1. 公开市场操作 央行公告称，7月31日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了2832亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.40%，投标量2832亿元，中标量2832亿元。Wind数据显 示，当日3310亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净回笼478亿元。 （*数据来源：Wind-央行动态PBOC） 2. 资金面 央行在公开市场转为净回笼，不过对银行间市场周四资金面冲击不大。受跨月因素影响，存款类机构隔夜回购加权利率（DR001）上行逾8个bp，7天期则 上行超3个bp。 海外方面，最新美国隔夜融资担保利率为4.36%。 （IMM） // 债市综述 // （*数据来源：Wind-国际货币资金情绪指数、资金综合屏） 3. 同业存单 全国和主要股份制银行一年期同业存单最新成交在1.64%附近，较上日下行超2个bp。 （*数据来源：Wind-同业存单-发行结果） 4. 银行间主要利率债收益率集体下行。 | （*数据来源：Wind-成交统计BMW） | | --- | 5. 近期城投债（AAA）各期限利差走势及数据 （*数据来源：Wind-利差分析） 6. 国债期货收盘集体上涨 30年期主力合约涨0.57% 2年期主力合约涨0.0 ...

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 07 月 31 日 [Table_Title] 7 月 PMI ，淡季偏淡 7 月 31 日， 统计局发布 7 月 PMI。制造业 PMI 49.3%，预期 49.7%，前值 49.7%。非制造业 PMI 50.1%，前值 50.5%。关注以下几个方面： 第一，制造业生产和新订单均回落。7 月制造业新订单环比下降 0.8 个百分点至 49.4%，生产回落 0.5 个百 分点至 50.5%，分别拖累制造业 PMI下滑 0.24、0.13 个百分点，是 7 月制造业 PMI下滑的主要拖累因素。对比 往年同期降幅，2016-2024 年（剔除 2020/2022）新订单和生产的平均降幅分别为 0.14、0.37 个百分点。由于 PMI在数据处理过程中已剔除季节性，今年 7 月相对更弱的表现，指向制造业放缓可能受到常规季节性因素之外 的影响，一方面是 6 月对美出口修复带来的环比高基数，另一方面是部分地区高温、暴雨洪涝灾害的规模可能超 出往年同期。 第二，外需也回落。7 月制造业新出口订单回落 0.4 个百分点至 47.1%（6 月反弹 0.2 个百 ...

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Insights - In July 2025, the manufacturing PMI decreased to 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month[6] - The production index for July was 50.5%, reflecting a seasonal decline of 0.5 percentage points[13] - The new orders index fell to 49.4%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points, indicating a stronger-than-seasonal decline in demand[13] Group 2: Sector Performance - The construction business activity index was 50.6%, down 2.2 percentage points, influenced by weak real estate demand and slowing fiscal spending on infrastructure projects[27] - The services business activity index remained stable at 50.0%, with tourism-related sectors performing well during the summer[25] - In key industries, the equipment manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, while the consumer goods industry PMI dropped to 49.5%, down 0.9 percentage points[12] Group 3: Raw Material Prices and Inventory - The main raw material purchase price index rose to 51.5%, an increase of 3.1 percentage points, marking the first rise above the critical point since March 2025[19] - The procurement index fell to 49.5%, down 0.7 percentage points, indicating reduced purchasing activity due to insufficient domestic demand[21] - The raw material inventory index decreased to 47.7%, down 0.3 percentage points, suggesting continued reduction in inventory levels[21] Group 4: Policy and Economic Outlook - The central political bureau emphasized the need for sustained macroeconomic policy efforts, including timely fiscal measures[29] - A total of 69 billion yuan was allocated in July for consumer support initiatives, with additional funds expected in October[29] - Urban renewal projects are anticipated to boost investment, particularly in municipal infrastructure and renovation of old neighborhoods[29]

证券研究报告 固收点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 07 月 31 日 ——2025 年 7 月 PMI 点评 投资要点： 证券分析师 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 马赫 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 mahe@huayuanstock.com 制造业 PMI 季节性回落，价格指数回升 7 月 PMI 季节性回落，景气度有所下降。7 月制造业 PMI 环比下降 0.4pct 至 49.3%， 2021-2024 年的 7 月制造业 PMI 平均环比下降 0.38pct，今年 7 月下降或主要受部 分地区高温、暴雨、台风灾害等因素影响。7 月产需相关指数有所收缩，价格指数持 续回升。7 月非制造业商务活动指数为 50.1%，环比下降 0.4pct，服务业商务活动指 数和建筑业商务活动指数分别为 50.0%和 50.6%，较上月分别-0.1pct/-2.2pct。7 月综合 PMI 产出指数为 50.2%，较上月-0.5pct，仍位于扩张区间，显示企业生产经 营活动总体扩张虽有所减缓，但经济内生动力持续 ...

Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for July is at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from June, indicating a weak recovery and potential peak in economic growth momentum[1] - The new orders index fell to 49.4%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, entering a contraction zone, suggesting tightening market demand[13] - The comprehensive PMI output index is at 50.2%, down 0.5 percentage points from last month, still indicating overall expansion in production activities[27] Sector Performance - The production index for July is at 50.5%, a decline of 0.5 percentage points, but remains in the expansion zone for three consecutive months[3] - Equipment manufacturing PMI is at 50.3% and high-tech manufacturing PMI is at 50.6%, both above the critical point, indicating continued expansion in these sectors[1] - The consumer goods industry PMI is at 49.5%, down 0.9 percentage points, while the high-energy-consuming industries PMI is at 48.0%, up 0.2 percentage points, showing mixed performance across sectors[1] External Trade and Demand - The new export orders index is at 47.1%, down 0.6 percentage points, reflecting cautious attitudes among foreign trade enterprises due to uncertainties in tariffs[16] - Port cargo throughput in July increased by 10.9% year-on-year, indicating some resilience in actual export volumes despite potential sustainability issues[17] Price Trends - The main raw material purchase price index rose to 51.5%, up 3.1 percentage points, marking the first rise above the critical point since March, indicating improved market price levels[18] - The factory price index is at 48.3%, up 2.1 percentage points, suggesting a slight recovery in manufacturing prices[18]

2025 年 07 月 31 日 宏 观 研 究 内外需震荡下行 PMI 走弱，能否快速迎来反弹？ ——PMI 点评（2025.7） 投资要点： 宏 观 点 评 财政补贴力度边际减弱、首轮关税缓和期临近以及部分地区极端天气 影响多重背景下，7 月制造业 PMI 指数再度回落。7 月制造业 PMI 回落 0.4 个百分点至 49.3%，连续第四个月位于荣枯线之下并创近半年来新低，产 需两侧同步回落，呈现以下结构性特征：1）7 月新订单指数大幅回落 0.8 个百分点至 49.4%，结构性指数中，消费品行业大幅回落 0.9 个百分点至 49.5，主因当前房地产市场震荡下行的趋势仍在延续，以汽车、家具家电 等为代表的后地产周期耐用品消费需求释放主要依靠财政补贴，但年初以 来财政靠前发力，多地消费品补贴额度提前下达使用，至 7 月初部分地区 出现财政补贴暂停的情况，尽管后续第二批资金下达，但仍对消费产生冲 击，也再度侧面凸显财政补贴延续的重要性；2）7 月新出口订单指数回落 0.6 个百分点至 47.1%，结构性指数中与出口相关度较高的高技术制造业、 装备制造业分别下行 0.3、1.1 个百分点，显示中美第一轮贸易谈判 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观研究 gszqdatemark 2025 07 31 年 月 日 宏观点评 7 月 PMI 超季节性回落的背后 事件：2025 年 7 月制造业 PMI 为 49.3%（前值 49.7%）；非制造业 PMI 为 50.1%（前值 50.5%）。 核心观点：7 月制造业 PMI 再度下行、弱于季节性，除价格反弹、多数 分项回落，服务业 PMI 也略有回落。往后看，继续提示：7 月政治局会 议指向短期将更注重抓落实，后续应会有新政策、但并非强刺激、更可 能是"托而不举"，一旦形势恶化也会很快出台增量政策，短期紧盯中美 贸易谈判进展。 1、7 月制造业和非制造业 PMI 均回落，制造业 PMI 弱于季节性。7 月 制造业 PMI 为 49.3%，较前值回落 0.4 个百分点，弱于季节性（2015- 2024 年 7 月 PMI 环比变动中位数为-0.2 个点），连续第 4 个月处于收缩 区间。7 月非制造业 PMI 回落 0.4 个百分点至 50.1%，其中服务业、建 筑业 PMI 分别回落 0.1、2.2 个百分点。7 月综合 PMI 产出指数回落 0.5 个百分点至 50.2%，指向整体经 ...

