Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating of the zinc industry is bearish, with a trend strength of -1, indicating a relatively negative outlook [1]. 2. Report's Core View - The zinc market may face a situation of supply surplus, leading to downward pressure on prices [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Price**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract was 21,675 yuan/ton, down 0.87%, while the LME 3M electronic zinc contract closed at $2,649/ton, up 0.09% [1]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract was 91,557 lots, a decrease of 22,924 lots, and the open interest was 105,123 lots, an increase of 17,484 lots. The LME zinc trading volume was 6,815 lots, an increase of 38 lots, and the open interest was 207,970 lots, an increase of 1,564 lots [1]. - **Premium and Discount**: The premium of Shanghai 0 zinc was 115 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton; the premium of Guangdong 0 zinc was 220 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan/ton; the premium of Tianjin 0 zinc was 105 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton. The LME CASH - 3M premium was -$24.65/ton, an increase of $2.24/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: The SHFE zinc futures inventory was 8,743 tons, an increase of 148 tons, and the LME zinc inventory was 126,225 tons, a decrease of 1,250 tons [1]. News - Since the Israel - Iran conflict, Iranian senior officials had their first face - to - face talks with Western countries. Iran insisted that an Israeli cease - fire was a prerequisite for diplomatic solutions, but the talks did not break the deadlock. The Iranian president's spokesman said that Iran would not stop nuclear enrichment but might reduce it. Media reported that Iran was ready to discuss limiting uranium enrichment but refused zero enrichment. Israel was preparing for a long - term war with Iran [1].

1. Core View on Urea - On June 20, 2025, the urea price plummeted due to multiple factors [3] - The domestic urea production capacity has been continuously expanding, with an expected new capacity (including replacement) of 6.6 million tons/year in 2025. The total production capacity may exceed 75 million tons/year by the end of the year, with a stable daily output of over 200,000 tons and an operating rate of around 87% [4] - The demand is weak. In agriculture, during the summer top - dressing season, grass - roots procurement is cautious, and the procurement volume is only 70% of previous years. Industrial demand is also poor, with the operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises dropping significantly to around 37% [4] - As of June 11, the national urea enterprise inventory reached 1.1771 million tons, an increase of 141,700 tons from the previous week, a growth rate of 13.7%. Urea exports are strictly controlled, and the port - gathering speed is slow, with an export expectation of less than 2 million tons this year, which is difficult to relieve the domestic inventory pressure [5] - The decline in raw material coal prices weakens the cost support, and the production costs of coal - based and gas - based enterprises have decreased simultaneously, giving enterprises more room to cut prices [5] 2. Technical Analysis of Different Futures 2.1 Stock Index Futures - Rumors that Trump will decide whether to attack Iran within two weeks have led to a decline in international oil prices. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate next week [8] 2.2 Gold - The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates in the meeting has reduced the expectation of an interest rate cut this year, causing an adjustment in gold prices. However, the general upward trend remains unchanged, and it is only a matter of time to reach a new high. A low - buying strategy is recommended [12][13] 2.3 Iron Ore - The supply has increased month - on - month, the pig iron output has weakened seasonally, and the ports have returned to inventory accumulation. The weak reality has increased the over - valuation risk of iron ore. Technically, pay attention to the important support below and view it with a fluctuating perspective [15][16] 2.4 Glass - The supply side has not experienced a major loss - induced cold repair situation, the factory inventory is still at a high level, the downstream deep - processing orders have weak restocking motivation, and the demand has not continued to increase significantly. It still depends on the effect of real - estate stimulus or the introduction of major policies. Technically, it rebounded slightly today, and a fluctuating view is adopted [19][20] 2.5 Soybean Oil - Due to the long - term expectation of the US biodiesel policy and the uncertain Middle East situation, the short - term trend of oils and fats may be fluctuating or slightly stronger. However, the current supply - demand situation is not tight, and it is in the period of medium - term seasonal production and inventory increase. When the price reaches the previous high pressure area of 8280 - 8300, take profit on long positions and take short positions with a light position [21]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-12 镍品种 市场分析 2025-06-11日沪镍主力合约2507开于121300元/吨，收于121790元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化0.11%，当日成交量为 89964手，持仓量为76472手。 