Core Viewpoint - The bond market is under pressure as more than half of bond funds reported negative returns in July, with pure bond funds averaging a return of -0.13% and less than 35% of products showing positive returns [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - As of July 31, over 40% of the more than 6,600 bond funds have seen a decline in net value this year, with more than 50 funds experiencing a drop of over 1% in July [2] - The 30-year government bond ETF recorded a decline of over 1.6% within the month, while some bond funds heavily invested in long-term interest rate bonds saw net value declines approaching 2% [2] - Only 140 products among medium to long-term pure bond funds have returned over 2% this year, while over 400 products have reported negative returns [2] Group 2: Redemption Pressure - A significant redemption wave occurred on July 24, marking the largest single-day redemption since the "9·24" market event last year, with nearly 100 billion yuan in bonds sold in one day and over 120 billion yuan sold in three days [2] - By July 31, over 40 bond funds had announced adjustments to their net value precision due to large redemptions, a notable increase from 14 in May and 19 in June [2][3] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The current adjustment in the bond market is closely related to the "see-saw effect" between stocks and bonds, with increased risk appetite leading to a shift of funds from the bond market to the equity market [5] - Analysts noted that the scale of bond funds has seen a significant drop in growth compared to stock funds, with bond fund net values experiencing substantial declines [5] - The last trading day of July saw major selling in interest rate bonds primarily from funds, while buying was mainly from banking institutions, indicating a cautious stance from brokerages and insurance funds [5] Group 4: Future Outlook - Short-term expectations suggest that the sentiment impact of "anti-involution" policies may ease with a decline in commodity prices, while the bond market is generally viewed as a natural bull market due to its coupon characteristics [7] - Long-term trends indicate that the bond market in China typically exhibits a "bull long, bear short" pattern, with past adjustments showing a capacity for rapid recovery [7] - Current market conditions reflect an "involution" scenario, with funds maintaining high durations historically, and a focus on discovering credit spreads as liquidity remains loose [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of maintaining a long-term perspective when investing in pure bond funds, even during periods of market volatility, and suggests strategies for managing investments in both bond and equity markets [2][5][17]. Group 1: Market Volatility and Bond Funds - The article discusses the recent decline in pure bond funds, which are typically considered low-risk investments, highlighting that both stock and bond markets are subject to volatility [2][4]. - It presents data showing that the China Bond Index has had a cumulative increase of 27.27% over the past five years, with an annualized volatility of only 1.48% and a maximum drawdown of 2.01%, indicating the low volatility characteristic of bond assets [5]. - The article encourages investors to adopt a long-term mindset and not to panic sell their bond funds during short-term fluctuations [5][17]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Investor Behavior - The article notes that the A-share market has been performing well, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3600 points, while the bond market has been under pressure due to rising yields and investor sentiment shifting towards equities [8]. - It highlights the "see-saw" effect between stock and bond markets, where funds tend to flow towards the more profitable asset class, leading to redemption pressures on bond funds [8][9]. - Investors are advised to carefully consider their risk tolerance and the appropriateness of their asset allocation before making decisions to switch from bond funds to equity investments [9]. Group 3: Strategies for Investment Allocation - The article introduces the "Fixed Income +" strategy, which allows investors to combine both equity and bond assets, thus avoiding the dilemma of choosing between the two [11][12]. - It compares the performance of Fixed Income + funds with pure bond funds, indicating that Fixed Income + funds have shown better performance in a rising equity market while maintaining lower volatility compared to pure equity funds [13]. - The article suggests that investors can benefit from dynamic adjustments in their portfolios through Fixed Income + funds, which can help capture opportunities in both markets without the stress of frequent reallocation [14][15].