1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall A - share market shows sector rotation, with the index facing resistance above. The futures market also shows corresponding fluctuations, and different investment strategies are recommended according to different varieties [2][3][4]. - The sentiment in the Treasury bond futures market has warmed up, but there are still short - term end - of - quarter disturbances. The bond market is generally expected to be in a pattern of short - term fluctuations but overall strength [5][6]. - The prices of precious metals are dominated by tariffs and macro - policies. Gold and silver show different trends. Gold has a long - term upward trend but faces short - term uncertainties, while silver shows a relatively strong short - term trend [8][10][11]. - The container shipping futures EC shows a volatile trend, and it is recommended to wait and see cautiously [12]. - Different metals in the non - ferrous metals sector have different market conditions. For example, copper is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term, while aluminum oxide is expected to be weak in the medium - long term [13][17]. - In the black metals sector, steel is affected by coking coal supply, iron ore may be stable and strong in the short term, and coking coal and coke have different supply - demand and price trends [41][43][45]. - In the agricultural products sector, meal products follow the decline of US soybeans, and the market trends of different agricultural products such as pigs, corn, sugar, and cotton vary [51][54][57]. 3. Summaries According to the Catalog Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: On Thursday, the A - share market opened lower, rose briefly, and then declined in the afternoon. The main stock indexes and the four major stock index futures contracts all adjusted. The basis discount of the four major stock index futures contracts was repaired to some extent [2][3]. - **News**: The National Development and Reform Commission will issue the third batch of consumer goods replacement funds in July. Overseas, Japan is negotiating tariffs with the US [3]. - **Funding**: On June 26, the A - share trading volume was basically the same as the previous day. The central bank carried out reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 305.8 billion yuan [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The index has stable support below and needs a driving force to break through above. It is recommended to try to buy the deeply discounted 09 contract of the CSI 1000 on dips and sell the 09 call option near 6300 to form a covered combination [4]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Most Treasury bond futures closed flat, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market declined [5]. - **Funding**: The central bank carried out reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 305.8 billion yuan. The central bank's attitude towards protecting liquidity is clear, and the end - of - month capital interest rate may fluctuate but is generally controllable [5][6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The end - of - month capital situation still has disturbances, and the bond market is generally cautious. It is recommended to appropriately allocate long positions on adjustments, pay attention to economic data and funding trends, and consider positive arbitrage for the TS2509 contract and curve steepening strategies [6][7]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - **Market Review**: Due to factors such as tariff negotiations and macro - policies, the US dollar index weakened, and the trends of gold and silver diverged. Gold prices declined slightly, while silver prices rose [8][10]. - **Outlook**: Gold has a long - term upward trend but faces short - term uncertainties. It is recommended to try the strategy of double - selling out - of - the - money gold options. Silver shows a relatively strong short - term trend, and its price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the range of $36 - 37 [10][11]. - **Funding**: The recent stable trends of US stocks and bonds and the strong performance of virtual currencies suppress the prices of precious metals, but the long - position boost has led to a continuous increase in silver ETF holdings [11]. Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Futures - **Spot Quotation**: The spot prices of different shipping companies are provided [12]. - **Container Shipping Index**: The SCFIS European line index rose, while the US West line index declined. The SCFI composite index declined [12]. - **Fundamentals**: The global container shipping capacity increased year - on - year. The demand side shows the PMI data of the eurozone and the US [12]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: The futures price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1700 - 1800, and it is recommended to wait and see cautiously [12][13]. Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Spot**: The average price of electrolytic copper increased, but the overall trading was inactive [13]. - **Macro**: The market's expectation of interest rate cuts has increased, the dollar index has weakened, and the COMEX - LME spread has widened again, which is beneficial to copper prices [13][14]. - **Supply**: The supply of copper concentrate is expected to be restricted, and the production of refined copper increased in May but is expected to decline slightly in June [15]. - **Demand**: The processing and terminal demand of copper show different trends. The short - term domestic demand has resilience, but the "rush - to - export" demand may lead to pressure on the demand side in Q3 [16]. - **Inventory**: COMEX inventory is accumulating, while domestic inventory is slightly decreasing [16]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: Copper prices are expected to be volatile and strong in the short term, with the main contract referring to the range of 78000 - 81000 [17]. Aluminum Oxide - **Spot**: The average spot price of aluminum oxide decreased [17]. - **Supply**: The production of metallurgical - grade aluminum oxide increased in May, and some production capacities are expected to resume production in June [18]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory of aluminum oxide decreased, and the total registered warehouse receipts decreased [18]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: The supply of aluminum oxide is in a state of slight excess, and it is recommended to arrange short positions at high prices in the medium - long term, with the main contract referring to the range of 2750 - 3100 [19]. Aluminum - **Spot**: The average spot price of aluminum decreased, and the premium decreased [20]. - **Supply**: The production of electrolytic aluminum increased in May, and the aluminum - water ratio remained high. The production capacity is expected to remain high in June [20]. - **Demand**: Downstream industries are in the traditional off - season, and the operating rates of various industries have declined [20]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum ingots increased, and the LME inventory decreased [21]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: Aluminum prices are expected to be in a wide - range high - level shock, with the main contract referring to the range of 19800 - 20800 [21]. Aluminum Alloy - **Spot**: The average spot price of aluminum alloy remained unchanged [21]. - **Supply**: The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased in May, and the operating rate is expected to decline slightly in June [22]. - **Demand**: The demand is under pressure, and the market trading activity has decreased. The impact of the Sino - US economic and trade talks on actual demand has not yet been effective [22]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of aluminum alloy has increased significantly [22]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: The market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to be in a weak shock, with the main contract referring to the range of 19200 - 20000 [23]. Zinc - **Spot**: The average price of zinc ingots increased, but the downstream receiving willingness was low [23]. - **Supply**: The supply of zinc ore is expected to be loose, and the production of refined zinc is expected to increase in June [24]. - **Demand**: The demand at the initial end is weakening, and the downstream is mainly purchasing on dips [25]. - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory and LME inventory are both decreasing [25]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: Zinc prices are expected to be in a shock in the short term, with the main contract referring to the range of 21500 - 23000 [26]. Tin - **Spot**: The price of tin increased, but the market trading was cold [26]. - **Supply**: The import of tin ore increased in May, mainly from Africa, while the supply from Myanmar remained low [27][28]. - **Demand and Inventory**: The demand is in the off - season, and the inventory shows different trends. The LME inventory decreased, while the warehouse receipts of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased [28]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: Tin prices are expected to be in a wide - range shock in the short term. It is recommended to short at high prices according to the inflection points of inventory and import data [29]. Nickel - **Spot**: The average price of electrolytic nickel increased [29]. - **Supply**: The production of refined nickel is at a high level, and the monthly production is expected to decline slightly [29]. - **Demand**: The demand for electroplating and alloys is stable, while the demand for stainless steel and nickel sulfate is weak [30]. - **Inventory**: The overseas inventory remains high, and the domestic social inventory shows a slight downward trend [30]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: Nickel prices are expected to be in a weak shock in the short term, with the main contract referring to the range of 116000 - 124000 [31]. Stainless Steel - **Spot**: The price of stainless steel increased slightly, and the basis decreased [32]. - **Raw Materials**: The price of nickel ore is expected to decline, and the price of nickel iron has decreased. The price of chrome ore has weak support [32]. - **Supply**: The production of stainless steel is expected to decrease slightly in June, with an increase in the 300 - series production [33]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory has increased, and the warehouse receipts have decreased [34]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: The price of stainless steel is expected to be in a weak operation, with the main contract referring to the range of 12300 - 13000 [35]. Lithium Carbonate - **Spot**: The price of lithium carbonate increased, and the price of lithium hydroxide decreased [36]. - **Supply**: The production of lithium carbonate is expected to increase in June, and the supply is still sufficient [37]. - **Demand**: The demand is generally stable, but there is pressure in the off - season [37]. - **Inventory**: The inventory has been accumulating in all links [38]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: The price of lithium carbonate is expected to be in a weak shock in the short term, with the main contract referring to the range of 58000 - 62000 [39]. Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - **Spot**: The spot price remained stable, and the futures price fluctuated slightly [41]. - **Supply**: The production of steel decreased from a high level, and the production of five major steel products increased slightly [41]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand of five major steel products decreased slightly, and the inventory was at a low level and basically balanced [41]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of steel is approaching the accumulation inflection point, with the inventory of rebar decreasing and the inventory of hot - rolled coil increasing slightly [42]. - **View**: It is recommended to short on rebounds for rebar and hot - rolled coil, and also consider selling out - of - the - money call options [42]. Iron Ore - **Spot**: The price of mainstream iron ore powder remained stable [43]. - **Futures**: The iron ore futures contract increased slightly [43]. - **Basis**: The basis of PB powder is 33.7 yuan/ton [43]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron production remained at a high level, and the demand for iron ore has certain resilience [43]. - **Supply**: The global shipment of iron ore increased, and the arrival volume at ports also increased [43][44]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory increased slightly, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory decreased [44]. - **View**: Iron ore is expected to be stable and strong in the short term, and it is recommended to go long on dips, with the range referring to 690 - 740 [44]. Coking Coal - **Futures and Spot**: The coking coal futures price increased, and the spot price was weakly stable [45]. - **Supply**: The production capacity utilization rate of coal mines decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased [45][46]. - **Demand**: The demand for coking coal increased slightly, and the apparent demand increased [46]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of coking coal decreased [46]. - **View**: It is recommended to go long on dips for the coking coal 2509 contract in the short term and consider the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [47][48]. Coke - **Futures and Spot**: The coke futures price increased, and the spot price was stable. The fourth round of price cuts was implemented [49]. - **Profit**: The average profit per ton of coke was negative [49]. - **Supply**: The production of coke decreased slightly [49]. - **Demand**: The demand for coke increased slightly, and the apparent demand increased [50]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of coke decreased [50]. - **View**: It is recommended to hedge the coke 2509 contract at high prices after the rebound, and consider the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [50]. Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal Products - **Spot Market**: The price of soybean meal decreased, and the price of rapeseed meal decreased. The trading volume of rapeseed meal was 300 tons, and the opening rate of rapeseed pressing plants was 17% [51]. - **Fundamentals**: Analysts expect the US soybean inventory and planting area. The export of Brazilian soybeans slowed down, and the soybean harvest in Ukraine is expected to decrease [52]. - **Market Outlook**: The soybean meal price may follow the decline of US soybeans, but the support is expected to gradually strengthen [53]. Pigs - **Spot Situation**: The spot price of pigs fluctuated, with an average price of 14.56 yuan/kg [54]. - **Market Data**: The profit of self - breeding and self - raising pigs increased, while the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening turned negative. The average slaughter weight decreased slightly [55]. - **Market Outlook**: The spot price of pigs is in a shock structure. The short - term futures price may be strong, but there may be a decline risk near the delivery of the 09 contract [56]. Corn - **Spot Price**: The price of corn in Northeast China, North China, and ports remained stable, with a slight increase in the price at Shekou Port [57]. - **Fundamentals**: The inventory of corn in northern four ports and processing enterprises decreased, and the inventory of feed enterprises decreased slightly [57][58]. - **Market Outlook**: The price of corn may decline slightly in the short term due to auction expectations, but the decline is limited. It is recommended to go long on dips in the medium - long term [58]. Sugar - **Market Analysis**: The global sugar supply is expected to be loose, and the price of raw sugar is expected to be in a weak shock. The domestic sugar price is expected to be in a bottom - range shock, with the reference range of 5650 - 5850 [59]. - **Fundamentals**: The sugar production in Brazil increased in May, and the sugar production in Thailand is expected to increase in the 2025/26 season. The import of sugar in China increased in May [59][60]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to short on rebounds [59]. Cotton - **Market Analysis**: The domestic cotton price is expected to be in a range shock, and it is necessary to pay attention to the macro and downstream demand [60]. - **Fundamentals**: The cotton planting progress in the US is slightly behind [61].