整体来看，金价近期受到美元走软、贸易谈判的不确定性、通胀预期的升温以及地缘政治风险的加剧等多重干扰，短期表现或将更加复杂多变。本周将公布 美国通胀方面相关数据，或为金价提供更多线索，交易者重点关注周三及周四公布的CPI及PPI数据。 技术面： 基本面： 周二（6月10日）亚盘时段，现货黄金回吐隔夜反弹空间并维持低位震荡，目前暂交投于3311美元附近徘徊等待更多指引。周一金价震荡反弹0.4%，收报 3325.45美元/盎司附近，金价的这一波上涨不仅受到美元走软的推动，还与中美贸易谈判、全球经济不确定性以及通胀预期升温密切相关。美元指数下跌 0.2%，使得以美元计价的黄金对持有其他货币的投资者更具吸引力。而通胀预期是近期金价上涨的另一关键驱动因素。市场普遍预期，周三公布的美国消 费者物价指数(CPI)数据将显示核心CPI同比上涨2.9%，较前值略有回升。 美元走软的原因部分源于市场对中美贸易谈判结果的观望情绪，以及上周五美国就业数据好于预期后市场动能的短暂回落。就业数据的强劲表现缓解了部分 经济衰退的担忧，但并未完全消除市场对美联储未来政策的疑虑。经济疲软、潜在的降息预期以及风险偏好的下降正促使投资者转向黄金。尤 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in gold prices is driven by multiple factors including a weaker dollar, uncertainties in trade negotiations, rising inflation expectations, and heightened geopolitical risks [1][3][4] Group 1: Gold Price Movements - Gold is currently trading around $3315.04 per ounce, having rebounded 0.4% to close at approximately $3325.45 per ounce on Monday [1] - The fluctuations in gold prices are often inversely related to the dollar index, which fell by 0.2% on Monday, making gold more attractive to investors holding other currencies [1] - The recent rebound in gold prices occurred after briefly hitting a one-week low, driven by increased buying interest due to the dollar's weakness [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The strong performance of U.S. employment data has alleviated some recession concerns but has not fully resolved market uncertainties regarding future Federal Reserve policies [1][3] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased by 3.6 basis points to 4.474%, while the 30-year yield fell by 1.6 basis points to 4.947% [3] - The 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) yield indicates a market expectation of an average annual inflation rate of 2.3% over the next decade [3] Group 3: Geopolitical and Market Dynamics - Geopolitical instability, such as social unrest in the U.S., enhances gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [3] - The hardline stance of the Trump administration on trade and immigration may further increase global market uncertainties, prompting more investors to turn to gold [3] - Upcoming U.S. Treasury auctions for various maturities could influence market expectations regarding inflation and interest rates, potentially impacting gold prices [3][4] Group 4: Future Outlook - Short-term fluctuations in gold prices will be influenced by developments in U.S.-China trade negotiations and upcoming U.S. CPI data [4] - A breakthrough in trade talks or lower-than-expected inflation data could exert downward pressure on gold prices [4] - Long-term support for gold prices is expected to come from ongoing global economic uncertainties, central bank gold purchases, and increasing social unrest [4]

若后市市场上破3338.00点位则可介入多单，上方目标可看向3348.00-3358.00。（止损为5.00美元/盎司空间） 国际贸易紧张局势有所缓和，市场避险情绪回落，目前市场正在关注中美贸易谈判进展情况，现货黄金市场昨日维 持在小区间内震荡，周一市场最低至3293.60美元/盎司，最高至3338.25美元/盎司，最终收盘于3325.39美元/盎司。 对于后市热点，需要继续关注贸易关税情况，同时要密切关注地缘政治的发展情况以及美联储未来货币政策的动向 和美债收益率情况。 亚洲早盘策略： 现货黄金市场 小时图目前处于震荡阶段，短线15分钟图处于震荡阶段，震荡区间3320.00-3338.00，操作上可在这个区间高抛低 吸。 若后市市场下破3320.00点位则可介入空单，下方目标可看向3310.00-3300.00美元/盎司。 交易风险提示：任何投资都存在风险，包括资金损失的风险。该建议不构成具体的投资建议，投资者应根据自己的 风险承受能力、投资目标和市场情况做出决策。 现货白银市场 小时图目前处于主升情绪，短线15分钟图周期处于震荡阶段，震荡区间36.530-36.900，操作上可在这个区间内高抛 低吸。 若 ...

