Economic Data - The US May core PPI increased by 3% year-on-year and 0.1% month-on-month, both below expectations[4] - Initial jobless claims in the US last week were 248,000, exceeding expectations[4] - The US Department of Commerce announced tariffs on various steel household appliances starting June 23[4] - May maritime imports in the US saw a significant decline[4] Market Performance - The 2-year US Treasury yield fell by 5 basis points to 3.897%[4] - The 5-year US Treasury yield decreased by 5.6 basis points to 3.961%[4] - The 10-year US Treasury yield dropped by 6.11 basis points to 4.359%[4] - The Baltic Dry Index closed at 1738.00, up 3.45%[5] - The Nasdaq Index closed at 19662.48, up 0.24%[5] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 42967.62, up 0.24%[5] - The S&P 500 closed at 6045.26, up 0.38%[5] - The Hang Seng Index closed at 24035.38, down 1.36%[5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate within a range due to repeated expectations [2][4]. - Rebar and hot-rolled coil are subject to wide fluctuations under the influence of macro sentiment [2][6]. - Ferrosilicon is expected to have a weak oscillation due to sector sentiment resonance [2][10]. - Silicomanganese is expected to have a weak oscillation as the quotes of mining enterprises move down [2][10]. - Coke is expected to have wide fluctuations [2][14]. - Coking coal is expected to have wide fluctuations as safety inspections become stricter [2][15]. - Steam coal is expected to have wide fluctuations as demand still needs to be released [2][19]. - Logs are expected to oscillate repeatedly [2][23]. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental Tracking**: The closing price of iron ore futures was 704.0 yuan/ton, down 3.0 yuan or -0.42%. The positions decreased by 12,525 hands. Among spot prices, the prices of imported and domestic ores mostly declined slightly [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In May, the CPI decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, and the PPI decreased by 0.4% month-on-month [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of iron ore is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [4]. Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Tracking**: The closing prices of rebar and hot-rolled coil futures declined, with decreases of -0.70% and -0.87% respectively. In terms of trading volume and positions, both showed certain changes. Spot prices generally decreased, and the basis and spreads also had corresponding fluctuations [6]. - **Macro and Industry News**: According to the weekly data of Steel Union on June 12, in terms of production, rebar decreased by 10.89 tons, hot-rolled coil decreased by 4.1 tons, and the total of five major varieties decreased by 21.53 tons. In terms of total inventory, rebar decreased by 12.4 tons, hot-rolled coil increased by 4.77 tons, and the total of five major varieties decreased by 9.25 tons. In terms of apparent demand, rebar decreased by 9.06 tons, hot-rolled coil decreased by 1.04 tons, and the total of five major varieties decreased by 14.07 tons. In May 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached 2.649 million and 2.686 million respectively, with month-on-month increases of 1.1% and 3.7%, and year-on-year increases of 11.6% and 11.2%. In May 2025, China exported 10.578 million tons of steel, a month-on-month increase of 1.1%; from January to May, the cumulative steel exports were 48.469 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.9%. In May, China imported 481,000 tons of steel, a month-on-month decrease of 7.9%; from January to May, the cumulative steel imports were 2.553 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 16.1%. In late May 2025, key steel enterprises produced 23 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.091 million tons, a daily output decrease of 4.9% month-on-month; 21.04 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.913 million tons, a daily output decrease of 3.5% month-on-month; and 23.94 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 2.177 million tons, a daily output increase of 2.5% month-on-month [6][7][8]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of rebar and hot-rolled coil are both 0, indicating a neutral outlook [6]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Tracking**: The closing prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese futures declined. Spot prices also decreased. The basis, spreads between near and far months, and cross-variety spreads all had corresponding changes [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On June 12, the prices of 72 and 75 ferrosilicon in different regions were reported, and the prices of some grades decreased. The price quotes of silicomanganese 6517 in the north and south were also reported. A large steel group in Hebei increased the procurement volume of silicomanganese and 75B ferrosilicon in June compared with May. Comilog announced a decrease in the quotation of Gabon blocks to China in July 2025, and United Mining (CML) also decreased its quotation to China [11]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of ferrosilicon is 0, indicating a neutral outlook; the trend intensity of silicomanganese is -1, indicating a bearish outlook [13]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Tracking**: The closing prices of coking coal and coke futures declined, with decreases of -2.17% and -2.03% respectively. In terms of trading volume and positions, there were certain changes. Spot prices were mostly stable, and the basis and spreads also had corresponding fluctuations [15]. - **Price and Position Situation**: The quotes of coking coal in northern ports were reported, and the CCI metallurgical coal index on June 12 was also provided. In terms of positions, on June 12, from the positions of the top 20 members of the DCE, the long positions of the coking coal JM2509 contract increased by 4,909 hands, and the short positions increased by 3,349 hands; the long positions of the coke J2509 contract decreased by 803 hands, and the short positions increased by 304 hands [15][17]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of coke and coking coal are both -1, indicating a bearish outlook [17]. Steam Coal - **Yesterday's Domestic Market**: The steam coal ZC2507 had no trading yesterday. The previous opening price was 931.6 yuan/ton, the highest was 931.6 yuan/ton, the lowest was 840.0 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 840.