| 锡产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年4月29日 | | | | 寇帝斯 | Z0021810 | | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#锡 | 260200 | 263000 | -2800 | -1.06% | | | SMM 1#锡升贴水 | 800 | 1000 | -200 | -20.00% | 元/吨 | | 长江 1#锡 | 260700 | 263500 | -2800 | -1.06% | | | LME 0-3升贴水 | -171.99 | -169.00 | -2.99 | -1.77% | 美元/吨 | | 内外比价及进口盈亏 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 进口盈亏 | -10657.77 | -8039.09 | -2618.68 | -32.57% | 元/吨 | | 沪伦比值 | 8. ...

| 十미 [2011 ] 1292号 | *业期现日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年4月29日 | | | | 纪工非 | Z0013180 | | 现货价格及主力合约基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 4月28日 | 4月25日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 华东通氧SI5530工业硅 | 9550 | 9600 | -50 | -0.52% | | | 章美(通到SI5530星准) | 770 | 725 | 45 | 6.21% | | | 华东SI4210工业硅 | 10400 | 10450 | -50 | -0.48% | 元/吨 | | 基差(SI4210基准) | 820 | 775 | 45 | 5.81% | | | 新疆99硅 | 8800 | 8800 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 基差(新疆) | 820 | 725 | ರಿನ | 13.10% | | | 月间价差 | | | | | | | 合约 | 4月28日 | 1月0日 | 演 佚 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 250 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The PVC market is in a situation of insufficient demand and over - capacity, with a bearish outlook but influenced by domestic policies and trade conditions [2]. - The caustic soda market has sufficient supply and limited demand growth, showing a weak and volatile trend [3]. - The rubber market is expected to be dominated by weak demand and sufficient supply, remaining in a weak and volatile state [4]. - The urea market has stable supply and upcoming demand release, with prices expected to move within a certain range [6]. - The methanol market has a decrease in domestic supply, a stable downstream demand, and a differentiation in inventory, with a short - term bullish and volatile trend [8]. - The plastic market has large supply pressure and weak downstream demand, with a weak market outlook but potential support from tariffs [9]. Summaries by Product PVC - On April 28, the PVC main 09 contract closed at 4989 yuan/ton (+28), with different market prices in various regions. Long - term demand is depressed due to the real estate sector, and exports are restricted. Supply has new investment plans, resulting in a loose supply - demand pattern. Currently, it is macro - dominated, and its performance depends on policies and trade conditions [2]. Caustic Soda - On April 28, the caustic soda main SH09 contract closed at 2441 yuan/ton (+2). Last week, supply was sufficient, demand did not improve, and prices declined. The market is currently characterized by low warehouse receipts, high inventory, and limited demand growth, with a weak and volatile trend [3]. Rubber - On April 28, the rubber market was volatile. NR was weak due to upcoming harvest in Thailand, RU had some support from purchases, and BR was the weakest due to crude oil influence. The market is expected to be driven by weak demand and sufficient supply, and its performance is related to policies and tariffs [4]. Urea - The urea main contract rose 1.08% to close at 1781 yuan/ton. Supply is stable, and demand from rice and corn fertilization is expected to be released around May Day. The market is in a state of seasonal inventory accumulation, and prices are expected to move between 1730 - 1850 [6]. Methanol - The methanol main contract rose 0.96% to close at 2310 yuan/ton. The device's operating rate decreased, domestic supply shrank, downstream demand was stable, and inventory was differentiated. It is expected to be bullish and volatile in the short - term, with prices in the range of 2200 - 2350 [8]. Plastic - On April 28, the plastic main contract rose 0.20% to close at 7164 yuan/ton. Supply pressure is large, downstream demand is weak, and the market outlook is weak, but tariffs may provide some support [9].

另存为PDF 生猪日报 | 2025-04-29 【期价震荡调整】 【市场动态】 1、4月28日，生猪注册仓单705手； 2、LH2505合约以期现回归、交割博弈为主，远月合约受后续出栏增量有限且下 半年属消费旺季、远月养殖成本可能抬升的预期影响支撑较强； 3、主力合约（LH2509）今日增仓1071手，持仓约7.34万手，最高价14230元/ 吨，最低价14100元/吨，收盘于14130元/吨。 【基本面分析】 1、能繁母猪存栏量看，3-12月生猪供应量有望逐月增加，但幅度有限。仔猪数 据看，2025年二三季度生猪出栏量整体震荡增加；需求端来看，上半年较下半 年相比属需求淡季，下半年属需求旺季； 2、 从历史情况和现下基本面来看，肥标差仍有回落空间； 3、市场多空逻辑： 空头：①养殖端尚未进行降重，实则利空后市；②后续出栏 量有望持续增加；③二三季度尚未到消费旺季，需求对猪价的支撑有限；多 头：①屠企入库尚未结束能给猪价以支撑；②现货价格坚挺，说明供需不像空 头想的那么宽松；③后续出栏虽有增量但幅度有限，且三四季度逐渐进入生猪 消费旺季；④玉米豆粕涨价可能抬升生猪养殖成本。 【策略建议】 1、观点：短期猪价 ...

