Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Interest rates were cut as expected [2][4]. - Silver: Reached a new high, breaking through 60 [2][4]. - Copper: The decline of the US dollar supported the price [2][8]. - Zinc: Pulled back from a high level [2][11]. - Lead: The reduction in inventory limited the price decline [2][14]. - Tin: Supply was disrupted again [2][17]. - Aluminum: Continued to fluctuate; Alumina rebounded slightly; Cast aluminum alloy followed electrolytic aluminum [2][20]. - Platinum: Faced significant resistance above [2][25]. - Palladium: Trended slightly upward in a volatile manner [2][25]. - Nickel: The structural surplus situation changed, but the conflicting factors in the game remained unchanged; Stainless steel: Both supply and demand continued to be weak, and the cost - support logic was strengthened [2][29]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price**: The closing prices of Shanghai Gold 2512, Gold T + D, Comex Gold 2512, and London Gold Spot all rose by 0.51% yesterday, while the night - session prices of Shanghai Gold 2512 and Gold T + D declined slightly [4]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of Shanghai Gold 2512 decreased by 6,955, and the position decreased by 1,834; the trading volume of Comex Gold 2512 increased by 6,122, and the position increased by 1,832 [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Gold remained unchanged, while the inventory of Comex Gold decreased by 113,819 (in troy ounces) [4]. - **Spread**: The spread between Gold T + D and AU2512 remained unchanged, and the cost of the spread - arbitrage strategy of buying December and selling June decreased by 0.87 [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The Fed removed the total - amount limit for standing repo operations and announced monthly purchases of $40 billion in Treasury bills starting from December 12; Trump criticized the Fed for the small rate - cut amplitude; China's November CPI rose by 0.7% year - on - year, reaching the highest since March 2024, and the year - on - year decline of PPI slightly widened [4][7]. - **Trend Intensity**: 1 [6]. Silver - **Price**: The closing prices of Shanghai Silver 2512 and Silver T + D rose by 5.59% and 5.72% respectively yesterday, and the night - session price of Shanghai Silver 2512 rose by 0.78% [4]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of Shanghai Silver 2512 increased by 505,812, and the position increased by 33,231; the trading volume of Comex Silver 2512 increased by 2,658, and the position remained unchanged [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Silver increased by 24,057 kilograms, while the inventory of Comex Silver decreased by 321,251 (in troy ounces) [4]. - **Spread**: The spread between Silver T + D and AG2510 decreased by 46, and the cost of the spread - arbitrage strategy of buying December and selling June decreased by 11.3 [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: 1 [6]. Copper - **Price**: The closing prices of the Shanghai Copper main contract and LME Copper 3M electronic disk rose by 0.83% and 0.78% respectively yesterday, and the night - session price of the Shanghai Copper main contract declined slightly [8]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper index decreased by 83,947, and the position decreased by 1,936; the trading volume of LME Copper 3M electronic disk decreased by 2,268, and the position increased by 3,241 [8]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Copper decreased by 600 tons, and the inventory of LME Copper decreased by 700 tons [8]. - **Spread**: The LME Copper cash - to - 3M spread decreased by 8.19, and the spot - to - near - month spread decreased by 65 [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected and announced purchases of short - term US Treasuries; China's November CPI rose by 0.7% year - on - year, reaching the highest since March 2024, and the year - on - year decline of PPI slightly widened; Ivanhoe Mines' Kamoa - Kakula copper mine in the DRC will have lower production in 2026 than in 2024; China's November imports of copper ore and concentrates were 2.526 million tons, with a cumulative import of 27.614 million tons from January to November, a year - on - year increase of 8.0%; the US is negotiating with central African countries to provide over $1 billion for two key mineral and railway projects; Chile's November copper export value increased by 4.57% year - on - year [8][10]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [10]. Zinc - **Price**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract rose slightly by 0.02%, while the closing price of LME Zinc 3M electronic disk declined by 1.33% [11]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume and position of the Shanghai Zinc main contract decreased, and the trading volume and position of LME Zinc also decreased [11]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Zinc decreased by 1,297 tons, while the inventory of LME Zinc increased by 1,650 tons [11]. - **News**: China's November CPI rose by 0.7% year - on - year, reaching the highest since March 2024, and the year - on - year decline of PPI slightly widened [11]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 1 [11]. Lead - **Price**: The closing prices of the Shanghai Lead main contract and LME Lead 3M electronic disk declined by 0.32% and 1.10% respectively [14]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Lead main contract increased, and the position decreased; the trading volume of LME Lead increased, and the position decreased [14]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Lead decreased