Group 1 - Citi forecasts that gold prices will decline due to easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and improving global economic growth prospects, expecting prices to fall to $2500 to $2700 per ounce by the second half of 2026 [1] - In the third quarter, gold prices are expected to stabilize between $3100 and $3500 per ounce, with the supply-demand gap in the gold market peaking during this period [1] - Citi has shifted its outlook from bullish to bearish on gold, advising mining companies to take protective measures against potential price declines [1] Group 2 - Citi anticipates that the Federal Reserve will implement three rate cuts in 2025, which could impact gold prices as they typically have an inverse relationship with interest rates [3] - Other institutions remain optimistic about gold, with Morgan Stanley predicting prices could reach $6000 per ounce by 2029, requiring an 80% increase from current levels [4] - Goldman Sachs projects that gold prices will rise to $3700 per ounce by the end of 2025, with Bank of America also forecasting prices to exceed $4000 per ounce by the same time [4]

一、日度市场总结 6月30日原油市场呈现分化格局，SC原油主力合约结算价小幅回落至496.7 元/桶，周度累计下跌0.36%，盘中连续测试500元整数关口支撑。相比之 下，WTI与Brent油价横盘僵持于65和66美元/桶区间，周内振幅不足0.5美 元。值得注意的是，SC与国际基准油种的价差持续收窄，SC-Brent价差从 周初的5.41美元连续压缩至2.98美元，月间价差SC连续-连3则逆势走强0.8 元，反映亚洲时段原油远期曲线结构呈现近弱远强特征。 从供给端观察，中东地缘风险溢价加速消退成为主要利空驱动。海法炼油 厂的快速复工（预计10月全面复产）显著缓解市场对伊朗核设施冲突升级 的担忧，叠加OPEC+产量政策调整窗口临近，8月会议可能推进补偿性增产 的预期令市场承压。与此同时，燃料油市场结构变化值得关注：低硫燃料 油仓单单日暴增15000吨，显示亚太地区炼厂正通过调整出率应对即将实行 的IMO2026环保新规，这可能刺激高硫燃料油被动减产后端的原油需求。 地缘溢价消退与价差收窄压制原油市场 需求侧则呈现多空交织局面。美国夏季出行旺季支撑炼厂开工率维持高 位，美战略石油储备补库需求与馏分油库存下降形成短 ...

Core Viewpoint - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects Switzerland's economic growth rate to be 1.2% in 2026, highlighting significant risks, particularly external ones [1] Economic Outlook - Switzerland's economy is facing major risks, especially from external factors such as geopolitical tensions, fluctuations in energy prices, trade uncertainties, and tariffs [1]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 消费旺季 VS 供给增加，油价盘整。近期地缘风险溢价挤出，油价重回基 | | 原油 | 空头盘整 | 本面定价，OPEC+从 4 月份开始正式增产，当前产能处于增产初期，加上 | | | | 当前处于消费旺季，油价下方有一定支撑，但随着增产量逐渐上升，油价 | | | | 下行压力较大。策略：轻仓试空并购买看涨期权保护。SC【490-510】 | | | | 油价下降，沙特下调 CP 合同价，液化气承压。近期地缘溢价挤出，成本 | | LPG | 偏弱 | 端原油回落；下游化工需求继续回升，PDH、烷基化、MTBE 开工率上升； | | | | 库存端利好，港口库存连续下降。策略：成本端利空，可轻仓试空。PG | | | | 【4130-4250】 | | | | 停车比例降至 12%。华北基差为-12（环比-2），近期装置重启增多，预计 | | | | 本周产量增加至 60.7 万吨。近期上中游库存显著下滑，需求淡季，下游刚 | | L | 空头盘整 | 需拿货为主，关注后续库存去化力度。7-8 月仍有山 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that iron ore prices are experiencing a downward trend, with the main futures contract reported at 707.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.46% [1] - As of July 1, the total iron ore inventory at 47 ports in China is 144.65 million tons, a decrease of 287,400 tons from the previous week [2] - Satellite data shows that from June 23 to June 29, 2024, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil is 12.38 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 188,000 tons, indicating a relatively low inventory level since the second quarter [2] Group 2 - According to Everbright Futures, the mismatch between overseas supply and domestic demand has supported iron ore prices, which are expected to remain strong as long as steel mills maintain profitability and high iron water production [3] - Guotou Anxin Futures notes that iron ore shipments globally have decreased compared to the same period last year, with both Australian and Brazilian shipments declining, while non-mainstream countries have seen a rebound [3] - The macroeconomic environment shows a decrease in geopolitical risks and signs of easing trade tensions between China and the U.S., leading to improved market sentiment [3]

2025年7月1日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) SCFIS补涨，船司挺价难度仍较高，空单可考虑部分止盈，近期博弈难度较大，建议轻仓参与或观望。 | SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | | | --- | --- | | 6月30日 | 6月27日 | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）2123.24点，较上期上涨9.6% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（综合指数）1366.47点，较上期下跌1.13% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）1619.19点，较上期下跌22.3% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（欧洲航线）1442.95点，较上期上涨11.03% 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（美西航线）1553.68点，较上期下跌2.04%% | | 6月27日 | 6月27日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1861.51点，较上期下跌8.08点 | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（综合指数）1369.34点，较上期上涨2.0% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格2030USD/TEU, 较上期上涨10.63% | | | 上海出口集装箱运 ...