Group 1: PMI Overview - In July 2025, the manufacturing PMI decreased to 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity[1] - The construction business activity index was at 50.6%, down from 52.8%, while the services business activity index remained stable at 50.0%, slightly down from 50.1%[1] Group 2: Production and Demand Factors - The production index for July was 50.5%, down from 51%, while the new orders index fell to 49.4% from 50.2%, indicating a contraction in new orders[2] - Extreme weather events in July, including heavy rains and heatwaves, impacted outdoor construction activities, contributing to the decline in production and new orders[2] - Passenger car sales dropped by 21.9% month-on-month in July, reflecting weakened consumer demand post the June shopping festival[2] Group 3: Price Indices and Inventory - The PMI output price index rose by 2.1 percentage points to 48.3%, and the raw material purchase price index increased by 3.1 percentage points to 51.5%, indicating rising input costs[3] - The gap between raw material prices and finished product prices widened to 3.2 percentage points, up from 2.2 percentage points, which is detrimental to corporate profit recovery[3] - The inventory indices for finished goods and raw materials both declined, with finished goods at 47.4% and raw materials at 47.7%, indicating a contraction in inventory levels[4] Group 4: Business Sentiment and Future Outlook - Small enterprises faced significant pressure, with their PMI dropping to 46.4%, while large and medium enterprises saw slight increases[4] - The outlook for future demand remains cautious, with businesses responding primarily to short-term orders and maintaining low inventory levels[5] - The political bureau meeting emphasized consolidating economic recovery and addressing prominent issues, with a focus on nurturing emerging industries and avoiding debt-driven growth[5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - In July, due to entering the traditional production off - season and factors like high - temperature, rainstorm and flood disasters in some areas, the business activities of enterprises slowed down. The three major PMIs declined but remained above the critical point, and the overall economic output in China continued to expand. However, demand was weak in the short - term, and production and price trends were complex. The export's role in driving the economy was expected to weaken in the second half of the year [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Overall Economic Situation - China's official manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3% (expected 49.7%, previous value 49.7%); non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1% (expected 50.2%, previous value 50.5%); comprehensive PMI was 50.2% (previous value 50.7%). The three major indexes all declined, indicating a slowdown in economic prosperity, but the overall economic output remained in the expansion range [1]. 3.2 Investment - Real estate investment remained weak. Although sales and capital sources improved, investment - side policies were restricted. Infrastructure investment slowed down due to factors like high - temperature and flood disasters affecting construction progress, despite accelerated special bond issuance. Manufacturing investment slowed down but continued to grow at a high speed, and short - term restocking motivation of manufacturing enterprises declined [2]. 3.3 Consumption - The growth rate of consumption slowed down, but its driving effect on the economy remained strong [2]. 3.4 Export - Exports maintained resilience due to the mitigation of external shocks, but as the US restocking demand weakened in the future, export growth might slow down, and its driving effect on the economy was expected to weaken in the second half of the year [2]. 3.5 Manufacturing - The manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, lower than expected and the previous value. New order index and production index both declined, indicating a slowdown in market demand and a continued but decelerated expansion in production. New export order index declined, showing a slowdown in external demand, while import demand rebounded. Price indexes rebounded, and both finished - product and raw - material inventory indexes declined [3][4]. 3.6 Non - manufacturing - The non - manufacturing business activity index in July was 50.1%, still above the critical point. The service industry business activity index was 50.0%, slightly down. Some service - related industries were in a high - level prosperity range, while real estate and other industries had weak prosperity. The construction industry business activity index was 50.6%, down 2.2 percentage points. Most service enterprises were optimistic about the market, while the construction industry's market expectation declined [5]. 3.7 Comprehensive - The comprehensive PMI output index in July was 50.2%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that overall business activities of enterprises in China continued to expand but at a slower pace [6].

国债期货日报 2025/7/31 端在期货 | | 7月31日 20:30 美国7月失业率 美国7月季调后非农就业人口(万人) | | --- | --- | | 重点关注 | 8月1日 20:30 美国至7月26日当周初请失业金人数(万人) 美国6月核心PCE物价指数年率 | 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 备注：T为10年期国债期货，TF为5年期国债期货，TS为2年期国债期货 研究员： 廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F30825507 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0020723 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完 整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否 符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。 如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 项目 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | ...