Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - On Monday, most futures prices of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) declined. The main contract EC2510 fell 0.72%, and the far - month contracts fell about 1%. The latest SCFIS European Line settlement freight rate index dropped 18.7 points from last week, a 0.8% decline. Trump's "reciprocal tariff" measures and China's counter - measures have intensified trade uncertainties. Although the US consumer end shows resilience, inflation has an upward risk. The demand expectation for the Container Shipping Index (European Line) is weak, and the futures price fluctuates greatly. However, the rapid recovery of spot - end price indicators may drive the futures price to rise in the short term. Investors are advised to be cautious and track relevant data [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Futures Market Data - EC main contract closing price is 1421.800, down 10.3; EC second - main contract closing price is 1677.2, down 10.7. The EC2510 - EC2512 spread is - 255.40, up 13.00; the EC2510 - EC2602 spread is - 48.40, up 17.60. The EC contract basis is - 16.50, down. The futures holding position is 51053 hands, down 1323 [1] Spot Market Data - SCFIS (European Line) (weekly) is 2297.86, down 18.70; SCFIS (US West Line) (weekly) is 1130.42, down 153.39. SCFI (Comprehensive Index) (weekly) is 1550.74, down 41.85. Container ship capacity is 1227.97 (ten thousand TEUs), up 0.04. CCFI (Comprehensive Index) (weekly) is 1232.29, down 29.06; CCFI (European Line) (weekly) is 1789.50, up 2.26. The Baltic Dry Index (daily) is 2018.00, down 15.00; the Panamax Freight Index (daily) is 1644.00, up 15.00. The average charter price of Panamax ships is 12235.00, down 128.00; the average charter price of Capesize ships is 27300.00, up 1386.00 [1] Industry News - The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, support key areas, and promote the use of RMB in trade. Trump signed an executive order to impose 10% - 41% reciprocal tariffs on some countries, with the tariffs taking effect on August 7, 2025. Fed理事库格勒 will leave office on August 8, creating uncertainty about the Fed chair appointment [1] Key Data to Follow - August 5, 14:45: France's June industrial output monthly rate; August 5, 17:00: Eurozone's June PPI monthly rate; August 5, 20:30: US June trade balance (in billions of dollars) [1]

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.8.1」 集运指数（欧线）期货周报 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 添加客服 作者：廖宏斌 期货投资咨询证号： Z0020723 联系电话：0595-86778969 业务咨询 目录 1、行情回顾 2、消息回顾与分析 3、图表分析 4、行情展望与策略 周度要点总结 本周集运指数（欧线）期货价格小幅下行，主力合约EC2510收跌6.98%，其余合约收跌2-4%不等。最新SCFIS欧线 结算运价指数为2400.50，较上周回落21.40点，环比下行0.9%，现货指标回落。最新SCFIS欧线结算运价指数为 2316.56，较上周回落83.94点，环比下行3.5%，现货指标持续回落。美国总统特朗普宣布8月1日起对进口半成品铜等 产品征收50%关税。此外，特朗普还签署了行政命令，对巴西加征40%关税，使总关税额达到50%；对来自印度的商品 征收25%的关税。一系列关税措施进一步加剧全球贸易局势不确定性，推高市场对贸易冲突再度升级的预期。7月标普 全球美国PMI录得年内最快增速，Q2 GDP年化增速大幅超出市场预期，加之美联储FOMC会议释放边际转鹰信号，强调 未来关税对于通胀走势的不 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Neutral [5] - Arbitrage: Suspended [6] - Options: short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton [7] Core Viewpoints - The current 50% tariff does not cover refined copper, causing the Comex premium to drop significantly. If the inventory of over 250,000 tons in Comex flows back to the market, it may impact copper prices again. Therefore, a wait - and - see attitude is recommended. However, due to the price - holding sentiment of domestic holders, the possibility of a continuous and significant decline in copper prices is relatively small [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On July 31, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 78,640 yuan/ton and closed at 78,040 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.13% from the previous trading day's close. In the night session, it opened at 78,180 yuan/ton and closed at 78,010 yuan/ton, a 0.55% decrease from the afternoon close [1] Spot Situation - The domestic electrolytic copper spot market showed a tightening trend at the end of the month. The premium of 1 electrolytic copper to the 2508 contract was 140 - 220 yuan/ton, with an average of 180 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous day. The spot price range was 78,460 - 78,670 yuan/ton. It is expected that holders will maintain a price - holding strategy on August 1, and the actual trading activity is expected to improve [2] Important Information Summary - **Macro and Geopolitical**: Trump signed an executive order to modify the reciprocal tariff rates for certain countries. The tariff on Canada will be increased from 25% to 35% starting August 1, 2025. Goods transshipped to avoid the 35% tariff will be subject to a 40% transshipment tariff. The US Treasury Secretary expects to announce Fed nominations by the end of the year, and there will be two vacancies on the Fed Board. China's manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [3] - **Mine End**: The copper production of Anglo American's Quellaveco copper mine in Peru increased slightly in the first half of the year, but the company's total copper production decreased by 13% due to the decline in Chilean production [3] - **Smelting and Import**: Southern Copper's CFO believes that trade conflicts will impact the global economy and the copper industry, but is optimistic about the long - term prospects of copper. Glencore's copper production decreased by 26% in the first half of the year, and it raised its full - year production forecast [4] - **Consumption**: Last week, copper prices fluctuated within a narrow range. Near the end of the month, downstream consumption had limited room for improvement. Due to some processing enterprises' export - rushing actions, market demand was relatively stable, and downstream enterprises mainly made just - in - time purchases [4] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts changed by 1,350 tons to 138,200 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts changed by - 351 tons to 19,622 tons, and the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory on July 28 was 119,300 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons from the previous week [4]

Core Viewpoint - The CFO of Southern Copper Corporation, Raul Jacob, expressed concerns about the impact of trade conflicts on the global economy and the copper industry, but remains optimistic about the long-term prospects for copper [1] Group 1: Industry Outlook - The mining sector anticipates that trade conflicts will negatively affect the global economy and the copper industry [1] - Despite current challenges, the industry is expected to maintain resilience in the long term [1] Group 2: Tariff Implications - Jacob highlighted a significant price gap between the COMEX and LME, indicating a high likelihood of the U.S. imposing tariffs on copper imports [1] - The Trump administration plans to implement a 50% tariff starting Friday, with Peru being a major supplier of refined copper to the U.S. [1] - There is uncertainty regarding the details of the tariffs and their potential impact on the company, as tariff levels on other goods and countries have been fluctuating [1] Group 3: Company Position - Grupo Mexico's chairman, German Larrea, stated that the company is monitoring the potential effects of tariffs on its business [1] - Southern Copper is in a solid position to handle uncertainties related to the trade environment [1]

新加坡金管局：全球和本地经济迄今表现稳健；贸易冲突、金融或地缘政治冲击的再度爆发，将加剧全 球放缓带来的拖累。 ...

Group 1 - The current gold market resembles that of ten years ago, characterized by low volatility and minimal trading activity, with traders feeling increasingly apathetic [1] - Geopolitical risks, trade conflicts, and monetary policy have all been put on hold, leading to a stagnant market environment [1] - Attention is focused on the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data and potential retaliatory tariffs from the Trump administration, which could significantly impact market sentiment [1] Group 2 - The market remains unclear, with the key support level at $3,300 acting as a pivot point for potential price movements, indicating ongoing bullish and bearish battles [2] - Current trading activity shows limited fluctuations, with a critical focus on the $3,305 level as a dividing line for long and short positions [4] - The strategy suggests observing the market without taking significant risks until a clear breakout occurs, particularly below $3,305 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent trade agreement between the US and the EU involves a 15% tariff on most EU exports to the US, which has sparked mixed reactions among European governments, particularly concerning the competitiveness of the automotive industry in Germany [1][4]. Group 1: Agreement Details - The agreement was announced by US President Trump, who stated that the EU would face a 15% tariff on goods exported to the US, which is seen as a compromise to avoid higher tariffs previously threatened by Trump [1][5]. - The EU has committed to purchasing $750 billion worth of US energy products and increasing investments by $60 billion, which are key components of the agreement [1][10]. - The average effective tariff rate for the US is expected to rise from 13.5% to 16% as a result of this agreement, which is lower than the previously anticipated 18% [5]. Group 2: Reactions from European Leaders - German Chancellor Merz expressed that the agreement successfully avoided a trade conflict that could have severely impacted Germany's export-driven economy, although he hopes for further relaxation of transatlantic trade [5][6]. - The Slovak Prime Minister acknowledged the 15% tariff as a reasonable outcome, highlighting the importance of the automotive industry to Slovakia's GDP [6]. - However, there is significant criticism from the German industrial sector, with leaders arguing that the agreement sends a disastrous signal and could have severe negative impacts on Germany's export-oriented industries [8]. Group 3: Concerns and Future Implications - The lack of detailed written agreements raises concerns about the execution and interpretation of the deal, leading to uncertainties for investors and markets [10][11]. - The agreement is viewed as a pragmatic compromise aimed at maintaining economic stability in Europe, but it has also been criticized for potentially undermining European competitiveness [4][7]. - French officials have expressed dissatisfaction with the agreement, suggesting that it reflects a power imbalance between the EU and the US, and have called for measures to counteract perceived US dominance [8].

