【现货消息】 春节期间，烧碱现货无变化，液氯仍维持补贴。 期货研究 烧碱：成本支撑，震荡为主 陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 chenjiaxin2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 烧碱基本面数据 05合约期货价格 山东最便宜可交割 现货32碱价格 山东现货32碱折盘面 基差 2243 640 2000 -243 2026 年 2 月 24 日 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货 【市场状况分析】 期货研究 春节期间，液氯维持弱势，山东液氯价格维持补贴，对烧碱价格产生支撑。春节后，烧碱高库存情况下， 短期大幅上涨空间或有限。考虑到节后仅 4 个交易日就进入 03 合约交割，目前烧碱仓单 895 手，交割压力 仍较大。市场或先交易交割压力，之后再考虑未来减产预期，下游需求环比改善等。 从基本面看，氧化铝随着产能减产，供需结构逐渐逆转，关注后期大规模产能投产带来的增量需求。非 铝下游季节性淡季，3 月份刚需将持续回升，出口保持坚挺，美国价格偏高，欧洲转向亚洲采购烧碱。供应 端看，山东现货价格已贴近现金流成本，3 月份之后减产和降负预期增强。 整体看，液氯持续补贴导 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core Views - **螺纹钢**: The main contract price fluctuated and recorded a daily increase of 0.13%. The pre - holiday situation of weak supply and demand remained unchanged. The fundamental contradictions of rebar continued to accumulate, inventory increased significantly, and steel prices continued to be under pressure. The positive factors were policy expectations and cost support. It was expected to continue the weak bottom - seeking trend. Attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation during the holiday and the resumption rhythm of short - process steel mills after the holiday [5]. - **热轧卷板**: The main contract price fluctuated and recorded a daily decline of 0%. The supply pressure of hot - rolled coils did not subside, while demand continued to weaken seasonally. The fundamentals were weak, and prices continued to be under pressure. The positive factor was the post - holiday policy expectation. It was expected to continue the weak and volatile operation. Attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation during the holiday and the demand recovery after the holiday [5]. - **铁矿石**: The main contract price declined weakly, recording a daily decline of 2.36%. Currently, iron ore demand improved, while supply contracted in the short term. The fundamentals of ore changed, but the sustainability of the improvement was questionable. Under the weak reality, ore prices continued to decline under pressure. Attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation of finished products during the holiday and the shipping situation of mines [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Real Estate**: In January, the month - on - month decline in the sales prices of new commercial residential buildings in first - tier cities was 0.3%, the same as last month; the decline in second - tier cities was 0.3%, narrowing by 0.1 percentage points; the decline in third - tier cities was 0.4%, the same as last month. The month - on - month decline in second - hand residential sales prices in first - tier cities was 0.5%, narrowing by 0.4 percentage points; the declines in second - and third - tier cities were 0.5% and 0.6% respectively, narrowing by 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points [7]. - **Shipbuilding**: Hengli Shipbuilding (Dalian) Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co., Ltd., signed contracts for 17 ships, with a contract value of approximately 1.6 - 1.8 billion US dollars (about 11.041 - 12.421 billion RMB) [8]. - **Steel**: Fujian Province announced the list of restricted smelting equipment of steel enterprises subject to differential electricity prices in 2026 [9]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Steel Products**: The national average prices of rebar (HRB400E, 20mm) and hot - rolled coils (4.75mm) were 3,304 yuan and 3,279 yuan respectively. The price of Tangshan billets was 2,900 yuan, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,160 yuan. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar was 50 yuan, and the spread between rebar and scrap was 1,030 yuan [10]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of PB powder at Shandong ports was 746 yuan, and the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 767 yuan. The sea freight from Australia and Brazil was 8.81 yuan and 23.39 yuan respectively. The SGX swap price was 100.05, and the iron ore price index (61% FE, CFR) was 99.60 [10]. 3.3 Futures Market | Variety | Closing Price | Change (%) | Volume | Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | 3,055 | 0.13 | 555,957 | 1,942,442 | | Hot - Rolled Coils | 3,222 | 0.00 | 277,887 | 1,482,223 | | Iron Ore | 746.0 | - 2.36 | 239,453 | 494,550 | [12] 3.4 Related Charts - **Steel Inventory**: The report presented the weekly changes and total inventory (steel mills + social inventory) of rebar and hot - rolled coils [14][15][20]. - **Iron Ore Inventory**: It showed the inventory of 45 ports, 247 steel mills, and domestic mines, including inventory and its seasonal changes and month - on - month changes [24][25][26]. - **Steel Mill Production**: The report included the blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, profitability ratio of 247 steel mills, and the operating rate and profitability of 94 independent electric - arc furnace steel mills [29][31][33]. 