Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have entered a new round of increases, becoming increasingly "unattainable" as they reach historical highs, driven by multiple factors including expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, weakened dollar confidence, and ongoing geopolitical risks [2][4][5]. Price Trends - Since the beginning of the year, international spot gold prices have risen from $2,625 per ounce to over $3,600 per ounce, with a cumulative increase of over $1,000 per ounce and a year-to-date rise of 40% [2][4]. - On September 9, spot gold prices reached a record high of $3,674.78 per ounce, with domestic gold concept stocks experiencing significant gains [2][4]. - The retail price of physical gold has also seen a notable increase, with prices for gold jewelry surpassing historical peaks, reaching over 1,070 RMB per gram [2]. Factors Driving Gold Prices - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to three main factors: expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, concerns over the Fed's independence affecting the dollar index, and rising risk aversion due to fiscal and political pressures [5]. - The downward revision of U.S. non-farm employment data has intensified market bets on multiple rate cuts by the Fed within the year [5]. - Global central banks have been increasing their gold reserves, providing long-term support for gold prices. As of August, China's central bank's gold reserves increased to 74.02 million ounces, marking the tenth consecutive month of increases [6]. Long-term Outlook - Many institutions believe that the upward trend in gold prices is likely to continue in the medium to long term, driven by the weakening of the dollar-based credit monetary system and ongoing geopolitical instability [8]. - Analysts predict that gold prices could reach $3,800 per ounce in the near future, with significant support from ongoing central bank purchases and rising demand for safe-haven assets [8][9]. - Major financial institutions have raised their target prices for gold, with forecasts suggesting prices could reach between $4,000 and $5,000 per ounce by 2026 under extreme risk scenarios [9]. Investment Strategy - Given the low correlation of gold with other major asset classes, it is recommended that investors consider gold as a fundamental component of their asset allocation, employing strategies such as dollar-cost averaging or buying on dips [9].

Market Overview - Gold prices have experienced significant volatility, reaching a historical high before a sharp decline of $55, testing the $3600 support level [1][15] - After hitting a high near $3658, gold prices faced another drop, indicating a bearish trend in the short term [2][14] Recent Performance - Gold broke previous highs, continuing its upward trend before experiencing a sudden drop during the U.S. trading session [6][7] - The market saw a vertical decline over two hours, with a drop of $50, reflecting heightened market instability [8] Technical Analysis - Current support levels are being tested at $3614 and $3578, with potential for a rebound [13][14] - Resistance levels are identified at $3648 and $3675, where short positions may be considered [10][14] Influencing Factors - The recent escalation of conflict in the Middle East, particularly an airstrike in Qatar, has increased risk aversion, contributing to gold's price surge [15] - U.S. non-farm payroll data showed a significant decline, indicating a weakening labor market and supporting expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut [15] Economic Indicators - Upcoming economic data, including the U.S. PPI and wholesale sales figures, are expected to impact market sentiment and gold prices [17] - The CPI results have shown negative figures, indicating ongoing deflationary pressures in the economy [18][19]

金银在迭创新高后迎来短期波动，截至10日10:40，纽约金主力合约下跌0.30%，报3670.6美元/盎司；纽 约银逆势小幅上涨0.28%，报41.455美元/盎司。内盘方面，沪金微跌0.03%，收报831.44元/克；沪银下 跌0.80%，报9787元/千克。此次价格波动属于连续冲高后的正常技术性整理，市场整体仍处于强势格 局。 消息面上，美国非农就业数据遭遇自2000年以来最大幅度下修，截至3月的一年间的非农就业人数大幅 下修91.1万，平均每月少增加近7.6万个岗位，休闲酒店、商业服务及零售业成为重灾区。此外，结合6 月、7月、8月三个月的月均新增就业仅2.9万、远低于均衡水平的疲软表现，进一步强化了经济增长放 缓的预期，为特朗普政府施压美联储降息提供了关键依据，市场对年底前降息75个基点的预期概率已接 近70%。同时，数据连续大幅修正引发对官方统计质量及"数据政治化"的担忧，推升避险情绪，将促使 资金涌入黄金等传统保值资产。 地缘局势方面，当地时间9月9日，以色列对卡塔尔发动空袭，出动15架战机打击哈马斯高级领导人，造 成五名成员死亡。白宫称仅在行动前一刻获知并表示遗憾，卡塔尔方面保留回应的权利。此事 ...