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 51.4 yuan from the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume was 18 lots, and the positions were 0 [20]. - **Fundamentals**: The quotes of foreign trade steam coal in southern ports and domestic steam coal production areas were reported. In terms of positions, on June 12, from the positions of the top 20 members of the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, the long and short positions of the steam coal ZC2507 contract both decreased by 0 hands [21]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of steam coal is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [22]. Logs - **Fundamental Tracking**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of different log futures contracts all showed certain fluctuations. The prices of log spot products also had different degrees of changes, with some showing slight decreases [25]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In May, the CPI decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, and the PPI decreased by 0.4% month-on-month [27]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of logs is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [27].

2025 年 6 月 9 日 股指期货将偏强震荡 白银期货再创上市以来新高 原油期 货将震荡偏强 玻璃、纯碱、PTA、PVC 期货将偏强震荡 黄 金、铜、螺纹钢、铁矿石、集运欧线期货将偏弱震荡 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： 股指期货将偏强震荡：IF2506 阻力位 3863 和 3879 点，支撑位 3848 和 3835 点；IH2506 阻力位 2689 和 2699 点，支撑位 2664 和 2653 点；IC2506 阻力位 5749 和 5790 点，支撑位 5700 和 5671 点；IM2506 阻力位 6168 和 6200 点，支撑位 6060 和 6030 点。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively presents the overnight and spot market conditions of multiple commodities such as palm oil, soybeans, and their related products, along with important fundamental information, macro - news, and capital flow data. It also analyzes the impact of weather on crop production and the influence of various economic data on the market [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overnight Market Conditions - The closing price of BMD palm oil 08 was 3917.00, with a previous - day increase of 0.33%. Brent 08 (ICE) closed at 66.65, up 2.08% previously and 0.56% overnight. NYMEX crude oil 07 closed at 64.77, up 2.40% previously and 0.39% overnight [1]. - The latest price of the US dollar index was 99.19, up 0.50%. The exchange rate of CNY/USD was 7.1845, down 0.03% [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Conditions - For DCE palm oil 2509, the spot price in North China was 8590, with a basis of 500 and no change from the previous day. In East China, it was 8490, with a basis of 400 and a decrease of 20 from the previous day [2]. - For DCE soybean meal 2509, in Shandong, the spot price was 2840, with a basis of - 159 [2]. 3.3 Important Fundamental Information - From June 1 - 5, 2025, Malaysian palm oil production increased by 19.09%, with a 19.16% increase in yield and a 0.01% decrease in oil extraction rate [6]. - As of the week ending June 3, CBOT soybean long - positions decreased by 3097 lots to 191916 lots, and short - positions increased by 9517 lots to 131969 lots [7]. - The FAO vegetable oil price index in May averaged 152.2 points, down 5.8 points (3.7%) month - on - month but still 19.1% higher than the same period last year [9]. 3.4 Macro - news International News - The US non - farm payrolls in May were 139,000, higher than the expected 130,000. The unemployment rate was 4.2%, in line with expectations [15]. - The eurozone's Q1 GDP annual rate revision was 1.5%, higher than the expected 1.2% [15]. Domestic News - On June 6, the central bank conducted 1350 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 1561 billion yuan on that day [17]. - China's central bank's gold reserves at the end of May were 73.83 million ounces, an increase of 60,000 ounces from the previous month [17]. 3.5 Key Information Analysis - Malaysia's palm oil ending inventory in April increased by 19.37% to 1.866 million tons, with a significant increase in production and the report's impact being negative [18]. - The USDA May supply - demand report increased US soybean exports in the 24/25 season by 25 million bushels to 1.85 billion bushels, and the ending inventory was estimated to be 350 million bushels [19]. 3.6 Capital Flow - On June 6, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 2.243 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 4.883 billion yuan in commodity futures and a net outflow of 7.127 billion yuan in stock index futures [22].