance level around $67 [2] Copper Market - Copper prices have shown a series of small declines and small increases, likely indicating an adjustment to previous gains [3] - The short-term outlook suggests a potential further decline, but the overall bullish logic remains intact [3] - Attention should be paid to the support level around $5.35 [3] Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index has shown a series of small declines and small increases, indicating a potential completion of its current structure [5] - A downward continuation pattern has formed in the 4-hour cycle, with a focus on the resistance level around 39,940 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical environment and trade conflicts with the United States have created "extremely uncertain" impacts on prices according to European Central Bank Governing Council member Nagel [1] Group 1 - The current geopolitical tensions are contributing to uncertainty in economic conditions [1] - Trade conflicts with the United States are a significant factor affecting price stability [1]

Group 1 - The Brazilian government, represented by Agriculture Minister Carlos Favaro, criticized the U.S. decision to impose a 50% tariff on Brazilian goods as an "unfair measure" and plans to seek alternative markets in the Middle East and South Asia [1] - Brazilian President Lula indicated that the government could take various actions in response to the U.S. tariffs, including filing a complaint with the WTO and implementing reciprocal measures based on the recently passed economic equivalence law [1] - The Brazilian government has expressed dissatisfaction with the U.S. tariffs and has summoned the U.S. chargé d'affaires for clarification regarding comments made about former President Bolsonaro [1] Group 2 - The Brazilian newspaper "O Estado de S. Paulo" suggested that imposing a 50% tariff on Brazilian products would not alleviate the legal troubles faced by former President Bolsonaro and would be counterproductive to U.S. economic goals [3] - China's Foreign Ministry emphasized that tariffs should not be used as tools for coercion or interference in other countries' internal affairs, highlighting the principle of sovereign equality [3] Group 3 - President Trump announced plans to impose a uniform tariff of 15% or 20% on nearly all remaining trade partners, indicating a broader strategy of increasing tariffs [5] - The U.S. has already sent tariff warning letters to countries like South Korea and Japan, which have been described as lacking negotiation sincerity and reducing dialogue opportunities [5] Group 4 - The German automotive industry is facing significant losses due to U.S. tariffs, with calls for a swift resolution to the trade conflict [7] - Economic experts warn that the imposition of high tariffs on EU goods could lead to substantial trade disruptions and an escalation of economic conflict between the U.S. and EU [7] - Recent data indicates that U.S. companies are beginning to feel the impact of tariffs, with prices for imported steel and aluminum rising nearly 30% from January to May, affecting various sectors reliant on these materials [7]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement of a 30% tariff on products from Mexico and the EU by the U.S. is expected to lead to significant economic repercussions, including potential retaliation from the EU and a deeper economic slowdown in the Eurozone [1][2][3]. Economic Impact - A 30% tariff, combined with a 10% retaliatory tariff from the EU, could shrink Eurozone economic output by 0.7% [1][3]. - The European Central Bank (ECB) may lower its policy interest rate to 1% by the first quarter of 2026, down from the current 2% [1][3]. - Germany, as a key exporter, could face losses exceeding €200 billion due to tariffs ranging from 20% to 50% by 2028 [3]. Market Reactions - The threat of tariffs has increased risk exposure across asset classes, with European stocks potentially facing double-digit declines [4]. - The euro may experience downward pressure if high tariffs are imposed, affecting its macroeconomic outlook [4]. - Bond markets are reflecting heightened risk aversion, with predictions that short-term euro interest rates could drop below 1.5% and 10-year German bond yields may fall below 2.5% [4]. Negotiation Dynamics - As the August 1 deadline approaches, there is a complex negotiation landscape, with the possibility of temporary agreements but a higher likelihood of tariff increases [5]. - Internal divisions within the EU exist regarding the response to U.S. tariffs, with some countries advocating for caution while others push for a stronger stance [5]. - The ongoing trade uncertainty may delay the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, which could serve as an unexpected leverage point for the EU in negotiations [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight LME copper first declined and then rose, falling 0.2% to $9,643.5 per ton; SHFE copper main contract fell 0.34%. The market is worried about the intensification of trade conflicts. Trump's threat to impose a 50% tariff on copper from August 1st has caused market discussions. From the price difference between US copper and LME copper, the market has priced in 25%. In the short - term, copper may still be weak, and the implementation of the 50% copper tariff will cause strong price fluctuations [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina fluctuated strongly, while Shanghai aluminum fluctuated weakly. Guinea's implementation of the bauxite index has raised concerns about cost expansion. In the short - term, the near - month contracts will continue to be strong, and it is recommended to buy low and sell high in the 20,000 range. The off - season effect of aluminum alloy is more obvious [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight LME nickel fell 1.12%, and Shanghai nickel fell 1.08%. The Indonesian government will evaluate the work plans and budgets of the mining and coal industries. The cost support of stainless steel has shifted down slightly, and the overall inventory remains high. The demand for nickel sulfate in July has increased slightly month - on - month. In the short - term, it will still fluctuate, and be vigilant against overseas policy disturbances [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Macroscopically, overseas focuses on tariffs, and some economies have made counter - measures. Domestically, China's June social financing and export data are positive. In terms of inventory, LME, Comex, and domestic social inventories have all increased. The demand is still weak due to the off - season. The 50% copper tariff may cause price fluctuations [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina prices rose, while Shanghai aluminum prices were weak. The implementation of the bauxite index in Guinea and the low inventory support the price. The off - season effect of aluminum alloy is obvious [1][2]. - **Nickel**: LME and SHFE nickel prices fell. The Indonesian