by 202 tons, and the inventory of LME Lead decreased by 1,375 tons [14]. - **News**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected and announced purchases of short - term US Treasuries; China's November CPI rose by 0.7% year - on - year, reaching the highest since March 2024, and the year - on - year decline of PPI slightly widened [14][15]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [15]. Tin - **Price**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract rose by 3.30%, and the night - session price declined by 0.51%; the closing price of LME Tin 3M electronic disk rose by 0.40% [17]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume and position of the Shanghai Tin main contract increased, and the trading volume of LME Tin 3M electronic disk decreased slightly, while the position increased [17]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Tin decreased by 86 tons, and the inventory of LME Tin increased by 605 tons [17]. - **Spread**: The spread between the spot and the main - contract futures of tin increased by 8,380 [17]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The Fed removed the total - amount limit for standing repo operations and announced monthly purchases of $40 billion in Treasury bills starting from December 12; Trump criticized the Fed for the small rate - cut amplitude; China's November CPI rose by 0.7% year - on - year, reaching the highest since March 2024, and the year - on - year decline of PPI slightly widened; the AH - share real - estate sector rose sharply on Wednesday afternoon; the Goldman Sachs model showed that the RMB was undervalued by 25% [17][18]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [19]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price**: The closing prices of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract, LME Aluminum 3M, and Shanghai Alumina main contract showed different trends; the closing price of the cast - aluminum - alloy main contract rose [20]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volumes and positions of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract, LME Aluminum 3M, and Shanghai Alumina main contract changed to varying degrees [20]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Aluminum increased slightly, and the inventory of LME Aluminum decreased; the domestic alumina average price declined [20]. - **Comprehensive News**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, with three voting members opposing, and still expected one rate cut next year, and would buy $40 billion in short - term bonds; the US employment - cost increase reached a new low in over four years, and inflation pressure eased [22]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for all of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy [22]. Platinum and Palladium - **Price**: The prices of platinum and palladium futures and spot markets showed different trends, with some rising and some falling [24]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volumes and positions of platinum and palladium futures changed to varying degrees [24]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of NYMEX Platinum decreased by 152 ounces, and the inventory of NYMEX Palladium increased by 7,049 ounces [24]. - **Spread**: The spreads between different platinum and palladium contracts and the spreads between spot and futures changed [24]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The Fed announced purchases of $40 billion in short - term bonds in the next 30 days, cut interest rates by 25 basis points with three dissenting votes, and the dot plot maintained the expectation of one rate cut in each of the next two years; Trump continued to criticize Powell after the rate cut; Indonesia imposed a floating tariff on gold exports, with a maximum rate of 15%; the US seized a Venezuelan oil tanker near Venezuela; Maduro stated that Venezuela was ready to "knock out the teeth of the US" if necessary; the US third - quarter labor - cost growth rate dropped to the lowest in four years [26][28]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for platinum and 1 for palladium [27]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract declined slightly, and the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract rose [29]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volumes and positions of the Shanghai Nickel main contract and the stainless - steel main contract changed to varying degrees [29]. - **Industry - Chain Data**: The prices of various products in the nickel and stainless - steel industry chains, such as 1 imported nickel, high - nickel pig iron, and stainless - steel products, showed different trends [29]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The Indonesian forestry working group took over more than 148 hectares of the PT Weda Bay Nickel mining area; China suspended an unofficial subsidy for copper and nickel imports from Russia; the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies; Indonesia issued a ministerial order regarding the RKAB approval process; Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on China and export controls on "all key software"; Indonesia suspended the issuance of new smelting licenses through the OSS platform; safety inspections in Indonesian industrial parks affected the production of some nickel - wet - process projects; New York Fed President John Williams and Fed Governor Stephen Miran made dovish remarks, increasing the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in December [29][32]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both nickel and stainless steel [33].

