Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The prices of crude oil, PVC,沪铜, urea, asphalt, PP, plastic,豆油,豆粕,焦煤,螺纹钢, and热卷 are expected to show different trends. Crude oil is expected to be strongly volatile in the near term; PVC is expected to be in a low - level oscillation;沪铜 is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term; urea is expected to be in a short - term oscillation; asphalt is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread at low prices; PP and plastic are expected to be in low - level oscillations;豆油's basis is expected to be in a weak oscillation;豆粕 is expected to be strong in the short term;焦煤 is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term;螺纹钢 is expected to continue the oscillation and stabilization trend;热卷 is expected to run in an interval oscillation [3][6][11][14][15][17][18][20][22][23][25][27] Summary by Variety Crude Oil - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have cooled down, and concerns about supply disruptions have eased. However, the subsequent development of the situation needs attention [3] - Entering the seasonal travel peak, US crude oil inventories are at a low level, but overall oil product inventories have increased. OPEC + will increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding expectations [3] - Saudi Aramco has raised the official selling price of Arab Light crude oil to Asia, exceeding expectations. OPEC + is discussing suspending further production increases from October [3] - OPEC has lowered its global oil demand forecast for the next four years, and the market has reflected the accelerated production increase of OPEC +. The IEA has raised the global crude oil surplus in 2025 [3] - Concerns about trade negotiations and sanctions policies need attention, and the price is expected to be strongly volatile [3][5] PVC - The price of upstream calcium carbide has increased in some areas, and the PVC operating rate has increased, but downstream operating rates are low, and procurement is cautious [6] - India has postponed the BIS policy, and the anti - dumping policy may limit exports. Social inventories continue to increase, and the real estate market is still in adjustment [6] - The price is expected to be in a low - level oscillation [6] 沪铜 - The Fed's possible interest rate cut has led to a decline in the US dollar index, boosting the non - ferrous market. Copper smelting processing fees have stopped falling and stabilized, and copper supply expectations have improved [11] - Electrolytic copper consumption has increased, but downstream procurement sentiment is weak. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has decreased, and the spot premium has strengthened [11] - The price is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to tariff expectations and the Fed's interest - rate decision [11] Carbonate Lithium - The price has risen due to market sentiment, but the actual impact on the fundamentals is small. Supply has increased, and inventories have continued to accumulate [12] - The price of spodumene has increased, providing cost support. Downstream demand is mainly for rigid replenishment, and the new energy vehicle market has shown an upward trend [12][13] - The futures price is far higher than the spot price, and the market is dominated by sentiment. After the sentiment stabilizes, a correction is expected [13] Urea - The upstream has lowered prices to attract orders, and the downstream has replenished inventory at low prices, with good market transactions. This week's production has decreased, and next week's production is expected to increase [14] - Northern agricultural demand is coming to an end, and compound fertilizer factories' demand has increased slightly. Inventories have continued to decrease, but the rate has slowed down [14] - The price is expected to oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to news disturbances [14] Asphalt - The operating rate has increased but is still at a low level. July's production is expected to increase. Downstream operating rates have fluctuated, and shipments have decreased [15] - Inventories have increased slightly, and terminal project funds are restricted. Geopolitical risks have cooled down, and crude oil prices have risen [15][16] - It is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread at low prices [16] PP - The downstream operating rate has decreased, and US tariffs and import restrictions have affected the industry. Some overhaul devices have restarted, and the enterprise operating rate has increased [17] - Petrochemical inventories are at a high level. The new production capacity has been put into operation, and downstream demand recovery is slow [17] - The price is expected to be in a low - level oscillation, and attention should be paid to the development of the global trade war [17] Plastic - The operating rate has remained stable, and the downstream operating rate has increased slightly. US tariffs and import restrictions have an impact, but the cancellation of US ethane restrictions is beneficial [18] - New production capacity has been put into operation, and some overhaul devices have restarted. The off - season demand is weak, and