摘要周二(6月10日)亚盘，现货黄金震荡下行，目前交投于3304.48美元/盎司，跌幅0.61%。目前投资者 正在密切关注中美贸易谈判、俄乌冲突以及最新的美国内乱事件。 周二(6月10日)亚盘，现货黄金震荡下行，目前交投于3304.48美元/盎司，跌幅0.61%。目前投资者正在 密切关注中美贸易谈判、俄乌冲突以及最新的美国内乱事件。 【要闻速递】 据外媒报道，洛杉矶正经历自1992年罗德尼 金事件以来最严重的社会动荡。自6月6日联邦移民与海关 执法局(ICE)对拉美裔社区展开突袭行动后，抗议活动已演变为持续多日的暴力冲突。最新进展显示，6 月10日市中心再度爆发大规模示威，抗议者纵火焚烧车辆、冲击联邦机构，警方逮捕31人并宣布进入紧 急状态。派拉蒙市等拉美裔聚居区成为冲突核心，执法人员与抗议者互掷石块与催泪弹，现场宛如战 区。 这场危机暴露了美国社会的深层裂痕。特朗普政府援引《叛乱法》绕过加州政府，直接派遣2000名国民 警卫队进驻，并威胁动用彭德尔顿海军陆战队基地的现役部队。这种联邦与州权的对抗，不仅加剧了美 国社会分裂，更对经济造成直接冲击：洛杉矶港货运量因骚乱下降12%，旅游业预计2025年损失超125 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated neutral [2][4][7] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The current tariff policy has high uncertainty, and there is a strong expectation of a bumper cotton harvest in Xinjiang in the new year. The domestic market has entered the consumption off - season, and Zhengzhou cotton may bottom out again after a short - term rebound. The core contradiction lies in the time when downstream demand recession spreads to the upstream [2] - Zhengzhou sugar generally follows the trend of raw sugar. The 2025/2026 global sugar supply is expected to shift from shortage to surplus, and Zhengzhou sugar may continue to weaken in the medium - to - long term [4][5] - Macro - level positive factors drive the pulp price to recover from the bottom, but the tariff uncertainty is still strong. As the off - season approaches and the terminal demand outlook is pessimistic, the pulp price may continue to oscillate at a low level [7] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - The closing price of the cotton 2509 contract was 13,495 yuan/ton, up 135 yuan/ton (+1.01%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,485 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 14,620 yuan/ton, up 59 yuan/ton. As of the end of May, the national commercial cotton inventory was 3.4587 million tons, a decrease of 693,900 tons (-16.71%) from the previous month and 315,400 tons (-8.36%) lower than the same period last year [1] Market Analysis - Macroscopically, the Sino - US trade negotiations sent positive signals, boosting the domestic cotton price. The US cotton sowing progress is slow, but the rainfall in the main producing areas has improved the drought. The international cotton price is expected to oscillate in the short term. Domestically, the commercial cotton inventory is accelerating destocking, but the new - year planting area is increasing, and the downstream demand is in the off - season, with insufficient support on the demand side [2] Sugar Market News and Important Data - The closing price of the sugar 2509 contract was 5734 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton (-0.02%) from the previous day. The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 6080 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton, and in Kunming, Yunnan was 5900 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton. In the 2024/2025 sugar - crushing season in Guangxi, the cumulative sugar production was 6.465 million tons, an increase of 283,600 tons year - on - year. As of the end of May, the cumulative sugar sales were 4.6453 million tons, an increase of 537,100 tons year - on - year [3] Market Analysis - The Brazilian sugar production in the first half of May decreased year - on - year, but the sugar - making ratio rebounded. The production in India and Thailand in the new season is expected to increase, and the global sugar supply is expected to shift from shortage to surplus. Domestically, the sugar sales and production data are good, but the long - term import pressure is increasing, and Zhengzhou sugar may follow the raw sugar to weaken [4][5] Pulp Market News and Important Data - The closing price of the pulp 2507 contract was 5394 yuan/ton, up 114 yuan/ton (+2.16%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 6160 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5325 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. The import wood pulp spot market price was generally stable, with some fluctuations [5] Market Analysis - The macro - level sentiment improved, boosting the pulp market. The Arauco long - term contract price has been continuously lowered, and the supply is expected to be loose. The domestic port inventory is at a high level, and the downstream demand is weak. The pulp price is difficult to rise in the short term [6]

