Group 1: Service Trade Performance - In Q1 2025, China's service trade totalled 19,741.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.7% [3] - Service exports reached 8,351.5 billion yuan, growing by 12.2%, while imports were 11,390.3 billion yuan, increasing by 6.2% [3] - The service trade deficit was 3,038.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 244.6 billion yuan compared to the same period last year [3] - Knowledge-intensive service trade grew to 7,524.9 billion yuan, up 2.6%, with significant contributions from business services and telecommunications [3] - Travel services saw the highest growth, with total imports and exports reaching 5,849 billion yuan, a 21.8% increase, and exports surged by 97.5% [3] Group 2: Manufacturing PMI Analysis - In April 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity [5] - The production index was at 49.8%, reflecting a slight slowdown in manufacturing production [6] - The new orders index fell to 49.2%, suggesting a decrease in market demand for manufactured goods [7] - The raw materials inventory index dropped to 47.0%, indicating a reduction in the inventory levels of key raw materials [8] - The employment index was at 47.9%, showing a decline in employment levels within the manufacturing sector [9] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing PMI Insights - The non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.4% in April 2025, down 0.4 percentage points but still indicating expansion [10] - The construction sector's business activity index was 51.9%, while the services sector's index was 50.1%, both showing a decline from the previous month [10] - The new orders index for non-manufacturing fell to 44.9%, indicating a drop in market demand [10] - The input prices index was at 47.8%, suggesting a decrease in the overall price level of inputs used in non-manufacturing activities [11] - The business activity expectations index remained optimistic at 56.0%, despite a slight decline [11] Group 4: Comprehensive PMI Overview - The comprehensive PMI output index was 50.2% in April 2025, down 1.2 percentage points but still above the critical point, indicating continued expansion in production activities [13]

中游：1）化工：PTA开工率回升；PX开工率近期回落；聚酯、尿素开工率处今年高位。2）基建：沥青开工率来 到近三年低位。 关注5月关税战对上游原材料的影响 中观事件总览 生产行业：4月制造业PMI回落。 1）4月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.0%，比上月下降1.5个百分点，制 造业景气水平有所回落。从企业规模看，大、中、小型企业PMI分别为49.2%、48.8%和48.7%，比上月下降2.0、1.1 和0.9个百分点，均低于临界点。 服务行业：五一假期旅游消费增长较多。 1）据工信部，一季度，我国规模以上互联网和相关服务企业完成互联 网业务收入4118亿元，同比增长1.4%；规模以上互联网企业研发经费增速加快，共投入研发经费204.5亿元，同比 增长4.6%。2）据文化和旅游部数据中心测算，假期5天全国国内出游3.14亿人次，同比增长6.4%；国内游客出游 总花费1802.69亿元，同比增长8.0%。 数据来源：央视新闻，iFind，华泰期货研究院 行业总览 宏观日报 | 2025-05-07 上游：1）能源：国际油价假期受关税影响回落较多。2）有色：铜、锌、镍受关税影响价格震荡。3）建材：水泥、 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The report expects treasury bond futures to fluctuate strongly in the short term as the expectation of macro - policy intensification is rising and the domestic interest - rate cut expectation is approaching. The 4 - month manufacturing PMI data decline indicates that subsequent growth - stabilizing policies will gradually increase, and with the recent appreciation pressure on the RMB, the conditions for an interest - rate cut are relatively sufficient, despite the reduced necessity for a rate cut due to strong travel data during the May Day holiday and uncertain overseas factors [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2506 variety, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "oscillation with an upward bias", and the reference view is "range oscillation". The core logic is the weakening of the manufacturing PMI and the increasing expectation of an interest - rate cut [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price and Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, and TS. The intraday view is "oscillation with an upward bias", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "range oscillation". The core logic is that treasury bond futures oscillated narrowly yesterday. Strong travel data during the May Day holiday showed strong macro - economic resilience, reducing the necessity for an interest - rate cut. Overseas tariff war disturbances have weakened marginally, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is still unclear, which disturbs the central bank's interest - rate cut expectation. However, the weakening of the April manufacturing PMI data indicates that subsequent growth - stabilizing policies will increase, and with the RMB appreciation pressure, the conditions for an interest - rate cut are sufficient [4].