inventory pressure is high [18][19] - The price is expected to be in a low - level oscillation, and attention should be paid to the development of the global trade war [19] 豆油 - The price has risen, and if it breaks through the key resistance level, there may be room for further increase. The domestic oil mill operating rate and crushing volume are high, and the US soybean production outlook is optimistic [20] - International oil prices have risen, which may boost the demand for vegetable oils. Indonesia's potential increase in biodiesel blending may push up the price of palm oil and indirectly affect 豆油 [20] - The basis is expected to be in a weak oscillation, and attention should be paid to the US biodiesel policy and weather changes [20] 豆粕 - The price has risen strongly, breaking through the 3000 mark. The US soybean crop conditions have improved, and domestic inventories are high, but there is a large gap in fourth - quarter import orders [21][22] - Consumption demand has increased, but the adjustment of the aquaculture industry and high - temperature weather may reduce demand [22] - The price is expected to be strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to the fourth - quarter soybean procurement progress and the adjustment of the aquaculture industry [22] 焦煤 - The price has risen. The customs clearance of Mongolian coal has resumed, and production at mines and coal - washing plants has increased. Mine inventories have decreased, and downstream inventories have increased [23] - The first round of coke price increases has been implemented, and there is an expectation of a second - round increase. Downstream demand is strong, and steel mill profits have increased [23] - The price is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to the impact of Mongolian coal customs clearance and Indonesian export taxes [23] 螺纹钢 - The price has shown a "strong oscillation and then a decline" trend. Supply and demand have both weakened, with production and apparent demand decreasing. However, the profit per ton of steel is good, and the sustainability of production cuts needs to be monitored [25] - Demand has continued to weaken seasonally, and engineering funds are at a low level. Inventories are at a low level, and the contradiction is not prominent. Policy expectations and raw material strength provide cost support [25] - The price is expected to continue the oscillation and stabilization trend, but attention should be paid to the possible correction of macro - optimistic expectations [25] 热卷 - The price has shown a "rising and then oscillating" trend. Production has increased marginally, but there may be a decline in the future. Domestic demand is weak in the off - season, and export has improved marginally, but there are still risks [26][27] - Inventories have decreased slowly, and there is a risk of passive inventory accumulation in the off - season. The price is under pressure but also has strong support [27] - The price is expected to run in an interval oscillation, with an upper pressure of 3350 yuan/ton [27]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - The controversy within the Federal Reserve has led to a decline in the US dollar index, boosting the non - ferrous metals market. The copper inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has decreased this week, and the spot premium has strengthened. It is expected that Shanghai copper will fluctuate strongly in the short term. Attention should be paid to tariff expectations and the Federal Reserve's interest - rate decision [1] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Today, copper opened low and moved high with a strong intraday oscillation. Federal Reserve Governor Waller suggested a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in July, causing the US dollar index to decline. As of July 11, 2025, the spot smelting fee was - 43.23 dollars per dry ton, and the spot refining fee was - 4.32 cents per pound. Although the copper smelting processing fee is still negative, it has stopped falling and stabilized. The copper concentrate inventory has increased this period, and the expected tight supply of copper may improve. After the 232 copper tariff is implemented, the domestic copper inventory is expected to accumulate. The demand from downstream industries is weak overall, except for the bright refrigerator production and sales data. [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The Shanghai copper futures market opened low and weakened intraday, closing at 77,840. The long positions of the top 20 were 103,634 lots, a decrease of 4,798 lots; the short positions were 102,315 lots, a decrease of 1,478 lots. Spot: The spot premium in East China was 60 yuan per ton, and in South China was 45 yuan per ton. On July 17, 2025, the LME official price was 9,620 dollars per ton, and the spot premium was - 34.5 dollars per ton [4] Supply Side - As of July 11, the latest data showed that the spot smelting fee (TC) was - 43.23 dollars per dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.32 cents per pound [6] Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory was 38,200 tons, a decrease of 3,900 tons from the previous period. As of July 17, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 69,300 tons, unchanged from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 122,200 tons, a slight increase of 25 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 241,800 short tons, an increase of 2,379 short tons from the previous period [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided report. 