1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1 Stock Index Strategy - A-share broad-based indices had positive weekly gains, with the Science and Technology Innovation 50 having the largest cumulative increase of 4.63% and the CSI 500 rising over 3%. The US and the EU reached a trade agreement, and the US June durable goods orders had a sharp decline. China's June industrial enterprise profits showed a narrowing decline, and the CSRC aimed to consolidate the market. Considering the market sentiment cooling and high technical indicators, the stock index's slow bull trend remains unchanged, but there may be a near-term correction, so a defensive wait-and-see approach is advisable [12]. 2.2 Treasury Bond Strategy - In the bond market, funds are flowing out, and with macro events concentrated at the end of July and early August, the bond market may experience an adjustment in a volatile pattern. Whether to participate on the left side or wait for the release of position pressure depends on the investor's position, duration, and tolerance. It is recommended to focus on taking profits [13]. 2.3 PMI - In June, the manufacturing PMI rose to 49.7%, better than expected, with both supply and demand improving. However, there were structural differences, such as small enterprises' contraction intensifying and the high-tech manufacturing industry remaining flat. Only 7 out of 15 sub - industries had better sentiment than in May [20]. 2.4 Inflation - In May 2025, the CPI had a slight year - on - year decline, and the PPI also decreased year - on - year. The current price situation shows "food differentiation and services stronger than goods," and the core inflation momentum is still insufficient. The decline in PPI is affected by international and domestic factors, but there are also positive changes in some areas [29][32]. 2.5 Industrial Enterprise Profitability - In May, the year - on - year growth rate of profits of industrial enterprises above designated size declined, mainly due to the decline in volume, price, and profit margin, with the profit margin having the most significant impact. Enterprises may adopt a strategy of reducing prices to clear inventory [35]. 2.6 Fiscal Situation - From January to May, the national general public budget revenue decreased slightly year - on - year, while the expenditure increased. The tax revenue recovery margin slowed down, and the real - estate - related tax drag increased. The fiscal expenditure rhythm slowed down marginally, and the government fund revenue decline widened while the expenditure slowed down [38][41]. 2.7 Industrial Added Value - In May, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value declined, while the service industry added value increased. The production - sales imbalance persists, and export - related production is weak. The GDP growth rate in the second quarter is expected to exceed 5% [44]. 2.8 Fixed - Asset Investment - From January to May, the year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment declined. Investment in infrastructure, manufacturing, and real estate all decreased. Although the real - estate physical volume was not weak this month, the real - estate investment was still under pressure in terms of funds [47]. 2.9 Social Retail Sales - In May, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales increased, mainly driven by the early start of the 618 promotion and the strong performance of the May Day holiday in driving offline consumption [50]. 2.10 Social Financing - In May, the new social financing was 2.3 trillion yuan, with government bonds being the main support. Although the social financing growth rate is expected to rise in the second and third quarters, there is still pressure for it to rise and then fall in the second half of the year [53]. 2.11 Import and Export - In May, China's exports and imports continued to grow, with exports performing well. The central region led the national foreign trade growth. Due to the Sino - US trade relationship and the leading growth rate of processing trade, exports are expected to maintain resilient growth in June [59]. 2.12 US Non - Farm Payrolls - In May 2025, the US labor market showed resilience, with more new jobs than expected. However, there were internal structural differences. The service industry had employment growth, while the commodity production sector was weak. The wage growth exceeded expectations, strengthening inflation concerns and giving the Fed more reason to stay on the sidelines [62][65]. 2.13 US CPI - In May, the US CPI and core CPI increased year - on - year as expected. The inflation pressure on core commodities and services was controllable. The Fed maintained the interest rate target range and emphasized high uncertainty, so it tended to stay on the sidelines [68]. 