Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no specific industry - wide investment rating provided in the report 2) Core Views - For gold, the short - term view is bearish, the medium - term view is sideways, and the intraday view is sideways - bearish. The core logic is that the US has reached tariff agreements with other countries, leading to a rise in market risk appetite and pressure on gold prices [1][3] - For copper, the short - term view is bullish, the medium - term view is bullish, and the intraday view is sideways - bullish. After the market digested the impact of US tariffs, the recovery of the global macro - economy pushed up copper prices [1][4] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Movement**: Last week, the gold price showed an inverted V - shaped trend. The New York gold price hit the $3450 mark in the first half of the week and then fell below $3350 in the second half [3] - **Core Logic**: Market concerns about the US tariff deadline on August 1st and the Fed's interest - rate meeting at the end of July led to the early - week price increase. However, positive trade signals at the end of July reduced trade policy uncertainty, increased market risk appetite, and pressured gold prices. Currently, gold is at a low level since the second quarter, and the $3300 mark's long - short battle can be watched [3] Copper - **Price Movement**: Last week, the copper price also rose first and then fell. After the market digested the impact of US tariffs, the copper price rebounded with the global macro - economic recovery. The Shanghai copper price hit the 80,000 yuan mark, and the London copper price approached $10,000. In the second half of the week, due to increased long - short divergence in the domestic market and strong willingness of copper bulls to close positions, the copper price decreased significantly [4] - **Core Logic**: The inventory of electrolytic copper is low in China and high abroad, and the pattern of stronger domestic and weaker overseas copper prices may continue. The domestic downstream is in the off - season, inventory depletion has slowed down, and with the continuous improvement of macro - expectations, the futures price may maintain a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. Short - term attention can be paid to the long - short battle at the 79,000 yuan mark of Shanghai copper [4]

国债期货集体高开，30年期主力合约涨0.36%，10年期主力合约涨0.17%，5年期主力合约涨0.08%，2年 期主力合约涨0.01%。 ...

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-甲醇】 江苏太仓甲醇市场价2488元/吨，上升20元 /吨；中国甲醇港口样本库存72.58万吨，周下降6.44万吨；中 国甲醇样本生产企业库存33.98万吨，周减少1.25万吨，样本企 业订单待发24.48万吨，周增加0.17万吨；甲醇产能利用率 83.98%，周上升1.56%；下游总产能利用率73.12%，周下降 0.49%。评：国内甲醇开工预期高位上升，下游需求预计较稳， 本周预计港口到货有所增量，港口或累库。内地甲醇市场偏 强，企业竞拍成交顺畅，港口甲醇市场基差偏弱，现货买气一 般。预计甲醇09合约短期震荡运行，上方压力2460一线，建议 观望或反弹短线做空。 【短评-黄金】美国与欧盟达成15%税率关税协议。美国总 统特朗普表示，该协议将对大多数输美欧洲商品征收15%的关 税，其中包括汽车。特朗普表示，欧盟将比此前增加对美国投 资6000亿美元，欧盟将购买美国军事装备，并将购买1500亿美 元的美国能源产品。评：美欧关税谈判或较为顺利，避险情绪 或减弱。美元指数进一步上涨动力不足，利多黄金。黄金依然 震荡偏空，但是短期或有所反弹。关注美元走势，关注美元和 黄金的跷跷板 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The soda ash futures market is in a volatile phase, with short - term stability and potential minor increases in some regions. The glass futures market is also in a volatile trend, with short - term upward potential but facing adjustment risks [6][31]. - For both soda ash and glass futures, the current recommended strategy is to wait and see [6][31]. 