1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Oscillating with a slight upward bias [8] - **Protein Meal**: Oscillating [9] - **Corn/Starch**: Oscillating with a slight downward bias [10] - **Hogs**: Oscillating [11] - **Natural Rubber**: Oscillating [13] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillating [15] - **Cotton**: Oscillating [16] - **Sugar**: Long - term: oscillating with a downward bias; Short - term: maintain the view of shorting on rebounds [17] - **Pulp**: Oscillating [18] - **Logs**: Oscillating with a slight downward bias [19] 2. Core Views of the Report The report analyzes multiple agricultural products, including oils and fats, protein meal, corn/starch, hogs, rubber, cotton, sugar, pulp, and logs. It provides insights into their market trends, supply - demand relationships, and price outlooks. For example, the hog market shows a pattern of "weak present + strong future" due to policy - induced production - cut expectations; the oils and fats market is expected to be oscillating with a slight upward bias considering overseas bio - diesel demand and domestic export expectations [11][8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - **Industry Information**: MPOA data shows a 9.01% month - on - month increase in estimated Malaysian palm oil production in July. The overall estimated production is 1.84 million tons. ITS and AmSpec data indicate a decline in July's Malaysian palm oil exports [8]. - **Logic**: Due to the expected high yield of US soybeans and concerns about demand, US soybeans fell on Tuesday. Domestic oils showed a differentiated trend, with soybean oil being stronger. The global and domestic supply - demand situation of different oils varies, with soybean oil having inventory increases and export expectations, palm oil facing inventory pressure, and rapeseed oil having high inventory [8]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, palm oil and soybean oil are likely to be stronger, influenced by the expected increase in overseas bio - diesel demand and domestic soybean oil export expectations [8]. 3.1.2 Protein Meal - **Industry Information**: On August 6, 2025, international soybean trade premiums and discounts showed different trends. The average profit of Chinese imported soybean crushing increased [9]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the good growth of US soybeans and the expected high yield, along with changes in trade relations and CFTC net short positions, affect the market. Domestically, in the short - term, due to the peak season of aquaculture, rapeseed meal is stronger than soybean meal. In the long - term, there is a potential supply gap in the fourth quarter [9]. - **Outlook**: In the next two weeks, the inventory of soybean meal may reach a peak. Spot and basis prices may oscillate at a low level. The far - month contracts are expected to strengthen [9]. 3.1.3 Corn/Starch - **Industry Information**: The average domestic corn price and the closing price of the main contract decreased [10]. - **Logic**: On the supply side, there are differences in the judgment of channel inventory, and the auction transaction rate of imported corn is low. On the demand side, downstream acceptance of high - priced grains is low. Policy - wise, the transaction rate and premium of imported corn are decreasing [10]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, there is uncertainty in the old - crop inventory reduction. After the new - crop is listed, there is a downward pressure on prices [10]. 3.1.4 Hogs - **Industry Information**: On August 6, the spot price of hogs in Henan decreased slightly, while the futures closing price increased [11]. - **Logic**: The proposed meeting by the China Animal Husbandry Association to discuss sow production cuts triggered market sentiment. In the short - term, large - scale farms are actively reducing weight and inventory, but the inventory of secondary - fattening by smallholders is high. In the medium - term, the supply is expected to increase. In the long - term, policies may lead to a reduction in production capacity [11]. - **Outlook**: The hog market shows large fluctuations. The spot and near - month contracts are under pressure, while the far - month contracts are influenced by production - cut expectations [11]. 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - **Industry Information**: The prices of various rubber products in Qingdao Free Trade Zone remained stable, and the prices of raw materials in the Thai market increased slightly [13]. - **Logic**: The macro - environment is favorable, and there is some speculative sentiment in the market. The supply is limited due to the rainy season, and the demand is relatively stable in the short - term [13]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, it follows the overall commodity sentiment, and attention should be paid to capital sentiment [13]. 