新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-08-29 库存小幅降低，碳酸锂基本面表现仍较好 市场分析 2025-08-28，碳酸锂主力合约2511开于77800元/吨，收于78140元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价变化-2.33%。当日 成交量为805585手，持仓量为347063手，前一交易日持仓量351322手，根据SMM现货报价，目前基差为3900元/ 吨（电碳均价-期货）。当日碳酸锂仓单28957手，较上个交易日变化1480手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，电池级碳酸锂报价77500-82500元/吨，较前一交易日变化-1600元/吨，工业级碳酸锂 报价77000-78400元/吨，较前一交易日变化-1600元/吨。6%锂精矿价格880美元/吨，较前一日变化-40美元/吨。据 SMM数据，碳酸锂现货价格继续走低。由于部分下游材料厂前期已进行一定程度备货，本周采购规模较上周有所 收缩。当前下游整体采购心态趋于谨慎，普遍观望以待价格进一步回落。目前处于"金九银十"传统旺季阶段，下 游需求仍具备一定刚性支撑。 根据最新统计周度数据，周度产量降低108吨至19030吨，以锂辉石生产产量小幅增加，以云母生产产量小幅降低 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][4] Core Views - The company reported a slight year-on-year revenue growth of 7.10% in H1 2025, achieving a revenue of 334.91 billion yuan and a net profit of 7.09 billion yuan, which is a 17.28% increase year-on-year [4][5] - The company is expected to benefit from the seasonal demand in the long filament market during the "Golden September and Silver October" period, which is anticipated to enhance profitability [4][6] - The long filament industry is experiencing a low inventory level, which is expected to support price stability and profitability in the medium to long term [6] Financial Summary - For H1 2025, the company produced 396.0 million tons of polyester filament, with a sales volume of 357.2 million tons, resulting in a production and sales rate of 90.2% [5] - The gross profit margin for H1 2025 was 6.42%, with a net profit margin of 2.12% [5] - The company forecasts net profits of 16.09 billion yuan, 20.49 billion yuan, and 25.52 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.06 yuan, 1.34 yuan, and 1.67 yuan [4][8] Market Position and Outlook - The company is positioned well within the long filament industry, with an expected gradual slowdown in production capacity growth, which may enhance long-term profitability [6] - The industry is characterized by high concentration, which is likely to improve pricing power and collaborative effects among leading companies [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views - For building materials, the price is expected to move in a range-bound manner, with its center of gravity shifting downward and showing a weak performance [1][3] - For aluminum ingots, the price is expected to be high and volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and mine - end news [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Building Materials - **Production Impact**: Yunnan and Guizhou's short - process construction steel enterprises' Spring Festival shutdown is from mid - January, and the expected resumption is from the 11th to the 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, and most others will stop around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [2][3] - **Real Estate Transaction**: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - **Market Situation**: Building materials prices continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand, market sentiment is pessimistic, and this year's winter storage is sluggish, providing little price support [3] - **Later Concerns**: Macro policies and downstream demand [3] Aluminum Ingots - **Macro Situation**: The market still worries about the Fed's independence. According to CME's FedWatch tool, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is over 87% [2] - **Demand Side**: As August ends, the "Golden September and Silver October" is approaching. The weekly开工率 of downstream industries shows signs of recovery. The开工率 of domestic aluminum profile leading enterprises increased by 1.5 percentage points to 52%, and the overall开工率 of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.7 percentage points to 60.7%. However, the开工 rate of primary aluminum alloy decreased slightly to 56.4%, and it is expected to have limited upward space in September [3] - **Inventory Situation**: On August 28, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 620,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons from Monday and 24,000 tons from the previous Monday. The absolute price of aluminum ingots dropped slightly, and the receiving sentiment improved, but it has not reached the level to stimulate large - scale replenishment [3] - **Price Outlook**: With repeated macro - interest - rate cut expectations, it is expected to be high in the near term, and subsequent attention should be paid to the inventory - consumption trend. The price is expected to be high and volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment, mine - end news, macro - expectation changes, geopolitical crises, mine - end resumption, and consumption release [3][4]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **沪镍**: The outer market rebounds with support at the 20 - day moving average. The cost line is firm as ore prices remain stable and ferronickel prices rise slightly. Stainless - steel inventory has increased, and the demand boost from the "Golden September and Silver October" is awaited. New energy vehicle production and sales data are good, but the ternary battery loading volume has decreased year - on - year, limiting overall demand. The medium - to - long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged. The 202510 contract will oscillate around the 20 - day moving average, with support from the cost line below [2]. - **不锈钢**: Spot stainless - steel prices are flat. In the short term, nickel ore prices are stable, freight rates are firm, and ferronickel prices rise slightly, making the cost line firm. Stainless - steel inventory has increased, and the consumption situation during the "Golden September and Silver October" should be monitored. The 202510 contract will oscillate widely around the 20 - day moving average [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Price Overview** - **Nickel and Stainless - steel Prices**: On August 28, the Shanghai nickel futures main contract closed at 120,990 yuan, down 770 yuan from the previous day; the LME nickel closed at 15,300 US dollars, up 110 US dollars; the stainless - steel futures main contract remained unchanged at 12,850 yuan. Spot prices of various nickel products decreased, while cold - rolled stainless - steel prices remained flat [12]. **Inventory