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - In the "strong reality + weak expectation" scenario, copper prices lack a clear and smooth trend. The strong reality of the fundamentals limits price drops, while weak macro - expectations restrict upward movement. Short - term prices are likely to fluctuate. The "rush to export" demand may lead to pressure on the real demand side in Q3. The main reference range is 78,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - Alumina prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 2750 - 3150 yuan/ton. Aluminum prices are expected to have a high - level wide - range fluctuation in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 19,600 - 20,600 yuan/ton. The future core driver lies in the continuous game between cost support and over - capacity [2]. Zinc - In the long - term, zinc is in a supply - side loosening cycle. If the growth rate of the mining end is lower than expected and downstream consumption performs better than expected, zinc prices may maintain a high - level oscillation pattern. Otherwise, the price center may shift downward. The long - term approach is to short on rallies, with the main reference range of 21,500 - 22,500 yuan/ton [7]. Nickel - In the short term, the nickel market is expected to have a weak - range adjustment, with the main reference range of 116,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton. The mid - term supply is expected to be loose, which restricts the upward space of prices [9]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market fundamentals are weak. The supply is in an over - capacity situation, and the terminal demand is weak. The short - term supply - demand contradiction still exerts pressure on the market. It is expected to operate weakly, with the main reference range of 12,300 - 13,000 yuan/ton [13]. Tin - In the short term, tin prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. However, considering the weak demand expectation, the strategy is to short on rallies based on inventory and import data inflection points [15]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium - carbonate market is expected to operate weakly in the short - term range. The strategy is to short on rallies, with the main reference range of 56,000 - 62,000 yuan/ton [16]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 78,580 yuan/ton, up 0.21% from the previous day. The price of other copper products also shows different degrees of increase or decrease [1]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum price is 20,530 yuan/ton, down 0.05% from the previous day. Alumina prices in different regions also have different changes [2]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22,200 yuan/ton, up 0.23% from the previous day [7]. - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 119,550 yuan/ton, up 0.46% from the previous day [9]. - **Stainless Steel**: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) price is 12,650 yuan/ton, up 0.40% from the previous day [13]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin price is 262,100 yuan/ton, down 0.61% from the previous day [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 60,200 yuan/ton, up 0.50% from the previous day [16]. Fundamental Data - **Copper**: In May, electrolytic copper production was 113.83 million tons, up 1.12% month - on - month; imports were 25.31 million tons, up 1.23% month - on - month [1]. - **Aluminum**: In May, alumina production was 727.21 million tons, up 2.66% month - on - month; electrolytic aluminum production was 372.90 million tons, up 3.41% month - on - month [2]. - **Zinc**: In May, refined zinc production was 54.94 million tons, down 1.08% month - on - month; imports were 2.82 million tons, up 2.40% month - on - month [7]. - **Nickel**: China's refined nickel production was 35,350 tons, down 2.62% month - on - month; imports were 8832 tons, up 8.18% month - on - month [9]. - **Stainless Steel**: China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production (43 companies) was 179.12 million tons, up 0.36% month - on - month [13]. - **Tin**: In May, tin ore imports were 13,449 tons, up 36.39% month - on - month; SMM refined tin production was 14,840 tons, down 2.37% month - on - month [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In May, lithium carbonate production was 72,080 tons, down 2.34% month - on - month; demand was 93,960 tons, up 4.83% month - on - month [16]. Inventory - **Copper**: Domestic social inventory was 12.96 million tons, down 12.25% week - on - week; bonded - area inventory was 6.43 million tons, up 7.71% week - on - week [1]. - **Aluminum**: China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 46.40 million tons, up 1.31% week - on - week; LME inventory was 33.8 million tons, down 0.59% day - on - day [2]. - **Zinc**: China's zinc ingot seven - region social inventory was 7.78 million tons, down 0.38% week - on - week; LME inventory was 12.3 million tons, down 0.47% day - on - day [7]. - **Nickel**: SHFE inventory was 25,693 tons, up 0.30% week - on - week; LME inventory was 203,928 tons, down 0.11% day - on - day [9]. - **Stainless Steel**: 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) was 53.42 million tons, up 0.64% week - on - week; SHFE warehouse receipts were 11.29 million tons, down 0.32% day - on - day [13]. - **Tin**: SHEF inventory (weekly) was 6965 tons, down 2.00% week - on - week; social inventory was 8845 tons, down 1.12% week - on - week [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Total lithium carbonate inventory in May was 97,637 tons, up 1.49% month - on - month [16].