3.5 Market Outlook - **螺纹钢**: Supply and demand continued to weaken, inventory increased significantly, and short - process steel mills significantly reduced production. The weekly output of rebar decreased by 22.52 tons. Demand was also weak, and the high - frequency demand index was at the lowest level in the same lunar calendar period in recent years. It was expected to continue the weak bottom - seeking trend [37]. - **热轧卷板**: Supply and demand continued to weaken seasonally, inventory increased, and the weekly output of hot - rolled coils decreased by 1.40 tons. Demand continued to weaken, and the weekly apparent consumption decreased by 9.35 tons. It was expected to continue the weak and volatile operation [38]. - **铁矿石**: The supply - demand pattern changed. Steel mills resumed production before the holiday, and ore terminal consumption continued to rise. However, steel mill profitability was poor, and the increase in ore demand was limited. Overseas supply contracted in the short term, but the sustainability was weak. Ore prices continued to decline under pressure [39].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the nickel market, due to continuous fermentation of the Indonesian nickel mine event, nickel prices are in high - level oscillations. Near the Spring Festival, prices are expected to fluctuate, and interval operations are recommended. If the price drops significantly, consider buying on dips [2][3][4] - For the stainless - steel market, influenced by the cost support from nickel and factors such as pre - holiday capital withdrawal and stagnant spot trading, prices are also expected to fluctuate near the Spring Festival. Interval operations are recommended, and buying on dips can be considered when the price drops substantially [4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On February 12, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2601 opened at 139,960 yuan/ton and closed at 139,610 yuan/ton, a change of 1.79% from the previous trading day's closing. The trading volume was 433,838 (-84,787) lots, and the open interest was 70,629 (-5,811) lots. The main contract of Shanghai nickel rose with a reduction in positions and closed up. Driven by the significant reduction of the Indonesian nickel mine quota policy, the price rebounded strongly, but near the Spring Festival, funds and trading were cautious. On February 11, the Indonesian government planned to significantly cut the production quota of the world's largest nickel mine, Weda Bay Nickel. Its ore production quota this year dropped from 42 million tons to 12 million tons, a decrease of up to 71%, far exceeding market expectations [2] - **Nickel Mines**: The RKAB quota of Indonesian nickel mines in 2026 is between 260 million and 270 million tons. With a large - scale mine's quota reduced by over 70%, the premium of Indonesian nickel mines continued to rise, driving up the nickel - iron quotation. The supply of nickel mines was tight, and the premium of some large - island Indonesian nickel mines rose to 32 - 35 US dollars/wet ton, strongly supporting the bottom price of nickel - iron. In January, the nickel - iron production in Indonesia decreased significantly due to raw - material shortages and pre - holiday centralized maintenance of some projects. It is expected that the production will continue to decline in February. Currently, the quotes of high - nickel pig iron from suppliers are mainly concentrated around 1,060 - 1,070 yuan/nickel (including tax at the hatch bottom), and the market quotes tend to rise [3] - **Spot**: The sales price of Jinchuan Group in the Shanghai market was 149,800 yuan/ton, a rise of 3,100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot market basically entered the vacation state, and spot transactions were suspended. The spot premiums and discounts of various refined - nickel brands mostly remained stable. Among them, the premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by - 750 yuan/ton to 8,750 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by 0 yuan/ton to - 50 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 52,027 (0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 286,386 (636) tons [3] Strategy - Near the Spring Festival holiday, prices are expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to conduct interval operations. However, due to the continuous fermentation of nickel - ore supply interference, there is a certain support at the cost end. If the price drops significantly, consider buying on dips. Unilateral: mainly conduct interval operations; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Futures - spot: None; Options: None [4] Stainless - Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On February 12, 2026, the main contract of stainless steel 2604 opened at 14,190 yuan/ton and closed at 13,970 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 115,890 (+3,307) lots, and the open interest was 100,602 (-4,171) lots. The main contract of stainless steel opened high and closed low, fluctuating and closing down. Supported by the cost of Shanghai nickel but suppressed by pre - holiday capital withdrawal and stagnant spot trading, its overall performance was weaker than that of Shanghai nickel. Near the Spring Festival, downstream processing enterprises basically stopped work, spot - market transactions were suspended, and traders gradually took holidays. Stainless - steel social inventories entered the seasonal accumulation stage, and supply pressure gradually emerged [4][5] - **Spot**: Spot trading was basically suspended, and market quotes remained stable. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 14,100 (+0) yuan/ton, and that in the Foshan market was 14,050 (+0) yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B were 90 to 290 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 8.50 yuan/nickel point to 1,051.5 yuan/nickel point [5] Strategy - Near the Spring Festival holiday, prices are expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to conduct interval operations. However, due to the continuous fermentation of nickel - ore supply interference, there is a certain support at the cost end. If the price drops significantly, consider buying on dips. Unilateral: mainly conduct interval operations; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Futures - spot: None; Options: None [5] Figures - There are 14 figures in the report, including LME closing price and spot price, Shanghai nickel main - contract closing price and SMM spot price, refined - nickel import profit and loss, Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts, LME nickel registered warehouse receipts, SMM nickel six - region total inventory, red - soil nickel - ore mainstream quotes, Chinese mainstream nickel - iron prices, Chinese mainstream imported chrome - ore prices, main - producing - area high - carbon ferrochrome prices, Foshan stainless - steel coil prices, 304/2B cold - rolled stainless - steel coil prices, 304 stainless - steel mainstream production profit margins, and stainless - steel total inventory. The data sources mainly include SMM and Mysteel [6][7][8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report Industrial Silicon - Supply decreased last week with a 13.41% week - on - week reduction to 71,000 tons; demand also decreased by 20.00% week - on - week to 60,000 tons, remaining sluggish. - Polycrystalline silicon inventory is at a high level of 349,000 tons; organic silicon inventory is at a low level of 47,200 tons with a production profit of 2,570 yuan/ton and a comprehensive开工率 of 64.02%, flat week - on - week and below the historical average. - Aluminum alloy ingot inventory is at a high level of 67,400 tons. - In Xinjiang, the production cost of sample oxygen - passed 553 silicon decreased by 0.00% week - on - week to 9,769.7 yuan/ton, and the cost support is rising during the dry season. - On February 12th, the spot price of non - oxygen - passed silicon in East China was 9,200 yuan/ton, with a basis of 865 yuan/ton for the 05 contract, indicating a spot premium over the futures. - Social inventory increased by 1.44% week - on - week to 562,000 tons; sample enterprise inventory decreased by 2.52% week - on - week to 200,800 tons; main port inventory decreased by 1.44% week - on - week to 136,000 tons. - The MA20 is downward, and the 05 contract price closed below the MA20. - The main position is net short, with a decrease in short positions. - It is expected that industrial silicon 2605 will fluctuate in the range of 8,240 - 8,430 [6]. Polycrystalline Silicon - Supply remained flat last week, with a production of 20,100 tons. The scheduled production for February is expected to be 79,700 tons, a 20.93% decrease compared to the previous month. - Demand is in a continuous decline. The production of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components is all decreasing. - The average cost of N - type polycrystalline silicon materials is 40,830 yuan/ton, with a production profit of 11,420 yuan/ton. - On February 12th, the price of N - type dense materials was 52,250 yuan/ton, with a basis of 4,235 yuan/ton for the 05 contract, indicating a spot premium over the futures. - Weekly inventory is at a historical high of 349,000 tons, increasing by 2.34% week - on - week. - The MA20 is upward, and the 05 contract price closed below the MA20. - The main position is net long, with a decrease in long positions. - It is expected that polycrystalline silicon 2605 will fluctuate in the range of 47,940 - 50,090 [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views Industrial Silicon - Bullish factors: Rising cost support and manufacturers' plans for production cuts. - Bearish factors: Slow recovery of post - holiday demand and a supply - strong and demand - weak situation in the downstream polycrystalline silicon market. - Main logic: Capacity clearance, cost support, and demand increment [11][12]. Polycrystalline Silicon - Supply is expected to continue to decrease, and demand is in a continuous recession. Cost support remains stable [8]. 