沪镍主力合约夜盘低开走高后区间振荡，日盘开盘下跌受阻后振荡反弹，收中阴线。成交量较上个交易日略有减 少，持仓量较上个交易日有所增加。中美经贸双方进行了坦诚、深入的对话，就各自关心的经贸议题深入交换意 见。国家统计局6月9日发布数据显示，5月份，居民消费价格指数（CPI）环比下降0.2%，同比下降0.1%，扣除食 品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨0.6%，涨幅比上月扩大0.1个百分点。工业生产者出厂价格指数（PPI）环比下降 0.4%，降幅与上月相同，同比下降3.3%，降幅比上月扩大0.6个百分点。菲律宾镍业协会（PNIA）欢迎两院委员会 决定从矿业财政制度法案最终版本中删除原矿出口禁令条款。这是一个审慎且具有前瞻性的举措。菲律宾苏里高 矿区装船效率恢复尚可。6月中国精炼镍预估产量37345吨，环比增加3.75%。现货市场方面，金川镍早盘报价较上 个交易日下调约50元/吨，市 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall energy and chemical products should be treated with an oscillatory mindset as macro - data starts to reflect the weakening economic situation. The chemical sector shows a weaker trend than crude oil, and the market is still dominated by the pessimistic expectation of future demand [2]. 3. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **View**: There is still an expectation of supply surplus, and attention should be paid to macro and geopolitical disturbances. The price of crude oil will continue to oscillate under the balance of OPEC+ production - increasing pressure and macro - geopolitical benefits [5]. - **Main Logic**: The EIA short - term energy outlook continues to lower the expected production of the US next year, and the API data shows that the US destocked crude oil and restocked refined oil last week, with relatively weak terminal demand. Although the recent macro - environment has eased and Saudi Arabia's production increase in May was limited, the supply surplus expectation still exists in the second half of the year due to the cumulative effect of production increase [5]. LPG - **View**: The domestic combustion and chemical demand remain weak, with limited upward rebound space and may oscillate at the bottom in the short term [9]. - **Main Logic**: Domestic refineries are gradually resuming from maintenance, increasing the supply of liquefied gas and civil gas, and the refinery inventory is rising. High temperatures reduce the civil combustion demand, and the downstream restocking willingness is limited. The PDH device operating rate has declined slightly, and the port inventory is rising, with limited incremental demand for propane [9]. Asphalt - **View**: The absolute price of asphalt is over - estimated, and the asphalt monthly spread is expected to decline with the increase of warehouse receipts [5]. - **Main Logic**: The increase in heavy - oil supply due to OPEC+ production increase and the improvement of domestic raw material supply will put pressure on asphalt prices. The current asphalt is over - estimated, and it needs both strong crude oil and rebar for a bull market, but the current situation does not support it [5][6]. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: It will oscillate weakly as the supply increases and demand decreases, and the geopolitical impact on prices is short - term [6][7]. - **Main Logic**: The increase in heavy - oil supply, the rise in import tariffs, and the substitution of natural gas for oil power generation will put pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil prices. The current strong cracking spread and weak discount are due to different factors, and the three driving forces supporting high - sulfur fuel oil are weakening [6][7]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: It will follow the crude oil price to oscillate, with increasing supply, falling demand, and may maintain a low - valuation operation [8][9]. - **Main Logic**: Currently, the supply and demand of low - sulfur fuel oil are both weak. The reduction of domestic refined - oil export tax rebates and the cancellation of UCO export tax rebates will increase the supply pressure, which is likely to be transmitted to low - sulfur fuel oil [8][9]. Methanol - **View**: It will oscillate in the short term [17]. - **Main Logic**: The methanol price oscillated on June 10. The port inventory is entering a restocking cycle, and the coal price has a short - term rebound, which has a slight impact on methanol. The olefin market is still weak, providing limited support for methanol [17]. Urea - **View**: The domestic supply is strong and demand is weak, and the futures price will oscillate weakly [17]. - **Main Logic**: The high supply continues, and the agricultural demand has not seen concentrated replenishment yet, while the industrial demand is weakening. Exports are expected to be reflected