"从盈利预期看，物价有望合理回升，结构盈利修复可期。宏观层面，政策组合发力助推2026年物价合 理回升。"谭倩认为，政策强调提质增效，针对当前经济"供强需弱"的特征，实施更加积极有为的宏观 政策，继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，积极有效扩大国内需求，深入整治内卷式 竞争，着力稳定房地产市场，深化重点领域改革等，推动供需结构的持续改善，她预计2026年PPI同比 降幅稳步收窄直至转正，物价回升前景可期。 谭倩表示，三大支撑助力2026年企业盈利修复。第一是新质生产力逐步成为经济增长新引擎。随着我国 现代化产业体系建设加快推进，新质生产力稳步发展，人工智能、生物医药、新能源等新兴产业快速发 展，并成为经济增长的重要助推力，中央经济工作会议明确"加紧培育壮大新动能"，2026年新兴产业的 增长弹性会进一步凸显。第二是反内卷政策有望进一步深化提速。反内卷是"扩大内需、优化供给"的重 要抓手，主要举措是加快统一大市场建设、优化市场竞争秩序、加强重点行业产能治理、规范地方招商 引资行为，多措并举，优化供需格局。现阶段反内卷已在光伏、锂矿、化工等局部产业环节初有成效， 后续伴随政策表述转向"深入整治"，反内 ...

Core Viewpoint - The construction materials sector experienced a decline of 1.41% during the week of December 6-12, 2025, underperforming against the Shanghai Composite and Wind All A indices, which saw changes of -0.08% and +0.26% respectively, resulting in excess returns of -1.33% and -1.67% [1] Group 1: Cement Market - The national average price for high-standard cement was 354.8 yuan/ton, reflecting a slight increase of 0.2 yuan/ton from the previous week but a significant decrease of 69.2 yuan/ton compared to the same period in 2024 [2] - The average cement inventory level among sample enterprises was 64.8%, down 1.6 percentage points from the previous week but up 0.9 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The average cement shipment rate was 43.9%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points from the previous week and down 0.9 percentage points compared to 2024 [2] Group 2: Glass Market - The average price for float white glass was 1165.1 yuan/ton, up 1.2 yuan/ton from the previous week but down 247.0 yuan/ton year-on-year [2] - The inventory of float glass among sample enterprises was 5.542 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 133,000 heavy boxes from the previous week but an increase of 1.254 million heavy boxes compared to 2024 [2] - The domestic market for non-alkali roving yarn remained stable, with mainstream transaction prices for 2400tex non-alkali yarn ranging from 3250 to 3700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week [2] Group 3: Industry Outlook - The cement industry is expected to see a gradual improvement in profitability due to proactive supply-side adjustments, with a projected increase in clinker capacity utilization [6] - The glass industry is facing a supply contraction, which may provide price elasticity in 2026, although current conditions are characterized by widespread losses among producers [7] - The fiberglass sector anticipates stable growth in demand driven by wind power and new applications, with a projected increase in effective capacity for 2026 [4][5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economic growth slowed down in 2025 with a decline in quarterly GDP growth rates. Consumption was stable supported by policies, net - export performance exceeded expectations, and investment was the weakest contributor. The economic logic changed from high real growth with deflation in the first half to deflation repair with output deceleration in the second half. The "anti - involution" policy was a major influencing factor [2][5][90]. - In 2026, the inventory cycle is expected to recover, with the bottom likely in the second quarter. The economy will show a pattern of low in the first half and high in the second half, and the internal driving force will strengthen. The easing of Sino - US trade tensions and the slowdown of de - globalization will improve external demand. The real output growth rate will rise steadily, and supply - demand will re - balance [2][5][90]. - The government is likely to set the target of the annual real GDP growth rate at around 5.0% in 2026. Deflation will gradually turn into weak inflation, and the nominal GDP growth rate will improve significantly, which will be the foundation for the improvement of corporate revenue, profits, fiscal revenue, and household income in the long - term [2][5][90]. - The commodity market will continue to rebound in an oscillatory manner in 2026. In the first half, supply constraints and the "anti - involution" narrative will boost new energy and non - ferrous metals. In the second half, the structural market may turn into a systematic one, with a more widespread rise in prices and a reduction in the differences among industrial products. The rebound height of black products depends on the real estate situation. The long - term upward trend of precious metals remains unchanged [2][87][91]. Summary According to the Table of Contents Part 1: Economic Highlights in 2026 May Lie in Nominal Growth 1. External Disturbances End, the