投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 5 月 16 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 螺纹钢供需格局尚可，叠加市场情绪回暖，钢材期价低位回升，但鉴于需求面临季节性走弱， 高供应下需求转弱则螺纹基本面矛盾将累积，钢价继续承压，相对利好则是库存低位以及情绪偏 暖，短期走势延续震荡企稳，关注需求表现情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2510 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 供需格局尚可，钢价震荡企稳 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 专业研究·创造价值 1 / ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - For copper, overnight LME copper rose slightly and then declined. The domestic demand orders may gradually slow down as the peak season turns to the off - season. The Sino - US trade negotiation progress is expected to boost copper prices in the short term. Copper prices are expected to reach the range of 78,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton, but attention should be paid to the downstream acceptance and potential price fluctuations [1]. - For aluminum, alumina and Shanghai aluminum are oscillating strongly. Aluminum ingots continue to show a slight de - stocking state. The short - strong and long - weak pattern of aluminum prices continues. Attention should be paid to the inventory - consumption situation and subsequent tariff negotiation dynamics [1][2]. - For nickel, macro sentiment has improved, and the Philippine nickel ore event has attracted market attention. In the short term, nickel ore is relatively strong, but the overall trend is still oscillating. If domestic primary nickel continues to accumulate inventory, it will put pressure on nickel prices [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Trump pressured the Fed Chairman Powell to cut interest rates, and the dollar's V - shaped trend restricted copper price increases. China's April social financing and new RMB loans data and M2 - M1 spread changes were reported. LME copper inventory decreased by 4,075 tons, while COMEX inventory increased by 1,749 tons. Domestic demand orders are relatively stable but may slow down. Sino - US trade progress is expected to boost copper prices, with prices expected to reach 78,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton, but attention should be paid to downstream acceptance and potential price drops [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina and Shanghai aluminum are oscillating strongly. Alumina AO2509 closed at 2,979 yuan/ton with a 3.51% increase, and AL2506 closed at 20,255 yuan/ton with a 0.67% increase. Aluminum ingot prices changed from a discount to a premium. Some downstream processing fees changed. Aluminum ingots continued to de - stock slightly. The short - strong and long - weak pattern of aluminum prices continues, and attention should be paid to inventory - consumption and tariff negotiations [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight LME nickel rose 0.35%, and Shanghai nickel rose 0.92%. LME inventory decreased by 84 tons, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 398 tons. Nickel ore prices are strong, and some stainless steel production has decreased, but demand - side inventory has increased. In the new energy sector, raw material supply has recovered, and the demand for ternary precursors has decreased slightly. In the short term, the market sentiment has improved, but overall, it is still oscillating, and attention should be paid to inventory changes [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: Price changes of various copper products such as flat - water copper, scrap copper, and downstream products were reported. LME and COMEX inventory changes, as well as other indicators such as LME0 - 3 premium and import profit and loss, were also provided [3]. - **Lead**: The average price and other indicators of lead remained stable, with some minor changes in lead ore prices and processing fees. LME and SHFE inventory changes and import profit and loss were also reported [3]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices, raw material prices, downstream processing fees, and inventory changes in LME, SHFE, and social inventories were reported. Import profit and loss and other indicators were also provided [4]. - **Nickel**: Price changes of various nickel products, including electrolytic nickel, nickel iron, nickel ore, stainless steel, and new energy products, were reported. Inventory changes in LME, SHFE, and social inventories, as well as import profit and loss, were also provided [4]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices, including the main settlement price, spot price, and alloy price, increased. TC remained stable, and inventory changes in LME, SHFE, and social inventories were reported [5]. - **Tin**: The main settlement price of tin increased, and the price of tin concentrate also rose. Inventory changes in LME and SHFE, as well as import profit and loss, were reported [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **3.1 Spot Premium**: Charts of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 were presented [7][8][11]. - **3.2 SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts of the near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 were presented [12][15][18]. - **3.3 LME Inventory**: Charts of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 were presented [20][22][23]. - **3.4 SHFE Inventory**: Charts of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 were presented [25][27][29]. - **3.5 Social Inventory**: Charts of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 - 2025 were presented [31][33][35]. - **3.6 Smelting Profit**: Charts of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 were presented [38][40][42]. 3.4有色金属团队介绍 - **展大鹏**: Holds a science master's degree, serves as the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher of precious metals, a gold intermediate investment analyst, an excellent metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial product futures analyst of Futures Daily & Securities Times. Has over a decade of commodity research experience, serves many leading spot enterprises, and has published dozens of professional articles in public newspapers and magazines [45]. - **王珩**: Holds a finance master's degree from the University of Adelaide, Australia. Serves as a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon. Focuses on domestic non - ferrous industry research and new energy industry chain dynamics [45]. - **朱希**: Holds a science master's degree from the University of Warwick, UK. Serves as a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel. Focuses on the integration of non - ferrous metals and new energy and tracks new energy industry chain dynamics [46].

