Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoint - The report suggests paying attention to the central bank's attitude. Considering the limited potential for a weak rebound, some long positions can be taken profit [1][2] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Review - On Monday, bond futures continued to rebound, with all contracts closing higher and long - term varieties seeing larger gains. There were 28 billion yuan in open - market reverse repurchases and 60 billion yuan in outright reverse repurchases, resulting in a net injection of 56.85 billion yuan. The funding situation was tight, and the DR001 rate rose to 1.41% [1] 2. Intraday News - Trump expects the Fed to "significantly cut interest rates" this week [2] - In August, fixed - asset investment increased by 0.5% year - on - year cumulatively, real estate development investment decreased by 12.9% year - on - year cumulatively, industrial added value of enterprises above designated size increased by 5.2% year - on - year, and total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.4% year - on - year [2] 3. Market Analysis and Judgment - Although some A - share indices reached new highs today, the bond market basically shook off the influence of the stock market. The economic data announced in the morning showed that investment and consumption continued to slow down, and the boosting effect of the "two new" policies weakened. The real estate market is still bottom - seeking, and the decline in sales and new construction has not converged. The fundamentals determine that there is a ceiling for interest rates, but the current market trading sentiment is still weak, and long - term interest rates rose again after the futures market closed. In addition, the funding situation has tightened again due to the tax period, and attention should be paid to the central bank's injection intensity in the next few days [2] 4. Daily Data of Treasury Bond Futures - **Price Changes**: The prices of TS2512, TF2512, T2512, and TL2512 on September 15, 2025, were 102.368, 105.66, 107.84, and 115.48 respectively, with daily increases of 0.004, 0.08, 0.16, and 0.32 compared to September 12, 2025 [3] - **Position Changes**: The positions of TS, TF, T, and TL contracts on September 15, 2025, were 72,691, 135,920, 236,190, and 162,580 hands respectively, with changes of + 1,775, - 843, + 4,644, and + 1,932 hands compared to September 12, 2025 [3] - **Basis Changes**: The bases (CTD) of TS, TF, T, and TL contracts on September 15, 2025, were - 0.0291, 0.0708, 0.4266, and 0.554 respectively, with changes of 0.0239, 0.0307, 0.0473, and 0.2482 compared to September 12, 2025 [3] - **Trading Volume Changes**: The trading volumes of TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts on September 15, 2025, were 24,122, 54,025, 94,600, and 111,024 hands respectively, with decreases of 10,117, 17,431, 9,200, and 39,156 hands compared to September 12, 2025 [3] 5. Graphical Data - The report also includes graphical data on the basis and IRR of T, TL, TF, and TS main contracts, long - term and ultra - long - term bond interest rate trends, deposit - type institution financing interest rates and policy interest rates, exchange financing interest rates, fund stratification, US Treasury bond yield trends, and US - China interest rate differentials and RMB exchange rates [4][8][14]

Market Overview - A-share market trading activity has decreased, with a slight decline in transaction volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets, indicating that incremental capital has not yet formed a consistent expectation in the short term, leading to a wide fluctuation in the market [1][4] - The overall A-share market is experiencing significant fluctuations, with notable sector rotation. Benefiting from interest rate cut expectations and "anti-involution" policies, sectors such as electric power equipment and non-ferrous metals have seen substantial gains, while previously high-performing sectors like computers and communications have shown weakness [1] Economic Indicators - In August, China's exports increased by 4.4% year-on-year in USD terms, below the expected 5.9% and previous value of 7.2%. Imports grew by 1.3%, also below expectations [1] - The decline in exports to the US has intensified, with a drop of 33.1% in August, negatively impacting total exports by 5.1 percentage points, while exports to the EU and ASEAN exceeded previous values [1] Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) - In August, China's CPI growth remained flat month-on-month, with a year-on-year decrease to -0.4%. The PPI growth shifted from a decline to flat, with a significant narrowing of the year-on-year decline [2] - Prices of pork and eggs have shown lower-than-seasonal increases, while some food prices continue to decline, affecting non-food items [2] Infrastructure and Real Estate - High-frequency data for August indicates a slight increase in the year-on-year growth rate of petroleum asphalt and cement shipments. The National Development and Reform Commission has allocated 300 billion yuan for the third batch of "two heavy" construction projects, which will support infrastructure growth [3] - In the real estate sector, first-tier city housing prices have declined more than those in second and third-tier cities, with sales of commercial housing in 30 cities in August still needing improvement [3] Consumer Behavior - The retail sales growth rate for social consumer goods in August is expected to moderate. The previous year's "old-for-new" subsidy funds have been gradually distributed, but this year faces a high base environment and increased consumer sensitivity to price changes [3] Global Economic Context - Recent expectations for overseas interest rate cuts have risen, with the US adding only 22,000 non-farm jobs in August, below the expected 75,000 and previous 79,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, the highest since November 2021 [4] - Following the employment data release, the dollar index and US bond yields fell, while gold, US stocks, and copper prices surged. Market sentiment has shifted towards recession, with an increased probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates three times this year [4]