2.14 US PMI - In June, the US Markit manufacturing PMI was stable at 52, and the service industry PMI was slightly lower. The manufacturing growth was mainly driven by inventory, and the inflation pressure increased significantly. The current US economy shows a "weak expansion + high inflation" characteristic, and the growth momentum may further weaken [71]. 3. Summaries According to the Catalog 3.1 Financial Futures Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Stock Index Strategy - **Strategy Outlook**: Adopt a defensive wait - and - see approach [11]. - **Trend Review**: A - share broad - based indices had positive weekly gains [12]. - **Technical Analysis**: The RSI indicator shows a potential correction risk for the market index [12]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bond Strategy - **Strategy Outlook**: Focus on taking profits [13]. - **Trend Review**: The bond market was volatile, and the treasury bond futures showed a downward trend [13]. - **Technical Analysis**: The KDJ indicator shows that the T main contract may operate weakly in a volatile manner [13]. 3.2 Key Data Tracking 3.2.1 PMI - In June, the manufacturing PMI rose, with both supply and demand improving. However, there were structural differences among different enterprise sizes, industries, and sub - industries [20]. - The price and inventory situation also showed different characteristics at the industry level, with some industries replenishing inventory and others reducing inventory through price cuts [23]. - The non - manufacturing PMI rose, mainly due to the increase in the construction industry PMI, while the service industry PMI declined [26]. 3.2.2 Inflation - In May 2025, the CPI had a slight year - on - year decline, with food price differentiation and service prices being more resilient. The PPI decreased year - on - year, mainly affected by international and domestic factors, but there were positive changes in some areas [29][32]. 3.2.3 Profitability of Industrial Enterprises above Designated Size - In May, the year - on - year growth rate of profits declined, mainly due to the decline in volume, price, and profit margin. Enterprises may be adopting a strategy of reducing prices to clear inventory [35]. 3.2.4 Fiscal - From January to May, the national general public budget revenue decreased slightly year - on - year, and the expenditure increased. The tax revenue recovery margin slowed down, and the real - estate - related tax drag increased. The fiscal expenditure rhythm slowed down marginally, and the government fund revenue decline widened while the expenditure slowed down [38][41]. 3.2.5 Industrial Added Value - In May, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value declined, while the service industry added value increased. The production - sales imbalance persisted, and export - related production was weak [44]. 3.2.6 Fixed - Asset Investment - From January to May, the year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment declined. Investment in infrastructure, manufacturing, and real estate all decreased. Although the real - estate physical volume was not weak this month, the real - estate investment was still under pressure in terms of funds [47]. 3.2.7 Social Retail Sales - In May, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales increased, mainly driven by the early start of the 618 promotion and the strong performance of the May Day holiday in driving offline consumption [50]. 3.2.8 Social Financing - In May, the new social financing was 2.3 trillion yuan, with government bonds being the main support. The social financing growth rate is expected to rise in the second and third quarters but may face pressure to rise and then fall in the second half of the year [53]. 3.2.9 Import and Export - In May, China's exports and imports continued to grow, with exports performing well. The central region led the national foreign trade growth. Exports are expected to maintain resilient growth in June [59]. 3.2.10 US Non - Farm Payrolls - In May 2025, the US labor market showed resilience, with more new jobs than expected. There were internal structural differences, and wage growth exceeded expectations, strengthening inflation concerns [62][65]. 3.2.11 US CPI - In May, the US CPI and core CPI increased year - on - year as expected. The inflation pressure on core commodities and services was controllable, and the Fed tended to stay on the sidelines [68]. 3.2.12 US PMI - In June, the US Markit manufacturing PMI was stable at 52, and the service industry PMI was slightly lower. The manufacturing growth was mainly driven by inventory, and the inflation pressure increased significantly [71]. 3.2.13 Weekly Focus - There are important economic indicators and events to be released in the coming week, including the US GDP, FOMC interest rate decision, and China's official and Caixin manufacturing PMIs [73].

