1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The market situation is complex, with different sectors showing various trends. Some sectors are affected by strong macro - expectations and weak fundamental realities, such as aluminum. Others are influenced by supply - demand imbalances, policy changes, and external events [2][25]. - In general, many sectors are in a state of volatility, and investors need to pay attention to specific factors in each sector, such as inventory changes, downstream consumption, and policy adjustments [2][70][84]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Selections - **Aluminum**: The market is dominated by the game between strong macro - expectations and weak fundamentals. It is expected to maintain high - level wide - range oscillations, with the Shanghai Aluminum main contract operating between 21800 - 22800 yuan/ton. Long positions can be arranged at low prices [2]. - **Methanol**: Due to device disruptions, the price has strengthened. The port may face inventory accumulation in December, but the supply - demand balance sheet is expected to turn to inventory reduction in the first quarter of the next year. Pay attention to inventory reduction after the actual arrival at the port decreases [3]. - **Iron Ore**: Supported by the steel mill's restocking expectation, the price is expected to oscillate strongly. It will transition from a supply - demand surplus to a supply - demand double - weak situation. Pay attention to iron water trends, steel mill restocking rhythms, and negotiation situations [3][55]. - **Pig**: The demand supports the market, and the macro and the futures market resonate. The spot price is expected to be strong in the short term, and the futures market is expected to oscillate strongly [4][72]. 3.2 Financial Derivatives 3.2.1 Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: Short - term negative factors are exhausted. It is recommended to continue holding bull spread combinations and sell a small amount of near - month out - of - the - money call options for hedging [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: In the short term, it is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation. After the New Year, pay attention to the capital situation. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [10]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - The price dropped sharply after a high - level rise. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see. In the medium - to - long - term, the price has an upward space. Long positions can be arranged after the callback [13][14]. 3.2.3 Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The main contract is in a consolidation stage, lacking obvious driving forces. It is expected to present an oscillatory pattern in the short term [16]. 3.3 Commodity Futures 3.3.1 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The short - term price may enter an oscillatory adjustment stage. It is recommended to take profits on long positions at high prices [20]. - **Alumina**: The policy is difficult to reverse the short - term supply - demand situation. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and short at high prices in the medium term [22]. - **Aluminum**: It is expected to maintain high - level wide - range oscillations. Long positions can be arranged at low prices [25]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: It is expected to continue high - level range oscillations. An arbitrage strategy of going long AD03 and short AL03 can be considered [28]. - **Zinc**: The short - term price may oscillate. It is recommended to hold cross - market reverse arbitrage positions [31]. - **Tin**: It is expected to be in high - level oscillations. It is recommended to wait and see [36]. - **Nickel**: It is expected to maintain a relatively strong oscillation. Pay attention to the possibility of a callback [39]. - **Stainless Steel**: It is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term. Pay attention to nickel ore news and steel mill production reduction implementation [42]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It is expected to maintain wide - range oscillations before the New Year. It is recommended to wait and see [46]. - **Polysilicon**: It is in high - level oscillations. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to production reduction and price adjustment acceptance [49]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It is in low - level oscillations. Pay attention to the implementation of production reduction [51]. 3.3.2 Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: It continues to reduce production and inventory. The price is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations [53]. - **Iron Ore**: It is expected to oscillate strongly. It is recommended to cautiously go long for short - term operations [55]. - **Coking Coal**: It is recommended to short at high prices unilaterally and consider an arbitrage strategy of going long coking coal and short coke [59]. - **Coke**: It is recommended to short the 2605 contract at high prices unilaterally and consider an arbitrage strategy of going long coking coal and short coke [61]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: It is expected to oscillate in the range of 5500 - 5700. Pay attention to coal price changes [64]. - **Silicon Manganese**: It is expected to be weak in the short term. It is recommended to short when the price rebounds above the Ningxia spot cost [67]. 