Core Viewpoint - The seventh batch of land auctions in Shanghai concluded on September 4, 2023, with a total of 5 plots sold, covering an area of 139,900 square meters and generating a total transaction amount of 11.116 billion yuan, indicating a strong demand for quality land in the region [1][8]. Group 1: Auction Results - Three plots were sold at a premium, with the highest premium being 28.09% for the Yangpu District plot, which was won by a consortium led by China Railway Real Estate for a total price of 2.736 billion yuan [2][7]. - The Pudong District plot was sold at a premium of 13%, with Shanghai Urban Construction winning it for 5.240 billion yuan [3][4]. - Two plots were sold at the base price, including a residential and commercial plot in Qingpu District, which was acquired by Yucheng Group for 270 million yuan [5][6]. Group 2: Market Analysis - The competitive bidding for the Yangpu District plot reflects high interest from developers, with nine bidders participating, indicating a strong market outlook for high-value land [2][7]. - The presence of new entrants like Yucheng Group and Zhejiang Jinggong in the Shanghai real estate market suggests a growing recognition of the market's potential among non-traditional developers [7]. - The strategic partnerships, such as that between Yucheng Group and technology firm Xinyi Teng, highlight a trend towards integrating technology into real estate development, aiming for innovative project differentiation [7].

Core Viewpoint - The land market continues to experience a seasonal decline in transaction volume, with significant policy support from tax refunds expected to boost future land auction investments [2][4][8]. Supply and Demand - The supply of land in August reached 65.92 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 9.5%, while transaction volume was 40.74 million square meters, down 14% year-on-year [5][10]. - The average premium rate for land auctions in August was 5.6%, marking the second-lowest point of the year, with first-tier cities achieving a premium rate of 26.64%, a new monthly high for 2025 [5][18]. Market Heat - There is a significant divergence in land auction activity across different city tiers, with first-tier cities maintaining high premiums while second and third-tier cities see a decline in auction frequency [5][18]. - The average premium rates for first, second, and third/fourth-tier cities were 26.64%, 2%, and 3% respectively [5][18]. Future Outlook - The recent tax refund policy is expected to alleviate cash flow pressures for new land-acquiring companies, enhancing their confidence in participating in land auctions [8][16]. - The ongoing urban renewal and land reserve efforts are likely to improve the certainty of supply, leading to more quality land offerings in the market [7][12]. Transaction Details - As of August 25, 2025, the total transaction amount for land reached 95.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16%, primarily due to a decline in high-quality land transactions in major cities [15][19]. - The average floor price for land in August was 2,339 yuan per square meter, down 3% year-on-year and 20 percentage points from the previous month [15][18]. Key Land Transactions - The highest total price for a land transaction in August was 8.6 billion yuan for a site in Shenzhen, with a premium of 35% [23][24]. - The highest floor price was recorded at approximately 59,586 yuan per square meter for a site in Shenzhen, setting a new price record for the area [26][27].

Group 1 - The company reported stable revenue and profit growth, with a focus on core cities for land acquisition, maintaining a "buy" rating [1] - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 51.485 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.41%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.448 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.18% [1] - The gross profit margin and net profit margin were 14.38% and 3.38%, respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 2.40 percentage points and a decrease of 0.22 percentage points [1] Group 2 - The company experienced a contraction in sales scale, with a signed sales area of 3.35 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 23.6%, and a signed sales amount of 88.89 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.9% [2] - The company acquired 16 plots of land with a total construction area of 1.669 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 108%, and a total land price of 35.29 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 142% [2] - The company’s asset operation income increased by 4.1% year-on-year to 3.66 billion yuan, with an EBITDA of 1.90 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.4% [2]