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to experience high - level oscillations. The long - term strategic allocation value of gold is high due to the ongoing global order reshaping, while short - term uncertainties are numerous [1]. - Silver will have a strong oscillation. With gold's high - level adjustment, there is a potential for silver to make up for the price increase, but it requires the cooperation of multiple forces to continue rising [1]. - Copper will be in a high - level consolidation. Short - term copper long positions should take profit, and there is a risk of a high - level decline, but the long - term outlook for copper remains positive [1]. - Zinc will have a range - bound oscillation. In the short - term, it will be in a low - level oscillation, and in the long - term, it has a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand, so opportunities for shorting on rallies should be grasped [1]. - Lead and tin and aluminum and nickel will face pressure on rebounds. For lead, new production capacity is increasing supply while consumption is weak; for tin, short - term supply is tight but prices are under pressure after a rebound; for aluminum, inventory is accumulating and consumption is entering the off - season; for nickel, cost support is weakening and downstream inventory is accumulating [1]. - Industrial silicon and lithium carbonate should be shorted on rebounds. For industrial silicon, there are concerns about oversupply; for lithium carbonate, supply pressure is large and demand is in the off - season [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Gold prices oscillated at a high level because US employment data was low but consumption data was positive, and the Chinese central bank continued to buy gold, with no concentrated outbreak of systemic risk factors in the short - term [2]. - **Basic Logic**: US employment and consumption data were mixed. The Chinese central bank continued to increase its gold reserves for the seventh consecutive month. There was a potential for Russia to retaliate against Ukraine. In the short - term, geopolitical variables were large, and in the long - term, the trend of reducing dependence on the US dollar and the dual - loose fiscal and monetary policies remained unchanged, and the bull market was not over [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: For gold, pay attention to the support at 765 and control positions for long - term investment. For silver, short - term long positions can wait for an opportunity to enter, relying on the level of 8700 [4]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper oscillated and consolidated at a high level [5]. - **Industry Logic**: Overseas copper mine supply was tight. Domestic electrolytic copper production increased in May but was expected to decline in June. COMEX copper was draining global copper inventory, and there was a risk of a soft squeeze. Domestic social inventory decreased slightly, and overseas Russian copper flowed into domestic ports, causing the premium and spot premium to decline [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: With the better - than - expected US non - farm employment data and the slight rebound of the US dollar index, it is recommended to take profit on previous copper long positions at high levels. Be vigilant about the risk of a decline. In the long - term, there is confidence in the rise of copper prices. Short - term attention should be paid to the range of [77900, 79200] for Shanghai copper and [9600, 9800] dollars/ton for London copper [6]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Zinc was in a low - level consolidation, oscillating weakly [8]. - **Industry Logic**: In 2025, the zinc ore supply was expected to be looser. The domestic zinc ore processing fee increased in June. The output of refined zinc decreased in May but was expected to increase in June. Downstream demand weakened, and the start - up rate of zinc - related enterprises decreased, affected by the weak steel demand [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short - term, zinc will be in a low - level consolidation and oscillate weakly. In the long - term, with increasing supply and weak demand, opportunities for shorting on rallies should be grasped. Attention should be paid to the range of [22000, 22600] for Shanghai zinc and [2600, 2700] dollars/ton for London zinc [9]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices faced pressure on rebounds, and alumina prices declined again [10]. - **Industry Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, the overseas macro - trade environment was uncertain. The cost decreased in May, and inventory changes showed a mixed trend. The demand side entered the off - season. For alumina, the overseas bauxite supply was stable, the operating capacity increased in June, and the inventory accumulated slightly [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to short on rebounds for Shanghai aluminum, paying attention to inventory changes. The main operating range is [19800 - 20500]. Alumina will operate in a low - level range [11]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices faced pressure on rebounds, and stainless steel prices rebounded and then declined [12]. - **Industry Logic**: Overseas, the macro - environment was uncertain. The increase in the shipment of Philippine nickel ore and the decrease in Indonesian nickel ore prices weakened cost support. Domestically, the supply of refined nickel was still in an oversupply situation, and the social inventory was relatively high. For stainless steel, it entered the off - season, and the inventory pressure increased [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to short on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to downstream consumption. The main operating range for nickel is [119000 - 125000] [12]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2507 reduced positions for 5 consecutive days and closed slightly higher [13]. - **Industry Logic**: The supply pressure was still large, and although overseas imports decreased, domestic smelters did not significantly reduce production. The terminal demand entered the off - season, and only the energy storage end provided some support. The production of lithium carbonate recovered quickly, and the expectation of inventory accumulation increased, and the sustainability of the short - term rebound was questionable [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebounds in the range of [60000 - 61500] [14].