IL期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年5月15日 Z0020680 苗扬 期货收盘价 | 品种 | 5月14日 | 5月13日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 01合约 | 1814 | 1798 | 16 | 0.89% | 元/吨 | | 05合约 | 1900 | 1930 | -30 | -1.55% | | | 09合约 | 1886 | 1897 | =11 | -0.58% | | | 甲醇主力合约 Hm = A / L / A 3 / | 2365 | 2291 | 74 | 3.23% | | 期货合约价差 | 价差 | 5月14日 | 5月13日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 01合约-05合约 | -86 | -132 | 46 | 34.85% | | | 05合约-09合约 | 14 | 33 | -19 | -57.58% | | | 09合约-01合约 | 72 | дд | ...

Group 1: Report Core View - This week, the high-sulfur crack fluctuated, the 380 near-end ran strongly, and the basis fluctuated. The low-sulfur crack continued to strengthen, the monthly spread strengthened, and the basis fluctuated. Singapore's onshore inventory decreased significantly, ARA's decreased slightly, and the US residual oil inventory increased significantly. Singapore's high-sulfur floating storage increased significantly, with overall inventory accumulation, while the Middle East's floating storage decreased, and Saudi Arabia's exports increased significantly. Fujairah's floating storage and Europe's floating storage increased. Recently, the low-sulfur market has strengthened marginally, and attention should be paid to the subsequent realization of supply increments. The high-sulfur market fluctuates at a high level, with profits higher than the historical average. This year, affected by consumption tax deductions and tariff adjustments in China, the refinery feed demand for fuel oil has declined significantly, and the bunker fuel demand is expected to be weaker year-on-year due to tariff impacts. In the future, attention should be paid to the power generation demand and procurement demand, as well as the medium-term short allocation opportunity for the high-sulfur crack [6][7] Group 2: Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data - From May 8 to May 14, 2025, the prices of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 changed from 385.77 to 406.15, a decrease of 2.28; Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 changed from 431.14 to 451.49, a decrease of 0.76; Rotterdam HSFO-Brent M1 changed from -1.51 to -1.58, a decrease of 0.19; Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 changed from 571.02 to 606.04, an increase of 3.48; Rotterdam VLSFO-G M1 changed from -139.88 to -154.55, a decrease of 4.24; LGO-Brent M1 changed from 16.22 to 17.57, an increase of 0.91; Rotterdam VLSFO-HSFO M1 changed from 45.37 to 45.34, an increase of 1.52 [4] Group 3: Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data - From May 8 to May 14, 2025, the prices of Singapore 380cst M1 changed from 402.45 to 433.27; Singapore 180cst M1 changed from 412.95 to 442.48; Singapore VLSFO M1 changed from 467.39 to 498.06; Singapore GO M1 changed from 76.00 to 81.58; Singapore 380cst-Brent M1 changed from 2.28 to 2.53; Singapore VLSFO-GO M1 changed from -95.01 to -105.63 [4] Group 4: Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data - From May 8 to May 14, 2025, the FOB 380cst price changed from 402.67 to 432.78, an increase of 4.14; the FOB VLSFO price changed from 481.67 to 511.73, an increase of 16.22; the 380 basis changed from -1.30 to -1.45, a decrease of 2.45; the high-sulfur domestic and foreign price difference changed from 7.6 to 7.9, a decrease of 0.3; the low-sulfur domestic and foreign price difference changed from 11.9 to 17.0, an increase of 0.7 [5] Group 5: Domestic FU Data - From May 8 to May 14, 2025, the prices of FU 01 changed from 2584 to 2755, an increase of 46; FU 05 changed from 2566 to 2697, an increase of 32; FU 09 changed from 2707 to 2893, an increase of 54; FU 01 - 05 changed from 18 to 58, an increase of 14; FU 05 - 09 changed from -141 to -196, a decrease of 22; FU 09 - 01 changed from 123 to 138, an increase of 8 [5] Group 6: Domestic LU Data - From May 8 to May 14, 2025, the prices of LU 01 changed from 3237 to 3451, an increase of 76; LU 05 changed from 3219 to 