Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights an improvement in inflation data, leading to a temporary shift in market investment styles, with CPI rising from -0.3% to 0.2% and PPI improving from -2.3% to -2.1% [1] - The recent slight improvement in inflation data indicates a reduction in price downward pressure, with rising prices in upstream resources and some industrial products triggering local market hotspots [1] - The consumer sector, which had been quiet for a long time, has seen a significant rebound due to the CPI returning to positive territory, reflecting the main characteristics of the year-end consolidation market: sector rotation, unclear main lines, and balanced allocation [1] Group 2 - On Monday, the stock market experienced a rebound with increased trading volume, with the Shanghai Composite Index consolidating before a strong upward movement, closing near its highest point [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index showed weaker performance compared to the Shanghai Composite, primarily adjusting throughout the day before finally turning upward, closing above the 5-day moving average [1] - The market's focus is expected to remain on the macroeconomic data for October, which will guide adjustments in asset and industry allocation based on economic conditions [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide overall industry investment ratings. However, it offers short - term trend outlooks for various commodities in the black series: - **High - level Repeated**: Iron ore, coke, and coking coal [2] - **Wide - range Fluctuations**: Rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, and silicomanganese [2] - **Oscillatory Repeated**: Logs [2] 2. Core Views The report presents the latest market data and news for different commodities in the black series, including futures and spot prices, trading volumes, positions, and various price spreads. It also provides a short - term trend outlook for each commodity, with a trend strength index ranging from - 2 to 2, where all commodities in this report have a trend strength of 0, indicating a neutral view. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Futures Price**: The closing price of the iron ore futures contract was 760.5 yuan/ton, down 17.0 yuan/ton (-2.19%) [4]. - **Spot Price**: Imported ore prices decreased, while domestic ore prices remained stable. The price of lump ore (65%) dropped by 14.0 yuan/ton to 878.0 yuan/ton [4]. - **Price Spread**: The basis and some inter - contract spreads changed slightly [4]. - **News**: In October 2025, the national consumer price index rose by 0.2% year - on - year [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Futures Price**: The closing price of the RB2601 rebar futures contract was 3,034 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton (0.20%); the HC2601 hot - rolled coil futures contract closed at 3,245 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton (-0.34%) [7]. - **Spot Price**: Rebar prices in some regions increased slightly, while hot - rolled coil prices decreased slightly [7]. - **Price Spread**: The basis and some inter - contract spreads changed [7]. - **News**: In October 2025, China imported 50.3 million tons of steel, a decrease of 4.5 million tons (8.2%) from the previous month. From January to October, the cumulative steel imports decreased by 11.9% year - on - year. Steel production, inventory, and apparent demand data also showed changes [8][9]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Futures Price**: The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese futures contracts decreased. For example, the closing price of the ferrosilicon 2601 contract was 5526 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton [11]. - **Spot Price**: The price of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia was 5220 yuan/ton, and the price of silicomanganese was 5620 yuan/ton. The price of semi - coke increased by 60 yuan/ton to 820 yuan/ton [11]. - **Price Spread**: The basis, inter - contract spreads, and cross - commodity spreads changed [11]. - **News**: The starting price of lump coal for semi - coke raw materials increased, and the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in some regions were reported. The inventory of manganese ore in ports changed, and the quotes of manganese ore suppliers for December increased [11][12][13]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Futures Price**: The closing price of the JM2601 coking coal futures contract was 1270 yuan/ton, down 20.5 yuan/ton (-1.6%); the J2601 coke futures contract closed at 1756.5 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (-1.1%) [14]. - **Spot Price**: The prices of most coking coal and coke varieties remained stable, with a few showing small changes. For example, the arrival price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade coke increased by 50 yuan/ton to 1545 yuan/ton [14]. - **Price Spread**: The basis and inter - contract spreads changed [14]. - **News**: In October 2025, the national consumer price index rose by 0.2% year - on - year [15]. Logs - **Futures Price**: The prices of different log futures contracts showed small fluctuations. For example, the closing price of the 2601 contract was 778.5 yuan, down 0.1% [17]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of most contracts decreased, while the positions of some contracts increased slightly [17]. - **Price Spread**: The basis and inter - contract spreads changed [17]. - **News**: Starting from November 10, 2025, China will resume importing logs from the United States [19].