Economic Overview - The GDP growth rate for Q2 has slightly decreased from 5.4% in Q1 to 5.2%, indicating a stable yet high economic performance [1] - Nominal GDP growth has dropped from 4.6% in Q1 to 3.9% in Q2, reflecting weaker price levels [1] Investment and Consumption Trends - Fixed asset investment growth fell to -0.1% in June from 2.7% in May, with declines in infrastructure and manufacturing investments [2] - Real estate investment growth decreased by 12.9% year-on-year in June, while real estate sales area also saw a decline of 5.5% [2] - Retail sales growth for the first half of the year was around 5%, but June saw a drop to 4.8% from 6.4% in May, partly due to earlier consumption during the "618" shopping festival [2] Trade Performance - Export growth in June was strong at 5.8% year-on-year, surpassing expectations, while imports grew by 1.1% [3] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs, particularly from the U.S., may impact future export performance [3][4] U.S. Economic Impact - The U.S. experienced significant inventory accumulation in the first half of the year, which could lead to reduced import demand if domestic consumption weakens [4] - If U.S. consumer demand does not keep pace with import growth, it may result in inventory buildup and subsequent import declines [4] Policy and Economic Projections - The GDP growth target for the year remains at 5%, with a potential slowdown in the second half projected at around 4.7% [4] - The likelihood of strong policy stimulus in the second half is considered low, suggesting a more challenging economic environment [5] Investment Recommendations - The ten-year government bond ETF (511260) is highlighted as a favorable investment option due to its low fees and higher coupon rates compared to shorter-duration bonds [5]

Market Influence - Over a decade ago, Chinese economic indicators held little sway in overseas investment decisions, with the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) being the primary exception [1] - Currently, the focus on China's economic data, including CPI, M2, imports/exports, and unemployment rate, is second only to that of the United States [1]

Consumption - Consumer goods consumption remains stable, with automotive sales showing a decline compared to the previous week, and a year-on-year growth rate also decreasing[6] - Service consumption is affected by weather conditions, with travel, cinema, and amusement park attendance showing weak performance[6] - Food and beverage prices have rebounded, but the year-on-year decline in agricultural product prices is still expanding[6] Investment - Special bond issuance accelerated, with a total of 2.4 trillion yuan issued by July 12, 2025, and 228.29 billion yuan in the first two weeks of July[16] - New housing sales in 30 cities have seen a seasonal decline, with a year-on-year drop narrowing from 22.2% to 20.0%[16] - The land market is cooling, with land transaction area decreasing and premium rates dropping to 4.88%[16] Trade - Import growth from South Korea to China has slowed to 2.2%, while Vietnam's export growth remains strong at 19.3%[22] - Port operations are slowing down, with a decline in the number of ships and cargo throughput at major ports[22] - Export freight rates have decreased by 2.2% compared to the previous week[22] Production - Overall production is stable, with electricity consumption rising due to high temperatures, and traditional industries like steel and petrochemicals performing steadily[28] - The photovoltaic sector shows marginal recovery, while the automotive industry also experiences slight improvements[28] Inventory - Construction materials are undergoing destocking, with coal inventories at ports decreasing and remaining at average levels for the same period[41] - The PTA industry chain shows a divergence in inventory trends, with upstream destocking and downstream restocking continuing[41] Prices - Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) are both showing marginal increases, with transportation and communication being major contributors to price rises[44] - Prices of pork and vegetables have rebounded, while logistics costs continue to decline[44] Liquidity - The US dollar index has risen by 89 basis points, influenced by strong US employment data, with the dollar to yuan exchange rate increasing from 7.165 to 7.171[46] - Funding rates have slightly increased, with R007 and DR007 rising by 2 and 5 basis points respectively[46]

Overview - The core viewpoint of the article is that China's economy is facing challenges from tariffs and low demand, but is showing signs of stabilization with a projected GDP growth rate of 5.3% for the first half of the year, and a 5.2% growth in Q2, indicating a slight decline from Q1 [1][4]. Economic Performance - In Q2, the supply-demand imbalance deepened, with external demand growth significantly outpacing domestic production and consumption. Exports grew by 7.4% year-on-year, while retail sales and investment grew by 5.4% and 1.8%, respectively [4][6]. - The nominal GDP growth rate fell to 3.9%, with the actual GDP growth rate exceeding it by 1.3 percentage points, indicating increasing pressure from low prices [6][8]. - Economic data in June showed a slowdown in growth across most sectors compared to April and May, with industrial value-added growth rising to 6.8% but retail sales growth declining to 4.8% [9][10]. Consumption Trends - Retail sales growth in June was 4.8%, below market expectations, primarily due to a sharp decline in restaurant consumption, which dropped by 5 percentage points to 0.9% [11][12]. - Non-subsidized goods saw a significant decline in growth, while subsidized categories like home appliances experienced a nearly 20% drop in growth, reflecting weakened consumer demand [11][12]. - The outlook for Q3 suggests a potential increase in consumption growth due to a lower base effect, but consumer confidence remains fragile [16]. Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment growth slowed to 2.8% in June, with infrastructure and manufacturing investments declining by 1.5 and 1 percentage points, respectively [17][18]. - Real estate investment continued to decline, with sales area and amount dropping by 5.5% and 10.8%, respectively, indicating ongoing pressure in the property market [18][19]. - Infrastructure investment growth reached its lowest levels of the year, with a significant drop in fiscal revenue impacting project financing [21][23]. Trade and Exports - In June, both export and import growth rates increased, with a trade surplus of $114.77 billion, up 16% year-on-year. Exports to the U.S. saw a notable recovery, with a decline of only 16.1% compared to a previous drop of 34.5% [26][27]. - The overall trade environment remains resilient, although there are concerns about future export growth as the "rush to export" effect diminishes [26]. Industrial Production - Industrial production accelerated in June, with a year-on-year growth of 6.8%, supported by easing U.S.-China tariffs and the effectiveness of new policies [27][28]. - Despite the growth, the industrial sales rate declined to 94.3%, indicating increased competitive pressure on enterprises [27]. Inflation and Price Pressure - Inflation showed divergence, with CPI rising to 0.1% after four months of negative growth, while PPI fell to -3.6%, reflecting significant price pressures in various sectors [32][33]. - The outlook for inflation remains challenging, with potential for a slow recovery in prices due to ongoing supply-demand imbalances [32]. Future Outlook - The economic outlook for Q3 indicates challenges from insufficient effective demand and low price pressures, but GDP growth may still be supported by policy measures and a lower base effect [34].