2. Report's Core View The report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals and related products, provides short - and medium - term trend judgments and investment strategies based on factors such as supply, demand, inventory, and macro - environment. It recommends short - selling strategies for some metals like tin and aluminum, and suggests different trading directions according to the specific situation of each variety [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Copper - **Market sentiment and macro - factors**: After the "Big Beautiful" bill was signed, market attention shifted to tariffs. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in late July is considered low, and the US dollar index rebounded. The US labor market is generally stable [1]. - **Domestic supply and demand**: It is in the consumption off - season. SMM social inventory increased by 11,000 tons to 142,900 tons, and the copper product start - up rates declined. Except for stable power grid demand, the demand for home appliances and motors decreased significantly. The processing fee has bottomed out but improved little. The copper output in June decreased slightly, and the refined copper output is expected to increase in July [1]. - **Overseas news**: Chile's copper output in May reached the highest this year, with a year - on - year increase of 9.4%. The Cobre Panama mine has shipped over 33,000 tons of copper concentrate after easing relations with the government [1]. - **Trend**: The Shanghai copper price was blocked at 81,000 yuan. In the medium - and long - term, it is recommended to focus on short - selling at high levels. In the short - term, the Shanghai copper main contract will first fill the gap at 78,900 yuan [1]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Alumina situation**: The transaction of Guinea bauxite is deadlocked, and the price is stable at $75 per ton. The operating capacity of alumina increased by 400,000 tons to 9.355 million tons, and the total industry inventory increased slightly. The futures - spot price of alumina increased, and the futures month - spread widened [1]. - **Supply**: The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is stable at 4.39 - 4.4 million tons, with no expected capacity changes in the short term [1]. - **Demand**: The start - up rate of the aluminum processing industry decreased by 0.1% to 58.7%. Different sectors such as aluminum plate and strip, aluminum cable, aluminum profile, and aluminum foil all face challenges in demand [1]. - **Inventory and spot**: Aluminum ingot and aluminum rod social inventories increased. The spot price in some regions decreased, and the aluminum rod processing fee in South China remained at a very low level [1]. - **Trend**: There is inventory accumulation, weak downstream start - up, and the spot price turned to a discount. The high position of the Shanghai aluminum index indicates large market differences. Attention should be paid to whether long - positions will reduce their positions [1]. Zinc - **Market trend**: The zinc price rebounded but did not break through the previous high, showing a weak trend. The import window remained closed [1]. - **Supply**: LME inventory continued to decline, mainly due to imports to China. The TC continued to rise, and new smelting capacities contributed to the increase. Some smelters increased or resumed production, while others reduced or suspended production. The social inventory increased, indicating a possible inventory inflection point [1]. - **Consumption**: It is in the off - season. The "Big and Beautiful" bill and US economic data affected the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut. Both domestic and foreign demand are under pressure, and the consumption negative feedback dragged down the zinc price [1]. - **Trend**: With increasing supply and weak demand, the strategy of short - selling on rebounds remains unchanged [1]. Lead - **Market situation**: The London lead price was driven up by external funds, which also pulled up the Shanghai lead price. The Shanghai lead price stabilized above 17,000 yuan [1]. - **Spot and supply**: The supply of lead concentrates remains tight. The TC of domestic and imported ores decreased. The production of primary lead increased overall, and some refineries actively shipped. The refined - scrap lead price difference remained low. The total supply of lead ingots increased year - on - year, and the proportion of primary lead production increased [1]. - **Consumption**: LME lead inventory decreased, and overseas consumption was weak. The domestic consumption is in the transition period between off - season and peak season. The start - up rate of lead - acid battery enterprises increased, but the downstream was afraid of high prices, and the social inventory increased [1]. - **Trend**: Consumption is advanced, and the marginal increase in demand is affected by US tariffs. The difference between peak and off - seasons is gradually blurred. Long - positions can be held with 17,000 yuan as the support, and attention should be paid to the pressure level of 17,800 yuan [1]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Futures market**: The Shanghai nickel price rebounded, and the market was active. The Shanghai stainless steel performance was slightly weaker [1]. - **Macro and demand**: The "anti - involution" theme has fermented, but the downstream is in the off - season, and the procurement intention is low [1]. - **Spot and supply**: The premium of different nickel products varies. The change in the Indonesian nickel ore quota period affected the market sentiment. The upstream price support weakened. The nickel iron inventory increased, the pure nickel inventory decreased, and the stainless steel inventory decreased slightly but remained at a high level [1]. - **Trend**: The Shanghai nickel is still in a short - selling trend, and short - positions should be held [1]. Tin - **Market trend**: The domestic and overseas tin prices were blocked at 270,000 yuan and $34,000 respectively, and the trading volume and open interest decreased. The previous rise of the tin price was mainly driven by funds [1]. - **Supply**: The geopolitical risk between the DRC and Rwanda decreased. The domestic concentrate processing fee remained low, and the resumption of supply from mines is expected to be delayed until August. The output in July may increase slightly or remain flat. The Malaysian smelter resumed production, and the LME inventory remained unchanged [1]. - **Consumption**: After entering the delivery month, the domestic spot price increase was limited. The social inventory increased. The market is concerned about the impact of photovoltaic policies and UK tariffs on tin demand [1]. - **Trend**: The short - selling strategy remains unchanged. Hold the short - positions at the previous high of 268,000 - 272,000 yuan, and the tin price may fall back to 262,000 yuan [1]. Lithium Carbonate - **Futures market**: The lithium carbonate price fluctuated at a low level, trying to break through upwards, and the market divergence decreased [1]. - **Spot market**: The Shanghai electrolytic carbon spot price stabilized and increased by 2%. The price increase was supported by the expected improvement in demand in July and some rigid procurement orders. The market is in a tug - of - war between upstream and downstream [1]. - **Macro and demand**: There is an expected increase in production in July, but the actual recovery needs to be observed. The market demand is divided, with a slight decline in power battery orders and good performance in energy storage demand [1]. - **Supply**: The total market inventory continued to rise. The smelter inventory decreased slightly, the downstream inventory decreased slightly, and the trader inventory increased. The price of Australian ore rebounded, and the mid - stream production decreased slightly [1]. - **Trend**: The lithium carbonate futures price rebounded. With high inventory and rising ore prices, there is still room for rebound under the influence of the "anti - involution" theme [1]. Industrial Silicon - **Price**: The futures price fluctuated between 7,700 - 8,200 yuan per ton, and the spot price increased by 450 yuan per ton [1]. - **Supply**: The start - up in Xinjiang decreased significantly, while some enterprises in Yunnan resumed production in the wet season, but the electricity price is higher than that in Sichuan [1]. - **Inventory**: The de - stocking rhythm did not continue, and the social inventory increased by 10,000 tons [1]. - **Demand**: The "anti - involution" of polysilicon boosted the market, and the demand from the organic silicon industry provided support [1]. - **Trend**: The silicon price is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range due to the marginal improvement in demand and the unresolved supply pressure [1]. Polysilicon - **Price**: The price center of polysilicon moved up significantly, mainly due to the emphasis on "anti - involution" in the photovoltaic industry [1]. - **Supply**: With the arrival of the wet season in the southwest, leading enterprises may increase production, and the total output is expected to exceed 100,000 tons [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory increased by 2,000 tons to 272,000 tons, and the number of warehouse receipts increased slightly [1]. - **Demand**: The silicon wafer price continued to decline, the battery sector relied on export orders, the component new orders were insufficient, and the terminal procurement decreased due to policy transition [1]. - **Trend**: The "anti - involution" expectation has not been fully digested, and the theme still has room for development [1]. Recommended Strategies - Short - sell Shanghai tin above 270,000 yuan. In the long - term, the fundamental trend will suppress the high tin price [1]. - Short - sell Shanghai aluminum on rallies. The high open interest may lead to a market reversal, and short - selling can be considered due to weak downstream demand [1].