in late June, and the enterprise inventory is rising [17]. Ethylene Glycol - **View**: It has support at the 4200 - 4300 level, and short - selling is not recommended [13]. - **Main Logic**: The industrial pattern of ethylene glycol is still healthy from June to July. The possible stagnation of US ethane exports may limit future production, and the downward space is limited [13]. PX - **View**: It will oscillate weakly as the supply restarts quickly, and attention should be paid to PTA production and polyester start - up [11]. - **Main Logic**: The cost - end guidance of PX is slowing down due to the uncertain future OPEC+ production policy and concerns about global demand. The Asian PX operating load will increase, and the domestic PX is in a destocking cycle, but the supply - demand game is intensifying [11]. PTA - **View**: The supply increases and demand decreases, and the situation is gradually weakening [11]. - **Main Logic**: The weaving load is declining due to limited orders and high inventory. The PTA supply is restarting, and the supply - demand weak expectation restricts the market sentiment, and the destocking is narrowing in June [11]. Short - Fiber - **View**: The processing fee is supported by production cuts, and the absolute value follows the raw material price [13][14]. - **Main Logic**: The PF fundamentals are improving marginally. The supply pressure is relieved due to production cuts, and the spot basis is strengthening. The short - term decline is driven by the macro - environment, and the industrial pattern is still healthy [13][14]. Bottle Chip - **View**: It will oscillate and follow the raw material price [15]. - **Main Logic**: After the price decline, the trading volume of bottle chips has increased, and the basis has strengthened. Exports have diverted some of the excess supply, but it is not enough to change the weak situation. The scope of production cuts and maintenance may expand [15][16]. PP - **View**: It will oscillate in the short term [20]. - **Main Logic**: The cost - end support is marginally increasing, but the supply is still increasing, and the downstream demand is weak. The high - speed growth of supply continues, and the upstream refinery profit may need to be further compressed to balance the supply [20]. Plastic - **View**: It will oscillate as the improvement of maintenance is limited [19]. - **Main Logic**: The cost - end valuation support is marginally increasing, but the plastic's own fundamentals are still under pressure. The supply pressure is high, the downstream demand is weak, and the export window has not widened significantly [19]. Styrene - **View**: It rebounded due to macro - expectations, but the subsequent driving force is insufficient and will oscillate weakly [11][12]. - **Main Logic**: The macro - meeting and device rumors drove the rebound. However, the real - world benefits are limited, the supply may increase due to the restart of long - stopped devices, and the demand and inventory situation of styrene and its downstream products are not optimistic [11][12]. PVC - **View**: It will have a weak rebound in the short term due to improved sentiment, but may face pressure in the long term [22]. - **Main Logic**: The market sentiment has improved due to Sino - US talks. However, in the long term, new production capacity will be put into operation, the domestic demand is in the off - season, and exports are expected to weaken. Although there are many maintenance plans in June, the production will increase after the new capacity is put into operation in mid - July [22]. Caustic Soda - **View**: The spot price has peaked, and it is advisable to short on rallies [22]. - **Main Logic**: The non - aluminum demand is entering the off - season, and the receiving price of Weiqiao has started to decline. Although there are many maintenance plans in June, the supply is expected to increase in the third quarter. The current supply and demand are both weak, and the 09 - contract fundamentals are pessimistic [22]. 4. Variety Data Monitoring Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: Data on the inter - period spreads of various varieties such as SC, WTI, Brent, etc. are provided, showing the latest values and changes [23]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Information on the basis and warehouse receipts of multiple varieties including asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, etc. is presented [24]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The latest values and changes of inter - variety spreads such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 1 - month TA - EG, etc. are given [25]. Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - Although sub - headings for multiple varieties such as methanol, urea, etc. are provided, no specific content is given in the provided documents.

