锡产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【 2011】1292号 2025年11月18日 Z0021810 冠帝斯 | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#锡 | 289900 | 292100 | -2200 | -0.75% | | | SMM 1#锡升贴水 | 600 | 600 | O | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 长江 1#锡 | 290400 | 292600 | -2200 | -0.75% | | | LME 0-3升贴水 | -87.50 | 15.30 | -102.80 | -671.90% | 美元/吨 | | 内外比价及进口盈亏 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 車位 | | 进口盈亏 | -15173.89 | -15424.05 | 250.16 | 1.62% | 元/吨 | | 沪伦比值 | 7.90 | 7.91 | - | - | | | 月间价差 | | | ...

中辉能化观点 中辉能化观点 | | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | PTA | 加工费整体偏低，装置复产延期叠加检修力度有所提升（虹港石化检 修、逸盛宁波本月下旬检修、英力士检修中，威联化学降负），供应端压 | | PX/PTA | | 力有所缓解；需求略显改善，终端订单短期企稳，但稳定性有待跟踪。成 | | | 谨慎看多 本端 | PX 国内外均有所降负（上海石化、中化泉州停车，越南 NSRP 降负）， | | ★ | | 走势偏强。TA12 月存累库预期。短期来看，基本面有所改善，但原油承 | | | | 压，反弹高度或将有限。策略：单边关注逢低布局多单机会；套利关注做 | | | 扩 | ta 加工费（即多 pta，空 px）。 | | | | 近期国内煤制装置检修有所增加，开工负荷下行（红四方临停、正达凯检 | | | | 修、广汇降负、河南能源延后重启）、海外装置略有提负（台湾南亚 1#重 | | 乙二醇 | | 启），新装置投产（裕龙石化投产；宁夏畅亿、襄矿泓通计划投产）叠加 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 检修装置恢复 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年11月18日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 供给端来看，上周工业硅供应量为9.1万吨，环比持平。 需求端来看，上周工业硅需求为8.4万吨，环比增长2.44%.需求有所抬升. 多晶硅库存为26.7万吨，处于低位，硅片亏损，电池片亏损，组件盈利； 有机硅库存为56300吨，处于低位，有机硅生产利润为-156元/吨，处于亏 损状态，其综合开工率为72.18%，环比持平，低于历史同期平均水平；铝 合金锭库存为7.21万吨，处于高位，进口亏损为331元/吨，A356铝送至无 锡运费和利润为695.42元/吨，再生铝开工率为60.6%，环比增加2.54%, 处于高位。 1、基本面: 偏多。 成本端 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "Oscillation" [6] Core View of the Report - Currently, the industry's supply - demand situation is marginally weakening, in line with the characteristics of the off - season. This fundamental pattern is expected to continue, providing limited guidance on price trends. In the short term, the market will maintain an oscillatory trend. If there are still positive macro and policy signals in the later stage, staged upward opportunities can be observed [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - Overseas mine shipments have increased significantly on a month - on - month basis. Both Australia, Brazil, and non - mainstream countries have seen growth. After reaching a peak, the arrival volume has continued to decline on a month - on - month basis. Port inventory has slightly decreased. Although iron ore replenishment demand has not been significantly released, there is still upward momentum in the short term after the previous rapid price decline. The supply - demand of scrap steel is weak on both sides, and it is expected that the short - term spot price will fluctuate with the finished products [2] Carbon Element - After the lifting of environmental protection restrictions, steel mills are still actively producing, and the demand for coke is still supported. After four rounds of price increases, coke prices are in a dilemma of rising or falling, and the coke futures price is expected to fluctuate with coking coal. The supply of coking coal is expected to remain sluggish. Although Mongolian coal imports may remain at a high level, the supply is limited. The fundamentals are still healthy, and the spot coal price is strongly supported, but the futures price is still suppressed by the finished products and the pressure of warehouse receipts is large. It is expected that the coking coal price will oscillate [3] Alloys - In the short term, the firm cost supports the price of ferromanganese - silicon, but the market supply - demand is loose, and there is insufficient driving force for price increases. The short - term cost trend strongly supports the price of ferrosilicon, but the market supply - demand relationship is relatively loose, and the price is expected to operate at a low level around the cost [3] Glass and Soda Ash - There are still expectations of supply disruptions, but the inventory of middle and downstream enterprises is moderately high. Currently, the supply - demand is still in surplus. If there is no more cold - repair before the end of the year, high inventory will always suppress prices, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise. The cost of the soda ash industry has increased, providing obvious bottom support. However, the surplus supply - demand pattern always suppresses price increases. Recently, the further weakening of glass prices has dragged down the expected price of soda ash. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate. In the long run, the surplus supply pattern will intensify, and the price center will continue to decline, promoting capacity reduction [3] Steel - The third round and fifth batch of central ecological and environmental protection inspections have started, which will affect steel production in North China. The spot market transactions are generally good, but the profitability of steel mills is poor, and the production volume has decreased significantly. The demand has declined from a high level, and the overall inventory of steel continues to decline, but the inventory level is still higher than the same period last year. It is expected that the futures will oscillate widely [7] Iron Ore - Port arrivals have declined on a month - on - month basis, and port inventory has slightly decreased. Overseas mine shipments have increased, and the average arrival volume is relatively stable. The daily average pig iron production has recovered on a month - on - month basis, but there is still a seasonal weakening expectation. The overall inventory is expected to continue to accumulate. In the short term, after the previous rapid price decline, it is expected to oscillate strongly [8] Scrap Steel - The arrival volume at steel mills has slightly increased this week. The demand for scrap steel in electric furnaces has slightly increased, while the demand in blast furnaces has decreased. The inventory of steel enterprises has slightly increased. The supply - demand of scrap steel is weak on both sides, but the price has a certain cost - performance after the decline, and it is expected to fluctuate with the finished products [9] Coke - After four rounds of price increases, the coking profit has improved, and the supply is temporarily stable. The demand is still supported, and the upstream inventory is low. In the short term, the supply - demand is still tight, and the inventory continues to decline, but the cost support has weakened. The futures price is expected to fluctuate with coking coal [11] Coking Coal - The supply is expected to remain sluggish. Although Mongolian coal imports may remain at a high level, the supply is limited. The fundamentals are still healthy, and the spot coal price is strongly supported, but the futures price is still suppressed by the finished products and the pressure of warehouse receipts is large. It is expected that the coking coal price will oscillate [13] Glass - The supply is expected to be disrupted. The inventory of middle and downstream enterprises is moderately high, and the current supply - demand is still in surplus. If there is no more cold - repair before the end of the year, high inventory will always suppress prices, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise [13] Soda Ash - The cost of the soda ash industry has increased, providing obvious bottom support. However, the surplus supply - demand pattern always suppresses price increases. Recently, the further weakening of glass prices has dragged down the expected price of soda ash. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate. In the long run, the surplus supply pattern will intensify, and the price center will continue to decline, promoting capacity reduction [14] Ferromanganese - Silicon - The price of ferromanganese - silicon is supported by cost in the short term, but the market supply - demand is loose, and there is insufficient driving force for price increases. It is expected to operate at a low level around the cost [17] Ferrosilicon - The short - term cost trend strongly supports the price of ferrosilicon, but the market supply - demand relationship is relatively loose, and the price is expected to operate at a low level around the cost [18]

金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 纯碱期货上涨核心逻辑：政策预期与供应收缩共振 11月17日纯碱期货2601合约上涨，核心逻辑是政策预期、供应收缩与成本支撑的三重共振。 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 政策面是关键推力，市场聚焦11月18日纯碱行业"反内卷"研讨会，产能调控、价格自律等议题引发利好 预期，资金提前布局推升盘面情绪。 供应端收缩信号明确，11月以来宁夏日盛、重庆和友等企业合计245万吨装置检修，后续还有305万吨装置 计划检修，叠加部分企业因成本压力停产，行业产能利用率环比下降，短期供应压力缓解。 2025/11/18 成本端支撑同步发力，11月以来煤炭、天然气价格上涨，推升纯碱生产边际成本，部分现货报价上调形成 联动支撑。 此外，玻璃期货走强带动产业链情绪回暖，资金交投活跃度提升进一步放大上涨趋势。不过需注意，行业 高库存、下游需求疲软的核心矛盾未改，短期上涨仍 ...

中辉能化观点 | | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | 俄罗斯西部港口恢复出口，关注南美地缘动态。OPEC 最新月报预计 26 | | 原油 | | 年原油供给出现过剩，油价大幅回落；OPEC+计划于 12 月继续扩产 13.7 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 万桶/日，并计划于明年初暂停扩产；供需方面，消费淡季开启，OPEC+ | | | | 仍在扩产周期，原油供给过剩压力逐渐上升，油价下行压力较大，重点关 | | | | 注原油边际产量变化。策略：空单部分止盈。 | | | | 油价企稳，库存端利好，液化气反弹走强。成本端原油受俄乌地缘扰动， | | LPG | | 企稳反弹；供需方面，液化气商品量下降，下游 PDH 开工小幅下降，需 | | ★ | 谨慎看多 | 求端韧性较强；库存端利好，港口与厂内库存连续去库。策略：成本端油 | | | | 价反弹，但上行空间受限，买入看跌期权。 | | | | 基差修复，主力移仓换月，盘面企稳反弹。国内开工季节性回升，进口量 | | L | 空头反弹 | 集中到港，国内外供给延续宽松格局 ...

