美方宣布将对中方加征100%关税，商务部的回应是：如果美方一意孤行，中方也必将坚决采取相应措施，维护自身正当权益。 一场围绕稀土的博弈正牵动着全球供应链的神经，中美之间短暂的贸易休兵再次被打破。 美国东部时间2025年10月10日，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体上宣布，将于11月1日起对中国商品加征100%的额外关税，并对所有关键软件实施出口管制。 这一决定是对中国10月9日发布的稀土相关物项出口管制措施的回应。特朗普称中国的稀土管制"极其激进"，并表示美国将采取对等回应。 金融市场应声动荡，美股大幅下挫，道琼斯指数暴跌近900点，半导体类股整体下滑超过5%。 中国稀土管制内容 10月9日，中国商务部发布了两项关于稀土的出口管制公告，为全球稀土供应链投下了一颗"震撼弹"。 根据商务部2025年第61号公告，中国将对含有中国成分的境外稀土相关物项实施出口管制。 具体来看，管制内容包括三大类：含有中国稀土原料价值占比达0.1%及以上的境外制造物项；使用中国稀土相关技术在境外生产的稀土物项；以及原产 于中国的稀土物项。 同日发布的第62号公告则对稀土相关技术实施出口管制，涵盖稀土开采、冶炼分离、金属冶炼、磁材制造、稀土二 ...

Core Viewpoint - Michael Wilson from Morgan Stanley warns that if trade tensions are not resolved before November, the U.S. stock market faces a potential decline of up to 11% [1][4]. Group 1: Market Predictions - In a pessimistic scenario, the S&P 500 index could drop to a range of 5800 to 6027 points, representing a decline of 8% to 11% from last Friday's closing price [1]. - Wilson highlights that the market is under pressure for a correction due to high investor exposure and elevated valuation levels [1][4]. Group 2: Recent Market Performance - The U.S. stock market experienced a significant drop last Friday, with the S&P 500 index falling by 2.7% and the Nasdaq 100 index plummeting by 3.5%, ending a record bull market driven by AI investments [3]. - As of the report, U.S. stock index futures showed an upward trend, with Nasdaq 100 futures rising by 2%, Dow futures up by 1.05%, and S&P 500 futures increasing by 1.5% [3]. Group 3: Trade Tensions and Economic Outlook - Wilson notes that the recent escalation in trade friction was unexpected, but the fundamental outlook remains optimistic [4]. - He emphasizes that if trade uncertainties persist into early November, a larger correction than most expect could occur [4]. - Despite short-term warnings, Wilson maintains that once trade tensions ease, the economy is expected to recover by 2026, supported by a strong argument that can withstand short-term tactical trade escalations [4].

在上周五实现连续第八周上涨后，现货黄金向上触及4070美元/盎司，日内涨近1.5%； 数字货币反弹，比特币一度重回115000美元上方； 周一亚洲市场，风险资产全线反弹，标普500指数期货攀升超1%，数字货币反弹，比特币24小时内上涨4.2%，一度重回115000美元上方；黄金也延续 升势，续创新高。民生证券分析认为，这一次，结合周末特朗普答记者问中体现的克制，以及中方的理性应对，依旧认为双方之间的这一基调没有改变， 不会成为市场的拐点性事件。 受贸易冲突担忧影响，周一亚洲股市普跌，而美股逆转上周五的悲观气氛，美股期货全线反弹，投资者重新涌向股票、石油和数字货币等资产，黄金也 延续升势，再创新高。 周一，美股期货表现强劲，标普500指数期货上涨1.3%，纳斯达克期货跳涨1.8%； 亚洲主要股指周一普遍下跌，MSCI亚太地区(除日本)股指下跌1.6%。韩国股市下跌1.3%，澳大利亚股市下跌0.6%； 石油价格反弹超过1%； 商务部新闻发言人12日就近期中方相关经贸政策措施情况答记者问。针对美方以"中方采取稀土等相关物项出口管制"为由，威胁将对中方加征100%关 税，并对所有关键软件实施出口管制，发言人表示：动辄 ...

Market Overview - Asian stock markets experienced widespread declines due to trade conflict concerns, while U.S. stock futures rebounded strongly, with the S&P 500 futures rising by 1.3% and Nasdaq futures jumping by 1.8% [2][4] - The MSCI Asia-Pacific index (excluding Japan) fell by 1.6%, with South Korea's market down 1.3% and Australia's market down 0.6% [2][4] Commodity Performance - Oil prices rebounded by over 1%, with WTI crude oil increasing by 0.9% to $59 per barrel [2][10] - Spot gold reached a new high of $4,070 per ounce, gaining nearly 1.5% during the day [2][6] - Silver approached its historical high of $52.50 per ounce, rising to $50.34, while platinum and palladium saw increases of over 2% [14] Cryptocurrency Market - The cryptocurrency market saw a strong rebound, with Bitcoin rising above $115,000 and Ethereum increasing by 10.8% to $4,143 [17][19] - The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies recovered to $3.85 trillion, up nearly 10% from two days prior [19] Economic Context - The U.S. earnings season is set to begin, with major banks like JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup expected to report third-quarter results [5] - Analysts predict an overall earnings growth of 8.8% year-on-year for S&P 500 companies in the third quarter, indicating a need for strong performance to support current high valuation levels [5]