3.2 Fundamental/Positioning Data Industrial Silicon - **Supply - side**: Last week's supply was 71,000 tons, with a 13.41% week - on - week decrease. - **Demand - side**: Last week's demand was 60,000 tons, with a 20.00% week - on - week decrease. - **Inventory**: Social inventory increased by 1.44% week - on - week to 562,000 tons; sample enterprise inventory decreased by 2.52% week - on - week to 200,800 tons; main port inventory decreased by 1.44% week - on - week to 136,000 tons. - **Cost**: In Xinjiang, the production cost of sample oxygen - passed 553 silicon decreased by 0.00% week - on - week to 9,769.7 yuan/ton. - **Basis**: On February 12th, the basis of the 05 contract was 865 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. - **Positioning**: The main position is net short, with a decrease in short positions [6]. Polycrystalline Silicon - **Supply - side**: Last week's production was 20,100 tons, remaining flat week - on - week. The scheduled production for February is 79,700 tons, a 20.93% decrease compared to the previous month. - **Demand - side**: The production of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components is all decreasing. - **Inventory**: Weekly inventory is 349,000 tons, increasing by 2.34% week - on - week, at a historical high. - **Cost**: The average cost of N - type polycrystalline silicon materials is 40,830 yuan/ton, with a production profit of 11,420 yuan/ton. - **Basis**: On February 12th, the basis of the 05 contract was 4,235 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. - **Positioning**: The main position is net long, with a decrease in long positions [8]. 3.3 Market Overview Industrial Silicon - Futures prices of most contracts decreased slightly. For example, the 01 contract decreased by 1.27% to 8,930 yuan/ton. - Spot prices of various types of silicon remained stable, such as the price of non - oxygen - passed 553 silicon in East China at 9,200 yuan/ton. - Inventory data showed a mixed trend, with social inventory increasing and sample enterprise inventory and main port inventory decreasing [15]. Polycrystalline Silicon - Futures prices of most contracts were relatively stable, with only a few showing small declines. - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained stable. - Weekly silicon wafer production increased by 5.74% to 12.9 GW, and weekly silicon wafer inventory decreased by 22.06% to 26.5 GW. - Weekly battery cell inventory increased by 1.53% to 9.31 GW. - Monthly component production decreased by 9.04% to 35.2 GW, domestic inventory decreased by 51.73% to 24.76 GW, and European inventory increased by 9.27% to 34.2 GW [17]. 3.4 Other Aspects - The report also includes various trend charts and data on industrial silicon and polycrystalline silicon, such as price - basis and delivery product spread trends, inventory trends, production and capacity utilization trends, cost trends, and downstream industry trends (including organic silicon, aluminum alloy, and polycrystalline silicon downstream industries) [19][22][25]

Group 1: Report Industrial Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view on rebar 2605 is bias towards a weak oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the intraday view is also bias towards a weak oscillation. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line. The core logic is that industrial contradictions are accumulating, and steel prices are under pressure [2]. - Before the Spring Festival, the supply and demand of rebar both weakened. Short - process steel mills significantly reduced production, and rebar output decreased significantly, slightly lower than the same period last lunar year. However, inventory was relatively high, so the positive effect on the supply side was limited. The demand for rebar also weakened, with high - frequency demand indicators declining and remaining at the lowest level in recent lunar years. Weak demand continued to drag down steel prices. The relative positives are the expected post - festival policy enhancement and cost support. The steel price is expected to continue the weak bottom - seeking trend, and attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation during the holiday [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2605, the short - term is "oscillation, weak", the medium - term is "oscillation", and the intraday is "oscillation, weak". The view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line, and the core logic is the accumulation of industrial contradictions and the pressure on steel prices [2]. Market Driving Logic - Before the Spring Festival, the supply and demand of rebar both weakened. Short - process steel mills cut production, output decreased, inventory was relatively high, and demand was weak. The steel price was under pressure, but there were positive factors such as policy expectations and cost support. It is expected to continue the weak bottom - seeking trend, and attention should be paid to inventory accumulation during the holiday [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PE market shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. Although the cost - side is supported by rising oil prices, the overall fundamentals are weak. The market is expected to fluctuate in a range, and attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation and post - holiday inventory levels [1][3] - The PP market also has a weak supply - demand structure. Cost - side support exists, but demand is expected to decline seasonally during the Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to inventory accumulation and macro - level guidance [4] - The recommended trading strategies are to wait and see for single - side trading, no operation for inter - period trading, and to cautiously shrink the L - PP spread when it is high [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 6,787 yuan/ton (+12), and that of the PP main contract is 6,693 yuan/ton (+5). LL North China spot is 6,550 yuan/ton (+0), LL East China spot is 6,700 yuan/ton (+0), and PP East China spot is 6,680 yuan/ton (+0). LL North China basis is - 237 yuan/ton (-12), LL East China basis is - 87 yuan/ton (-12), and PP East China basis is - 13 yuan/ton (-5) [1] - **Upstream Supply**: The PE operating rate is 85.9% (+0.6%), and the PP operating rate is 73.9% (-0.9%) [1] - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit is - 165.2 yuan/ton (+27.0), PP oil - based production profit is - 425.2 yuan/ton (+27.0), and PDH - based PP production profit is - 517.0 yuan/ton (-54.4) [1] - **Imports and Exports**: LL import profit is - 106.7 yuan/ton (+11.4), PP import profit is - 251.5 yuan/ton (+53.3), and PP export profit is - 64.1 US dollars/ton (-1.5) [1] - **Downstream Demand**: The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 30.2% (-4.4%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 38.8% (-3.3%), the PP downstream woven plastic operating rate is 27.9% (-8.9%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 64.6% (+0.4%) [2] 3.2 Market Analysis - **PE Market**: The macro - sentiment is generally weakening. The plastic market fluctuates in a range. The cost - side support is strengthened by rising oil prices. The supply is under pressure due to more restarted devices and more imported resources, while the demand remains weak in the off - season, leading to inventory accumulation pressure in the upper and middle reaches [3] - **PP Market**: The cost - side support exists, but the supply increase is limited due to some device overhauls. The demand is expected to decline seasonally during the Spring Festival, and the overall supply - demand structure is weak. Attention should be paid to inventory accumulation and macro - level guidance [4] 3.3 Strategy - **Single - side**: Wait and see, as the rising oil prices and raw material propane provide cost support, and the short - term market is expected to fluctuate widely following the cost and macro - sentiment [5] - **Inter - period**: No operation [5] - **Inter - variety**: Cautiously shrink the L - PP spread when it is high [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report Industrial Silicon - The supply of industrial silicon last week was 71,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 13.41%. Demand was 60,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 20%. Demand remained sluggish. The cost support increased during the dry season. The 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,275 - 8,465 [6]. - The overall fundamental situation is bearish, but there are positive factors such as rising cost support and manufacturers' plans to stop or reduce production. Negative factors include the slow recovery of demand after the holiday and the strong supply and weak demand of downstream polysilicon [13][14]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon production last week was 20,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.49%. The scheduled production in February is expected to be 79,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20.93%. The overall demand shows a continuous decline. The cost support remains stable. The 