PVC周报： 仓单再创新高，低位震荡 能源化工团队 郭建锋 Z0022887 郭艳鹏 Z0021323 李 倩 F03134406 中辉期货有限公司交易咨询业务资格 时 间 2025/11/16 证监许可[2025]75号 仓单再创新高，产业套保施压 【本周复盘】 本周PVC触底反弹，周线3连阴，主力再创年内新低。周初平开在4613，随后冲高回落，延续上周下 跌趋势；至周四夜盘跌至周内低点4560后低位反弹，周五午盘冲至日内高点4635后小幅回落，最终 收在4608（较上周收跌3点或0.6%）。全周在4560至4635间运行，振幅75点。 【下周展望】 基本面弱势难改，关注资金动态。11-12月氯碱企业传统开工淡季，产业链去库压力依旧偏高，盘 面维持升水结构，本周五仓单再创历史新高达到12.9万手，重点关注印度反倾销税政策变动。成本 端，电石毛利跌至低位，原料端兰炭表现坚挺，成本支撑有望走强。11月14月，主力持仓量为135 万手（同比+20万手）。考虑到11月中下旬后资金逐步开始移仓换月，关注空头平仓带来的阶段性 低多机会。 【策略】 1）单边：短期绝对价格低估值，根据资金动态轻仓参与反弹。V2601关注区 ...

从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 铅周报 2025 年 11 月 17 日 伦铅偏强支撑 沪铅调整有限 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 焦鹏飞 从业资格号：F03122184 投资咨询号：Z0023260 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/7 一、 要点 要点 上周沪铅主力期价冲高回落。宏观面看，美国政府结 束关门，但基于通胀的担忧，多位美联储官员发表偏 鹰言论，降息预期下调，同时国内经济数据持续疲软， 拖累市场风险偏好，铅价走势承压。 要点 基本面看，原料供应紧缺态势难改，内外铅精矿加工 费弱稳。河南地区维持环保管控，影响废旧电瓶拆解， 同时受铅价上涨影响，部分持货商捂货不出，带动废 旧电瓶报价小幅上涨，成本支撑 ...

供需双弱 成本支撑区间震荡 银河期货研究所 周涛 期货从业证号：F03134259 投资咨询证号：Z0021009 目录 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 第二章 核心逻辑分析 4 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 2 第三章 周度数据追踪 6 1 资料来源：Wind Bloomberg Mysteel GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 硅铁方面，供应端样本企业开工率与产量双双下降，关注价格来到低位后是否形成减产趋势。需求方面，本周钢联样本钢材表需与 产量继续双双下降，唐山阶段性限产结束后，本周铁水产量出现反弹，但目前钢材利润仍然不佳，原料需求端始终存在下行预期。 成本端方面，枯水期叠加煤炭现货价格强势，各产区铁合金电价总体稳中偏强。总体来看，基本面供需双弱，成本端有所抬升，预 计延续底部震荡走势。 锰硅方面，供应端同样出现小幅下滑，关注后续是否形成减产趋势。需求方面 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - The current macro - level is in a relatively vacuous period, A - shares lack a clear upward main line, market trading volume remains low, and stock indices continue to fluctuate, accumulating momentum for the next upward movement. With policy support and abundant macro - liquidity, there is still strong support below the stock indices [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space [1] Summary by Industry Categories Macro - Finance - A - shares lack a clear upward main line, trading volume is low, and stock indices fluctuate while accumulating upward momentum. There is strong support below the stock indices due to policy and liquidity [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term interest - rate risks are a concern [1] National Debt - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but short - term central bank warnings on interest - rate risks suppress the upward space [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - High copper prices inhibit downstream demand, but improved macro sentiment may lead to a stronger copper price [1] - Limited industrial drivers but improved macro market sentiment lead to a stronger aluminum price [1] - Domestic alumina production capacity is continuously released, with both production and inventory increasing, and the price fluctuates around the cost line [1] - There is still a risk of LME zinc squeeze, and the zinc price is expected to remain high. However, due to domestic oversupply, caution is needed when chasing high prices, and low - buying opportunities can be focused on [1] - The Indonesian government has restricted nickel - related smelting project approvals again, but approved projects are currently unaffected. In the fourth quarter, attention should be paid to the nickel ore quota approval in 2026. The nickel price may fluctuate in the short term, and high inventory pressure should be noted [1] - Stainless steel social inventory has slightly decreased, and steel mills' production schedules in November have declined. Attention should be paid to actual production [1] - The tin raw material end has not recovered, and there are good expectations for new - quality demand. Long - term, attention can be paid to low - buying opportunities [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - The short - term upward trend of precious metal prices may slow down. When the government shutdown ends and missing economic data is released, it may affect precious metal prices [1] - For industrial silicon, northwest production capacity is being restored, southwest start - up is weaker than usual, and the impact of the dry season is weakening [1] - For polysilicon, production schedules in November are decreasing, the anti - involution policy has not been implemented for a long time, and market sentiment has faded [1] - For lithium carbonate, the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, energy - storage demand is strong, but hedging pressure is high [1] Black Metals - For rebar, there are concerns about potential weakening of industrial demand in the off - season. After the macro sentiment is realized, attention should be paid to upward pressure, and the virtual value accumulated put strategy can be appropriately participated in [1] - For hot - rolled coils, the off - season effect is not obvious, but the industrial structure is still loose. Attention should be paid to the upward price pressure after the macro sentiment is realized [1] - For iron ore, the near - month is restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month