原油成品油早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/07/01 | 日期 | WTI | BRENT | DUBAI | diff FOB dated bre | BRENT 1- 2月差 | WTI-BREN T | DUBAI-B RT（EFS | NYMEX RB OB | RBOB-BR T | NYMEX HO | HO-BRT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | nt | | | | | | | | | 2025/06/24 | 64.37 | 67.14 | 69.13 | 0.90 | 0.97 | -2.77 | 2.31 | 208.57 | 20.46 | 228.51 | 28.83 | | 2025/06/25 | 64.92 | 67.68 | 69.12 | 0.76 | 1.25 | -2.76 | 2.36 | 208.24 | 19.78 | 229.64 | 28.77 | | 2025/06/26 | 65.24 | 67.73 | 69.14 ...

| | | | 甲醇日评20250701: 短期预计震荡运行 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | | 单位 | 2025/6/30 | 2025/6/27 | 变化值 | 変化值 | | | | | | | | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | | | MA01 太仓 广东 | 元/吨 元/吨 元/吨 | 2413.00 2790.00 2435.00 | 2419.00 2810.00 2465.00 | -6.00 -20.00 -30.00 | -0.25% -0.71% -1.22% | | | 甲醇期货价格 | MA05 | 元/吨 | 2325.00 | 2328.00 | -3.00 | -0.13% | | | (收盘价) | MA09 | 元/吨 | 2381.00 | 2393.00 | -12.00 | -0.50% | | | 甲醇现货价格 | | | | | | | | | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 2230.00 | 2260.00 | -30.00 | -1.33% | | 期 ...

华联期货分析称，供应端周内产量小幅降低，主要是有新增装置加入检修，不过总体供应仍偏高位。需 求端下游制品开工率周环比继续走低，主要是管型材硬制品开工季节性走弱，企业订单偏弱，宏观层面 房地产仍拖累终端需求。出口方面受印度雨季影响，签单承压。库存端上游去库社库累库。成本端电石 价格弱势，乙烯持稳，整体估值驱动仍不足。短线黑色建材类板块再度下跌，V盘面跟随下行。操作上 激进型前期少量多单谨慎持有，2509合约支撑参考4800附近。 目前来看，PVC行情呈现震荡下行走势，盘面表现偏弱。对于PVC后市行情将如何运行，相关机构观点 汇总如下： 冠通期货指出，中东地缘风险急剧降温，原油价格大幅下跌，不过煤炭价格近期因山西省安全生产政策 等低位反弹，印度PVC BIS政策再次延期6个月，PVC现货价格涨后成交再度转弱，预计PVC近期低位 震荡。 7月1日，国内期市能化板块大面积飘绿。其中，PVC期货主力合约开盘报4885.00元/吨，今日盘中低位 震荡运行；截至发稿，PVC主力最高触及4888.00元，下方探低4810.00元，跌幅达2.19%附近。 宁证期货表示，PVC生产企业检修规模环比增加，PVC供应仍维持高位，利润 ...

Group 1 - The core theme of the report focuses on understanding the "European changes" in the context of global multipolarity, regional power restructuring, and domestic polarization [2] - The report will involve contributions from experts across various Chinese universities and think tanks, discussing European integration prospects, geopolitical and geoeconomic changes, and the situations of major countries such as the UK, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, and Spain [3] - The event marks a significant initiative by the China-Europe Research Think Tank Network (CTNE) to promote knowledge exchange and think tank collaboration following the successful release of last year's report on China-Europe relations in a multipolar world [3] Group 2 - The report authors include notable scholars from Tsinghua University, Shanghai Institute for International Studies, and the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, who will share insights on the changing role of the US, the reconstruction of Ukrainian identity, and the rebuilding of European security order [2] - The CTNE aims to enhance the international dissemination of Chinese perspectives by collaborating with fourteen other member institutions to explore innovative paths in regional and country-specific research [3] - The event featured discussions on the costs of European aid to Ukraine and the impact of the conflict on China-Russia and China-Europe relations, highlighting the current focal points of interest [2]