3401, an increase of 141; LU 09 changed from 3298 to 3521, an increase of 85; LU 01 - 05 changed from 18 to 50, a decrease of 65; LU 05 - 09 changed from -79 to -120, an increase of 56; LU 09 - 01 changed from 61 to 70, an increase of 9 [6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The demand side is suppressed by the traditional off - season in May, the demand for real - estate building materials is lower than expected, the overseas quotation continues to decline, but the arrival of goods is expected to decrease significantly this week. The weak balance pattern of the fundamentals persists, and the market is expected to fluctuate weakly [3][4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - On May 14, compared with May 13, the prices of log futures contracts 2507, 2509, and 2511 all increased, with increases of 0.76%, 0.50%, and 0.56% respectively. The basis of each contract decreased, and the spot prices of various types of logs in ports remained unchanged. The overseas CFR price of radiata pine 4 - meter medium A decreased by 3.51%, and the import theoretical cost decreased by 3% [2] Supply - In terms of monthly supply, the port throughput in April was 200.3 million cubic meters, a 24.17% increase from March. The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea increased by 13.79%. In terms of weekly inventory, as of April 25, the total inventory of Chinese logs decreased by 2.28%, with a decrease of 80,000 cubic meters [2][3] Demand - As of April 25, the daily average outbound volume of logs in China decreased by 10%, with a decrease of 0.71 million cubic meters. The daily average outbound volume in Shandong decreased by 15%, and in Jiangsu decreased by 6% [3]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The domestic "One Bank, One Commission, One Administration" policy slightly exceeded expectations, and the Sino - US negotiation achieved significant progress, but the current tariff level remains high, which may limit market optimism. The supply of copper ore and recycled copper remains tight, while consumption shows signs of marginal weakening, making it difficult for copper prices to continue rising in the short term [1]. - The domestic aluminum ingot is approaching its production capacity limit, and the continuous decline in short - term inventory strongly supports aluminum prices. However, due to the current seasonally weak consumption, the sustainability of demand improvement may face challenges, restricting the rebound height of aluminum prices [3]. - The port inventory of lead concentrate continues to rise, the waste inventory is limited, and the downstream battery enterprises' holiday has been extended. After the Sino - US economic and trade talks, the short - term commodity sentiment is strong, and the medium - term Shanghai lead index is expected to fluctuate within a range [4]. - The port inventory of zinc concentrate continues to rise, and the zinc ore surplus expectation remains unchanged. The zinc ingot inventory has slightly increased, but the domestic warehouse receipts remain at a low level. The Russian lead - zinc mine's expected shutdown in June may boost zinc prices from an emotional perspective [6]. - The supply of tin is currently tight but is expected to ease. The impact of tariffs on the demand side remains to be observed. If downstream demand remains weak, the tin price center may shift downward [7][8]. - The cost of nickel is expected to ease, and the spot demand is weak. Nickel prices should be treated with a bearish mindset [9]. - The short - term tariff change of lithium carbonate will bring additional orders, and the peak season is expected to continue. The futures price is likely to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the upstream and downstream operating rates and domestic inventory changes [11]. - The supply of alumina is subject to continuous disturbances, and the new production capacity has increased uncertainty. The cost support continues to decline. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see, and the medium - to - long - term supply surplus trend is difficult to change [13]. - The stainless steel market shows a differentiated trend of narrow cost fluctuations and rising spot prices, with significantly improved steel mill profits. The short - term market is resilient, but the medium - to - long - term trend depends on the game between terminal recovery intensity and the off - season cycle [15]. Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - Yesterday, LME copper closed down 0.34% at $9592/ton, and SHFE copper's main contract closed at 78,650 yuan/ton. LME inventory decreased by 4075 to 185,575 tons, and the cancellation warrant ratio dropped to 41.8%. In China, SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 21,000 to 50,000 tons. The spot in Shanghai was at a discount of 25 yuan/ton to the futures, and in Guangdong, it changed from a premium to a discount of 15 yuan/ton. The domestic copper spot import loss narrowed to about 250 yuan/ton, and the Yangshan copper premium declined. The refined - scrap copper price difference widened to 1680 yuan/ton. The expected operating range for SHFE copper's main contract today is 78,000 - 79,200 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M, it is $9500 - $9700/ton [1]. Aluminum - Yesterday, LME aluminum closed up 1.16% at $2522/ton, and SHFE aluminum's main contract closed at 20,255 yuan/ton. The position of the SHFE aluminum weighted contract decreased by 3000 to 545,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts increased by 1000 to 62,000 tons. The domestic aluminum ingot inventory in three regions decreased by 8000 to 471,000 tons, and the inventory of aluminum rods in Guangdong and Wuxi decreased by 4000 to 93,000 tons. The spot in East China was at a premium of 20 yuan/ton to the futures. The expected operating range for the domestic main contract today is 20,050 - 20,320 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M, it is $2480 - $2550/ton [3]. Lead - On Wednesday, the Shanghai lead index closed down 0.16% at 16,937 yuan/ton. LME lead 3S fell by $9 to $1984/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,750 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap lead price difference was 25 yuan/ton. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 48,300 tons, and the LME lead ingot inventory was 253,200 tons. The domestic social inventory increased to 47,600 tons. The medium - term Shanghai lead index is expected to fluctuate between 16,300 - 17,800 yuan/ton, and the short - term lead price shows a strong - side fluctuation [4]. Zinc - On Wednesday, the Shanghai zinc index closed up 1.69% at 22,605 yuan/ton. LME zinc 3S rose by $40 to $2732.5/ton. The SMM0 zinc ingot average price was 22,840 yuan/ton. The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 1600 tons, and the LME zinc ingot inventory was 168,000 tons. The domestic social inventory slightly decreased to 83,300 tons. The Russian lead - zinc mine is expected to shut down in June, which may boost zinc prices emotionally. The zinc price has rebounded slightly [6]. Tin - On May 14, 2025, the closing price of the SHFE tin main contract was 262,070 yuan/ton, down 0.43%. The SHFE registered warehouse receipts decreased by 60 to 8179 tons, and the LME inventory decreased by 15 to 2775 tons. The domestic tin ore is gradually resuming production, and the demand is affected by tariffs. The expected operating range for the domestic main contract is 250,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin, it is $30,000 - $33,000/ton [7][8]. Nickel - On Wednesday, the nickel price fluctuated upward. The closing price of the SHFE nickel main contract was 125,230 yuan/ton, up 1.11%, and the LME main contract closed at $15,800/ton, up 0.35%. The price of nickel ore from the Philippines remained stable, and the price of high - nickel pig iron in the market continued to weaken. The expected operating range for the SHFE nickel main contract