3.3.3 Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The US soybeans maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern. The domestic spot is loose. It is recommended to operate cautiously [70]. - **Pig**: The demand supports the market. The short - term price is expected to be strong [72]. - **Corn**: The short - term price may rise due to the resonance of futures and cash, but the sustainability of the rise is limited. Pay attention to farmers' selling attitudes and policy releases [75]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar price is in a low - level oscillating platform. The domestic market should pay attention to the actual demand after the spot price rises. It is recommended to maintain a rebound - shorting idea [76]. - **Cotton**: The short - term cotton price may oscillate steadily and strongly [78]. - **Egg**: It is expected to maintain a low - level oscillating pattern [81]. - **Oils and Fats**: Palm oil may oscillate weakly; soybean oil may oscillate in a narrow range; rapeseed oil may test the pressure level of 9200 yuan [84][85]. - **Jujube**: The market sentiment is weak, and the rebound momentum is insufficient. It is recommended to short on rebounds [86]. - **Apple**: The short - term market is in a game between the scarcity of delivery fruits and the inventory pressure of ordinary fruits. Pay attention to the actual inventory reduction progress [88]. 3.3.4 Energy Chemicals - **PX**: It is under short - term pressure. It is recommended to exit long positions, short aggressively in the short term, and go long at low prices in the medium term [90]. - **PTA**: It is under short - term pressure. It is recommended to exit long positions, short aggressively in the short term, and go long at low prices in the medium term [92]. - **Short - fiber**: It follows the raw material fluctuations. It is recommended to short when the processing fee is high [93]. - **Bottle Chips**: The short - term processing fee will be compressed. It is recommended to follow the PTA strategy and short the processing fee at high prices [96]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price increase has resistance. It is recommended to conduct a reverse arbitrage on EG5 - 9 at high prices [97]. - **Pure Benzene**: It is in low - level oscillations. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 5300 - 5600 [98]. - **Styrene**: The rebound space is limited. It is recommended to short at 6800 and short the processing fee at high prices [100]. - **LLDPE**: It is recommended to go long the 2605 contract in the short term [101]. - **PP**: It is recommended to pay attention to the expansion of PDH profits [102]. - **Methanol**: Pay attention to the reduction of MTO05 [103]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price may continue to decline. It is in a weak supply - demand pattern [104]. - **PVC**: It is expected to rebound and then weaken. The supply - demand is in an excess pattern [106]. - **Soda Ash**: It is recommended to short on rebounds [108]. - **Glass**: It is recommended to wait and see [109]. - **Natural Rubber**: It is recommended to hold short positions at 15700 [113]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It is in wide - range oscillations. It is expected to oscillate between 11200 - 12000 in the short term [115].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily research and analysis on various energy and chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, synthetic rubber, LLDPE, PP, caustic soda, pulp, glass, methanol, urea, styrene, soda ash, LPG, propylene, PVC, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, container shipping index (European line), staple fiber, bottle chips, offset printing paper, and pure benzene. It analyzes the market trends, fundamentals, and provides corresponding trading suggestions for each product [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: High - level oscillation. Supply is marginally loose, with some domestic and overseas device changes. Demand from PTA devices decreases. It is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation before the holiday, and attention should be paid to position management [5][8]. - **PTA**: High - level oscillation. Supply increases as some devices restart. Demand from polyester has a marginal decline but remains at a high level. PTA maintains de - stocking, which is beneficial to the performance of the monthly spread and basis [9]. - **MEG**: The port inventory accumulates again, and the trend is still weak. Although there are some supply - side reduction expectations, the current inventory accumulation pattern is difficult to change. However, considering the cost factors, the inventory accumulation expectation is marginally improved, and interval operation is recommended [10]. 3.2 Rubber - Rubber shows a wide - range oscillation. The inventory in Qingdao has increased, and some tire enterprises have short - term maintenance plans at the end of the month and early next month, which has a certain impact on the overall tire enterprise capacity utilization rate [12][13]. 