Group 1 - The current cycle sector has seen significant increases due to policy-driven improvements in fundamental expectations and relatively low valuations in certain industries [1][9] - The "anti-involution" policy has led to improved fundamental expectations in cyclical industries, with notable price increases in commodities such as lithium carbonate (up 22.3%), polysilicon (up 63.6%), and glass (up 28.4%) as of July 24, 2025 [2][9] - As of July 1, 2025, the PE valuation percentiles for agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, non-ferrous metals, and electric power equipment are at historical lows of 6%, 23%, and 32% respectively, indicating potential for upward valuation adjustments [2][9] Group 2 - The strength of the "anti-involution" policy suggests that cyclical market trends may continue in the short term, with historical precedents from 2016 and 2020 indicating that strong policy measures can lead to significant price increases in affected industries [3][17] - Current cyclical industries still have room for valuation increases, with historical data showing that during major cyclical markets, valuations can rise above 70% [3][27] - Industries such as automotive, electric new energy, chemicals, construction, and coal are expected to benefit from improved fundamentals due to the "anti-involution" policy [4][31] Group 3 - The automotive sector is facing challenges due to price wars in the new energy vehicle market, but recent government meetings aim to stabilize pricing and improve profitability [31] - The electric new energy sector, particularly solar energy, is a focus of the "anti-involution" policy, which aims to eliminate low-price competition and enhance product quality [31] - The chemical industry has seen weakened product prices and low capacity utilization, but the "anti-involution" policy may help restore prices for high-involution products like plastics [31]

Group 1 - The chemical sector continues to rise, with the Chemical ETF (516020) showing a maximum intraday increase of 1.83% and closing up 1.53% [1] - Notable stocks in the sector include lithium battery, soda ash, and fluorine chemical companies, with significant gains from Hebang Biological (up 4.76%) and Tianci Materials (up 4.03%) [1] - The chemical sector has attracted significant capital, with a net inflow of 26.418 billion yuan over the past five days, ranking second among 30 sectors [1][3] Group 2 - The "anti-involution" policy is benefiting the lithium battery sector, as it leads to project delays and a healthier supply-demand balance [3] - The chemical industry is currently at the bottom of the cycle, facing challenges from increased competition, but supply-side reforms are expected to optimize the industry structure [4] - The current valuation of the Chemical ETF (516020) is at a low point, suggesting a good opportunity for long-term investment [4] Group 3 - The chemical sector is expected to undergo a re-pricing based on cost factors, focusing on green and low-carbon initiatives [5] - Domestic policies frequently emphasize supply-side requirements, while international uncertainties in chemical supply are increasing [5] - The Chemical ETF (516020) provides a diversified investment opportunity across various sub-sectors, with a significant portion allocated to large-cap leading stocks [6]

丨证券研究报告丨 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 本轮债市的调整空间和可能拐点 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 今年 7 月 15 日-7 月 24 日，债市面临调整压力。当前债市对价格敏感，包括股票为代表的资产 价格，以及各类"反内卷"和供给侧改革相关的商品期货现货价格指数。物价改善的方式之一， 是改善当前的融资挤占问题，使得产出缺口回正；物价改善的另一种方式，是为价格的快速上 涨找到需求方，内部加杠杆、外部出口改善。债市对货币流动性及基本面不太敏感，这两点在 未来一段时间可能都不构成债市交易主线。关注通胀变化及主要整改行业的物价传导情况，观 察 10 年期国债收益率在 1.75%-1.8%之间是否出现拐点。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% 赵增辉 马玮健 SAC：S0490524080003 SFC：BVN394 %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title2] 本轮债市的调整空间和可能拐点 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 近期（7 月 15 日-7 月 23 日，下同）债市面临 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Ferroalloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: July 24, 2025 - Analyst: Chen Mintao (Z0022731) [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - Last week, driven by anti - involution sentiment, ferroalloy prices maintained a slow upward trend. After the Friday close, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced a plan to stabilize growth in key industries such as steel, strengthening market expectations for supply - side reform. Recently, the overall price center of the black sector has shifted upward, and coal prices have gradually strengthened, supporting the rise of ferroalloy prices. In the short term, ferroalloy prices are optimistic. The current supply - demand contradiction of ferroalloy is relatively small, with silicon - manganese in a destocking trend and silicon - iron having high inventory but supported by coal prices. The current price increase is mainly driven by market sentiment, and the fundamental resonance is not strong. Attention should be paid to the implementation of policy expectations [4]. Summary by Directory Ferroalloy