Group 1 - The core issue in the real estate market is the continuous decline in both new and second-hand housing prices, with a notable drop of 1% in second-hand housing prices in four first-tier cities in July [1] - The stock market is reaching a 10-year high, leading to capital being drawn away from the real estate market, prompting some individuals to consider selling their homes to invest in stocks [1] - The National Bureau of Statistics reported a 4% year-on-year decrease in new housing sales area and a 6.5% drop in sales revenue from January to July [2] Group 2 - In July, the sales area of commercial housing plummeted by 45.8% month-on-month, reaching only 0.57 billion square meters, marking the lowest level for the same period since 2009 [2] - The ongoing sluggish sales in the real estate market could drag down the economy in the second half of the year, with potential impacts on local government finances due to reduced revenue from land sales [2][4] - A 10% drop in commercial housing sales revenue could lead to a 1% decrease in national public budget revenue, with land transfer income potentially falling by 15% the following year [4] Group 3 - Recent tax policies have been introduced to address the revenue gap left by the real estate market, including the taxation of interest income from government bonds and local government bonds starting August 8 [6] - New regulations require individuals to pay personal income tax on capital gains from overseas stock transactions at a rate of 20%, with provisions for tax credits if taxes were paid abroad [8] - The introduction of the "landlord tax" and stricter enforcement of existing tax regulations aim to increase tax compliance among property owners and high-income individuals [10][13] Group 4 - The overarching strategy of the recent tax reforms is to enforce existing tax laws more strictly rather than introducing new taxes, primarily targeting wealthier individuals [13] - To mitigate the risks associated with the real estate sector and alleviate the financial burden on homeowners, a potential solution could involve promoting moderate inflation to gradually reduce debt burdens [15]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - On August 25, equity indices and CGB futures rose, and most commodity futures increased, with coking coal and coke leading the gains [2][11][13] - Shanghai issued new property market policies, and the CSRC strengthened supervision over futures companies' internet marketing activities [39][40] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On August 25, equity indices and CGB futures rose; most commodity futures gained ground, with coking coal and coke leading the gains. The top three gainers were coking coal (up 6.5% with open interest up 3.1% month - on - month), fuel oil (up 5.1% with open interest up 4.5% month - on - month), and coke (up 4.4% with open interest up 6.2% month - on - month). The top three decliners were rapeseed (down 0.3% with open interest down 5.0% month - on - month), lithium carbonate (down 0.3% with open interest up 1.8% month - on - month), and polyester staple fiber (down 0.3% with open interest down 2.8% month - on - month) [11][12][13] 1.2 Daily Raise 1.2.1 Coking Coal - On August 25, coking coal increased by 6.5% to 1215.5 yuan/ton. Supported by slow supply recovery and rigid demand from coking enterprises, the short - term futures market has support. Attention should be paid to the potential impact of major coal mine accidents [17][20][21] - Supply: Some coal mines in main production areas resumed operations, but new ones suspended or reduced production in some areas. Imported coal customs clearance at Ganqimaodu Port increased. Demand: Coke output was stable with a slight increase, and coking enterprises procured based on demand. Upstream coal mines started to accumulate inventories slightly [18][19][21] 1.2.2 Coke - On August 25, coke increased by 4.4% to 1736 yuan/ton. With military parade - related production restriction expectations, the supply - demand tight situation may continue, and the futures market has support from rigid demand and production restriction expectations [26][28][29] - Supply: The seventh round of price increases was implemented, coking enterprise profits rebounded, and output picked up, but supply increase was limited due to high costs. Demand: Steel mills had good profits, steel exports improved, and the rigid demand for coke was strong. Inventory: Steel mills actively purchased, and coking enterprise inventories dropped to a low level and then slightly accumulated [27][28][29] 1.2.3 Fuel Oil - On August 25, fuel oil increased by 5.1% to 2907 yuan/ton. The reasons were Ukraine's attacks and US sanctions on Chinese companies, leading to the resurgence of the geopolitical premium for fuel oil. In the short - term, it performed strongly, and the bitumen - fuel oil price spread fell rapidly. In the context of Russia - Ukraine peace talks, it may be strong in the near term but weak in the long term [32][33][34] 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - Shanghai issued the "Notice on Optimizing and Adjusting the City's Real Estate Policy Measures" on August 25, including policies on housing purchase restrictions, housing provident fund, credit, and property tax, effective from August 26, 2025 [39][40] - The Shanghai Head Office of the People's Bank of China adjusted the pricing mechanism for commercial personal housing loan interest rates in Shanghai on August 25, no longer differentiating between first - home and second - home loans [39][40] - Premier Li Qiang listened to the report on the implementation of policies for large - scale equipment upgrading and consumer goods trade - in on August 22, emphasizing strengthening coordination, cracking down on fraud, and releasing domestic demand potential [39][40] 2.2 Industry News - On August 22, the CSRC issued the "Interim Provisions on the Administration of Internet Marketing by Futures Companies", strengthening the whole - process supervision over futures companies' internet marketing activities [40]