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 48,075 - 50,285 [8][11]. - The fundamental situation is bearish, but there are positive factors such as the net long position of the main contract (with a decrease in long positions) and the spot price premium over the futures price [10][11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: Last week's supply was 71,000 tons, down 13.41% week - on - week [6]. - **Demand**: Last week's demand was 60,000 tons, down 20% week - on - week. The inventory and profit status of downstream products vary: polysilicon inventory is at a neutral level; organic silicon inventory is at a low level with a production profit of 2,570 yuan/ton and a comprehensive operating rate of 64.02%, flat week - on - week and lower than the historical average; aluminum alloy ingot inventory is at a high level [6]. - **Cost**: The production cost of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang is 9,769.7 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. Cost support has increased during the dry season [6]. - **Basis**: On February 11, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9,200 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 830 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price [6]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory was 562,000 tons, up 1.44% week - on - week; sample enterprise inventory was 206,000 tons, down 1.43% week - on - week; major port inventory was 136,000 tons, down 1.44% week - on - week [6]. - **Market**: The MA20 is downward, and the price of the 05 contract closed below the MA20 [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, with an increase in short positions [6]. - **Expectation**: Supply scheduling has decreased and remains at a low level. Demand recovery is emerging. Cost support is rising. The 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,275 - 8,465 [6]. Polysilicon - **Supply**: Last week's production was 20,100 tons, down 0.49% week - on - week. The scheduled production in February is 79,700 tons, down 20.93% month - on - month [8]. - **Demand**: Last week's silicon wafer production was 10.38GW, down 11.65% week - on - week, with an inventory of 283,200 tons, up 3.77% week - on - week, and the production is currently in a loss state. The production of battery cells and components also shows a downward trend, but battery cells and components are currently in a profitable state [9]. - **Cost**: The average production cost of N - type polysilicon is 40,830 yuan/ton, with a production profit of 11,920 yuan/ton [9]. - **Basis**: On February 11, the price of N - type dense material was 52,750 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 4,470 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price [11]. - **Inventory**: Weekly inventory was 341,000 tons, up 2.40% week - on - week, at a neutral level compared to the historical average [11]. - **Market**: The MA20 is upward, and the price of the 05 contract closed below the MA20 [11]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net long, with a decrease in long positions [10]. - **Expectation**: Supply scheduling continues to decrease, and overall demand shows a continuous decline. Cost support remains stable. The 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 48,075 - 50,285 [11]. 3.2 Market Overview Industrial Silicon - The report provides the price, change, and inventory data of various industrial silicon contracts and spot products, including different grades of silicon in East China, contract prices from 01 to 12, and various inventory data such as social inventory, sample enterprise inventory, and major port inventory [17]. Polysilicon - It presents the price, change, and inventory data of polysilicon contracts, as well as the price, production, and inventory data of downstream products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [19]. 3.3 Other Aspects - The report also includes multiple charts and data on the price, production, inventory, and cost of industrial silicon and its downstream products (organic silicon, aluminum alloy, polysilicon, etc.). These charts show the historical trends and current situations of various indicators, providing a comprehensive reference for analyzing the market situation of industrial silicon and related industries [21][24][27] etc.

