Report Investment Rating - No information provided Core View - The price of lithium carbonate is falling, and the demand - side production increase is small. The support below the price is weak. In the short term, the futures price may continue to be under pressure [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Compounds - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 71,200 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 69,100 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan [1] - Futures prices of lithium carbonate contracts from 2508 to 2512 are all falling, with the 2508 contract closing at 67,300 yuan, down 3.19% [1] Lithium Ore - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) price is 760 yuan, with no change [1] - Lithium mica prices range from 1,085 yuan to 1,710 yuan depending on Li₂O content; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone prices range from 5,275 yuan to 6,200 yuan and are falling [2] Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 32,595 yuan, down 35 yuan; the average prices of ternary materials 811, 523, and 613 are rising [2] Price Differences - The difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,100 yuan; the difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is 3,360 yuan, up 1,050 yuan [2] Inventory - Total inventory (weekly) is 141,726 tons, down 1,444 tons; smelter inventory (weekly) is 51,958 tons, down 3,427 tons; downstream inventory (weekly) is 45,888 tons, up 3,073 tons; other inventory (weekly) is 43,880 tons, down 1,090 tons; registered warehouse receipts (daily) are 14,443 tons, up 1,840 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 68,421 yuan, and the profit is 7,529 yuan; the profit of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is - 6,997 yuan [3]

TOM集团(02383)：上半年收入约3.39亿港元，同比增长1.13%；净亏损9869.8万港元，同比收窄 32.13%。 金融界8月6日消息，周三港股小幅低开，恒生指数跌0.15%报24864.15点，恒生科技指数跌0.31%报 5503.81点，国企指数跌0.21%报8932.05点，红筹指数跌0.1%报4224.28点。 盘面上，大型科技股走势分化，阿里巴巴跌0.34%，腾讯控股涨0.18%，京东集团涨0.16%，小米集团跌 0.28%，网易跌0.57%，美团跌0.08%，快手涨0.25%，哔哩哔哩跌0.77%；受业绩提振，南方锰业涨 14%，五菱汽车涨13.5%；创新药概念普遍高开，晶泰控股涨15%；芯片股多股上涨，中电华大科技涨 超3%；保险股普涨，保诚涨超1%。 企业新闻 创科实业(00669.HK)：上半年营业额78亿美元，同比增加7.5%；净利润6.28亿美元，同比增加14.2%。 百胜中国(09987.HK)：2025第二季度取得收入28亿美元，同比增长4%；经营利润3.04亿美元，同比增加 14%。 上美股份(02145.HK)：发布盈喜，预计中期收入约40.9亿-41.1亿元，同比增约 ...

8月以来，工业品期货价格纷纷回落，一度火热的"反内卷行情"来去匆匆。 工业品期货价格较高位有所回落，但也有部分品种多空资金仍在拉锯，出现尾盘跳涨行情。 从普涨到分化，投机资金退潮 整体看来，工业品期货价格较高位有所回落，但也有部分品种多空资金仍在拉锯，出现尾盘跳涨行情。 其中，焦煤期货作为此轮"反内卷行情"的领涨品种，在7月因国家能源局煤矿超产核查政策预期一度单 周暴涨35%，主力合约最高触及1318元/吨。进入8月后，随着政策细则未达市场预期，叠加焦煤供需格 局宽松，价格快速回落至1150元/吨附近。 但在8月5日尾盘，焦煤期货主力合约由跌转涨，收报1182元/吨，涨6.9%。远月5个合约全部涨停。 从盘后持仓数据看，资金流向上，焦煤期货主力合约持仓量为52.6万手，较前一交易日增加3.8万手。 截至8月5日收盘，碳酸锂期货收报6.78万元/吨，较7月25日触及的7.92万元/吨高点，区间跌幅达 16.8%。 多晶硅、焦煤等前期领涨品种也震荡回落，截至8月1日当周，多晶硅期货主力合约和焦煤期货主力合约 周累计跌幅分别为3.6%和17.1%。 经过前期的大涨，工业品期货整体维持高位震荡，这轮由政策预期与资金炒 ...

智通财经APP获悉，港股三大指数早盘探底回升，午后涨幅曾进一步扩大。截止收盘，恒生指数涨 0.68%或169.08点，报24902.53点，全日成交额为2293.99亿港元；恒生国企指数涨0.65%，报8951.07 点；恒生科技指数涨0.73%，报5521.07点。 国信证券研报指出，港股今年资金面形成了内资、外资共振式的宽松。从周期涨幅、AH溢价率、宽基 指数估值三个方面比较，港股对A股依然处在估值合理范畴，且科技、医药板块从长期看依然有较大的 修复空间。 蓝筹股表现 联想集团(00992)创逾4个月新高，截至收盘，涨5.09%，报11.14港元，成交额16.91亿港元，贡献恒指6.8 点。里昂证券发布研报称，继7月5日上调预期后，进一步再度上调联想集团4-6月的盈利预期。原因在 于，联想PC业务的出货量及利润率优于此前预期，服务器业务收入亦保持稳健。因此，将联想集团目 标价从 11 港元上调至 12 港元，并维持跑赢大盘评级。 其他蓝筹股方面，比亚迪电子(00285)涨7.73%，报35.42港元，贡献恒指3.25点；中银香港(02388)涨 4.69%，报37.06港元，贡献恒指9.74点；新东方-S ...