Research Views - The A-share market fluctuated and declined, with the Wind All A index down 0.1% and a trading volume of 1.24 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000, CSI 500, SSE 50, and CSI 300 indices also declined. The market is affected by the Israel-Iran conflict and potential policy changes in June [1]. - The performance of Chinese assets has been strong since June, with both stocks and bonds rising. Factors include the resumption of Sino-US communication, potential changes in long-term consumption stimulus policies, and the upcoming Lujiazui Forum [1]. - The recent PPI data shows that China's inflation level remains low, and the second-quarter fundamentals may turn into a situation of "weak reality, strong expectation". The consumer and technology sectors may still be dominant in the market style [1]. - In terms of corporate earnings, the decline in the revenue growth rate of A-share listed companies has narrowed for three consecutive quarters, but it is still lower than the policy interest rate. The net profit has increased by about 4% year-on-year, but the ROE is still in the stage of bottoming out [1]. - Treasury bond futures closed higher, with the 30-year, 10-year, 5-year, and 2-year main contracts up 0.24%, 0.14%, 0.15%, and 0.08% respectively. The central bank conducted 1973 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations, with the interest rate remaining stable at 1.4%. The net withdrawal of funds was 1833 billion yuan [1][2]. - The bond market strengthened slightly due to the loosening of the capital market, but the economy shows strong resilience under the influence of the "rush to export" effect and stable growth policies. The bond market is expected to remain in a volatile pattern in the short term [2]. Price Changes Stock Index Futures | Contract | 2025-06-17 | 2025-06-16 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH | 2,680.8 | 2,678.4 | 2.4 | 0.09% | | IF | 3,868.6 | 3,869.8 | -1.2 | -0.03% | | IC | 5,748.4 | 5,756.2 | -7.8 | -0.14% | | IM | 6,130.0 | 6,127.4 | 2.6 | 0.04% | Stock Indices | Index | 2025-06-17 | 2025-06-16 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SSE 50 | 2,684.0 | 2,685.0 | -1.1 | -0.04% | | CSI 300 | 3,870.4 | 3,873.8 | -3.4 | -0.09% | | CSI 500 | 5,750.9 | 5,767.8 | -16.9 | -0.29% | | CSI 1000 | 6,141.5 | 6,147.5 | -6.0 | -0.10% | Treasury Bond Futures | Contract | 2025-06-17 | 2025-06-16 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS | 102.54 | 102.47 | 0.074 | 0.07% | | TF | 106.30 | 106.15 | 0.155 | 0.15% | | T | 109.16 | 109.02 | 0.145 | 0.13% | | TL | 120.82 | 120.52 | 0.3 | 0.25% | Market News - The Bank of Japan will conduct a mid-term review of its bond purchase program in June next year and will slow down the pace of reducing bond purchases due to concerns about market volatility [5]. - The Bank of Japan believes that inflation expectations are not yet stable and that there are two-way risks to prices. Trade policy is highly uncertain, and tariff issues may affect next year's spring wage negotiations [6]. Chart Analysis Stock Index Futures - The report provides charts showing the trends of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts, as well as the basis trends of these contracts [8][9][11]. Treasury Bond Futures - The report includes charts of the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and funding rates [15][17][19]. Exchange Rates - The report presents charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro, and other currencies against the RMB, as well as forward exchange rates, currency indices, and cross - currency exchange rates [22][23][26].