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report The weakening of the hawkish expectations trading on Wash has led to an upward trend in the prices of basic metals. Although the macro - outlook has improved, it is still unclear. The raw material supply remains tight, and there are still potential disturbances in the smelting process, providing strong support on the supply side. The terminal demand is weak currently, but there is an expectation of tightened supply - demand balance in the medium term. Overall, copper, aluminum, tin and other metals are expected to maintain a moderately strong oscillatory trend [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Outlook - **Copper**: High inventory levels will keep copper prices oscillating at a high level. The supply of copper ore is tight, and the expected reduction in refined copper supply is increasing. However, weak demand and high inventory limit the upward potential of copper prices. In the long - term, copper prices are expected to be moderately strong [6]. - **Alumina**: The expectation of production cuts is pitted against the reality of oversupply, causing alumina prices to oscillate. The average spot price has dropped, and the high - cost inland production capacity is facing losses, increasing the expectation of supply reduction. But the actual supply reduction is insufficient, and the cost is also decreasing [7]. - **Aluminum**: The repeated sentiment of funds causes aluminum prices to fluctuate within a narrow range. The macro - outlook is expected to be positive, but the current demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating. In the medium - term, the supply is expected to be tight, and the price center is likely to rise [8][9]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: Cost support persists, and prices will oscillate. The cost of scrap aluminum is high, and the supply is tight. Although the demand is affected by high prices, the cost support and the expected supply - demand balance will keep prices moderately strong [10]. - **Zinc**: The significant accumulation of social inventory will keep zinc prices oscillating. The macro - outlook has improved, but the supply pressure has increased, and the demand is in the off - season. In the long - term, zinc prices are expected to decline [11]. - **Lead**: Solid cost support will keep lead prices oscillating. The production of lead ingots has decreased slightly, and the demand is weakening, but the high cost of waste batteries provides support [14]. - **Nickel**: The release of Indonesia's 2026 nickel ore quota has pushed nickel prices higher. The supply pressure is high, and the demand is in the off - season. However, the adjustment of Indonesia's policy on nickel ore has supported nickel prices, and it is expected to be moderately strong [15][16]. - **Stainless Steel**: The rise in nickel prices has led to an upward - oscillating trend in the stainless - steel market. The cost is supported, but the production is expected to decline in February due to the Spring Festival, and the demand is weak. Overall, it is expected to be moderately strong [17]. - **Tin**: The continuous supply contraction provides strong support for tin prices. The supply in some regions is still restricted, and the demand in semiconductor, photovoltaic and new - energy vehicle industries is increasing, so tin prices are expected to be moderately strong [19]. 2. Market Monitoring - **Commodity Index**: On February 11, 2026, the comprehensive index, the commodity 20 index, and the industrial product index of CITICS Futures all showed an upward trend, with increases of 0.32%, 0.27%, and 0.41% respectively. The non - ferrous metal index increased by 0.24% on the day, decreased by 0.08% in the past 5 days, decreased by 5.51% in the past month, and increased by 0.32% since the beginning of the year [147][148].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall macro - sentiment has weakened, and the plastics market is oscillating. The uncertainty of the US - Iran negotiations and the resurgence of geopolitical risk premiums may support oil prices, strengthening the cost support for plastics. The supply of PE is under pressure with high - level开工率 and more imported resources, while the demand is in the off - season. PP's supply pressure is currently acceptable, but the demand is expected to decline seasonally [3][4]. - The current supply - demand structure of PP is still weak, and the cost side fluctuates sharply. For both PE and PP, it is necessary to pay attention to the geopolitical situation and the inventory accumulation amplitude after the Spring Festival [3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L main contract closed at 6,775 yuan/ton (+54), PP main contract at 6,688 yuan/ton (+58). LL North China spot was 6,550 yuan/ton (-70), LL East China spot 6,700 yuan/ton (+0), PP East China spot 6,680 yuan/ton (+0). LL North China basis was - 225 yuan/ton (-124), LL East China basis - 75 yuan/ton (-54), PP East China basis - 8 yuan/ton (-58) [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: PE开工率 was 85.9% (+0.6%), PP开工率 73.9% (-0.9%) [1]. - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit was - 192.2 yuan/ton (-110.8), PP oil - based production profit - 452.2 yuan/ton (-110.8), PDH - based PP production profit - 462.7 yuan/ton (+22.5) [1]. - **Imports