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Industry Information**: The prices of butadiene rubber and butadiene showed different trends [15]. - **Logic**: The BR futures rose slightly, driven by natural rubber and the macro - environment, and supported by the tight supply of butadiene. However, the fundamental driving force is not clear [15]. - **Outlook**: It will generally maintain an oscillating range, and attention should be paid to device changes [15]. 3.1.7 Cotton - **Industry Information**: As of August 6, the number of registered warrants and the closing price of Zhengzhou cotton increased slightly [16]. - **Logic**: In the 2025/2026 season, the global cotton supply is expected to be abundant. The downstream demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is at a low level compared to the same period. The price is oscillating within a range [16]. - **Outlook**: It will oscillate within the range of 13,500 - 14,300 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the 11 - 1 reverse spread [16]. 3.1.8 Sugar - **Industry Information**: On August 6, the closing price of Zhengzhou sugar decreased [17]. - **Logic**: In the long - term, the new season is expected to have a loose supply. In the short - term, the supply pressure will increase due to the peak production and export season in Brazil and the concentrated import in China [17]. - **Outlook**: In the long - term, the price is expected to oscillate with a downward bias. In the short - term, it is recommended to short on rebounds [17]. 3.1.9 Pulp - **Industry Information**: The prices of various pulp products in Shandong remained stable or decreased slightly [18]. - **Logic**: The futures price fluctuated at a low level. The supply of broad - leaf pulp is abundant, the demand is weak, and the overseas market is also weak. However, the recent increase in domestic broad - leaf pulp prices is worth noting [18]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate widely, and attention can be paid to the low - absorption long - matching opportunity when the main contract falls to 5,200 - 5,250 yuan/ton [18]. 3.1.10 Logs - **Industry Information**: After the first - month delivery of logs, the short - term fundamentals changed little [19]. - **Logic**: The new foreign quotation has increased, but the domestic market is in the off - season. There are both positive and negative factors in the market, and the supply pressure is gradually easing [19]. - **Outlook**: The market is intertwined with multiple factors. It is recommended to operate within the range of 800 - 850, and the industrial side can participate in hedging according to its own costs [19]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring The report also mentions data monitoring for various products such as oils and fats, corn/starch, hogs, rubber, cotton, sugar, pulp, and logs, but specific data details are not provided in the text [22][53][72].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the focus on supply and demand dynamics in the glass and soda ash markets, with an emphasis on the speed of inventory digestion upstream [1] Group 2 - Glass futures continue to show weakness, with a gradual deepening of summer maintenance affecting supply [1] - The inventory of glass production enterprises decreased to 51.78 million heavy boxes, a reduction of 1.56 million heavy boxes week-on-week [1] - Soda ash futures experienced a tentative rebound, with production enterprise inventory at 1.684 million tons, down 104,000 tons week-on-week [1] - Overall, both glass and soda ash in China are in a phase of inventory digestion, with current prices rapidly declining [1] - The market is now focusing on the effectiveness of supply-side contraction [1]

Report Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Copper price rebounds due to overseas equity market recovery, mine - end production cut concerns, but upward height is limited in the off - season [1]. - Aluminum price fluctuates, with a short - term trend of weakening oscillation due to inventory accumulation and uncertain trade situation [3]. - Lead price is expected to oscillate weakly as supply remains loose [4]. - Zinc price has an increased risk of decline due to weak industry data and the weakening of previous supporting factors [5]. - Tin price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term due to the strengthening of the resumption of production in Myanmar and the weak supply - demand situation [6][7]. - Nickel price may decline as the macro - atmosphere cools, demand is weak, and the price of nickel ore is expected to fall [8]. - Lithium carbonate price may be supported at the bottom due to the expected improvement in