Market Performance - The three major U.S. indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones down by 31.96 points (0.07%) to 47850.94, the Nasdaq up by 51.04 points (0.22%) to 23505.14, and the S&P 500 up by 7.40 points (0.11%) to 6857.12 [1] - European indices also saw gains, with the German DAX30 up by 212.58 points (0.90%) to 23895.03, the UK FTSE 100 up by 23.03 points (0.24%) to 9715.10, and the French CAC40 up by 34.61 points (0.43%) to 8122.03 [1] Commodity Prices - Light crude oil futures for January 2026 rose by $0.72 to $59.67 per barrel, a 1.22% increase, while February Brent crude oil futures increased by $0.59 to $63.26 per barrel, a 0.94% rise [2] - Spot gold increased by 0.14% to $4208.73 [4] Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin fell by 1.2% to $92310.95, and Ethereum dropped over 1.6% to $3136.99 [3] Macroeconomic Indicators - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. decreased to 191,000, with a four-week moving average dropping to 214,700 [5] - The U.S. Treasury debt surpassed $30 trillion for the first time, growing over 100% since 2018, with total national debt reaching $38.4 trillion [6] - The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage in the U.S. fell to 6.19%, the lowest since October of the previous year, leading to a 2.5% increase in mortgage applications [6] Company News - Meta Platforms plans to cut its metaverse budget by up to 30%, indicating a shift in strategy as the anticipated industry competition has not materialized [7] - Apple announced a high-level executive change, with Jennifer Newstead set to become the new General Counsel in March 2026, succeeding Kate Adams [8] - The European Commission is seeking industry feedback on Google's proposed compliance measures to address antitrust issues related to its advertising technology business, which has faced fines of nearly €3 billion (approximately $3.5 billion) [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View - In early December, the market will still be in a multi - vacuum period of macro data, performance, and policies. Without clear trading guidance, the market is expected to maintain a random - walk state, and stock index futures will remain volatile. The domestic economic fundamentals, with all three major PMI indices in the contraction range in November, especially the manufacturing PMI in contraction for 8 consecutive months, may have a negative impact on market sentiment [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Contract Prices - IF主力合约（2512）price is 4530.6, up 17.2; IH主力合约（2512）price is 2968.2, up 13.0; IC主力合约（2512）price is 6983.2, up 42.0; IM主力合约（2512）price is 7213.4, up 28.0 [2]. - Price differences between different contracts show various changes, such as IF - IH当月合约价差 up 2.6 to 1562.4, IC - IF当月合约价差 up 20.4 to 2452.6 [2]. - Differences between different quarters and the current month also vary, e.g., IF当季 - 当月 is - 38.4, down 2.6 [2]. Futures Position - IF前20名净持仓 is - 19,498.00, down 175.0; IH前20名净持仓 is - 11,870.00, up 487.0; IC前20名净持仓 is - 21,167.00, up 182.0; IM前20名净持仓 is - 33,240.00, down 1242.0 [2]. Spot Prices - The Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 index is 4546.57, up 15.5; the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 index is 2974.3, up 11.3; the China Securities 500 index is 7012.8, up 16.5; the China Securities 1000 index data is provided, and A - share trading volume is 15,616.65 billion yuan, up 0.4 [2]. Market Sentiment - North - bound trading volume is 1873.09 billion yuan, up 75.49; main - force funds are - 686.96 billion yuan, down 321.57; the proportion of rising stocks is 26.67%, up 0.22; Shibor is 1.302%, up 0.001 [2]. - IO平值看涨期权收盘价（2512）is 40.60, up 3.40; IO平值看跌期权收盘价（2512）is 58.40, down 8.60 [2]. - The 20 - day volatility of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 index is 13.89%, down 0.97; the trading volume PCR is 60.61%, down 13.68; the open - interest PCR is 73.71%, up 0.39 [2]. Wind Market Strength - Weakness Analysis - The strength of all A - shares is 3.80, up 0.40; the technical aspect is 2.70, up 0.10; the capital aspect is 5.00, up 0.80 [2]. Industry News - A - share major indices closed with mixed results. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.06%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.4%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.01%. Trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets declined significantly, with nearly 3900 stocks falling. Most industry sectors declined, with the comprehensive and beauty - care sectors leading the decline, and the machinery and electronics sectors leading the gain [2]. - Overseas, the US small non - farm payrolls in November weakened significantly, supporting the expectation of a Fed rate cut in December. Domestically, in November, among the three major PMI indices, the non - manufacturing PMI and the composite PMI declined compared to October, only the manufacturing PMI rose slightly, and all three were in the contraction range, putting pressure on the market [2]. Key Data to Watch - On December 4, 20:30, watch the US Challenger job - cuts in November; 21:30, watch the US initial jobless claims for the week ending November 29. On December 5, 23:00, watch the US PCE and core PCE for November [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The inventory of Malaysian palm oil in November may reach a six - and - a - half - year high, which may put pressure on the benchmark Malaysian palm oil futures [9]. - The weather conditions in South America have different impacts on the growth of soybeans, corn and other crops, and the future weather trends need to be continuously monitored [5][6][7]. - The trading volume of domestic oils and meals decreased on December 3, and the开机 rate of oil mills increased [16]. - The market has high expectations for the Fed's interest rate cut in December [18]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Overnight Market - The closing prices and daily/overnight percentage changes of various futures such as Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude oil, and US soybeans are presented. The US dollar index and exchange rates of multiple currencies also show corresponding changes [1]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot prices, basis, and basis daily changes of DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal in different regions are provided, as well as the CNF premiums and quotes of imported soybeans from different origins [2]. 3.3 Important Fundamental Information 3.3.1 Production Area Weather - In southern Brazil, soil moisture is still favorable, but the decrease in rainfall frequency is worthy of attention. In northern Brazil, there is a lack of rainfall. In Argentina, the soybean - growing area will be dry this week and may receive rainfall this weekend or early next week. In the future, Argentina will be cool and dry in some areas, while Brazil will have wet weather overall but drought in the south [5][6][7]. 3.3.2 International Supply and Demand - Malaysian palm oil inventory in November is expected to reach 2.66 million tons, with a 7.78% month - on - month increase. Production is estimated at 1.98 million tons, a 3% decrease from the previous month. Exports are expected to drop 14.9% to 1.44 million tons. The annual production is expected to exceed 20 million tons for the first time [9]. - Argentina's 2025/26 soybean production is expected to be 46.9 million tons, with a sowing area of 16.7 million hectares. Ukrainian rapeseed production is expected to be stable at 3.4 million tons [12][13]. - The Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index reached a two - year high on Wednesday due to the sharp rise in Capesize ship freight rates [14]. 3.3.3 Domestic Supply and Demand - On December 3, the total trading volume of domestic oils decreased by 17% compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume of soybean meal decreased, and the oil mill opening rate increased to 55.09%. The "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" both rose [16]. 3.4 Macroeconomic News 3.4.1 International News - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 89%. The US ADP employment in November decreased by 32,000 people, and the employment growth in the second half of 2025 stagnated [18]. - Multiple US economic data such as the MBA mortgage application activity index, service industry PMI, and industrial output are released, as well as euro - zone PPI and service industry PMI data [19]. 3.4.2 Domestic News - On December 3, the US dollar/renminbi exchange rate was 7.0754, with the renminbi appreciating by 40 points. The central bank conducted 79.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 134 billion yuan [20]. 3.5 Capital Flow - On December 3, 2025, the futures market had a net capital inflow of 15.076 billion yuan, including 291 million yuan in commodity futures, 14.126 billion yuan in stock index futures, and 694 million yuan in treasury bond futures [23]. 3.6 Arbitrage Tracking No relevant content provided.