government's evaluation of the industry and the decline in nickel ore prices have an impact on the market. The cost of stainless steel has decreased, and the demand for nickel sulfate has increased slightly [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - water copper decreased, and the inventory of LME, COMEX, and social inventory increased. The import loss of the active contract widened [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead decreased, and the inventory of LME and SHFE increased [3]. - **Aluminum**: The prices of Wuxi and Nanhai aluminum decreased, and the inventory of LME, SHFE, and social inventory of alumina increased [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased, and the inventory of LME, SHFE, and social inventory increased [4]. - **Zinc**: The main settlement price and spot price decreased, and the inventory of LME, SHFE, and social inventory increased [5]. - **Tin**: The main settlement price increased slightly, and the inventory of LME increased while SHFE decreased [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the spot premium trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][9][11]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the near - far month spread trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][18][21]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the LME inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [24][26][28]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the SHFE inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [31][33][35]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the social inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [37][39][41]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts present the trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [44][46][48]. 3.4 Team Introduction - **Zhan Dapeng**: A master of science, the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with more than a decade of commodity research experience [51]. - **Wang Heng**: A master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, an analyst focusing on aluminum and silicon [50][51]. - **Zhu Xi**: A master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, an analyst focusing on lithium and nickel [52].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the escalating trade tensions between the EU and the US, particularly in light of President Trump's announcement of a 30% tariff on EU and Mexican imports, which has led to increased market volatility and concerns over economic impacts [1][7][4]. Group 1: Trade Negotiations - The EU is preparing to strengthen cooperation with countries also threatened by US tariffs, including Canada and Japan, potentially coordinating response measures [2][6]. - EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stated that while the EU has paused retaliatory measures until August 1, it is preparing further countermeasures to ensure readiness [10][11]. - The EU's current countermeasure list could affect approximately €210 billion (about $245 billion) of US goods, with an additional list of around €720 billion being prepared [11]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following Trump's tariff announcement, European stock indices fell, with the Euro Stoxx 50 index down 0.6% and the German DAX index down 0.7% on July 14 [3][7]. - US stock markets also experienced declines, with the Dow Jones down 0.15% and the S&P 500 down 0.2% [8]. Group 3: Economic Impact - Analysts warn that if the 30% tariff is fully implemented, the effective tariff rate on the EU could rise to 26 percentage points, potentially leading to a cumulative GDP decline of 1.2% in the Eurozone by the end of 2026 [4][24]. - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs may lead to increased inflation and volatility in interest rates and exchange rates, impacting risk assets and commodities [24]. Group 4: Political Responses - French President Macron expressed strong dissatisfaction with Trump's tariff threats, urging the EU to prepare credible countermeasures if no agreement is reached by August 1 [13]. - German Chancellor Merz indicated that failure to resolve the trade conflict through negotiations would fundamentally impact European exporters [14]. Group 5: Ongoing Negotiations - Key issues in the ongoing EU-US negotiations include automotive and agricultural tariffs, with discussions about a preliminary agreement that may involve a 10% tariff on most EU exports [16][17]. - There is skepticism among EU officials regarding Trump's commitment to the 30% tariff, viewing it as a negotiation tactic rather than a definitive policy [18].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the escalating trade conflict between the U.S. and Japan, highlighting Japan's strong response to potential U.S. tariffs and the significant economic implications for both countries. Group 1: Economic Impact - Japan's automotive industry contributes 8% to the national GDP and relies on the U.S. market for 28.3% of its exports, making it a critical area in the trade conflict [1] - If the U.S. imposes a 25% tariff, Japanese automotive companies could face annual losses of 4.46 trillion yen, putting 120,000 jobs at risk [1] - Japan currently imposes a 778% tariff on imported rice, which is a key political issue for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party [3] Group 2: Financial Leverage - Japan holds a significant amount of U.S. Treasury bonds, and officials have indicated readiness to sell these bonds in response to U.S. tariff actions [3] - A previous sale of $20 billion in U.S. bonds by Japan led to a spike in U.S. ten-year Treasury yields to 4.5% [3] - If Japan were to sell a trillion dollars in bonds, it could lead to U.S. mortgage rates exceeding 8% and significantly increase corporate borrowing costs [3] Group 3: Employment Concerns - Japanese companies employ 880,000 workers in the U.S., with Toyota alone supporting 27,000 American families in Kentucky [3] - 23 Japanese companies, including Honda and Nissan, have prepared plans to withdraw investments from the U.S. [3] - Toyota's recent decision to redirect a planned $3.6 billion investment from Texas to Mexico is seen as a direct response to U.S. trade policies [3] Group 4: Political Dynamics - The upcoming Japanese Senate elections are influencing the government's stance, with pressure from agricultural lawmakers against any concessions [6] - The threat of U.S. tariffs has reportedly increased voter turnout by 70% [6] - Japanese automotive companies are initiating domestic production plans to reduce reliance on U.S. parts, aiming to cut 34% of their U.S. component orders [6] Group 5: Historical Context - The article draws parallels to the 2008 financial crisis, noting that Japan's sale of $23 billion in bonds at that time caused a 7.3% drop in the Dow Jones index [6] - Current warnings suggest that a similar bond sell-off could have severe repercussions for the U.S. economy, including a potential 15% increase in supermarket prices [6]