Price Range Forecast - Silicon - iron price range forecast (monthly): 5300 - 6000 yuan/ton, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 25.65%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 69.0% - Silicon - manganese price range forecast (monthly): 5300 - 6000 yuan/ton, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 15.48%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 28.5% [3] Ferroalloy Hedging - **Inventory Management**: When the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, to prevent inventory depreciation losses, enterprises can short ferroalloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) according to their inventory, with a hedging ratio of 15%. The recommended entry range is SF: 6200 - 6250, SM: 6400 - 6500 [3]. - **Procurement Management**: When the regular procurement inventory is low and enterprises want to purchase according to orders, to prevent price increases from raising procurement costs, they can buy ferroalloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 25%. The recommended entry range is SF: 5100 - 5200, SM: 5300 - 5400 [3]. 利多解读 (Positive Factors) Silicon - iron - The profit in Inner Mongolia production area is - 171 yuan/ton (+90.5), and in Ningxia production area is - 44 yuan/ton (+54) - This week, the silicon - iron enterprise inventory is 6.35 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.54% - Pig iron production has increased more than expected [7] Silicon - manganese - The government's control policy on high - energy - consuming industries remains strict, and the silicon - manganese industry may undergo industrial structure adjustment and upgrading under policy regulation - The profit in the northern region is - 57.9 yuan/ton (+100.58), and in the southern region is - 393.26 yuan/ton (+96.32) - Silicon - manganese enterprise inventory is 21.63 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.04%; silicon - manganese warehouse receipts are 39.97 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6%; total silicon - manganese inventory is 61.6 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.64% - Pig iron production has increased more than expected [8] 利空解读 (Negative Factors) Silicon - iron - Silicon - iron warehouse - receipt inventory is 10.98 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.02%; total silicon - iron inventory is 17.33 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.29% - This week, the demand for silicon - iron in five major steel products is 2 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.99% - The weekly operating rate of silicon - iron production enterprises is 32.45%, a week - on - week increase of 1.25%, and the weekly output is 10 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.32% [9] Silicon - manganese - In the long term, the real - estate market is sluggish, the black sector as a whole is declining, and the market has doubts about the growth of terminal steel demand, resulting in relatively weak silicon - manganese demand - The demand for silicon - manganese in five major steel products is 12.34 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2% [9] Daily Data Silicon - iron - On July 24, 2025, the basis in Ningxia is 68 (a day - on - day increase of 292, a week - on - week decrease of 74), and other basis and price data are also provided - The price of blue charcoal small materials remains unchanged at 540, Qinhuangdao thermal coal is 649 (a day - on - day increase of 2, a week - on - week increase of 12), and Yulin thermal coal remains unchanged at 510 - Silicon - iron warehouse receipts are 22124 (a day - on - day decrease of 26, a week - on - week increase of 174) [9] Silicon - manganese - On July 24, 2025, the basis in Inner Mongolia is 162 (a day - on - day increase of 124, a week - on - week decrease of 38), and other basis, price and warehouse - receipt data are also provided [10][11] Seasonal Data - Seasonal data for silicon - iron and silicon - manganese include market price, basis, futures spread, and inventory, covering multiple years and different contracts [12][13][15][16][19][20][22][23][25][26][29][30][31]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The intensity of anti-involution policies may be the biggest source of expectation divergence. In the short term, the bond market may remain weak, and the window for going long on bonds in the third quarter may be postponed. In the long term, anti-involution may help shorten the time required for a moderate recovery of inflation, and profound changes may be gradually occurring beneath the seemingly calm economic fundamentals [1][2][3]. - Compared with supply-side reform, the current anti-involution has a broader scope and can be seen as an upgraded version. It faces more complex supply-demand contradictions, a more challenging macro environment, and involves a wider range of industries [1][10]. - The market has different views on the ultimate intensity of anti-involution. Some investors believe that relying solely on supply-side anti-involution may not achieve policy goals due to weak demand, but it is