如今覆盖范围进一步扩大，非洲企业只要生产合格商品，就能零门槛进入14亿人口的超级市场。卢旺达的辣椒农最先尝到甜头：每公斤辣椒关税取消后售价 从30元降至25元，竞争力飙升，上千农民因此增收。2025年前5个月，中国自非洲进口的咖啡、可可豆同比暴涨145.7%和88.6%，占全球同类产品进口量的 18.4%和65.4%。当埃塞俄比亚咖啡豆直达中国咖啡馆，贸易已转化为民生福祉。 7月14日，海关总署发言人吕大良在就上半年我国进出口情况发表讲话时指出："面对某些国家的不公正关税措施，我国具备坚定的应对能力与信心。"同 时，他强调了中国市场持续扩大开放的积极态势，表明中国庞大的市场将为世界各国带来更多发展机遇。下一步，中国将重点积极推进与非洲53个建交国家 实施零关税政策的落实工作。 当美国特朗普忙着对全球不同程度地加税时，6月11日，中非合作论坛上，中国向53个非洲建交国送出贸易大礼：100%税目产品零关税。在《中非维护全球 南方团结合作的长沙宣言》中，53国集体发声谴责"个别国家冲击国际经贸秩序"，虽未点名，字字指向美国。连传统亲美的摩洛哥、科特迪瓦都签了字—— 政治站队已然明朗。这份政策礼单绝非突发善心，而是中 ...

Core Viewpoint - In the first half of 2025, China faces increasing internal and external challenges, leading to a moderately loose monetary policy by the central bank to support economic recovery and maintain liquidity [1][2]. Monetary Policy Overview - The central bank implemented a moderately loose monetary policy to address external shocks and maintain liquidity, balancing short-term and long-term goals [2][12]. - Key actions included adjusting the medium-term lending facility, increasing targeted loans for consumption and agriculture, and lowering policy interest rates [3][12]. Market Operations - The monetary policy operations in the first half of 2025 featured a focus on optimizing interest rate control mechanisms and enhancing structural monetary policy tools [3]. - A 0.5 percentage point reserve requirement ratio cut was implemented, alongside various liquidity support measures [3][12]. - The central bank temporarily paused government bond purchases to maintain market stability [3]. Market Performance - The interbank market saw a total transaction volume of 786.23 trillion yuan, a decrease of 7.13% year-on-year, with pledged repos dominating the market [6]. - The issuance of interbank certificates of deposit surged, with a total issuance of 17.4 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a 6.6% increase year-on-year [7][8]. Interest Rate Trends - The first half of 2025 saw a three-phase interest rate trend: initial tightening due to deposit management, followed by easing as liquidity improved, and finally a slight tightening due to increased special bond issuance [5][13]. - The average interest rates for one-year interbank certificates of deposit decreased to around 1.65% by the end of June 2025 [8][15]. Future Outlook - The second half of 2025 is expected to maintain a moderately loose monetary policy, with continued support for economic recovery and low inflation [16][17]. - The central bank is likely to utilize various policy tools to enhance the transmission of monetary policy and support the real economy [17][18].

大象新闻记者 张华婧 记者从河南省统计局获悉， 2025年1-6月份，全省固定资产投资(不含农户)同比增长5.1%。其中，民间 投资增长8.3%。 分产业看，第一产业投资同比下降0.7%，第二产业投资增长25.9%，第三产业投资下降5.0%。 今年以来，河南深入贯彻落实习近平总书记考察河南重要讲话精神，聚焦重点领域和关键环节，积极对 接国家"两重""两新"、培育新质生产力、促进民营经济发展等稳增长政策，持续优化营商环境，加快重 大项目建设，积极扩大有效投资。上半年，全省固定资产投资同比增长5.1%，规模稳步扩大。 一、政策支撑有力，制造业投资加快增长 从三大主要领域看，工业投资同比增长25.9%，基础设施投资(不含电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应 业)下降10.6%，房地产开发投资下降8.5%。 工业投资中，采矿业投资同比增长40.5%，制造业投资增长24.8%，电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应 业投资增长28.3%。 基础设施投资中，水利、环境和公共设施管理业(不含土地管理业)投资同比下降2.0%，交通运输和邮政 业投资下降22.2%，信息传输业投资下降18.2%。 从隶属关系看，中央项目投资同比增长4.0%， ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The global financial market is influenced by multiple core variables including Federal Reserve policy expectations, Trump's trade policies, and geopolitical dynamics [2] - The US dollar index experienced a rebound, closing at 97.83, marking a 0.9% increase, the first weekly gain in three weeks [3] - Gold and silver prices continued to rise, with gold closing at $3,355.12 per ounce, supported by central bank purchases and heightened risk aversion [4] Group 2: Currency Movements - The Australian dollar strengthened due to the Reserve Bank of Australia's unexpected decision to maintain interest rates, while the British pound faced pressure, recording six consecutive declines [5] - The euro was under pressure following dovish comments from European Central Bank officials, while the US dollar against the Japanese yen saw fluctuations, ultimately rising nearly 2% for the week [5] Group 3: Commodity Prices - International oil prices rose over 2% for the week, supported by geopolitical tensions in the Red Sea and expectations that OPEC+ may pause production increases in October [6] - Despite an unexpected increase in US crude oil inventories, the overall market sentiment remained bullish due to external factors [6] Group 4: Stock Market Performance - The stock market experienced high volatility, with technology stocks, particularly Nvidia, leading the gains, pushing the Nasdaq and S&P 500 to new highs [7] - However, all three major indices closed lower for the week, reflecting a rebalancing pressure due to high valuations [7] Group 5: Cryptocurrency Market - The cryptocurrency market saw significant activity, with Bitcoin reaching $117,789 per coin, driven by institutional interest [8] - However, the influx of leveraged funds raised concerns about market volatility, with $541 million in liquidations reported in the past 24 hours [8] Group 6: Future Outlook - The market is expected to focus on Federal Reserve officials' speeches, key economic data releases, and potential adjustments in Trump's policies in the coming week [9] - The US dollar's performance is likely to continue influencing non-US asset prices, with gold and silver expected to maintain strength, while oil price volatility may increase [9]