3.3 Synthetic Rubber - Synthetic rubber follows the decline of the commodity index. The fundamentals have weakened marginally in the past two weeks, and the futures price is at a premium to the spot price. It is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term [15][17]. 3.4 LLDPE - For LLDPE, the upstream inventory is transferred, and the basis is stable. The raw material price rebounds, and the profit of the monomer link is compressed. The downstream demand is weak, and the supply side has some device changes. There is still supply - demand pressure in the medium term [18][19]. 3.5 PP - PP is expected to have a stable and oscillating market. Multiple PDH devices are planned for maintenance in January. The cost side has some changes, and the demand side is weak. The overall fundamentals have limited support at the end of the year, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH devices [21][22]. 3.6 Caustic Soda - Caustic soda is in a pattern of high production and high inventory. The demand side is weak, and the supply side has high - pressure due to high - start production in winter. The rebound space may be limited if manufacturers do not reduce production, and attention should be paid to the delivery pressure in January [24][26]. 3.7 Pulp - Pulp is in a weakly oscillating state. The price of imported pulp has increased in December, but the internal driving logic is differentiated. The overall demand is rigid, but the demand for different types of pulp varies. It is expected to be weakly oscillating [30][35]. 3.8 Glass - The price of glass raw sheets is stable. The spot price has ups and downs, and the overall market trading flexibility has increased, but the shipment in most areas is still average [37]. 3.9 Methanol - Methanol oscillates with support. The port inventory has increased significantly, and there is an expectation of further inventory accumulation. It oscillates repeatedly within the valuation range under the pattern of weak fundamentals and strong macro - environment. The cost side provides support for the lower valuation [40][42]. 3.10 Urea - Urea is in short - term oscillating operation. The inventory of urea enterprises has decreased, and the demand side has a phased improvement. The driving force is neutral, and the 05 contract has support below. The upper and lower fundamental price limits are estimated [44][47]. 3.11 Styrene - Styrene is in short - term oscillation. The supply - demand structure of the styrene industry chain provides some support for its price in 2026, but there are also risks such as high inventory of downstream products. It is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation with a low - front and high - back center of gravity throughout the year [48][51]. 3.12 Soda Ash - The spot market of soda ash has little change. The price is weakly stable and oscillating, and the trading is light. The comprehensive production has decreased, and the downstream demand is not strong [52]. 3.13 LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: The short - term supply is tight, and attention should be paid to the realization of the downward driving force. - **Propylene**: The spot supply - demand is tightening, and there is an expectation of a stop - falling and rebound [54][55]. 3.14 PVC - PVC is in a weakly oscillating state. The valuation is at a low level, and although there may be phased rebounds, the high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change in the short term. It is recommended to wait for the substantial large - scale maintenance plan on the supply side [63][64]. 3.15 Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: The night - session volatility increases, and it may maintain a strong trend in the short term. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It is in a strongly oscillating state, and the spot price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas market is temporarily stable [67]. 3.16 Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The container shipping index (European line) is in high - level oscillation. The core issues for the 2602 contract include the freight rate height, inflection point time, and price - decline rate. For the 2604 contract, short - selling on rallies has a relatively high probability of success. For the 2610 contract, pay attention to the progress of the second - stage peace talks in Gaza and short on rallies in the medium - to - long term [69][82]. 3.17 Staple Fiber and Bottle Chips - **Staple Fiber**: It is in high - level oscillation. The futures price is in weak consolidation, the spot price is stable, and the sales are mostly weak. - **Bottle Chips**: It is in high - level oscillation. The upstream raw material futures price has decreased, and the factory price has been lowered. The market trading atmosphere is weak [84][85]. 3.18 Offset Printing Paper - For offset printing paper, it is recommended to wait and see. The prices in the Shandong and Guangdong markets are stable, the scale paper mills' operating loads are basically stable, and the market new orders are few [87][88]. 3.19 Pure Benzene - Pure benzene is in short - term oscillation. The inventory in the East China port has increased, and the price has risen slightly. It is expected to be under pressure in the first quarter of 2026 and may rebound in the second quarter [92][93].