Economic Overview - The economic outlook has slightly deteriorated, with growth rate forecasts down by 0.3 percentage points and unemployment rate up by 0.1 percentage points compared to March predictions [2] - The PCE and core PCE inflation forecasts have been raised by 0.3 percentage points, with tariffs expected to push prices higher this year [2] Policy Insights - The dot plot indicates a "bimodal distribution" within the Federal Reserve, with one faction focused on the impact of tariffs on prices and another concerned about the economic growth implications [4] - Seven officials predict no rate cuts in 2025, while two expect only one cut this year, and eight anticipate two cuts [4] - Powell emphasized the uncertainty in the economic outlook and stated that no official can make a clear prediction on interest rate movements under current conditions [3][4] Market Strategy - The market reacted moderately to the Fed's meeting, with a neutral trading return at the close [5] - The OIS curve suggests a 48 basis point reduction in rates by 2025, approximately two cuts [5] - U.S. Treasury yields showed minimal changes, with the 2-year yield at 3.94%, 5-year at 3.99%, 10-year at 4.39%, and 30-year at 4.89% [5] - The dollar index increased by 0.06% to 98.878, with the offshore RMB exchange rate stabilizing around 7.19 [6] - The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones indices showed little movement, indicating a cautious market sentiment [7] - The 10-year yield above 4.5% and 5-year yield above 4.1% are seen as suitable entry points, with potential for a technical rebound in the dollar providing selling opportunities [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fourth consecutive meeting without a rate change, reflecting the fragile state of the U.S. economy amid conflicting pressures [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The removal of the phrase "risks of inflation and unemployment are rising" indicates a shift in the Fed's assessment of economic risks from "broad vigilance" to "structural caution" [2]. - The OECD has significantly downgraded the U.S. economic growth forecast for 2025 from 2.2% to 1.6% and raised the inflation forecast to 3.2%, highlighting a typical sign of stagflation risk [2]. - The Fed's latest economic projections show an increase in core inflation expectations for 2025 from 2.8% to 3.1%, while GDP growth expectations have been reduced from 1.7% to 1.4% [2]. Group 2: Impact of Trade Policies - U.S. tariff policies are a major variable affecting economic and policy outlook, with the Fed remaining highly vigilant about the impact of trade conditions on inflation [3]. - Increased tariffs are expected to raise import prices, exacerbating inflation in the short term while suppressing demand, with long-term effects dependent on various complex factors [3]. - The Fed's cautious stance reflects both prudence and a sense of helplessness in the face of trade protectionism, policy uncertainty, and unexpectedly resilient inflation, leading to rising living costs and job market instability for Americans [3].

Group 1 - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings are crucial for setting the federal funds rate, significantly impacting global financial markets, particularly the dollar and gold prices [1] - Understanding the FOMC meetings and their mechanisms is essential for gold investors to seize market opportunities [1] Group 2 - Interest rate changes affect gold prices: during rate hikes, gold prices typically face pressure as the dollar strengthens and opportunity costs rise; during rate cuts, gold becomes more attractive as cash holdings lose appeal [2] - The attractiveness of gold increases during low-interest periods, especially amid rising inflation concerns [2] Group 3 - The company offers specialized sessions during FOMC meetings, providing in-depth analysis of policy impacts and market dynamics [3] - Monitoring key economic indicators such as core inflation and employment data is crucial for understanding market expectations [3] Group 4 - The company boasts a team of experienced analysts focused on FOMC policy trends and gold market research, providing timely and authoritative insights [4] - Emphasis on client fund security through adherence to regulatory standards and advanced data encryption technologies [4] - The FOMC meetings are identified as a core variable driving gold market price fluctuations, highlighting the importance of market analysis and fund security for capturing investment opportunities [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Views - **Crude Oil**: Recent supply and demand conditions for crude oil have improved, and geopolitical risks have sharply increased, leading to a significant price increase. However, OPEC+ has sufficient idle capacity, and future production increases by OPEC+ along with the drag from the trade war on later demand, combined with high geopolitical risks, result in high volatility. It is recommended to operate cautiously and lightly buy crude oil call options [3][4]. - **Coking Coal**: Coking coal opened lower and closed higher today, with intraday pressure. The fundamentals remain loose, and the