Group 1 - The external environment has shown disturbances, leading to a slight increase in risk aversion, with significant rises in London gold prices driven by political and economic fluctuations in Europe and the US, causing a decline in investor confidence in sovereign debt [1] - The A-share market experienced a technical correction last week, influenced by these external factors, while the US stock market showed less volatility due to strong technology sector performance [1] - Last week, the market saw adjustments with the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuating, breaking below the 20-day moving average mid-week but recovering above it by Friday, while the Shenzhen Component Index outperformed, closing above the 5-day moving average [1] Group 2 - The market is currently undergoing technical consolidation after a continuous upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing signs of accelerated upward movement after surpassing the 2021 market peak, although profit-taking has emerged, indicating a divergence between bulls and bears [2] - Despite short-term fluctuations, the medium-term trend remains unchanged, with continued buying momentum expected, suggesting that structural market opportunities may still be anticipated [2]

Group 1: Gold Price Trends - On September 5, international gold prices fell to $3530 per ounce, a decrease of nearly $31 from the previous day [1] - Domestic gold prices also dropped, with real-time prices falling to 806.1 yuan per gram [1] - The recycling prices for various gold types decreased, with 18K gold at approximately 573 yuan per gram and 14K gold at around 443 yuan per gram [1] Group 2: Retail Gold Prices - Major gold retailers like Chow Tai Fook and Chow Sang Sang maintained high prices, with gold priced at 1060 yuan and 1062 yuan per gram respectively [1] - There are significant price differences among retailers in the same city, with prices ranging from 1012 yuan to 1060 yuan per gram [1] - Banks offer gold bars as investment options, with prices varying from 634 yuan to 835 yuan per gram [1] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Predictions - The recent drop in gold prices is viewed as a normal correction after a 36% increase earlier this year [3][10] - Factors contributing to the gold price increase include potential U.S. interest rate cuts and global economic instability [3][4] - Major financial institutions like Morgan Stanley and UBS predict significant future increases in gold prices, with targets of $3800 and $3700 per ounce respectively [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - The commodity market is experiencing a significant divergence, with oil prices plummeting to a new low since May, while gold prices have surged to a historic high above $3600, reflecting contrasting market dynamics and economic signals [1][3]. Oil Market Analysis - WTI crude oil has fallen below $62, dropping 2.5% in a single day and 3.3% for the week, while Brent crude has also dipped below $65.50 [3]. - The decline in oil prices is attributed to three main pressures: OPEC+ production increase expectations, unexpected rise in U.S. oil inventories by 2.4 million barrels, and ongoing weak demand forecasts due to disappointing U.S. employment data [4]. Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices have surpassed $3600, marking a historic high with a daily increase of 1.5%, driven by heightened expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut following poor U.S. employment data and a rise in the unemployment rate to its highest level since 2021 [3][4]. - The surge in gold prices indicates a growing market sentiment of economic uncertainty and increased risk aversion [4]. Broader Economic Implications - The divergence in commodity prices reflects a significant economic transition, with traditional energy sources declining and the value of safe-haven assets like gold becoming more pronounced [5]. - The current market conditions highlight a stark contrast between OPEC+ efforts to maintain production levels and the Federal Reserve's potential rate cuts aimed at stabilizing the economy, leading to a fragmented market environment [4][5]. Investment Recommendations - Caution is advised for energy sector investments ahead of the upcoming OPEC+ meeting, as a decision to increase production could push oil prices further down towards the $60 mark [6]. - For gold, it is suggested to consider buying on dips during the Fed's rate-cutting cycle, while being wary of short-term overbought conditions [6]. - For base metals, it is recommended to wait for clearer signals from potential Chinese economic stimulus before making investment decisions [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide overall industry investment ratings. Instead, it offers specific investment suggestions for different varieties within various sectors. 