能源化工日报 2025-12-30 2025/12/30 原油 能源化工组 【行情资讯】 张正华 橡胶研究员 从业资格号：F270766 交易咨询号：Z0003000 0755-233753333 zhangzh@wkqh.cn INE 主力原油期货收跌 8.60 元/桶，跌幅 1.94%，报 434.80 元/桶；相关成品油主力期货高硫 燃料油收跌 44.00 元/吨，跌幅 1.76%，报 2459.00 元/吨；低硫燃料油收跌 49.00 元/吨，跌幅 1.62%，报 2974.00 元/吨。 欧洲 ARA 周度数据出炉，汽油库存环比累库 0.94 百万桶至 10.16 百万桶，环比累库 10.14%； 柴油库存环比去库 0.27 百万桶至 14.70 百万桶，环比去库 1.79%；燃料油库存环比累库 0.01 百万桶至 7.21 百万桶，环比累库 0.18%；石脑油环比去库 0.05 百万桶至 4.98 百万桶，环比 去库 1.07%；航空煤油环比累库 0.05 百万桶至 8.84 百万桶，环比累库 0.54%；总体成品油环 比累库 0.67 百万桶至 45.89 百万桶，环比累库 1.49%。 刘洁文 ...

【华宝期货】有色金属周报 华宝期货 2025.12.29 以上内容谨代表个人观点，投资者据此做出的任何投资决策与华宝期货有限公司和作者无关，据此入市交易，风险自负！投资有风险，入市需谨慎！ 目录 01 有色周度行情回顾 02 本周有色行情预判 03 品种数据（锡、碳酸锂） 以上内容谨代表个人观点，投资者据此做出的任何投资决策与华宝期货有限公司和作者无关，据此入市交易，风险自负！投资有风险，入市需谨慎！ 周度行情回顾 锡锭：地缘冲突致锡价偏强运行 Ø 后期关注/市场风险：缅甸复产情况；刚果（金）局势变化。 Ø 逻辑：据海关总署数据显示，中国2025年11月锡矿砂及其精矿进口量15099.34实物吨（折合约5578.04金属吨）同比 下降0.67%，环比增加12.73%。其中从缅甸的进口量为7190.21吨 （折合约1636.05金属吨） 同比增加92.16% ，环比 增加89.94% ；除缅甸外11月从其他国家合计进口量为7909.13吨（折合约3941.99金属吨），同比下降17.29%，环比 下降3.58%。缅甸供应量增加一度对高价锡带来缓解，但刚果（金）局势持续紧张造成锡价居高不下，甚至进一步创新 高。随 ...

作 者：杨江涛 执业证书编号：F03117249 交易咨询编号：Z0022644 联 系 方 式：0371-58620082 本周观点 | 逻辑驱动 | 品种 | 策略及风险提示 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 【现货市场】：电池级碳酸锂现货价格周内上涨16.89%至120400元/吨，市场情绪 | | | | 高涨。但期货价格持续高于现货，基差深度贴水扩大至-10120元/吨（环比增 | | | | 20.48%），显示现货跟涨乏力。 | | | | 【期货市场】：主力合约周度大涨17.16%，收于130520元/吨，连续突破关键整数 | | | | 关口。持仓量周内下降13.72%至577035手，价格在巨幅波动中减仓上行，波动率 | 预计未来1-2周， | | | | 市场在情绪与监 | | | 显著放大。 | 管压力下将转入 | | | 【供应方面】：碳酸锂产能利用率维持83.52%高位，供应端呈现国内高开工与盐 | | | | 湖季节性减产预期并存的结构性矛盾。 | 高位剧烈震荡， | | | | 需警惕快速回调 | | | 【需求方面】：正极材料厂对高价接受度有限，采购偏谨慎， ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows complex trends, with different commodities and financial products having their own characteristics. Some are influenced by supply - demand fundamentals, some by geopolitical factors, and others by macro - economic policies and seasonal factors. The market rhythm switches quickly, and most products are in a state of oscillation, with different potential investment opportunities and risks [2][3][14] - Different industries have different outlooks. For example, some industries like polycrystalline silicon and manganese silicon are expected to have a relatively positive trend, while others such as urea and PVC may face certain challenges in supply - demand balance and price trends [13][18][28] Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals and Base Metals - **Precious Metals**: International gold prices continued a moderate upward trend after the breakthrough, while silver, platinum, and palladium accelerated their rise, with a gain of over 10%. The Fed's easing prospects and geopolitical risks support the strength of precious metals. The spot shortage expectation makes silver, platinum, and palladium more favored by funds, and the gold - silver ratio has dropped significantly below the average. However, exchange restrictions are frequent, and market volatility is extremely high [2] - **Copper**: Copper prices continued to rise strongly last Friday. The Shanghai copper weighted reached a maximum of 102,700 yuan, and it is expected that the London copper will open at $12,700 - $12,800. The market has quickly reached the bullish targets of most overseas institutions for 2026. The target price of the copper market is raised, with the London copper at about $13,100 and the Shanghai copper at about 104,000 yuan [3] - **Aluminum**: The aluminum market's fundamentals are neutral, with poor apparent demand and spot feedback. Shanghai aluminum mainly followed the upward trend, with relatively