Cycle Hits Bottom, and Supply - Demand Will Re - balance - In 2025, industrial added - value growth was stable, and nominal output first declined and then rebounded. The economic growth logic in the second half was different from that in the first half. High - tech and equipment manufacturing industries had the fastest growth rates. The semiconductor industry output was concentrated upstream. The main problem was the imbalance between supply and demand due to weak external and internal demand [15]. - The inventory cycle is expected to recover in 2026, with the bottom likely in the second quarter. The economy will show a pattern of low in the first half and high in the second half. The easing of Sino - US trade tensions will improve external demand. High - tech manufacturing will remain strong, while traditional industries will have limited upward space [15][16]. 2. Weakening Financial Support Leads to a Temporary Slowdown in Investment Growth - In 2025, the investment growth rate continued to slow down, becoming a major drag on domestic demand. By November, the real cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment decreased to 1.5%, and the nominal year - on - year growth rate dropped to - 1.7% [19]. - Infrastructure investment was weaker than expected, mainly affected by the amount and timing of funds. Manufacturing investment was generally stable, supported by monetary and fiscal policies. The negative impact of Sino - US trade conflicts on manufacturing investment confidence will gradually weaken. Real estate investment was the main drag, with a cumulative decline of nearly 15%. The real estate market sales were poor, and the industry's capital chain was weak. In the long - term, the real estate industry is difficult to return to the upward cycle [19][20][22]. 3. Subsidies Are the Main Support for Consumption, and Income Should Be Concerned in the Long - Term - In 2025, consumption growth first accelerated and then slowed down. The main influencing factor was the subsidy policy, with a total of 300 billion yuan invested, double that of 2024. The decline in consumption growth was mainly due to the reduction in subsidies. The long - term consumption trend depends on income growth, including passive and active income improvement and wage income improvement. Endogenous consumption repair may occur in the second half of 2026 [24]. 4. The Foreign Trade Environment Will Improve in 2026 - In 2025, China's exports exceeded expectations. Sino - US trade was affected by the trade war, with four stages of tariff adjustments. The overall export structure showed an upward trend in emerging industries and a downward trend in traditional labor - intensive industries. The trade surplus continued to reach new highs [28]. - In 2026, exports are expected to maintain growth, especially in the second half. Imports will gradually accelerate with the domestic inventory - building process. The contribution of foreign trade to the economy will increase [28]. Part 2: Deflation Will Turn into Weak Inflation, Increasing Support for Nominal Growth 1. The Driving Logic of CPI Changes, and Core CPI Rises Steadily - In 2025, CPI fluctuated around 0, and core CPI continued to rise, reaching about 1.2% in the fourth quarter. Food prices were mainly affected by seasonality, and pork prices had a negative impact on CPI. Oil prices also dragged down CPI. Core CPI reflected the structural changes in the domestic consumer market and the rise in international gold prices [45]. - In 2026, the pig cycle will have a small positive impact on food prices, and oil price drag will decrease. Core CPI will continue to improve with economic recovery, and its central value may rise to around 0.5% [45]. 2. The Low Point of PPI Has Passed, and Deflation Will Turn into Weak Inflation - In 2025, PPI first declined and then rebounded. The main factors were imported deflation and industrial supply - demand imbalance. High - tech manufacturing prices were stable, which was a key factor in stabilizing PPI. In the second half, the negative factors eased [48]. - In 2026, the global economy will improve cyclically, and PPI is likely to turn positive. The new price - increasing momentum will gradually strengthen, and PPI will change from a drag to a driver of the GDP deflator [48]. Part 3: Loose Fiscal Policy Remains the Pillar, and "Anti - Involution" Enhances Economic Resilience 1. Loose Monetary Policy, and the Risk - Free Yield May Remain Stable - In 2025, the central bank's monetary policy was loose, with interest rate and reserve requirement ratio cuts in May. Government financing was the main factor affecting macro - liquidity in the second and third quarters, and "anti - involution" supported the liquidity of upstream and mid - stream enterprises. The growth rate of broad social financing slowed down in the fourth quarter [54]. - In 2026, fiscal increment will still have the strongest impact on macro - liquidity. The central bank is expected to cut interest rates by 10BP and reserve requirement ratio by 25BP. The risk - free yield may remain volatile [54]. 2. Budgetary Revenue Stabilizes, and Broad Fiscal Policy Shows Structural Improvement - In 2025, fiscal revenue and expenditure growth rates recovered. Tax revenue was stable and increased, while land transfer revenue was low, dragging down the broad fiscal situation. Fiscal expenditure on infrastructure was affected by policies, and the fiscal deficit increased significantly [60]. - In 2026, fiscal policy will remain proactive. Broad fiscal policy will show structural improvement, mainly driven by the improvement of nominal growth and accelerated net financing. The degree of real estate recovery in the second half will be a decisive factor [61]. 3. "Anti - Involution" Is the Largest Policy Increment and Will Continue to Affect the Economy - The "anti - involution" policy was introduced in 2025 to address deflation, supply - demand imbalance, and local government incentive mechanism problems. It mainly focused on emerging industries with over - capacity and price wars [69][70]. - In 2026, the implementation of "anti - involution" policies will continue, improving corporate revenues, especially for upstream enterprises. The policy will focus on optimizing the supply - side structure, and future demand - side policies are important to watch [71]. Part 4: The Renminbi Will Maintain a Relatively Strong Position Against the US Dollar - In 2025, the RMB exchange rate was generally slightly bullish. Against the US dollar, it showed an appreciating trend with a three - stage pattern. The main reasons were the increase in foreign - related net receipts and bank customer net settlement of foreign exchange, as well as the central bank's policy to maintain exchange rate stability [76]. - In 2026, the RMB is likely to continue to appreciate against the US dollar, with the high point expected around 6.7. However, the appreciation space of the exchange rate index is limited due to factors such as stable foreign trade [76][77]. Part 5: The Commodity Market Will Continue to Rebound in an Oscillatory Manner - In 2025, most domestic commodity futures prices declined, with increased differentiation. In the first and second quarters, prices fell, and in the third quarter, they rebounded due to the "anti - involution" policy. In the fourth quarter, most prices oscillated or declined again. Different commodity sectors had different performances [84]. - In 2026, the commodity market will continue to rebound. In the first half, new energy and non - ferrous metals will be boosted, and in the second half, the market may turn into a systematic one. The rebound height of black products depends on the real estate situation, and precious metals will maintain an upward trend [87][91]. Part 6: Full - Text Summary and Outlook for 2026 - The economic situation in 2025 was weak, with consumption as the main support, net - export exceeding expectations, and investment being the weakest. The economic logic changed in the second half of the year, and the "anti - involution" policy had a significant impact [89][90]. - In 2026, the economy is expected to improve with the recovery of the inventory cycle, the easing of Sino - US trade tensions, and the improvement of external demand. The government may set the real GDP growth target at around 5.0%. Deflation will turn into weak inflation, and the commodity market will continue to rebound [90][91].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the shift in policy focus from "expansion" to "quality improvement and efficiency enhancement," highlighting the importance of development quality in the economic context of 2026 [3][12][13] - The report anticipates a reasonable recovery in prices, with expectations that the Producer Price Index (PPI) will gradually narrow its year-on-year decline and eventually turn positive in 2026, supported by a combination of macroeconomic policies [4][14] - Three key supports for corporate profit recovery in 2026 are identified: the emergence of new productive forces as a growth engine, the acceleration of anti-involution policies, and resilient overseas demand contributing to strong export performance [4][15][16] Group 2 - The report suggests that the A-share market will increasingly correlate with fundamental performance in 2026, with a focus on profit recovery driven by price increases and structural improvements [5][17] - Historical patterns indicate that the A-share market will initially favor growth stocks, followed by cyclical stocks, and eventually consumer stocks, with three main investment themes: technology growth sectors led by AI, industries benefiting from anti-involution policies, and high-demand export sectors [5][17]