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2603 is volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is weak, with an overall view of volatile consolidation. The core logic is that the short - term expectation of interest rate cuts has decreased, while the medium - and long - term expectation of monetary easing still exists [1]. - For financial futures in the bond index sector (TL, T, TF, TS), the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is volatile, and the reference view is volatile consolidation. The core logic is that on one hand, the marginal weakening of macro data in October indicates that the future monetary policy environment is expected to be loose, providing strong support for bond futures. On the other hand, the difficulty of achieving the annual growth target is low, so there is no strong need for a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term, resulting in insufficient upward momentum for bond futures. Overall, bond futures will mainly show volatile consolidation in the short term [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Bond Index Sector - For TL2603, the short - term is volatile, the medium - term is volatile, the intraday is weak, with a view of volatile consolidation. The core logic is the change in interest rate cut expectations [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Bond Index Sector - The intraday view of TL, T, TF, TS is weak, the medium - term view is volatile, and the reference view is volatile consolidation. The driving factors include the weakening of October macro data and the low difficulty of achieving the annual growth target [5].

Group 1: Regulatory Pressures - The regulatory environment has tightened significantly, particularly affecting the real estate and high-pollution chemical sectors, leading to increased pressure on A-shares [3][4] - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has mandated that real estate companies' financing leverage cannot exceed 50%, and has implemented stricter regulations on pre-sale funds [3] - The chemical sector faces heightened environmental regulations, with a requirement for high-pollution companies to complete environmental upgrades by the end of 2026, which is expected to compress profit margins [4] Group 2: Macroeconomic Challenges - Key macroeconomic indicators have shown signs of slowing, with industrial production growth dropping to 4.9% in October 2025, below market expectations [5] - Consumer spending and export figures have also weakened, with retail sales growth at 2.9% and exports declining by 1.1% in October, reflecting a lack of demand [5][6] - The significant contraction in social financing and new loans indicates a lack of vitality in the real economy, further impacting market confidence [6] Group 3: Market Supply and Demand Dynamics - The A-share market is experiencing increased supply pressure due to a resurgence in IPOs, with total IPO financing reaching 1003.59 billion yuan in 2025, which may divert funds from existing stocks [7] - Large-scale lock-up shares are being released, creating potential selling pressure on individual stocks and affecting overall market sentiment [7] - The liquidity in the market is insufficient, as indicated by a slowdown in the growth of narrow money (M1), which reflects reduced economic activity [8] Group 4: External Trade Environment - The external trade environment has become more uncertain due to escalating trade sanctions from the U.S., which have negatively impacted export expectations for Chinese companies [9] - In October 2025, China's export growth turned negative at -1.1%, significantly down from the previous year's growth, indicating challenges in the external market [9] Group 5: Investment Strategies for Retail Investors - Retail investors are advised to avoid high-risk sectors such as traditional real estate and high-pollution chemicals, focusing instead on sectors with government support [10][11] - Emphasis is placed on sectors like technology innovation and green energy, which are aligned with policy directions and expected to perform better [11][12] - Investors should maintain a cautious approach, controlling their positions and avoiding blind bottom-fishing in declining sectors [12][13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The expectation of further loose monetary policy is not strong, and the bond market lacks short - term drivers [2]. - The money market was tight at the beginning of last week and then loosened. The weighted money interest rate increased marginally. Next week, there will be a large maturity of reverse repurchase in the open market, 90 billion yuan of MLF will mature, and government bond payments may reach 20 - 30 billion yuan. The central bank is