从美元指数的表现来看，目前持稳于 98.456，继前一周上涨 0.91% 后，本周以来继续攀升 0.64%。更值 得关注的是，该指数在周四一度冲高至 98.951，创下 6 月 23 日以来的最高水平。这一波上涨的直接推 动力来自于美国最新公布的经济数据：6 月零售销售的反弹幅度超出市场预期，显示出美国消费者的支 出韧性依然强劲；同时，上周首次申请失业救济人数降至三个月低点，意味着劳动力市场仍保持紧俏状 态。这两组数据共同描绘出美国经济的稳健图景，使得美联储在降息问题上有了更充足的观望空间。 市场对美联储政策路径的预期已随之调整。交易商目前预计，今年剩余时间内的降息幅度约为 45 个基 点，这一数值低于本周初接近 50 个基点的预期。这种预期的收紧直接反映在美元的走势上 —— 利率优 势的维持甚至扩大，吸引了全球资本持续流入美元资产，推动美元汇率走高。从利率期货市场来看，投 资者对 9 月美联储降息的概率预期已从一周前的 58% 降至 49%，对 12 月降息的预期也出现类似下调， 显示出经济数据对政策预期的显著影响。 与此同时，全球其他主要经济体的不确定性为美元的强势增添了助力。日本即将于周日举行参议院选 ...

"盈利修正广度正在爆发，"威尔逊说，"企业在应对关税方面很有一套，这一点无可否认。" 曾是华尔街最坚定空头之一的摩根士丹利首席美国股票策略师迈克·威尔逊（Mike Wilson）表示，美股牛市正 在形成，但标普500指数本季度可能先遭遇一波冲击。 他认为，受美国总统特朗普贸易政策对企业资产负债表的影响，美股本季度可能下跌5%-10%。但这一下跌 将是短暂的，会为投资者提供一个极具吸引力的入场点——最终，企业盈利增长预期的改善将推动股市上 涨。 "这就是新一轮牛市初期的样子，"威尔逊周四在接受彭博社《Surveillance》采访时说，"它的爆发力很强，不 会给人太多入场机会。变化速度超出预期，正在加速。" 他补充道，任何回调都将"时间短、幅度浅"，而且他"绝对会"在回调时买入。 标普500指数周四再创历史新高，其反弹之惊人，以至于市值在短短几个月内就增加了约11.5万亿美元。4月 初，特朗普对全球贸易伙伴加征全面关税后，该指数一度濒临熊市；一周后，他决定暂停关税，点燃了这波 最新的市场热情。 在市场波动期间，威尔逊是少数几位对美股保持乐观的华尔街预测人士之一。他的许多同行曾迅速下调展 望，但随着市场反弹至新高 ...

