风险提示：数据统计口径存在偏差；数据测算误差；从第三方机构 获知数据的偏差风险。 报告来源 以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已发布的证券研究报告。 报告导读： 本期市场交易热度大幅抬升，融资资金大幅流入， ETF 与外资资金转为流 出，偏股基金新发规模边际下降。南下资金流入持续抬升。 市场定价状态：市场整体交易热度 快速抬升，赚钱效应明显。 1 ）市场情绪（上升）：本期国泰海通资 金流入强度指数整体持续上升， 市场交易热度底部抬升， 全 A 日均成交额从 1.2 万亿上升至 1.5 万 亿，上证指数换手率分位数上升至 85% ，科创板换手率分位数上升至 40% 。 日均涨停家数上升至 71 家 ，最大连板数为 6 个，封板率上升至 77.2% ，龙虎榜上榜家数降至 61 家。 2 ）赚钱效应（上 升）：本期个股上涨比例上升至 88.6% ，全 A 个股周度收益中位数上升至 4.4% ； 3 ）交易集中度 （上升）：国泰海通行业轮动指数小幅提升，行业交易集中度回升，本期行业换手率历史分位数处于 90% 以上的行业有 7 个，环比增加 5 个，其中换手率分位数超 95% 的行业为综合金融、国防军工、综 合和石油石化。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - Last week, the overall liquidity was balanced, with an upward trend in capital interest rates, a downward trend in certificate of deposit (CD) rates, an upward trend in IRS yields, a downward trend in repurchase trading volume, an upward trend in bill rates, and a downward trend in the US dollar to RMB exchange rate. After the end of the quarter, it is expected that the liquidity will ease and the capital interest rates will decline [1][2][3][4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Capital Supply and Demand - Last week, the open - market had 960.3 billion yuan in maturities (all reverse repurchase), and 2327.5 billion yuan in investments (2027.5 billion yuan in reverse repurchase and 300 billion yuan in MLF), with a net investment of 1367.2 billion yuan. The balance of outstanding reverse repurchases increased compared to the previous week [1] - This week, the open - market has 2027.5 billion yuan in capital maturities, all reverse repurchase. After the end of the quarter, it is expected that the liquidity will ease and the capital interest rates will decline [5] Interest Rates - Affected by the end - of - quarter factor, the average DR007 was 1.65%, up 13BP from the previous week; the average R007 was 1.82%, up 24BP from the previous week; the average DR001 and R001 were 1.37% and 1.44% respectively. The average GC007 was 1.92%, up 31BP from the previous week [1] - Last week, the 1 - year FR007 interest rate swap average was 1.54%, up from the previous week. The market's expectation for the liquidity is stable [2] - As of the last trading day of last week, the yield to maturity of 1 - year AAA CDs was 1.64%, down from the previous week. This week, the single - week maturity of CDs is about 245.79 billion yuan, with less maturity pressure than the previous week [2] - Last Friday, the 6M national stock bill transfer quotation was 1.15%, up from the previous week's last trading day [4] Repurchase Market - Last week, the volume of pledged repurchase trading was between 6.6 and 8.5 trillion yuan, and the average volume of R001 repurchase trading was 6.5011 trillion yuan, down 961.1 billion yuan from the previous week. As of the last trading day of last week, the balance of outstanding repurchases was 12.7 trillion yuan, up from the previous week [3] - In terms of institutions, the lending scale of large - scale banks decreased, while that of money market funds increased. The borrowing scales of securities firms and wealth management increased, while that of funds decreased [3] Exchange Rate - Last Friday, the US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.17, slightly down from the previous week, and the Sino - US interest rate spread narrowed [4] This Week's Key Points of Attention - This week, the open - market has 2027.5 billion yuan in capital maturities, all reverse repurchase [5] - On Monday and Tuesday, China's official and Caixin PMI for June will be announced respectively, and on Tuesday, the US ISM manufacturing index for June will be announced. On Thursday, the US unemployment rate and non - farm payrolls change for June will be announced, and the minutes of the Eurozone's monetary policy meeting for June will also be announced [5] - This week, the net maturity of interest - bearing bonds is 6.34 billion yuan [5]

