Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In August 2025, economic data generally weakened, with fixed - asset investment growth continuing to decline, and consumer growth marginally slowing. Only industrial production remained at a high level. Macro - policies need to strengthen counter - cyclical adjustments, relying more on boosting consumption to expand domestic demand. The active fiscal policy is being implemented faster, and the monetary policy has more room for operation, with reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts still expected [39]. - Recently, stock index futures have risen, driven by policy, funds, and sentiment, but corporate earnings have not significantly improved. With the approaching National Day holiday, there is uncertainty in the external market, so risk control for stock indices should be done before the holiday. The released US economic data is positive, and there are differences within the Federal Reserve on future interest - rate policies. Gold may face short - term callback risks [39]. - In the short term, due to the approaching National Day holiday, stock indices may face callback risks, and gold may enter a phase of adjustment after accelerating its rise. In the medium - to - long term, stock indices will maintain a wide - range oscillation, and gold may face a deep adjustment [39]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Domestic and Foreign Macroeconomic Data - In August 2025, economic data generally weakened. Fixed - asset investment growth continued to decline, the decline in real - estate investment further expanded, and the growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing investment slowed. After a brief recovery, real - estate sales declined again, and real - estate enterprises were cautious about land acquisition and new project construction [4]. 2. Stock Index Fundamental Data - Before the holiday, the central bank increased reverse - repurchase operations, and market liquidity remained abundant. The gap between M1 and M2 narrowed, and the acceleration of social financing growth was mainly driven by the large - scale issuance of government bonds, including ultra - long - term special treasury bonds and local special bonds [14][15]. - The margin trading balance in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets exceeded 2.4 trillion yuan, reaching a new high. The central bank carried out 1567.4 billion yuan of 7 - day and 900 billion yuan of 14 - day reverse - repurchase operations, as well as 600 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations, achieving a net withdrawal of 940.6 billion yuan [18]. 3. Gold Fundamental Data - The US GDP growth rate in the second quarter was revised up to 3.8% quarter - on - quarter, reaching a two - year high, and the number of initial jobless claims decreased for two consecutive weeks. The US economy remains robust, and labor demand has slowed but is still within the range of full employment, supporting the Fed's preventive interest - rate cuts [25]. 4. Domestic and Foreign Gold Inventory Situation - The warehouse receipts and inventory of Shanghai gold futures have continued to soar, reflecting an increase in the demand for physical gold delivery and high market sentiment for going long [38].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the overall industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The global copper supply - demand structure will be further tightened due to the accident at Freeport McMoRan's Grasberg mine, and with the Fed's expected interest rate cuts and the expansion of the US manufacturing industry, copper prices are expected to rise. It is recommended to buy on dips [4][13]. - Zinc shows a range - bound trend. Although there are some improvements in the supply side, the demand in the peak season is relatively weak. Attention should be paid to whether the export window opens, and it is recommended to be slightly bullish on dips [5][13]. - The aluminum industry chain presents a mixed situation. Aluminum is slightly bullish but it is recommended to wait and see; alumina is recommended to be shorted on rallies; and cast aluminum alloy can be short - term bullish [6][14]. - Tin is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and a short - term bullish strategy is recommended, while paying attention to the situation of the ore end and macro - impacts [7]. - Lead shows a range - bound upward movement. With the increase in supply after the end of maintenance and the existence of pre - holiday stocking demand, it is recommended to close long positions on rallies [17]. - Nickel and stainless steel prices fluctuate repeatedly. Nickel is affected by mine - end disturbances, and stainless steel is supported by cost. It is recommended to be slightly bullish on dips for both [10][17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Logic - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp, starting a new round of interest rate cuts. Further economic data changes need to be monitored to see if it can confirm the preventive interest rate cuts and their effectiveness, which will be beneficial to the later trend of non - ferrous metals [11]. - The US announced the implementation of the US - EU trade agreement, reducing the tariff on EU cars to 15% starting from August 1st. - The preliminary values of the Eurozone's September manufacturing, service, and composite PMIs showed mixed performance. The US September Markit manufacturing and service PMIs declined but remained in the expansion range, with prices easing. - China's one - year and five - year LPRs in September remained unchanged. The central bank governor stated that China's monetary policy adheres to an independent stance, taking into account both domestic and foreign factors, and is currently supportive and moderately loose [11]. 