中国香港4月标普全球制造业PMI 48.3，前值48.3。 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The overall zinc production will increase due to the rise in zinc ore imports, continuous increase in zinc ore processing fees, significant increase in sulfuric acid prices, further repair of smelter profits, increased production enthusiasm, and the recovery of some overhauled and shut - down capacities. The import of refined zinc is expected to decline significantly as the import window closes and import losses widen. On the demand side, the demand in the traditional peak season is gradually picking up, the downstream purchasing atmosphere at low prices has improved, the domestic inventory has decreased significantly and entered the traditional destocking cycle, and overseas destocking continues. The terminal real estate has marginally improved but still drags on demand. Technically, with an increase in positions and a break below the MA10 support, the zinc price is expected to fluctuate and adjust. It is recommended to wait and see for now [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract is 22,355 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan; the 06 - 07 contract spread of Shanghai Zinc is 280 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; the LME three - month zinc quotation is 2,607.5 dollars/ton, up 30 dollars; the total position of Shanghai Zinc is 215,039 lots, up 12,602 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Zinc is - 1,830 lots, down 2,385 lots; the Shanghai Zinc warehouse receipts are 2,252 tons, down 102 tons; the SHFE inventory is 48,477 tons, down 2,901 tons; the LME inventory is 172,925 tons, down 975 tons; the spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,860 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,710 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan [3] 现货市场 - The basis of the ZN main contract is 505 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 37.09 dollars/ton, down 0.2 dollars; the arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 17,780 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16,300 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, down 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, up 10,400 tons; the global zinc mine production of ILZSG is 1,007,500 tons, down 4,300 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 615,000 tons, up 18,000 tons; the zinc ore import volume is 455,900 tons, up 124,900 tons [3] Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 35,156.02 tons, down 22,615.39 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 483.88 tons, up 266.83 tons; the social zinc inventory is 71,000 tons, down 1,900 tons [3] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the monthly sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons; the monthly new housing construction area is 129.9646 million square meters, up 63.8246 million square meters; the monthly housing completion area is 130.6027 million square meters, up 42.9606 million square meters; the monthly automobile production is 3.0446 million vehicles, down 454,000 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3] Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option for zinc is 18.84%, up 1.06%; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option for zinc is 18.84%, up 1.05%; the 20 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option is 18.19%, up 0.04%; the 60 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option is 16.89%, down 0.37% [3] Industry News - In April, the US non - farm payrolls increased by 177,000, with an expected increase of 130,000, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.2%. The final value of the eurozone manufacturing PMI in April was 49, higher than the expected 48.7 and the initial value of 48.7; the final value of the French manufacturing PMI in April was 48.7, the highest since January 2023; the final value of the German manufacturing PMI in April was 48.4, the highest since August 2022. In April, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI and the composite PMI were 50.4% and 50.2% respectively, remaining in the expansion range [3]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is an aluminum industry daily report dated May 6, 2025, written by Wang Fuhui [1][2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - The alumina main contract oscillates weakly, with increasing open interest, spot premium, and strengthening basis. Its fundamentals may be in a stage of slightly shrinking supply and stable - to - increasing demand. It is recommended to trade with a light position with a weak - oscillation strategy [2] - The Shanghai aluminum main contract oscillates weakly, with decreasing open interest, spot premium, and weakening basis. The electrolytic aluminum market is entering a stage of synchronous growth in supply and demand and benign inventory digestion. It is recommended to trade with a light position with an oscillation strategy [2] Group 4: Market Data Summary Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 19,785 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract is 2,675 yuan/ton, down 54 yuan [2] - The LME aluminum three - month quote is 2,431.50 US dollars/ton, up 15.50 US dollars; the LME aluminum inventory is 411,575 tons, down 2,000 tons [2] Spot Market - The Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum price is 19,850 yuan/ton; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum price is 20,090 yuan/ton, down 270 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The alumina production is 747.52 million tons, down 3.23 million tons; the demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) is 723.72 million tons, up 76.70 million tons [2] Industry Situation - The total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum is 4,517.20 million tons, unchanged; the production of aluminum products is 598.17 million tons, down 12.49 million tons [2] Downstream and Application - The production of automobiles is 3.0446 million vehicles, down 0.454 million vehicles; the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products is 51 million tons, up 14 million tons [2] Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum is 18.20%, up 0.05%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum is 14.36%, up 0.06% [2] Group 5: Industry News - In April, the US employment growth was strong, with the unemployment rate remaining stable. The non - farm payrolls increased by 177,000, higher than the expected 130,000, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.2% [2] - The Ministry of Finance plans to increase the deficit rate to 4% this year, with a deficit scale of 5.66 trillion yuan [2] - The eurozone's April manufacturing PMI was 49, higher than the expected 48.7 [2] - The "May Day" holiday saw a consumer boom in the "trade - in" policy. New energy vehicle sales in April were strong, with significant year - on - year growth for many brands [2] - In April, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, but high - tech manufacturing and related industries continued to expand [2]