兴业期货日度策略：2025.04.28 重点策略推荐及操作建议： 商品期货方面：玻璃空头格局明确，工业硅承压，沪镍成本支撑坚挺。 联系电话：021-80220262 操作上： | 1.地产政策持稳，玻璃厂旺季累库，玻璃 FG509 前空持有； | | --- | | 2.库存继续累积，工业硅 SI2506-C-9000 卖看涨期权持有； | | 3.矿端紧张延续，沪镍卖出看跌期权 NI2506P120000 头寸持有。 | 品种基本面分析及行情研判： | 品种 | 观点及操作建议 | 方向研判 | 分析师 | 联系人 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 政策预期降温，震荡格局延续 上周 A 股延续横盘整理，科技与红利主题反复轮动，沪深两市 | | | | | | 成交额维持在 1.2 万亿元左右。从行业来看，上周综合金融、汽车、 | | | | | | 电力及新能源板块涨幅居前，食品饮料、消费者服务、房地产跌幅 | | | | | | 居前。 | | 投资咨询部 | | | | 期货市场随现货指数震荡调整，上周五 IF、IH、IC 和 IM 涨跌 | | 张舒绮 | 联 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel: The static fundamentals of steel are good, with strong export demand for steel and billets. Despite high supply and good profits for steel mills, inventory depletion is smooth. With the approaching May Day holiday, downstream replenishment demand provides significant short - term support for steel prices. Rumors of 5000 - million - ton crude steel production cuts have strengthened the upward price expectation, but the impact is hard to predict. Production cuts may change the strength relationship between steel and raw materials, but may not drive a significant increase in steel prices [3]. - Iron Ore: The iron ore market maintains a situation of strong current reality and weak future expectations until mid - May. Although demand is strong, the market is trading on weak future expectations, especially the possible sharp decline in orders in mid - May [21]. - Coal and Coke: Affected by the news of crude steel production cuts, the profit of steel mills on the futures market has expanded rapidly. In the short term, the supply and demand of coal and coke are both strong, and prices have some support at the bottom. In the long term, if the production - cut policy is not implemented immediately, a new round of negative feedback may occur in the black market after the real demand weakens in late May [37]. - Ferroalloys: The fundamentals of ferroalloys continue the trend of pricing based on production cuts. Although the pressure of high supply has eased, the supply is still in excess compared to weak downstream demand, and high - inventory pressure remains [56]. - Soda Ash: Starting from May, expected maintenance will increase supply disturbances. The market is in a long - term oversupply situation with high inventory. Although the rigid demand has slightly improved, the photovoltaic industry may return to an oversupply situation. The decline in soda ash prices is driven by inventory accumulation and price - cutting actions of alkali plants, and supply disturbances may increase market volatility [71][72]. - Glass: Driven by weak demand and pessimistic expectations, along with high inventory pressure in the mid - and upstream, glass prices have dropped significantly. In the future, glass will continue to face oversupply pressure. Variables to consider include the postponement of ignition and new cold - repairs, as well as the improvement of demand. Short - term price fluctuations may increase [96]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Futures Prices**: On April 28, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3157, 3060, and 3129 respectively; the closing prices of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3258, 3209, and 3237 respectively [4]. - **Spot Prices**: On April 28, 2025, the aggregated rebar price in China was 3374 yuan/ton, and the aggregated hot - rolled coil price in Shanghai was 3280 yuan/ton [8]. - **Basis and Spread**: On April 28, 2025, the 01 rebar basis in Shanghai was 83 yuan/ton, and the 01 hot - rolled coil basis in Shanghai was 22 yuan/ton. The 01 roll - rebar spread was 101 yuan/ton [8][15]. Iron Ore - **Futures Prices**: On April 28, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 684, 763, and 710.5 respectively [22]. - **Spot Prices**: On April 28, 2025, the price of Rizhao PB powder was 763 yuan/ton [22]. - **Fundamentals**: As of April 25, 2025, the daily average pig iron output was 244.35 million tons, and the 45 - port inventory was 14261 million tons [31]. Coal and Coke - **Futures Prices**: On April 25, 2025, the coking coal warehouse - receipt cost (Tangshan Meng 5) was 983 yuan/ton, and the coke warehouse - receipt cost (Rizhao Port) was 1487 yuan/ton [38]. - **Spot Prices**: On April 28, 2025, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur main coking coal was 1300 yuan/ton, and the ex - warehouse price of Rizhao quasi - first - grade coke was 1350 yuan/ton [38]. - **Profit and Ratio**: On April 25, 2025, the on - disk coking profit was 108 yuan/ton, and the main ore - coke ratio was 0.453 [38]. Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron**: On April 28, 2025, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was 260 yuan/ton, and the silicon iron spot price in Ningxia was 5650 yuan/ton [59]. - **Silicon Manganese**: On April 28, 2025, the silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 254 yuan/ton, and the silicon manganese spot price in Inner Mongolia was 5680 yuan/ton [59]. Soda Ash - **Futures Prices**: On April 28, 2025, the closing prices of soda ash 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1319, 1364, and 1368 respectively [73]. - **Spot Prices**: On April 28, 2025, the market price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1500 yuan/ton [74]. - **Market Situation**: Starting from May, expected maintenance will increase supply disturbances. The market is in long - term oversupply with high inventory, and demand has slightly improved [71]. Glass - **Futures Prices**: On April 28, 2025, the closing prices of glass 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1078, 1122, and 1172 respectively [97]. - **Spot Prices**: On April 28, 2025, the 05 - contract basis in Shahe was 158 yuan/ton [97]. - **Market Situation**: Driven by weak demand and high inventory, glass prices have dropped significantly. Future prices depend on ignition postponement, new cold - repairs, and demand improvement [96].