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not available Core Views - The global economic slowdown and supply - demand imbalances are putting pressure on various commodity markets, with different commodities showing different trends based on their specific supply - demand fundamentals and external factors such as trade negotiations and policy changes [2][3][5] Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - The World Bank cut the 2025 global economic growth forecast to 2.3%, 0.4% lower than the previous prediction, suppressing oil price increases. EIA raised the 2025 crude market surplus expectation. Overall, supply surplus is pressuring the crude market. Consider short - selling when prices are relatively high. Monitor the progress of US - Iran, Russia - Ukraine, and China - US negotiations [2] 焦炭 - On June 10, the coke market price was weak. After the price cut, coke producers' profits are near the break - even point, and there is still room for price decline. Steel mills may initiate a fourth round of price cuts. It is recommended to sell on rebounds [3] Treasury Bonds - On June 11, yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds rose slightly at the opening. The bond market may face downward pressure at the opening. With economic downward pressure and the need for counter - cyclical adjustment, the bond market has some support. Adopt a mid - term wide - range oscillatory and slightly bullish approach [5] Rebar - On June 10, domestic steel market prices continued to decline. Steel demand in the off - season remains weak, and both supply and demand in the steel market are weak. Steel prices may continue to oscillate weakly in a narrow range [5] Silver - The progress of China - US trade consultations affects market pricing of US inflation and future interest - rate cut expectations. If the negotiations go well, silver's upward momentum may strengthen. Wait for pull - backs to go long [6] Iron Ore - From June 2nd to 8th, global iron ore shipments increased. The iron ore market is weakly stable. With weak demand from steel mills in the off - season and increasing supply, ore prices are under pressure. However, the deep discount of futures prices provides some support. Ore prices are expected to oscillate at low levels [7] Rubber - Thai raw material prices are rising, and Hainan's rubber collection volume has increased. The natural rubber market has rebounded with commodities due to macro factors. Supply is expected to increase, and demand shows no signs of improvement. The market is expected to oscillate and consolidate [8] Gold - As trade negotiations progress, risk - aversion sentiment has weakened. Market focus has shifted to the US economy and future interest - rate cut expectations. Gold and silver may show a divergent trend. Adopt a mid - term high - level oscillatory and slightly bullish approach for gold [10] PTA - PTA supply is expected to increase with new device startups. Polyester's operating load may decline in June. PTA's supply - demand outlook is weakening. PX supply is increasing, but PXN is expected to remain strong. Adopt a high - level short - selling strategy for PTA [10] Live Pigs - Pig prices are rising steadily in some northern regions. Some breeding enterprises are reducing supply to support prices, and second - fattening enthusiasm has increased slightly. Suggest 09 - 01 contract reverse spreads or short - term long positions in the 01 contract. Farmers can sell hedging according to their sales schedules [11] Palm Oil - Malaysia's MPOB report is neutral. Domestic palm oil inventory is increasing, and the price is expected to oscillate within a range. Monitor international biodiesel policies, high - frequency supply - demand data, and domestic inventory changes [11] Soybeans - Brazil's soybean production and related data forecasts remain unchanged. Domestic soybeans are quiet, and prices are expected to oscillate slightly upward. Hold long positions [12] Methanol - The methanol market in the interior is strong, and the port market's basis is strengthening. With stable coal prices, high domestic methanol operating rates, and increasing downstream demand, the port may continue to accumulate inventory. The methanol 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [13] Soda Ash - The domestic soda ash market is weakly stable. Supply remains high, and downstream demand is tepid. The soda ash 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or short on a short - term basis [14] PVC - PVC supply remains high, and profits are poor. Cost support is strengthening, and demand is stable. The domestic PVC market price is expected to oscillate in a small range. It is recommended to wait and see [15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, based on the individual品种outlooks, the general sentiment for the energy and chemical industry is "震荡" (sideways movement), with some品种having "震荡偏弱" (sideways with a weak bias) outlooks. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Economic data shows a weakening reality, and the overall energy and chemical sector is expected to move sideways. The weak domestic economic data in May, including deflation trends and mixed trade data, are the main reasons for the adjustment in the domestic chemical market. However, the relatively stable oil prices limit the downside space for chemicals [1][2][3]. - Crude oil supply surplus expectations remain, but short - term macro and geopolitical factors support prices. OPEC + production increases have not fully met the quota, which helps ease short - term supply concerns, but the cumulative effect of production increases in the second half of the year may lead to a supply surplus [5]. - Different品种in the energy and chemical sector have their own supply - demand characteristics, and most are expected to move sideways or sideways with a weak bias. For example, LPG demand is weak, asphalt prices are expected to fall, and PTA supply is increasing while demand is decreasing [3]. 3. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Supply surplus expectations remain, and prices are influenced by macro and geopolitical factors. On June 9, SC2507 closed at 474.3 yuan/barrel (+1.76%), and Brent2508 closed at 67.13 dollars/barrel (+0.72%). - **Main Logic**: Macro and geopolitical factors boost short - term prices. Saudi Arabia's actual production increase in May was less than the quota, which eases short - term supply concerns. However, the supply surplus is expected in the second half of the year due to the cumulative effect of OPEC + production increases. - **Outlook**: Prices will continue to move sideways under the balance of OPEC + production pressure and macro - geopolitical support [5]. LPG - **Viewpoint**: Demand is weak, and the upward rebound space is limited. On June 9, PG 2507 closed at 4116 yuan/ton (+0.44%). - **Main Logic**: Domestic refinery maintenance is ending, and supply is increasing. High temperatures reduce domestic combustion demand, and PDH device operating rates are slightly declining, with limited propane demand. - **Outlook**: It is expected to move sideways at the bottom in the short term [10]. Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: Futures prices are expected to fall. The main asphalt futures closed at 3509 yuan/ton, and spot prices in East China, Northeast China, and Shandong were 3650 yuan/ton, 3900 yuan/ton, and 3695 yuan/ton respectively. - **Main Logic**: Crude oil price increases are driven by geopolitical factors, and heavy oil supply is expected to increase. Domestic asphalt raw material supply is sufficient, inventory in Shandong is decreasing, but cracking spreads are high, and production in South China is increasing. Demand - side indicators show that asphalt is overvalued. - **Outlook**: The probability of inventory reduction, basis, and calendar spread increases is high, but the absolute price is overvalued [5]. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: The cracking spread is falling. The main high - sulfur fuel oil contract closed at 2943 yuan/ton. - **Main Logic**: Crude oil price increases due to sentiment, and heavy oil supply is expected to increase. China's fuel oil import tariff increase and the substitution of natural gas for oil in power generation reduce demand. - **Outlook**: Supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, and prices are expected to move sideways with a weak bias [6]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Prices follow crude oil and move sideways. The main low - sulfur fuel oil contract closed at 3525 yuan/ton. - **Main Logic**: Supply and demand are both weak. Demand is affected by weak refined oil products, shipping demand decline, and energy substitution. Domestic refined oil supply pressure may be transmitted to low - sulfur fuel oil. - **Outlook**: It will follow crude oil price fluctuations with a relatively low valuation [9]. PX - **Viewpoint**: Supply resumes quickly, and attention should be paid to PTA production and polyester start - up. On June 9, PX CFR China Taiwan was 808 (-10) dollars/ton, and PX 2509 closed at 6494 (-62) yuan/ton. - **Main Logic**: Crude oil price fluctuations slow down the cost - side guidance. Asian PX operating rates are expected to increase, and PTA device restarts are stronger than maintenance. Domestic PX is in a de - stocking cycle. - **Outlook**: Supply - demand competition intensifies, and prices will continue to consolidate [11]. PTA - **Viewpoint**: Supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, and the market situation is deteriorating. On June 9, PTA spot price was 4855 (-42) yuan/ton, and the spot processing fee was 473 (13) yuan/ton. - **Main Logic**: Demand is weak due to limited orders and high inventory in the weaving industry. Polyester production and sales are sluggish, and supply is restarting. - **Outlook**: Supply - demand weakens, and prices are expected to move sideways with a weak bias [11]. Short - Fiber - **Viewpoint**: Production cuts support processing fees, and prices follow raw materials. On June 9, polyester short - fiber prices were 6485 (-25) yuan/ton, and the spot processing fee was 