unwise to underestimate the determination of the current anti-involution policies [2][18][19]. Summary by Directory 1. Fixed-income Perspective on the "Anti-involution Trading" Market - The anti-involution policy has driven the simultaneous rise of the equity and commodity markets, suppressing bond market sentiment and creating a seesaw effect between stocks/commodities and bonds. Understanding this policy is crucial for predicting the future bond market [10]. - The anti-involution policy has evolved from a framework to specific measures, triggering a "anti-involution trading" market in the commodity market. Compared with supply-side reform, anti-involution faces more complex supply-demand contradictions, a more challenging macro environment, and involves a wider range of industries [10][11][14]. - There are differences in investors' views on the ultimate intensity of anti-involution. Some think that the policy may fall short of expectations due to weak demand, but the current stage may just be the beginning of the policy implementation, and its intensity may exceed expectations. Moreover, demand-side issues should be viewed dialectically, and there is a possibility of positive feedback in the economy [2][18][19]. - In the short term, the bond market is likely to be influenced by the performance of the equity and commodity markets. The equity market has a bullish atmosphere, and the upcoming Sino-US-Sweden negotiations may boost the market. The commodity market may have a trend reversal, similar to the "924 market" in the equity market in 2024. The short-term bond market may be weak, and the window for going long may be postponed [3][22][23]. - In the long term, the impact of anti-involution on inflation needs further observation, but it may shorten the time for a moderate inflation recovery, and underlying changes may be taking place in the economic fundamentals [3][24].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions, important information, logical analysis, and trading strategies of various metals including precious metals, copper, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, cast aluminum alloy, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate. Overall, the uncertainty of US tariffs and policies will bring inflation rebound and economic slowdown, and the independence of the Federal Reserve is also unknown. Precious metals are expected to remain in a pattern of being easy to rise and difficult to fall. Other metals are affected by factors such as supply and demand, policies, and market sentiment, showing different trends and investment suggestions [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Market Review**: London gold fell 1.3% to $3386.7 per ounce after three - day gains, London silver fell 0.12% to $39.216 per ounce. Affected by the external market, Shanghai gold futures fell 0.78% to 785.26 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver futures fell 0.36% to 9431 yuan per kilogram. The US dollar index fell 0.18% to 97.214, the 10 - year US Treasury yield dropped to 4.39%, and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar rose 0.21% to 7.1547 [3]. - **Important Information**: There are developments in trade negotiations between the US and other major economies, and the Federal Reserve's situation has eased market risk - aversion. The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in July is 97.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 2.6%. In September, the probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged is 37.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 61.2% [3]. - **Logical Analysis**: The uncertainty of US tariffs and policies will bring inflation rebound and economic slowdown, and the independence of the Federal Reserve is also unknown. Precious metals are expected to remain in a pattern of being easy to rise and difficult to fall [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Consider holding long positions based on the 5 - day moving average for unilateral trading; hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [5][6][7]. Copper - **Market Review**: The night - session Shanghai copper 2509 contract closed at 79680 yuan per ton, down 0.16%, and the Shanghai copper index increased its positions by 1404 lots to 513,000 lots. The overnight LME copper closed at $9933.5 per ton, up 0.36%. The LME inventory decreased by 25 tons to 125,000 tons, and the COMEX inventory increased by 418 tons to 244,000 tons [9][10]. - **Important Information**: The output of Vale and MMG's copper mines increased. Kazakhstan plans to double copper production by 2030, and a Canadian mining company hopes its project will be put into production in 2030. The 232 tariff will be implemented on August 1st, with a 50% tariff rate [13][14][15]. - **Logical Analysis**: The short - term market has increased expectations for a new round of supply - side reform and anti - deflation, and copper prices are running strongly. Supply is high, and it is in the consumption off - season, with limited upside potential [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: Copper prices are expected to run strongly in the short - term for unilateral trading; hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [16]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The night - session alumina 2509 contract fell 53 yuan to 3366 yuan per ton. The spot price in the north rose, and the national weighted index also increased [18]. - **Important Information**: Policies to eliminate backward production capacity are about to be released. There were spot transactions in Shandong and Vietnam. The alumina warehouse receipts on July 23 were 6922 tons, unchanged from the previous day. The production of some factories in Shanxi has changed [19][20][21]. - **Logical Analysis**: The market has optimistic expectations for policies, but details are yet to be determined. The current warehouse receipts are at a low level. If the increase in warehouse receipts is limited, the alumina price will still be supported above the full cost of high - cost production capacity [22]. - **Trading Strategy**: Alumina prices will fluctuate widely in the short - term for unilateral trading; hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [23][24]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The night - session Shanghai aluminum 2508 contract rose 70 yuan per ton to 20960 yuan per ton. The spot price of aluminum ingots in different regions increased. The price of thermal coal also rose [26]. - **Important Information**: The inventory of electrolytic aluminum in major markets increased, and the warehouse receipts of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased. The housing completion area decreased, and there were trade negotiations between the US and other countries. The output of some aluminum plants increased, and the export and import volume of aluminum products changed [27][30][31]. - **Logical Analysis**: The negotiation of tariffs has made progress, and the LME aluminum price has rebounded. Domestically, policies to eliminate backward production capacity are expected to boost aluminum prices. The aluminum rod production has decreased, and the inventory of aluminum ingots may increase slightly. The aluminum consumption off - season may not be too serious [31]. - **Trading Strategy**: Aluminum prices will run strongly in the short - term for unilateral trading; hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [32]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The night - session cast aluminum alloy 2511 contract fell 70 yuan to 20140 yuan per ton. The spot price in different regions remained unchanged [35]. - **Important Information**: The weighted average full cost of the casting aluminum alloy industry in June increased, and the profit margin narrowed. The weekly production of casting aluminum alloy increased [35]. - **Logical Analysis**: The supply of alloy ingot enterprises is restricted by the shortage of scrap aluminum, and the demand is affected by the off - season. The futures price is mainly affected by the cost and aluminum price. Pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of buying spot and selling far - month futures [36]. - **Trading Strategy**: Cast aluminum alloy prices will fluctuate at a high level following the aluminum price for unilateral trading; consider arbitrage when the spot - futures price difference is above 300 - 400 yuan; hold a wait - and - see attitude for options [37][38]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The overnight LME zinc rose 0.23% to $2860 per ton, and the Shanghai zinc 2509 rose 0.15% to 22940 yuan per ton. The spot trading in Shanghai was light, and the spot premium and discount were weak [41]. - **Important Information**: The zinc production of some companies changed. From January to May, the global zinc concentrate production increased, while the refined zinc production decreased, and there was a cumulative surplus [42][43]. - **Logical Analysis**: Zinc prices may rebound in the short - term, but in the long - term, the supply of the mine end is sufficient, and the consumption is in the off - season, with the domestic social inventory likely to increase [44][45]. - **Trading Strategy**: Zinc prices are expected to be strong in the short - term, and profitable long positions can consider partial profit - taking; hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [46][47]. Lead - **Market Review**: The overnight LME lead rose 0.69% to $2028.5 per ton, and the Shanghai lead 2509 rose 0.03% to 16910 yuan per ton. The spot price remained unchanged, and the trading was light [49]. - **Important Information**: The supply of waste lead - acid batteries is stable, and the import and export volume of lead - acid batteries changed [49][50]. - **Logical Analysis**: In the short - term, the supply of lead ingots may improve, and the consumption of lead - acid batteries is not good but has peak - season expectations [51][52]. - **Trading Strategy**: Profitable long positions can leave the market temporarily, and try to go long lightly at low prices; hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [53]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The