1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market has been in a volatile and weakening pattern this week (7/7 - 7/11), with the stock - bond "seesaw" effect being the main trigger for market adjustments, along with tightened regulatory expectations and a convergent capital market in the second half of the week [1][6]. - In the past two weeks, the bond market has been in a volatile pattern. Although the market remains in a long - term mindset, the "fear of high prices" has not been alleviated. The trading logic mainly revolves around the capital market and the stock market, and the market is waiting for new signals [2][15]. - Looking ahead, factors such as the stock - bond linkage effect, the stability of capital interest rates, next week's economic and financial data, the July Politburo meeting, and the supply - demand game in the bond market are worthy of attention. In the third quarter, the bond market is still in a favorable environment, with long - term interest rates expected to fluctuate narrowly around 1.65%, and there is no need to overly worry about credit risks [3][28][29]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bond Market Volatility and Weakening - This week, the bond market was under pressure. The stock - bond "seesaw" was the main adjustment logic, and regulatory expectations and capital convergence also suppressed the market. From Monday to Friday, bond yields showed different changes, with short - term adjustments being more significant, and the yield curve flattened slightly. Most yields of certificates of deposit (CDs) also increased [1][6]. 3.2 Capital Interest Rates - This week, the capital market was first loose and then tight, with capital interest rates rising moderately. After the cross - quarter period, the capital interest rate center entered a downward channel, and DR001 still ran below the policy interest rate. The average weekly values of DR001, R001, DR007, and R007 changed compared to the previous week, and the capital stratification remained at a low level, although overnight capital stratification increased in the second half of the week [8][10]. 3.3 Profit - Taking or Re - Layout Opportunity - In the past two weeks, the bond market has shown different trends. Last week, it was volatile and relatively strong, while this week it was volatile and weak due to the shift of the capital market to a neutral state and the rise of the stock market, leading to some short - term profit - taking [15]. - There are several characteristics: 1) When the capital interest rate "stepped down", the market did not follow. Except for the 50 - year Treasury bond, other long - term bond yields were mostly in a sideways state, and the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bonds and DR007 reached relatively high levels since the second quarter [16]. 2) The volatility of credit - type assets was greater than that of interest - rate bonds. Last week, different assets compressed spreads, but this week they entered an adjustment phase, with Tier 2 and perpetual bonds having a greater adjustment amplitude [21]. 3) Behind the "V" - shaped trend of credit - type assets, the trading desks mainly composed of funds shifted from increasing allocations to taking profits. Last week, funds bought credit and Tier 2 and perpetual bonds, but this week, their buying power weakened, and they started to reduce holdings in the second half of the week [22]. - The bond market's volatile pattern is due to the balance of long and short forces. The fundamental structural repair supports the bond market, while the monetary policy is in a dynamic balance between "moderate" and "loose". Although there are expectations for overall easing policies in the second half of the year, the probability of short - term implementation is relatively low [26]. 3.4 Factors to Watch in the Future - Stock - bond linkage effect: If the stock market is supported by factors such as tariff game mitigation, policy strengthening, or fundamental improvement, it will affect the bond market through changes in institutional liability and allocation power, increasing market volatility [3][28]. - Capital interest rates: Whether capital interest rates can remain at a low level needs to be observed. Next week, there will be more "variables" in the capital market, and how the central bank responds to various factors will be an important determinant of the stability of capital interest rates [3][28]. - Economic and financial data and the July Politburo meeting: Next week's economic and financial data and the July Politburo meeting may release incremental signals, which are important windows for macro - policy adjustment [29]. - Supply - demand game in the bond market: In the third quarter, there may be a surge in government bond supply, which may disrupt the bond market, but considering the current coordination between monetary and fiscal policies, there may be no need for excessive concern. The allocation situation of configuration desks such as bank self - operations and insurance companies also needs attention [3][28][29]. 3.5 Next Week's Focus - Next week, a series of economic and financial data from China, Germany, the EU, the US, the UK, and Japan will be released, including import and export amounts, social financing scale, GDP, CPI, and PPI, which are worthy of attention [31].