Group 1: Consumption Growth and Policies - In May 2025, retail sales grew by 6.4% year-on-year, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 4.85%[1] - The government has prioritized "restoring and expanding consumption" as a key task for 2025, with over 20 specific measures introduced to stimulate consumption[1] - The "old-for-new" subsidy policy for consumer goods has been expanded, with the subsidy amount increasing from 150 billion yuan in 2024 to 300 billion yuan in 2025[2] Group 2: Impact of Subsidy Policies - The "old-for-new" policy has driven sales of five major categories of consumer goods to reach 1.1 trillion yuan, with approximately 175 million subsidies issued to consumers by the end of May 2025[2] - Retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment saw a year-on-year increase of over 30%, indicating strong demand driven by the subsidy policies[5] - The tourism sector experienced a record high during the Dragon Boat Festival, with 119 million domestic trips and total spending of 42.73 billion yuan, reflecting a 5.9% increase year-on-year[10] Group 3: Long-term Consumer Confidence Challenges - Despite short-term stimulus effects, consumer willingness remains low, with only 24.9% of residents inclined to spend more, while 61.4% prefer to save[15] - Structural issues such as housing, education, and healthcare costs continue to suppress consumer spending, necessitating deeper policy interventions[15] - To enhance long-term consumption capacity, policies must focus on stabilizing income expectations and reducing rigid expenditure pressures[19] Group 4: Future Policy Directions - The government aims to improve income distribution and social security systems to stabilize residents' income expectations and strengthen consumption capacity[23] - Enhancements to vacation policies are essential for activating long-term service consumption potential, with new regulations increasing holiday days starting January 1, 2025[20] - Coordinated policy measures are necessary to create a sustainable consumption environment, moving beyond short-term incentives to long-term structural improvements[23]

Economic Performance Overview - In May, the national economy demonstrated stable growth with industrial added value increasing by 5.8% year-on-year and 0.61% month-on-month, while the cumulative growth from January to May reached 6.3% [1] - Retail sales of consumer goods totaled 41,326 billion yuan in May, marking a 6.4% year-on-year increase, which is 1.3 percentage points higher than the previous month [1] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) amounted to 191,947 billion yuan from January to May, reflecting a 3.7% year-on-year growth, with a notable 7.7% increase when excluding real estate development investment [1] Economic Characteristics - The economy exhibited five key characteristics: stable growth supported by policy measures, steady operation with a decreasing unemployment rate, continuous improvement in domestic demand and production supply, accumulation of new growth drivers in high-end manufacturing and digital economy, and resilience in the face of external challenges [2][3] - The overall economic performance in May was characterized by strong resilience and vitality, with macro policies working in coordination to support stability [3] Price and Real Estate Market - In May, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a slight decline year-on-year, influenced by international factors and falling food prices, while the core CPI's growth rate steadily expanded [4] - The real estate market remained stable, with a narrowing year-on-year decline in housing prices across 70 major cities and a continuous reduction in inventory [4] Consumption and Investment Trends - Consumption growth in May exceeded expectations, driven by policies such as trade-in programs and national subsidies, with retail sales reaching their highest level of the year [6] - Key categories such as home appliances, furniture, and communication equipment saw significant sales increases, indicating the effectiveness of consumption stimulus policies [6] Future Outlook - The economic fundamentals remain strong, with expectations for continued monetary easing and fiscal support for consumption and real estate markets [5][6] - The focus will be on enhancing domestic demand and structural reforms to ensure stable economic growth amid external uncertainties [3]

Economic Performance - In May, the retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4% year-on-year, up from 5.1% in April, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 4.9%[2] - The growth rate of fixed asset investment fell to 3.7% year-on-year, slightly below the market expectation and April's figure of 4.0%[3] - Industrial production growth declined to 5.8% in May from 6.1% in April, also below the expected 6.0%[7] Consumer Trends - The sales growth of communication equipment surged to 33.0% in May, up from 19.9% in April, while home appliance sales jumped to 53.0% from 38.8%[2] - Restaurant consumption growth rose to 5.9%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points from April[2] - The consumer price index (CPI) remained negative at -0.1% for the fourth consecutive month, indicating low inflation[8] Investment and Housing Market - Real estate development investment fell by 10.7% year-on-year in May, worsening from the previous month's decline of 10.3%[3] - The average price of new homes in 70 major cities decreased by 0.22% month-on-month in May, compared to a decline of 0.12% in April[6] - The sales area of commercial housing in early June dropped by 9.4% year-on-year, reflecting ongoing weakness in the housing market[8] Policy Outlook - The government is expected to introduce fiscal support of 0.5-1.0 trillion yuan (approximately 0.35%-0.7% of GDP) by September, given the current economic conditions[1] - A potential reduction in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 50 basis points and interest rate cuts of 10-20 basis points are anticipated in the second half of the year[1]