美国供应管理协会（ISM）最新公布的服务业PMI（采购经理指数）出乎意料上升，从3月时的九个月 低位50.8点，上升至4月份的51.6点，远超市场预期的50.6点。该指数读数在50点以上，反映经济活动扩 张，反之则意味着经济活动收缩。 4月份的服务业PMI达到51.6点的水平，着实让市场喜出望外，美股三大指数原本低开低走，在公布服 务业PMI后反弹，但是回味过后，投资者的忧虑并没有消散，美股收盘前续跌。以反映科技股表现的纳 斯达克指数（IXIC.US）为例，低开后持续上下波动，午后公布服务业PMI后一度走高，但是尾盘急速 走低，收盘跌133.49点，或0.74%，报17,844.24点。 这项数据有何问题？ 本周中后期美联储议息，市场普遍预期将维持利率不变，这或也是关税阴霾下，市场对于美联储最后一 次把握比较大的预测，即便如此，利率仍走高，反映资金需要更高的风险收益补偿。 美元指数再跌破100 从服务业PMI的细分领域来看，新订单和存货指数均表现良好，分别达到52.3点和53.4点，显示出增长 加快的信号，同时商业活动仍处于扩张区间，为53.7点。但值得注意的是，服务业就业继续处于收缩水 平，报49点，而价格 ...

| 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2506 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏强 | 区间震荡 | 制造业 PMI 走弱，降息预期升温 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 5 月 6 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：区间震荡 核心逻辑：上周三国债期货继续窄幅震荡整理。上周三统计局公布了 4 月制造业 PMI 数据为 49.0%， 比上月下降 1.5 个百分点，回落至收缩区间。这 ...

截至2025年5月6日 10:27，公司债ETF(511030)多空胶着，最新报价105.51元。拉长时间看，截至2025年4月30日，公司债ETF近半年累计上涨1.16%。 流动性方面，公司债ETF盘中换手0.33%，成交4435.83万元。拉长时间看，截至4月30日，公司债ETF近1月日均成交17.48亿元。 规模方面，公司债ETF最新规模达133.53亿元，创近1年新高。 份额方面，公司债ETF最新份额达1.27亿份，创近1月新高。 消息面上，4月制造业PMI降至49.0%，为2021年以来四月份的第二低。4月制造业PMI容易季节性回落，今年4月制造业PMI环比降幅明显好于2022年4月及 2020年2月，反映美国高关税对中国经济的影响程度可能明显好于疫情。 机构认为，未来债市需要关注中美关税谈判的进展。倘若未来半年中美达成协议将关税降至年初水平，年内10Y国债收益率高点仍可能到1.9%，2025年经济 仍有望企稳。由于关税谈判艰难，短期或难谈成，我们预计债市二季度震荡。 浙商证券认为近期债市调整仍将持续，但鉴于基本面无明确利空，货币宽松基调不变，建议按利率底部区间震荡思路交易。 流动性方面，国债ETF ...

Group 1 - The "Private Economy Promotion Law" was passed, marking the first foundational law specifically for the development of the private economy in China, effective from May 20, 2025. It addresses key concerns such as "fair competition," "investment and financing promotion," "technological innovation," "business regulation," "service guarantee," and "rights protection" for private enterprises [1] Group 2 - The Ministry of Commerce noted that the U.S. has expressed willingness to negotiate on tariff issues, and China is currently evaluating this situation [2] Group 3 - A new proactive fiscal policy is set to be introduced in 2024, including a one-time increase of 6 trillion yuan in local special bond limits to replace hidden debts, issuance of special government bonds to support state-owned banks, and measures to stabilize the real estate market [3] Group 4 - In April, the manufacturing PMI fell to 49.0%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, while the non-manufacturing PMI remained in the expansion zone at 50.4% [4] Group 5 - The U.S. President announced a 100% tariff on all films produced abroad entering the U.S., indicating a significant trade policy shift [5] Group 6 - U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 177,000 in April, exceeding market expectations, while the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%. This led to a decrease in market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve [6] Group 7 - Global risk assets saw a comprehensive rise, with the Hang Seng Tech Index leading with a 3.1% increase, indicating a recovery trend in Chinese assets [7] Group 8 - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority intervened by purchasing 46.539 billion HKD in U.S. dollars to maintain the currency peg, marking its first intervention in five years [8] Group 9 - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority attributed the recent strength of the Hong Kong dollar to increased demand related to stock investments and the appreciation of several regional currencies against the U.S. dollar [9] Group 10 - Berkshire Hathaway's annual shareholder meeting addressed trade policies and investment strategies, emphasizing the importance of global trade [10] Group 11 - New energy vehicle companies reported significant growth in April deliveries, with XPeng Motors seeing a 273% year-on-year increase [11] Group 12 - Travel booking platform Fliggy reported an over 80% increase in customized travel bookings for the May Day holiday, indicating a shift towards more personalized travel experiences [12] Group 13 - OPEC+ announced an increase in production by 411,000 barrels per day starting in June, reflecting a response to current market conditions [13] Group 14 - Upcoming new stock offerings include three companies, with specific details on their subscription codes [14] Group 15 - CITIC Securities indicated that risk appetite is expected to rise in May, focusing on themes related to technology and consumption [15] Group 16 - Zhongtai Securities highlighted that opportunities in May will be more pronounced in technology, consumption, and certain cyclical sectors, suggesting a focus on improving performance and policy support [16]