| | | PX&PTA&PR | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 品种 | 更新日期 | 单位 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌(幅) | | | 期货结算价(连续):WTI原油 | 2025/6/2 | 美元/桶 | 62.52 | 61.84 | 1.10% | | 上 | 期货结算价(连续):布伦特原油 | 2025/6/2 | 美元/桶 | 64.63 | 64.90 | -0.42% | | 游 | 现货价(中间价):石脑油:CFR日本 | 2025/5/30 | 美元/吨 | 0.00 | 569.50 | -100.00% | | | 现货价(中间价):二甲苯(异构级):FOB韩国2025/5/30 | | 美元/吨 | 708.50 | 716.50 | -1.12% | | | 现货价:对二甲苯PX:CFR中国主港 | 2025/5/30 | 美元/吨 | 841.33 | 852.17 | -1.27% | | | CZCE TA 主力合约 收盘价 | 2025/5/30 | 元/吨 | 4700.00 | 48 ...

1 光期研究 2 0 2 5年6月橡 胶 策 略 报 告 2 0 2 5 年 6 月 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 橡胶：需求负反馈或逐步显现，胶价震荡探底 p 2 | | 目 | 录 | | --- | --- | --- | | 1、价格：期货盘面偏弱震荡 | | | | 2、供应：天胶国内外开割季 | | | | 3、需求：轮胎库存累库高位 | | | | 4、库存：天然橡胶库存累库趋缓 | | | | 5、持仓：NR持仓高于同期，RU持仓恢复中 | | | p 3 1.1 价格：RU盘面月跌幅7.9%，NR盘面月跌幅3.42%，BR盘面月涨幅0.59% p 4 1.2 价格：橡胶主力合约基差 | 单位 ：元/吨 | 基 差 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | RU主力基差 NR主力基差 | | BR主力基差 | | 2025/5/30 | -55 | 134 | 555 | | 2025/4/30 | -155 | 101 | 620 | | 涨跌值 | 100 | 32 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪锌期货早报-2025年6月3日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 指标体系 沪锌: 1、基本面：外媒5月21日消息:世界金属统计局( WBMS )公布的最新数据报 告显示, 2025年3月，全球锌板产量为108.74万吨,消费量为113.35万吨， 供应短缺4.6万吨。1-3月,全球锌板产量为328.31万吨,消费量为338.48万 吨,供应短缺10.16万吨。3月,全球锌矿产量为100.78万吨。1-3月，全球锌 矿产量为296.11万吨；偏多。 2、基差：现货22850，基差+355；偏多。 3、库存：6月2日LME锌库存较上日减少1000吨至138150吨，5月30日上期所 锌库存仓单较上日减少0吨至1675吨；偏多。 4、盘面：昨日沪锌震荡下跌走势，收20日均线之下,2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate market is expected to remain weak in the short term due to oversupply, with prices likely to continue facing downward pressure [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - The battery-grade lithium carbonate index price is 60,456 yuan per ton, down 445 yuan per ton from the previous working day [1] - Demand from downstream material manufacturers is limited, with production increases in June being minimal, leading to a reliance on long-term contracts and customer-supplied materials for procurement [1] - On the supply side, previous slight price rebounds have provided opportunities for some non-integrated lithium salt manufacturers to resume production, creating expectations for increased market supply [1]

煤焦：库存压力仍大 盘面弱势未改 晨报 煤焦 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 数据方面，上周 523 座炼焦煤样本矿山数据，原煤日产 191.8 万吨， 环比减少 1.8 万吨，产量连续两周下滑。据了解山西减产煤矿增加，吕梁 因倒换工作面等井下原因减产煤矿增多，晋中、临汾等地煤矿因库存及亏 损压力减产煤矿增加，产量受到抑制。不过当前煤矿端库存压力尚未减轻， 上周煤矿端原煤库存增至 641.1 万吨，同比增加 305.1 万吨；精煤库存 473 万吨，同比增加 198.7 万吨。 原材料：程 鹏 上周煤焦需求延续小幅回落走势，钢厂日均铁水产量降至 241.91 万 吨，环比下降 1.7 万吨，同比增加 6.08 万吨。钢厂整体盈利率小幅收窄， 引导开工下滑，总体上对冲了煤矿近期的减产行为，煤价依然偏弱。 观点：供需均高位 ...

油脂油料早报 研究中心农产品团队 2025/06/03 隔 夜 市 场 信 息 ： 【美国农业部】5月22日止当周美国大豆出口销售合计净增17.88万吨，符合预期 5月22日止当周，美国2024/2025市场年度大豆出口销售净增14.6万吨，较之前一周减少53%，较前四周均值减少 58%。市场预估为净增15-50万吨。其中，对中国大陆出口销售净减200吨。 当周，美国2025/2026年度大豆出口销售净增3.28万吨。市场预估为净增0-25万吨。 当周，美国大豆出口装船20.93万吨，创市场年度低位-较之前一周减少17%，较前四周均值减少45%。 当周，美国2024/2025市场年度大豆新销售16.48万吨，2025/2026市场年度大豆新销售3.28万吨。 【美国农业部】5月22日止当周美国豆粕出口销售合计净增60.31万吨，高于预期 5月22日止当周，美国2024/2025市场年度豆粕出口销售净增42.46万吨，较之前一周增加18%，较前四周均值增加 57%。市场预估为净增15-40万吨。 当周，美国2025/2026年度豆粕出口销售净增17.85万吨，市场预估为净增0-5万吨。 当周，美国豆粕出口装船2 ...