mild fluctuations. Long - positions should be held with the 40 - day moving average as the support [4] - **Zinc**: In late December, domestic smelter overhauls increased, supporting the adjustment of Shanghai zinc above the annual line. In January, the pressure on the zinc ingot supply side is small, and with the late Spring Festival in 2026 and the expected good start, the consumption side is not pessimistic. Shanghai zinc is expected to oscillate in the range of 22,800 - 23,800 yuan/ton [7] Energy and Chemicals - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil supply is mainly affected by geopolitical factors, with the shipping rhythm in the Middle East and Russia slowing down. The demand side may be boosted by improved refinery profits and the US blockade of Venezuelan oil exports. Singapore's inventory continues to accumulate, and the high - inventory pressure is still significant. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply is dominated by overseas refinery starts. The demand side of ship fuel consumption is continuously weak due to high - sulfur substitution [21] - **Asphalt**: Since December, the weekly shipment volume has remained below 400,000 tons, at a low level in the same period of the past four years. Last week, both social and factory inventories increased. The supply - demand of BU is marginally relaxed, but positive news has a significant boost. However, it will eventually return to the price - pressured pattern dominated by supply - demand relaxation [22] Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Bean Meal**: CBOT soybeans oscillated downward after reopening last Friday, and Dalian soybean meal rose first and then fell. In the future, attention should be paid to the specific export situation of US soybeans and whether the La Nina weather in South America can have a continuous impact [35] - **Cotton**: US cotton rebounded from a low level last week, and the weekly signing data improved, with increased Chinese purchases. Domestic Zhengzhou cotton rose continuously, and the market is bullish. Although this year's new cotton production has increased significantly, the commercial inventory is basically the same as the previous year, and the sales progress is relatively fast [42] Others - **Stock Index**: The previous trading day, the broader market oscillated with heavy volume, and the Shanghai Composite Index recorded an 8 - day consecutive gain. All major futures index contracts closed higher, with IC leading the gain. Industrial profits of large - scale enterprises from January to November showed a growth trend, and the RMB exchange rate broke "7" last week [47] - **Treasury Bonds**: On December 26, 2025, the 30 - year treasury bond futures had the largest increase of 0.36%. In December, the central bank's net MLF injection was 10 billion yuan, a consecutive tenth - month incremental renewal. Against the background of increased counter - cyclical adjustment policies, long - term interest rates have risen significantly recently [48]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 师橙 工业硅：成本支撑稳定，工业硅触底反弹 市场分析 价格：本周工业硅主力合约呈现震荡上行态势，价格从周初 8685 元 / 吨上涨至周末 8800 元 / 吨，累计 涨幅约 2.19%，期间最高达 8940 元 / 吨，最低至 8555 元 / 吨，整体波动幅度控制在 4% 以内，表现相 对稳健。现货方面，本周工业硅现货价格大体稳定，个别规格硅价小幅上涨。截至12月25日，SMM华 东通氧553#硅在9200-9300元/吨，周环比上涨50元/吨，441#硅在9300-9500元/吨，周环比持平。 供应：近期工业硅供应端呈现减量态势，供需双减格局下当前供应仍偏宽松，硅企出货对价格形成上方 压力，而硅煤等原料价格稳定则为价格提供稳固成本支撑。区域方面，西南地区开工低位企稳，停产厂 家虽有库存，但受盘面价格偏低、下游接货能力弱影响，多持观望态度，出货意愿不强；西北地区个别 厂家开工有所增加，虽市场流传减产消息，但暂未出现实质性减产动作，部分前期在高位套保的厂家库 存压力较小，报价坚挺，对价格形成一定支撑，后续需重点关注北方 ...