Economic Overview - The preliminary GDP for the first half of 2025 is 66,053.6 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 5.3% at constant prices [2] - The industrial added value for large-scale industries increased by 6.4% year-on-year in the first half, with a 6.8% growth in June [5] Investment and Consumption - National fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 24,865.4 billion yuan in the first half, marking a year-on-year increase of 2.8% [8] - The total retail sales of consumer goods amounted to 24,545.8 billion yuan in the first half, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.0%, with a 4.8% increase in June [11] Price Indices - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.1% year-on-year in the first half, with a slight increase of 0.1% in June [15] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 2.8% year-on-year in the first half, with a 3.6% decline in June [16] Financial Indicators - The total social financing scale increased by 22.83 trillion yuan in the first half, which is 4.74 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [19] - New RMB loans added up to 12.92 trillion yuan in the first half [20] - The broad money supply (M2) reached 330.29 trillion yuan at the end of June, showing a year-on-year growth of 8.3% [21] Trade Performance - The total import and export value of goods reached 21.79 trillion yuan in the first half, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.9% [25]

海关总署：今年上半年，中国对美国进出口总值同比下降9.3%。以人民币计价对美国出口同比下降9.9%，自美国进口下降7.7%。近期中美贸易有所回升。目前中美双方团队正在加紧落实伦敦框架有关成果。希望美国继续同中方相向而行。外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):海关总署：中国6月的进出口规模3.85万亿元，增长5.2%，规模是历史上月度进出口的第二高位。其中，出口2.34万亿元，增长7.2%，增长比较快的有，电子元件、船舶等；进口1.51万亿元，增长2.3%，增长比较快的有，自动数据处理设备的零附件、干鲜瓜果等。 ...

海关总署：中国6月的进出口规模3.85万亿元，增长5.2%，规模是历史上月度进出口的第二高位。其中，出口2.34万亿元，增长7.2%，增长比较快的有，电子元件、船舶等；进口1.51万亿元，增长2.3%，增长比较快的有，自动数据处理设备的零附件、干鲜瓜果等。外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):海关总署：今年上半年，中国货物贸易进出口21.79万亿元，同比增长2.9%。其中，出口13万亿元，历史同期首次突破13万亿元，增长7.2%；进口8.79万亿元，下降2.7%。进入6月份，进出口、出口、进口同比全部实现正增长，且增速都在回升。 ...