Core Viewpoint - The future outlook of the philatelic and numismatic market is clouded by the ongoing trade war, leading to increased caution among investors and a tendency to adopt a "wait-and-see" approach. Group 1: Impact of Trade War - The trade war has created significant tension in capital flow, resulting in a subdued performance of the philatelic market amidst stock market volatility and international economic uncertainty [1][4]. - The absence of a gift-giving cycle means the market must rely solely on long-term demand for collection and investment [3]. - The scarcity of funds has left the market lifeless, with a clear divide emerging between high-quality collectibles and those facing greater downward pressure [4]. Group 2: Market Pricing Dynamics - In the philatelic market, prices are influenced by three main factors: usage price, investment price, and collectible price [5]. - Usage prices remain relatively stable due to their face value, while investment prices are significantly affected by the economic environment and consumer confidence [6][7]. - The ongoing trade war has led to a decrease in household income, which in turn suppresses investment demand and diminishes the investment value of certain collectibles [8]. Group 3: Investor Strategies - Despite the uncertainties in the current market, opportunities still exist, emphasizing the need for investors to differentiate between collecting and investing [11][12]. - Collectors should focus on selecting varieties with long-term appreciation potential, while investors may prioritize short-term gains and closely monitor market trends [13][14]. - The strategies for collectors and investors differ significantly, with collecting being a long-term endeavor and investing being more about seizing trends [15]. Group 4: Conclusion - The trade war's impact on the philatelic market is profound, leading to evolving investor sentiments. Maintaining a calm and rational approach is essential for navigating this uncertain environment [16].

今年上半年，南向资金累计净流入港股市场近7300亿港元。随着南向资金持续流入，港股流动性显著改 善，港股与A股的流动性差距迎来趋势性收窄，而作为南向资金核心增配方向之一的港股银行板块，成为 AH溢价率大幅下降的最大推手。 包括中欧瑞博、兴证策略等多家机构表示，港股潜在回报率更高，好公司的港股折价将会很快填平，以银行股 为代表的高股息资产中仍有优秀且便宜的公司，从目前10年期国债利率在2%以内来看，这些高股息资产仍有 相当吸引力。 港股流动性直追A股 "我们此前部分产品投港股的上限是30%，但现在上限已经全部打开，可以全部买港股。"康曼德资本创始人丁 楹在近日论坛上表示，未来产品很多收益可能将来自港股。 Wind数据显示，南下资金年内已累计净买入近7300亿港元，为历史同期最高。相较2024年全年也仅相差约800 亿港元。南向资金持续流入对港股市场流动性和估值体系产生深远影响。 在流动性层面上，港股成交金额大幅攀升，换手率与A股流动性正在追平。截至6月27日，本月南向资金合计 买卖成交总额达到2.28万亿港元，已高于5月全月成交额1.80万亿港元。 兴证策略研究报告指出，今年以来，港股与A股流动性差距显著收窄， ...

如有疑问请以音频内容为准，添加妙妙子微信huxiuvip302，入群有机会与董小姐进一步交流。 本篇评级为★★★，主要围绕以下内容展开： 1、资金压力缓解，科技赛道会再接再厉吗? 2、从人民日报的评论，看下半年的机会 今天是6月份的最后一个交易日。往往在半年末的时候，我们要密切关注市场上资金的流动性是不是突 然变得紧张。今天紧张的情绪有所缓解。这实际上是有利于市场上科技赛道向上发挥的。 我们来看一下，一天期的国债逆回购利率今天下降了30%，回到了一个相对比较安全的区间。三大指数 也随之翻红。其中的领头羊除了军工板块之外，剩下的基本上是来自科技赛道。我们之前在6月下旬也 曾经跟大家聊到过，要重点关注科技赛道当中的表现。到现在为止，包括人工智能、芯片等等，科技赛 道的整体涨幅大概是在6%左右。但即使有了比较明显的战绩，如果我们拿今年2月份的高峰跟现在对比 的话，其实它中间还存在着一个10%到15%的缺口。科技整体或许只是小荷才露尖角而已。 尤其考虑到，科技对市场流动性是非常敏感的。市场流动性比较充沛的时候，它发挥的余地和空间比较 大。那么市场流动性比较紧张的时候，会对它形成压制。就像在今年的4月份和5月份，其实这 ...

策略研究 / 2025.06.30 全球资本流向非美,国内杠杆资金加快扩张 方奕(分析师) 021-38676666 -投资者微观行为洞察手册 · 6月第 3 期 登记编与 S0880520120005 本报告导读: 郭胤含(分析师) 021-38676666 本期市场交易热度大幅抬升,融资资金大幅流入,ETF与外资资金转为流出,偏股 基金新发规模边际下降。南下资金流入持续抬升。 合记编与 S0880524100001 投资要点: 田开轩(分析师) 市场定价状态:市场整体交易热度快速抬升,赚钱效应明显。1)市 0 场情绪(上升):本期国泰海通资金流入强度指数整体持续上升, 食记编与 S0880524080006 市场交易热度底部抬升,全 A 日均成交额从 1.2 万亿上升至 1.5 万 亿,上证指数换手率分位数上升至85%,科创板换手率分位数上升 至 40%。日均涨停家数上升至 71 家,最大连板数为 6个,封板率上 升至 77.2%,龙虎榜上榜家数降至 61 家。2）赚钱效应(上升): 行业交易集中度回升,本期行业换手率历史分位数处于 90%以上的 行业有 7个,环比增加5个,其中换手率分位数超 95%的行 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority reported a 2.5% increase in total deposits of recognized institutions in May 2025, reflecting corporate fund flows [1] Group 1: Deposit Trends - Total deposits and Hong Kong dollar deposits increased by 6.7% and 7.9% respectively from the beginning of the year to the end of May [1] - Hong Kong's Renminbi deposits fell by 5.4% in May, totaling 975.6 billion Renminbi, primarily due to corporate fund flows [1] - Cross-border trade settlement in Renminbi amounted to 1,123.6 billion Renminbi in May, down from 1,362.1 billion Renminbi in April [1] Group 2: Money Supply - The Hong Kong dollar money supply M2 and M3 both rose by 3.2% in May, with year-on-year increases of 9.5% [1] - Seasonally adjusted Hong Kong dollar money supply M1 increased by 12.3% in May, with a year-on-year rise of 18.5%, partly reflecting investment-related activities [1] - Total money supply M2 and M3 both increased by 2.5% in May, with year-on-year increases of 10.7% for both M2 and M3 [1]