RatingsDirect® 中国信用周期转向，政府着力解决内卷和债务问题 2025 年 11 月 11 日 中国的信用下行周期迎来尾声。但地方债务负担和激烈的国内竞争正在侵蚀银行的资本水平，威胁企 业的可持续生存，并使第三次经济泡沫的风险上升。该观点来自标普全球评级举办的"中国信用观 察"会议的与会嘉宾。 与会嘉宾包括标普全球评级分析师，以及来自安联、平安、联博和法国外贸银行的固收或经济研究首 席。会议于 2025 年 9 月 17 日举行，正值中国共产党的二十届四中全会召开前夕。四中全会通过了 中国的第十五个五年规划草案。与会嘉宾对"十五五"规划提出的关键问题进行了讨论，包括： 2025 年中国信用观察会议议题及嘉宾 | 主持人 | 特邀嘉宾 | 标普全球评级分析师 | | --- | --- | --- | | 议题：贸易紧张关系和高效增长——将如何影响中国企业？ | | | | 李国宜，董事总经理，地区业务负 | 曾铮，全球固定收益首席投资官， | 陈锦荣，董事总经理，行业首席， | | 责人，亚太区，标普全球评级 | 安联投资有限公司 | 亚太区主权评级，标普全球评级 | | 议题：美国加征关税，内 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of glass are weak, with production profit repair being sluggish and supply contraction falling short of expectations. Downstream deep - processing orders are weak due to the real estate drag, and inventory is at a historical high for the same period. The short - term outlook is expected to be mainly weak and volatile [2]. - The supply of glass has stabilized at a low level, downstream deep - processing factory orders are dismal, and glass factory inventories have rebounded. Therefore, it is expected that glass will mainly show a low - level weak and volatile trend [6]. 3. Content Summary by Directory Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased from 956 yuan/ton to 935 yuan/ton, a decline of - 2.20%. The spot price of Shahe Safety large - size glass decreased from 968 yuan/ton to 948 yuan/ton, a decline of - 2.07%. The main basis increased from 12 yuan/ton to 13 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.33% [7]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - size boards in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark, is 948 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. Fundamentals - Cost Side - No specific content on cost analysis is summarized. Information mainly mentions data sources for glass production profit [15][20]. Fundamentals - Supply - The number of operating national float glass production lines is 219, with an operating rate of 73.84%, and the number of operating production lines is at a historical low for the same period. The daily melting volume of national float glass is 155,000 tons, and the production capacity is at a historical low for the same period [23][25]. Fundamentals - Demand - In September 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.7082 million tons [28]. Fundamentals - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 58.227 million weight boxes, a decrease of 2.04% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [41]. Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides a float glass annual supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E, showing data such as production, consumption, production growth rate, consumption growth rate, and net import ratio for each year [42]. Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: "Coal - to - Gas" in the Shahe area and cold repairs in the industry have led to production losses [4]. - **Negative Factors**: The real - estate end - demand remains weak, and the number of orders for glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low for the same period. The capital collection of the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly focusing on digesting raw - glass inventories [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is Neutral, maintained [10] Core Insights - The Ministry of Foreign Trade announced the implementation of export license management for certain steel products starting January 1, 2026, aimed at curbing low-end exports represented by "buy-order exports" [2][6] - The management of export licenses is expected to disrupt the operations of shell trading companies, which have been exploiting tax evasion through fictitious contracts [6][7] - Short-term impacts may include a surge in exports before the new regulations take effect, but long-term benefits are anticipated as the industry adjusts to reduced low-end production and improved cost structures [7] Summary by Sections Export License Management - The announcement on