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the banking wealth management industry Core Insights - The banking wealth management market has shown significant growth, with the total scale reaching 30.67 trillion yuan by the end of June 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.53% [3][10] - The proportion of closed-end products with a duration of over one year has increased to 72.86%, indicating a trend towards longer-duration products [3][10] - Fixed-income products dominate the market, accounting for 97.20% of the total wealth management product scale, while cash management products are experiencing a contraction [3][11] - The proportion of wealth management products investing in public funds has risen to 4.2%, reflecting a shift in investment strategy [3][12] - The weight of credit bonds in wealth management products has decreased, with holdings at 312.79 billion yuan, representing 38.79% of total investment assets, down 2.34 percentage points year-on-year [3][12] Summary by Sections Regulatory and Industry Dynamics - The banking wealth management market has seen a notable increase in product scale, driven by factors such as the reduction in deposit rates and continuous innovation by wealth management companies [3][10] - The trend towards longer-duration products is aimed at enhancing yield and improving asset-liability matching [3][10] Yield Performance - For the week of July 21-27, 2025, cash management products recorded an annualized yield of 1.35%, down 2 basis points from the previous week [3][14] - The yield of fixed-income products has generally declined, influenced by market conditions and inflation expectations [3][15] Break-even Rate Tracking - The break-even rate for banking wealth management products rose to 2.02%, an increase of 1.23 percentage points week-on-week, indicating potential pressure on the products [3][23][25] - The expansion of credit spreads is correlated with the break-even rate, suggesting a need for close monitoring of credit market trends [3][23][24]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 7 月 31 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏弱 | 震荡 | 股市风险偏好上升，股债跷跷板 效应显现 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均震荡上涨。7 月以来，股市风险偏好上升，资金偏好由债转股，股债跷跷 板效应显现，加上外部风险因素趋于缓和，国债短线承压。随着国债期货 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of consistency in investment strategies, particularly regarding entry and exit points, and highlights the need for a clear approach to short-term versus long-term investments [1]. Group 1: Market Overview - The central bank conducted a 3.09 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation, with 1.505 billion yuan maturing today, resulting in a net injection of 1.585 billion yuan [2]. - The funding environment is described as balanced and slightly loose, with funding rates continuing to decline, specifically DR001 around 1.32% and DR007 around 1.52% [2]. - The interbank funding rates show a weighted average of R001 at 1.36%, up by 3 basis points, and R007 at 1.61%, with a transaction volume of 120.82 billion yuan, an increase of 654.37 million yuan [3]. Group 2: Economic Events - The US-China talks concluded without significant breakthroughs, with both parties agreeing to extend the tariff truce period [4]. - The political bureau meeting did not exceed expectations, and the stock market experienced fluctuations, with bond yields showing a downward trend [4]. - The meeting's language changed from previous discussions, omitting references to "low-price" competition, indicating a shift in focus towards managing high-price competition due to rising commodity prices [4]. Group 3: Taxation Insights - Individual income tax revenue increased by 8% year-on-year in the first half of the year, raising questions about potential undisclosed salary increases or adjustments in tax collection [4].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 国债期货 | 日报 2025 年 7 月 30 日 国债期货 专业研究·创造价值 重磅会议召开，国债期货震荡上涨 核心观点 今日国债期货均震荡上涨。7 月以来，股市风险偏好上升，资金偏好 由债转股，股债跷跷板效应显现，加上外部风险因素趋于缓和，国债短线承 压。随着国债期货持续回调，国债收益率持续上升，触发政策利率的锚定效 应，国债期货继续下行的动能有所不足。今日召开的政治局会议再提落实落 细适度宽松的货币政策，这意味着未来货币环境仍偏宽松，国债期货中长期 向上的逻辑仍较为牢靠。短期内，宏观经济表现韧性，外部风险因素趋缓， 降息的必要性有所不足，国债上行的动能也有限。总的来说，短期内国债期 货震荡整理为主，上行与下行的空间均有限。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明：本人具有中国期货 业协会授予的期货从业资格证 书，期货投资咨询资格证书， 本人承诺以勤勉的职业态度， 独立、 ...