likely to increase reverse repurchase and renew MLF in time, but the money interest rate may fluctuate at the end of the month [5]. - Overseas, the trading of the US interest - rate cut expectation has changed. The expectation of a December interest - rate cut has declined. After adjustment, there may still be trading opportunities [5]. - The bond market adjusted last week, especially the 30 - year variety. The short - term bond market is in a box - shock stage. The driving factors that may break the shock in the future include the implementation of the redemption fee new rule, the announcement of the central bank's bond - buying scale at the end of the month, and the release of November economic data. Unilateral strategies suggest range operation, and short - position investors can speed up the position - shifting pace next week [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Treasury Bond Futures Market - **Price Changes**: Last week, the 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract 2512 changed - 0.51% to 115.57, the 10 - year main contract 2512 changed 0.01% to 108.43, the 5 - year 2512 changed - 0.02% to 105.86, and the 2 - year 2512 changed 0.01% to 102.46 [19]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Last week, the trading volume of each variety significantly recovered, and the progress of position - shifting and contract - changing accelerated. The open interest of each variety decreased. For example, the 30 - year treasury bond futures had 176,275 open interests, a change of - 3026 hands compared with last week [26]. - **Basis and Implied Spread**: As of November 21, the basis of TL2512, T2512, TF2512, and TS2512 were 0.14, 0.08, 0.02, 0.00 respectively, with corresponding changes of 0, - 0.03, 0.01, 0 compared with last week. The implied spreads were 0.33BP, 0.27BP, 0.89BP, 0.09BP respectively, with corresponding changes of 0.1BP, - 0.25BP, 0.58BP, 0.12BP compared with last week [30]. - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of TL, T, TF, TS contracts 2512 - 2603 were 0.2, 0.19, - 0.05, 0.05 respectively, with corresponding changes of - 0.03, - 0.04, - 0.05, - 0.01 compared with last week. The inter - period spreads are expected to narrow, and it is recommended that long - position investors shift positions earlier and short - position investors later [34]. - **Cross - variety Spread**: The inter - period spreads of varieties within 10 years mostly narrowed last week, while the spreads between the 30 - year variety and the short - end widened, showing a differentiated feature [48]. 3.2. Macroeconomic Fundamental Tracking - **October PMI**: Slightly lower than expected. The manufacturing PMI was 49.0, a decrease of 0.8 points month - on - month. The decline was slightly larger than the seasonal average. The construction industry PMI fell 0.2 percentage points to 49.1%, but the new order and business activity expectation indexes rebounded. The service industry PMI rose 0.1 percentage points to 50.2% [52][60][64]. - **October Inflation Data**: Continued to improve, slightly higher than expected. CPI turned positive year - on - year, rising 0.5 percentage points to 0.2%. PPI was - 2.1% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.2% [72]. - **October Financial Data**: Weaker than expected. The new social financing scale was 81.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 59.7 billion yuan. The new loan scale was - 2.01 billion yuan, a year - on - year decline of 31.66 billion yuan [78]. - **October Export**: The year - on - year growth was - 1.1%, lower than the cumulative year - on - year of the first three quarters (6.1%) and the third - quarter year - on - year (6.6%). Exports to most regions slowed down, and the export of labor - intensive consumer goods declined [79][83]. - **October Industrial Added Value**: Declined. The month - on - month seasonally adjusted was 0.17%, significantly lower than the previous value of 0.65%. The production of some products decreased, and the reasons may include the transfer of export decline, the limited impact of policy - based financial instruments on construction products, and the negative impact of "anti - involution" on new energy products [90][96]. - **October Consumption**: Most categories improved, but the growth rate of high - base durable goods declined. The retail sales of consumer goods excluding automobiles increased 4.0% year - on - year, higher than the previous value of 3.2% [99]. - **October Fixed - Asset Investment**: Remained weak. The decline expanded, with the cumulative year - on - year changing from - 0.5% to - 1.7%, and the corresponding month - on - year was - 11.2% [111]. - **Consumption High - frequency Data**: Real - estate sales declined year - on - year, and automobile sales growth slowed down. Metro passenger volume and domestic flight numbers showed different trends [112]. - **Export High - frequency Data**: Although the export growth rate declined, it was resilient. The export container freight rate index rebounded in November, and the port throughput increased year - on - year [121][135]. 