the supply - demand relationship, but the supply reduction sustainability needs to be observed [10]. - Alumina price may face an over - capacity situation, and it is recommended to short at high prices [12]. - Stainless steel price is expected to be strongly oscillating in the short term [14]. - Cast aluminum alloy price has limited rebound space due to weak supply - demand in the off - season [16]. Summary by Metal Copper - Price: LME copper rose 0.78% to $9708/ton, Shanghai copper main contract reached 78370 yuan/ton [1]. - Inventory: LME inventory decreased by 2175 tons to 139575 tons, domestic electrolytic copper social inventory increased by 16000 tons [1]. - Price Outlook: In the current off - season, the upward space of copper price is limited, with the Shanghai copper main contract running between 77600 - 79000 yuan/ton and LME copper 3M between 9600 - 9800 dollars/ton [1]. Aluminum - Price: LME aluminum fell 0.06% to $2570/ton, Shanghai aluminum main contract reached 20440 yuan/ton [3]. - Inventory: Domestic aluminum ingot social inventory accumulated, LME aluminum inventory increased by 925 tons to 463725 tons [3][18]. - Price Outlook: Aluminum price may oscillate weakly in the short term, with the Shanghai aluminum main contract running between 20350 - 20600 yuan/ton and LME aluminum 3M between 2540 - 2600 dollars/ton [3]. Lead - Price: Shanghai lead index rose 0.09% to 16751 yuan/ton, LME lead 3S rose to $1974.5/ton [4]. - Inventory: Domestic social inventory decreased to 6.63 tons, LME lead inventory was 27.53 tons [4]. - Price Outlook: Lead price is expected to oscillate weakly as supply remains loose [4]. Zinc - Price: Shanghai zinc index fell 0.32% to 22249 yuan/ton, LME zinc 3S fell to $2734.5/ton [5]. - Inventory: Domestic social inventory continued to accumulate to 10.73 tons, LME zinc inventory was 97000 tons [5][18]. - Production: In July 2025, the domestic refined zinc production was 60.28 tons, and it is expected to reach 62.15 tons in August [5]. - Price Outlook: The risk of zinc price decline increases due to weak industry data and the weakening of previous supporting factors [5]. Tin - Price: On August 4, 2025, the Shanghai tin main contract closed at 266590 yuan/ton, up 0.56% [6]. - Supply - Demand: Supply is expected to increase in the third and fourth quarters, but short - term smelting faces raw material pressure; domestic demand is weak, while overseas demand is strong due to AI [6][7]. - Price Outlook: Tin price is expected to oscillate weakly, with the domestic tin price between 250000 - 270000 yuan/ton and LME tin price between 31000 - 33000 dollars/ton [7]. Nickel - Price: Nickel price rebounded slightly, nickel iron price was stable after rising, and refined nickel price rebounded slightly with flat trading [8]. - Market Situation: Macro - atmosphere cools, stainless steel price falls, and nickel ore price is expected to decline [8]. - Price Outlook: Nickel price is expected to decline, with the Shanghai nickel main contract between 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton and LME nickel 3M between 14500 - 16500 dollars/ton [8]. Lithium Carbonate - Price: The MMLC index was 68832 yuan, unchanged from the previous day, and the LC2509 contract closed at 68920 yuan, also unchanged [10]. - Market Situation: The fundamental improvement depends on the actual reduction of the mine end, and the supply - demand relationship is expected to improve before the peak season [10]. - Price Outlook: Lithium carbonate price may be supported at the bottom, but the supply reduction sustainability needs to be observed, with the Guangzhou Futures Exchange LC2509 contract between 66800 - 70900 yuan/ton [10]. Alumina - Price: The alumina index rose 2.25% to 3224 yuan/ton, overseas FOB price fell to $376/ton, and the import window was closed [12]. - Inventory: The futures warehouse receipt was 0.66 tons, remaining at a historical low [12]. - Strategy: It is recommended to short at high prices, with the domestic main contract AO2509 between 3000 - 3400 yuan/ton [12]. Stainless Steel - Price: The stainless steel main contract closed at 12925 yuan/ton, up 0.66%, and spot prices in some regions increased [14]. - Inventory: Social inventory decreased by 0.66%, but 300 - series inventory increased by 1.00%, and the supply of 316L was tight [14]. - Price Outlook: Stainless steel price is expected to be strongly oscillating in the short term [14]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Price: The AD2511 contract rose 0.05% to 19930 yuan/ton, and the spot price was flat [16]. - Inventory: The inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in three regions decreased [16]. - Price Outlook: Cast aluminum alloy price has limited rebound space due to weak supply - demand in the off - season [16].