December 12, 2025, includes a list of steel products that will require export licenses, which must be obtained based on export contracts and quality inspection certificates [2][6] - The goal is to strengthen export management and eliminate low-end exports that have been detrimental to the market [6] Market Conditions - Recent data shows a significant decline in iron output, with daily production dropping to 2.29 million tons, reflecting a decrease of 3.10 thousand tons per day [4] - Steel inventory has decreased by 2.56% week-on-week, but is up 14.27% year-on-year, indicating a mixed inventory situation [5] Price Trends - Steel prices have shown a downward trend, with Shanghai rebar prices falling to 3,250 CNY per ton, a decrease of 20 CNY per ton week-on-week [5] - The profit margins for rebar have turned negative, with immediate profits at -56 CNY per ton and lagging profits at -85 CNY per ton [5] Future Outlook - The implementation of export license management is expected to create a short-term export pulse, but may lead to a temporary supply-demand imbalance in early 2026 [7] - Long-term benefits include a reduction in raw material demand and the exit of outdated production capacities, which could improve the overall market conditions for quality steel producers [7][28]

Consumption - Overall commodity consumption is weak, with automotive sales declining and high-end liquor prices continuing to fall[1] - Seasonal recovery in textile and apparel demand is insufficient compared to the same period last year[1] - Service consumption shows stable population movement, with Shanghai's amusement consumption performing well in the off-season[1] Investment - Investment remains weak, with infrastructure construction slowing down and new home transactions marginally declining[1] - The area of new homes sold in 30 cities continues to decrease, with a slight narrowing of the year-on-year decline[14] - The proportion of second-hand home transactions has increased to 65.94%[14] Production - Production is expected to improve mainly due to year-end rush work, with coal inventory at ports continuing seasonal replenishment[1] - The operating rate of asphalt has slightly decreased to 27.8%, remaining at historical lows[14] - The operating rate of carbonates has increased, but remains at a relatively low level compared to the same period last year[23] Trade - The number of ships departing from ports has shown seasonal recovery, with domestic and international freight rates continuing to diverge due to demand differences[1] - Export value has increased, with a year-on-year growth rate of 17.3%[20] Prices - Industrial product prices have declined, with the PPI dropping by 0.97%[33] - CPI growth rate has decreased by 0.02 percentage points, with significant price increases in food and healthcare services[33] Liquidity - The US dollar index has fallen by 58 basis points to 98.4, influenced by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts[36] - The central bank's net currency injection was 4.7 billion yuan in the week of December 13[36]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a fluctuating and differentiated trend from December 8 to December 12, with the overall index rising by 0.26% [1][31] - The North Star 50 and ChiNext indices led the gains, increasing by 2.79% and 2.74% respectively, while the Shanghai Composite Index, Shanghai 50, and CSI 300 saw slight declines [1][31] - Small-cap stocks outperformed, with the CSI 1000 index rising by 0.39%, compared to a decline of 0.08% for the CSI 300 [1][31] - Among sectors, telecommunications, defense, and electronics were the top gainers, with increases of 6.27%, 2.80%, and 2.63% respectively, while coal, oil and petrochemicals, and steel faced significant declines [1][31][39] Fund Flow - The trading activity in the A-share market showed signs of recovery, with an average daily turnover of 19,530 billion yuan, up by 2,568.66 billion yuan from the previous week [2][32] - Northbound capital saw an average daily turnover of 2,324.71 billion yuan, an increase of 397.27 billion yuan compared to the previous week [2][32] - The total margin trading balance reached 25,079.69 billion yuan, up by 263.01 billion yuan from the previous week [2][32] - A total of 23 new funds were established this week, with a total issuance of 18.218 billion units, of which equity funds accounted for 13, with an issuance of 6.690 billion units, a decrease of 4.526 billion units from the previous week [2][32][47] Valuation Changes - As of December 12, the PE (TTM) ratio for the overall A-share index decreased