Group 1 - The market sentiment has improved despite a slight drop in the index, as funds have shifted from high-weight sectors to lower-weight sectors like robotics [1] - Financial stocks are identified as the only risk in the current market, which saw a significant decline in the afternoon session [1] - The outlook for the second half of the year is optimistic, with expectations of easing relations and a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, leading to a better market environment [1] Group 2 - The market is currently in a bullish trend, with the 5-day moving average reaching new highs, indicating a positive outlook [2] - There is an expectation for a style switch in the market, with a focus on maintaining volume and sentiment [2] - The decline in bond prices is seen as beneficial for the stock market, suggesting a potential shift in investment dynamics [2]

Group 1 - The National Development Bank Bond ETF (159651) is experiencing a tight market with a latest quote of 106.23 yuan as of July 11, 2025, and has accumulated a 1.86% increase over the past year as of July 10, 2025 [1] - The ETF has a trading volume of 10.46 million yuan with a turnover rate of 1.19% on the day, and an average daily trading volume of 534 million yuan over the past year [1] - The ETF has seen a net value increase of 4.59% over the past two years, with a historical monthly profit probability of 88.23% and a 100% profit probability for holding over two years [1] Group 2 - The ETF closely tracks the China Bond - 0-3 Year National Development Bank Bond Index, which includes policy bank bonds with a maturity of up to three years [2] - Current market conditions indicate a shift in the relationship between stocks and bonds, with speculation that the demand for 10-year government bonds may lead to a repricing, potentially widening the spread between government bonds and certificates of deposit by an estimated 5-10 basis points [3] - The bond market is showing signs of weakness, which may affect credit bonds, while the 2-5 year National Development Bank bonds may become more attractive as a safe haven for funds [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The short - term market sentiment is good, and the coking coal futures are expected to maintain a relatively strong operation [2] - The caustic soda 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with support at the 2460 level [3] - The short - term hog price is expected to be slightly weak, and range trading is recommended [5] - The palm oil price is expected to be weak in the short - term [5] - The soybean meal price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, with strong technical support in the 2900 - 2920 range [6] - The iron ore is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, and short - term long positions are recommended on dips [7] - The rebar futures are expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term [8] - The soda ash 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with pressure at the 1260 level [9] - The PP 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with pressure at the 7115 level [10] - The crude oil is bearish at high levels [11] - Short - term short positions on PTA at high levels are recommended [11] - Caution is advised regarding the rubber's rebound, and it is better to wait and see [12] - The short - term decline space of short - term treasury bonds is limited, and the stock - bond seesaw should be monitored [13] - Whether the medium - and long - term treasury bonds enter a downward trend remains to be seen, and the July Politburo meeting should be watched [13] - The silver is expected to oscillate slightly bullishly [14] - The gold will have a medium - term wide - range oscillation pattern, and the dollar - gold seesaw is the main logic [14] Group 3: Summaries by Variety Coking Coal - Mysteel statistics show that coke daily output, capacity utilization, and inventories of coke, coking coal, and injection coal have changed. The short - term fundamentals of coking coal have not improved significantly, but the futures price has rebounded due to positive news [2] Caustic Soda - In Shandong, the price of 32% liquid caustic soda has increased, the caustic soda capacity utilization rate has decreased slightly, and the enterprise inventory has declined. Downstream demand is relatively stable, and the 09 contract is expected to oscillate [3] Hog - The agricultural product wholesale price index shows an increase in pork and egg prices. However, due to supply - demand game and increasing supply pressure, the hog price is expected to be slightly weak [5] Palm Oil - Malaysia's June palm oil production decreased, imports increased, exports decreased, and inventory increased. Domestic demand is weak, and the price is expected to be weak [5] Soybean Meal - Brazil's expected July soybean and soybean meal exports have increased, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate strongly due to trade concerns and oil mill situations [6] Iron Ore - Global and Australian - Brazilian iron ore shipments have decreased. Demand has also shown some changes, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate strongly [7] Rebar - Rebar production has decreased, inventory has continued to decline slightly, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate strongly due to policy expectations [8] Soda Ash - The price of heavy - quality soda ash is in a downward trend, production has decreased, and inventory has increased. The short - term price is expected to oscillate [9] Polypropylene - The price of polypropylene has increased, the capacity utilization rate has decreased, and the inventory has changed. The short - term price is expected to oscillate [10] Crude Oil - OPEC is discussing pausing further production increases, and demand has been revised down. The price is bearish at high levels [11] PTA - The price of PX and PTA and relevant cash - flow costs are given. Due to weak demand and a weakening crude oil, short - term short positions at high levels are recommended [11] Rubber - The prices of Thai and Hainan rubber raw materials are provided. Supply is increasing slowly, and demand is weak. Caution is advised regarding the rebound [12] Short - term Treasury Bonds - Shibor short - term interest rates have changed, indicating tight short - term liquidity. The short - term decline space is limited [13] Medium - and Long - term Treasury Bonds - Local governments have issued a large amount of replacement bonds, and fiscal policies are active. Whether the bonds enter a downward trend remains to be seen [13] Silver - Fed officials have differences on July interest - rate cuts. The silver price has broken through the oscillation range, and the short - term is expected to oscillate slightly bullishly [14] Gold - The number of initial jobless claims in the US has decreased, and the dollar index has risen. Fed officials have differences on July interest - rate cuts. The gold price will have a medium - term wide - range oscillation pattern [14]