2. Core Viewpoints - The A-share market may enter a high-level oscillation pattern after significant gains, and the volatility has increased. The bond market is likely to remain range-bound, and the precious metals market has ended its continuous rise and slightly declined. The shipping index is weakly oscillating, and the steel and iron ore markets are affected by supply and demand factors. The energy and chemical sectors show different trends, and the agricultural products market is influenced by factors such as supply expectations and seasonal reports [2]. 3. Summary by Categories Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: The current basis rates of IF, IH, IC, and IM main contracts are -0.36%, -0.37%, -0.77%, and -0.54% respectively. The A-share market may enter a high-level oscillation pattern, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The 10-year treasury bond interest rate may oscillate between 1.74% - 1.8%, and the T2512 contract may fluctuate between 107.6 - 108.4. It is recommended to conduct range operations [2]. - **Precious Metals**: The safe-haven sentiment has subsided, and the precious metals market has ended its continuous rise and slightly declined. It is recommended to buy gold cautiously at low prices or use out-of-the-money call options for hedging. For silver, short-term high-sell and low-buy operations are recommended [2]. Black - **Steel**: The steel price is affected by production restrictions and off-season demand. It is recommended to pay attention to the long position of the steel-ore ratio. The iron ore price fluctuates with the steel price, and it is recommended to conduct range operations [2]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot price is oscillating weakly. It is recommended to reduce short positions appropriately and conduct arbitrage operations [2]. - **Coke**: The seventh round of price increases by mainstream coking plants has been implemented, and the coking profit continues to recover. It is recommended to reduce short positions appropriately and conduct arbitrage operations [2]. Non-Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price center has risen, and the spot trading is weak. The main contract reference range is 79,000 - 81,000 [2]. - **Aluminum and Its Alloys**: The supply of aluminum is highly certain, and it is necessary to focus on the fulfillment of peak-season demand and the inventory inflection point. The main contract reference ranges for aluminum, aluminum alloy, zinc, tin, nickel, and stainless steel are provided [2]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The EIA inventory increase and supply increment expectations put pressure on the oil price. It is recommended to take a short position. The support levels for WTI, Brent, and SC are provided [2]. - **Other Chemicals**: Different chemicals such as urea, PX, PTA, short fiber, bottle chip, ethylene glycol, caustic soda, PVC, benzene, styrene, synthetic rubber, LLDPE, PP, methanol, and others have different trends and corresponding investment suggestions [2]. Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: The abundant harvest expectation suppresses the US soybean price, while the domestic expectation remains positive. It is recommended to arrange long positions for the 01 contract. The palm oil is waiting for the MPOB report, and the short-term oscillation range is provided [2]. - **Livestock and Poultry**: The supply and demand contradiction in the pig market is limited, and the market shows a weakly oscillating pattern. The corn price is oscillating and adjusting, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [2]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: The overseas sugar supply is expected to be loose, and the raw sugar price has broken through the support level. It is recommended to gradually close short positions. The cotton inventory is low, and it is recommended to wait and see. The egg market has some demand support, but the long-term trend is still bearish. The apple price is running around 8,350, and the jujube price has dropped significantly. The soda ash and glass markets are in a bearish pattern, and it is recommended to hold short positions [2]. Special Commodities - **Rubber**: The rubber market has a strong fundamental situation, and the price is oscillating at a high level. It is recommended to short at high positions if the raw material price rises smoothly [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot price has risen slightly, and the main price fluctuation range is expected to be between 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton [2]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: The self-discipline supports the polysilicon price to rise temporarily, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market sentiment has improved, and the fundamental situation remains in a tight balance. It is recommended to wait and see [2].