3.2 Metal - Specific Analysis 3.2.1 Copper - An accident at Freeport McMoRan's Grasberg mine has suspended production, and the company expects a 35% decline in copper and gold production in 2026. The earliest recovery to pre - accident production levels will be in 2027. - In the medium - to long - term, the Fed's expected interest rate cuts and the expansion of the US manufacturing industry are positive for copper prices. It is recommended to buy on dips, with a short - term support range of 80,000 - 81,000 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 83,000 - 84,000 yuan/ton. An option strategy of selling near - month slightly out - of - the - money put options can be considered [4][13]. 3.2.2 Zinc - Zinc shows a range - bound trend. The supply increase is gradually materializing, and the demand in the peak season is relatively weak. Attention should be paid to whether the export window opens. The support range is 21,800 - 22,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is 22,800 - 23,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to be slightly bullish on dips [5][13]. 3.2.3 Aluminum Industry Chain - **Aluminum**: Slightly bullish, but it is recommended to wait and see. The support range is 20,200 - 20,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is 21,300 - 21,700 yuan/ton. - **Alumina**: It is recommended to short on rallies. The support range is 2,700 - 2,900 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is 3,500 - 3,700 yuan/ton. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Short - term bullish. The support range is 20,000 - 20,300 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is 20,800 - 21,000 yuan/ton [6][14]. 3.2.4 Tin - In a situation of weak supply and demand, with tight supply due to issues such as ore shortages and delayed production resumption in Myanmar. The demand recovery is limited. It is recommended to be short - term bullish, with a support range of 260,000 - 265,000 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 280,000 - 290,000 yuan/ton [7][14]. 3.2.5 Lead - With the end of maintenance, the supply of primary lead will increase. There is pre - holiday stocking demand, but the upward momentum is limited. It is recommended to close long positions on rallies, with a support range of 16,800 - 17,000 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 17,400 - 17,500 yuan/ton [17]. 3.2.6 Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Nickel**: Affected by mine - end disturbances in Indonesia, prices fluctuate repeatedly. It is recommended to be slightly bullish on dips, with a support range of 118,000 - 120,000 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 125,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton. - **Stainless Steel**: Supported by cost, with a slowdown in inventory reduction. It shows a range - bound trend, with a support range of 12,700 - 12,800 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 13,000 - 13,200 yuan/ton [10][17]. 3.3 Market Performance - **Futures Closing Prices**: Copper closed at 79,960 yuan/ton with a 0.05% increase; zinc at 21,860 yuan/ton with a 0.07% increase; aluminum at 20,705 yuan/ton with a 0.10% increase; etc. [18]. - **Spot Prices**: The Yangtze River Non - ferrous copper spot price was 80,130 yuan/ton with a 0.04% increase; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous 0 zinc spot average price was 21,810 yuan/ton with a - 0.32% decrease; etc. [21][23]. 3.4 Position Analysis - For different non - ferrous metal futures contracts such as沪铜 (CU2511),氧化铝 (AO2601),沪镍 (NI2511), etc., the net long - short positions, their changes, and influencing factors are presented. For example, in沪铜 (CU2511), the main short positions are relatively strong, and the net long - short position difference is - 718, with an increase in long - position main forces [20]. 3.5 Industry Chain and Other Analysis - The report also provides various charts related to the non - ferrous metal industry chain, including inventory changes, processing fees, price comparisons, and arbitrage, option - related data for different metals such as copper, zinc, aluminum, etc. For example, charts of copper inventory changes, zinc concentrate processing fee changes, and copper option historical volatility are provided [25][28][78].

