Group 1 - The core message of the news indicates positive signals from both the US and China regarding trade negotiations, with US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin suggesting that a significant agreement may have been reached [1] - The Chinese response has been notably enthusiastic, using terms like "constructive," "important consensus," and "substantial progress," which are typically reserved for actual breakthroughs [1] - There is speculation that the US may be the party making concessions in the negotiations, as China's previous strong stance suggests they would not compromise without genuine US sincerity [6] Group 2 - Domestic dissatisfaction with trade policies in the US is rising, and the Federal Reserve's reluctance to raise interest rates may pressure the US to find a suitable excuse to retreat from its hardline stance [8] - The positive news from the trade talks has relieved many, especially those involved in foreign trade and e-commerce, who are eagerly anticipating further good news [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of maintaining a calm and patient attitude in the face of ongoing U.S.-China trade disputes, advocating for a pragmatic approach to negotiations and mutual understanding [2][28]. Summary by Sections Trade Agreement Details - The U.S. has committed to canceling 91% of tariffs imposed on Chinese goods and modifying a 34% tariff, with 24% of it suspended for 90 days, while retaining 10% [5]. - China reciprocates by canceling 91% of its counter-tariffs on U.S. goods and suspending 24% of the 34% counter-tariff for 90 days, keeping 10% intact [5][9]. Market Reactions - Following the announcement, A-shares surged, recovering losses from the previous month, while the Hang Seng Index rose by 2.98% [31][36]. - U.S. markets also reacted positively, with the Nasdaq rising by 4.11% and companies like Amazon and Apple seeing significant stock price increases [34]. Economic Implications - The trade agreement is expected to create a busy export-import window for both countries in the next 90 days, coinciding with major U.S. shopping seasons [47]. - Concerns remain about the long-term implications of tariffs, particularly the potential for a 20% tariff on fentanyl-related products, which may require further negotiations [42]. Strategic Insights - The article suggests that the current negotiation phase presents an opportunity for China to strengthen trade ties with other economies, such as the EU and Japan, to enhance economic interdependence [54][55]. - Companies are encouraged to build resilience in their operations, focusing on global supply chain management and digital strategies to adapt to future uncertainties [58][60].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the recent consensus reached in the China-US trade negotiations has led to a significant positive sentiment in the financial markets, with major stock indices rising and the renminbi strengthening [1][2][4] - Following the announcement of the joint statement from the China-US Geneva trade talks, the A-share indices collectively rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3369.24 points, up 0.82%, and the Shenzhen Component Index rising 1.72% [2] - The offshore renminbi appreciated significantly, with a rise of over 300 points, closing at 7.2061 against the US dollar, reflecting a 0.47% increase [2] Group 2 - The international gold price experienced a sharp decline of over 3% following the positive developments in the China-US trade talks, with London spot gold dropping to $3226 per ounce [4][5] - A total of 14 gold ETFs fell by more than 2% on the same day, indicating a broader market reaction to the trade negotiations [7] - Analysts suggest that the decline in gold prices is linked to the reduced risk perception in the market due to the progress in trade talks, as gold is typically viewed as a safe-haven asset [5][6]

5月12日下午，《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》（以下简称"联合声明"）发布，引发全球市场关注，各国 股市普涨。 各券商首席分析师火速对联合声明进行解读。他们一致认为，联合声明的内容超市场预期，向市场释放积极信 号，短期内有望提振投资者风险偏好，利好中国权益资产。在行业配置方面，券商首席一致看好出口链条及科 技板块。 超预期！ 券商首席一致认为，联合声明意味着中美贸易谈判取得阶段性成果，关税暂缓及下调幅度超市场预期，关税冲 击大幅下降。 国金证券策略首席张弛分析称，根据联合声明，美国针对中国进口商品的关税税率由此前的145%降至30%， 另外24%的税率暂缓90天。"这一结果超出市场预期。对于出口而言，相比145%关税税率的'不可贸易'，当下 30%的税率水平对于出口板块而言压力大幅下降，尤其是在24%关税税率暂缓的90天内，可能会存在'抢出 口'的需求。"张弛向券商中国记者表示。 "联合声明的发布，标志着自4月'对等关税'冲突以来贸易摩擦出现实质性缓和。双方宣布在90天内暂停新增关 税、保留部分低位税率，并建立后续对话机制，释放出明显的'降温'信号。同时，对话机制也为双方提供了持 续沟通和解决问题的平台，有助 ...