8月5日，国内期市有色金属板块多数飘红。其中，氧化铝期货呈现震荡上行走势，主力合约报收于 3227.0元/吨，涨幅1.16%。 现货方面，据铜冠金源期货介绍，周一现货氧化铝全国均价3274元/吨，持平，升水71元/吨。澳洲氧化 铝F0B价格375美元/吨，跌2美元/吨，理论进口窗口关闭。 后市来看，中金财富期货表示，近期有几内亚铝土矿供应扰动，以及"反内卷"政策预期，价格波动放 大；考虑长期氧化铝产能增长，价格将维持在较低水平。 成本上，国信期货分析称，受几内亚雨季影响，铝土矿出港量显著下降，并将逐渐体现于到港量上，供 应量的下降为铝土矿价格提供支撑，近期铝土矿价格已经出现小幅上涨，氧化铝成本线或继续抬升。 基本面上，瑞达期货（002961）指出，政治局会议提出对重点行业进行产能治理，在此背景下，随着具 体措施的逐步落地，氧化铝在运行产能或有收敛，产量增速有所放缓。需求方面，国内电解铝产能已接 近行业"天花板"，增量空间或将有限，对原料氧化铝需求保持稳定。 ...

Group 1 - Steel stocks have shown significant gains, with Maanshan Iron & Steel Co. rising by 10.96% to HKD 2.43, Angang Steel Co. increasing by 5% to HKD 2.31, and Chongqing Iron & Steel Co. up by 2.08% to HKD 1.47 [1] - The China Iron and Steel Association reported that the total operating revenue of key steel enterprises in the first half of the year was CNY 29,985 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 5.79%, while total profit increased by 63.26% to CNY 592 billion [1] - The average profit margin for the steel industry rose to 1.97%, an increase of 0.83 percentage points year-on-year, indicating some recovery in profitability despite ongoing challenges in supply and demand dynamics [1] Group 2 - The recent Politburo meeting emphasized "anti-involution" and the need for regulated competition in key industries, shifting the focus from merely eliminating low prices to rational competition aimed at improving industry profits [2] - Short-term steel demand is expected to enter a seasonal downturn, which may lead to a price correction due to rapid price increases [2] - Long-term capacity governance remains a primary focus, with a combination of market-oriented and administrative measures expected to optimize crude steel supply and enhance profitability for steel companies as new iron ore capacities are gradually released [2]

钢铁股涨幅居前，截至发稿，马鞍山钢铁股份(00323)涨10.96%，报2.43港元；鞍钢股份（000898） (00347)涨5%，报2.31港元；铁货(01029)涨2.74%，报0.75港元；重庆钢铁（601005）股份(01053)涨 2.08%，报1.47港元。 民生证券指出，7月政治局会议再次明确"反内卷"，依法依规治理企业无序竞争，推进重点行业产能治 理。与7月1日中财委"反内卷"表述比较，去除了"低价"，"落后产能有序退出"变为"重点行业产能治 理"。从变化来看，产能治理的路径不局限于落后产能，同时治理目标也由提价转向理性竞争即提高行 业利润。短期来看，钢材需求进入季节性淡季，价格过快上涨可能有所回调。长期来看，产能治理依然 是未来的主线，市场化、行政化手段相结合，粗钢供给有望进一步优化，叠加远期铁矿新增产能的逐步 释放，钢企盈利能力有望修复。 消息面上，上半年中钢协重点统计钢铁企业累计营业收入为29985亿元，同比下降5.79%；营业成本为 28055亿元，同比下降6.83%；利润总额为592亿元，同比增长63.26%；平均利润率为1.97%，同比上升 0.83个百分点。中国钢铁工业协会会长 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - **Industries**: Rental, Express Delivery, Aviation, Chemical, Cobalt, Coal - **Companies**: China Shipbuilding Leasing, Bank of China Aviation Leasing, Jitu, Shentong, Zhongtong, Yunda, SF Express, Huaxia Airlines, China Shenhua, Huayi Chemical, Wanhua, Hualu, Yangnong, Satellite Chemical, New Chemical, Huayou Cobalt, Likin, Shengtun, Jiayou International Core Points and Arguments 1. **U.S. Labor Market Impact**: The U.S. labor market data has raised expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in September, increasing the likelihood to 75%, which is favorable for leasing companies like China Shipbuilding Leasing and Bank of China Aviation Leasing [1][2] 2. **Express Delivery Industry**: The political bureau meeting focused on capacity governance rather than production governance, which is expected to accelerate the anti-involution in the express delivery industry. Price increases are anticipated in regions like Yiwu and Guangdong, with recommended companies including Jitu, Shentong, Zhongtong, Yunda, SF Express [1][4] 3. **Aviation Industry Challenges**: Despite efforts to combat market involution, the aviation industry faces skepticism regarding joint price increases due to high transparency of data. Recommended stocks include Huaxia Airlines and major A-share airlines [1][5] 4. **Chemical Industry Trends**: The chemical sector is experiencing a bottoming out, with PPI showing continuous negative growth. However, prices for certain chemicals like epoxy chloropropane and lithium carbonate are rising due to downstream replenishment [1][8][10] 5. **Cobalt Market Tightness**: The cobalt market is experiencing supply tightness, with prices expected to average 250,000 yuan/ton this year. Companies like Huayou Cobalt and Likin are recommended for investment [1][19][20] 6. **Coal Industry Developments**: China Shenhua's acquisition of National Energy Group assets is expected to enhance its strength and positively impact the coal sector. Current coal prices remain strong despite recent declines in stock performance [1][22][23] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Chemical Industry Profitability**: The chemical industry saw a revenue growth of 1.4% in June 2025, but profit growth was negative at -9%, indicating a widening profit decline despite revenue increases [1][12] 2. **Market Sentiment in Chemical Sector**: The increase in Penghua Chemical ETF shares by 1.1 billion yuan indicates a growing market interest in the chemical sector, despite it being at a relative bottom compared to other cyclical sectors [1][13] 3. **Potential for Price Stabilization**: The possibility of production limits in the chemical sector could help stabilize prices, as seen in past successful interventions [1][16] 4. **Investment Opportunities in New Materials**: Companies like Dongcai Technology and Xinzhou Bang are highlighted as key players in the new materials sector, particularly in the high-performance resin supply chain [1][17] 5. **Gold and Silver Market Dynamics**: Recent trends show that while industrial metals have risen, precious metals like gold have not seen similar increases, suggesting potential investment opportunities in gold stocks [1][18]

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing severe internal competition and overcapacity, leading to significant price declines and widespread losses among manufacturers, particularly among leading companies [1][5][38]. Group 1: Industry Overview - As of 2023, the silicon material production capacity has been further released, resulting in intense competition within the photovoltaic manufacturing sector [1]. - The nominal overcapacity rate in the industry may reach 66%, with continuous planning and investment in new capacities [1]. - Most mainstream manufacturing companies are operating at a loss, with many small and medium-sized enterprises facing layoffs, production halts, and potential liquidation [1][5]. Group 2: Government Response - The issue of internal competition has garnered high-level attention, prompting the central government to issue important directives aimed at addressing the crisis [5][6]. - Key meetings and reports have established a framework for preventing "involutionary" competition and facilitating the exit of inefficient capacities from the market [5][6][39]. - The revised Anti-Unfair Competition Law, effective from October 15, 2025, incorporates measures against "involution," reinforcing constraints on low-price dumping behaviors [6]. Group 3: Causes of Involution - The root cause of the internal competition is a severe mismatch between supply and demand, leading to overproduction and subsequent price declines [7][9]. - In situations of excessive supply, prices drop below average costs, resulting in a complex cycle of competition that exacerbates the crisis [8][9]. Group 4: Policy Options - Two main approaches to address the internal competition are proposed: allowing the market to self-correct or implementing policy interventions to expedite the exit of outdated capacities [10][12]. - Various policy measures under consideration include price limits, production limits, investment restrictions, efficiency improvements, and mergers [14][19][21]. - The effectiveness of these policies varies, with investment and efficiency measures deemed most effective, while price limits may complicate the situation further [39]. Group 5: Demand-Side Policies - Demand-side policies are crucial for addressing the current crisis, as the industry faces a significant decline in demand due to recent regulatory changes [24][25]. - The introduction of the 136 document has shifted the investment landscape, leading to a sharp decline in new photovoltaic projects [25][26]. - Effective demand-side policies should focus on expanding and stimulating demand rather than reducing it, with suggestions for local policy adjustments and market price liberalization [33][41].

受益于"反内卷"带来政策利好预期提振，7月以来黑色金属集体上行，锰硅期现价格同样跟涨。然而，月 末政治局会议结束，强预期兑现，市场运行逻辑回归产业端，当前锰硅供需格局表现偏弱，且成本推涨难 续，锰硅上行趋弱，价格开启高位震荡调整。 利多因素发酵，锰硅低位回升 7月权益市场与商品市场均迎来上涨，主要是受益于"反内卷"政策利好预期，国内工业品集体上行，尤以 光伏相关品种最为明显，黑色金属表现同样亮眼，全品种期价均录得显著上涨。不过，"反内卷"仅是黑色 上涨的触发因素，本轮上行存有产业和宏观基础。具体来看，淡季黑色产业矛盾累积有限，而部分品种跌 至边际成本附近，叠加"反内卷"引发市场对供给侧改革预期，为此，品种低价与政策预期共同引燃市场看 多情绪，黑色金属触底回升。 图1：国内商品指数走势 锰硅价格同样跟涨。截至8月4日，锰硅主力期价收于5972元/吨，7月以来累计上涨5.18%，期间最高更是 涨至6414元/吨，刷新自3月中旬主力合约价格新高。期价强势带动现货上行，但涨幅相对偏低，基差有所 走弱。截至8月4日，内蒙古、宁夏、天津等地价格分别为5720元/吨、5700元/吨、5850元/吨，同期分别上 涨170元、 ...