Situation** - **Nickel Inventory**: As of August 28, LME nickel inventory was 209,676 tons, an increase of 456 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel warehouse receipts were 22,013 tons, a decrease of 12 tons. The total inventory was 231,689 tons, an increase of 444 tons [15]. - **Stainless - steel Inventory**: As of August 22, the national stainless - steel inventory was 1.0917 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,800 tons. The 300 - series inventory was 658,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14,200 tons. On August 28, the stainless - steel futures warehouse receipts were 100,431 tons, a decrease of 420 tons [18][19]. **Raw Material Prices** - **Nickel Ore and Ferronickel Prices**: On August 28, the price of red - clay nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) was 57 US dollars per wet ton, and that of Ni0.9% was 29 US dollars per wet ton, both unchanged from the previous day. High - nickel ferronickel was 942 yuan per nickel point, and low - nickel ferronickel was 3,440 yuan per ton, also unchanged [22]. **Production Cost** - **Stainless - steel Production Cost**: The traditional production cost was 13,016 yuan, the scrap - steel production cost was 13,542 yuan, and the low - nickel + pure - nickel production cost was 16,644 yuan [24]. **Import Cost** - **Nickel Import Cost**: The converted import price was 123,156 yuan per ton [27]. **Influencing Factors** - **Positive Factors**: Expectations of demand boost during the "Golden September and Silver October", anti - involution policies, and cost support at 120,000 yuan [7]. - **Negative Factors**: A significant year - on - year increase in domestic production, no new demand growth points, a long - term oversupply pattern, and a year - on - year decrease in ternary battery loading volume [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in gold and oil prices, highlighting the factors influencing these markets, particularly the weakening US dollar and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][2]. Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - As of August 29, the spot gold price slightly retreated to around $3410.37 per ounce after reaching a five-week high of $3423.02 on August 28, driven by a weakening dollar [1]. - The dollar index fell by 0.3% to 97.85, marking its third consecutive day of decline, which made gold cheaper for international buyers and stimulated demand [1][2]. - Concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve and the influx of safe-haven funds have contributed to the rise in gold prices, with the market anticipating a 25 basis point rate cut in September [2][4]. Group 2: Technical Analysis and Trading Strategies - The technical analysis indicates that gold has broken through the significant resistance level of $3400, suggesting potential for further upward movement, although a correction may be expected soon [2][4]. - Short-term trading strategies recommend buying on dips around $3405-3408 and selling on rebounds near $3438-3440, with specific stop-loss levels set to manage risk [4]. - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring key economic data, such as the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, which could influence market sentiment and gold prices [2][4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Carbonate Lithium**: The spot price of carbonate lithium is falling, and the futures price has also dropped significantly. The "Golden September and Silver October" traditional peak season is approaching, and downstream demand has certain rigid support. The supply reduction speed has slowed down, and the inventory decline rate is slower than expected. The price is still hard to stabilize, and it is recommended to seize hedging opportunities [2][5]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply is steadily increasing, while the demand is weak. The inventory is difficult to decrease, and the spot price is expected to continue to operate weakly and stably. The futures price is in a confrontation between weak reality and strong policy expectations, and is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range [6]. - **Polysilicon**: There is a confrontation between strong policy expectations and weak reality, and the support of policy expectations has weakened. The demand is weak, but the spot price has not changed yet. It is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can consider participating with a stop - loss [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Spot Price 3.1.1 Plate Strategy Recommendation | Variety | Market Logic | Support Level | Pressure Level | Market Judgment | Reference Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Carbonate Lithium 11 | Driven by news | 72,000 - 75,000 | 88,000 - 90,000 | Wide - range volatile operation | Seize selling hedging opportunities, downstream cathode material enterprises focus on low - level stockpiling or buying hedging [15] | | Industrial Silicon 11 | Confrontation between weak reality and strong policy expectations | 8,200 - 8,300 | 8,900 - 9,000 | Range - bound oscillation | Adopt a range - bound thinking, and it is more recommended to sell slightly out - of - the - money put options at low levels [15] | | Polysilicon 11 | Insufficient support from policy expectations, increasing concerns about weak demand reality | 45,000 - 46,000 | 52,000 - 53,000 | High - level oscillation | Wait and see [15] | 3.1.2 Futures and Spot Price Changes | Variety | Closing Price | Increase/Decrease Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | Warehouse Receipts | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Carbonate Lithium | 78,140 | - 0.91% | 805,585 | 347,063 | - 4,259 | 28,957 | | Industrial Silicon | 8,570 | 0.53% | 293,193 | 273,754 | - 1,804 | 50,656 | | Polysilicon | 49,665 | - 0.10% | 376,304 | 143,912 | - 10,625 | 6,880 | [16] 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Carbonate Lithium Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory Situation**: This week, the production of carbonate lithium was 19,030 tons, a decrease of 108 tons from the previous week. The total sample inventory was 141,136 tons, a decrease of 407 tons. The supply reduction speed has slowed down, and the inventory decline rate is slower than expected [2]. - **Downstream Situation**: The "Golden September and Silver October" traditional peak season is approaching, and downstream demand has certain rigid support. After the rapid increase in downstream inventory, the probability of further large - scale replenishment may decrease [2]. 