Group 1: Research Views Copper - Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices fluctuated weakly and failed to continue the upward trend. The domestic spot copper imports were in a loss state. The US economic data showed resilience and inflation persistence. The labor - market slowdown concerns were alleviated. The LME copper inventory decreased by 350 tons to 144,425 tons, Comex inventory increased by 2,564 tons to 291,260 tons, and the domestic copper social inventory decreased by 0.44 million tons to 14.01 million tons. The Freeport McMoRan Indonesia Grasberg mine accident will impact global copper supply in Q4 and 2026. Although investors were cautious due to the cryptocurrency fluctuations and domestic holiday uncertainties, the supply reduction in Q4 will strongly support copper prices, and the quarterly average price is expected to rise. It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to Comex - LME copper and internal - external price spreads [1]. Aluminum - Alumina fluctuated weakly with AO2601 closing at 2919 yuan/ton, a 0.27% decline.沪铝 (AL2510) fluctuated strongly, closing at 20,800 yuan/ton, a 0.1% increase. Aluminum alloy fluctuated weakly. The SMM alumina price dropped to 3000 yuan/ton, and the aluminum ingot spot remained at par. The domestic bauxite mines have not resumed production, and the ore inventory is declining. Alumina is generally bearish but has basically bottomed out. The aluminum ingot has not reached the actual de - stocking inflection point. With the approaching of the double festivals, the downstream is in the stocking stage, but the current outbound volume is at the lowest level in the past three years, and the downstream purchasing willingness has declined, which restricts the upward momentum of aluminum prices [1][2]. Nickel - Overnight, LME nickel fell 1.26% to $15,240/ton, and Shanghai nickel fell 0.86% to 121,680 yuan/ton. The LME nickel inventory remained at 230,586 tons, and the domestic SHFE nickel warrants increased by 134 tons to 25,105 tons. The stainless - steel weekly inventory continued to decline, with the national mainstream market stainless - steel 89 - warehouse social inventory at 984,500 tons, a 0.26% week - on - week decrease. The cost of ferronickel has strengthened, but the supply has increased. In the new - energy sector, the ternary demand in September weakened slightly month - on - month, but the cobalt policy may lead to a relatively tight supply of MHP. The nickel price may rise slightly at the bottom, but inventory is a resistance to the price increase [2]. Group 2: Daily Data Monitoring Copper - On September 25, 2025, the price of flat - water copper was 82,465 yuan/ton, up 2,460 yuan from the previous day. The LME copper inventory decreased by 350 tons, the上期所 (SHFE) copper warrants increased by 243 tons, and the total SHFE inventory increased by 11,760 tons. The domestic + bonded - area social inventory decreased by 0.1 million tons [3]. Aluminum - On September 25, 2025, the Wuxi aluminum price was 20,770 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan from the previous day, and the Nanhai price was 20,710 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan. The LME aluminum inventory decreased by 1,225 tons, the SHFE aluminum warrants decreased by 3,328 tons, and the total SHFE inventory decreased by 765 tons. The electrolytic - aluminum social inventory remained unchanged at 63.8 million tons, and the alumina social inventory increased by 1.4 million tons [4]. Nickel - On September 25, 2025, the price of Jinchuan nickel plate was 125,200 yuan/ton, up 1,550 yuan from the previous day. The LME nickel inventory remained unchanged, the SHFE nickel warrants increased by 134 tons, and the SHFE nickel inventory increased by 2,334 tons. The nickel social inventory increased by 429 tons [4]. Zinc - On September 25, 2025, the主力结算价 of zinc was 21,965 yuan/ton, up 0.2% from the previous day. The LME zinc price remained unchanged. The SHFE zinc inventory increased by 793 tons, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 600 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 0.92 million tons [6]. Tin - On September 25, 2025, the主力结算价 of tin was 273,150 yuan/ton, up 0.6% from the previous day. The LME tin price decreased by 2.1%. The SHFE tin inventory decreased by 909 tons, and the LME tin inventory increased by 45 tons [6]. Group 3: Chart Analysis 3.1 Spot Premium - There are charts showing the spot premiums of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][8][10]. 3.2 SHFE Near - Far Month Spread - There are charts showing the spread between the first - and second - month contracts of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [16][21]. 3.3 LME Inventory - There are charts showing the LME inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [24][26][28]. 3.4 SHFE Inventory - There are charts showing the SHFE inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [30][32][34]. 3.5 Social Inventory - There are charts showing the social inventories of copper (including bonded areas), aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 - 2025 [36][38][40]. 3.6 Smelting Profit - There are charts showing the copper - concentrate index, rough - copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, ferronickel smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [42][44][47]. Group 4: Team Introduction - The research team includes Zhan Dapeng, the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious - metals researcher, etc., with rich experience and many honors. Wang Heng, a non - ferrous researcher, focuses on aluminum - silicon research. Zhu Xi, a non - ferrous researcher, focuses on lithium - nickel research [50][51].