证券研究报告 | 固定收益定期 gszqdatemark 2025 05 19 年 月 日 固定收益定期 煤炭调度回落，化工开工率回升——基本面高频数据跟踪 本期国盛基本面高频指数为 125.7 点（前值为 125.5 点），当周（5 月 12 日-5 月 16 日，以下简称当周）同比增加 4.8 点（前值为增加 4.7 点），同比增幅回升。利率债多空信号为空头，信号因子为 6.4%（前值 为 6.3%）。 工业生产高频指数为 125.3，前值为 125.2，当周同比增加 4.7 点（前值 为增加 4.6 点），同比增幅增加。 商品房销售高频指数为 45.0，前值为 45.1，当周同比下降 6.7 点（前值 为下降 6.8 点），同比降幅收窄。 基建投资高频指数为 117.4，前值为 117.2，当周同比增加 0.5 点（前值 为增加 0.0 点），同比增幅扩大。 出口高频指数为 144.6，前值为 144.7，当周同比增加 7.2 点（前值为增 加 7.6 点），同比增幅收窄。 消费高频指数为 119.4，前值为 119.4，当周同比增加 1.3 点（前值为增 加 1.2 点），同比增幅增加。 物价方面，C ...

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Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sentiment in the bond market has shifted from "bullish but not buying" to a stage where some bulls are "wavering." The short - term trading themes are broad - based monetary policy and the fundamentals. The 10 - year Treasury bond is oscillating around 1.65% - 1.70%, and the bond market is likely to be range - bound in the short term. The impact of positive events on the bond market is rapid this year. The proportion of capital gain demand in the comprehensive return has been continuously increasing, so the duration should be maintained, and leverage can be appropriately increased if the funding rate declines [2]. - From the perspective of market sentiment, the bond market has changed from "bullish but not buying" to a stage where some bulls are "wavering." This week, some bulls have turned neutral, the number of institutions with bearish views has increased by one, and the sentiment index has declined [3]. - The fundamentals and broad - based monetary policy are the "battlefields" for the bulls and bears among the sellers. As of May 19, the number of fixed - income sellers with bullish views has decreased to 10, the number of those with bearish views has increased to 3, and the number of those with neutral views has risen to 17 [3]. - Among the buyers, those with neutral views also account for more than half, and the proportion of institutions with bullish views has decreased. The overall view of fixed - income buyers is neutral - bullish. Currently, there are 10 bullish, 16 neutral, and 3 bearish institutions [3]. - In the Treasury bond futures market, the positive arbitrage space for the TS contract has decreased, and it may still be in a premium state. One can consider participating in the game of the TS contract rising [6]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Seller and Buyer Markets 1.1 Seller Market Sentiment Index and Interest - rate Bonds - The seller sentiment index has decreased compared to last week. The weighted index this week is 0.18 (neutral - bullish, down 0.10 from last week), and the unweighted index is 0.28 (down 0.14 from last week). Currently, institutions generally hold a neutral - bullish view, with 10 bullish, 17 neutral, and 3 bearish. 33% of institutions are bullish, with keywords such as the long - term trend of Sino - US decoupling despite tariff fluctuations, a possible LPR cut this week, and the expected continuation of monetary easing; 57% are neutral, with keywords such as high macro - environment uncertainty, waiting for a new market trigger after the double - cut and tariff easing, and the bond market may have a narrow - range oscillation; 10% are bearish, with keywords such as the exhaustion of the double - cut benefits, the lack of support for the bond market reflected by the non - rising funding rate, and the central bank may take measures to maintain the bank's net interest margin and push up the long - term bond yield after the tariff cut [13]. 1.2 Buyer Market Sentiment Index and Interest - rate Bonds - The buyer sentiment index has decreased compared to last week. This week's sentiment index is 0.18 (neutral - bullish, down 0.22 from last week). Currently, institutions generally hold a neutral - bullish view, with 10 bullish, 16 neutral, and 3 bearish. 35% of institutions are bullish, with keywords such as continuous loosening of the funding side, the economy still needing policy support, and the reduction of funding costs; 55% are neutral, with keywords such as fluctuations in Sino - US economic and trade expectations, frequent policy disturbances, unclear fundamental expectations, differentiated interest - rate trends, limited adjustment space but repeated directions; 10% are bearish, with keywords such as the marginal weakening of easing expectations, the enhanced expectation of economic fundamental repair, frequent funding disturbances, and increased long - end supply pressure [14]. 1.3 Credit Bonds - Market hot topics include policies to promote science - and - technology innovation bonds and implicit debt accountability. Multiple departments have introduced policies to promote the construction of science - and - technology innovation bonds, and it is expected that future issuance increments will be for financial institutions and private enterprises, covering more science - and - technology innovation fields. The Ministry of Finance has emphasized local government implicit debt governance again, and the issuance supervision of urban investment bonds has become stricter, with risks being relatively controllable in the short term [18]. 1.4 Convertible Bonds - This week, institutions generally hold a neutral - bullish view, with 2 bullish and 6 neutral. 