2025-06-03 纯碱玻璃周度报告汇总 研究员：于小栋 从业资格号：F3081787 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0019360 目 录 C O N T E N T S 01 纯碱市场综述 02 月度供需 03 基差价差 04 纯碱市场价格 05 纯碱供应 06 纯碱需求 07 纯碱库存 08 仓单数量/有效预报 09 地产相关数据 01 玻璃市场综述 02 月度供需 03 基差价差 04 玻璃市场价格 05 玻璃供应 06 玻璃需求 07 玻璃库存 纯碱 玻璃 01 纯碱市场综述 目录 目 录 周度市场综述 | | | | | | 纯 碱 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 项 目 | 备 注 | 当 期 | 环 比 | 下期 (E) | 下下期 (E) | 思 路 | | | | 总产量（万吨） | | 68.51 | 2.13 | 69.00 | 70.16 | | | | 供 应 | 重质产量（万吨） | | 36.98 | 0.98 | 37.24 | 37.87 | 前期检修计划逐步结束，产量上行趋势 ...

Core Insights - In May 2025, both spot and futures prices for industrial silicon experienced significant declines, with spot prices dropping to 7556 CNY/ton, a decrease of 14.41% from April, and futures prices hitting a low of 7130 CNY/ton, down 16.45% [1] Supply and Demand - Industrial silicon supply slightly decreased in May to approximately 303,000 tons, a 4% month-over-month decline, primarily due to maintenance in Xinjiang and capacity adjustments in Yunnan and Gansu [1] - June is expected to see an increase in production from Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Yunnan, potentially exceeding 350,000 tons [1] - Demand from organic silicon enterprises showed a minor recovery in May, with an expected increase of 0.5 thousand tons, although procurement plans remain modest [1] - Export figures for April were 60,500 tons, reflecting a 1.64% month-over-month increase but a 9.19% year-over-year decrease, with total exports from January to April at 216,700 tons, down 6.54% year-over-year [1] Cost and Profitability - In June, companies in Sichuan are expected to benefit from lower electricity prices during the wet season, leading to a noticeable reduction in costs, while Yunnan's electricity prices remain relatively stable with weak operational intentions [1] - The prices of silicon stone and silicon coal have decreased, with Taiwan's焦中标价 dropping to 101 USD/ton [1] - May saw a decline in gross margins, with most manufacturers experiencing negative cash costs [1] Inventory and Market Outlook - In May, inventory levels shifted towards the market, leading to a mid-month rebound in futures prices, while factories in the northwest engaged in hedging, resulting in a transfer of inventory from factories to non-standard warehouses [1] - The industry outlook for profitability remains pessimistic, with expected significant production increases in June and high inventory levels contributing to new lows in futures prices [1] - Recommendations for investors include shorting the 2508 futures contract or selling out-of-the-money call options, while traders or upstream companies are advised to sell call options to maintain inventory [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal mining industry [4] Core Views - The coal mining sector is currently facing a prolonged downturn in prices, with market sentiment at a low point. However, there are signs of potential recovery as some production capacities are experiencing losses, indicating a gradual emergence of cost support. The industry is awaiting favorable policy changes to restore confidence [2][10] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The coal mining market is experiencing a narrow adjustment with slight supply tightening in major production areas. Downstream demand remains primarily driven by essential needs [13] - Port inventories are continuously decreasing, but there is still a lack of upward momentum in prices due to limited demand from downstream buyers [14] - The shipping market has seen a slight increase in the number of vessels at northern ports, indicating some recovery in logistics [27] Key Companies - Recommended stocks include China Shenhua (601088.SH), Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry (601225.SH), and Xinji Energy (601918.SH), all rated as "Buy" with projected earnings per share (EPS) growth [9] - China Shenhua is highlighted as a central enterprise with strong performance, while companies like Qinfa and New Hope Energy are noted for their potential turnaround [10] Price Movements - As of May 30, the price of thermal coal at the port is reported at 620 CNY/ton, remaining stable week-on-week. However, the market is characterized by a lack of strong demand from power plants, leading to a cautious purchasing attitude [37] - Coking coal prices are under pressure, with significant declines observed in various grades, indicating a bearish market sentiment [40][53] Market Outlook - The report emphasizes that the coal industry will maintain its critical role in China's energy system during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. The overall supply-demand balance is expected to remain stable, with a potential increase in industry concentration [37]

Group 1 - OPEC+ has approved an increase in daily production quotas by 411,000 barrels, consistent with previous months' increases, aligning with market expectations [4] - The decision to increase production contrasts with earlier rumors of a faster recovery of capacity, which had pressured oil prices downward [4] - Geopolitical risks, particularly the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and tensions surrounding Iran's nuclear program, are significant factors influencing oil prices [4][5] Group 2 - The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported that Iran's enriched uranium production has reached a historic high, raising concerns about potential military applications [5] - Despite short-term geopolitical factors supporting oil prices, the market faces downward pressures due to ongoing US-China trade tensions and expectations of slowing global economic growth [5] - The strategy of oil-producing countries has shifted from "price protection" to "market share protection," balancing fiscal needs with market capacity through gradual production increases [5]