2025 年 06 月 10 日 商 品 研 究 豆粕：天气正常、美豆收跌，连粕或跟随回调 豆一：现货稳定，盘面仍震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | 收盘价 | （日盘） 涨 跌 | 收盘价 （夜盘） 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2507（元/吨） | 4138 -4（-0.10%） | 4145 +4（+0.10%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2509 （元/吨） | 3019 +28（+0.94%） | 3015 +4（+0.13%） | | | CBOT大豆07（美分/蒲） | 1055.75 -2.25（-0.21%） | | | | CBOT豆粕07（美元/短吨） | 295.2 -0.6（-0.20%） | n a | | | | 豆粕 | （43%） | | | | 较昨持平至+20； 2870～2930， 100/-80/-30/-20， 较昨-10或持平； | 现货基差M2509-120/-90， 较昨-10； 7月M2509- 7 ...

Cost Analysis - The price of silicon stone at the factory in Qinghai and Ningxia is between 170-230 RMB/ton, while the price of Shenfu Lan coal is stable at 570-640 RMB/ton[2] - The current cash-inclusive ex-factory price for 72 silicon iron is 5100-5200 RMB/ton, and for 75 silicon iron, it is 5700-5850 RMB/ton[2] - The operating rate of 126 sample silicon iron plants is 47.97%, a decrease of 0.39% week-on-week[2] Inventory and Market Sentiment - Silicon iron warehouse receipts decreased by 114 to 15462, with total receipts and forecasts down by 570 tons to 77710 tons[2] - Manganese silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 247 to 100765, while forecasts increased by 1400 to 1800, leading to a total increase of 5765 tons[8] Technical Analysis - The Wenhua Commodity Index closed at 155.97, down 0.07%, with a net capital inflow of 3.922 billion RMB[3] - The main manganese silicon contract closed at 5552, up 0.04%, with a capital outflow of 47.67 million RMB[9] Market Outlook - The market is experiencing a low-level wide fluctuation with a slight upward shift in focus on price procurement opportunities[4] - Key factors include downward cost potential, supply-demand mismatch, and macroeconomic pressures from US-China trade negotiations[5]

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price is expected to maintain a bullish outlook despite fluctuations, with potential support levels identified for future buying opportunities [1][5][10]. Market Performance - On June 9, gold opened at $3311.77 per ounce, reached a low of $3293.69, and closed at $3325.39, marking a daily increase of $13.62 or 0.41% [1]. - The daily trading range was $44.23, indicating significant volatility [1]. Influencing Factors - The U.S. dollar index is experiencing downward pressure due to internal conflicts and geopolitical risks, which has contributed to a rebound in gold prices [3][8]. - The market is currently cautious, with a lack of clear driving factors, and gold's performance is expected to be volatile until it breaks through short-term moving averages [3][7]. Technical Analysis - The monthly chart indicates that gold prices remain above the 5-month moving average, maintaining a bullish trend despite recent volatility [10]. - The weekly chart shows that while bullish momentum has weakened, key support levels are still intact, suggesting potential buying opportunities on dips [12]. - The daily chart highlights that gold has not broken below key support levels, indicating that any pullbacks could present buying opportunities [14]. Economic Indicators - Upcoming U.S. CPI data is anticipated to influence market sentiment, with expectations of rising inflation potentially benefiting gold prices [5][8]. - The overall economic environment, including rising fiscal deficits and geopolitical tensions, continues to support gold as a safe-haven asset [8].