868 (-39) yuan/ton. - **Main Logic**: The short - fiber industry's production cuts reduce supply pressure, and the spot basis strengthens. The decline on Monday was due to macro factors, and the industry pattern is still healthy. - **Outlook**: Processing fee compression space is limited, and macro - level negatives dominate the market [15]. Polyester Bottle - Chip - **Viewpoint**: Prices follow raw materials, and the self - pattern is weak. On June 9, domestic polyester bottle - chip factory quotes were mostly stable, and the export quotes were also stable. - **Main Logic**: Supply and demand are weak. The industry is reducing production due to poor profitability, but inventory is still at a five - year high. - **Outlook**: Processing fees will fluctuate between 300 - 400 yuan/ton, and the expansion power is limited [16]. PP - **Viewpoint**: Prices are expected to move sideways. On June 9, the mainstream transaction price of East China wire - drawing PP was 7050 yuan/ton, and the main contract basis was 118 (-7) yuan/ton. - **Main Logic**: Oil price rebounds support the cost side, but terminal demand is weak. Supply is increasing, and high - level maintenance is needed to balance supply and demand. - **Outlook**: Prices will move sideways in the short term [25]. Plastic (LLDPE) - **Viewpoint**: Prices are expected to move sideways. On June 9, the mainstream LLDPE spot price was 7120 (-10) yuan/ton, and the main contract basis was 42 (-22) yuan/ton. - **Main Logic**: Oil price rebounds, but terminal demand is weak. The plastic's own fundamentals are under pressure, and demand is low. Overseas prices are stable, and the exchange rate affects the domestic market. - **Outlook**: The LLDPE 09 contract will move sideways in the short term [24]. Styrene - **Viewpoint**: Prices increase slightly. On June 9, the East China styrene spot price was 7450 (50) yuan/ton, and the main contract basis was 239 (-53) yuan/ton. - **Main Logic**: Weekend sales of pure benzene in Shandong are good, which improves market sentiment. However, the real - time benefits are few, and supply may increase while demand is weak. - **Outlook**: Prices will move sideways with a weak bias in the short term [11]. PVC - **Viewpoint**: Prices have a weak rebound in the short term. On June 9, the East China calcium - carbide - based PVC benchmark price was 4780 (+10) yuan/ton, and the main contract basis was - 36 (-16) yuan/ton. - **Main Logic**: Sino - US talks improve market sentiment. However, in the medium - long term, new production capacity, off - season demand, and weak export expectations still put pressure on the market. - **Outlook**: Prices will have a weak rebound in the short term, and the market will be under pressure in the medium - long term without strong macro - stimulus [27]. Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: Spot prices have peaked, and short - selling is recommended. On June 9, the Shandong 32% caustic soda equivalent - to - 100% price was 2750 yuan/ton, and the main contract basis was 442 (+27) yuan/ton. - **Main Logic**: Non - aluminum demand is in the off - season, and the receiving volume of Weiqiao increases. However, concentrated maintenance in June limits the decline space. - **Outlook**: Spot pressure is not large in June, and the 09 contract is expected to be bearish. Short - selling is recommended, but beware of supply reduction and alumina restocking [27]. Methanol - **Viewpoint**: Prices are expected to move sideways. On June 9, the low - end price of methanol in Taicang was 2325 yuan/ton, and the 01 port spot basis was 48 yuan/ton. - **Main Logic**: Prices are affected by cost pressure and weak demand. Port inventory is increasing, and coal price rebounds have a small impact. - **Outlook**: Prices will move sideways in the short term [21]. Urea - **Viewpoint**: The futures market is weak, and wait for the callback opportunity after agricultural demand is released. On June 6, the low - end prices of urea factory warehouses and the market were 1760 (-20) and 1740 (-65) yuan/ton respectively, and the main contract closed at 1697 yuan/ton (-1.34%). - **Main Logic**: Supply is high, agricultural demand has not yet been concentrated, and industrial demand is weak. Exports are expected to be reflected in mid - to - late June. - **Outlook**: The domestic supply is strong while demand is weak, and spot prices may be under pressure. The futures market is expected to move sideways with a weak bias [21]. Variety Data Monitoring Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spreads**: Different品种have different inter - period spread values and changes. For example, SC's M1 - M2 spread is 4 (-1), and WTI's M1 - M2 spread is 0.94 (-0.01) [29]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each品种has its own basis and warehouse receipt data. For example, the asphalt basis is 222 (+36), and the warehouse receipt is 91510 [30]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: There are also inter - variety spread data, such as 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 121 (-17) [31].

Core Viewpoint - OPEC+ led by Saudi Arabia and Russia is rapidly increasing oil production quotas to reclaim market share lost to North American shale oil producers, but actual production increases have not yet materialized significantly, keeping Brent crude prices stable around $65-66 per barrel [1][3] Group 1: OPEC+ Production Strategy - OPEC+ announced an increase in oil production quotas by approximately 1 million barrels per day from March to June, but actual production growth remains challenging [1][3] - Despite the increase in quotas, Saudi Arabia's oil production has not shown significant improvement post-announcement [1][3] - Investment firms, including Morgan Stanley, believe this shift aims to regain market share from North American competitors and penalize OPEC+ members who consistently exceed production quotas [3] Group 2: Market Outlook and Price Predictions - Morgan Stanley forecasts that OPEC+ core members' oil supply will increase by about 420,000 barrels per day from June to September, with half of this increase expected from Saudi Arabia [3] - The firm maintains a bearish outlook on overall oil supply, predicting an increase of approximately 1.1 million barrels per day from non-OPEC+ sources, exceeding the anticipated global demand increase of 800,000 barrels per day [3] - Goldman Sachs has downgraded its oil price forecasts, predicting a supply surplus that could lead to lower peak production levels for U.S. shale oil [4][5] Group 3: Price Forecast Adjustments - Goldman Sachs expects Brent crude prices to average $60 per barrel for the remainder of 2025 and $55 per barrel in 2026, down from previous estimates [5] - The firm also predicts WTI crude prices to average $56 per barrel in 2025 and $51 per barrel in 2026, reflecting a downward revision from earlier forecasts [5]

Group 1 - Speculators exhibit strong bearish sentiment, with net short positions in U.S. corn futures reaching a nine-month high [1] - Market expectations are divided on whether there will be a supply surplus or shortage [1] - Negative sentiment in the U.S. biofuel market is impacting oilseed futures [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Ratings - Alumina futures: Oscillating with a bearish bias [3] - Stock index futures: Bullish, recommend buying on dips [6] - Gold: Bullish in the long - term, recommend buying on dips [11] - Iron ore: Oscillating with a bullish bias [14] - Glass: Oscillating with a bullish bias for now [17] - Urea: Expected to be weak in the short - term [20] 2) Core Viewpoints - On June 5, 2025, the sharp drop in alumina futures attracted market attention. The supply - demand imbalance, with over - capacity on the supply side and weak demand, may lead to continued downward pressure on prices, but Guinea's mining policies bring uncertainties [3]. - A - shares closed up for three consecutive days. The financial regulatory authority's support for science and technology innovation and the research on science and technology insurance policies are positive for the market [6][7]. - Gold is in a short - term oscillating pattern but is bullish in the long run [11]. - For iron ore, although there are risks of over - valuation due to weak reality, the continuous decline in port inventory supports the market [14][15]. - For glass, the supply side has no major cold - repair due to losses, and demand needs the stimulation of real estate policies [17][18]. - Urea has a high daily output and slow agricultural demand, so it is expected to be weak in the short - term [20]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Alumina Futures - On June 5, 2025, the futures price dropped nearly 3% at the morning close. Supply is increasing due to new capacity and restored supply from Guinea, while demand is weak with low downstream purchasing willingness [3]. Stock Index Futures - A - shares had three consecutive positive closes. The financial regulatory authority's support for science and technology innovation and policy research on science and technology insurance are positive. Recommend buying on dips [6][7]. Gold - Gold is in a short - term oscillating pattern, but long - term bullish. Recommend buying on dips and avoid chasing high prices [10][11]. Iron Ore - At the end of the quarter, mines are increasing shipments, and iron - water production is seasonally weak. However, the continuous decline in port inventory supports the market. Consider an oscillating