3.3. Policy - related Tracking - **15th Five - Year Plan Suggestions vs. 14th Five - Year Plan Suggestions**: The 15th Five - Year Plan pays more attention to total demand issues, emphasizes scientific and technological self - reliance, and has more specific goals in promoting consumption. It also has new requirements in industrial development, scientific and technological innovation, expanding domestic demand, system reform, opening - up, green development, and people's livelihood protection [145][146][147]. - **Recent Policy Meetings and Measures**: The State Council has made arrangements for the "two new" policies, and relevant departments have issued policies such as promoting urban high - quality development, increasing special bond issuance, and accelerating the investment of policy - based financial instruments [149]. - **Central Bank's Bond - trading Operations**: The central bank will resume open - market treasury bond trading operations. The net investment of various monetary policy tools in the current period shows different situations [150][151]. - **Trade War Progress**: Since 2025, the trade war and tariff game have intensified. The United States has continuously increased tariffs on Chinese imports, and China has carried out counter - measures. There was a brief easing in May, but the US tariff policy has encountered domestic resistance [154][156].

Core Points - The euro has shown a slight increase against the dollar, trading around 1.1520 after hitting a two-week low of 1.1490 [1] - The dollar index has retreated from multi-week highs, influenced by dovish comments from New York Fed President John Williams, leading to expectations of further easing in monetary policy by the Fed [2] - Recent macroeconomic data indicates a divergence in economic performance between the US and the Eurozone, with positive indicators in the US contrasting with weaker manufacturing activity in the Eurozone [3] - Market focus has shifted to upcoming economic data and policy signals from the Eurozone, particularly the German IFO Business Climate Index and comments from ECB President Christine Lagarde [4] - Technical analysis suggests the euro/dollar pair is in a short-term downtrend, facing resistance around 1.1550 and support at the psychological level of 1.1500 [6]

Report Summary Core Viewpoints - The report provides a forward - looking analysis of key events and data releases in the current week, including economic data from the US and China, central bank operations, and new product listings in the futures market. It also analyzes the potential impact of these events on various futures prices [2]. Key Events and Data by Date November 24 - The National Bureau of Statistics will release the market prices of important production materials in the circulation field in mid - November, covering 9 categories and 50 products [3]. November 25 - 900 billion yuan of MLF is due, and the central bank is expected to conduct incremental roll - over operations [4]. - The US Department of Labor will announce the September PPI, with an expected annual rate of 2.7% and a previous value of 2.6%; the expected annual rate of core PPI is 2.7%, and the previous value is 2.8% [5]. - The US Department of Commerce will announce US September retail sales, with an August monthly rate of 0.63% and an annual rate of 5.00% [7]. - The US Conference Board will announce the November consumer confidence index, with an expected value of 93.3 and a previous value of 94.6. A lower value may boost gold and silver futures prices but suppress non - ferrous metals, crude oil, and related commodity futures prices [8]. November 26 - The US Department of Labor will announce the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending November 22, with an expected value of 215,000 and a previous value of 220,000. A slightly lower value may slightly boost industrial product futures (except gold and silver) but suppress gold and silver futures [9]. - The US Department of Commerce will announce the preliminary monthly rate of durable goods orders in October, with an expected value of 0.2% and a previous value of 2.9%. A lower value may suppress non - ferrous metals, crude oil, and related commodity futures prices but boost gold and silver futures prices [10]. - The US Department of Commerce will announce the September PCE price index. The expected annual rate of PCE price index is 2.7%, the