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices are currently trading around $3,553 after a slight pullback, with a previous close at $3,545.63, down 0.4% [1] - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report is expected to influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, impacting gold prices [1] - A weak labor market is increasing expectations for interest rate cuts, which supports gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [1] - The U.S. dollar index rose by 0.16% to 98.28, putting pressure on gold prices as a stronger dollar reduces gold's attractiveness to holders of other currencies [1] - U.S. Treasury yields fell, with the 2-year yield down 2.4 basis points to 3.59% and the 10-year yield down 4.4 basis points to 4.167%, both hitting four-month lows [1] - The flattening yield curve, with the spread between 2-year and 10-year yields narrowing to 58 basis points, often precedes Fed rate cuts [1] Market Sentiment - Gold prices have declined due to profit-taking by traders after a strong rally, with many investors cashing in at high points [2] - Initial jobless claims rose to 237,000, exceeding expectations and reflecting a cooling labor market, which has led to cautious market sentiment [2] - The ADP National Employment Report indicated only 54,000 private sector jobs were added in August, significantly below the expected 65,000, further supporting the view of a slowing labor market [4] - The probability of a Fed rate cut in September is now close to 100%, up from 87% a week prior, driven by the increasing likelihood of economic slowdown [4] Technical Analysis - The daily chart shows a small bearish candle, indicating a temporary pause in the upward trend, but the overall bullish structure remains intact [7] - Short-term price movements have seen gold prices rise from $3,320 to a peak of $3,578, with recent fluctuations testing support around $3,511 [7] - Traders are advised to adopt a cautious approach ahead of the non-farm payroll data release, with potential trading ranges identified between $3,530 and $3,560 [8]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, alongside increased geopolitical tensions and market uncertainties, leading investors to seek gold as a safe-haven asset [1][3][7]. Factors Driving Gold Price Increase - On September 3, the New York gold futures contract surpassed $3,616.9 per ounce, marking a historical high, driven primarily by the anticipation of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [1]. - Following the release of July's core inflation data, market expectations for a September rate cut by the Federal Reserve rose significantly, as indicated by Chairman Powell's signals regarding potential adjustments to monetary policy [3]. - The labor market's slowdown, evidenced by a significant drop in non-farm payrolls and an increase in unemployment rates, has further solidified expectations for a rate cut [3][5]. Market Sentiment and Investment Behavior - The recent dismissal of a Federal Reserve board member by President Trump has raised concerns about the independence of the Fed, prompting investors to turn to gold as a financial safety net [7][8]. - Increased inflows into gold ETFs reflect heightened risk aversion among investors, paralleling a trend of central banks, including China's, accumulating gold to bolster their currencies' credibility [8]. Short-term and Long-term Market Outlook - In the short term, the focus remains on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, with potential for profit-taking or market corrections following any announced rate cuts [9]. - Long-term trends indicate a shift in gold's role from a financial asset to a monetary asset, driven by rising U.S. debt levels and ongoing skepticism regarding the dollar's credibility [11]. Recommendations for Investors - Ordinary investors should view gold as a strategic asset in their portfolios, particularly during periods of uncertainty, rather than a means for quick profits [13]. - Investment strategies should emphasize long-term holdings and gradual accumulation of gold, akin to a systematic savings approach, to mitigate risks associated with market volatility [15].

Core Viewpoint - The strong performance of Western Gold is attributed to rising international gold prices, significant resource expansion through acquisitions, and increased market interest in gold as a safe-haven asset [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Western Gold's stock closed at 29.82 yuan, with a daily increase of 10.00% and a trading volume of 1.722 billion yuan [1]. - Since September 1, the stock has seen a remarkable increase of 49.70% over just five trading days, reaching a new high of 29.82 yuan [1]. Group 2: Market Drivers - The primary drivers for the stock's performance include the continuous rise in international gold prices, which have reached historical highs, benefiting gold mining companies like Western Gold [1]. - The company is expected to significantly expand its resource reserves through the acquisition of Xinjiang Meisheng, which includes 78.7 tons of gold resources, leading to a substantial increase in gold reserves [2]. - The rising risk aversion in the market has renewed interest in gold as a traditional safe-haven asset, resulting in increased capital inflow into the gold sector [1]. Group 3: Corporate Developments - Western Gold is advancing a major asset restructuring plan, proposing a cash acquisition of 100% of Xinjiang Meisheng for 1.655 billion yuan, which is expected to enhance the company's resource reserves significantly [2]. - The company plans to produce an estimated 3.3 tons of gold annually post-acquisition, further strengthening its market position [2]. - A deep report from Minsheng Securities has been released, providing a recommendation rating that bolsters market confidence in the company [2].