upward momentum of the market is limited. Attention should be paid to the resistance level around 800 yuan/ton [5]. - **Copper**: The fundamentals of copper have not changed significantly, maintaining the logic of a tight supply outlook and weakening marginal demand. Currently, copper prices fluctuate within a range, and the market is waiting for new guidance [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate industry chain still has a relatively loose fundamental pattern, with price games between upstream and downstream, low trading enthusiasm, and a bearish market sentiment [10][11]. - **Urea**: The supply of urea remains loose, and the demand provides only a phased rebound. The future direction of futures prices will affect market sentiment, and attention should be paid to the Middle East situation and domestic export policies [12]. - **Asphalt**: Asphalt has been following the upward trend of crude oil recently, but due to the high volatility of crude oil, cautious operation is recommended. As it gradually enters the peak season, it is advisable to go long on the 09 - 12 spread of asphalt [13][14]. - **PP**: Although the inventory pressure of PP is still high, considering that China and the US have agreed to implement the results of the economic and trade talks and the significant increase in crude oil prices, it is expected that PP will rebound [15]. - **Plastic**: The inventory pressure of plastic is large, but with the improvement of market sentiment, it is expected to rebound in the near future [16][17]. - **PVC**: Before the demand for PVC is substantially improved, the pressure is high. However, due to the improvement of market sentiment, it is expected to have a slight rebound in the near future [18]. - **Rebar**: Although the supply of rebar has decreased, the weak demand makes it difficult to quickly digest the inventory, limiting the upward space of prices. It is expected to operate weakly in the short term [19][20]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: It is expected that the hot - rolled coil main contract will continue to show a narrow - range oscillating trend in the near future. Attention should be paid to factors such as demand recovery, inventory changes, and macro - economic policy adjustments [21][23]. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Supply**: OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by 411,000 barrels per day in July. However, OPEC+ production growth has fallen short of expectations, and factors such as wildfires in Canada and the deadlock in the US - Iran nuclear deal negotiations have alleviated supply pressure [3]. - **Demand**: US non - farm and CPI data are better than expected, and the market risk appetite has recovered. The US has entered the traditional travel season, and crude oil inventories are decreasing. However, the current performance of refined oil demand and inventory data is poor [3]. Coking Coal - **Supply**: The operating rate of coal washing plants has increased this period, but coal plants are still affected by environmental protection factors and have a reduction expectation. The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal remains normal, but the inventory of coking coal is at a high level, and the supply pressure persists [5]. - **Demand**: The profit per ton of independent coking enterprises has declined significantly. After three rounds of price cuts for coke, there is still an expectation of further price cuts. The steel end remains weak, and the demand from steel mills is expected to decline [5]. Copper - **Supply**: The port inventory of refined copper ore has increased this period, and there is a risk of production reduction for smelters. However, copper production is still at a high level [9]. - **Demand**: Downstream purchasing willingness is insufficient, the operating rate has slowed down, and the demand from the home appliance and real estate industries is weak [9]. Lithium Carbonate - **Supply**: The supply is sufficient, the utilization rate of production capacity is at a high level, and the total inventory has reached a high level [10]. - **Demand**: The terminal market has declined month - on - month, and battery enterprises mainly maintain rigid procurement [10][11]. Urea - **Supply**: The supply remains loose, the daily production changes little, and there are no devices with long - term shutdown plans [12]. - **Demand**: Agricultural demand is expected to last until the end of June, with limited quantity, continuity, and intensity. The raw material price of compound fertilizer plants has risen, but the terminal sales are sluggish [12]. Asphalt - **Supply**: The operating rate of asphalt has rebounded, and the expected production of refineries in June has increased [13]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of most downstream industries have declined, and the national shipment volume has decreased [13]. PP - **Supply**: Some overhaul devices have restarted, and new devices have been put into production, resulting in increased supply and high inventory [15]. - **Demand**: The downstream recovery is slow, and new orders are limited [15]. Plastic - **Supply**: Some overhaul devices have