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Central Settlement Company and the National Inter - bank Funding Center will launch a centralized bond lending business on October 10, 2025, which can improve market efficiency, risk prevention, and standardization, but also faces challenges such as strict collateral requirements and short - term limits [4][11][12] - The listing of the first convertible bond on the Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE) marks the official opening of the BSE convertible bond market. Although it is in its infancy with some characteristics like non - public transfer and strict terms, it has potential for future optimization [5][15][17] - In August 2025, the overall economic data declined, with fixed - asset investment, social consumption, and industrial added - value growth rates dropping. CPI turned negative year - on - year, while the decline of PPI narrowed [6][18][20] - Last week, the central bank net - injected funds through open - market operations. Due to factors like treasury bond issuance and tax payments, capital prices rose, and the spread between 3 - month and 1 - year Shibor slightly expanded [7][23] - Last week, the issuance scale of credit bonds increased. Different industries and bond types showed different trends in issuance and net financing, and the average issuance cost of credit bonds fluctuated [8][28][31] - In the secondary market of credit bonds last week, trading activity increased, yields of both interest - rate and credit bonds rose, most credit spreads expanded, and rating spreads changed little [37][38][43] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Market Hotspots - **Centralized Bond Lending Business Policy** - On September 12, 2025, relevant institutions will launch a centralized bond lending business on October 10, 2025, which is an important supplement to the existing bond lending business [11] - It can improve market efficiency, help market participants prevent risks, and enhance standardization, but also faces challenges from strict collateral requirements and short - term limits [12][13] - **BSE Convertible Bond Market** - On September 9, 2025, the first convertible bond "Youji Dingzhuan" was listed, marking the official opening of the BSE convertible bond market [5][13][15] - The current BSE convertible bond market is in its early stage, featuring non - public transfer, strict terms, and a concentrated investor structure. It is recommended to explore public issuance and innovative clause design [15][16][17] Macroeconomic Data - In August 2025, fixed - asset investment, social consumption, and industrial added - value growth rates declined. CPI turned negative year - on - year, and the decline of PPI narrowed [6][18][20] Money Market - Last week, the central bank net - injected 196.1 billion yuan through open - market operations. Capital prices rose due to factors like treasury bond issuance and tax payments, and the spread between 3 - month and 1 - year Shibor slightly expanded [7][23] Primary Market of Credit Bonds - Last week, the issuance scale of credit bonds increased to 216.271 billion yuan. Different bond types and industries had different performance in issuance and net financing, and the average issuance cost fluctuated [8][28][31] Secondary Market of Credit Bonds - Last week, the secondary - market trading volume of bonds was 876.9869 billion yuan, with increased trading activity. Yields of both interest - rate and credit bonds rose, most credit spreads expanded, and rating spreads changed little [37][38][43]

Report Overview - The report is the Commodity Research Morning Report - Black Series by Guotai Junan Futures on September 23, 2025, covering multiple commodities in the black series [1]. Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Iron ore is expected to have repeated expectations and wide - range fluctuations [2][4]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coils show dull demand and wide - range fluctuations [2][6][7]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are affected by the silicon - based sector and show weak fluctuations [2][11]. - Coke and coking coal have repeated expectations and wide - range fluctuations [2][15][16]. - Logs fluctuate repeatedly [2][18]. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of l2601 was 807.5 yuan/ton, up 7.5 yuan or 0.94%. The spot prices of imported ores such as Carajás fines, PB fines, etc. increased. The basis and spreads showed some changes [4]. - **News**: The US Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25% on September 17 [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Fundamentals**: For rebar RB2601, the closing price was 3,185 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan or 0.85%. For hot - rolled coil HC2601, it was 3,380 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan or 0.54%. There were changes in production, inventory, and apparent demand [7][8]. - **News**: Steel production, inventory, and demand data were released on September 18. In August 2025, national steel production data and steel import and export data were also provided [8][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both rebar and hot - rolled coils, indicating a neutral trend [9]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese decreased. Spot prices and various spreads showed different changes [11]. - **News**: Price ranges of ferrosilicon 72 and 75 in different regions on September 22 were reported. Import and export data of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in August 2025 were also provided [11]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 1 for both, indicating a weak trend [14]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of JM2601 and J2601 increased. Spot prices and basis showed changes [16]. - **News**: The US Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25% on September 17 [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral trend [17]. Logs - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of different contracts showed little change. Spot prices of various log types in different markets were mostly stable [19]. - **News**: The US Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25% on September 17 [21]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [21].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2512 is volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is weakly volatile, with an overall view of volatility. The core logic is that there is still a long - term expectation of interest rate cuts, but the possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut is low [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is weakly volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the reference view is volatile. The overall situation of treasury bond futures is that there is pressure above and support below, and they will mainly be in a volatile consolidation in the short term [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2512 variety, the short - term, medium - term, and overall views are volatile, and the intraday view is weakly volatile. The core logic is that the long - term expectation of interest rate cuts remains, while the short - term possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut is low [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Yesterday, treasury bond futures were all volatile and declined. According to the macro - economic data in August, credit data was weak, the marginal consumption growth rate decreased, and inflation data was weak, increasing the expectation of stable demand from macro - policies in the fourth quarter. The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP as expected, shifting its focus from "controlling inflation" to "stabilizing employment". The external monetary environment turning loose weakens the constraints on the RMB exchange rate, and the expectation of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the fourth quarter still exists. However, the short - term possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut is low. As treasury bond futures have rebounded from the previous bottom, the implied expectation of interest rate cuts has been reflected, and the short - term rebound space is limited [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, Treasury bond futures oscillated and declined. Based on the macro - economic data for August, credit data was weak, the marginal growth rate of consumption slowed, and inflation data was weak. Expectations for stable demand from macro - policies in the fourth quarter are rising. The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP as expected, shifting its focus from "controlling inflation" to "stabilizing employment". The shift to a loose external monetary environment reduces constraints on the RMB exchange rate, and there are still expectations for an overall interest - rate cut in the fourth quarter, but the possibility of an immediate cut is low. After the continuous rebound from the previous bottom, the implied interest - rate cut expectation is already reflected, so the short - term rebound space is limited. In general, Treasury bond futures face both upward pressure and downward support, and will mainly oscillate in the short term [1] Group 3: Summary of Relevant Catalogs Industry News - On September 18, the People's Bank of China conducted 487 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations with a 7 - day term at a fixed - rate and quantity - tender method, with an operating rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous time. According to previous announcements, 292 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured on the same day, resulting in a net injection of 195 billion yuan through reverse repurchases [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report presents the market trends of various black - series commodities on September 18, 2025, including expected price movements and fundamental data [2]. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - Expected to have repeated expectations and wide - range fluctuations. The trend strength is 0 (neutral). The futures price of 12601 contract is 804.5 yuan/ton, up 1.0 yuan/ton with a 0.12% increase. Imported and domestic ore prices were mostly stable, with some minor changes in the prices of certain ores. The basis and spreads also showed some fluctuations [2][4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Both are expected to have wide - range fluctuations, with a trend strength of 0 (neutral). For the RB2601 rebar contract, the closing price is 3,168 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (0.06%); for the HC2601 hot - rolled coil contract, the closing price is 3,390 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton (- 0.38%). Spot prices in various regions generally declined slightly. In August 2025, national steel production data showed different trends, and steel import and export data also changed [2][6][7]. Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon - Both are expected to have a strong - biased fluctuation due to the boost of macro - sentiment, with a trend strength of 1 (strong - biased). Futures prices of different contracts increased, while some spot prices decreased. Price differences such as the basis, near - far month spreads, and cross - variety spreads also changed [2][11]. Coke and Coking Coal - Both are expected to have repeated expectations and wide - range fluctuations, with a trend strength of 0 (neutral). Futures prices of JM2601 coking coal and J2601 coke contracts decreased slightly. Spot prices of coking coal increased in some regions, while coke prices decreased in some regions. The basis and spreads also showed corresponding changes [2][14][15]. Logs - Expected to have repeated fluctuations, with a trend strength of 0 (neutral). Futures prices of different contracts showed different degrees of increase, while most spot prices remained stable. Trading volume and open interest of different contracts also changed [2][17][18].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The stock index still has long - term upward potential, but poor economic data exerts short - term pressure on the market. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Contract Prices - IF主力合约（2509）price is 4516.8, down 11.2; IH主力合约（2509）is 2950.6, down 10.6; IC主力合约（2509）is 7165.2, up 39.4; IM主力合约（2509）is 7462.0, up 75.6 [2] - IF次主力合约（2512）price is 4489.2, down 7.2; IH次主力合约（2512）is 2951.6, down 10.8; IC次主力合约（2512）is 6996.8, up 45.4; IM次主力合约（2512）is 7242.4, up 81.0 [2] 3.2 Futures Price Spreads - IF - IH当月合约价差is 1566.2, up 0.8; IC - IF当月合约价差is 2648.4, up 62.0; IM - IC当月合约价差is 296.8, up 42.4; IC - IH当月合约价差is 4214.6, up 62.8; IM - IF当月合约价差is 2945.2, up 104.4; IM - IH当月合约价差is 4511.4, up 105.2 [2] - IF当季 - 当月is - 27.6, up 3.2; IF下季 - 当月is - 50.8, up 6.8; IH当季 - 当月is 1.0, up 0.8; IH下季 - 当月is 4.4, up 2.8; IC当季 - 当月is - 168.4, up 6.4; IC下季 - 当月is - 333.2, up 0.8; IM当季 - 当月is - 219.6, up 5.8; IM下季 - 当月is - 428, up 5.8 [2] 3.3 Futures Net Positions - IF前20名净持仓is - 28,193.00, down 426.0; IH前20名净持仓is - 17,632.00, down 264.0; IC前20名净持仓is - 27,595.00, up 566.0; IM前20名净持仓is - 45,328.00, down 2252.0 [2] 3.4 Spot Prices and Basis - 沪深300price is 4523.34, down 9.7; IF主力合约基差is - 6.5, down 1.3; 上证50price is 2,947.8, down 14.8; IH主力合约基差is 2.8, up 3.0; 中证500price is 7,191.0, up 53.6; IC主力合约基差is - 25.8, down 2.6; 中证1000price is 7,483.6, up 68.1; IM主力合约基差is - 21.6, up 25.3 [2] 3.5 Market Sentiment - A股成交额（日，亿元）is 23,670.69, up 638.89; 两融余额（前一交易日，亿元）is 23,699.99, up 184.29; 北向成交合计（前一交易日，亿元）is 2873.06, down 239.77; 逆回购（到期量，操作量，亿元）is - 2470.0, up 2870.0; 主力资金（昨日，今日，亿元）is - 646.67, down 449.20; 上涨股票比例（日，%）is 66.84, up 31.56; Shibor（日，%）is 1.437, up 0.029; IO平值看涨期权收盘价（2509）is 45.60, down 8.00; IO平值看涨期权隐含波动率（%）is 17.78, up 1.28; IO平值看跌期权收盘价（2509）is 27.00, up 1.00; IO平值看跌期权隐含波动率（%）is 17.78, up 1.20; 沪深300指数20日波动率（%）is 19.75, down 0.07; 成交量PCR（%）is 62.89, up 7.92; 持仓量PCR（%）is 80.25, down 2.60 [2] 3.6 Wind Market Strength - Weakness Analysis - 全部A股is 6.70, up 2.10; 技术面is 6.70, up 3.20; 资金面is 6.60, up 0.90 [2] 3.7 Industry News - In August, the year - on - year actual growth of the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size was 5.2%, expected to be 5.7%, and the previous value was 5.7%. From a month - on - month perspective, it increased by 0.37% [2] - In August, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 39668 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%, expected to be 3.8%, and the previous value was 3.7%. From January to August, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 323906 billion yuan, an increase of 4.6% [2] - From January to August 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 326111 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%. Among them, private fixed - asset investment decreased by 2.3% year - on - year. From a month - on - month perspective, fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) in August decreased by 0.20% [2] - From January to August, China's real estate development investment was 60309 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12.9%; the sales volume of newly built commercial housing was 55015 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.3%, among which the sales volume of residential housing decreased by 7.0%; the funds in place for real estate development enterprises were 64318 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 8.0%. In August, the real estate development climate index was 93.05 [2] - In August, the national urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.3%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, the same as the same month last year [2] - A - share major indexes closed generally higher. The three major indexes opened higher in the morning and showed wide - range fluctuations. Small and medium - cap stocks were stronger than large - cap blue - chip stocks. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.04%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.45%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.68%. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets increased slightly. More than 3600 stocks in the whole market rose. Most industry sectors rose, with the comprehensive, computer, and machinery equipment sectors leading the gains, and the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, and banking sectors leading the losses [2] - The Fed will hold an interest - rate meeting on September 16 - 17, Eastern Time. Affected by the weakening labor market, the market has fully priced in a Fed rate cut in September, and the external environmental constraints faced by A - shares are loosening [2] - Domestically, in terms of the economic fundamentals, in August, the growth rates of domestic social retail, fixed - asset investment, imports and exports, and the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size all declined significantly compared with the previous values and were weaker than market expectations. The real estate market also showed an accelerating weakening trend. In terms of financial data, at the end of August, M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, M1 increased by 6% year - on - year, and the M1 - M2 gap narrowed significantly, reaching the lowest value since June 2021, which may reflect the continuous improvement of residents' consumption willingness. In the trade sector, China and the US will hold talks on economic and trade issues in Madrid, Spain, from September 14 to 17 [2] 3.8 Key Data to Focus On - September 16, 20:30: US import and export price indexes, retail sales, and core retail sales for August [3] - September 18, 2:00: Fed interest - rate decision [3] - September 18, 19:00: Bank of England interest - rate decision [3] - September 19, 10:47: Bank of Japan interest - rate decision [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The necessity of policy support for the economy has increased as the economic data from January to August shows varying degrees of weakness in industrial production, investment, and consumption [6] - With a dense schedule of domestic and foreign macro - events this week, investors should control risks in stock index positions and mainly adjust for long - positions [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Content Market Interest Rate Data - DR001 closed at 1.41 with a 4.93bp increase, DR007 at 1.48 with a 2.57bp increase, GC001 at 1.36 with a 0.50bp decrease, and GC007 at 1.49 with a 3.00bp increase [3] - SHBOR 3M remained at 1.55, LPR 5 - year at 3.50, 1 - year treasury at 1.40 with a 0.25bp decrease, 5 - year treasury at 1.61 with a 0.45bp increase, 10 - year treasury at 1.80 with a 1.05bp increase, and 10 - year US treasury at 4.06 with a 5.00bp increase [3] - The central bank conducted 280 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday, with 191.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 88.5 billion yuan [3] - This week, 1.2645 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market, and 120 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - term deposits will mature on Monday [4] Stock Index Market Data - The CSI 300 rose 0.24% to 4533.1, the SSE 50 fell 0.2% to 2962.6, the CSI 500 fell 0.15% to 7137.4, and the CSI 1000 fell 0.1% to 7415.6 [5] - The trading volume of the two - stock markets was 2.2774 trillion yuan, a decrease of 243.5 billion yuan from the previous trading day [5] - Industry sectors had more decliners than gainers, with game, agriculture, fishery, automobile, power equipment, and auto parts sectors leading the gains, and precious metals, jewelry, small metals, electronic chemicals, and aerospace sectors leading the losses [5] Stock Index Futures Data - IF contracts: The current - month contract closed at 4528 with a 0.1% increase, the trading volume was 137,764 with a 7.3% decrease, and the open interest was 267,459 with a 4.0% decrease [5] - IH contracts: The current - month contract closed at 2962 with a 0.2% decrease, the trading volume was 25,348 with a 15.2% decrease, and the open interest was 98,524 with a 1.5% decrease [5] - IC contracts: The current - month contract closed at 7114 with a 0.4% decrease, the trading volume was 137,356 with a 21.9% decrease, and the open interest was 249,632 with a 6.8% decrease [5] - IM contracts: The current - month contract closed at 7369 with a 0.3% decrease, the trading volume was 194,389 with a 19.3% decrease, and the open interest was 356,703 with a 4.2% decrease [5] Stock Index Futures Premium and Discount Data - IF premium/discount rates for current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 10.58%, 3.34%, 3.06%, and 2.72% respectively [7] - IH premium/discount rates were 0.66%, - 0.07%, 0.00%, and - 0.09% respectively [7] - IC premium/discount rates were 29.61%, 13.93%, 10.66%, and 9.82% respectively [7] - IM premium/discount rates were 57.80%, 17.62%, 14.11%, and 12.72% respectively [7]