Group 1 - The overall average return of pure bond funds since July is -0.05%, with only 40% of products achieving positive returns [1][3] - There has been a significant redemption phenomenon in bond funds, with nearly 40 bond funds announcing large redemptions since July, compared to 19 and 14 in June and May respectively [3] - Industry analysts suggest that factors such as "anti-involution" improving deflation expectations, easing of China-US tariff tensions, and the stock-bond seesaw effect are likely to continue to suppress the bond market in the short term [3] Group 2 - The high congestion in the bond market may lead to continued preventive redemptions from bank wealth management products, potentially disrupting the market [3] - The bond market is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the short term, but there are opportunities for phase recovery [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2509 is to oscillate, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the intraday view is to oscillate weakly, with an overall view of oscillation due to the rising risk appetite in the stock market and the stock - bond seesaw effect [1]. - For the main varieties of TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is to oscillate weakly, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the reference view is to oscillate. In the short term, treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate and consolidate [5]. Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the variety TL2509, the short - term is within a week, the medium - term is from two weeks to one month. The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are oscillate, oscillate, and oscillate weakly respectively, with an overall view of oscillation. The core logic is the rising risk appetite in the stock market and the stock - bond seesaw effect [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is to oscillate weakly, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the reference view is to oscillate. The core logic is that treasury bond futures oscillated and declined yesterday. Due to the mitigation of domestic and foreign risk factors, the risk appetite in the stock market rose rapidly, and the stock - bond seesaw effect emerged, causing treasury bond futures to face short - term pressure. However, the continuous rise of market interest rates will trigger the anchoring effect of policy interest rates, limiting the upward space of market interest rates and the downward space of treasury bond futures. From a macro - policy perspective, the problem of insufficient effective domestic demand still exists, future monetary policy will remain relatively loose, and there is still an expectation of a policy interest rate cut, providing strong support for treasury bond futures [5].

③北京时间7月31日凌晨，备受瞩目的美联储7月利率决议将公布。当前市场普遍押注，美联储将继续维 持现有利率水平不变，但会议声明和美联储主席鲍威尔在会后记者会上是否会释放"鸽派"信号从而为9 月可能的降息奠定基础，更加受到重视。 中证网讯 ①7月29日，创新药主题ETF表现亮眼。今年以来，有6只ETF涨幅超100%，均为创新药主题 ETF。 ②股债"跷跷板"效应再现。一方面，权益市场近期回暖明显，市场风险偏好不断提升。另一方面，资金 正在从震荡的债市中抽离。公开数据显示，7月以来，超40只债基因大额赎回而调整基金份额净值精 度。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond fund industry is experiencing a significant redemption wave, with large-scale outflows triggered by market conditions, particularly following a notable decline in the bond market on July 24, leading to the largest single-day redemption since last year's "9.24" event [1][2]. Group 1: Redemption Trends - On July 24, the bond market saw a substantial pullback, resulting in a record single-day redemption for public bond funds, with net bond sales exceeding 120 billion yuan over three consecutive trading days [1][2]. - Since July 21, the net subscription index for public bond funds has remained negative, reaching -29.2 on July 24, indicating significant outflows [2]. - In July, over 40 bond funds had to adjust their net asset value precision due to large redemptions, a notable increase compared to previous months [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The "stock-bond seesaw" effect is evident, with funds flowing from bond markets to equity markets as stock and commodity markets perform well [1][4]. - The low yield environment for bond funds has diminished their attractiveness, leading to increased risk appetite among investors, which further exacerbates outflows from bond funds [4][5]. Group 3: Fund Manager Responses - Fund managers are proactively managing redemption pressures by reducing bond holdings' leverage and duration to mitigate net asset value fluctuations [6]. - Communication with institutional investors is prioritized to encourage staggered redemptions, thereby minimizing impact [6]. - Many bond funds have resorted to dividend distributions to retain investors, with 924 pure bond funds announcing dividends since June, compared to 848 in the same period last year [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Compared to previous redemption waves, the current situation is characterized by a shorter duration and manageable impact, with net bond sales and related product pullbacks remaining within controllable limits [7]. - Some institutions are taking advantage of the market pullback to buy into bond funds, suggesting a balanced flow of capital [8].