by 0.24% to 21.73 times, placing it at the 85.10 percentile since 2010 [2][23] - The PB (LF) ratio fell by 0.1% to 1.79 times, situated at the 47.62 percentile since 2010 [2][23] - The bond yield spread for the A-shares was 2.7613%, near the three-year rolling average of 3.3405% and at the 52.16 percentile since 2010 [2][23][51] Investment Outlook - Recent significant events include the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, aligning with market expectations, although internal divisions have widened [3][33] - The Central Political Bureau and Central Economic Work Conference held this week provided direction for economic work in 2026, emphasizing "seeking progress while maintaining stability and improving quality and efficiency" [3][33] - The focus on domestic demand as a primary task reflects the urgent need to address "insufficient effective demand," highlighting the importance of technological innovation under the drive for innovation [3][33] - The capital market's role is expected to be further strengthened, with a clear commitment to "continuously deepen the comprehensive reform of capital market investment and financing" [3][33] Configuration Opportunities - Main Line 1: The unprecedented global changes are accelerating, with a shift in domestic economic logic towards new productive forces, highlighting key areas such as artificial intelligence, embodied intelligence, new energy, controllable nuclear fusion, quantum technology, and aerospace [4][34] - Main Line 2: The moderate advancement of anti-involution policies, combined with supply-demand structure optimization and price recovery expectations, indicates a clear path for profit recovery in manufacturing and resource sectors [4][34] - Auxiliary Line 1: The policy direction to expand domestic demand presents a window for investment in the consumer sector [4][34] - Auxiliary Line 2: The trend of going global is expected to further open up profit space for enterprises [4][34]

Core Viewpoint - The analysis of the 2025 futures market highlights the importance of macroeconomic narratives, industry contradictions, and capital dynamics in shaping market trends, reversals, and volatility [1][9]. Group 1: Trend Leaders - The "trend king" of 2025 is characterized by commodities that exhibit sustained single-direction trends due to the interplay of macroeconomic forces and deep-seated industry contradictions [3]. - Gold prices are expected to rise significantly in 2025, driven by factors such as increased demand for safe-haven assets due to geopolitical conflicts, changes in interest rate environments from the Federal Reserve, and ongoing central bank purchases reflecting a "de-dollarization" trend [3]. - Silver prices are showing stronger price elasticity alongside gold, supported by tight circulating inventories, growing demand from emerging industries like photovoltaics, and favorable conditions from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [3]. Group 2: Reversal Leaders - The "reversal king" of 2025 illustrates how policy expectations and market microstructures can dramatically alter price trends, with coking coal being a prime example of a "V"-shaped price reversal influenced by "anti-involution" policies [5]. - The price of polysilicon has reversed from bearish to bullish, primarily driven by "anti-involution" policies despite a backdrop of oversupply and high inventories [6]. - Industrial silicon and lithium carbonate are also affected by "anti-involution" policy expectations, with industrial silicon facing severe overcapacity and lithium carbonate requiring attention to supply elasticity and demand forecasts [6]. Group 3: Volatility Leaders - Crude oil is identified as the "volatility king" for 2025, with price fluctuations driven by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, U.S. energy and trade policies, and geopolitical conflicts, all contributing to a volatile market environment [7]. - The supply surplus in the oil market is unlikely to change fundamentally, and geopolitical tensions remain a primary driver of oil price volatility [7]. Group 4: Market Insights - The review of the top ten classic market trends in 2025 reveals that trend markets are driven by long-term narratives and solid industry contradictions, while reversal markets are catalyzed by strong policy expectations and unique market structures [9]. - Understanding and distinguishing these different types of market behaviors and their core drivers is essential for identifying opportunities and managing risks in a complex and changing market landscape [9].