and Exports**: LL import profit was - 118.1 yuan/ton (-34.0), PP import profit - 304.7 yuan/ton (+58.1), PP export profit - 62.5 US dollars/ton (-2.1) [1]. - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film开工率 was 30.2% (-4.4%), PE downstream packaging film开工率 38.8% (-3.3%), PP downstream plastic weaving开工率 36.7% (-5.3%), PP downstream BOPP film开工率 64.6% (+0.4%) [2]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **PE**: The plastics market oscillates due to weakened macro - sentiment and weak fundamentals. The cost support is strengthened by rising oil prices. The supply side has pressure with more restarted devices and more imported resources. The demand side is in the off - season with declining downstream开工率. The inventory of the upper and middle reaches is under pressure [3]. - **PP**: There is still short - term cost support. The supply pressure is currently acceptable with some device overhauls. The demand is expected to decline seasonally, and the overall supply - demand structure is weak [4]. 3.3 Strategy - **Single - side**: Wait and see, as the short - term market will oscillate widely following the cost and macro - sentiment [5]. - **Inter - period**: No strategy provided [5]. - **Cross - variety**: Cautiously short the L - PP price spread when it is high [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is in a clear off - season pattern, with steel prices fluctuating weakly. Glass and soda ash markets also show a weakening trend due to shrinking downstream demand. The double - silicon market in the black sector is in a state of consolidation [1][3] - The glass market has an increasing expectation of production line cold - repair in the Shahe area, which provides some support to the market. The soda ash supply pressure is increasing with new projects, and the downstream consumption is seasonally declining [1] - The fundamentals of silicon manganese have improved slightly, but the inventory pressure is still high. The fundamentals of silicon iron are controllable, and the demand is expected to improve marginally [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Market Analysis - Glass: The main glass contract fluctuated weakly yesterday, and the trading volume decreased approaching the Spring Festival. The spot price was stable, and downstream enterprises mainly made purchases based on rigid demand [1] - Soda Ash: The main soda ash contract continued to show a weakening trend, and the market sentiment was cautious. In the traditional off - season, the spot market mainly had transactions based on rigid demand [1] Supply - Demand and Logic - Glass: There is a strong expectation of production line cold - repair in the Shahe area, which supports the market. However, the fundamental contradictions have not been effectively resolved, and attention should be paid to cold - repair progress, terminal demand recovery, and coal price impact on costs [1] - Soda Ash: The current production of soda ash is high, and the supply pressure is increasing with new projects. Downstream consumption is seasonally declining, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is high, and the de - stocking process is slow. Attention should be paid to new project situations [1] Strategy - Glass: Expected to fluctuate [2] - Soda Ash: Expected to fluctuate weakly [2] Double - Silicon (Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron) Market Analysis - Silicon Manganese: The silicon manganese futures weakened yesterday, and the spot market was filled with a festive atmosphere. The price of 6517 in the northern market was 5580 - 5680 yuan/ton, and in the southern market was 5700 - 5750 yuan/ton [3] - Silicon Iron: The silicon iron futures fluctuated downward, the market was weak, and the sentiment of cautious waiting and seeing was strong. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade silicon iron in the main production area was 5250 - 5350 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade silicon iron was 5850 - 6000 yuan/ton [3] Supply - Demand and Logic - Silicon Manganese: The fundamentals have improved, and the demand is expected to increase marginally. However, the inventory pressure is still high, and the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose. The South African tariff policy may increase the manganese ore cost, and attention should be paid to cost support and inventory changes [3] - Silicon Iron: The fundamental contradictions are controllable, and enterprises have actively reduced production loads. Considering the resumption of steel mills, the demand is expected to improve marginally. The overall over - capacity suppresses the price increase, and attention should be paid to the de - stocking situation and power price policies in production areas [3] Strategy - Both silicon manganese and silicon iron are expected to fluctuate [4]