Economic Data Release - The National Bureau of Statistics will release October economic data on November 14, including industrial added value, fixed asset investment, and retail sales [2] - Financial data for October, such as M2, new loans, and social financing, is also expected to be released next week [3] Industry Conferences - A series of industry conferences will take place in November, including the 2025 China Robot Industry Development Conference from November 10 to 12, and the 12th China (Suzhou) Battery New Energy Industry International Summit Forum from November 11 to 13 [4] - Other notable events include the 2025 World Power Battery Conference, the 2025 Fourth China Nuclear Energy High-Quality Development Conference, and the 2025 6G Development Conference [4] Fuel Price Adjustment - A new round of domestic fuel price adjustments will begin on November 10 at 24:00, with an expected increase of 130 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel based on the average crude oil price of 62.52 USD per barrel [5] Stock Unlocking - Over 24.7 billion yuan worth of restricted shares will be unlocked next week, with a peak unlocking date on November 10 [6] - The top three companies by unlocking market value are Youyan Silicon (99.91 million yuan), Xin Nuowei (49.48 million yuan), and Juxing Technology (32.97 million yuan) [6] New Stock Opportunities - Two new stocks will be issued next week: Nant Technology on November 11 and Hai'an Group on November 14 [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October 2025, China's import growth rate declined and exports turned negative year-on-year, indicating that the foundation of China's economic recovery is not solid, domestic demand remains weak, and external demand is under increasing downward pressure. The export will face downward pressure in the future. The stock index should be cautiously viewed for short - term rebounds and the risk of a new decline should be watched out for. Gold may be under short - term pressure and has a risk of deep adjustment in the medium - long term [40]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macroeconomic Data - In October 2025, China's imports increased by 1% year - on - year, with the growth rate dropping by 6.4 percentage points from the previous month, and exports decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, the first negative growth since March, reflecting weakening domestic demand and increasing downward pressure on external demand [3][4]. 2. Stock Index Fundamental Data - From January to September 2025, the profits of industrial enterprises above a designated size turned positive year - on - year, and the growth rate of finished product inventories rebounded. However, after removing the impact of the low base effect in the previous year, corporate profitability remained weak, and enterprises were still in the stage of active inventory reduction [16]. - The margin trading balance in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets rose slightly to 24725.92 billion yuan. The central bank conducted 495.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations this week, achieving a net withdrawal of 1572.2 billion yuan [18]. 3. Gold Fundamental Data - Many Fed officials made hawkish remarks, believing that the US economy is still robust, the inflation risk has not been eliminated, and caution is needed regarding future interest rate cuts. The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond has returned above the 4% mark [28]. - The warehouse receipts and inventory of Shanghai gold futures are slowing down, and the inventory of New York COMEX gold is continuously decreasing, reflecting a cooling of the market's bullish sentiment [39]. 4. Strategy Recommendations - Short - term: Due to the marginal weakening of domestic economic data, the stock index should be cautiously viewed for short - term rebounds. Fed officials' hawkish remarks have further dampened the market's expectation of another interest rate cut in December, and gold may continue to adjust after a short - term rebound [40]. - Medium - long term: The valuation of the stock index will still be dragged down by the decline in corporate profit growth at the molecular end, and the support at the denominator end mainly comes from the recovery of risk appetite. Gold has a risk of deep adjustment due to factors such as the cooling of the expectation of another Fed interest rate cut in December [40].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macroeconomic indicators show mixed trends, with some signs of slowdown and others indicating growth potential. For example, GDP growth slowed slightly in Q3 2025, while export and import values increased year - on - year [1]. - The commodity market is influenced by various factors such as political events, supply - demand dynamics, and corporate strategies. Gold prices rose due to concerns about the US economy, and oil prices fell on fears of oversupply [4][9]. - The financial market is affected by central bank policies, government debt management, and international economic relations. The bond market continues to be volatile, and the stock market shows different performances in different regions [12][29]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro Data Overview - GDP growth in Q3 2025 was 4.8% year - on - year, down from 5.2% in the previous quarter [1]. - The manufacturing PMI in October 2025 was 49.0%, lower than the previous month and last year [1]. - The non - manufacturing PMI in October 2025 was 50.1%, slightly higher than the previous month but lower than last year [1]. - Social financing scale and money supply indicators showed different trends, with M1 growth accelerating and M2 growth slowing [1]. - CPI and PPI were both in negative territory in September 2025, indicating weak inflationary pressures [1]. - Fixed - asset investment decreased in September 2025, while social consumption and foreign trade showed growth [1]. 