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 12 月 29 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | ◆国债： | 震荡运行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 短线交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 震荡偏强 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 谨慎持多，轻仓过节 | | ◆铝： | 建议加强观望 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | ◆碳酸锂： | 区间震荡 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 区间交易 | | ◆烧碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆纯碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 区间交易 | | ◆橡胶： | 区间交易 | | ◆尿素： | 区间交易 | | ◆甲醇： | 区间交易 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 偏弱震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡运行 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡运行 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生猪： | 近月逢高滚动空 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Tin Industry - The market sentiment is overly high recently, and there is a risk of a decline. Attention should be paid to the macro - situation and the supply - side recovery [2]. Aluminum Alloy Industry - The strong cost and weak demand make the price of ADC12 have limited upward and downward space. It is expected to continue to fluctuate in a high - level range in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 20800 - 21800 yuan/ton [4]. Aluminum Industry - For alumina, the policy is more sentiment - driven and difficult to reverse the supply - demand fundamentals in the short term. The price is expected to fluctuate widely around the industry cash cost line. It is recommended to wait and see, with the main contract reference range of 2650 - 2950 yuan/ton. For electrolytic aluminum, the market is dominated by the game between strong macro - expectations and weak fundamentals. The price is expected to remain in a high - level wide - range fluctuation in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 21800 - 22800 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc Industry - The short - term zinc price is expected to fluctuate. The support comes from the tight domestic zinc ore supply and low zinc ingot inventory, while the pressure comes from the expected supply of imported ores. Attention should be paid to the import profit and loss, TC inflection point, and refined zinc inventory changes, with the main contract focusing on the 22850 - 22950 support [7]. Copper Industry - The medium - and long - term fundamentals of copper are good, but the short - term price is over - estimated to some extent. In a market with high speculative sentiment and risk preference, the price may remain strong in the short term. It is not advisable to short on the left side before the bullish logic reverses and the price shows a peak signal. Attention should be paid to overseas inventory changes and CL premium changes [10]. Lithium Carbonate Industry - The short - term supply is expected to increase slightly, and the downstream demand maintains a certain resilience. The destocking has slowed down. The price may remain strong in the short term under the support of capital sentiment, but attention should be paid to the risk of regulatory tightening and profit - taking adjustment of funds [14]. Nickel Industry - The expectation of increased nickel ore control in Indonesia drives the recent sentiment to strengthen, but the short - term reality is still weak, and the medium - term fundamentals are loose, which restricts the upward space of the price. The disk is expected to maintain a strong - side fluctuation in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 123000 - 130000 [15]. Stainless Steel Industry - The supply pressure has eased slightly, and the cost support of ore and ferronickel has strengthened, but the demand boost in the off - season is still insufficient. The short - term market sentiment is boosted, but the supply - demand game continues. It is expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 12500 - 13200 [17]. Industrial Silicon Industry - The supply and demand of industrial silicon are both stable with a downward trend, and the expectation of production reduction is further heating up. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, with the main price fluctuation range of 8000 - 9000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the production reduction intensity [20]. Polysilicon Industry - The polysilicon price remains in a high - level shock. In January, under the background of weak demand, there is further production reduction pressure if supply - demand balance is to be achieved. It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to the production reduction situation and price adjustment acceptance [21]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Tin Industry Price and Spread - SMM 1 tin price increased by 0.60%, SMM 1 tin premium increased by 900.00%, etc. The import profit and loss decreased by 13.49%, and the