overnight LME nickel rose to $15575 per ton, and the inventory decreased. The Shanghai nickel rose to 123660 yuan per ton. The premium of spot nickel changed [55]. - **Important Information**: There was a project adjustment plan for nickel powder production. The third - round Sino - US trade negotiations will be held, and relevant work has been carried out for the problems of key enterprises in the non - ferrous metal industry [56]. - **Logical Analysis**: The market has optimistic expectations for policies, but nickel supply and demand are in surplus, and it is in the off - season. The short - term price follows the macro - sentiment [57]. - **Trading Strategy**: Follow the macro - atmosphere in the short - term for unilateral trading; hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage; sell deep - out - of - the - money put options for options [58][59][60]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main stainless - steel SS2509 contract fell to 12900 yuan per ton, and the spot price of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel was reported [62]. - **Important Information**: The purchase price of high - carbon ferrochrome by Shanxi Taigang decreased, and the high - nickel pig iron in Indonesia was traded [63]. - **Logical Analysis**: The market has optimistic expectations for policies, but the actual demand is not good. The cost has changed, and the market pays attention to the overall atmosphere [64]. - **Trading Strategy**: Stainless - steel prices will be strong in a volatile manner for unilateral trading; hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage [65][66]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures rose 0.58% after a sharp rise and fall, and the spot price rose [68][69]. - **Important Information**: A monomer enterprise in Shandong entered maintenance, and the supply decreased [70]. - **Logical Analysis**: The production of leading enterprises may decline in July, and there is a supply - demand gap before their resumption. The long - term trend depends on the resumption rhythm, and there is upward pressure in the short - term [71]. - **Trading Strategy**: Exit long positions for unilateral trading; hold put options for options; participate in reverse arbitrage for the 11th and 12th contracts and positive arbitrage for the 11th and 10th contracts for arbitrage [72]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The polysilicon futures rose 5.5% after a sharp callback, and the spot price increased [74]. - **Important Information**: The solar power generation capacity increased, but the new photovoltaic installation in June decreased [75]. - **Logical Analysis**: The increase in polysilicon prices can be transmitted to the downstream. The market has strong expectations for capacity integration, and the future trend depends on the number of warehouse receipts [76]. - **Trading Strategy**: Gradually exit long positions as the pressure on the market increases; buy protective put options for options; participate in reverse arbitrage for far - month contracts for arbitrage [77]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main lithium carbonate 2509 contract fell to 69380 yuan per ton, and the spot price increased [79]. - **Important Information**: The lithium concentrate export volume of Zimbabwe increased, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange raised the trading fee [80]. - **Logical Analysis**: Observe whether the trend changes after the increase in fees and warehouse receipts. There are concerns about supply reduction, and pay attention to relevant factors in the future [80]. - **Trading Strategy**: Follow the short - term trend for unilateral trading; hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage; sell deep - out - of - the - money put options for options [80][81][82].

Group 1 - The current supply-side reform has transitioned from "Three Reductions and One Supplement" to a new paradigm of "Anti-Involution + Supply Optimization," with the core goal shifting from resolving excess capacity to enhancing total factor productivity [6][27][41] - The "Anti-Involution" reform is expected to reshape the long-term pricing logic of commodity markets, benefiting technology-intensive manufacturing and enterprises with strong "new quality productivity" [6][27][41] - The structural upgrade of excess capacity is evident, with new sectors such as new energy vehicles and photovoltaics becoming significant areas of concern, indicating a shift from primary products to complex manufactured goods [6][27][41] Group 2 - The 2015 supply-side reform primarily targeted excess capacity in basic raw material industries, while the current reform addresses structural excess capacity across the entire industrial chain [6][27][41] - The "Anti-Involution" policies are expected to lead to improved terminal profits through reduced downstream supply, which will drive upstream price declines, resulting in a transfer of industry profits to downstream sectors [6][27][39] - The head enterprises are likely to emerge from the downturn first, initiating an upward cycle in the market [6][27][39] Group 3 - The historical context shows that both the 2015 and current reforms were prompted by prolonged periods of negative PPI, indicating a persistent oversupply issue [41] - The current economic backdrop includes a decline in real estate and weak external demand, leading to structural overcapacity in various sectors, including traditional industries and emerging sectors [41][39] - The "Anti-Involution" reform aims to correct market failures and establish a unified national market, addressing issues of low-price disorderly competition and promoting high-quality development [27][28][39]