Core Viewpoint - India continues to import crude oil from Russia despite U.S. tariff threats, highlighting the complexities of the global energy market influenced by geopolitical risks, trade policies, and supply-demand dynamics [1][3] Group 1: India's Energy Policy - India's energy policy is primarily influenced by the international oil market's supply conditions and the global economic environment, with energy security being a top priority [1] - The Indian Ministry of External Affairs emphasized the long-term stability of India-Russia relations, asserting that they should not be disrupted by third-party factors [1] Group 2: U.S. Tariff Threats - The U.S. President announced plans to impose a 25% tariff on Indian goods due to India's continued procurement of Russian crude oil, reflecting the interplay between energy trade and international politics [1] - This tariff threat arises amid heightened tensions between the U.S. and Russia, particularly in the context of the ongoing Ukraine ceasefire negotiations [1] Group 3: Changes in Oil Import Structure - India's crude oil import structure has significantly changed, with imports from Russia increasing from 68,000 barrels per day in early 2022 to a peak of 2.15 million barrels per day in May 2023 [1] - At one point, Russian supplies accounted for nearly 40% of India's crude oil imports, making Russia its largest supplier [1] - Given India's average daily crude oil consumption of approximately 5.5 million barrels, of which 88% is imported, this shift has a notable impact on the global crude oil trade landscape [1] Group 4: Economic Implications - The shift towards Russian oil has allowed India to reduce its import costs and alleviate energy price pressures domestically [3] - In the short term, this strategy may help stabilize India's energy supply and economic operations, but it could also lead to international trade friction and market volatility [3] - Global investors should monitor crude oil price trends influenced by geopolitical situations, tariff threats, and supply chain changes, as energy-related currencies and stock market sectors may be indirectly affected [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - **Precious Metals**: The unexpectedly low US non - farm payroll data in July and the downward revision of the previous value have strengthened the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September. With the weakening of the US dollar and the decline in US Treasury yields, the cost of holding gold has decreased. Global central bank gold - buying demand, fiscal and monetary easing expectations, geopolitical and trade policy uncertainties are all factors driving the return of gold prices to fundamental strength [3]. - **Copper**: The recent decline in copper prices is due to the US adjustment of copper tariff policies. Although the tariff does not cover core upstream products, the high copper inventory in the US COMEX market may affect the price difference between LME and COMEX. The price of Shanghai copper is still closely linked to LME copper, and weak downstream demand is expected to emerge this week [16]. - **Aluminum and Related Products**: Macro factors have a negative impact on aluminum. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate under pressure. Alumina is expected to be weak in the short - term, while cast aluminum alloy has a relatively good fundamental situation, and its futures price generally follows the trend of Shanghai aluminum [37]. - **Zinc**: The supply side of zinc is gradually shifting from tight to surplus, and the processing fee is expected to increase this month. The demand side is weak during the traditional off - season. In the short term, attention should be paid to macro data, market sentiment, and supply - side disturbances [61]. - **Nickel and Its Industry Chain**: Anti - involution sentiment has declined, and factors such as the US dollar index, US copper tariffs, and Sino - US economic and trade talks are suppressing the market. The price of nickel ore in the Philippines has loosened, and the downstream demand has improved. Nickel sulfate prices are firm, and nickel iron prices have adjusted. Stainless steel has limited decline due to multiple factors [77]. - **Tin**: The resumption of tin mining in Myanmar is expected to start in late August at the earliest, which will have the greatest impact on the tin fundamentals, but may not affect short - term supply and demand. Tin prices are expected to fluctuate in the future [92]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: There are still short - term supply - side disturbances, and the production schedule in August is expected to be positive. It is expected to maintain a wide - range shock state [108]. - **Silicon Industry Chain**: The