Export Performance - In April, exports showed resilience with a growth rate of 8.1%, surpassing the first quarter's growth of 6.4% and significantly exceeding the consensus expectation of 0.8%[1] - Month-on-month, April exports increased by 0.6%, indicating sustained export momentum despite a surge in March[1] Regional Analysis - Exports to ASEAN, Canada, and Latin America saw significant increases, with exports to ASEAN nearly doubling to 20.8% and to Vietnam reaching 22.5%[2] - Conversely, exports to the United States declined by 21.0%, while exports to Canada and the EU increased by 15.0% and 8.3%, respectively[2] Product Categories - Labor-intensive and consumer electronics exports weakened, with declines in categories such as plastic products (-1.2%), bags (-9.1%), and clothing (-1.2%) indicating a significant impact from tariffs[3] - Mechanical and high-tech products maintained resilience, with integrated circuit exports accelerating by 1.5%[3] Import Trends - Imports showed a slight recovery with a year-on-year decline of only 0.2%, an improvement of 4.1 percentage points from the previous month[4] - Notably, copper imports surged by 48.9%, driven by increased prices due to U.S. tariffs on copper ore[4] Trade Policy Outlook - Short-term exports to the U.S. are expected to recover, but long-term dynamics will depend on ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations and tariff policy adjustments[5] - The U.S. has reduced tariffs on Chinese goods to 30%, with a temporary suspension of 24% tariffs for 90 days, creating uncertainty for future export demand[5]

海外策略：美国经济平稳，美联储按兵不动 美国经济趋势上保持平稳，未来可能受到中美贸易谈判超预期支撑。 一是经济稳步扩张。 亚特兰大联储 GDPNOW模型预测Q2实际GDP年化增速达到2.3%，延续了Q1的平稳增长态势，其中私人消费增速达到3.3%， 剔除库存后的私人投资增速达到3.6%，结构上仅地产及建筑投资在长端利率上行压制下小幅萎缩，其余分项 均在扩张。 二是就业依然稳健。 4月美国新增非农就业人数（17.7万）超出市场预期，失业率稳定在4.2%，已 于4.0-4.2%区间震荡一年之久，周频首次申领失业金人数22.8万，较前值回落1.3万。值得注意的是，当前职位 空缺率（4.3%）已经降至本轮周期最低点，随着空缺职位的消耗，失业率可能向上突破前期箱体。中美贸易 谈判进展超预期，叠加"硬数据"持续给力，美国经济或已在预期层面越过谷底。 美联储于5月议息会议按兵不动，且未提供任何前瞻指引，继续强调政策路径将取决于未来形势。市场对美联 储降息的预期持续降温，年内降息预期收敛至3次合计75bp，首次降息时点7月。考虑到失业率的潜在上行趋 势，以及长端利率的震荡区间，我们认为当前市场预期基本理性。 由于美国经济、就 ...

淡旺季切换，价格上方压力加大 研究员：王艳红 投资咨询号：Z0010675 研究员：袁 棋 投资咨询号：Z0019013 电解铝-产业基本面总结： 第二部分 氧化铝-产业基本面 第三部分 电解铝-产业基本面 目 录 核心观点 宏观：美国经济数据超预期，通胀预期走强，降息预期推迟；国内降准降息预期落地；中美贸易谈判进行中。 氧化铝-产业基本面总结： 第一部分 核心观点 供给：4月，在产产能环比减少390万吨，开工率大幅下滑；矿石端，国内到港量维持正常，澳大利亚雨季影响结束 进口： 2025年3月中国氧化铝净出口28.88万吨，环比大幅增加，连续12个月净出口；进口亏损周度环比略有走阔，进出口通道仍处于关闭 需求：电解铝在产产能持续增加且维持高位，短期氧化铝需求相对持稳 利润：氧化铝目前冶炼成本在每吨2866，每吨盈利59元，成本变化不大，利润略有走阔；烧碱价格最新价3480元/吨，周度环比无变化 产业面，铝土矿量维持正常，较历史同期偏高，矿价周度环比大幅下滑，冶炼亏损转正，预计冶炼产能会得到恢复；进口亏损小幅收敛，但进出 口通道仍处于关闭状态，出口需求偏弱；盘面仓单维持在高位，远期产量压力较大。综合来看，矿价大 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Demand has improved slightly on a month - on - month basis, supply remains at a low level, and the inventory accumulation speed of the industry chain has slowed down since the second quarter. Low inventory supports the near - end spot price and benefits the long - term peak - season expectations. Due to the US pressure on Chinese refineries during the sanctions on Iran, concerns about overseas crude oil supply and domestic asphalt supply have increased. Coupled with positive signals from China - US trade negotiations, oil prices are strong in the short term, and asphalt prices have risen accordingly. In the medium and long term, with the expected continuous production increase of OPEC, the upward space for oil prices is limited. Currently, the supply - demand situation of asphalt is neutral, and the unilateral price is expected to fluctuate at a high level, while the asphalt/crude oil spread will remain high. The operating range of the BU2506 contract is expected to be between 3300 and 3500 [7]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Related Data - **Futures Prices and Positions**: On May 12, 2025, the prices of BU2506 (the main contract), BU2507, and BU2508 increased by 0.81%, 0.99%, and 1.23% respectively compared to May 9. The prices of SC2506 and Brent first - line also rose by 2.10% and 2.47%. The main contract's position decreased by 2.27% to 10.8 million lots, and the trading volume decreased by 14.61% to 16.6 million lots. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 86,120 tons [2]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis spreads of BU06 - 07, BU07 - 08, Shandong - main contract, and East China - main contract decreased by 30.00%, 29.63%, 29.06%, and 50.75% respectively. The South China - main contract basis decreased by 12.39%. The asphalt refinery profit decreased by 208.10% to - 112.88, and the refined oil comprehensive profit decreased by 20.18% to 342.09. The BU - SC cracking spread increased by 10.28% to - 452.65 [2]. - **Industrial Chain Spot Prices**: The low - end prices in Shandong and East China remained unchanged, while the low - end price in South China increased by 0.60% to 3340. The prices of Shandong gasoline, diesel, and petroleum coke decreased slightly, and the dilution asphalt discount remained unchanged. The exchange - rate mid - price decreased by 0.04% [2]. 2. Market Analysis - **Market Overview**: On May 12, the average domestic asphalt market price was 3669 yuan/ton, up 0.22% from the previous day. In the northern market, demand increased slightly, and the prices of Shandong's major refineries rose by 30 yuan/ton. In the southern market, driven by cost and controllable refinery inventories, prices in South China and the Yangtze River Delta rose by 20 - 30 yuan/ton [5]. - **Regional Markets**: In the Shandong market, the mainstream transaction price rose to 3600 - 3730 yuan/ton. In the Yangtze River Delta market, the mainstream transaction price rose to 3570 - 3570 yuan/ton. In the South China market, the mainstream transaction price rose to 3350 - 3460 yuan/ton [5][6]. - **Market Outlook**: In the short term, asphalt prices in Shandong will remain firm, those in the Yangtze River Delta and South China will remain stable. In the medium and long term, the unilateral price of asphalt is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and the asphalt/crude oil spread will remain high [5][6][7]. 3. Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the closing price and position of the BU main contract, the market prices of asphalt in East China and Shandong, and the prices of Shandong refinery gasoline and diesel [9][10][13]