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the bond market and the broader financial market dynamics in the context of China's economic environment and U.S.-China relations [1][2][5][8][15]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Market Conditions**: The market is currently in a state of marginal contraction, with various asset classes underperforming. Investors are advised to select relatively better assets through a process of elimination, favoring bonds over stocks, particularly value-oriented equities [2][5][9]. 2. **Investment Strategy**: The recommended investment strategy involves concentrating positions in bonds, adjusting duration based on risk appetite. Higher risk tolerance suggests longer duration, while lower risk tolerance suggests shorter duration. The focus is on waiting for market dips to capitalize on value opportunities [9][32]. 3. **Debt Growth Trends**: The growth rate of liabilities in the real sector increased to 9.0% in April, primarily due to front-loaded fiscal measures. A decline in this growth rate is expected in June, with a slight expansion in July, followed by a return to contraction in August [10][11][12]. 4. **Impact of U.S.-China Trade Talks**: Expectations surrounding U.S.-China trade negotiations have temporarily boosted risk appetite. However, the likelihood of systemic improvement from these talks is considered low. If no significant events occur, the market is expected to revert to a contraction phase, favoring fixed income over equities [8][15]. 5. **Artificial Intelligence Influence**: AI has significantly impacted market sentiment, with heightened interest in AI technologies boosting risk appetite. However, concerns about AI replacing human roles limit its potential for large-scale development [6][7]. 6. **Financial Sector Performance**: The financial sector has shown slight improvements in April and May, but the extent of this improvement is limited. The actual yield in the financial sector remains low, with a debt growth rate of approximately 4% corresponding to a yield of about 1.6% [13][14]. 7. **Government Policy and Economic Growth**: The role of monetary policy is diminishing, while fiscal policy is gaining importance due to declining profitability and the risk of liquidity traps. The focus should shift towards fiscal measures rather than relying solely on monetary policy [21][22]. 8. **Global Economic Trends**: Since 2011, the global economic growth center has been declining, leading to increased protectionism. The U.S. economy is expected to revert to lower growth rates, which may further exacerbate protectionist sentiments [19]. Other Important but Overlooked Content - **Debt Market Dynamics**: The records highlight the deep inversion in the bond markets between the U.S. and China, indicating that China's capital controls help mitigate outflow pressures, making it less susceptible to external shocks [17]. - **Market Reactions to Policy Changes**: Historical data shows that after interest rate cuts, both bonds and stocks tend to experience adjustments, indicating that liquidity expansion or policy easing is challenging in the current environment [30]. - **Investment in Growth vs. Value**: While value-oriented equities are recommended, there is a suggestion to consider growth indices for those willing to take on more risk, particularly in a favorable risk appetite environment [32][33].

投资咨询业务资格 证监发【2014】217号 关税扰动多变，铜铝缺乏方向 ——铜铝周报2025.06.09 作者： 刘培洋 联系方式：0371-58620083 电子邮箱：liupy_qh@ccnew.com 执业证书编号：F0290318 投资咨询编号：Z0011155 本期观点 | 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险提示 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 1、宏观面：中美贸易谈判释放利多信号，美国最新非农数据好于预 | 沪铜2507合约 | | | | 期，市场降息预期下降。 | 上方参考压力 | 1、国内外宏 | | | 2、基本面：国内5月电解铜产量超预期增加，但预计从6月开始受检 | 位80000元/吨 | 观政策及经 | | | 修计划影响持续下降。受美国关税政策影响，LME去库延续，全球库 | | | | 铜 | 存继续转移至美国市场，结构性紧张或支撑铜价。 | 一线，下方参 | 济数据变化； | | | 3、整体逻辑：铜矿紧张预期和美国对铜征收关税预期继续支持铜价， | 考支撑位 | 2、国外铜矿 | | | | 76000元/吨一 | 供应因素。 | | ...