today is 120,000 - 130,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M, it is $15,000 - $16,300/ton [9]. Lithium Carbonate - The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate closed at 64,727 yuan, down 0.13%. The LC2507 contract closed at 65,200 yuan, up 3.13%. The main contract's closing price was at a premium of 250 yuan to the MMLC average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate. The short - term tariff change will bring additional orders, and the futures price is likely to fluctuate. The expected operating range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate 2507 contract today is 64,200 - 66,000 yuan/ton [11]. Alumina - On May 14, 2025, the alumina index rose 3.54% to 2941 yuan/ton. The spot prices in various regions increased. The Shandong spot price was at a discount of 60 yuan/ton to the 07 contract. The overseas price also increased. The futures warehouse receipts decreased to 209,800 tons. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see, and the expected operating range for the domestic main contract AO2509 is 2700 - 3050 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - On Wednesday, the stainless steel main contract closed at 13,080 yuan/ton, up 1.16%. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi markets increased. The raw material prices were mostly stable. The futures inventory decreased to 158,809 tons, and the social inventory increased to 1.113 million tons. The short - term market is resilient, and the medium - to - long - term trend depends on terminal recovery and the off - season [15].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢早报—2025年5月15日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 沪镍 每日观点 1、基本面：外盘冲高回落，继续震荡运行。产业链来看，不锈钢表现偏弱，镍铁价格继续回落，成本 线继续下降，对后市预期偏弱。同时交易所仓单仍在减少流入现货，供应或继续增强。新能源产业链数 据表现良好，对中期预期较好。从中长线来看，精炼镍过剩格局不变。短期宏观拢动较多，要多关注宏 观政策影响。偏空 2、基差：现货126075，基差845，偏多 3、库存：LME库存198432，-84，上交所仓单23549，-398，偏空 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线以上，20均线向上，偏多 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减，偏空 6、结论：沪镍2506：震荡运行。 不锈钢 每日观点 1、基本面：现货不锈钢价格上涨，短期镍矿价 ...

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 5 月 14 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | 点评 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 隔夜 LME 铜震荡走高。宏观方面，美国劳工部公布，4 | | 月 CPI 同比增长 2.3%，略低于 | | | 预期和前值 2.4%；核心 CPI 同比增长 2.8%，持平于预期和前值 的关税政策普遍预计将推高通胀，但企业可能仍在消化大量库存，尚未开始全面提价， | | 2.8%。虽然特朗普政府 | | | 市场预计未来两三个月将逐步体现。同日，特朗普再次向美联储主席鲍威尔施压，要求 | | | | | 其降息。国内方面，中美达成关税协议后，海外投行纷纷上调中国经济增长预期。库存 | | | | 铜 | 方面，LME 铜库存下降 1100 吨至 189650 吨；comex | | 库存增加 1500 吨至 149788 吨。国 | | | 内需求方面，当前订单相对平稳，但旺季转淡季预期下，终端需求订单可能逐步放缓。 | | | | | 中美贸易谈判取得超预期进展，预计将继续推动风险偏好回升，对铜而言有望短线继续 | | | | | 得到 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper price is expected to maintain a high - level shock, aluminum price rebound sustainability remains to be seen, nickel is expected to show a weak shock, and tin price volatility is expected to increase [1][2][5][6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Base Metals Copper - As of May 13, the main 06 contract of Shanghai copper rose 0.08% to 78,090 yuan/ton. The easing of global trade tensions makes the copper price return to the fundamental logic. The TC of copper concentrates continues to decline, and the subsequent output of smelters may decline. The consumption is stable but the high monthly spread restricts it. Technically, it runs between 74,500 - 80,000 yuan, and attention should be paid to the pressure at 78,500 yuan [1] Aluminum - As of May 13, the main 06 contract of Shanghai aluminum rose 1.27% to 20,005 yuan/ton. Bauxite supply increases and prices decline. Alumina production capacity decreases, and electrolytic aluminum production capacity increases. The downstream开工 rate has a weakening expectation. The aluminum price rebounds, but the sustainability needs to be observed [2] Nickel - As of May 13, the main 06 contract of Shanghai nickel fell 1.52% to 123,860 yuan/ton. The inflation cools down, and the