current macro - sentiment continues to affect the market, and the fundamentals remain unchanged. The industrial silicon market is expected to fluctuate, and the polysilicon market is expected to have a wide - range shock [118]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Influencing Factors**: The unexpectedly low US non - farm payroll data in July (73,000 new jobs) and the downward revision of the previous value have increased the probability of a Fed rate cut in September to 89.1%. The weakening of the US dollar and the decline in US Treasury yields have reduced the cost of holding gold, while long - term support comes from central bank gold - buying demand and fiscal and monetary easing expectations [3]. - **Price Data**: Various price data of SHFE and COMEX gold and silver futures, including prices, price differences, and long - term trends, are presented [4][12][13]. Copper - **Price Influencing Factors**: The US tariff adjustment on copper products has affected copper prices. Although core upstream products are excluded, the high inventory in the US COMEX market may impact the price relationship between different markets. Downstream demand is expected to weaken [16]. - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai copper and London copper futures and spot are provided, including data such as the main contract, continuous contracts, and spot premiums and discounts [17][22][25]. Aluminum and Related Products - **Aluminum**: Macro factors are negative for aluminum. Although domestic demand is in the off - season and social inventory is accumulating, the low absolute inventory provides some support, and prices are expected to fluctuate under pressure [37]. - **Alumina**: The operating capacity of alumina is high and in surplus, and inventory is rising. The warehouse receipt problem may be resolved in August, and prices may be weak in the short - term [37]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The price of scrap aluminum is high, and the supply of scrap aluminum may decline in the future, providing strong support for alloy prices. The demand from exchange - listed brands is good, and the futures price generally follows the trend of Shanghai aluminum [37]. - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy futures and spot, as well as price differences between different contracts, are presented [38][42][48]. Zinc - **Price Influencing Factors**: The supply side is gradually changing from tight to surplus, and the processing fee is expected to increase this month. The demand side is weak during the off - season. Short - term attention should be paid to macro data and supply - side disturbances [61]. - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai zinc and LME zinc futures and spot, including price differences between different contracts and spot premiums and discounts, are provided [62][70]. Nickel and Its Industry Chain - **Price Influencing Factors**: Anti - involution sentiment has declined, and factors such as the US dollar index and US copper tariffs are suppressing the market. The price of nickel ore in the Philippines has loosened, and downstream demand has improved. Nickel sulfate prices are firm, and nickel iron prices have adjusted [77]. - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai nickel and LME nickel futures, as well as prices of related products such as nickel ore, nickel sulfate, and stainless steel, are presented [78][83][91]. Tin - **Price Influencing Factors**: The resumption of tin mining in Myanmar is expected to start in late August at the earliest, which will have the greatest impact on the tin fundamentals, but may not affect short - term supply and demand. Tin prices are expected to fluctuate [92]. - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai tin and LME tin futures and spot, as well as prices of related products such as tin concentrate and solder, are provided [93][99][101]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Influencing Factors**: There are still short - term supply - side disturbances, and the production schedule in August is expected to be positive. It is expected to maintain a wide - range shock state [108]. - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of lithium carbonate futures and spot, as well as inventory data, are presented [108][111][116]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Price Influencing Factors**: The current macro - sentiment continues to affect the market, and the fundamentals remain unchanged. The industrial silicon market is expected to fluctuate, and the polysilicon market is expected to have a wide - range shock [118]. - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of industrial silicon and polysilicon spot and futures, as well as prices of related products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components, are provided [119][120][127].