原油经历贸易战暴跌及修复行情后短期处于相对稳态,重点关注后期供需超预期的变化。上周美国汽油表需大 幅走强,亦有消息称尼日利亚丹格特炼厂渣油催化裂化产汽油装置进入检修,汽油裂解受到提振并带动海外炼 化利润出现修复,关注北美驾驶旺季临近油品需求超预期好转的持续性。供应端俄乌、伊核、巴以均处地缘缓 和大趋势中,5/50PEC+会议亦存在继续加快增产的可能,供给增量、地球风险缓和或成为边际变化氢点，继续 持有低成本偏空期权组合对冲油价下行风险。 【與東簽紙號無裝 俄罗斯上周燃料油发运蛋有所回升,新加坡燃料油库存持续增加,FU裂解转为震荡,后续关注FU裂解到达高位 后强势能否持续;尼日利亚丹格特炼厂20万桶/天的渣油催化裂化产汽油装置进入检修,汽油裂解走强对主产品 低硫燃料油裂解构成提振。今日LU5月令约涨幅高达5.9%. 仓库仓单增加31000吨,关注LU近月强势能否持续。 【沥青】 五一节前市场备货需求增加,周度沥青出货量为44.2万吨,环比上升7.5万吨,同比上升高达17.3万吨。截至4 月24日,样本炼厂库存环比下降7.1万吨至86.2万吨;样本社会阵环比下降1.3万吨至193.5万吨,厂库与社库均 去库。供需 ...

晨报 煤焦 煤焦：需求承压 盘面维持低位震荡 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 本报告中的信息均来源于公开的资料，我公司对信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证，也不保证包含的信 息和建议不会发生变更，我们已力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中观点、结论和建议仅供参考，投资者据此 做出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关。 地址：北京市海淀区海淀大街 8 号 19 层 ☎ 400-700-6700 www.zgfcc.com 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 4 月 28 日 逻辑：上周，贸易关税形势稍有缓和，但对商品价格的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing changes and challenges in the five new towns surrounding Shanghai, highlighting the discrepancies between rising inventory and declining transaction volumes in the real estate market [1][4][15]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The inventory of properties in the outer ring of Shanghai has been steadily increasing, with approximately 50% of listings located outside the outer ring [4][6]. - Since 2021, the transaction share in the five new towns has been declining, indicating a potential market saturation or lack of demand [4][12]. - The data shows that while the number of listings has increased, the sales volume has not kept pace, leading to a growing inventory problem [10][18]. Group 2: Regional Analysis - Each of the five new towns—Jiading, Qingpu, Songjiang, Fengxian, and Lingang—exhibits similar trends of high listings but low sales, particularly in the mid-range price segment of 2-5 million [6][10]. - Jiading has seen a significant increase in listings from 18 in 2021 to 56 in 2023, yet sales have remained relatively stable [9][10]. - The overall market dynamics indicate that while the outer ring's inventory is rising, the transaction volume is decreasing, particularly in the five new towns [12][20]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The article suggests that the five new towns are under pressure due to the mismatch between supply and demand, with a notable shift in market sentiment since 2022 [16][18]. - The population influx and industrial development in these areas are critical factors, but they do not directly correlate with the current real estate transaction trends [18][20]. - The future of these new towns may depend on addressing the current inventory and transaction imbalance, as well as enhancing their attractiveness to potential buyers [22].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱周报 2025.4.21-4.25 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 1、下游光伏玻璃产能有所提升，提振纯碱需求。 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 上周纯碱期货低位震荡，主力合约SA2509收盘较前一周上涨3.10%报1365元/吨。现货方 面，河北沙河重碱低端价1340元/吨，较前一周上涨3.88%。 供给方面，近期装置检修少，整体供应处于较高水平；上周生产利润依然分化，上周华 东重碱联碱法利润175.50元/吨，华北地区重碱氨碱法利润-62.50元/吨；预计下周开工90%， 产量76万吨，五月上旬，检修企业逐步增加，预期产量下降。需求端，下游浮法和光伏玻璃 企业经营现状整体偏弱，下游刚需补库，整体消费量波动不大，但下游企业对原材料的储备 意向不高，基本随用随采。截止4月25日，全国纯碱厂内库存169.1 ...