monthly spread of some contracts changed significantly [2]. Fundamental Data - In November, tin ore imports increased by 29.81%, SMM refined tin production decreased by 0.81%, etc. SHEF inventory increased by 4.72%, and social inventory increased by 2.02% [2]. Aluminum Alloy Industry Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price increased by 0.23%, and the refined - scrap price difference of some varieties changed. The monthly spread of some contracts also changed [4]. Fundamental Data - In November, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 5.74%, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 5.84%. The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy increased by 6.93%, and the social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy decreased by 2.06% [4]. Aluminum Industry Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 0.18%, and the prices of alumina in different regions decreased to varying degrees. The import profit and loss of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 44.9 yuan/ton, and the monthly spread of some contracts changed [5]. Fundamental Data - In November, alumina production decreased by 4.44%, domestic electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 2.82%, etc. The operating rate of some aluminum products decreased, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased by 6.75% [5]. Zinc Industry Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.52%, the import profit and loss decreased by 177.63 yuan/ton, and the monthly spread of some contracts changed [7]. Fundamental Data - In November, refined zinc production decreased by 3.56%, refined zinc exports increased by 402.59%. The operating rates of galvanizing, die - casting zinc alloy, and zinc oxide increased, and the seven - place social inventory of zinc ingots decreased by 6.14% [7]. Copper Industry Price and Spread - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 3.14%, the refined - scrap price difference increased by 6.95%, the import profit and loss decreased by 129.00 yuan/ton, and the monthly spread of some contracts changed [10]. Fundamental Data - In November, electrolytic copper production increased by 1.05%, and imports decreased by 3.90%. The operating rates of electrolytic copper rod and recycled copper rod decreased, and the domestic social inventory increased by 16.77% [10]. Lithium Carbonate Industry Price and Spread - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 6.67%, and the monthly spread of some contracts changed [14]. Fundamental Data - In November, lithium carbonate production increased by 3.35%, demand increased by 5.11%, imports decreased by 7.64%, and exports increased by 208.75%. The total inventory decreased by 23.36% [14]. Nickel Industry Price and Spread - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 1.81%, the futures import profit and loss increased by 83.57%, and the monthly spread of some contracts changed [15]. Fundamental Data - In November, China's refined nickel production decreased by 9.38%, and imports decreased by 65.66%. SHFE inventory decreased by 1.82%, and social inventory decreased by 1.43% [15]. Stainless Steel Industry Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased by 0.38%, and the monthly spread of some contracts changed [17]. Fundamental Data - In November, the production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China decreased by 0.72%, and exports increased by 13.18%. The social inventory of 300 - series decreased by 1.43% [17]. Industrial Silicon Industry Price and Spread - The price of East China oxygen - containing SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged, and the monthly spread of some contracts changed [20]. Fundamental Data - In November, the national industrial silicon production decreased by 11.17%, the organic silicon DMC production increased by 3.82%, and the export volume increased by 21.78%. The Xinjiang inventory increased by 2.33%, and the social inventory increased by 0.36% [20]. Polysilicon Industry Price and Spread - The average price of N - type re - feed increased by 0.10%, and the monthly spread of some contracts changed significantly [21]. Fundamental Data - In November, polysilicon production decreased by 14.48%, imports decreased by 27.05%, and exports increased by 108.68%. The polysilicon inventory increased by 3.41%, and the silicon wafer inventory increased by 0.88% [21].

能源化工日报 2025-12-29 原油 2025/12/29 原油 【行情资讯】 能源化工组 张正华 橡胶研究员 从业资格号：F270766 交易咨询号：Z0003000 0755-233753333 zhangzh@wkqh.cn INE 主力原油期货收跌 1.20 元/桶，跌幅 0.27%，报 441.80 元/桶；相关成品油主力期货高硫 燃料油收涨 18.00 元/吨，涨幅 0.73%，报 2491.00 元/吨；低硫燃料油收涨 5.00 元/吨，涨幅 0.17%，报 3017.00 元/吨。 新加坡 ESG 油品周度数据出炉，汽油库存累库 0.06 百万桶至 15.06 百万桶，环比累库 0.43%； 柴油库存累库 0.07 百万桶至 8.43 百万桶，环比累库 0.85%；燃料油库存去库 1.40 百万桶至 24.66 百万桶，环比去库 5.39%；总成品油去库 1.27 百万桶至 48.15 百万桶，环比去库 2.57%。 【策略观点】 我们认为尽管地缘溢价已经全部消散，OPEC 虽做增产但量级极低，与此同时我们观测到 OPEC 供给仍未放量，因而油价短期仍然不宜过于看空。基于此我们维持对油价低 ...