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-焦煤】本周Mysteel统计全国110家洗煤厂样本：开 工率62.33%较上期增2.60%；日均产量52.59万吨增2.00万吨； 原煤库存300.77万吨减11.40万吨；精煤库存197.07万吨减 17.91万吨。评：近日炼焦煤市场稳中偏强运行，价格多数有所 上涨，煤矿成交情况也较好，多数煤矿已经出现预售情况，多 数煤矿端库存已经不存在压力，煤矿挺价意愿较强。终端补库 带动了投机氛围，对市场情绪有一定提振作用，但产地端煤矿 处于复产节奏当中，后续重点关注煤矿产量以及下游焦钢企业 盈利情况，预计短期炼焦煤价格稳中偏强运行。 【短评-黄金】美国总统特朗普在社交媒体平台上发布致8 个国家领导人有关加征关税的信函。其中，巴西将被征收50%的 关税，利比亚、伊拉克、阿尔及利亚和斯里兰卡将被征收30%的 关税，文莱和摩尔多瓦的税率是25%，菲律宾的税率是20%。新 税率将从8月1日起生效。此前，特朗普已向日本、韩国等14个 国家发出了首批关税信函，关税税率从25%到40%不等。他同时 预告本周还会有更多此类信函发出。评：虽然各国对关税均有 所表态，但是关税扰动减弱，市场关注度有所降 ...

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-白银】美国总统特朗普再次表示，美联储主席鲍威 尔应立即辞职。此外，特朗普还在社交媒体平台"真实社交" 上发文表示，经济顾问委员会的一项新研究发现，关税对通胀 毫无影响。事实上，研究表明进口价格实际上正在下降。特朗 普还表示，应该把这项新研究给"太迟先生"美联储主席鲍威 尔看看。评：市场目前认为7月不降息的概率为95.3%，9月不降 息的概率为34.2%，美联储7月降息预期减弱，但是美国经济韧 性好，利多风险资产。后续白银进一步上涨动力不强，或跟随 黄金走势。白银短期或震荡略偏空，关注黄金白银走势是否同 步。 【短评-纯碱】 全国重质纯碱主流价1262元/吨，震荡下行 趋势；纯碱周度产量70.89万吨，环比-1.1%；纯碱厂家总库存 180.95万吨，周上升2.41万吨；浮法玻璃开工率75.68%，周度 +0.68%；全国浮法玻璃均价1173元/吨，环比上日-1元/吨；全 国浮法玻璃样本企业总库存6908.5万重箱，环比下降0.19%。 评：浮法玻璃开工较稳，库存小幅下降，华东市场暂稳，企业 多稳价出货，多数加工厂订单未有显著改善，操作刚需为主。 国内纯碱市场偏弱震荡，供应高 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current market trends, highlighting the strong performance of the stock market approaching the 3500-point mark, alongside a balanced and loose funding environment, with slight increases in long-term bond yields [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index has reached its highest closing level since September 2022, just a step away from the 3500-point mark [4]. - The stock market is exhibiting strong performance, with a notable "stock-bond seesaw" effect observed as bond yields fluctuate [3]. Group 2: Funding Environment - The central bank conducted a 690 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, with 1310 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 620 billion yuan [1]. - The funding rates remain stable, with DR001 around 1.31% and DR007 around 1.46% [1]. Group 3: Interest Rates and Transactions - The weighted average rates for various repo codes show slight increases, with R001 at 1.37% and R007 at 1.51%, indicating a minor upward trend in interest rates [2]. - The trading volume for R007 increased by 1537.10 million yuan, reflecting active market participation [2].