previous value is 2.7%; the expected annual rate of core PCE price index is 2.9%, the previous value is 2.9%; the expected monthly rate of PCE core price index is 0.3%, and the previous value is 0.2%. Slight changes may strengthen the market's expectation of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in November [11]. - The US Department of Commerce will announce the revised value of the third - quarter GDP. The expected annualized quarterly rate of real GDP is 3.0%, the initial value is 3.8%, and the final value of the second - quarter annualized quarterly rate is 3.0% [12]. - The US Department of Commerce will announce October new home sales. The expected annualized total of seasonally - adjusted new home sales is 700,000 units, the previous value is 800,000 units; the expected monthly rate is - 11.5%, and the previous value is 20.5%. A significantly lower value may suppress non - ferrous metals futures prices but boost gold and silver futures prices [13]. - The US EIA will announce the change in EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending November 21. A continued decline may boost crude oil and related commodity futures prices [15]. November 27 - The Fed will release the Beige Book of Economic Conditions. Attention should be paid to its content and impact on related futures prices [16]. - Platinum and palladium futures contracts will be listed on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange. Platinum and palladium option contracts will be listed on November 28. These listings will enrich the futures market product system in China [17][18]. - The National Bureau of Statistics will announce the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in October. The profit of these enterprises increased by 21.6% in September [19]. November 30 - The National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing will announce China's official manufacturing PMI and non - manufacturing PMI for November. The expected manufacturing PMI is 48.8, the previous value is 49.0; the expected non - manufacturing PMI is 50.0, the previous value is 50.1. Slightly lower values may slightly suppress commodity futures (mainly industrial product futures) and stock index futures but boost treasury bond futures [20]. - The 40th OPEC and non - OPEC Ministerial Meeting, the 63rd OPEC+ Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) Meeting, and the monthly meeting of eight OPEC+ member countries will be held. Attention should be paid to the meeting results and their impact on crude oil and related commodity futures prices [22].

Energy Production in October 2025 - In October, the production of raw coal remained high, with an output of 410 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.3%. The average daily output was 13.12 million tons [7] - Crude oil production increased to 18 million tons, a year-on-year growth of 1.3%, with a daily average of 581,000 tons [7] - Natural gas production was 22.1 billion cubic meters, showing a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, with a daily average of 710 million cubic meters [7] - Electricity production saw a significant increase, reaching 800.2 billion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year growth of 7.9% [7][8] Social Consumer Goods Retail - The total retail sales of consumer goods in October reached 462.91 billion yuan, growing by 2.9% year-on-year. Excluding automobiles, the retail sales amounted to 420.36 billion yuan, with a growth of 4.0% [10] - Online retail sales from January to October totaled 1.279 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.6%, with physical goods online retail sales at 1.03984 trillion yuan, growing by 6.3% [11] Fixed Asset Investment - From January to October, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 4.08914 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7%. In October alone, the investment dropped by 1.62% [13] - Investment in the primary industry was 80.75 billion yuan, increasing by 2.9%, while the secondary industry saw an investment of 1.48411 trillion yuan, growing by 4.8% [14] - The tertiary industry experienced a decline in investment by 5.3%, with infrastructure investment (excluding power, heat, gas, and water production and supply) decreasing by 0.1% [15] Industrial Value Added - The industrial value added for October showed a year-on-year growth of 4.9%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.17% [18] - The mining industry increased by 4.5%, manufacturing by 4.9%, and electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply by 5.4% [19] - Among 41 major industries, 29 reported a year-on-year increase in value added, with notable growth in coal mining (6.5%) and automotive manufacturing (16.8%) [20][21]