3. Summary by Directory Soda Ash Futures - **Mid - term Market Analysis** - The soda ash futures are in a volatile stage. Last week, the domestic soda ash market was stable with a slight upward trend. The industry's operating rate declined slightly, and downstream demand was mainly for immediate needs. Policy supports prices, but over - capacity remains, limiting price increases. The futures are expected to show high - level volatility [6]. - The recommended mid - term strategy is to wait and see [6]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - **Last Week's Strategy Review**：The soda ash futures were volatile last week. The spot market had weak supply - demand conditions, with an operating rate of 84.10%. Supply was expected to increase, and inventory accumulation indicated an oversupply situation. The expected operating range for soda ash 2509 was 1150 - 1300, and it was advisable to wait and see [9]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**：The domestic soda ash market was stable with a slight upward trend last week. The industry's operating rate decreased slightly. Policy supports prices, but over - capacity persists. The expected operating range for soda ash 2509 is 1250 - 1450, and it is recommended to wait and see [10]. - **Related Data** - Data includes China's weekly soda ash operating rate, production, light and heavy - quality inventory, basis (daily), and ammonia - soda production cost in North China [11][15][18]. Glass Futures - **Mid - term Market Analysis** - The glass market is in a volatile trend. Last week, the domestic 5mm float glass market was stable with an upward trend, showing regional price differentiation. Supply decreased slightly but remained abundant, and demand was mainly for immediate needs. The futures market first declined and then rose, with a risk of adjustment. In the short term, prices may still have upward space, and attention should be paid to inventory changes and policy implementation [31]. - The recommended mid - term strategy is to hold an empty position and wait and see [31]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - **Last Week's Strategy Review**：The spot market was stable with a slight upward trend last week, showing regional differentiation. The futures were more volatile, first rising and then falling, and were expected to maintain a weak - volatile trend. The expected operating range for glass 2509 was 1000 - 1200, and it was advisable to hold an empty position and wait and see [34]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**：The domestic 5mm float glass market was stable with an upward trend last week. Supply decreased slightly but remained abundant, and demand was mainly for immediate needs. The futures first declined and then rose, with a risk of adjustment at the weekend. The expected operating range for glass 2509 is 1200 - 1400, and it is recommended to hold an empty position and wait and see [35]. - **Related Data** - Data includes China's weekly float glass production, operating rate, production cost and gross profit using natural - gas - fueled float technology, basis (daily), and ending inventory [37][43][46].

尽管美股市场近期屡创新高，但Verdence Capital Advisors的首席投资官Megan Horneman却担心潜在的麻 烦正在逼近。Megan Horneman认为，投资者对8月1日美国贸易关税期限的态度过于自满，称"这个市场 目前是在为一个完美的局面定价"。除了关税问题，她还列举了美联储政策的不确定性以及技术面上出 现的超买情况作为潜在风险。 交易员Guy Adami也表达了担忧，指出近期推动市场上涨的主要是散户投资者。他表示："就估值而 言，现在的市场确实有点泡沫化了。" 曾任德意志银行高级投资策略师的Megan Horneman指出："如果我们看到[降息]的预期被排除，同时又 不确定关税问题将如何发展，那么市场可能会出现一定的估值修正。"她尤其担心，技术指标表明成长 型股票(包括大型科技股)处于超买状态，"这些因素可能会扰乱当前的反弹行情"。 据悉，标普500指数上周每日均创历史新高。截至上周五收盘，该指数在过去三个月上涨了16%，而以 科技股为主的纳斯达克指数在同一期间上涨了21%。 尽管在短期内持谨慎态度，Megan Horneman自认为是长期看涨者，并将市场回调视为投资机会。她指 ...