25% of institutions are bullish, with keywords such as the positive impact of the double - cut and the end of the earnings disclosure period, the increased risk appetite in the convertible bond market, and the strong equity market becoming an important support for convertible bonds; 75% are neutral, with keywords such as the current high valuation of convertible bonds, low cost - effectiveness, a possible range - bound oscillation pattern, and the need for incremental funds or overall underlying stock repair for a stronger market [20]. 2. Treasury Bond Futures Tracking 2.1 Futures Trading - In terms of futures prices, except for the increase in the TS contract price, the prices of other futures contracts have decreased. As of May 16, the prices of the Treasury TS/TF/T/TL contracts are 102.38 yuan, 105.72 yuan, 108.48 yuan, and 118.91 yuan respectively, with changes of +0.04 yuan, - 0.38 yuan, - 0.58 yuan, and - 1.46 yuan compared to last Friday. - In terms of Treasury bond futures open interest, except for the increase in the TS contract open interest, the open interest of other futures contracts has decreased. As of May 16, the open interest of the TS/TF/T/TL futures contracts is 84,000 lots, 79,000 lots, 100,000 lots, and 50,000 lots respectively, with changes of +702 lots, - 64,061 lots, - 76,980 lots, and - 31,940 lots compared to last Friday. - The trading volume of Treasury bond futures has increased across the board. As of May 16, from a 5 - day moving average perspective, the trading volumes of the TS/TF/T/TL futures contracts are 132.9 billion yuan, 98.5 billion yuan, 131.1 billion yuan, and 155.6 billion yuan respectively, with increases of 40.2 billion yuan, 25.9 billion yuan, 44.7 billion yuan, and 39.9 billion yuan compared to last Friday. - The trading volume - to - open - interest ratio of Treasury bond futures has increased across the board. As of May 16, from a 5 - day moving average perspective, the trading volume - to - open - interest ratios of the TS/TF/T/TL futures contracts are 1.01, 0.98, 1.03, and 2.58 respectively, with increases of 0.49, 0.49, 0.56, and 1.33 compared to last Friday [24][25]. 2.2 Spot Bond Trading - The turnover rate of 30 - year Treasury bonds has decreased. On May 16, the turnover rate was 2.32%, down 0.10 percentage points from last week and 0.41 percentage points from Monday, with a weekly average turnover rate of 3.33%. The turnover rate of interest - rate bonds has decreased. On May 16, the turnover rate was 0.89%, down 0.05 percentage points from last week and 0.22 percentage points from Monday. The turnover rate of 10 - year China Development Bank bonds has increased. On May 16, the turnover rate was 5.81%, up 0.17 percentage points from last week but down 1.54 percentage points from Monday [35][36]. 2.3 Basis Trading - In terms of basis trends in the past week, the basis of the TF main contract has narrowed, while the basis of other main contracts has widened. As of May 16, the basis (CTD) of the TS/TF/T/TL main contracts is - 0.07 yuan, +0.05 yuan, +0.11 yuan, and +0.17 yuan respectively, with changes of - 0.03 yuan, +0.10 yuan, +0.17 yuan, and +0.05 yuan compared to last Friday. - In terms of net basis, the net basis of the TS main contract has widened, while the net basis of other main contracts has narrowed. As of May 16, the net basis (CTD) of the TS/TF/T/TL main contracts is - 0.05 yuan, +0.03 yuan, +0.02 yuan, and +0.03 yuan respectively, with changes of - 0.06 yuan, +0.12 yuan, +0.08 yuan, and +0.09 yuan compared to last Friday. - In terms of IRR, the IRR of the TS contract has increased, while the IRR of other main contracts has decreased. As of May 16, the IRR (CTD) of the TS/TF/T/TL main contracts is 1.79%, 1.32%, 1.46%, and 1.39% respectively, with changes of +0.35%, - 1.02%, - 0.66%, and - 0.56% compared to last Friday. The TS main contract's basis is negative this week, and the weekly average IRR is 1.65%, at a relatively high level. Since the funding side is generally in a stage of loosening this week, with the weekly average DR007 at 1.54%, one can pay attention to the positive arbitrage strategy of the TS contract [41][44][45]. 2.4 Inter - delivery Spread and Inter - product Spread - In terms of inter - delivery spread, the spread of the T contract has widened, while the spreads of other main futures contracts have narrowed. As of May 16, the near - month minus far - month spreads of the TS/TF/T/TL contracts are - 0.11 yuan, - 0.20 yuan, - 0.17 yuan, and - 0.34 yuan respectively, with changes of +0.09 yuan, +0.14 yuan, - 0.00 yuan, and +0.19 yuan compared to last Friday. - In terms of inter - product spread, the spreads of the 2*TS - TF and 4*TS - T contracts have widened, while the spreads of other main futures contracts have narrowed. As of May 16, the values of 2*TS - TF, 2*TF - T, 4*TS - T, and 3*T - TL are 99.04 yuan, 102.93 yuan, 301.01 yuan, and 206.50 yuan respectively, with changes of +0.43 yuan, - 0.25 yuan, +0.62 yuan, and - 0.29 yuan compared to last Friday. Currently, the downward space for long - term interest rates is limited. If the central bank takes measures to ease liquidity, there may be downward opportunities for the medium - and short - term. There is considerable room for gaming in short - term Treasury bond futures, and it is recommended to continue to pay attention to the strategy of going long on the short - end and short on the long - end to steepen the yield curve [51][52].

| | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | | | ITC 国贸期货 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | SUL | | | | | | | | 农产品研究中心 | 国贸期货研究院 | 杨璐琳 | 投资咨询号:Z0015194 从业资格号:F3042528 | | | 2025/5/19 | | | | | | | | 纸浆价格数据 | | | | | | | | 2025年5月16日 | HMM | 周环比 | | | 2025年5月16日 | HMA | 周环比 | | | SP2601 | 5282 | -0. 64% | 2. 40% | | 针叶浆银星 | 6300 | 0. 00% | 1.61% | | 期货价格 | SP2507 | 5356 | -0. 56% | 3.72% | 现货价 | 针织我针 | 5450 | 0. 00% | 4. 81% | | | SP2509 | 5280 | -0. 71% | 3.57% | | 阔叶浆金鱼 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the contrasting perspectives between technical bearishness and fundamental recovery in the palm oil market, questioning whether the recent price increase is a "false breakout" or a "true reversal" [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Technical indicators suggest a bearish outlook for palm oil prices, indicating potential downward pressure in the near term [1] - Conversely, fundamental factors are showing signs of recovery, which could support higher prices moving forward [1] Group 2: Price Movement - Palm oil has recently experienced a price increase, raising questions about the sustainability of this trend [1] - The article highlights the importance of distinguishing between temporary price movements and long-term market trends [1]

有色金属日报 2025-5-19 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 铜 有色金属小组 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 上周铜价冲高回落，伦铜微涨 0.01%至 9440 美元/吨，沪铜主力合约收至 77670 元/吨。产业层面， 上周三大交易所库存环比增加 2.4 万吨，其中上期所库存增加 2.7 至 10.8 万吨，LME 库存减少 1.2 至 17.9 万吨，COMEX 库存增加 1.0 至 15.4 万吨。上海保税区库存 ...