Group 1 - The article highlights the significant impact of Trump's announcement to impose a 100% tariff on all Chinese goods starting November 1, leading to a risk-off sentiment in the market, resulting in a notable decline in U.S. stocks and copper prices, while gold remained strong [2][5][8] - In the precious metals sector, COMEX gold rose by 3.15%, while silver fell by 0.95%. The SHFE gold contract increased by 3.11%, and SHFE silver rose by 1.5% [4][29] - The copper market experienced a sharp decline due to renewed trade concerns, with COMEX copper prices dropping by 4.72% and SHFE copper prices fluctuating [4][10] Group 2 - The article discusses the divergence in performance between gold and copper, with gold prices remaining strong amid macroeconomic risks, while copper faced downward pressure due to trade tensions and domestic consumption issues [7][57] - The COMEX copper price curve has shifted downward, indicating a contango structure, with significant inventory accumulation observed, surpassing 330,000 tons [10][11] - The copper concentrate market is under pressure, with processing fees remaining low and expectations for a rebound in processing fees being limited in the short term [15][23] Group 3 - The article notes that the gold market is expected to remain strong in the medium to long term due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and the decoupling of U.S.-China trade, despite potential short-term volatility [7][57] - The inventory levels for COMEX gold decreased by approximately 170,000 ounces, while COMEX silver inventory increased by about 941,000 ounces [45] - The SPDR gold ETF holdings increased by 2.3 tons to 1,017 tons, indicating a growing interest in gold as a safe-haven asset [50]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【黑色金属周报】 国贸期货 黑色金属研究中心 2025-10-13 张宝慧 从业资格证号：F0286636 投资咨询证号：Z0010820 董子勖 从业资格证号：F03094002 投资咨询证号：Z0020036 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 薛夏泽 从业资格证号：F03117750 投资咨询证号：Z0022680 目录 01 钢材 02 焦煤焦炭 关 税 风 波 再 起 ， 注 意 风 偏 受 拖 累 贸 易 纠 纷 再 起 ， 风 险 资 产 集 体 下 挫 03 铁矿石 贸 易 冲 突 再 次 加 剧 ， 风 险 资 产 受 挫 严 重 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，期市有风险，投资需谨慎 螺纹热卷产量及表需 0 80 160 240 320 400 480 01/01 03/01 04/30 06/29 08/28 10/27 12/26 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 10 20 30 40 50 6 ...

Group 1: Gold Market - The price of spot gold has surpassed $4000 per ounce for the first time on October 8, 2025, with an annual increase of over 52% [3] - The rise in gold prices is driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and geopolitical risks [3] - Analysts at Bank of America have raised their long-term target price for gold to $2500, with a mid-term outlook of $4000 [3] - Shandong Gold reported a year-on-year net profit increase of 102.98% in the first half of 2025, benefiting from rising gold prices [3] - Central banks worldwide have significantly increased their gold purchases, with a growth of over 70% in the precious metals scale of listed banks in 2024, reaching the highest level since 2018 [3] Group 2: Rare Earth Market - China's export controls on seven types of medium and heavy rare earths, implemented in April 2025, have caused global dysprosium prices to surge from $850 to $1200 per kilogram [5] - The export restrictions directly impact the U.S. military industry, particularly affecting the production of F-35 fighter jets, which require 417 kilograms of rare earth materials per unit [5] - China holds a near-monopoly in the rare earth sector, controlling 70% of global mineral reserves and 90% of refining and separation capacity [5] - Companies like Northern Rare Earth and Jinkeli Permanent Magnet are positioned to benefit from the growing demand in electric vehicles and robotics [5] - The rare earth export control policy also applies to overseas products containing Chinese components, effectively giving China significant leverage over the global supply chain [5] Group 3: Semiconductor Market - Technological breakthroughs are driving the semiconductor sector, with Shanghai Microelectronics producing its first chips using a 28nm immersion lithography machine in July 2025 [7] - Harbin Institute of Technology has achieved a 99.8% stability in its 13.5nm extreme ultraviolet light source technology, reducing costs by 60% [7] - The domestic production rate of the lithography machine supply chain has significantly increased, with key components from companies like Maolai Optics and Blue Eagle Equipment [7] - Longchuang Technology expects a net profit increase of 131.39% to 145.38% in the third quarter, indicating rising industry prosperity [7] - Challenges remain, as the 28nm lithography machine still lags behind international standards in high-precision components, requiring time for process optimization [7]