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-原油】欧佩克+的八个产油国在8月3日继续举行会 议，以审查市场状况、合规情况和补偿事宜。依据列表，8月份 沙特阿拉伯原油日产量可以达到975.6万桶；俄罗斯原油日产量 可以达到934.4万桶。伊拉克原油日产量可以达到417.1万桶， 阿联酋原油日产量可以达到327.2万桶；科威特原油日产量可以 达到251.8万桶；哈萨克斯坦原油日产量可以达到153.2万桶。 评：OPEC+维持增产的立场不变。短期原油低库存，消费旺季， 成品油开工和加工利润尚可。中期重点关注6-8月期间OPEC+实 际产量落实情况。短期震荡，中期等待沽空时机成熟。适度提 防地缘演化。 【短评-黄金】美国总统特朗普接连在社媒上公布其对多个 国家发出的关税信函，截至目前，其已对14个国家发出最新的 关税税率威胁。其中日本、韩国、哈萨克斯坦、马来西亚和突 尼斯面临25%的关税税率，南非、波斯尼亚税率为30%，印尼税 率为32%，孟加拉国和塞尔维亚为35%，泰国和柬埔寨税率为 36%，老挝和缅甸税率为40%。上述关税将于8月1日生效。评： 关税扰动再起，避险情绪对贵金属或有一定支撑，但是本次关 税扰动或较弱，市场关 ...

Macro Economic Overview - The US job market is experiencing a mild cooling, with June non-farm payrolls increasing by 147,000, a decrease of 73,000 from the previous month [2][3] - The unemployment rate in June stands at 4.1%, down by 0.1 percentage points from May, but the labor force participation rate has dropped to 62.3%, the lowest since 2023, indicating potential overestimation of the unemployment rate [2][3] Asset Allocation Recommendations - The recommended order for asset allocation remains: equities > commodities > bonds > cash [3][4] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the implementation of "incremental" policies for equities and the impact of the "stock-bond seesaw" effect on the bond market [4][39] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.54% this week, with the leading sectors being steel (5.27%), banking (3.78%), and building materials (3.63%) [39][40] - The ten-year government bond yield remained stable at 1.64%, while the ten-year government bond futures increased by 0.04% [12][44] Economic Data Insights - Internet enterprises in China reported a revenue of 773.5 billion yuan in the first five months, a year-on-year growth of 0.9%, while total profits decreased by 2.2% [25] - The construction material inventory increased by 50,000 tons in the week of July 4, indicating a potential rise in supply [26][30] Regulatory Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission is focusing on optimizing capital market mechanisms to enhance the efficiency of resource allocation towards high-potential sectors [39][41] - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development is emphasizing the need for precise policies to stabilize the real estate market, encouraging local governments to take responsibility [42]

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-聚丙烯】 华东拉丝级聚丙烯主流价7147元/吨，下 降1元/吨；聚丙烯产能利用率77.23%，较上日-0.29%；下游行 业平均开工49.05%，周下降0.58个百分点；聚丙烯商业库存 78.51万吨，周下降0.07万吨；两油聚烯烃库存71万吨，较昨日 持平。评：近期聚丙烯开工受检修影响有所下降，镇海炼化4PP 新装置顺利投产，整体供应仍充裕。近期聚丙烯商业库存偏稳 运行，高于前两年同期值，在供需宽松背景下，预计商业库存 阶段性仍高位运行。受传统淡季效应影响，制品行业订单量同 比下滑，聚丙烯接货积极性欠佳，交投氛围偏淡。预计PP 09合 约短期震荡运行，上方压力7120一线，建议观望。 【短评-黄金】美国财长贝森特称，贸易谈判的最后阶段出 现僵局，未来72小时在贸易谈判方面将会非常繁忙，未来几天 可能会有几项重大公告，贸易谈判的重点是占美国贸易赤字95% 的18个国家，8月1日的最后期限已在致各国的信函中说明；若8 月1日前未能达成协议，关税将恢复至4月水平。评：贸易谈判 仍然存在变数，但是市场对该消息较为平淡。美国非农大幅超 预期，市场降低了对7月降息的押注，黄金进一步上 ...