Group 1 - The market is undergoing a transformation phase, driven by deep changes in macroeconomic functions, with the Federal Reserve acting as a "shock absorber" despite persistent inflation data [1] - Goldman Sachs predicts that the upcoming non-farm payroll data will be a key catalyst, forecasting an addition of 85,000 jobs, below the market expectation of 113,000 [1] - Market liquidity is becoming the dominant force, replacing fundamentals, indicating that the market has become a policy tool [1] Group 2 - Institutional clients are cautious about chasing U.S. stocks due to weak corporate earnings outlook, the disappearance of "put options" from the Federal Reserve, and turmoil in the bond market [2] - The U.S. may enter a liquidity-driven cycle, while Europe relies on fiscal stimulus, with a preference for excess liquidity over government balance sheets [2] - In sector selection, cyclical industries in the U.S. (industrial, materials) are favored over bank stocks, which need a steepening yield curve and real growth to benefit [2] Group 3 - Stocks are fundamentally inflation assets, with a preference for the S&P 500 index to rise alongside U.S. Treasury yields [3] - The correlation between stocks and Treasury yields suggests a low acceptance of the "new cycle" narrative, with most trades linked to yield expansion and stock declines [3] - Macro factors have returned, leading to increased volatility, but asset prices may not move in a single direction, with a baseline scenario of rising Treasury yields and stock prices [3]

证券研究报告：固定收益报告 研究所 分析师:梁伟超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523070001 Email:liangweichao@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《超长期限：行情还能走多远？——信 用周报 20250625》 - 2025.06.26 固收周报 7 月利率会破新低么？ ——流动性周报 20250629 ⚫ 止盈节奏可能是 7 月交易的胜负手 季末流动性维持宽松，资金价格季节性上行，最后一个工作日"堆 积"效应显著。本季末的跨季进度显著偏慢，6 月最后一个工作日是 周一，"堆积"效应可能带来资金面的波动加剧，但这大概率不会改变 7 月初资金面恢复到更加宽松的状态。相对而言，短端票息品种的表 现随市场情绪波动，同业存单在最后一周的抢跑效应明显减弱，利率 小幅提高，反映季末效应对于存单利率的影响。 长期利率也在抢跑后回到"低波动"状态。6 月最后一周，一方 面，抢跑之后的交易空间逼仄；另一方面，流动性宽松因素季节性减 弱；此外，权益市场情绪的显著修复也通过股债跷板压制债市。故 6 月末，长端利率并未"一鼓作气"，凝聚更多突破式下行的力量，相对 于已经拉长的久期和提高的仓位，交易盘进一步突 ...

物价低位，经济分化 [Table_Authors] 国内高频指标跟踪（2025 年第 25 期） 本报告导读：经济生产和需求两端均呈结构性分化，物价整体下行 投资要点： 宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.06.29 2025-06-30 宏 观 研 究 宏 观 周 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 [Table_Summary] 上周经济数据分化，有待政策发力。消费方面，商品消费边际改善， 汽车批发零售回升，纺服需求修复，暑期人口流动和游乐消费旺盛， 但高端餐饮酒水受政策影响，茅台价格回落，电影、旅游消费平淡。 投资方面，专项债发行提速，新房销售季末冲量但不及往年，二手 房成交下滑，基建和房建进度边际改善。进出口方面，运力恢复但 外需平淡，BDI 指数下跌。生产方面，除高温下生活用电增加带动耗 煤回升，其余行业大多承压，钢铁、石化行业表现一般，新兴行业 中光伏表现较佳。库存方面，中下游行业以补库为主。物价方面， CPI 和 PPI 整体下跌，原油、水泥等品类仍在降价，不过钢铁、铜铝、 碳酸锂等金属品类有所涨价。流动性方面，美元指数降至 98 以下， 月末央行净投放呵护 ...