金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2025/07/28 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ 从消息面上看，7月22日午间国家能源局针对煤矿超产发布核查通知，要求山西、内蒙古等8个煤炭主产省 超能力生产的煤矿一律责令停产整改，这极大影响了市场对后续焦煤供应的预期，资金大量涌入，推动价 格涨停。 在供应端，5月底6月初山西发生多起矿难，安监力度升级，部分焦煤大矿生产减量，且近期主产区汛期降 雨频繁，露天矿生产和运输受限，国内焦煤生产恢复缓慢。同时，蒙古政坛波动、贸易商亏损、节日闭关 等因素，导致蒙煤进口量环比下降，供应缺口进一步拉大。 需求端来看，钢厂利润可观，铁水产量维持较高水平，对焦煤需求旺盛。并且焦企已发起第二轮提涨，落 地概率较大，下游采购积极，也对焦煤价格形成有力支撑。 不过，后续需关注产能核查政策的实际执行情况，若供应端压力未如预期收紧，焦煤价格可能面临调整 。 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 焦煤四次涨停板分析，市场情绪被点燃！ ib ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported positive operating cash flows of approximately US$90 million for the quarter, leading to a reduction in net debt to below US$100 million [9][10] - The consolidated average sales price decreased to US$127 per tonne from US$139 per tonne in the prior quarter, representing a realization of just under 70% of the average premium low vol index [11][12] - Overall liquidity remained strong at over US$400 million as of June 30, 2025 [10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - South Walker Creek achieved the highest brown production since mid-2022, with over one million tons produced in June alone [4] - Portrail posted a 7% increase in raw production and a 14% increase in coal sales quarter on quarter [5] - Isaac Plains recovered strongly with raw volumes of 932,000 tons, a 60% increase from the prior quarter, although saleable production remains below the run rate to achieve full year guidance [7] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Metallurgical coal pricing conditions remained suppressed due to record levels of Chinese steel exports, which reached 116 million tons in 2025 compared to 111 million tons in 2024 [3] - FOB Australia prices remained range bound, with limited offers in the spot market, influenced by a glut of steel exports from China [13][14] - The Chinese domestic market was well supplied, impacting the pricing dynamics for Australian coal [14] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company has softened the pace on the Eagle Downs project due to current market conditions but continues base level studies to optimize capital and operational parameters [8] - The focus remains on cash preservation and maintaining production guidance despite adverse weather conditions [2][10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the recovery story continuing into the second half of the year, with expectations of significantly higher volumes [10] - The company anticipates that ongoing supply constraints in Australia, combined with potential demand recovery in India post-monsoon, may support market conditions [15] Other Important Information - The company formally objected to the assessed stamp duty related to the Eagle Downs transaction, which was higher than expected [9][10] - The company is working on a budget for 2026, considering potential deferrals based on coal prices [46][48] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the outlook for the strip ratio going forward? - Management indicated a drop in the strip ratio due to a focus on catching up on raw volumes, with expectations of a slight reduction for the remainder of the year [17][18] Question: What is expected from the Eagle Downs project study next year? - The outcome will depend on various factors, including capital requirements and market conditions, with no commitment expected until mid-next year [20][21][22] Question: Can you clarify the net debt position and tax refund? - The net debt of US$99 million included a benefit from a tax refund submitted in late May, which was received in June [40][42] Question: What initiatives are being taken to manage costs and CapEx? - The company is on track with its guidance and is exploring further cost management initiatives while preparing for the budget for 2026 [46][48] Question: How is the company responding to changes in currency exchange rates? - The company believes it can achieve guidance even with current exchange rates, while also expecting benefits from cost reductions in the second half [52][54]

随着《关于深化新能源上网电价市场化改革促进新能源高质量发展的通知》（发改价格〔2025〕136 号，下称136号文）落地，新能源企业正面临前所未有的市场挑战。136号文是中国新能源产业从"规模 扩张"迈向"质效提升"的关键转折点。它撕掉了新能源电价最后的"保护膜"，将风光资源彻底推向市场 检验。阵痛不可避免，但也蕴藏着降本增效、技术升级的巨大机遇。 6月1日是新能源项目的"分水岭"，6月1日之前的存量项目，依然享受政策红利，享有保障性电价；6月1 日之后的增量项目全部入市。政策时间表引发连锁反应。今年2月136号文发布后，一场全国性的"531抢 装潮"席卷新能源行业。企业争相在政策大限前完成并网，锁定最后的固定电价保障。 光伏组件市场应声而变。头部制造商在春节前后启动涨价，每瓦组件价格上调0.02~0.03元。有经销商 透露："一兆瓦项目的光伏组件成本骤增3万元，头部企业甚至要求限期付款，否则合同作废。" 抢装潮背后是收益模型的根本改变。以往光伏电站收益=发电量×固定电价，如今变为 "收益=市场交易 收入+价差补偿-辅助服务分摊"的多变量方程。收益测算复杂度陡增，对企业的预测能力提出全新挑 战。 一方面，随着 ...