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Founder Securities indicates an expected increase in thermal coal demand for the year, with tightening supply likely to further boost coal prices. This creates potential benefits for elastic and undervalued sectors, while high dividend-paying stocks may see valuation improvements due to established policy support for coal prices [1]. Group 1: Policy Changes and Impacts - A new coal mine production verification policy has been introduced, strictly controlling overproduction behaviors. The policy mandates that annual coal output must not exceed announced capacity, and monthly output must not exceed 10% of announced capacity, with non-compliant mines facing shutdowns for rectification [2]. - The evolution of coal supply policies reflects changing market dynamics, with past policies addressing issues of overcapacity, compliance, and now overproduction. The latest policy aims to regulate production behavior directly, indicating a responsive adjustment to market conditions [3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Analysis - The supply control measures are expected to stabilize coal prices, while demand will determine the potential for price increases. Historical data shows that past policies have led to significant price increases following their implementation, suggesting a similar outcome may occur if demand improves [4]. - In the thermal coal sector, domestic production is expected to increase as safety inspections ease, while imports are declining due to reduced profitability. The current high temperatures are driving up demand, with power plants consuming more coal, indicating a potential year-on-year increase in coal usage [5]. - For coking coal, domestic production remains high, but falling prices have led to reduced operating rates in some mines. The inventory dynamics are complex, with downstream demand influencing stock levels, and expectations of rising prices prompting early inventory accumulation [5].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic methanol futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract closing at 2390.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a decrease of 0.54% [1] Supply Side - According to Zhonghui Futures, the recovery of previously shut down facilities and increased operational loads of overseas methanol plants are raising supply-side pressure expectations [1] - Recently, facilities from Ningxia Baofeng and Hualu Hengsheng (600426) are under maintenance with no recovery yet, while next week, maintenance at Gansu Huating, Xinjiang Guanghui, Shenhua Xilaifeng, and Shanxi Lubao methanol plants is expected to conclude [1] - Overall operational loads of overseas facilities remain high [1] Demand Side - According to Ruida Futures, the restart of the Zhongmei Mengda olefin plant last week has led to an increase in operational loads, while Zhejiang Xingxing's plant is still offline, slightly boosting the olefin industry's operational rates [1] - Xinjiang Hengyou is expected to resume operations this week, indicating potential for further increases in the olefin industry's operational capacity [1] Inventory - As of July 31, coastal methanol inventories stood at 915,000 tons, which is above the historical average, having increased by 45,000 tons (5.17%) compared to July 24, and down 2.76% year-on-year [1] Market Outlook - Donghai Futures suggests that the "anti-involution" trend is cooling, leading to a correction in industrial products [1] - The rising coal prices provide some support for methanol, but the restart of facilities, increased imports, and compressed MTO profits are putting pressure on supply and demand [1] - The 2509 contract is approaching its delivery month, aligning closely with spot market logic, and prices are expected to remain weak and volatile [1]

铜周报 20250803 宏观向上； 供需有改善迹象 期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可[2011]1773号 杨磊 从业资格证号：F03128841 投资咨询证号：Z0020255 核心要点及策略 1 影响因素分析 | 2 | | --- | 01 03 02 价格数据 04 宏观经济数据 基本面数据 19 07 3 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 5 01 价格数据 4 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 5 持货商销售情绪减轻、挺价出货，铜现货升水坚挺 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 6 本周LME铜0-3M贴水周环比略有缩窄 02 基本面数据 7 本周铜精矿TC指数均价环比涨0.54美元/吨至-42.09美元/吨，仍为负 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 8 9 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 据SMM，本周九港铜精矿库存环比减3.93万吨至52.16万吨 精废价差有所走弱 10 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 国内7月电解铜产量环比增3.47%、同比增14.21% 11 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 铜进口倒挂 12 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 13 电解 ...