3.2.2 Industrial Silicon Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory Situation**: The supply is steadily increasing, and the industry operating rate has recovered to over 60%. The inventory is difficult to decrease, and the exchange warehouse receipts increased last week [6]. - **Downstream Situation**: Downstream demand is weak. The demand for polysilicon is mainly for rigid procurement, the demand for organic silicon is weak, and the aluminum alloy is in the traditional off - season. Although the export of industrial silicon is increasing, it has limited impact on the overall demand [6]. 3.2.3 Polysilicon Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory Situation**: No specific production and inventory data are provided, but it is mentioned that the battery cell inventory has increased for two consecutive weeks [9]. - **Downstream Situation**: The new photovoltaic installed capacity has declined significantly since June, and domestic installation projects have been postponed. The overseas stocking window for battery cells is coming to an end, and the demand is weak [9].

Core Viewpoint - The automotive market is experiencing a challenging period in July and August, traditionally seen as a sales off-season, with varying performance among different brands [1][10]. Group 1: Sales Performance - Overall customer traffic in August decreased compared to July, with a drop of 10% in foot traffic [2]. - Despite the decline in customer visits, the number of repeat visits increased by 10%, indicating sales managers are actively working to recover lost sales [2]. - Some brands reported stable sales performance, completing order targets without significant issues, while others struggled to meet sales goals [6][12]. Group 2: Pricing and Subsidies - Price reductions have been observed as manufacturers provided incentives to dealers, leading to a more competitive pricing environment [2][5]. - Local subsidies remain stable, but there are concerns about the potential discontinuation of government support, which is a significant factor for customers [9][11]. - The market is highly competitive, with customers focusing on price and new models, leading to a price war among brands [5][10]. Group 3: Market Outlook - September is expected to see an increase in customer traffic as brands push to meet quarterly targets, but the market remains divided due to ongoing competitive pressures [3][10]. - The upcoming October is anticipated to bring a sales peak as brands may increase discounts to stimulate sales, coinciding with the traditional peak season [10][12]. - There is a general optimism for Q4 as various policy-driven incentives are expected to boost consumer purchasing behavior [6][12].

Summary of the Conference Call Company and Industry Overview - The conference call pertains to the polysilicon and silicon industry, specifically focusing on 合盛硅业 (Hesheng Silicon Industry) and its operations in industrial silicon and organic silicon production [2][4][10]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Market Conditions**: The industrial silicon supply and demand have both decreased due to a decline in polysilicon demand and cyclical fluctuations in organic silicon, leading to price pressures [2][4]. 2. **Production Rates**: The company maintains an industrial silicon operating rate of 60%-70%, with significant year-on-year growth in organic silicon production [2][5]. 3. **Future Production Targets**: For the first half of 2025, the company expects to produce 660,000 tons of industrial silicon and 730,000 tons of organic silicon, with annual targets of 1.5 million tons for both [2][7]. 4. **Profit Margins**: The overall gross margin for the second quarter was close to zero, with industrial silicon margins at approximately 15%-16% and organic silicon margins at 17%-18%, showing year-on-year improvement despite price declines due to tariffs [2][11]. 5. **Price Expectations**: Industrial silicon prices are expected to rise slightly to the range of 9,000-10,000 RMB/ton in the fourth quarter, although there are risks of extreme price increases due to policy and weather uncertainties [2][14]. 6. **Impact of Drought**: The ongoing drought in the southwest region has affected industrial silicon prices and operating rates, with the southwest operating rate below 40% [5][14]. 7. **Investment Plans**: The company plans to invest approximately 7-8 billion RMB, contingent on refinancing strategies, including bond financing [3][24]. 8. **Cost Increases**: The cost of silicon ore increased by 27% due to a reliance on self-supply, with over 80% of ore sourced internally [2][16]. 9. **Sales Performance**: In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a sales volume of 730,000 tons, with a target of 1.5 million tons for the year [9][10]. 10. **Organic Silicon Market Outlook**: The organic silicon market is expected to see a recovery in production and sales in the second half of the year, following significant maintenance and upgrades in the first half [13][12]. Additional Important Information - **Solar Business Impact**: The company incurred approximately 500 million RMB in depreciation and 400 million RMB in losses due to the suspension of its solar business, with sales of components amounting to around 400 million RMB [2][15]. - **Cash Flow and Financing**: The company is exploring market-based refinancing options to meet significant funding needs for projects, including coal utilization initiatives [28][24]. - **Silicon Carbide Development**: The silicon carbide business is in the R&D phase, with expected sales revenue between 50 million to 100 million RMB this year [21]. - **Electricity Costs**: The self-supplied electricity price is approximately 0.18 RMB/kWh, while the external purchase price is around 0.31 RMB/kWh, affecting overall production costs [27]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting the company's operational status, market conditions, and future expectations in the polysilicon and silicon industry.