Trade Performance - China's total goods trade (imports and exports) reached 21.79 trillion yuan, a 2.9% year-over-year increase [1] - Exports hit a record high of 13 trillion yuan, up 7.2% year-over-year [1] - Imports totaled 8.79 trillion yuan, a 2.7% year-over-year decrease [1] Growth Trend - In June, imports and exports all achieved positive year-over-year growth, with accelerating growth rates [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, based on the industry investment rating system, "Recommend" indicates that the industry index is expected to rise more than 5% above the benchmark index in the next 3 - 6 months, "Neutral" means the industry index is expected to move within -5% to 5% relative to the benchmark index in the same period, and "Avoid" suggests the industry index is expected to fall more than 5% below the benchmark index [58][62]. 2. Core Views of the Report In the fourth week of June, the real estate sales entered the end - of - quarter sprint stage, investment and construction demand remained weak, port container throughput increased marginally, and overall economic momentum was slightly stronger than the previous week. In terms of inflation, the decline in pork prices widened while the decline in food prices narrowed. For exports, the increase in CCFI narrowed, SCFI continued to fall, and North American route freight rates continued to decline. In industry, the operating rates mostly rebounded, coal prices rose slightly due to high - temperature weather in summer, and industrial product prices mostly continued to decline. In investment, cement demand was suppressed by rainfall and floods in the South, leading to an expanded decline in cement prices. Regarding real estate, near the end of the quarter, both new and second - hand housing sales increased seasonally but were weaker than the same period last year. For the bond market, the year - on - year increase in port containers in June narrowed and was weaker than the performance in April - May. The "rush to export" momentum weakened marginally, and the export growth rate in June might decline. With the decline in the profit and revenue growth rates of industrial enterprises in May, the necessity of boosting domestic demand increased relatively. The bond market might enter a policy waiting period in July, focusing on the introduction of incremental policies around the Politburo meeting in July [4][39][40]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Inflation - related: Food Price Decline Narrows - The average wholesale price of pork in the country decreased by 0.33% week - on - week, and the decline widened. Vegetable prices increased by 0.1% week - on - week, while fruit prices decreased by 2.6% week - on - week. The 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices and the wholesale price index of basket products decreased by 0.12% and 0.14% respectively week - on - week, and the decline in food prices narrowed [10]. 3.2 Import and Export - related: SCFI Index Continues to Decline - The overall Chinese export container shipping market was stable, but the freight rates of ocean routes showed differentiation. The CCFI index increased by 2.0% week - on - week, while the SCFI decreased by 0.4% week - on - week and continued to weaken. In North America, transport demand remained stable, and market freight rates continued to decline. From June 16th to 22nd, port container throughput and cargo throughput increased by 5.9% and 5.6% week - on - week respectively, ending the decline. However, the year - on - year average of single - week data since June was 2.2% and 0.8% respectively, significantly narrowing compared with May [12]. 3.3 Industry - related: Operating Rates Mostly Rebound, Coal Prices Rise Slightly - The price of thermal coal increased marginally. The price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port increased by 1.2% week - on - week. Due to high - temperature weather, electricity consumption by residents increased, and downstream power plant loads rose significantly, leading to an increase in coal consumption. At the end of the month, production cuts in coal - producing areas increased, supply tightened, and the peak coal - using season began, driving up coal prices. - The decline in rebar prices widened. The spot price of rebar decreased by 0.73% week - on - week. In the off - season, supply increased while demand was weak, and steel prices remained weak. - Copper prices increased marginally. The average prices of Yangtze River Non - ferrous copper and LME copper increased by 0.3% and 1.0% respectively week - on - week. The spot market was in an off - season trading situation, and downstream restocking was mainly for rigid demand, limiting the elasticity of copper prices. - The spot trading of glass was dull. The overall price remained in a weak consolidation state, and downstream enterprises mainly focused on digesting inventory [19][24]. 3.4 Investment - related: Real Estate Sales Enter the End - of - Quarter Sprint - The decline in cement prices slightly expanded. The weekly average of the cement price index decreased by 1.7% week - on - week. Construction demand was weakened by rainfall in the South and floods in some areas, and cement prices generally declined. - New home sales in 30 cities continued to rise. From June 20th to 26th, the transaction area of new homes in 30 cities was 2554,000 square meters, a 41.3% week - on - week increase. Developers concentrated on launching new projects in late June, and new home sales entered the end - of - quarter sprint stage. - Second - hand housing transactions increased seasonally but were weaker than the same period last year. From June 20th to 26th, the transaction area of second - hand housing in 17 cities was 2208,000 square meters, a 5.3% week - on - week increase [28][34]. 3.5 Consumption: Supply Concerns Eased, Crude Oil Prices Declined - From June 1st to 22nd, the year - on - year increase in passenger car retail sales expanded. The year - on - year increase was 24% (the full - month year - on - year increase in May was 13%), and it increased by 8% compared with the previous month. From June 16th to 22nd, the year - on - year and week - on - week increases were 30% and 42% respectively, continuing to strengthen compared with the previous week. - Crude oil prices declined significantly. As of Friday, Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil prices decreased by 12.0% and 11.3% respectively week - on - week. The cease - fire agreement between Israel and Iran eased the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, and market concerns about the possible blockade of the Strait of Hormuz were significantly alleviated, suppressing oil prices [35].