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the recent trade agreement between the US and the EU, which has been viewed internally within the EU as a "bad deal" despite temporarily stabilizing the global economy [1][5] - The agreement includes a 15% tariff on most EU products exported to the US, which is higher than the EU's initial target of 10% but lower than Trump's initial proposal of 20% [3][5] - The EU is expected to increase its investment in the US by $600 billion and purchase $750 billion worth of US energy products, although the specifics of these investments remain unclear [3][6] Group 2 - There are significant discrepancies in the statements made by US and EU leaders regarding the agreement, particularly concerning pharmaceutical products and steel and aluminum tariffs [3][4] - The financial markets reacted positively to the announcement, with the euro appreciating against the dollar and stock indices rising, indicating a temporary relief from trade conflict uncertainties [4][5] - Analysts express caution, noting that the details of the agreement, such as the specific products affected by tariffs and the implications of the $600 billion investment, could lead to further complications [4][6] Group 3 - The agreement has been criticized within the EU, with leaders expressing dissatisfaction over the concessions made, particularly the 15% tariff which is significantly higher than previous rates [5][6] - The potential economic impact of the tariffs on the EU's GDP is under scrutiny, with estimates suggesting a 0.4% impact from a 10% tariff, and the new agreement may lead to a reassessment of these figures [6][7] - The trade dynamics may shift as the US could use the 15% tariff as a template for negotiations with other countries, potentially leading to a broader trade strategy that favors the US [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trade agreement between the United States and the European Union, highlighting the key terms and implications for both economies [2][4]. Summary by Sections Trade Agreement Details - The U.S. will impose a 15% tariff on most EU exports, including automobiles, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals, which is significantly lower than the previously threatened 30% tariff [5][6]. - The EU has agreed to invest an additional $600 billion in the U.S. and purchase $750 billion worth of U.S. energy products [2][4]. Market Reactions - Following the announcement, the euro appreciated against the dollar, indicating a positive market response and reduced uncertainty regarding trade conflicts [9][10]. - Investors view the agreement as a stabilizing factor for business operations and market sentiment [10]. Impact on Trade - The 15% tariff is expected to increase costs for EU exports to the U.S., potentially reducing the competitiveness of European products, particularly in the automotive sector [12][13]. - The agreement aims to reduce the U.S. trade deficit with the EU, which was $235.6 billion in 2024, by increasing U.S. exports and capital inflow from Europe [14][15]. Economic Implications - The agreement may lead to higher import costs for U.S. consumers and businesses, contributing to upward pressure on domestic prices and inflation [16]. - The U.S. defense industry is expected to benefit from increased sales of military equipment to Europe, potentially boosting employment and investment in related sectors [15]. Reactions from Stakeholders - German Chancellor Merz expressed relief that the agreement avoided a trade conflict that could have severely impacted Germany's export-driven economy [18]. - However, some European officials criticized the agreement as unbalanced and detrimental to EU interests, suggesting a need for diversification away from reliance on the U.S. market [20][21].

Core Viewpoint - The EU is preparing a robust countermeasure strategy as the deadline for trade negotiations with the US approaches, which could escalate transatlantic trade disputes and significantly impact both economies [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Impact of Tariffs - Current US tariffs of approximately 10% on EU goods have resulted in about a 0.4% GDP loss for the EU [2]. - If a 15% tariff agreement is reached, this loss is expected to rise slightly to 0.5% [2]. - In the worst-case scenario, if the US imposes a 30% punitive tariff, the effective average tax rate would increase to about 21%, leading to a GDP decline of 0.7% for the EU [2]. Group 2: EU's Two-Step Retaliation Plan - The EU's retaliation strategy consists of two phases: the first involves imposing tariffs on a total of €930 billion worth of US imports, potentially at rates as high as 30% [3]. - The second phase includes the potential activation of the Anti-Coercion Instrument (ACI), targeting US financial and digital services [3]. Group 3: Anti-Coercion Instrument (ACI) - The ACI, established in November 2023, serves as a trade "defensive weapon" aimed at deterring third countries from exerting economic pressure on the EU [4][5]. - Unlike traditional trade dispute tools, the ACI allows for broader measures, including restrictions on foreign direct investment and access to financial markets [4]. Group 4: Risks of ACI Activation - Utilizing the ACI against US financial and digital services could lead to "significant self-harm" for the EU, given its reliance on US technology service imports [6]. - Any US countermeasures in response to ACI activation could severely disrupt European business activities [6].