restarted, and new production capacity has been put into operation, with high inventory [16][17]. - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate has declined, and new orders are limited [16][17]. PVC - **Supply**: The operating rate is high, and the supply pressure is large [18]. - **Demand**: The demand has not been substantially improved, and the real estate market is still in the process of improvement [18]. Rebar - **Supply**: Blast furnaces have reduced production for five consecutive weeks, and the operating rate of electric furnaces has continued to decline, resulting in a contraction of supply [19][20]. - **Demand**: Terminal demand has weakened significantly, and the inventory pressure is large [20]. Hot - Rolled Coil - **Supply**: The production is relatively stable, and there is no significant change in supply [21]. - **Demand**: The demand from the real estate, automobile, and manufacturing industries is weak, and the inventory has increased [21][23]. Market Performance - As of the close on June 18, most domestic futures main contracts rose. Crude oil rose by more than 6%, and many varieties such as p - xylene and PTA rose by more than 3%. In terms of decline, polysilicon fell by nearly 2%, and Shanghai lead fell by nearly 1%. In the stock index futures market, most contracts rose slightly, and in the bond futures market, there were both rises and falls [7]. - In terms of capital flow, as of 15:03, funds flowed into varieties such as Shanghai silver 2508 and crude oil 2508, while funds flowed out of contracts such as CSI 1000 2506 and CSI 300 2506 [7][8].

(原油) gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年06月18日 国投期货研究院 隔夜国际油价基本收复此前跌幅，布伦特08合约涨6.47%。伊以冲突仍在持续，在美伊重返谈判泉 前中东供应减量的风险依然存在，霍尔木兹海峡附近电磁波干扰增加，油轮通行量已出现短期回 落。上周美国API原油库存大幅下降1013.3万桶，关注今晚EIA库存表现。原油仍持震荡偏强判断， 投资者仍可继续持有低成本看涨期权应对极端地缘风险。考虑到中东地缘风险升温对中质含统原油 的供应犹动更为直接，中东到中国的油轮运费亦受到支撑，我们相对看涨SC较布伦特的价差。 (责金属) 隔夜黄金震荡，白银延续强势表现。伊以间军事打击延续，目前暂未有明确缓和信号出现，后续发 展尚待观察。本周市场面临美联储议息会议和地缘风险的双击,商品波动率抬升,黄金在前期高点 位置存在阻力，观望为主谨慎参与。 【铜】 隔夜铜价阴线震荡，美国5月零售销售录得年初以来最大降幅，市场关注联储议息会议。国内现铜换 月后沪粤升水低于前期。技术上，伦铜依托MA20日均线稳固震荡,美伦两市显性库存呈强翘翘板效 应,两市合计库存与年初相比减少4-5万吨 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The current soybean meal market presents a mixed situation. In the long - term, the reduction of US soybean planting area and potential tariff policies support the bullish sentiment for far - month soybean meal. It is recommended to buy far - month soybean meal on dips [3]. - Urea prices are currently at a historical low. After wheat harvesting, with the support of agricultural demand and exports, prices may bounce back, but overall remains weak without significant changes in export policies [5]. - Copper prices are fluctuating within a range. They are highly susceptible to global trade trends and Fed inflation and interest - rate cuts. Attention should be paid to recent CPI data and China - US trade negotiations [10]. - The rebound of lithium carbonate is mainly due to improved macro - level sentiment rather than fundamentals. It is advisable to short on rebounds [12]. - Crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate. OPEC+ production increases and supply - demand factors need to be considered [13]. - Asphalt is expected to oscillate at a high level in the near term. It is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread [15]. - PP is expected to oscillate at a low level, with inventory pressure and improved commodity sentiment [16]. - Plastic is expected to oscillate at a low level, facing inventory pressure and slow downstream recovery [18]. - PVC is expected to oscillate at a low level, with high supply and low demand [19]. - Soybean oil futures are expected to be weak in the short - term, pressured by inventory and weak demand [21]. - For coking coal, the supply pressure has eased slightly, but the fundamental relaxation inflection point has not arrived. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing up [22]. - Rebar may continue to rebound in the short - term, but beware of callbacks. Track steel mill production cuts and inventory data [24]. - Hot - rolled coil is expected to be weak and oscillate in the short - term, with a pattern of increasing supply and weakening demand [25]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Hot Commodities Soybean Meal - The 09 contract of soybean meal opened higher and rose today, with a closing increase of 0.93%. In the US, soybean planting is nearly finished and weather is favorable. In China, as of June 6, soybean inventory increased by 4.7% week - on - week, and soybean meal inventory increased by 28.36% week - on - week [3]. Urea - Urea prices opened low and continued to decline today. Supply is stable, with daily production around 200,000 tons. Demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating. It may rebound after wheat harvesting, but overall remains weak [4][5]. Futures Market Summary - As of June 11, domestic futures contracts showed mixed performance. Industrial silicon rose over 2%, while palm oil and container shipping to Europe fell over 2% [7]. Core Views on Individual Commodities Copper - Copper prices fluctuated within a range. Supply is tight with reduced port inventory and potential smelter