and bullish view [14][15]. Glass - The supply side has no major cold - repair due to losses, and factory inventories are high. Downstream demand needs the effect of real - estate stimulation policies. Technically, it oscillated down today but did not break the low in the daily - line level. Keep an oscillating and bullish view for now [17][18]. Urea - The domestic daily output is about 205600 tons, with an operating rate of about 87.23%. Agricultural demand is slow, and downstream follow - up is limited. The price is expected to be weak in the short - term [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Nickel - Rolling short selling [1] - Stainless steel - Hold [1] - Zinc - Bearish outlook [3] 2. Core Views Nickel and Stainless Steel - The Fed's "Beige Book" shows a pessimistic economic outlook, with increased policy uncertainty and price pressures. Nickel remains in a range - bound pattern. Nickel ore prices are seasonally weak, and the overall supply of nickel is in surplus. Demand is weak, with the main operating range between 118,000 - 133,000 yuan, and the core operating range between 120,000 - 127,000 yuan [1][2] Zinc - From January to April, the revenue and profit of large - scale non - ferrous metal industrial enterprises increased. Zinc supply is generally loose, while demand has some resilience but is expected to be weak in the short term. Overall, it is bearish [3][4] 3. Summary by Directory Macro & Industry News - For nickel and stainless steel, the Fed's "Beige Book" on June 4 shows that US economic activity has declined slightly, with increased policy uncertainty and price pressures. Some regions' enterprises increased procurement due to tariffs, and the residential real estate market was basically flat [1] - For zinc, from January to April, 11,945 large - scale non - ferrous metal industrial enterprises had a revenue of 3.08779 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 18.0%. The revenue profit margin was 4.15%, 0.39 percentage points higher than the same period last year [3] Supply - **Nickel**: Philippine nickel ore shipments and domestic arrivals have increased, and nickel ore prices have weakened seasonally. Domestic nickel - iron production has slightly decreased, while Indonesian nickel - iron production has increased rapidly (year - on - year increase over 30%, month - on - month increase over 10%). Domestic nickel - iron imports and total supply are high, remaining in surplus. Electrolytic nickel production has a small month - on - month decrease but a year - on - year increase of over 45% [1] - **Zinc**: During the narrow - range fluctuation of zinc prices, the profit per ton of mining enterprises is about 4,000 yuan/ton. The processing fees in the north and south have returned to 3,500 yuan/ton. Both integrated and smelting enterprises will maintain high production, and the supply of zinc ingots is generally loose [3] Demand - **Nickel**: In the process of producing nickel sulfate from nickel beans, the cost of nickel is about 127,000 yuan. The demand support for downstream nickel sulfate is about 126,700 yuan/ton, and the profit threshold for external procurement manufacturers has dropped to 133,000 yuan/ton. Nickel - iron and stainless - steel integrated manufacturers previously had high stainless - steel production, but nickel - iron profits have shrunk since May, which may affect stainless - steel production. Overall, demand is weak [2] - **Zinc**: Galvanized production capacity has expanded, but utilization and output are low, and manufacturers' production enthusiasm is low. Zinc oxide's upward trend is due to seasonal demand, with limited upside. Die - casting alloy production has increased, but there is an expectation of a decline in downstream operating rates. Overall, short - term zinc demand is difficult to improve significantly, but there is still resilience [4] Conclusion - **Nickel and stainless steel**: The main operating range is between 118,000 - 133,000 yuan, and the core operating range is between 120,000 - 127,000 yuan. It is recommended to take partial profits on previous short positions and roll short after rebounds [2] - **Zinc**: The impact of tariffs has temporarily subsided. Short - term supply is stable with a slight increase, and the demand peak season has passed. Manufacturers are pessimistic about the terminal, so it is bearish overall. It is recommended to short with a light position [4][5]