银河证券：预计市场维持在震荡偏高中枢运行 金十数据7月28日讯，银河证券表示，在盈利信号尚未确立的环境下，本轮行情受到流动性和市场预期 重要驱动，融资余额自6月底以来持续上行，重返1.9万亿元上方。同时，股市上扬表现带动市场赚钱效 应扩散，进一步助推上涨机会，形成正向反馈。后续关注市场在关键点位附近的支撑力度，预计市场维 持在震荡偏高中枢运行。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The US and the EU have reached a 15% tariff rate agreement. The EU will increase its investment in the US by $600 billion, purchase US military equipment, and buy $750 billion worth of US energy products. This will lead to a short - term decline in the US dollar index [15]. - The central bank conducted 789.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. Market sentiment is expected to ease temporarily next week, but risk appetite will be strong in Q3, and there will still be fluctuations in the bond market [3]. - The 10 - department joint issuance of the plan to promote agricultural product consumption aims to boost agricultural product consumption through various measures. The decline in industrial enterprise profits in June has narrowed, and the new kinetic energy industry represented by the equipment industry has seen rapid profit growth [17][18]. - The export data of Malaysian palm oil is poor, and the domestic oil mill operating rate is expected to increase. Steel prices have risen significantly due to the continuous increase in coking coal and coke prices and the relatively strong fundamentals of finished products, but there is a risk of overvaluation [5]. - Polysilicon is expected to correct in the short term, and it is advisable to consider short - selling lightly through options [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US and the EU have reached a 15% tariff rate agreement. Trump has the right to restore higher tariff levels if other countries fail to fulfill their investment commitments. The EU hopes to continue discussions on steel and aluminum tariffs with the US. The applicable tariff will be the higher of the "most - favored - nation tariff" or 15%. The short - term market risk preference will moderately recover, and the US dollar index will decline in the short term [13][15]. - Investment advice: The US dollar index will decline in the short term [16]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - 10 departments jointly issued the "Implementation Plan for Promoting Agricultural Product Consumption" to promote agricultural product consumption through various measures. In June, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 4.3% year - on - year, and the decline has narrowed. The new kinetic energy industry represented by the equipment industry has seen rapid profit growth. The US and the EU have reached a 15% tariff agreement, which may set an example for upcoming China - US tariffs. A Politburo meeting will be held this week, and attention should be paid to its statements on the economic work in the second half of the year [17][18][19]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to allocate stock indexes evenly [20]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US and the EU have reached a 15% tariff agreement, but there are still differences in key industry tariffs. The US durable goods orders in June decreased by 9.3% month - on - month, better than the expected - 10.7%. The core data excluding Boeing orders performed well. The US - EU tariff negotiation has accelerated, and the risk of further deterioration of the tariff level has decreased, supporting market risk preference [21][22]. - Investment advice: The trade negotiation is moving in a positive direction, and it will still fluctuate strongly in the short term, but attention should be paid to the risk of correction [22]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 789.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 601.8 billion yuan. Market sentiment is expected to ease temporarily next week, and the funds are expected to become looser after the end of the month. However, risk appetite will be strong in Q3, and there will still be fluctuations in the bond market [23]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to cautiously bet on the opportunity of oversold rebound next week. Do not be bearish in the long term, but the market will be volatile in Q3, and it may be too early for allocation buyers to go long at present [24]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal price in the Linfen market is running strongly. The recent futures price increase is mainly due to macro - policies. The National Energy Administration plans to conduct a verification of coal mine production in key coal - producing provinces, but the actual impact of checking over - production may be limited. The price may return to the fundamentals. The supply of coking coal has recovered partially this week, and the coke price has increased for the third time, with some steel mills accepting the increase [25][26]. - Investment advice: The market sentiment for coking coal is still strong, but the risk is high as the price rises significantly. Pay attention to position management [27]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills in the 30th week was 2.2389 million tons, with an operating rate of 62.94%. It is expected to reach 2.3726 million tons and 66.69% in the 31st week. From July 1 - 25, the export of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 9.23% month - on - month. The production of Malaysian palm oil in July is expected to increase, and the inventory will increase significantly. China may export 100,000 - 120,000 tons of soybean oil to India [28][29]. - Investment advice: The data from Malaysia is bearish for palm oil. It is not recommended to short unilaterally. Consider buying put options or waiting for opportunities to go long at low prices. For international soybean oil, focus on US weather and bio - fuel policies. For domestic soybean oil, if