cuts. Demand is in a downward cycle, and prices are affected by trade and Fed policies [10]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened low and rose, with a nearly 2% increase. Spot prices increased slightly. The rebound is due to macro - sentiment, not fundamentals. Be cautious when chasing up [11][12]. Crude Oil - Crude oil prices rebounded due to multiple factors. OPEC+ will increase production in July. Supply and demand factors are complex, and prices are expected to oscillate [13]. Asphalt - Asphalt supply increased, with a 3.6 - percentage - point increase in the start - up rate last week. Demand is mixed, and prices are expected to oscillate at a high level. It is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread [14][15]. PP - PP downstream start - up rate decreased. Supply increased with new device production and restarted units. Inventory pressure is high, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level [16]. Plastic - Plastic start - up rate increased, but downstream start - up rate decreased. Inventory is high, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level [17][18]. PVC - PVC supply increased, while demand is weak. Inventory is still high, and prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [19]. Soybean Oil - The 09 contract of soybean oil opened low and declined, with a closing decrease of 0.93%. US soybean growth data is mixed, and domestic inventory is increasing. Futures are expected to be weak in the short - term [20][21]. Coking Coal - Coking coal prices rebounded slightly. Supply pressure eased, but demand is weak. The fundamental relaxation inflection point has not arrived, and it is recommended to be cautious when chasing up [22]. Rebar - Rebar prices rose 0.67% today. Supply is still loose, demand is in the off - season, and inventory is decreasing slowly. It may continue to rebound in the short - term, but beware of callbacks [23][24]. Hot - rolled Coil - Hot - rolled coil prices rose 0.78% today. Supply pressure increased, demand is in the off - season, and cost support weakened. It is expected to be weak and oscillate in the short - term [25].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - For gold 2508, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "oscillation and weakening", and the reference view is "wait - and - see" due to the easing of Sino - US relations which is negative for gold prices. For gold in general, the intraday view is "oscillation and weakening", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "wait - and - see". The core logic includes a rapid rebound in futures prices this week indicating strong long - position support, geopolitical tensions in the India - Pakistan conflict which are positive for gold prices, and the Fed's concerns about the economic situation after the May interest - rate meeting [1][3]. - For nickel 2506, the short - term view is "decline", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "oscillation and weakening", and the reference view is "wait - and - see" because of a strong upstream nickel ore market and a weak downstream stainless - steel market. For nickel in general, the intraday view is "oscillation and weakening", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "wait - and - see". The core logic involves the overall pressure on non - ferrous metals after the holiday, strong supply at the industrial level with increased supply costs due to the Indonesian government's PNBP policy, weak demand with slow inventory reduction of stainless steel at a high level, and technical pressure on nickel prices [1][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Movement and Views**: The short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation and weakening", with a reference view of "wait - and - see" [1][3]. - **Core Logic**: This week, the rapid rebound of futures prices shows strong long - position support. The escalation of the India - Pakistan conflict is positive for gold prices. After the Fed's May interest - rate meeting, the Fed maintained the interest rate, expressed concerns about the economic situation, and pointed out increased risks of rising unemployment and inflation. Technically, pay attention to the 3400 mark for London gold and the 800 - yuan mark for Shanghai gold [3]. Nickel - **Price Movement and Views**: The short - term view is "decline", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation and weakening", with a reference view of "wait - and - see" [1][4]. - **Core Logic**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel oscillated during the day yesterday and opened lower at night, breaking through the 124,000 - yuan mark. After the holiday, non - ferrous metals were under pressure, and nickel followed the downward trend. At the industrial level, supply is strong with increased supply costs due to the Indonesian government's PNBP policy, while demand is weak with slow inventory reduction of stainless steel at a high level and strong expectations of production cuts. Technically, after the holiday, nickel prices faced technical pressure when rebounding to the 125,000 - yuan level, and pay attention to the low - point support in December last year [4].