煤炭行业具备"高盈利、高现金流、高壁垒、高分红、高安全边际"特征，叠加供需格局改善与周期性上涨红利，具备较强的抗风险能力和配置价值。感兴趣 的投资者可通过煤炭ETF（515220）一键布局。 没有股票账户的投资者可关注国泰中证煤炭ETF联接C（008280），国泰中证煤炭ETF联接A（008279）。 2016年～2017年供给侧改革期间，煤炭行业涨幅达31.55%。本轮"反内卷"政策若落地，有望通过淘汰落后产能、限制新增产能，推动煤价回升和企业利润修 复。 山西证券指出，2025年上半年，煤炭行业呈现供需边际改善趋势。供给端，1-6月原煤产量累计24.05亿吨，同比增长5.4%，增速边际放缓；进口煤持续收 缩，1-6月累计22170万吨，同比下降11.1%，6月单月降幅达25.93%。需求端，制造业与基建投资分别增长7.5%和4.6%，非电需求支撑明显，电力需求边际 改善。 华源证券指出，2025年夏季气温整体较去年有望显著升高，并带动电厂煤炭日耗持续提升保持较高水平，有望持续推动5月中旬以来的港口煤炭库存去化进 程，缓解煤炭高库存压力，若叠加潜在的降水偏少导致水电出力较弱，夏季煤炭库存去化效果有望超预期， ...

多位大银行 CEO 也公开表达了对美联储独立性的维护。他们警告，破坏美联储的独立性可能带来危险后果：短期会引发市场恐慌，长期则会削弱美元的储 备货币地位和美国金融市场的全球吸引力。摩根大通、高盛等华尔街巨头的掌门人纷纷表态，强调美联储不受政治干预是美国经济稳定的基石，这种共识形 成了强大的舆论压力，让特朗普在采取实际行动前不得不三思。 从市场反应来看，投资者的押注已得到初步验证。在特朗普升级施压后的几个交易日里，美国国债市场虽出现短暂波动，但 10 年期国债收益率仅小幅上升 5 个基点，远低于 2018 年美联储主席被公开批评时的波动幅度。这表明市场已部分消化了政治噪音，对美联储政策的信任度仍在。同时，美元指数保持稳 定，美股也未出现恐慌性抛售，显示出市场对 "政治威胁难落地" 的预期已成为主流。 深入分析可见，投资者的信心源于多重约束条件。从法律层面看，美联储主席的任免程序并非总统单方面决定，需经过参议院批准，而当前参议院的政治格 局使得解雇鲍威尔的提案难以通过。从政治逻辑看，特朗普若强行推动撤换，可能引发与司法系统的对峙，分散其竞选精力，得不偿失。从经济现实看，当 前美国经济虽有韧性，但尚未到需要紧急降息 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market is poised for a new bull market, but short-term risks should be monitored [1][3] Group 1: Market Outlook - The S&P 500 index may decline by 5% to 10% within the current quarter due to pressure on corporate earnings from President Trump's trade policies, but this pullback is expected to be "temporary and mild," providing a buying opportunity for investors [1][3] - The S&P 500 index has risen over 20% since its low in April, with a market capitalization increase of approximately $11.5 trillion [3] Group 2: Impact of Trade Policies - Recent broad tariff measures implemented by the Trump administration are beginning to impact corporate balance sheets, with the third-quarter earnings season expected to reflect these effects for the first time [3] - The number of industries with upward earnings revisions has significantly increased, indicating that companies are gradually absorbing the impact of tariffs [3] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The recent market rally has been primarily driven by a few technology giants, while cyclical sectors such as financials and industrials have not fully participated [3] - If trade risks lead to a broader earnings revision, funds may shift from growth stocks to value stocks, resulting in a more balanced rise in the index components [3] Group 4: Investor Sentiment - The market oscillates between fear and greed, and the key is to distinguish between temporary pullbacks and structural bear markets, with corporate earnings trajectories serving as the ultimate judge [3]

相关数据直观地展现了日本债务问题的严峻性。目前，日本公共债务占GDP的比例高达263%，这一数 字远超2010年希腊债务危机时的142%。日本债务如同"滚雪球"般持续增长，这与过去三十年日本为恢 复经济增长而不断采取扩张性财政政策密切相关。 市场人士担忧，一旦日本债务问题失控，可能引发连锁反应，对日本国内经济乃至全球金融市场产生负 面影响。一方面，日本政府可能面临更高的借贷成本，进一步挤压财政空间，影响公共服务和基础设施 投资；另一方面，国际投资者对日本国债的信心可能下降，导致资金外流，加剧日元贬值和通胀压力。 回顾此前，7月15日日本国债市场曾经历剧烈波动。当日，日本10年期国债收益率一度攀升至1.59%， 创下2008年10月以来的最高纪录。同时，20年期和30年期国债收益率也分别创下1999年首次发行以来的 新高，市场紧张情绪可见一斑。 业内人士普遍认为，此次日本长债市场动荡的触发因素，是外界对日本参议院选举后可能推行财政扩张 路线的担忧。市场分析，若日本政府在参议院选举后增加财政支出，将不可避免地导致日本债务规模进 一步扩大。而日本本就背负着沉重的债务负担，作为公共债务占国内生产总值比重最高的国家之一 ...