新世纪期货： 近期交易重心在"反内卷+稳增长"，黑色市场情绪受到提振，盘面大幅拉涨后高位震荡盘整。全球铁矿 石发运总量3109.1万吨，环比增加122.0万吨，后续供应依然宽松。产业端淡季，五大钢材产量降，但铁 水产量环比涨2.63万吨至242.44万吨，铁矿港口库存小幅累库，铁矿基本面短期尚可。供给侧改革消息 扰动叠加钢铁行业稳增长预期带动黑色价格上涨，原料跟涨。中长期看，铁矿石中长期看整体呈现供应 逐步回升、需求相对低位、港口库存步入累库通道的局面，供需过剩格局不变，介于短期政策和情绪扰 动，铁矿跟随成材走势为主，铁矿关注800元/吨一线的支撑。 消息面 7月23日：全国主港铁矿石成交86.4万吨，环比下跌29.93%；远期现货成交123万吨。 6月份，澳大利亚最大的散装出口码头的铁矿石出货量飙升至创纪录的水平，表明铁矿石的海运供应充 足。皮尔巴拉港务局周四公布的数据显示，上个月黑德兰港的铁矿石出口量增至5460万吨，超过了一年 前创下的峰值。年初至今的出口量增至约2.88亿吨，略高于去年创下的2.869亿吨的半年纪录。 大利亚矿业公司FMG发布2025年第二季度（2025澳大利亚财年Q4）运营报告，报告 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that in Q2 2025, local government bonds outperformed similar-term national bonds, with a notable compression in yield spreads, particularly for 7Y and 10Y bonds, which saw a reduction of 12 basis points [1][3][8] - Institutional participation in local bond investments was strong, with insurance companies net buying 473 billion yuan in the secondary market, while the total scale of local bonds held by insurance companies reached 2.39 trillion yuan, reflecting a significant increase in net purchases due to the maturity of existing bonds [1][8][9] - Funds shifted from minimal participation in Q1 to net buying 45.4 billion yuan in Q2, focusing on long-duration bonds, particularly in the 20-30Y and 10-15Y ranges, indicating a preference for longer maturities [2][3][9] Group 2 - The report highlights that in Q2 2025, funds reduced their holdings in bonds with maturities of 10Y and below by 4.9 billion yuan while increasing their holdings in bonds with maturities above 10Y by 3.3 billion yuan, with a particular emphasis on 10-15Y bonds [2][23][27] - The distribution of local bonds held by funds shows that bonds with maturities of 3Y and below constituted approximately 61% of their holdings, while the difference between general bonds and special bonds held by funds was minimal, with proportions of 52% and 48% respectively [2][23][27] - The report notes a preference for bonds from regions like Jiangsu, Anhui, and Zhejiang, which accounted for 60% of total holdings, while funds increased their positions in bonds from regions like Guangxi and Sichuan, indicating a shift in regional preferences [2][27][33] Group 3 - The future strategy outlook suggests that the domestic market faces pressure from insufficient effective demand, and while "anti-involution" policies may optimize capacity, economic recovery will require improved demand [3][39][44] - The report identifies potential arbitrage opportunities in the issuance of 5Y, 7Y, and 10Y local bonds, with current spreads compressing to within 10 basis points, indicating a favorable environment for investment [3][39][44] - It is noted that the valuation of 30Y local bonds remains attractive, with a yield of 2.06% and a spread of 13 basis points over national bonds, suggesting continued investment value in these securities [3][39][44]

Group 1 - The chemical sector experienced a sudden surge, with the chemical ETF (516020) rising over 1% during trading, closing up 0.76% [1] - Key stocks in the sector, including lithium batteries, potash fertilizers, and resins, saw significant gains, with Tianqi Lithium rising over 4% and several others increasing by more than 3% [1] - The domestic chemical industry is trapped in a cycle of "expansion-price reduction-loss," leading to deteriorating profitability, prompting a need for capacity constraints to break this cycle [2][3] Group 2 - Leading companies in the chemical industry are expected to benefit significantly due to their lack of obsolete capacity, cost advantages, and high market share, which positions them for potential historical profit levels [3] - Current valuation metrics indicate that the chemical sector may present a favorable investment opportunity, with the chemical ETF's price-to-book ratio at 2.07, placing it in the lower 24.85% of the past decade [3] - The industry is anticipated to undergo a new round of supply-side reforms, improving domestic supply conditions and potentially leading to a long-term favorable cycle for the chemical sector [5] Group 3 - The chemical ETF (516020) tracks the CSI segmented chemical industry index, covering various sub-sectors, with nearly 50% of its holdings in large-cap leading stocks, allowing investors to capitalize on strong performers [5] - The focus should be on basic chemical products with cyclical attributes and leading companies with cost advantages, as the industry shifts towards green and low-carbon initiatives [4]