商务部新闻发言人表示，本次中美经贸高层会谈取得实质性进展，大幅降低双边关税水平，美方取消了 共计91%的加征关税，中方相应取消了91%的反制关税；美方暂停实施24%的"对等关税"，中方也相应 暂停实施24%的反制关税。这一举措符合两国生产者和消费者的期待，也符合两国利益和世界共同利 益。 5月12日中美发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》，双方在联合声明中达成多项积极共识。 5月12日，多家科技公司港股股价上涨。 除了上述科技公司，港股苹果相关概念股在5月12日也有惊人涨幅。至收盘，高伟电子（1415.HK）涨 幅为18.45%，瑞声科技（2018.HK）涨幅达15.37%，舜宇光学科技（2382.HK）上涨14.83%，丘钛科技 （1478.HK）涨幅为13.45%。 消息层面，5月12日中美发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》，双方在联合声明中达成多项积极共 识。 至5月12日收盘，哔哩哔哩（9626.HK）涨幅达6.633%，京东（9618.HK）涨幅为6.388%，盘中涨幅一 度超过7%。阿里巴巴（9988.HK）涨幅为6.149%，百度（9888.HK）涨幅为5.027%。 此外，美团（3690.HK） ...

Market Overview - The recent tariff reduction has led to a quick recovery in major indices, with market sentiment expected to rise in the short term due to improved risk appetite, particularly benefiting the export chain and technology sectors[3] - The market's focus is shifting from overseas changes to domestic economic fundamentals, with expectations of continued high growth in export data supported by other stabilizing policies[3] Liquidity and Investment Trends - Current market liquidity remains robust, with trading volumes around 1.2 trillion, indicating a relatively ample liquidity environment[4] - New regulations in the public fund industry are likely to guide institutional funds towards mainstream indices like CSI 300 and CSI 800, while attention on TMT sectors continues due to their growth potential[4] Trade Negotiations Impact - The recent US-China trade talks have resulted in significant concessions, with tariffs on Chinese goods expected to drop from a maximum of 145% to 30% by May 14, 2025, reducing export uncertainties[6] - The negotiations are driven by increasing political and economic pressures in the US, particularly ahead of the midterm elections in November 2025[6] Interest Rate Dynamics - Following the easing of tariff risks, the 10-year bond yield has fallen below 1.70%, with expectations of a short-term rise in rates due to improved risk sentiment from trade negotiations[7] - The monetary policy environment has shifted post the recent rate cuts, with expectations of a steepening yield curve as short-term rates may decline while long-term rates face upward pressure[8] Risk Factors - Potential risks include the possibility of fluctuating US tariff policies, pressure from Europe and other countries on China, and the execution efficiency of domestic policies[8]