2025/6/6 14:11 【国富期货早间看点】MPOA 5 3.07% 19.79 20250606 【国富期货早间看点】MPOA马棕5月产量预估增长3.07% 美豆当周 净出口销售19.79万吨符合预期 20250606 2025年06月06日 07:31 上海 01 隔夜行情 | | 收盘价 | 上日 流跌幅(%) | 隔夜漆跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马棕油08(BMD) | 3921.00 | -1.16 | 0. 44 | | 布伦特08(ICE) | 65. 29 | 0.59 | -0. 61 | | 美原油07(NYMEX) | 63. 25 | 0. 81 | -0. 75 | | 美豆07 (CBOT) | 1050. 50 | 0. 55 | 0. 17 | | 美豆箱07(CBOT) | 296. 80 | -0. 03 | 0. 27 | | 美豆油07(CBOT) | 46. 62 | -0. 21 | -0. 51 | | | 最新价 | 流跌幅(%) | 十日漆跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美元 ...

新华财经纽约5月30日电（记者刘亚南）随着市场消化主要经济体公布的最新宏观经济数据，30日美元 兑欧元、英镑和瑞典克朗走强，美元兑瑞士法郎、日元和加元走弱，美元指数在隔夜市场上涨，当日上 午强势震荡，午后弱势盘整，尾盘时美元指数小幅上涨。 衡量美元对六种主要货币的美元指数当天上涨0.05%，在汇市尾市收于99.328。 美国商务部当日早间公布的数据显示，美国4月份国际商品贸易逆差金额为876亿美元，显著低于市场预 期的-1430亿美元和3月份修订后的-1623亿美元。 美国商务部发布的数据还显示，美国4月份个人消费支出价格指数环比增长0.1%，符合市场预期，而3 月份为环比持平；该指数同比涨幅为2.1%，符合市场预期，但低于3月份的2.3%。 德国联邦统计局在当日早些时候发布的初步数据显示，德国5月份消费者价格指数环比上涨0.1%，低于 市场预期的0.2%和4月份的0.4%，该指数同比涨幅为2.1%，与市场预期和4月份数值一致。 英国央行货币政策委员会外部成员阿伦·泰勒（Alan Taylor）在30日发表的专访中表示，由于美国总统 特朗普发起的贸易战带来经济增长风险，英国央行应该降息。 泰勒认为，英国4月份 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight LME copper fluctuated narrowly, rising slightly by 0.01% to $9,567 per ton; SHFE copper main contract fell by 0.18% to 77,850 yuan per ton. The US macro situation is mixed, with the April existing - home sales index falling year - on - year. LME copper inventory decreased, Comex inventory increased, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased. High copper prices and premiums made downstream procurement cautious. With a relatively stable macro situation and fundamental support, it's difficult for copper prices to drop significantly. The current weak market is due to the domestic off - season, and the de - stocking trend and high BACK structure are not suitable for unilateral short - selling. Copper may maintain the current oscillating trend [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina and Shanghai aluminum both fluctuated weakly. The spot price of alumina rose slightly, and the spot premium of aluminum ingots expanded. The cost center of aluminum has declined, and alumina enterprises are showing signs of resuming production. The turnover of aluminum ingots accelerated slightly before the holiday, and the downstream rigid demand for stocking was limited. Aluminum prices continued to adjust narrowly above 20,000 yuan and were not significantly affected by alumina [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight LME nickel rose by 1.99%, and SHFE nickel rose by 1.25%. LME and domestic SHFE nickel inventories decreased. The cost support of the stainless - steel industry chain is strong, but market transactions are weak, and inventory digestion is mainly for 200 - series and 300 - series. In the new energy sector, raw material supply has increased, but the demand for nickel sulfate is hard to increase. After a rapid decline, nickel prices may recover, but in the short term, they will still oscillate [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight LME copper rose slightly, SHFE copper fell. The US April existing - home sales index was far lower than expected. LME inventory decreased, Comex increased, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased. High prices and premiums made downstream procurement cautious. The macro situation is improving, and the fundamentals support copper prices. It's difficult for prices to drop significantly, and the current weak market is due to the off - season. Copper may oscillate, and attention should be paid to capital games [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina and Shanghai aluminum fluctuated weakly. The spot price of alumina rose slightly, and the spot premium of aluminum ingots expanded. The cost of aluminum decreased, and alumina enterprises may resume production. The turnover of aluminum ingots accelerated before the holiday, and downstream stocking was limited. Aluminum prices adjusted narrowly above 20,000 yuan [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight LME nickel and SHFE nickel rose. LME and domestic SHFE inventories decreased. The stainless - steel industry chain has strong cost support but weak transactions. In the new energy sector, supply increased while demand was weak. After a decline, nickel prices may recover but will oscillate in the short term [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - water copper decreased, and the premium decreased. The price of scrap copper remained unchanged, and the refined - scrap price difference decreased. LME and SHFE inventories