domestic manufacturing PMI declines. The nickel ore price is firm, the refined nickel is in surplus, the nickel - iron has support but is also in surplus, and the stainless - steel is in the off - season. The cost of nickel sulfate rises, but the demand is weak. It is expected to run weakly [3][5] Tin - As of May 13, the main 06 contract of Shanghai tin rose 0.37% to 262,070 yuan/ton. The domestic refined tin output may decrease, and the import of tin concentrates decreases. The semiconductor industry is expected to recover. The tin ore supply is tight, and the mine has a strong resumption expectation. The price volatility is expected to increase, and the operation range is 250,000 - 275,000 yuan/ton [6] Spot Transaction Summary Copper - The domestic spot copper price falls. After the copper price rises, the downstream's willingness to receive goods decreases, and the actual transaction activity is limited [7] Aluminum - The spot aluminum price rises. The holders' willingness to sell is slow at first, but the high price stimulates some profit - taking. The downstream only makes purchases at low prices, and the overall transaction is dull [8] Alumina - The spot price of alumina rises slightly. The transaction in the spot market becomes dull, and the downstream electrolytic aluminum enterprises make rigid purchases [9] Zinc - The spot zinc price falls. The activity in the spot trading market decreases, and the downstream users adopt a price - pressing and quantity - limiting strategy [10] Lead - The spot lead price remains unchanged. The downstream maintains rigid purchases and sales [11] Nickel - The spot nickel price falls. The merchants make rigid purchases at low prices, and the inquiry enthusiasm increases [12] Tin - The spot tin price falls. The merchants make rigid purchases, and the overall transaction activity is stable [13] Warehouse Receipt and Inventory Report - For SHFE, copper, lead, and nickel futures warehouse receipts increase, while aluminum, zinc, and tin futures warehouse receipts decrease. For LME, copper, zinc, and aluminum inventories decrease, while lead, nickel inventories increase, and tin inventory remains unchanged [15]

Inventory Analysis - As of February, the overall actual inventory-to-sales ratio in the U.S. manufacturing and trade sectors is approximately 1.5 months, with manufacturers at 1.9 months, wholesalers at 1.3 months, and retailers at 1.4 months, all at low percentiles since the pandemic[2] - If assuming that the inventory of manufacturers, wholesalers, and retailers only serves domestic retail sales, the overall inventory could cover about 4.2 months of sales[2] - The low inventory-to-sales ratio may indicate limited buffer space against supply-demand imbalances, potentially leading to upward pressure on inflation[2] Industry-Specific Insights - In the retail sector, the actual inventory-to-sales ratio for furniture, appliances, and consumer electronics is low at only 1 month, placing it in the 6.5% percentile since the pandemic[3] - Conversely, the inventory-to-sales ratio for motor vehicles and parts, as well as building materials, exceeds 2 months, with motor vehicles at approximately 2.5 months (88.5% percentile) and building materials at about 2 months (85.2% percentile)[3] - In manufacturing and wholesale, machinery, textile raw materials, and related products have higher inventory-to-sales ratios, all exceeding 2 months, with machinery at 2.9 months (83.6% percentile) and textile raw materials at 2.8 months (70.4% percentile)[3] PMI and Inventory Trends - As of April, the ISM manufacturing PMI inventory index decreased to 50.8% from 53.4% in March, indicating a cooling in pre-tariff stockpiling behavior[4] - The customer inventory index remains low at 46.2%, suggesting concerns about the sustainability of overall manufacturing inventory levels[4] - Among 18 manufacturing sectors, 5 reported increased inventory in April, while 8 sectors, including textiles and transportation equipment, saw declines[4]