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For Shanghai Nickel 2510, it will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average, with support from the cost line below [2]. - For Stainless Steel 2510, it will have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [4]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Overview - **Futures Prices**: On August 27, the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 121,760 (up 1390 from the previous day), the LME Nickel was 15,190 (down 90), the Stainless Steel main contract was 12,850 (up 10). The SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 123,150 (up 1700), 1 Jinchuan nickel was 124,400 (up 1650), 1 imported nickel was 122,300 (up 1750), and nickel beans were 124,350 (up 1750). Cold - rolled stainless steel prices in different regions remained unchanged [12]. Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - As of August 22, the SHFE nickel inventory was 26,943 tons, with futures inventory at 22,552 tons (a decrease of 19 tons and an increase of 411 tons respectively). On August 27, LME nickel inventory was 209,220 (up 72), SHFE nickel warehouse receipts were 22,025 (down 61), and the total inventory was 231,245 (up 11) [14][15]. Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - On August 22, the Wuxi inventory was 61,460 tons, the Foshan inventory was 315,400 tons, and the national inventory was 1,091,700 tons (a month - on - month increase of 12,800 tons). The 300 - series inventory was 658,700 tons (a month - on - month increase of 14,200 tons). On August 27, the stainless steel warehouse receipts were 100,851 (down 175) [19][20]. Nickel Ore and Ferronickel Prices - On August 27, the price of red - soil nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) was 57 dollars/wet ton, and (Ni0.9%) was 29 dollars/wet ton, both unchanged from the previous day. High - nickel ferronickel was 942 yuan/nickel point (up 5.5), and low - nickel ferronickel was 3440 yuan/ton (up 20) [23]. Stainless Steel Production Costs - The traditional cost was 13,041, the scrap steel production cost was 13,602, and the low - nickel + pure nickel cost was 16,747 [25]. Nickel Import Cost Calculation - The imported price was converted to 122,341 yuan/ton [28]. Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: There is an expectation of demand boost during the "Golden September and Silver October" period, and there are anti - involution policies. The cost line has support at 120,000 [7]. - **Negative Factors**: Domestic production continues to rise significantly year - on - year, there are no new demand growth points, and the long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged. The installed capacity of ternary batteries has decreased year - on - year [7].

Supply and Demand - As of August 22, overseas PX operating rates have significantly rebounded, with domestic PX load at 84.6% (+0.3%) and Asian PX load at 76.3% (+2.2%) [2] - As of August 22, PTA operating rates have decreased to 72.9% (-3.1%) [3] Market Outlook - Domestic and international PX maintenance units are gradually restarting, leading to an expected increase in PX supply; however, the downstream PTA sector is experiencing many unplanned maintenance due to low processing fees, resulting in a marginal weakening of PX supply and demand expectations in August [4] - Despite continuous destocking of PX since the second quarter, there is currently not much absolute inventory pressure, and the traditional demand peak season in September and October is expected to support downstream polyester load recovery [4] - Recent price support for PX is influenced by frequent device news, but absolute prices are also pressured by short-term oil price declines and a weak commodity market atmosphere; the strategy suggests a short-term wait-and-see approach for PX11, focusing on low long opportunities and rolling expansion of PX-SC price spreads [4] Spot Market - On August 27, the Asian PX procurement atmosphere was relatively good, providing some support; however, geopolitical tensions and a rapid drop in overnight crude oil prices led to insufficient cost support, resulting in a weak PX price during the day [1] - PX prices at the end of the day were 855.50 USD/ton for October and 851.50 USD/ton for November, with a closing price of 854.17 USD/ton, down 9.83 USD/ton (CFR China) [1] - On August 27, Asian PX fell by 10 USD/ton to 854 USD/ton, equivalent to 6999 RMB/ton; PXN is around 264 USD/ton [1]