changed, and the import loss increased [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead increased slightly, and the premium decreased. LME inventory remained unchanged, and SHFE inventory decreased [3]. - **Aluminum**: The prices of aluminum in Wuxi and Nanhai increased, and the spot premium expanded. LME inventory remained unchanged, and SHFE inventory decreased. The social inventory of alumina decreased [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased, and the premiums of Jinchuan nickel and 1 imported nickel relative to Wuxi increased. LME inventory remained unchanged, and SHFE inventory decreased. The social inventory of nickel decreased [4]. - **Zinc**: The main settlement price remained unchanged, and the near - far month spread increased. The spot price remained unchanged, and the domestic and imported spot premiums decreased. LME inventory remained unchanged, and SHFE inventory increased. The social inventory decreased [5]. - **Tin**: The main settlement price decreased, and the LME price decreased. The near - far month spread increased, and the spot price decreased. LME inventory remained unchanged, and SHFE inventory increased [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][9][12]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of the near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][18][21]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [24][26][28]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [31][33][35]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [37][39][41]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts show the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [44][46][48]. 3.4 Non - Research Content - The report introduces the members of the non - ferrous metals team, including Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, along with their educational backgrounds, positions, research directions, and professional qualifications [50][51][52].

Market Overview - Major US stock indices closed higher, driven by Nvidia's strong earnings, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 117.03 points to 42215.73, a 0.28% increase; S&P 500 rose 23.62 points to 5912.17, a 0.40% increase; and Nasdaq Composite gained 74.93 points to 19175.87, a 0.39% increase [1] - The US Federal Appeals Court temporarily suspended a lower court's ruling that prohibited the enforcement of several tariff executive orders, reflecting ongoing trade policy developments [1][2] Company Performance - Nvidia's stock rose 3.2% following its quarterly earnings report, which exceeded market expectations, marking a year-to-date increase of 3.6% [1] - Boeing's stock increased by 3.3% as the CEO announced plans to raise the monthly production of the 737 MAX jets to 42 units in the coming months, with a further increase planned for early 2026 [3] - Best Buy's stock fell 7.3% after the company lowered its full-year same-store sales and profit forecasts, citing concerns that tariff factors may suppress consumer willingness to purchase high-priced items [3] Economic Data - The US GDP for Q1 was revised to a contraction of 0.2%, better than the previous estimate of -0.3% [2] - Initial jobless claims rose by 14,000 to 240,000, exceeding expectations of 230,000, indicating slight weakness in the labor market [2] - The S&P 500 index has risen 5.7% in May, with the Dow up 3.5% and Nasdaq soaring 9.5%, reflecting strong corporate earnings amid easing trade tensions [2] Commodity Market - International oil prices declined, with WTI crude futures down $0.90 to $60.94 per barrel, a 1.46% drop; Brent crude futures fell $0.97 to $63.35 per barrel, a 1.51% decrease [3] - Gold prices increased due to safe-haven demand, with COMEX gold futures rising $21.50 to $3343.9 per ounce, a 0.65% increase [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The alumina fundamentals may be in a stage of slightly increasing supply and stable demand, with a suggestion of trading lightly with a weak oscillation, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] - The fundamentals of Shanghai aluminum are currently in a stage of sufficient supply and slowing demand growth, with an option market sentiment leaning towards bearishness. It is recommended to trade lightly with an oscillatory approach and control the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 20,095 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 2,991 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan [2] - The spread between this month and next month's contracts for Shanghai aluminum was 70 