still has upward opportunities [1] - For activated carbon, short - term production profit is poor, cost support is strengthening, direct demand is okay, but supply is high, and the price rebound is limited [1] - For coking coal, the price is in a dilemma near the previous high. It is necessary to repeatedly test the support. The coke futures price has factored in the expectation of five rounds of price increases, but downstream steel mill profits are being squeezed, and the steel - coke game is intense. The short - term strategy is to wait and see, and the long - term strategy is to buy at low prices. Industrial customers can consider selling hedging [1] - For coke, the logic is the same as that of coking coal. The futures price is at a premium, and industrial customers can consider selling hedging when the futures price rises [1] Agricultural Products - For soybean oil, China's commitment to purchase US soybeans has no substantial impact on soybean oil, and domestic inventory is decreasing. It is more resistant to decline among the three oils and can be over - allocated in arbitrage. Attention should be paid to the USDA supply - demand report [1] - For cotton, the domestic new crop has a strong harvest expectation, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. Downstream start - up is low, but there is rigid restocking demand. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "support but no driver", and future policies and demand situations should be noted [1] - For sugar, the global sugar supply has shifted from shortage to surplus, and the domestic new - crop supply pressure has increased year - on - year. The Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to follow the decline of the raw - sugar price [1] - For corn, short - term farmers are reluctant to sell, and some purchasers have restocking demand for high - quality corn. The spot price is firm, and the futures price rebounds. However, before the supply pressure is fully released, the upward drive is weak, and attention should be paid to farmers' selling rhythm [1] - For soybeans, the near - month purchase and crushing profit of both Brazilian and US soybeans in China is poor. Before the USDA report is released, the futures price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [1] Energy - Chemicals - For crude oil, OPEC + plans to maintain a small increase in production in December, short - term geopolitical tensions have cooled down, and Sino - US trade tariff policies have been temporarily suspended, easing market sentiment [1] - For fuel oil, similar to crude oil, short - term geopolitical tensions have cooled down, and Sino - US trade tariff policies have been temporarily suspended, easing market sentiment [1] - For asphalt, short - term supply - demand contradictions are not prominent, the "14th Five - Year Plan" construction demand is likely to be false, and the supply of raw - material Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient, with high profits [1] - For BR rubber, the cost - end butadiene support is insufficient, the supply of synthetic rubber is loose, and the high - inventory situation has not been the main suppressing factor. The short - term price has stopped falling, and attention should be paid to the subsequent rebound [1] - For PTA, gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. Overseas device failures and domestic device maintenance have led to a decline in PTA production [1] - For ethylene glycol, the decline in crude - oil price leads to a decline in ethylene - glycol price, while the increase in coal price strengthens the cost support. The "Golden September and Silver October" peak season for polyester is ending, and domestic demand has not significantly declined [1] - For short - fiber, gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX, the PTA price has rebounded, and the short - fiber basis has strengthened. The short - fiber price closely follows the cost [1] - For pure benzene, the Asian benzene price is weak, the US pure - benzene price has increased, and there are more benzene - ethylene maintenance projects [1] - For urea, export sentiment has eased, domestic demand is insufficient, and there is support from anti - involution policies and the cost end [1] - For PVC, new production capacity is being released, the intensity of maintenance has weakened, downstream demand has declined, and orders are poor [1] - For caustic soda, there is a risk of squeeze due to pre - delivery of Guangxi alumina, reduced subsequent maintenance concentration, inventory reduction, and limited near - month warehouse receipts [1] - For LPG, the international oil - gas fundamentals are continuously loose, the CP/FEI price has weakened, the futures price has been re - valued, and the domestic spot fundamentals are stable [1] Others - For the container shipping European line, the macro - positive sentiment has been digested, the peak - season price - increase expectation has been priced in advance, and the shipping capacity supply in November is relatively loose [1]