Market Performance Review - The liquor sector underperformed compared to the overall food and beverage sector and the CSI 300 index, with a decline of 2.82% during the week from May 19 to May 23 [1][2] - Other beverage categories, such as beer and soft drinks, showed positive growth, with increases of 0.98% and 1.97% respectively [1][3] Regulatory Impact - The newly revised "Regulations on Strict Economy and Opposition to Waste in Party and Government Organs" specifies that alcoholic beverages are not allowed during work meals, which has limited impact on the liquor sector as the proportion of government consumption in overall liquor sales is already low [1][2] Young Consumer Strategy - Major liquor companies like Moutai, Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao are focusing on strategies to attract younger consumers, which is seen as a short-term demand growth direction and a long-term measure to prevent a consumption gap in the liquor market [1][2] Shareholder Confidence - Guizhou Moutai held a shareholder meeting emphasizing confidence in the company's quality, culture, innovation capabilities, and service awareness, reflecting the leadership's determination [2] Upcoming Catalysts - With the Dragon Boat Festival approaching, attention is drawn to indicators such as payment collection and price performance from liquor companies that could act as catalysts for the sector [1][2] Valuation Insights - The current price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) for the Shenwan liquor index is 19.52X, which is considered relatively low at 11.85% compared to the past decade, suggesting potential for valuation recovery with the introduction of consumer stimulus policies [2] Other Food and Beverage Trends - The pre-processed food sector showed positive performance, with specific stocks like Haitian Flavor Industry benefiting from H-share issuance, indicating a favorable outlook [4] - The beverage sector is expected to improve as warmer weather approaches and consumer promotion policies are implemented, which may enhance demand in the restaurant and nightlife sectors [3]

Group 1 - The beer industry is undergoing a deep adjustment cycle in 2024, facing continuous demand contraction pressure in the first three quarters, exacerbated by extreme weather disturbances and channel deleveraging, leading to a "demand-inventory-funding" triple pressure [1] - A turning point is expected to begin in late Q3 2024, with policy shifts and improved consumer income expectations stabilizing the restaurant channel's closure rate [1] - Leading companies are successfully building new growth drivers through balance sheet repair and proactive operational strategy adjustments, including accelerated transformation towards non-on-premise channels and deepening digital retail layouts [1] Group 2 - In Q1 2025, the beer sector's revenue reached 20.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 2.53 billion yuan, up 10.9% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in both volume and price [1] - Short-term expectations indicate a rebound in beer sales due to the upcoming consumption peak and macro policy improvements, with channel replenishment and on-premise recovery creating a synergistic effect [2] - Long-term, ongoing consumption stimulus policies, such as restaurant consumption vouchers, are anticipated to directly benefit beer consumption, while the high-end market still holds significant potential for price upgrades [2]

纺织服装行业：2024 及 2025Q1 业绩承压， 未来愈加明朗 2025 年 5 月 19 日 看好/维持 纺织服装 行业报告 | 分析师 | 刘田田 电话：010-66554038 邮箱：liutt@dxzq.net.cn | 执业证书编号：S1480521010001 | | --- | --- | --- | | 分析师 | 沈逸伦 电话：010-66554044 邮箱：shenyl@dxzq.net.cn | 执业证书编号：S1480523060001 | 投资摘要： 2024 年纺织逐季走弱，服装整体承压。纺织制造板块 2024 年收入 1181 亿元，同比+8.37%，归母净利润 92.91 亿元，同比 +8.6%，其中 Q4 单季度板块收入 285 亿元，同比+2.29%；归母净利润 17.17 亿元，同比-10.80%，24 年是逐季度走弱的情 况，主要系外需走弱。服装家纺板块 2024 年收入约 1528 亿元，同比-2.2%，利润 101.3 亿元，同比-29.95%。其中 Q4 单 季度板块收入 466.9 亿元，同比-2.9%，归母净利润 5.6 亿元，同比-80%。整体上 202 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that since the second quarter of 2024, the revenue growth of listed liquor companies has significantly slowed down due to weak industry consumption demand, alongside increased competition and diminished scale effects impacting profitability [1] Group 1: Industry Performance - The overall sales volume of the liquor industry during the Spring Festival has shown a certain degree of narrowing in the year-on-year decline [1] - If future demand stabilizes gradually, considering the base effect in 2024, it is expected that the performance of liquor companies may improve starting from the third quarter of 2025 [1] Group 2: Company Strategies - Leading liquor companies are continuously enhancing shareholder returns through increased dividend rates, share buybacks, and stock purchases, thereby increasing investment safety margins [1] - Anticipation of forthcoming consumption stimulus policies and expectations of continued macroeconomic recovery support the recommendation to maintain allocations in leading liquor enterprises [1]