宏观 证券研究报告 中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明超预期 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 05 月 19 日 [Table_Author] 分析师：陈江月 执业证书：S1030520060001 电话：0755-83199599-9055 邮箱：chenjy@csco.com.cn 公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 [Table_ReportType] 宏观周报（5 月第 3 周） [Table_S 核心观点： ummary] 请务必阅读文后重要声明及免责条款 5) 风险提示：基本面超预期弱化、中美谈判进度不及预期。 [Table_Industry] [Table_Title] [Table_Report] [Table_BaseData] 经济预测（一致预期） 单位（%） 2409E 24E GDP（Q3E） CPI PPI 工业增加值增速 固定投资增速 社消增速 出口增速 进口增速 M2 增速 社融增速 数据来源：万得资讯 1) 权益：上周市场缩量上涨。关税动态方面，中美日内瓦经贸 会谈联合声明超预期，但由于 24%部分暂停的关税后续贸易谈 判难度较大，谈判窗口期后仍然有重新启动的风险，针对芬 ...

锌产业周报 2025/05/19 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观 点、结论和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在 不发出通知的情形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不 能依靠本报告以取代行使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许 可，任何机构或个人不得以翻版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东 亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相关责 ...

2025开年以来，丸美生物上涨60.82%，排在涨幅榜首位；上海家化上涨46.72%，居次席；华大基因上 涨34.45%；安集科技、信立泰、韦尔股份涨逾20%；科沃斯和广联达分别上涨19.60%和18.79%；珀莱 雅、恒瑞医药涨逾17%；海大集团、兆易创新、澜起科技涨逾14%；天士力、山西汾酒、药明康德分别 上涨13.20%、12.85%和11.48%。 关注国内政策发力力度 展望后市，星石投资表示，短期来看，当前在存量资金博弈背景下，宽基指数或在当前位置保持震荡。 市场结构方面，板块间或继续保持轮动，需要等待新的主线出现。 □本报记者 王宇露 上周市场反弹，中证新华社民族品牌工程指数上涨0.94%，报1666.03点。华大基因、以岭药业、石头科 技等成分股上周表现强势。2025开年以来，丸美生物、上海家化、华大基因等成分股涨幅居前。展望后 市，机构认为，接下来市场或许会重新聚焦国内经济基本面变化，预计政策面会积极应对，市场具有中 期支撑。 多只成分股表现强势 上周市场继续反弹，上证指数上涨0.76%，深证成指上涨0.52%，创业板指上涨1.38%，沪深300指数上 涨1.12%，品牌工程指数上涨0.94% ...

证券研究报告 | 行业点评报告 2025 年 05 月 18 日 2025 年一季度银行监管数据点评 经营仍承压，估值有希望 总量研究/银行 5 月 15 日，国家金融监督管理总局公布了 25 年一季度银行业主要监管指标。 我们解读如下（详细数据图表见正文）： 第一，整体情况方面，一季度商业银行基本面仍在承压期，但因为前期上市银 行一季报情况已披露，行业监管数据呈现情况与上市银行指标大致类似，所以 市场已有预期。 第二，利润增速方面，板块有所分化，国股行利润增速回落，城农商行波动较 大，或来自口径调整形成的扰动。25Q1 商业银行净利润同比下降 2.32%，其中 国股行单季净利润同比增速分别为+0.08%、-4.53%，相较24Q4分别下降了2.07 和 11.8 个百分点，预计主要是受一季度债市调整导致非息收入下降影响，对债 券类资产投资更多的股份行受影响幅度更大。城农商行单季净利润同比增速分 别为-6.68%、-2.03%，相较 24Q4 大幅上升 80pcts 左右，可能是由于去年四季 度中小银行兼并重组导致区域性银行统计口径发生变化所致。 第三，规模增速方面，信贷增速继续下降，非信贷资产增速上升。25 ...