exports to India increase, it will support prices [30]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The international sugar price has fluctuated greatly. The expected increase in production in Brazil and India and the rumor of India's export in the 2025/26 season have put pressure on the price. India's sugar export may be unfeasible at current international prices. The sugar mills of Guangxi Nanhua have cleared their warehouses, and the spot price in Guangxi has remained stable with a narrow - range shock. The sugarcane yield in the central - southern region of Brazil has decreased in June [31][33][34]. - Investment advice: The international sugar market is under pressure from supply. The Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to fluctuate mainly. Pay attention to the resistance level of 5900 yuan [35]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - In the first half of 2025, China's cotton product exports increased under pressure. As of mid - July, the pre - sale progress of Brazilian cotton in 2025 was 65%. As of July 17, the weekly net signing of US cotton in the 25/26 season was 30,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 54%. The ICE cotton price is expected to be in a low - level shock pattern in the short term [36][37][39]. - Investment advice: The lack of news about increased import quotas in China, tight old - cotton inventory, and high operating rates in Xinjiang spinning mills will support cotton prices in the short term. However, the demand from inland spinning mills is weakening, and the increase in warehouse receipts and the expectation of increased production in the 25/26 season may limit the upward trend of cotton prices [40]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Argentina has lowered the export tariffs on soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil. The operating rate of domestic oil mills has remained high. China has stopped purchasing US soybeans since the end of May, and the pre - sale of US new - crop soybeans is significantly lower than the normal level in previous years [41][42]. - Investment advice: CBOT soybeans and soybean meal are expected to fluctuate. Focus on the development of the China - US trade war. Soybean meal inventory will continue to accumulate, and the spot basis will remain weak [42]. 3.2.6 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - Most coal mines in Ordos maintained normal production on July 23, and the coal price was stable with a slight increase. The implementation of the over - production policy and high summer temperatures are expected to keep the coal price strong. The power plant's inventory has decreased slightly, and the coal price is expected to return to around the long - term agreement price of 670 yuan [43][44]. - Investment advice: The coal price is expected to remain strong, and it is expected to return to around 670 yuan, the long - term agreement price [44]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The iron ore production and sales of Mount Gibson in the second quarter decreased year - on - year. Affected by coking coal and coke, the iron ore price has fluctuated strongly, but it has encountered resistance after breaking through $105. The long - term increase in the price center of coking coal and coke will suppress the upside potential of iron ore [45]. - Investment advice: Observe the follow - up of the spot market after the price pull - back. The market sentiment fluctuates greatly, so it is recommended to reduce the position [46]. 3.2.8 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The fifth blast furnace of Vietnam's Hoa Phat Group's Dung Quat Steel Complex has been put into operation, increasing the annual production capacity by 5.6 million tons. The total new - signed contract value of the top seven construction central enterprises in the first six months exceeded 5.9 trillion yuan. South Korea will impose temporary anti - dumping duties on hot - rolled steel plates imported from China and Japan. Steel prices have risen significantly, but there is a risk of overvaluation [47][49][50]. - Investment advice: Steel prices will remain strong in the short term. It is recommended to observe cautiously [51]. 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The consumption of corn starch sugar is average, and the operating rate has decreased. The consumption of corn and corn starch has decreased this week [52]. - Investment advice: Starch enterprises may continue to face losses, and the operating rate is expected to remain low. This is not favorable for the rice - flour price difference [53][54]. 3.2.10 Agricultural Products (Corn) - In June 2025, the national industrial feed production was 27.67 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.6%. The proportion of corn in compound feed increased by 2.5 percentage points year - on - year. The "anti - involution" policy in the breeding industry may reduce the corn demand in the new year [55]. - Investment advice: The stalemate in the spot market may continue until the new corn is on the market. The 09 contract may weaken in advance. Hold the short positions of new - crop corn and look for opportunities to add positions on rebounds [55]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange has adjusted the trading limit for the LC2509 contract of lithium carbonate futures. The price of lithium carbonate has increased, and there are rumors about production cuts in some areas. The limit - trading measure is expected to stabilize the market [56][57]. - Investment advice: Before the production cuts are confirmed, there is no upward momentum for the price. Pay attention to the downstream procurement. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of holding inventory and reverse arbitrage [58]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - The EU has started monitoring the trade of scrap copper and aluminum. Teck Resources has lowered the production forecast of its Chilean copper mine. Freeport's Indonesian subsidiary has started its new smelter [59][60][61]. - Investment advice: Unilaterally, be cautious about the repeated macro - expectations. The copper price is expected to remain high and fluctuate. It is recommended to observe. For arbitrage, pay attention to the opportunity of domestic - foreign reverse arbitrage [62]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange has adjusted the trading limit, daily limit, margin, and handling fees for industrial silicon and polysilicon futures. The spot price of polysilicon has increased slightly, but the actual transaction has not changed much. The production of polysilicon is expected to increase in July and August, with a monthly surplus of 100,000 - 200,000 tons [63][64][65]. - Investment advice: The delivery price of polysilicon sets a lower limit for the futures price. However, due to the difficulty of the spot price to keep up with the futures price increase, the short - term price is expected to correct. Consider short - selling lightly through options and look for opportunities to go long after the correction [66]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The production and operating rate of industrial silicon in Xinjiang, the Northwest, Yunnan, and Sichuan have shown different trends. The social inventory has decreased, and the factory inventory has increased. The supply is expected to increase with the resumption of production, and the supply - demand gap will narrow in August [67][68][69]. - Investment advice: After the price increase, the basis of industrial silicon has weakened rapidly. Pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling at high prices or selling out - of - the - money call options [69]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Danantara is considering acquiring the GNI smelter in Indonesia. The nickel price has been strong recently but fell on Friday night. There are different statements about Indonesia's nickel export policy. The price of Philippine nickel ore has decreased, and the price of nickel iron has increased, but the steel mills' purchasing intention is not strong [70][71]. - Investment advice: The nickel price is closely related to macro - sentiment. It is recommended to use options for hedging in unilateral trading. Holders can sell for hedging at high prices [72]. 3.2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - From January to June 2025, the number of electric bicycles recycled and replaced was 8.465 million each. The new national standard for electric bicycles will be implemented on September 1. The overseas macro - situation has limited fluctuations. The supply of primary lead is tight, and the production of secondary lead has increased slightly. The demand from end - users has not improved significantly, but the lead social inventory may turn around [73][74][75]. - Investment advice: In the short term, pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low prices and manage the position well. For arbitrage, it is recommended to observe temporarily [76]. 3.2.17 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The port inventory of zinc concentrate has decreased by 860,000 tons compared with last week. The 0 - 3 cash spread of LME zinc has turned negative, but the注销仓单 is still high. The zinc smelting profit may improve in August, and the supply is expected to remain high. The demand from primary processing industries is differentiated, and the social inventory has increased significantly [77][78]. - Investment advice: Unilaterally, the risk is high, and it is recommended to observe. For arbitrage, pay attention to the opportunity of medium - term calendar spread positive arbitrage. It is recommended to observe in terms of domestic - foreign trading [79]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - On July 25, the closing price of the EUA main contract was 71.34 euros/ton, a 0.65% increase from the previous day and a 2.07% increase from last week. The investment funds reduced their net long positions by 100,000 tons last week. The carbon price is expected to be volatile in the short term [80]. - Investment advice: The EU carbon price will be volatile in the short term [81]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The number of US oil rigs has decreased. The Middle - East oil price has strengthened relative to Brent. The increase in the Middle - East oil export volume is limited. The strong diesel crack spread and EU sanctions on Russia support the Middle - East oil price [82][83]. - Investment advice: The oil price will remain volatile. Pay attention to the OPEC+ meeting and market risk preference [84]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - On July 25, the price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong was slightly adjusted. The supply has increased, and the demand is average. The caustic soda futures price has increased due to the overall positive sentiment in the commodity market, but the increase is limited [85][86]. - Investment advice: The caustic soda valuation is not low, and the speculative demand is difficult to stimulate, resulting in a small increase [86]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The spot price of imported wood pulp is generally stable, with individual prices increasing slightly. The futures price has continued to rise, but the downstream paper mills' follow - up is not strong, and high - price transactions are difficult [87]. - Investment advice: Due to the "anti - involution" policy, low - valued pulp may be targeted by funds. Investors should pay attention to the risks [88]. 3.