2. Commodity Investment Reference Comprehensive - China's October S&P services PMI was 52.6, and the composite PMI was 51.8, both slightly lower than the previous month [2]. - China announced measures to implement the consensus of the China - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur, including tariff adjustments and relaxation of export controls [2]. - The US Supreme Court debated the legality of Trump's large - scale tariff policy, and a decision may be announced in December [2]. - On November 5, 2025, 34 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 35 had negative basis [3]. Metals - International precious metal futures generally rose on November 5, 2025, due to concerns about the US government shutdown and economic outlook [4]. - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China plans to open a precious metal warehouse at Hong Kong International Airport [5]. - Anhui Province released a draft plan for the high - quality development of the gold industry from 2025 - 2027 [5]. - London Metal Exchange inventory data on November 4 showed changes in tin, lead, zinc, and other metal inventories [6]. Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted the trading limits and margin ratios for alumina futures contracts [7]. - Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group won the exploration rights for a copper - gold - molybdenum mine [7]. - The EU will investigate the sale of a nickel mine business to China Minmetals [7]. Energy and Chemicals - On November 5, 2025, US and Brent crude oil futures fell due to concerns about oversupply and increased US crude oil production [9]. - Libya plans to increase oil and gas production and is in talks with Chevron and Egyptian companies [9]. - Poland is negotiating to import more US LNG for Ukraine and Slovakia [9]. - Saudi Aramco set the official selling price for Arabian Light crude oil to Asia in December [9]. Agricultural Products - Chinese and US officials discussed agricultural trade, and China hopes the US will create a favorable environment for cooperation [10]. - The pig industry is facing challenges such as low prices, overcapacity, and high debt, and industry self - regulation is needed [10][11]. 3. Financial News Compilation Open Market - On November 5, 2025, the central bank conducted 655 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 4922 billion yuan [12]. Key News - China announced measures to implement the China - US economic and trade consultation consensus [13]. - The US Supreme Court debated the legality of Trump's tariff policy [13]. - China's October S&P services and composite PMIs decreased [13]. - Premier Li Qiang emphasized China's commitment to high - quality development and opening - up [13]. - Chinese and US officials discussed agricultural trade cooperation [14]. - The Chinese Foreign Ministry responded to the US Treasury Secretary's remarks [14]. - China and Russia agreed to strengthen macro - economic policy coordination [14]. - The central bank's 10 - month bond - buying operation resumed but was lower than expected [15]. - The Ministry of Finance established a Debt Management Department [16]. - The US Treasury announced its quarterly refinancing plan [17]. - Indonesia issued offshore RMB bonds in Hong Kong [17]. - Global bond sales reached a record high in 2025 [17]. - The US government shutdown continued, potentially affecting the economy [17]. - US ADP employment data was better than expected in October [18]. - There were various bond - related events, including debt restructuring, rating changes, and issuance cancellations [18][19]. Bond Market Summary - The Chinese bond market continued to fluctuate weakly, with limited impact from the central bank's bond - buying [20]. - Bond prices in the exchange market showed different trends, and interest rates in the money market had mixed changes [20][21]. - Yields of European and US bonds generally rose [24]. Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar depreciated slightly, while the offshore RMB appreciated [25]. - The US dollar index fell slightly, and non - US currencies showed different performances [25]. Research Report Highlights - Shenwan Fixed - Income believes that the probability of interest rate cuts may marginally increase, and the bond market may shift from a duration strategy to a carry - trade strategy [26]. - Yangtze River Fixed - Income expects the bond market to continue its recovery in Q4, with 10 - year Treasury bond yields likely to decline [27]. Today's Reminders - On November 6, 2025, a large number of bonds will be listed, issued, paid, and have their principal and interest repaid [28]. 4. Stock Market Key News - A - shares opened lower and closed higher, with the energy storage and new energy sectors leading the gains [29]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell slightly, and the Southbound funds had a large net purchase [29][30].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The report provides trend judgments and fundamental data for various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy chemicals, agricultural products, etc., and analyzes the impact of macro - economic and industry news on commodity prices. For example, gold is affected by government shutdown on liquidity, copper lacks clear driving forces and shows price fluctuations, etc. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Government shutdown continues to affect liquidity, with a trend intensity of 0. The price of Shanghai Gold 2512 closed at 912.26 yesterday, down 0.36%, and the night - session closed at 916.38, up 0.63% [5]. - **Silver**: Shows an oscillating rebound, with a trend intensity of - 1. The price of Shanghai Silver 2512 closed at 11276 yesterday, up 0.33%, and the night - session closed at 11381, up 1.58% [5]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Lacks clear driving forces, with price oscillations and a trend intensity of 0. The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 85670 yesterday, down 0.08%, and the night - session closed at 85900, up 0.27% [9]. - **Zinc**: Ranges within an interval, with a trend intensity of 0. The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 22650 yesterday, down 0.09% [12]. - **Lead**: Overseas inventory reduction supports the price, with a trend intensity of 0. The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 17475 yesterday, up 0.34% [16]. - **Tin**: Attention should be paid to macro - impacts, with a trend intensity of 1. The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 282090 yesterday, down 0.58%, and the night - session closed at 282820, up 0.28% [19]. - **Aluminum**: Runs strongly, with a trend intensity of 0. The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 21395 yesterday, down 70 [23]. - **Alumina**: Bounces back from the bottom, with a trend intensity of 0. The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2772 yesterday, up 2 [23]. - **Nickel**: Accumulated inventory at the smelting end suppresses the price, while uncertainties at the ore end provide support, with a trend intensity of 0. The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 120030 yesterday, up 330 [26]. - **Stainless Steel**: The steel price runs in a narrow range at a low level, with a trend intensity of 0. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12535 yesterday, down 10 [26]. Energy Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Oscillates weakly, with a trend intensity of 0. The closing price of the 2511 contract was 77800 yesterday, up 640 [30]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The warehouse receipts are cleared, and the market is strong, with a trend intensity of 1. The closing price of the Si2601 contract was 9020 yesterday, up 135 [34]. - **Polysilicon**: The market may correct as the news - based expectations are not met, with a trend intensity of - 1. The closing price of the PS2601 contract was 53355 yesterday, down 360 [34]. - **Iron Ore**: Repeats at a high level, with a trend intensity of 0. The closing price of the 12601 contract was 776.0 yesterday, up 0.5 [37]. - **Rebar**: Affected by the sector sentiment, it oscillates weakly, with a trend intensity of 0. The closing price of the RB2601 contract was 3024 yesterday, down 37 [40]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Affected by the sector sentiment, it oscillates weakly, with a trend intensity of 0. The closing price of the HC2601 contract was 3253 yesterday, down 28 [40]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: There is a game between long and short forces, with wide - range oscillations, and a trend intensity of 0. The closing price of the silicon ferrosilicon 2601 contract was 5560 yesterday, up 50 [44]. - **Manganese Silicide**: There is a game between long and short forces, with wide - range oscillations, and a trend intensity of 0. The closing price of the manganese silicide 2601 contract was 5776 yesterday, up 22 [44]. - **Coke**: Repeats at a high level, with a trend intensity of 0. The closing price of the J2601 contract was 1753 yesterday, up 24 [48]. - **Coking Coal**: Repeats at a high level, with a trend intensity of 0. The closing price of the JM2601 contract was 1268.5 yesterday, up 15.5 [48]. - **Log**: Oscillates repeatedly, with a trend intensity of 0. The closing price of the 2511 contract was 741 yesterday, up 0.1% [51]. - **Para - Xylene**: Aromatic blending oil supports the valuation, with a high - level oscillating market [54]. - **PTA**: The demand is acceptable, but there is still supply pressure, with a high - level oscillating market [54]. - **MEG**: The supply pressure is large, and the trend is weak [54].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market has witnessed the realization of expectations and a short - term correction. With a tight supply at the mine end, it is advisable to go long on SHFE copper at low levels [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price Data - The market was strong in the first half of the week, with the spot premium declining and rebounding in the second half [11] - The LME copper 0 - 3M premium strengthened on a week - on - week basis [12] 3.2 Fundamental Data - The average price of the copper concentrate TC index increased by $0.55/ton week - on - week to - $42.15/ton, still at a low level [16] - The inventory of copper concentrates at ten ports decreased by 52,000 tons week - on - week to 626,100 tons [19] - The price difference between refined and scrap copper strengthened on a week - on - week basis [21] - China's electrolytic copper production in October decreased month - on - month [23] - China imported 485,000 tons of unwrought copper and copper products in September, and the cumulative import volume from January to September decreased by 1.7% year - on - year [25] - The spot inventory of electrolytic copper increased week - on - week, while the bonded area inventory decreased