Group 1 - The article discusses the historical context of China's competition with the United States, positioning China as the third major competitor after the Soviet Union and Japan since World War II [1][4]. - It highlights that the competition with the Soviet Union was primarily military and ideological, while the competition with Japan was mainly economic [2][3]. - The article asserts that China represents a comprehensive competitor to the U.S., encompassing military, economic, and technological challenges, combining elements of both previous competitors [4][5]. Group 2 - The article notes that since 2014, the power dynamics between the U.S. and China have been shifting, with China's economy surpassing the U.S. in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms [6]. - It references former President Obama's approach to countering China's rise through initiatives like the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), aimed at excluding China from shaping global economic rules [7][8]. - The article contrasts the differing approaches of Obama and Trump towards China, indicating a significant shift in U.S. strategy under Trump, who viewed China as a strategic competitor [9][16]. Group 3 - The article details the timeline of U.S.-China relations, noting Trump's state visit to China in 2017 and the subsequent shift in U.S. policy towards viewing China as a strategic competitor [10][14]. - It discusses the escalation of trade conflicts starting in 2018, with the U.S. invoking Section 301 of its Trade Act to investigate China, leading to a series of tariffs and negotiations [20][21]. - The article emphasizes that the context of U.S.-China relations has evolved, with increasing pessimism from China regarding future economic ties due to rising tensions and geopolitical competition [33][34]. Group 4 - The article argues that the fundamental issue in U.S.-China relations is not merely economic factors like tariffs or trade agreements, but rather the long-term perception of the relationship's trajectory [35][36]. - It suggests that any future agreements must address both economic and geopolitical issues simultaneously, as avoiding these discussions is no longer feasible [40].

Core Viewpoint - The macroeconomic research by Guosen Securities indicates that following the U.S. government's announcement of "reciprocal tariffs," the U.S. dollar index has weakened significantly, while global risk aversion has increased, driving up gold prices. The uncertainty in trade has led to a bleak global growth outlook, with commodities generally declining, particularly global pricing varieties experiencing larger drops than domestic ones [1][3]. Trade Relations - As the fourth quarter approaches, China and the U.S. are set to enter a new round of intensive negotiations regarding trade issues. The medium to long-term uncertainty in trade relations between the two countries remains high. A review of the key events from the first round of trade confrontations in April-May this year can provide insights into potential market fluctuations in the next phase [2]. - In April, the Trump administration initiated a trade war by imposing a 34% "reciprocal tariff" on Chinese goods. Following China's response, the U.S. increased tariffs to 125% within a few days. By May, under internal pressure, the U.S. softened its stance and expressed willingness to resolve trade disputes through diplomatic channels, leading to a temporary easing of tensions [2]. Dollar and Commodities - The announcement of "reciprocal tariffs" has led to a significant decline in the U.S. dollar index. Concurrently, global risk aversion has surged, further boosting gold prices. The uncertain trade environment has resulted in a pessimistic global growth outlook, with commodities generally weakening, especially global pricing varieties experiencing more significant declines than domestic ones [3]. - Looking ahead, under the trade conflict, gold prices are more likely to rise while other commodities remain weak. The impacts of trade policy conflicts tend to clear in the short term, potentially leading to overshooting opportunities. It is noteworthy that current trade negotiations are primarily focused on U.S.-China relations, differing from the broader global impact of the April tariff announcements [3]. Bond Market Outlook - The bond market is expected to see a phase of rebound due to fundamental pressures. During the April trade tensions, bond yields fell by 18 basis points. Historical experiences suggest that sudden tariff and sanction events lead to rapid pricing in the bond market. Following the tariff policy announcement, the bond market experienced fluctuations exceeding 5 basis points within two trading days, but the impact diminished significantly as trade sanctions escalated [4][5]. - Looking forward, the probability of a bond market rebound in October appears higher. Economic pressures in July and August suggest that monetary policy may continue to ease. Additionally, the current 10-1 yield spread of 40 basis points is above the historical median, reflecting a relatively neutral economic outlook, with limited upward pressure on long-term yields under stable monetary policy conditions [5].

Trade Conflict Overview - In April, the Trump administration initiated a trade war by imposing a 34% tariff on Chinese goods, which escalated to 125% shortly after[2] - By May 12, a temporary agreement was reached, resulting in the cancellation of 91% of the tariffs imposed by the U.S. and a 90-day suspension of 24% of the tariffs[2] Market Reactions - Following the announcement of tariffs, the U.S. dollar index fell significantly, dropping over 2% within two trading days and reaching a three-year low of 97.92 by the end of April[18] - Gold prices surged during the same period, reflecting increased global risk aversion, while major commodities like copper saw significant declines, with a 6.26% drop shortly after the tariffs were announced[18][19] Bond Market Insights - The bond market experienced a downward trend, with yields falling by 18 basis points (BP) during the trade conflict in April[4] - The 10-year government bond yield decreased to 1.63% after the initial tariff announcements, indicating a strong market reaction to the trade tensions[27] Future Outlook - The bond market is expected to rebound in October, driven by anticipated monetary policy easing due to economic pressures observed in July and August[4] - The current 10-1 year yield spread of 40 BP suggests a neutral economic outlook, indicating limited upward pressure on long-term yields[4] Risk Factors - Potential volatility in overseas markets and uncertainties in international policies pose risks to the economic outlook[4][35]