Core Insights - Public REITs are characterized as a marathon, where compliance is essential for project qualification, aimed at mitigating asset risk and ensuring market confidence [1] - High-quality public REITs assets are expected to gain market recognition based on three dimensions: physical asset condition, supply-demand dynamics, and corporate governance [1][2] Group 1: Asset Selection Criteria - The physical state of assets includes factors such as engineering planning concepts, usage duration, construction quality, and the condition of facilities [1] - Assets that maintain scarcity during their lifespan are likely to exhibit strong premium capabilities and income expectations [1] - Effective corporate governance is crucial; even profitable projects may face long-term operational risks without a robust governance framework [1] Group 2: Strategic Positioning - The core value of public REITs lies in establishing a listing platform, with longevity dependent on continuous fundraising and acquisitions, creating a virtuous cycle of financing [2] - Strategic positioning involves three key aspects: strategic resources, strategic regions, and strategic enterprises, guided by national strategies that influence resource allocation and infrastructure demand [2] - Engaging in industries that align with national and public needs can provide a stable policy environment and access to industry growth dividends [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Copper: After the copper tariff is implemented, the market returns to fundamentals. With prices falling continuously, downstream buyers are purchasing at low prices, and trading sentiment has improved. The short - term market is bearish, and the price may find support around 78,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to whether the non - farm payroll data tonight affects the interest rate cut expectation [7]. - Lithium Carbonate: The market sentiment has improved, and the supply - demand situation has tightened, which supports the downside. However, there is a possibility of giving back the gains if the production suspension news is falsified [8]. - Crude Oil: The recent crude oil price is in a strong oscillation. On August 3, the 8 voluntary OPEC+ production - cut countries will announce their September crude oil production policy, so it is recommended to operate cautiously and mainly wait and see [10]. - Asphalt: It is expected to oscillate in the near term. The cost support has strengthened, and policies are more favorable for the far - month outlook, but the impact on the near - month is limited [11][12]. - PP: It is expected to oscillate in the near term. It is recommended to conduct a 09 - 01 reverse spread. The industry has not seen actual policy implementation, and the market sentiment is weakening [13]. - Plastic: It is expected to oscillate in the near term. A 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended. The industry lacks actual policy support, and the macro - sentiment is weakening [14][15]. - PVC: It is expected to oscillate downward in the near term. A 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended. The demand has not improved substantially, and the macro - sentiment is cooling [16]. - Coking Coal: The downward space is limited under the expectation of supply tightening, but attention should be paid to the impact of subsequent production decline on demand [18]. - Urea: The market is still in a weak operation as the fundamentals lack obvious support [19]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Overview - As of the close on August 1, most domestic futures main contracts declined. Lithium carbonate and red dates rose by more than 1%. Coking coal dropped by more than 7%, and industrial silicon dropped by more than 4%. In terms of capital flow, as of 15:28 on August 1, Shanghai copper 2509, coking coal 2601, and Shanghai gold 2510 had capital inflows, while CSI 300 2509, CSI 1000 2509, and CSI 500 2509 had capital outflows [4]. Individual Futures Analysis Copper - The US imposed a 50% import tariff on semi - finished copper products and copper - intensive manufactured goods on August 1. The domestic electrolytic copper production in July increased significantly. The TC/RC fees are still negative but have stopped falling. The copper tariff implementation may affect export demand. The short - term market is bearish [7]. Lithium Carbonate - It opened high and closed low, then rose in the afternoon and ended up. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased. The market expects a reduction in supply, and the cost support has weakened. The downstream demand is expected to increase [8]. Crude Oil - It is in the seasonal travel peak. The US crude oil inventory is at a low level, but the overall oil product inventory has increased. OPEC+ will make decisions on September production on August 3. The price is in a strong oscillation [10]. Asphalt - The supply is expected to decrease in August. The downstream demand is affected by funds and weather. The inventory is at a low level. The cost support has strengthened, and it is expected to oscillate [11][12]. PP - The downstream and enterprise开工 rates are at a low - to - neutral level. The US tariff and propane import restrictions have an impact. The inventory is at a high level. It is expected to oscillate [13]. Plastic - The开工 rate has increased. The downstream开工 rate is at a low level. The inventory is high. The cost has increased. It is expected to oscillate [14][15]. PVC - The开工 rate is at a high level. The downstream demand is weak. The inventory is high. The demand has not improved substantially, and it is expected to oscillate downward [16]. Coking Coal - The supply may be tightened, and the inventory is being transferred downward. The demand from downstream steel mills is strong, but attention should be paid to the impact of production decline [18]. Urea - The production is expected to decrease slightly. The demand is mainly for rigid needs. The inventory has started to accumulate. The market is weak [19].