slightly [28] - LME copper continued to see inventory reduction, while COMEX copper continued to accumulate inventory [29] - The weekly operating rate of refined copper rods decreased, and the high price significantly suppressed downstream procurement [32] - From October 1st to 26th, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the Chinese market were flat year - on - year [34] - The shipments of leading photovoltaic module enterprises were satisfactory, and centralized projects showed signs of recovery [35] - The planned production volume of household air conditioners in November decreased by 23.7% compared with the actual production volume of the same period last year [36] 3.3 Macroeconomic Data - China's official manufacturing PMI in October dropped to 49, while the non - manufacturing index rose to 50.1 [39] - The European Central Bank maintained the deposit rate at 2% for the third time, and the economic resilience withstood the headwinds of trade [41] - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points in the October meeting and will end the balance sheet reduction in December [42]

Core Insights - The Indian stock markets are expected to be influenced by quarterly earnings, macroeconomic data announcements, and global trends during a holiday-shortened week [1][3] Macroeconomic Data - Key macroeconomic indicators to be released include the final readings of the HSBC manufacturing PMI, as well as the HSBC services and composite PMI data, which will provide insights into domestic growth momentum [3][5] Corporate Earnings - Major companies set to announce their quarterly results include Bharti Airtel, Titan Company, Adani Enterprises, Adani Ports, InterGlobe Aviation, Mahindra & Mahindra, State Bank of India, Lupin, Bajaj Auto, and Hindalco [4][7] - The ongoing corporate earnings season has shown mixed results so far, which will be closely monitored by the market [7] Foreign Investment Activity - Foreign investors have turned net buyers with a net infusion of ₹14,610 crore in October after three months of withdrawals, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment [5][6] Market Trends - The BSE benchmark dropped by 273.17 points (0.32%) and the NSE Nifty dipped by 73.05 points (0.28%) last week, reflecting profit-booking by investors after a sustained rally [6][7] - Movements in the Indian rupee against the dollar will also significantly impact investor sentiment and sectoral trends [6]

Core Insights - The Indian stock markets are expected to be influenced by quarterly earnings, macroeconomic data announcements, and global trends during a holiday-shortened week [1][2] Macroeconomic Data - Key macroeconomic indicators to be released include the final readings of the HSBC manufacturing PMI, as well as the HSBC services and composite PMI data, which will provide insights into domestic growth momentum [2][5] Corporate Earnings - Major companies set to announce their quarterly results include Bharti Airtel, Titan Company, Adani Enterprises, Adani Ports, InterGlobe Aviation, Mahindra & Mahindra, State Bank of India, Lupin, Bajaj Auto, and Hindalco [3] Foreign Investment Activity - Foreign investors have turned net buyers with a net infusion of ₹14,610 crore in October after three months of withdrawals, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment [4] Market Trends - The BSE benchmark dropped by 273.17 points or 0.32%, while the NSE Nifty decreased by 73.05 points or 0.28% last week, reflecting profit-booking by investors after a sustained rally [6][7] Global Influences - Developments related to trade deals and trends in major international markets will be closely monitored for directional cues, alongside the ongoing corporate earnings season which has shown mixed results [3][7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The short - term and medium - term outlook for Treasury bond futures is mainly characterized by consolidation, with limited upside and downside potential. Short - term expectations of interest rate cuts have decreased, but medium - and long - term expectations of a loose monetary policy remain. The market is supported by the need for a loose monetary environment in the long run due to insufficient domestic effective demand, but short - term upward momentum is lacking as the macro - economic data shows strong resilience and the necessity for a full - scale interest rate cut is low [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2512 variety, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are "sideways", "sideways", and "sideways with a weak bias" respectively, with an overall view of "sideways". The core logic is that short - term expectations of interest rate cuts have decreased while medium - and long - term expectations of a loose policy remain [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price and Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties TL, T, TF, and TS have an intraday view of "sideways with a weak bias" and a medium - term view of "sideways", with a reference view of "sideways". The core logic is that Treasury bond futures consolidated yesterday. After the meeting between the Chinese and US presidents, Sino - US economic and trade issues have been substantially eased, reducing uncertainty risks. Domestically, although there is a need for a loose monetary environment in the long run due to insufficient effective demand, the macro - economic data shows strong resilience, making a full - scale interest rate cut less necessary. Therefore, in the short term, Treasury bond futures have limited upside and downside potential and will mainly consolidate [5].