Group 1: Real Estate Development Investment - From January to July, national real estate development investment reached 535.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.0% (on a comparable basis); residential investment was 412.08 billion yuan, down 10.9% [1][11] - In the eastern region, real estate investment was 316.4 billion yuan, a decline of 14.0%, while the central and western regions saw investments of 107.94 billion yuan and 100.64 billion yuan, with decreases of 10.7% and 3.7% respectively [12] Group 2: Construction and New Starts - The total construction area for real estate development was 638.731 million square meters, down 9.2% year-on-year; residential construction area was 445.107 million square meters, a decrease of 9.4% [3][11] - New construction area was 35.206 million square meters, down 19.4%; residential new starts were 25.881 million square meters, a decline of 18.3% [3][11] Group 3: Sales Performance - From January to July, the sales area of new commercial housing was 51.56 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 4.0%; residential sales area decreased by 4.1% [4][11] - The sales revenue of new commercial housing was 495.66 billion yuan, down 6.5%; residential sales revenue decreased by 6.2% [4][11] Group 4: Inventory Situation - As of the end of July, the inventory of commercial housing was 76.486 million square meters, a decrease of 462,000 square meters from the end of June; residential inventory decreased by 285,000 square meters [6] Group 5: Funding Situation - From January to July, the funds available to real estate development enterprises totaled 572.87 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.5%; self-raised funds decreased by 8.5% to 232.3 billion yuan [7][11] - Domestic loans amounted to 92.07 billion yuan, showing a slight increase of 0.1%, while personal mortgage loans decreased by 9.3% to 79.18 billion yuan [7][11] Group 6: Market Sentiment - The real estate development prosperity index (National Real Estate Prosperity Index) stood at 93.34 in July, indicating a decline in market sentiment [8]

Group 1 - Despite a sluggish real estate market across California, San Diego County's real estate market is experiencing growth, with both home prices and sales increasing in July [2] - In July, the sales volume of existing single-family homes in San Diego County rose by 3.8% compared to June, contrasting with a 1% decline in statewide home sales [2] - The median sales price for single-family homes in San Diego County reached $1.04 million in July, an increase of $15,000 from June, and higher than the $1.02 million median price in July 2024 [2] Group 2 - The California Association of Realtors noted that the slowdown in the statewide real estate market is due to some buyers waiting for more certainty in the market and macroeconomic conditions [2] - A positive signal is the recent drop in mortgage rates to the lowest level since October of the previous year, which has led to an increase in mortgage applications [3] - If the trend of lower mortgage rates continues, stronger buyer activity and demand are expected in the coming months [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company remains optimistic about the long-term economic outlook for Hong Kong and mainland China, despite facing significant short-term challenges in the overall economy and real estate market [1][5]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported a consolidated revenue of HKD 99.54 billion, a 65% year-on-year increase, while net profit decreased by 22% [1][2]. - The property sales revenue surged 176% to HKD 64.2 billion, but rental income from properties and hotels declined by 6% and 3%, respectively [1][9]. - The basic earnings per share fell to HKD 0.42, down 22% from HKD 0.54 in the same period last year [5]. Mainland Operations - The company’s mainland property division recorded a consolidated revenue of HKD 31.43 billion, down from HKD 39.87 billion year-on-year, with a consolidated profit of HKD 16.95 billion, also lower than the previous year's HKD 21.03 billion [5][6]. - The decline in revenue was attributed to a decrease in confirmed sales of development properties, with a significant drop in revenue from development properties confirmed sales [5][6]. Hong Kong Operations - In contrast, the company’s Hong Kong property division achieved a consolidated revenue of HKD 68.11 billion, a substantial increase from HKD 20.52 billion year-on-year, with a consolidated profit of HKD 9.98 billion, up from HKD 6.17 billion [11][12]. - The growth was primarily driven by increased sales confirmations from development properties, which reached HKD 62.46 billion, compared to HKD 14.41 billion in the previous year [12][13]. Market Challenges - The company faces ongoing challenges in the commercial property market, with a 5% decline in rental income due to economic uncertainties and oversupply in the office market [10][11]. - The hotel business also saw a decline in revenue, with a reported income of HKD 10.12 billion, down from HKD 10.50 billion year-on-year [11]. Future Outlook - The company plans to gradually release remaining units from four projects based on market conditions, while also preparing to convert a warehouse into residential development [16]. - Analysts maintain a positive outlook, with expectations for recovery in pre-sales for the Shanghai Jinling project, which is crucial for the company's future performance [16].