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; for alumina, it was 60 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan [2] - The main - contract positions of Shanghai aluminum were 203,561 lots, up 1,088 lots; for alumina, they were 371,302 lots, down 9,474 lots [2] - LME aluminum cancelled warrants were 58,850 tons, down 3,000 tons; the total alumina inventory was 219,801 tons, down 31,353 tons [2] - The three - month LME electrolytic aluminum quotation was 2,483 US dollars/ton, up 17 US dollars; the LME aluminum inventory was 381,575 tons, down 3,000 tons [2] - The net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai aluminum were 2,678 lots, up 6,026 lots; the Shanghai - London ratio was 8.09, down 0.03 [2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai aluminum were 53,542 tons, down 1,025 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory was 141,289 tons, up 150 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The Shanghai Wumaoh aluminum premium was 100 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum price was 20,140 yuan/ton, up 230 yuan [2] - The LME aluminum premium was 20,140 yuan/ton, up 230 yuan; the alumina basis was 269 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan; the electrolytic aluminum basis was 255 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan [2] - The pre - baked anode price in the northwest region was 5,540 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The alumina production was 732.30 million tons, down 15.22 million tons; the national alumina operating rate was 78.87%, down 4.73 percentage points [2] - The alumina capacity utilization rate was 81.54%, down 6.74 percentage points; the demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) was 693.70 million tons, down 30.02 million tons [2] - The alumina supply - demand balance was - 9.93 million tons, down 13.48 million tons; the alumina export volume was 26.00 million tons, down 4.00 million tons [2] - The alumina import volume was 1.07 million tons, down 0.05 million tons; the WBMS aluminum supply - demand balance was 27.72 million tons, down 1.79 million tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The primary aluminum import volume was 250,476.81 tons, up 28,656.52 tons; the primary aluminum export volume was 13,672.79 tons, up 4,972.94 tons [2] - The total electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 4,518.20 million tons, up 1.00 million tons; the electrolytic aluminum operating rate was 97.60%, up 0.10 percentage points [2] - The aluminum product production was 576.40 million tons, down 21.77 million tons; the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 52.00 million tons, up 1.00 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The aluminum alloy production was 152.80 million tons, down 12.70 million tons; the aluminum alloy export volume was 1.66 million tons, down 0.16 million tons [2] - The automobile production was 260.40 million vehicles, down 44.06 million vehicles; the national real - estate prosperity index was 93.86, down 0.09 [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum was 11.13%, down 0.10 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 15.18%, down 0.04 percentage points [2] - The implied volatility of the main at - the - money IV was 9.97%, up 0.0084; the option call - put ratio was 0.69, down 0.0150 [2] 3.7 Industry News - In April, the profits of China's industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 3% year - on - year, 0.4 percentage points faster than in March, with new - kinetic - energy industries growing rapidly [2] - China's key - city real - estate market showed a bottoming - out and stabilizing trend, with new and second - hand housing transactions increasing in the first four months [2] - Many car companies launched price - cut promotions, compressing the profit margins of upstream enterprises to 10% with a 120 - day payment period [2] - US consumer confidence index rose from 85.7 in April to 98 in May, higher than all economists' expectations [2] - The US March FHFA housing price index decreased by 0.1% month - on - month; the S&P/CS20 major cities' housing price index increased by 4.1% year - on - year [2] - The European Central Bank's Holzmann suggested postponing further interest - rate cuts until September [2] - The US and the EU may accelerate trade negotiations, and some countries' tariffs may be reduced to 10% or lower [2] - The Guinea Alumina Company hopes to resume friendly negotiations with the Guinea government to lift restrictions on bauxite mining [2]